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Aurora Cannabis Inc ACB (XTSE) Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 10 Nov 2020 06:24, UTC | Page 1 of 17 Aurora Cannabis Inc ACB (XTSE) Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/Fair Value Trailing Dividend Yield % Forward Dividend Yield % Market Cap (Bil) Industry Stewardship QQQQ 11.01 CAD 34.00 CAD 0.32 — 0.00 2.35 Drug Manufacturers Standard 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 - Specialty & Generic 18:10, UTC 18:05, UTC Morningstar Pillars Analyst Quantitative Important Disclosure: Economic Moat None None The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), Valuation QQQQ Undervalued and Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please visit http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures Uncertainty Extreme Very High Financial Health — Moderate Aurora Continues to Cut Costs and Improve Path to Profitability; Raising Source: Morningstar Equity Research FVE to $26 Quantitative Valuation ACB Business Strategy and Outlook CAN d Kristoffer Inton, Analyst, 22 September 2020 Analyst Note Undervalued Fairly Valued Overvalued Aurora cultivates and sells cannabis predominantly in Kristoffer Inton, Analyst, 10 November 2020 Canada but also exports into the global medical market. Aurora Cannabis’ fiscal first-quarter results were Current 5-Yr Avg Sector Country Price/Quant Fair Value 0.52 0.80 0.82 0.75 highlighted by continued selling, general, and Price/Earnings — 140.1 26.5 15.2 Aurora considers itself a medical cannabis company first administrative expense reduction and strong international Forward P/E -8.2 — 11.3 10.8 but has benefited from the legalization of recreational medical revenue growth. The shares closed 15% higher Price/Cash Flow — — 18.4 8.4 cannabis in Canada in 2018. Recreational now accounts on Nov. 9, extending an industrywide rally that began last Price/Free Cash Flow — — 27.3 14.9 Trailing Dividend Yield% — — 1.50 3.71 for nearly 50% of gross sales and has been rising, although week amid anticipation that Democrat Joe Biden would Source: Morningstar this share is slightly lower than peers. We expect the win the U.S. presidency and spur momentum for the medical market to shrink due to recreational legalization budding industry. Bulls Say but forecast roughly 10% average annual growth for the OAurora has rationalized its production facilities entire Canadian market through 2030, driven by the Total cannabis net revenue was nearly CAD 68 million, and head count, significantly reducing its cash burn. conversion of black-market consumers into the legal beating management’s guidance of CAD 60 million-64 OCannabis cultivation is complicated, including market and new cannabis consumers. million, but it was a 1% decrease from the prior quarter. challenging operational ramp-ups and optimization. Total kilograms of cannabis sold decreased 4% from the Aurora’s strategic focus on its cultivation operations Aurora has expanded its global medical exports, currently prior quarter, offset by more than a 3% increase in the will help it achieve lower production costs than peers. shipping to more than 20 countries. The global market average net selling price. OAurora’s agreements with three major Canadian looks lucrative, given higher realized prices and the pharmacy chains strengthen its medical cannabis growing acceptance of cannabis' medical benefits. Volume weakness was driven by a 16% drop in dried business. Exporters must pass strict regulations to enter markets, cannabis. However, this appears to represent some mix protecting early entrants like Aurora. Partially offsetting shift, given a 31% increase in Aurora’s Cannabis 2.0 Bears Say the global markets’ potential for Canadian producers are product revenue and a 4% overall increase in medical threats of future production from countries with cheaper cannabis net revenue. Medical revenue was driven largely OTechnological and process-based cost advantages labor--the single largest cost. Efforts to expand production by high-margin international medical sales, up 41% over that are not protected by patents are eventually into Denmark, Portugal, and Uruguay should help offset the prior quarter. We forecast roughly 20% average annual replicable. Aurora’s focus on lowering its production its cost-disadvantaged Canadian production. We forecast growth for the global medical cannabis market through costs may be imitated by competitors. roughly 20% average annual growth through 2030. 2030. OAurora lacks a strategic alcohol, tobacco, or pharmaceutical partner that can help it expand We think the U.S. will change federal law to recognize Aurora has continued to reduce SG&A, recording roughly beyond simple cannabis cultivation or provide states’ choices on legality within their borders, unlocking CAD 44 million, down CAD 14.5 million from the prior necessary funding when capital market access is the fastest-growing and largest potential cannabis quarter. tight. market, which we estimate will be more than 5 times O The existence of the black market limits the larger than the Canadian market. At present, Aurora would We’ve updated our model with the latest results, but our potential price increases Aurora can push through to not benefit from a change in U.S. federal law on THC forecast is largely intact. We’ve raised our fair value consumers. cannabis, as its only exposure is through hemp-derived estimate due to time value of money effects to $26/CAD CBD products through its May 2020 acquisition of Reliva. 34 per share from $25/CAD 33 for no-moat Aurora. We maintain our extreme uncertainty rating, given Aurora’s Aurora has not entered a major strategic partnership with high dependence on capital markets and lack of a strategic a large alcohol, tobacco, or pharmaceutical company. This investor. forces it to rely more heavily on equity market access while its peers can rely on the deep pockets of a large partner The shares trade roughly 57% below our fair value for capital. This raises the risk of massive equity dilution estimate, but we reiterate our extreme uncertainty rating. to avoid running out of cash. Aurora’s financial position continues to warrant a very © Morningstar 2020. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall ? not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report. Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 2 of 17 Aurora Cannabis Inc ACB (XTSE) Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/Fair Value Trailing Dividend Yield % Forward Dividend Yield % Market Cap (Bil) Industry Stewardship QQQQ 11.01 CAD 34.00 CAD 0.32 — 0.00 2.35 Drug Manufacturers Standard 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 10 Nov 2020 - Specialty & Generic 18:10, UTC 18:05, UTC Close Competitors Currency (Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Operating Margin TTM/PE governments on national, state, and local levels reeling Canopy Growth Corp CGC USD 9,133 301 -234.41 0.00 from budget problems, the emergence of cannabis as a legal product has come to be viewed as a funding panacea. Curaleaf Holdings Inc CURLF USD 5,766 351 5.94 0.00 For example, Washington state has implemented a 37% Cronos Group Inc CRON USD 2,554 37 -485.53 45.25 tax rate on recreational cannabis. We see this as early Tilray Inc TLRY USD 1,349 201 -121.34 0.00 evidence that governments, with full control over large margin of safety. Nevertheless, we think the licensing, will attempt to maximize their economics. company has made significant progress reducing its cash burn and will continue its path to profitability. All else equal, on the other end of the value chain, consumers would likely bear any government tax increase, Economic Moat like what we would observe in the cigarette market. However, we believe the existence of a large and Kristoffer Inton, Analyst, 10 November 2020 We assign Aurora a no-moat rating. Although there accessible black market effectively serves as a price appear to be a few potential sources of competitive ceiling that consumers are willing to pay. When California advantage through intangible assets and cost advantage, legalized recreational cannabis with a relatively high tax, we see several barriers that prevent Aurora from earning the legal market shrank as consumers moved back into an economic moat. the black market. Regulation Intangible Assets We see companies like Aurora involved in the cultivation and selling of cannabis as having the least leverage We believe the most likely moat source would come in against both the government and consumers. Although the form of intangibles stemming from regulation. we’d anticipate there could be years of economic profit Cultivators and dispensaries require government licenses generation when supply has been slow to respond with to operate in every market where recreational and/or expansions, we do not have confidence that cannabis medical cannabis is legalized.
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