FEBRUARY 2019 Ellen Hanak, Water and the Future of Alvar Escriva-Bou, Brian Gray, the San Joaquin Valley Sarge Green, Thomas Harter, Jelena Jezdimirovic, Jay Lund, Josué Medellín-Azuara, Peter Moyle, Nathaniel Seavy Supported with funding from the S. D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation, the TomKat Foundation, the US Department of Agriculture, the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the Water Foundation © 2019 Public Policy Institute of California PPIC is a public charity. It does not take or support positions on any ballot measures or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor does it endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Short sections of text, not to exceed three paragraphs, may be quoted without written permission provided that full attribution is given to the source. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California. SUMMARY CONTENTS The San Joaquin Valley—California’s largest agricultural region and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—is in a time of great change. Acronyms 5 The valley is ground zero for many of California’s most difficult water Chapter 1. Introduction 6 management problems—including groundwater overdraft, drinking water contamination, and declines in habitat and native species. Chapter 2. Balancing Water Supplies Local water supplies are limited, particularly in the southern half of the region. and Demands 14 To irrigate their crops, many farmers use water imported from the Sacramento– Chapter 3. San Joaquin Delta. But in many places farmers have also relied on groundwater Addressing Groundwater Quality Challenges 38 overdraft—pumping groundwater in excess of the rate at which it is replenished. Chapter 4. Worsening droughts, increasing regulations to protect endangered native Fostering Water and fishes, and growing demand by Southern California for Delta imports have Land Use Transitions compounded surface water scarcity. to Benefit People and Nature 57 The state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires local Chapter 5. water users to bring groundwater use to sustainable levels by the early 2040s. Roadmap to a Better This will have a broad impact on valley agriculture and the regional economy Future 82 in coming years—likely including some permanent idling of farmland. References 89 About the Authors 97 This report explores three key challenges facing the San Joaquin Valley and reviews the most promising approaches to address them: Acknowledgments 98 . Balancing water supplies and demands. To close the groundwater deficit, groundwater sustainability agencies in the valley’s overdrafted basins will have to augment supplies, reduce demands, or use some Technical appendices to combination of these two approaches. A range of options are under this report are available on the PPIC website. consideration but they are not equally effective or practical. Addressing groundwater quality challenges. Poor groundwater quality impairs drinking water supplies in disadvantaged rural communities, reduces long-term agricultural prosperity, and degrades ecosystems. Providing safe drinking water is an urgent priority. Over the longer term, parties will also need to manage water quantity and quality together, to take advantage of synergies and avoid unintended consequences. The necessary coordination will be challenging because the various programs addressing valley water quality issues are carried out by numerous local and regional entities, whose lines of responsibility and geographic boundaries do not neatly align. Fostering beneficial water and land use transitions. Effectively addressing water scarcity and the resulting land use changes in the San Joaquin Valley offers opportunities to put lands coming out of production to good use—and gain “more pop per drop” from limited water resources. Multiple-benefit approaches to water and land PPIC.ORG/WATER Water and the Future of the San Joaquin Valley 3 management can enhance groundwater recharge and improve air and water quality. They can also promote healthier soils, new recreational opportunities, additional flood protection, improved habitat, and new revenue streams for private landowners engaging in conservation-oriented management. Addressing these complex and intertwined issues requires significant changes in water and land management and a major ramp-up in cooperation and coordination among a wide circle of stakeholders. Pursuing solutions that deliver multiple benefits will boost the chances of success overall. The entire region—and California as a whole—will benefit if solutions to these challenges are cost-effective and support the valley’s economy while improving public health and the natural environment. An overview of this report is available here. PPIC.ORG/WATER Water and the Future of the San Joaquin Valley 4 ACRONYMS af acre-foot (acre-feet) CEQA California Environmental Quality Act CREP Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program C2VSim California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation model CVHM Central Valley Hydrologic Model CVP Central Valley Project CV-SALTS Central Valley Salinity Alternatives for Long-Term Sustainability initiative DWR Department of Water Resources ECHO Enforcement and Compliance History Online data portal (US Environmental Protection Agency) EQIP Environmental Quality Incentives Program Flood-MAR Flood Managed Aquifer Recharge FSA Farm Service Agency GDP gross domestic product GSA groundwater sustainability agency GSP groundwater sustainability plan HCP Habitat Conservation Plan HRTW Human Right to Water data portal (State Water Board) ILRP Irrigated Lands Regulatory Program IMPLAN Impact Analysis for Planning model maf million acre-feet MCL Maximum Contaminant Level mg/l milligrams per liter NCCP Natural Community Conservation Plan NMFS National Marine Fisheries Service NPDES National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service PEIR programmatic environmental impact report RCD resource conservation district SDWA Safe Drinking Water Act SGMA Sustainable Groundwater Management Act SNCP Salt and Nitrate Control Program SWP State Water Project taf thousand acre-feet TCP trichloropropane USDA US Department of Agriculture WDR Waste Discharge Requirements program (Regional Water Board) PPIC.ORG/WATER Water and the Future of the San Joaquin Valley 5 Chapter 1. Introduction The San Joaquin Valley produces more than half of California’s agricultural output. Its diverse crops and animal products are an important part of the nation’s—and the world’s—food supply. To produce such bounty, the valley depends upon having reliable water supplies. Yet this reliability is decreasing, particularly in times of drought. Today, local and imported water resources support more than 5 million acres of irrigated farmland, a population of more than 4 million, and an economy that generates an average of nearly $160 billion in gross domestic product (GDP).1 Farming is the region’s main economic driver—providing roughly one-fifth of regional GDP and employment—and its predominant water user. Like many agriculturally dependent regions, the valley faces significant socioeconomic challenges, including a high rate of unemployment and pockets of extreme rural poverty. These challenges increase when the farm economy suffers. Stress on the valley’s water system is growing. Local supplies are limited, particularly in the southern half of the region. To irrigate their crops, many farmers use water imported from Northern California through the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. But in many places they have also relied on groundwater overdraft—pumping groundwater in excess of the rate at which it is replenished. The 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires local water users to bring use to sustainable levels by the early 2040s (Box 1.1). SGMA will have a broad impact on valley agriculture in coming years. It will spur investments in new water supplies—but also likely entail idling of more than half a million acres of farmland. With the largest groundwater deficit in the state, the valley is ground zero for implementing this law. In addition to water shortages, the valley must also respond to a variety of water quality issues. The region is a hot spot for unsafe drinking water, a problem that is most acute for small, poor, rural communities. Increased groundwater pumping has also caused many of the shallow wells these communities rely on to go dry. Lasting remedies are urgently needed to provide safe drinking water to all valley residents. Another concern is the buildup of nitrogen and salts in groundwater and soils. Nitrogen loading from fertilizers, and especially manure from dairies, is contributing to drinking water contamination. Salt buildup is threatening long-term agricultural productivity. Under new regulatory requirements, valley farmers must address these issues in conjunction with ending groundwater overdraft—and the solutions are costly. In these changing times, land and water management present other complex challenges for the region. The San Joaquin Valley is the most altered non-urban environment in California—with one of the highest concentrations of endangered species in the country. Much of the valley floor is now managed for intensive crop production, and many native species are in decline. The valley’s remaining riverine, wetland, and