Structural Transformation and Industrial Policy
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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT VIRTUAL INSTITUTE TEACHING MATERIAL ON STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND INDUSTRIAL POLICY New York and Geneva, 2016 NOTE The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations. The designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but acknowledgement of the UNCTAD Virtual Institute is requested, together with a reference to the document number. A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD Virtual Institute, Division on Globalization and Development Strategies, Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. This publication has been edited externally. The UNCTAD Virtual Institute (http://vi.unctad.org) is a capacity-building and networking programme that aims to strengthen teaching and research of international trade and development issues at academic institutions in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, and to foster links between research and policymaking. For further information, please contact [email protected]. UNCTAD/GDS/2016/1 Copyright © United Nations, 2016 All rights reserved ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The teaching material on structural transformation and industrial policy was developed by the UNCTAD Virtual Institute, under the overall guidance of Vlasta Macku. The text was researched and written by Francesca Guadagno from the Virtual Institute, with supervision by Piergiuseppe Fortunato of UNCTAD’s Division on Globalization and Development Strategies. Contributions were also provided by Milford Bateman of Saint Mary’s University (Canada), Codrina Rada of the University of Utah (United States) and Kasper Vrolijk of the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London (United Kingdom). The material benefitted from comments by Richard Kozul- Wright, Director of UNCTAD’s Division on Globalization and Development Strategies. The text was English-edited by David Einhorn, and the design and layout were created by Hadrien Gliozzo. The financial contribution of the Government of Finland is gratefully acknowledged. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS NOTE ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii TABLE OF CONTENTS iv LIST OF FIGURES vi LIST OF TABLES vii LIST OF BOXES vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ix INTRODUCTION 1 The structural transformation process: trends, theory, and empirical findings 3 1 Introduction 4 2 Conceptual framework and trends of structural transformation 4 2.1 Definitions and key concepts 4 2.2 Measures of structural transformation 10 2.3 Global trends in structural transformation 11 1 2.4 Structural transformation and economic growth 17 3 Review of the literature 20 module 3.1 Structural transformation in development theories 20 3.2 Empirical literature on structural transformation 29 3.3 Premature deindustrialization and the (possible) role of services as the new engine of economic growth 37 4 Structural transformation and development 40 4.1 Structural transformation, employment and poverty 41 4.2 Structural transformation and human development 43 5 Conclusions 47 Exercises and questions for discussion 48 ANNEX An illustration of how to decompose labour productivity growth and discuss empirical results 50 REFERENCES 57 Industrial policy: a theoretical and practical framework to analyse and apply industrial policy 67 1 Introduction 67 2 What is industrial policy? 68 2.1 Defining industrial policy 68 2.2 Industrial policy instruments 71 2 2.3 Implementing industrial policy 73 3 Why adopt an industrial policy? 75 3.1 A historical perspective 75 module 3.2 Arguments in favour of industrial policy 82 3.3 Arguments against industrial policy 86 4 Some cases of industrial policies 88 4.1 The state as regulator and enabler 88 4.2 The state as financier 89 4.3 The state as producer and consumer 95 4.4 The state as innovator 98 5 Current challenges to industrialization and industrial policy in developing countries 105 5.1 Challenges from internal conditions 105 5.2 Challenges from external conditions 108 6 Conclusions 114 Exercises and questions for discussion 115 ANNEX Industrial policy at the local level 117 REFERENCES 120 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Relative labour productivity by sector, 1991–2010 5 Figure 2 Relationship between inter-sectoral productivity gaps and average labour productivity, 2005 6 Figure 3 Share of employment and labour productivity by industry, 14 emerging economies, 2005 7 Figure 4 Industrial concentration and income per capita 8 Figure 5 Sectoral shares of employment and value added – selected developed countries, 1800–2000 12 Figure 6 Sectoral shares of employment – selected developed and developing countries, 1980–2000 14 Figure 7 Sectoral shares of nominal value added – selected developed and developing countries, 1980–2000 15 Figure 8 Manufacturing shares of value added in GDP, 1962–2012 (per cent) 16 Figure 9 Structural changes in the composition of employment in agriculture and annual growth rates of GDP 18 per capita, 1991–2012 (per cent and percentage points) Figure 10 Structural changes in the composition of employment in industry and annual growth rates of GDP 18 per capita, 1991–2012 (per cent and percentage points) Figure 11 Structural changes in the composition of employment in services and annual growth rates of GDP 19 per capita, 1991–2012 (per cent and percentage points) Figure 12 Economic growth and changes in the share of manufacturing value added in GDP, 1991–2012 20 (per cent and percentage points) Figure 13 Convergence in manufacturing labour productivity, sub-Saharan Africa 30 Figure 14 Decomposition of labour productivity growth by country group, 1990–2005 (percentage points) 32 Figure 15 Relationship between EXPY and per capita incomes in 1992 34 Figure 16 The changing relationship between manufacturing employment and income 38 Figure 17 The relationship between the peak of the manufacturing employment share in the past and GDP 39 per capita in 2005-2010 Figure 18 Relationship between manufacturing employment and poverty 43 Figure 19 Decomposition of aggregate labour productivity growth by country groups (percentage points) 44 Figure 20 Structural transformation and progress in poverty reduction, 1991–2012 45 Figure 21 Structural transformation and progress in primary education enrolment, 1991–2012 45 Figure 22 Structural transformation and achievement of Millennium Development Goal targets, 1991–2012 46 Figure 23 Poverty and growth nexus, dynamic and lagging economies, 1991–2012 46 Figure 24 Education and growth nexus, dynamic and lagging economies, 1991–2012 47 Figure A1 Average annual growth rates of real value added per capita, 1991–2012 (per cent) 51 Figure A2 Decomposition of aggregate labour productivity growth by country groups, 1991–2012 53 (percentage points and per cent) Figure A3 Decomposition of aggregate labour productivity growth in least developed countries, 1991–2012 53 (percentage points and per cent) Figure 25 A visual representation of industrial policy categories 71 Figure 26 Development bank lending as a share of GDP, 1960–1990 (per cent) 92 Figure 27 Development bank lending as a share of GDP, 2012 (per cent) 93 Figure 28 Average maturities of BNDES loans compared to maturities of major banks in Brazil, 2012 (per cent) 93 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Value-added shares of agriculture, industry, manufacturing, and services, 1950–2005 (per cent) 16 Table 2 Impact of global value chains on structural transformation in developing economies 26 Table 3 Decomposing value in global value chains: the case of German cars, 1995 and 2008 (per cent) 35 Table 4 Profit margins of main firms contributing to the production of an Ipod, 2005 (per cent) 36 Table A1 Sectoral composition of employment, 1991–2012 (per cent and percentage points) 51 Table A2 Sectoral composition of output, 1991–2012 (per cent and percentage points) 52 Table A3 Sectoral contributions to aggregate labour productivity growth, 1991–2011 (percentage points and per cent) 56 Table A4 Correlation analysis of aggregate labour productivity growth and its components 56 Table 5 Industrial policies in low-income economies 72 Table 6 Industrial policies in middle-income economies 72 Table 7 Key operational principles of industrial policy 73 Table 8 A summary of the historical debate on industrial policy 82 Table 16.1 Defining science, technology, and innovation policy 99 Table 9 Implications of global value chains for industrial policies 110 LIST OF BOXES Box 1 Measures of productivity and the meaning of productivity in the services sector 7 Box 2 The concept of comparative advantage 9 Box 3 Sectoral composition of employment and output 11 Box 4 Types and examples of production linkages 28 Box 5 Shift-share decomposition method 32 Box 6 Structural transformation and demographic and labour market changes 41 Box A1 The Divisia index decomposition of labour productivity and employment growth 54 Box 7 The World Bank report on East Asian economic growth and public policies 78 Box 8 The role of Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry 79 Box 9 Measures of state capacity 87 Box 10 The key role of BNDES in realizing Brazil’s industrial policy objectives 91 Box 11 The role of the China Development Bank in China’s “going out” strategy 92 Box