The Growth-Employment Nexus 6
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The Growth-Employment Nexus 6 Iraq experienced steady and strong GDP growth, av- benefits and working hours. Earnings have dispropor- eraging a rate of 7 percent per year over the 2007 to tionately increased among public sector employees. A 2012 period but only modest poverty reduction; im- private sector worker still earned almost 30 percent less plying a negative but weak relationship between eco- than public workers in 2012, before including other nomic growth and poverty reduction. For economic benefits associated with public sector employment. growth to have a positive impact on poverty, it needs to generate employment and income for those who need it The expansion of the public sector has adversely affect- the most. Recent economic growth was driven mainly ed the labor market in Iraq by creating economy wide by growth in mining or oil, which represents half of disincentives to labor force participation, especially for the total GDP, the bulk of government revenues, and the youth. An increase of one percentage point in the almost all export revenues. However, it employs a tiny public employment rate of the governorate where the share of the labor force (1%) and has a low output- youth was born contributes to a significant reduction elasticity of employment (–0.2). Across other sectors, (around 50 and 40 percent for 2007 and 2012 respec- in general, employment generation has remained low tively) in their participation rate, keeping everything despite output growth. In contrast, earnings are much else constant. This disincentive to labor force partici- more responsive to output growth in general and for pation is also significant among adults. In general, the mining sector in particular; although the latter reduces the participation rate of both adult women is not likely to directly benefit the poor. Earnings have and men by about 30 percent, holding everything grown at an annual rate of 8.3 percent in the min- else constant. For women, in addition, a significant ing sector, which employs 1 percent of the labor force, gender wage gap further disincentivizes labor force compared to –2.5 percent in agriculture or 0.8 percent participation. in construction, which employ more than a fifth of the population. The nature of public sector expansion has also altered the incentives for education. With the expansion in Although more than 750,000 new jobs were created public sector jobs for less educated men, the returns to over the five year period, these were not enough to ab- education in the public sector level off after primary sorb all new participants in the labor market, and school, and do not pick up again until after tertiary four-fifths of these new jobs were generated by the public education. In 2012, an average male in the working- sector. The expansion of public sector employment has age population received 20 percent more in the public increased the incentives for ‘wait unemployment’ and sector by having complete primary education relative low labor force participation. Having a public sector to being illiterate. However, the premium for getting job translates into having a “better” job relative to the an additional level is almost negligible thereafter un- private sector on several dimensions including wages, til he completes tertiary education. 126 THE UNFULFILLED PROMISE OF OIL AND GROWTH The type of employment growth generated by Iraq over for employment creation for any given growth rate the last five years has only weakly impacted poverty, because its employs a tiny share of the labor force and the expansion of public sector employment has oc- (1%) and has a low output-elasticity of employment curred in sectors where a minority of the poor work. (–0.2).39 This implies that a 1 percent increase in For instance, one-quarter of the poor work in Con- output will generate a 0.2 percent reduction in em- struction, where only 7 percent of jobs are public sec- ployment in the mining sector. Given the growth rate tor jobs. This does not imply more intervention of the experienced in mining since 2007, this means that public sector in these sectors but the contrary. In fact, employment in the mining sector has reduced by 1.3 the expansion of the public sector has adversely affected percent or 0.07 percent of the labor force. the labor market in Iraq by creating economy wide disincentives to labor force participation; inhibiting This pattern is evident not only in mining but the development of the private sector; and distorting across almost all economic sectors. Even when a incentives to invest in education. sector’s GDP has grown over the period, employ- ment generation has remained low. This implies that employment is relatively inelastic to output The Links between Growth and growth overall (Table 28). Among sectors which Employment in Iraq have grown between 2007 and 2012, manufactur- ing is one of the most responsive sectors in terms As mentioned in Chapter 2, Iraq experienced of employment. It employs 10 percent of the labor steady and strong GDP growth, averaging a rate force and it has one of the highest output elastici- of 7 percent per year over the 2007 to 2012 period ties of employment of 0.6. Having experienced an but only modest poverty reduction (3.8 percentage annual growth rate of 9.5 percent over the period, points over the entire five year period). This points this indicates that employment in manufacturing to a negative but weak relationship between eco- sector has increased by 6 percent, or 2.4 percent of nomic growth and poverty reduction, which may the labor force. be due to weak links between economic growth and employment or between employment and earnings, In contrast, earnings are much more responsive to or both. On the other hand, the decomposition output growth in general and for the mining sec- analysis from Chapter 5 shows that the growth of tor in particular; although the latter is not likely to labor income is the most important contributory directly benefit the poor. Earnings have grown at factor to poverty reduction, but that in Iraq, it an annual rate of 8.3 percent in the mining sector, was not driven by employment growth, but rather which employs 1 percent of the labor force, com- by growth in earnings. Thus, an economy where pared to –2.5 percent in agriculture or 0.8 percent growth goes hand in hand with job creation and in- in construction, which employ more than a fifth of come generation, i.e., one where the links between the population (Table 28). Moreover, the output growth and welfare are strong, has the potential elasticity of earnings is also relatively high in pub- to deliver significant poverty reduction. And so, lic administration, the financial services sector, and we turn our attention to the relationship between other services, all of which are primarily public sec- growth, employment and earnings in Iraq. tor jobs. Within the private sector, only transport, storage and communications has a relatively high For economic growth to have a positive impact on earnings elasticity; and accounts for 11 percent of poverty, it needs to generate employment and in- employment. come for those who need it the most. Recent eco- nomic growth was driven mainly by growth in mining 39 We are referring to the direct effect of mining on employ- which represents almost half of the total GDP. How- ment; we are not considering the spillover effect on other ever, of all the sectors, this has the lowest potential sectors. THE GROWTHEMPLOYMENT NEXUS 127 TABLE 28: Growth, Employment and Labor Income Relations Employment Earnings Annual Annual Output Annual Output growth rate Labor Share growth rate elasticity of growth rate elasticity of Economic Activities (%) 2007–12 (%) 2012 2007–12 labor 2007–12 earnings Agriculture & shing 2.69 8.94 –4.78 –1.78 –2.54 –0.95 Mining & quarrying 7.80 1.02 –1.29 –0.17 8.26 1.06 Manufacturing Industry 9.45 9.67 5.96 0.63 4.74 0.50 Utilities 16.08 2.21 1.87 0.12 5.94 0.37 Construction 15.30 13.63 2.96 0.19 0.82 0.05 Transport, storage & communication 7.96 11.43 3.65 0.46 6.65 0.84 Commerce and retail 12.39 15.61 0.17 0.01 6.93 0.56 Financial, insurance 3.61 14.37 15.51 4.30 3.23 0.89 Public administration 5.66 17.23 –2.81 –0.50 6.95 1.23 Other services 4.00 5.89 1.90 0.47 4.64 1.16 Total 7.09 100.00 1.95 0.27 4.77 0.67 Source: Authors’ calculations, IHSES 2007 and 2012. New Jobs in the Economy: Public challenge for the labor market particularly in an Versus Private Sector economy with relatively weak links between growth and employment. Moreover, the relatively small im- Notwithstanding the weak relationship between provement in human capital of younger generations economic growth and employment, more than 750 poses another challenge for the country. thousand new jobs were created over the five year period. However, these were not enough to absorb The private sector contributed around 60 percent of all new participants in the labor market. In the face total jobs in Iraq in 2007 and 2012. However, it did of significant labor market discouragement, this has not lead new job creation: in the last five years 80 per- translated into stagnant participation and employ- cent of the new jobs were generated by the public sec- ment rates for the working age population during tor. While in 2007, public jobs accounted for 35 per- the period.40 cent of total jobs in Iraq, five years later, their share jumped to almost 40 percent (Figure 143 panel A).