The Lincoln National Forest and the Economic Stability of South Central New Mexico

Range Improvement Task Force • Report 68 The Lincoln National Forest and the Economic Stability of South Central New Mexico Range Improvement Task Force Cooperative Extension Service / Agricultural Experiment Station College of Agriculture and Home Economics The Lincoln National Forest and the Economic Stability of South Central New Mexico Roy D. Seawolf, Nicholas K. Ashcroft Jr., John M. Fowler 1 ABSTRACT of each industry was analyzed according to The Lincoln National Forest is the epi-center the following criteria: of economic activity and an indispensable component of the regional economy of south • What factors affect the growth of the central New Mexico, specifically the counties industry? of Chaves, Eddy, Lincoln and Otero. Were • How does the industry respond the Lincoln National Forest to be closed to to negative internal and external consumptive economic activity, as has been economic shocks? recommended by numerous articles and media broadcasts, how would this affect It was concluded that dispersed the regional economy and New Mexico as a recreation, logging, and livestock grazing can whole? and should co-exist and should not have to It is apparent that the forest economy is compete for consideration within the Lincoln shifting from agrarian to service orientation National Forest. in much the same way as the rest of the The forest genre attracts many diverse western United States. The shift is away from and useful economic activities. Basic consumptive uses such as mining, logging, economic theory dictates that scarce resources and livestock production toward non- should be used to their best advantage. This consumptive uses such as dispersed recreation. report concludes that resources within the If indeed the economy is shifting from Lincoln National Forest are used best by traditional revenue generation to revenue managing livestock grazing, logging, and generation through dispersed recreation, will dispersed recreation in a manner that will this transition result in a stronger economy facilitate and support their continued and for south central New Mexico, or will it be long-term harmonious co-existence. detrimental to the economic well-being of those who live in this rural area? The economy of the Lincoln National INTRODUCTION Forest was analyzed, and essential data were During the administration of Abraham identified that allow quantification of the Lincoln, the Homestead Act was hailed as strengths, weaknesses, and uncertainties of an innovative and effective way to develop each industry competing for land in the western wilderness areas. Many homesteaders Lincoln National Forest; namely livestock during this time found their way to the grazing, logging, and dispersed recreation. region that was to become the Lincoln Data to compare and contrast each industry as to viability and sustainability were quantified. From here the economic stability 1Sr. Economic/Legal Research Specialist ([email protected]); Range Economist; and Professor, respectively; all of the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. Range Improvement Task Force • Report 68 1 National Forest, setting the stage for the of 2004 to provide insight into county- communities of Mayhill, Russia, Cloudcroft, specific dispersed recreational activity. This and Ruidoso, among others. survey was designed to provide data in the Homesteaders already established in appropriate units for an Input/Output the areas that would someday comprise the (I/O) analysis. The primary goal of the Lincoln National Forest used its renewable survey was to determine the dollar value of a resources as a critical source of fence posts, single recreational visitor day in the Lincoln firewood, and lumber. As time passed, laws National Forest. were enacted that established the National In order to determine the value per day Forest System and granted the Forest Service of recreation, we needed to know how many the power to control forest lands. people were in each visiting group, including The Forest Service was established in both adults and children. Also included the Department of Agriculture in 1905 were simple questions about residency and and the Forest Reserves were moved from willingness to return to the same geographic the Department of the Interior to the area in the future. Each respondent was Department of Agriculture in that same asked what proportion of their expenditure year. In 1907 the former “Forest Reserves” occurred within the debarkation county were renamed the now common “National and what proportion at the final destination Forests.” where the primary activity took place. The Lincoln National Forest was once Specifically, respondents were asked how part of five other national forests and was much money was spent on fuel, lodging, officially established on July 26, 1902 with dining, groceries, entertainment, recreational offices in Capitan, New Mexico. The land purchases, rental equipment, and recreational area at that time included only the White fees during the entire recreation trip. and Capitan Mountains. Presidential The number of recreation visitor days proclamations were signed in 1905, 1906, was also accounted for in each survey. A 1907, 1910, and 1919 adding additional recreation visitor day (RVD) consists of lands to the Lincoln National Forest. at least one hour of use by one or more In the latter part of the nineteenth individuals and is calculated using the century and into the twentieth century, following formulas: lumber production and livestock grazing became the two principal industries in 1: # Individuals x # Days what is now the Lincoln National Forest. recreating = # RVDs Generations of Americans raised families 2: RVD per activity/=Total visitor and earned their living on the ranches, days for county = Activity sawmills and timber stands throughout weight. the forest. Today, the Lincoln Forest has 3: Activity weight x Total expanded its economy to include auto expenditures for activity = touring, biking, cultural and historic sites, Weighted RVD expenditure. camping, educational programs, fishing, 4: Weighted RVD expenditure per hiking, horseback riding, hunting, off- activity summed = Expenditure highway vehicles, picnicking, winter sports, across all activities. vacationing and wildlife viewing, to name only a few of the recreational and educational Livestock grazing resources available (Baker, 1988). The United States Forest Service keeps detailed records of all animals grazed on the Lincoln National Forest from 1905 to METHODOLOGY present on card files in the USFS district office in Alamogordo, New Mexico. As part Recreation survey of the research for this report, these records A survey was conducted in the Lincoln were copied onto individual sheets and the Forest during the spring, summer and fall data was manually entered into Excel, where 2 Range Improvement Task Force • Report 68 Figure 1. Livestock on LNF allotments (1970 to 2004) it was quantified and categorized in order Data collection to establish the number of livestock that Data from the extractive industries during were grazed on all allotments in the Lincoln the study period 1970 to 2004 were National Forest from 1970 to 2004, which is quantified and adjusted for inflation; the time period under study (Figure 1). an annual gross contribution was then calculated. This particular time span was Logging data used because it reflected significant changes Logging data were obtained from United as far as annual revenue to the economy was States Forest Service records compiled by concerned. Livestock grazing and logging the Cooperative Extension Service at New were considered to be traditional in so far Mexico State University. This data set spans as they were the original contributors to the from 1900 to 2004 and was invaluable in economy. Mining was not included in the establishing accurate timber harvest numbers study since it never was a major contributor in the Lincoln National Forest. and today is virtually non-existent commercially in the region. IMPLAN Protocol Next, recreation-related revenue IMPLAN is a micro-computer-based, generation and the cumulative impact of Input-Output modeling program. With the decreasing/increasing revenue base IMPLAN, one can estimate I/O affect for was calculated. Using USFS visitor use any economic need, up to 528 sectors for any monitoring survey data, combined with the region consisting of one or more counties. present recreational survey results, economic IMPLAN includes procedures for generating data were identified and quantified. multipliers and estimating impacts by applying final demand changes to the Livestock grazing regression modeled economy. For the category livestock grazing this study The primary database for the hypothesized that the authorized number of construction of the initial I/O models in livestock grazing on pasture in the Lincoln this study was New Mexico county-specific National Forest was a function of the IMPLAN data. For the four-county–specific following factors: previous year rainfall, fuel data, the baseline matrices were constructed price, population, livestock grazing in feed from 2001 databases. This aggregation yards, and livestock prices. In this model, reduced the dimensionality of the analysis two independent variables, specifically the to manageable levels and enabled the sectors periods before and after protected-activity that were affected by direct impacts to be centers (PACs) were in place, are qualitative analyzed. or categorical

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