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Annual Report 2018-2019 AIR TRAVEL – GREENER BY DESIGN ANNUAL REPORT 2018-2019 Greener DESIGNby Greener by Design Executive Committee Prof Peter Bearman Jonathon Counsell Roger Gardner Dr John Green Ian Jopson Dr Ray Kingcombe Geoff Maynard Kevin Morris Prof Ian Poll Robert Whitfield Dr Richard Wilson Roger Wiltshire 2 Royal Aeronautical Society GREENER BY DESIGN ANNUAL REPORT 2018-2019 Contents Introduction 4 Conference Report 6 Sustainable Alternative Fuels 13 Atmospheric Science 16 Operations Report 22 Technology 27 Front cover: Airbus Bird of Prey concept study. Airbus. Greener by Design Annual Report 2018-2019 3 Introduction As the 20th anniversary of the founding of Greener emissions, and substantial and very swift growth in by Design approaches, it is appropriate to reflect renewable energy. on the significant changes that have occurred in the intervening years. Perhaps the most significant While the 2025 target is widely regarded as of these is the attitude of the public. unachievable, it illustrates the yawning gap developing between what the public expect 20 years ago, few people had heard of global governments to do and what can reasonably be warming, and knew even less about its causes. done without causing major dislocation of trade The turning point in public perception was possibly and transport. Yet maybe the public is prepared the Stern report, which spelt out in considerable to accept dislocation of services as the price to detail the physical and financial effects of doing pay for rapid reduction in CO2? There is a real nothing. About the same time, global warming and risk of this becoming a ‘people versus industry’ the environmental effects became a part of GCSE dispute, which is bound to include Aviation as its Geography examinations, and on a personal note, I percentage of world CO2 emissions continues to started lecturing on aviation and the environment. rise (further details are in the Operations report). Each year I have asked my MSc students whether Is Aviation ready for this challenge? Can more they believe in Global warming. Among those early be done faster? These are questions we aim to students barely half did, yet by 2017 all my new answer in our next GbD conference to be held on students did. Small wonder then that there has 7 November this year – entitled ‘Aviation and the been a complete turnaround in attitudes to Global Net Zero emissions challenge’. We hope to see you warming by youngsters and indeed many middle there. aged and older people, no doubt also aided by the recent David Attenborough Blue Planet BBC TV programmes. Recently this change in attitudes has resulted in school children worldwide taking days off school to protest about climate change and ‘Extinction Rebellion’ protesting in London and other major Geoff Maynard cities. The protestors want net zero emissions Chairman by 2025, implying a massive reduction in CO2 Greener by Design Right: Airbus Bird of Prey concept study. Airbus. 4 Royal Aeronautical Society 5 Conference Report Greener by Design Conference report INTRODUCTION Paris Agreement which describes a higher level of ambition than formed the basis of the UK’s 80% The 2018 Annual Conference ‘Impact of Electric reduction target. and Hybrid Propulsion in Aviation’ was held on 20 November 2018 at the Royal Aeronautical Society's As part of this update they have commissioned a headquarters at No.4 Hamilton Place, London new project to look at technology potential and the W1J 7BQ. The conference opened with a keynote aviation report will also take account of the potential speech from Adrian Gault, Chief Economist at the from biofuels. Their recent report ‘Biomass in a low UK Government’s Committee on Climate Change carbon economy’ forecasts some 10% of aviation (CCC). His presentation reminded the conference of biofuel produced from biomass with carbon capture the UK Government’s legislated emissions target of technology by 2050. an 80% reduction by 2050. He pointed to aviation’s privileged position in that strategy, assuming UK aviation emissions would be at 2005 levels in 2050. SESSION 1: WHAT IS A HYBRID AIRCRAFT The CCC is now updating its aviation analysis The first speaker in this session was Robert of 2009 and expects to publish a report in Thompson, Managing Partner in Rowland Berger, spring 2019, including recommendations to the who gave an introduction to Electric and Hybrid Department for Transport’s review of aviation propulsion. He drew a clear distinction between strategy. The new analysis will take account of the the More Electric Aircraft (MEA) and an Electric 6 Royal Aeronautical Society Propulsion (EP) aircraft. The former has steadily been progressed by aircraft manufacturers, and now thrust reversers control, brake activation, engine start activation, flight controls and wing de-icing are routinely electrically operated. Electric environmental control systems and landing gear activation are being developed now. Developments in electric propulsion can be grouped into three types: Turbo electric where a turboshaft powers a generator to drive the motor powering the fan; hybrid electric where either battery or turboshaft can be used; and all electric engines where a battery powers a motor which drives the fan. The pace of change is accelerating rapidly with Above: The Ampaire Electric EEL is a Cessna 337 double the number of annual new developments Skymaster with an electric rear motor. Ampaire. being announced in the last couple of years Opposite: The E-Fan X hybrid-electric aircraft compared with 2016. The urban air taxi and General demonstrator uses a BAe146. Airbus. aviation sectors comprise the bulk (90%) of current developments. The research is predominately taking place in existing aviation research centres in the US massive gains in engine efficiency and a dramatic and Europe. reduction in emissions. It also opens the door to new entrants to the market and new supply chains. There is broad agreement that hybrid electric engines could enter service in the 2030s. This will Issues to consider include whether a mass market be aided by the environmental pressure to reduce should be chased (or high end only), small or large CO2 emissions, otherwise in the face of reducing planes be developed, whether to go faster or emissions from other sectors while aviation slower, whether battery only or hybrid, whether emissions continue to rise, CO2 from aviation autonomous or piloted, and short or long range. sources could reach around a quarter of annual CO2 This will obviously be influenced by research and emissions by 2050. development outcomes, and Rolls have already started this project to learn more about the Progress is being made, but key barriers remain challenges to be overcome before it can become a including battery performance, hazard containment, reality. powerful but light electric motors, and installation of charging points at airports. Strong customer and Colin Hodges from Airbus addressed this subject political pressure to move to electric traction will with reference to E-Fan X, Airbus’s electrification be essential. There will also be potential upheaval project. First, he drew attention to the massive to the market, as engine companies, airframe increase in renewable energy: wind energy designers and electrical systems companies battle production has doubled every five years and solar for supremacy in this new market. energy has increased five-fold in the past ten years (albeit from a lower base). Battery cost and specific David Debney, Rolls-Royce’s Chief of Future weight continues to fall, and this has facilitated a big Aircraft Concepts, spoke on the eVTOL, a radical increase in the number of electric cars. Development new concept. Rolls-Royce expect this will grow of a light weight electric aeroplane would increase the market considerably, with the potential to market size through urban air mobility and air taxis displace light helicopters and large general aviation would become practical. Colin also emphasised aircraft, and to increase the market size as the new that sustainable aviation growth requires new aircraft will be easier to fly. This will also create technologies to be developed if the internationally new markets, such as urban taxis. Development agreed targets for aviation CO2 emissions are to be will be influenced by the extent battery technology met. There is also a need to be practical about what improves, which will be key to extending range and can be achieved: a ten-seater all electric aircraft therefore winning market share. with a range of 100 miles is a potentially achievable target, whereas longer distance larger aircraft would It also has the potential to be a game changer for need to be hybrid, perhaps allowing a regional jet the aviation industry. It will be a radical new aircraft/ seating 100 and with a range of 1,000 miles to be engine design/architecture, which will provide practical. Greener by Design Annual Report 2018-2019 7 Conference Report The Subsonic Ultra Green Aircraft Research (SUGAR) Project is a multiphase, collaborative research project conducted by NASA and Boeing Research and Technology. NASA. At this stage Airbus are testing a four-engine aircraft, account of the heavier landing weight though there with one of the engines replaced by a 2.5MW electric would be a dependency upon the number of fans engine driving a fan. This gives an opportunity to test that might be included on e-designs. However, there the major technologies, to understand the integration would still be a significant margin against the ICAO challenges,
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