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In Vaccines We Trust? advantageThe Magazine of CAGE Research Centre / Spring 2021 / Issue 11 / ISSN 2397-8309 In vaccines we trust? The ties that bind An early influencer? Putting people’s welfare first Essay competition winner ADVANTAGE / public policy & data special / spring 2021 In this issue ... 03 04 07 WELCOME TO THE IN VACCINES WE TRUST? THE TIES THAT biND: SPRING ISSUE OF HOW CONTACT WITH ADVANTAGE OTHER REgiONS CAN STRENGTHEN FEELINGS OF NATIONAL IDENTITY 10 14 18 AN EARLY PUTTING PEOPLE’S JULIA TATTERSHALL: INFLUENCER? HOW WELFARE FIRST: ESSAY COMPETITION MARTIN LUTHER’S A NEW EXPERIMENTAL WINNER NETWORK HELPED APPROACH TO HELP HIM MAKE THE SYRIAN REFUGEES PROTESTANT FIND JOBS IN JORDAN REFORMATION A SUCCESS 21 23 24 PARTING SHOT ABOUT CAGE CONTACTS 2 cage researcH centre warwick.ac.uk/cage Welcome to the Spring issue of Advantage… The articles in this issue showcase CAGE’s policy-relevant economics at its best. While each project featured has taken advantage of data opportunities in very specific geographical or historical contexts, the findings and insights drawn from the data have a much wider relevance. our cover story analyses the aftermath of the shocking revelation in 2011 that the CIA undertook a fake vaccination programme to hunt for osama bin laden in pakistan. CAGE director: Mirko Draca the revelation and ensuing anti-vaccination propaganda CAGE research director: Bishnupriya Gupta campaign by the taliban provided a unique opportunity CAGE impact director: Arun Advani editor: Stephanie Seavers to understand how anti-vaccination sentiment affects the Contributors uptake of vaccinations. Monica Martinez-bravo’s and andreas Manuel Bagues is professor of economics at the stegmann’s findings are particularly meaningful in the university of Warwick and a CAGE associate context of the current COVID-19 vaccination drive. Sascha O. Becker is Xiaokai yang chair of business and economics at Monash university, next, we move to spain, where Manuel bagues and Melbourne, part-time professor at the university christopher roth take advantage of a natural experiment — of Warwick, and a CAGE associate. Stefano Caria is associate professor of the spanish lottery for military conscription — to understand economics at the university of Warwick and a how interregional contact affects sentiments of cultural CAGE Associate cohesion and national identity (very pertinent for the UK at Mirko Draca is professor of economics at the university of Warwick and CAGE director the moment). then on to germany during the protestant Monica Martinez-Bravo is associate professor reformation: sascha o. becker and Jared rubin consider at CEMFI the effects of Martin luther’s networks on the spread of Christopher Roth is assistant professor of protestantism, revealing details about information flows economics at the university of Warwick and a CAGE deputy theme leader and the spread of ideas that can tell us much about human Jared Rubin is a professor of economics at interaction today. finally, we move to Jordan, where chapman university stefano caria has tested out a new algorithm proposed as Andreas Stegmann is assistant professor at the university of Warwick and a CAGE associate a modification to the randomised controlled trial — which Julia Tattersall is a fourth year undergraduate enables larger numbers of participants to benefit from the student in french and economics at the policy schemes being tested. university of Warwick. Advantage is published bi-annually and is in this issue we’re also delighted to include the CAGE essay freely available in electronic format at prize Winner 2020, Julia tattersall. her summary of Mark warwick.ac.uk/cage harrison’s paper on KGB methods in lithuania during the Articles in this issue of Advantage reflect the opinions of the authors, not of the Centre. cold War is beautifully crafted and a really engaging read. the content of the articles (illustrations at a time when our social spheres have changed excepted) is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely with an appropriate considerably, these articles offer intriguing insights into the attribution of source. please provide us with a power of human interaction, social networks and the way in copy of any material that you reproduce. which we assimilate — and act on — information. We hope CAGE Research Centre department of economics, university of you enjoy the issue. Warwick, coventry CV4 7AL, UK Stephanie Seavers, Editor the university of WarWick 3 ADVANTAGE / public policy & data special / spring 2021 In vaccines we trust? By Monica Martinez-Bravo and Andreas Stegmann in July 2011, the pakistani public learnt that the CIA had used a fake vaccination campaign as cover to hunt for osama bin laden. the disclosure of the ruse led to an increase in anti-vaccination propaganda by the taliban. empirical evidence suggests these events damaged the reputation of vaccines in pakistan, eroding parental confidence in vaccines and health workers, and ultimately causing a decline in vaccination rates. 4 cage researcH centre warwick.ac.uk/cage accines are responsible capture osama bin laden in 2011, district of residence. our research for some of the largest the CIA organised an immunisation design compares the evolution of improvements in human campaign as cover for their immunisation rates from children welfare in history. espionage activities. the objective who were born in the months before Vthe ongoing rollout of COVID-19 was to obtain DNA samples of the disclosure to children who were vaccination programmes around children living in a compound in born after the disclosure. We also the world is a case in point. these abbottabad where bin laden was look across regions that differ in programmes are regarded as a key suspected to be hiding. this would the level of their initial ideological step in ending one of the deadliest have allowed the CIA to obtain affinity to the taliban. parents in pandemics in recent history. definitive proof that bin laden was districts that exhibit higher support despite the benefits that society hiding there. in July 2011, two months for islamist groups are likely to have can derive from immunisation, after the actual capture of bin laden, been more exposed to the anti- vaccine scepticism is common. The Guardian published an article vaccine propaganda campaign. it this holds true even in the case reporting on the vaccine ruse and is also likely that parents with an of well-established vaccines, for describing the collaboration of a initial ideological affinity to the instance those taliban granted that prevent greater credibility measles or to their anti-vaccine polio, despite “Vaccine scepticism has messages. the fact that our findings these vaccines frequently been fuelled by indicate that the have proved groups that oppose the use of disclosure of the safe and vaccine ruse and effective for vaccines for ideological reasons.” the subsequent decades. anti-vaccination vaccine campaign had scepticism has frequently been pakistani doctor with the CIA. substantial negative effects on fuelled by groups that oppose News of the CIA operation vaccination rates: districts in the the use of vaccines for ideological caused uproar in pakistan. taking 90th percentile of the distribution reasons. These groups have often advantage of this, the pakistani of support for Islamist groups spread misinformation about vaccine taliban launched an anti-vaccination experienced a decline in vaccination safety and effectiveness. this is the propaganda campaign to discredit rates between 23% and 39% relative case both in developed countries in medical workers and to cast doubt to districts in the 10th percentile of europe and north america as well on vaccines. they accused health support for Islamist groups. as in developing countries such as workers of being CIA spy agents figure 1 provides a visual nigeria, afghanistan or pakistan, and claimed that pakistan’s polio representation of these effects: there is where religious extremist groups vaccination campaigns were a a decline in vaccination rates in areas have engaged in anti-vaccine conspiracy to sterilise the Muslim with high support for Islamist groups propaganda. population. after the disclosure, while vaccination despite the potentially large We evaluate how disclosure of the rates remained stable in areas with negative consequences of vaccine CIA operation and the subsequent low support for Islamist groups. scepticism, we still have a limited taliban anti-vaccination propaganda We also present evidence of understanding of how the spread of campaign affected immunisation effects on disease prevalence. information that discredits vaccines rates and demand for other types exploiting variation at the district affects immunisation rates and of formal healthcare. our main and year level, we find that a the demand for formal medicine results on vaccination rates take one standard deviation increase more generally. To investigate this advantage of a rich household in support for Islamist groups is research question, we analyse data survey that contains detailed associated with an additional 0.8 from a sequence of recent events in immunisation records for a large cases of polio per district. this is pakistan. sample of children, as well as precise equivalent to doubling the average As part of the operations to information on their date of birth and number of cases per district. the university of WarWick 5 ADVANTAGE / public policy & data special / spring 2021 We are able to show that our disclosure of the vaccine ruse. reputation of vaccines and formal estimates on vaccination rates are We also find evidence that medicine. there is substantial mainly explained by changes in the households’ health-seeking anecdotal evidence describing the demand for vaccines rather than behaviour changed in a way that vaccine ruse as the triggering factor changes in supply. using detailed is consistent with lower demand and the taliban propaganda as administrative data on the timing for formal medicine: households fueling vaccine scepticism. and scope of vaccination drives, we became less likely to consult formal indeed, we provide a number of show that the intensity of vaccination doctors when their children got sick.
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