Background Paper Housing Land Supply February 2007 Housing Land Background Paper CONTENTS 1. Introduction Part 1 - Housing Requirements 2. Housing Requirements - Local Plan and Structure Plan requirements - Draft South East Plan requirements - Planning Policy Statement 3 Part 2 - Housing Supply 3. Monitoring against Local Plan assessment of housing supply 4. Update to the Urban Capacity Study - Identified sites - Windfall allowances - Distribution of urban potential 5. Update to windfall allowances in the light of Planning Policy Statement 3 - Other identified sites - Remaining windfall allowances 6. Greenfield urban extensions housing potential 7. Overall housing potential Part 3 – Comparison of Housing Requirements and Supply 8. Comparison of Housing Requirements and Supply. - Long Term - Medium Term - Short Term 9. Conclusions February 2007 1 Housing Land Background Paper Appendices 1. Extracts from Annual Monitoring Report re comparisons with Local Plan assessment of supply 2. Update to Urban Capacity Study 2006 3. Schedule of “other identified sites” 4. Analysis of implementation of “windfall” sites permissions 5. Housing trajectories tables 2 February 2007 Housing Land Background Paper 1. Introduction 1.1 The issue of housing provision is in a state of transition. At a national level the Government have recently published Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) setting out its new approach to planning for housing, including new guidance on how to plan for future housing land supply. At a regional level, longstanding Structure Plan housing requirements are in the process of being replaced by new strategic requirements in the South East Plan. At the local level, policies and site proposals in the Local Plan are in the process of being replaced and updated by new policies and proposals in the Wycombe Development Framework, most notably the Core Strategy and Site Allocations development plan documents. 1.2 This background paper sets out the current position with regard to housing land supply and requirements in Wycombe District, having regard to this changing context. This inevitably means a greater range of information has to be included due to the changing position. The information contained within this report has helped to inform the preparation of: • Proposed Changes to the Wycombe Development Framework Core Strategy • The Wycombe Development Framework Preferred Options Site Allocations document It also provides an up to date position statement of the housing land supply position for development control purposes. As a result the analysis at the end of the report focuses on the long term, medium term and short term assessment of supply against requirements. 1.3 The report includes in particular an update on the Urban Capacity Study (see Appendix 2). The Urban Capacity Study was published in November 2005 with a base date of 31st March 2005. The update to the study uses base information at 31st March 2006, though some information has been updated more recently, particularly in relation to individual sites. It also includes additional analysis of the position with regard to windfall allowances in the light of new guidance in PPS3, enabling additional supply to be identified in a site specific manner. 1.4 The report is structured setting out: • housing requirements • an analysis of supply, looking at performance against the Local Plan, but also looking forward through the urban capacity study update and review of the windfall situation. It also includes an overview of greenfield housing potential in the light of the emerging strategic context and the submitted Core Strategy. • A comparison of requirements and supply in the long, medium and short term. February 2007 3 Housing Land Background Paper PART 1 HOUSING REQUIREMENTS 2. Housing Requirements 2.1 The following housing requirements for the District are explained in this section: • Current Structure Plan and Local Plan requirements • The emerging requirements in the South East Plan • The requirement in PPS3 to identify a 5 year supply of housing Current Structure Plan and Local Plan requirements 2.2 The current housing requirement for Wycombe District is set out in the Adopted Buckinghamshire County Structure Plan (1996). Policy H1 of that Plan requires a net addition to the dwelling stock of 7,200 dwellings over the period 1991 – 2011. 2.3 The Adopted Wycombe District Local Plan to 2011 then sets out how this requirement is to be met. Using a base date of 1st April 2000, table 3, paragraph 3.11 of the Local Plan sets the three main components of meeting the requirement: • Dwelling Completions 1991 – 2000 • Anticipated supply from “windfall” sites • Requirement from housing allocations in the Plan Policy H2 of the Plan allocates sufficient sites to satisfy the third component. 2.4 When dwelling completions up to the year 2000 are taken into account, the residual dwelling requirement for the District for the period 2000 – 2011 is 4,152 dwellings. Policy H4 then introduces phasing requirements. This breaks down the outstanding requirements as follows: • 2000 – 2006 = 2,282 dwellings • 2006 – 2011 = 1,950 dwellings These phasing requirements include a 5% “non-implementation” allowance uplift. The policy phases the release of greenfield sites after 2006 and sets down criteria for reviewing the need for those allocations. Updated Requirement (1st April 2006 base date) 2.5 There have been 6 full years of dwelling completions since the base date for the Local Plan. In this period a further 2,040 dwellings have been completed1. The residual Structure Plan requirement taking account of these completions is therefore 4,152 minus 2,040 = 2,112 dwellings for the period 2006-11. Theoretical Requirements beyond 2011 based on current requirements 1 For details see page 20, Development Trends 2005-2006 (WDC, December 2006) 4 February 2007 Housing Land Background Paper 2.6 The new Regional Spatial Strategy for the South East, the South East Plan, is due to be adopted by the end of February 2008. This will replace any requirements in the Structure Plan with new housing requirements for Districts and sub-regional areas (see below for more details). The existing Structure Plan policies cease to apply from the end of September 2007 unless they are “saved” for a longer period. It is not known whether the Government intends to do this and if so which policies will be saved. If however existing Structure Plan requirements for the District were projected forwards beyond 2011, this would be on the basis of an annual rate of 360 dwellings per annum2. 2.7 This would give longer term requirements of: 2006-11 = 2,112 dwellings 2006-16 = 3,912 dwellings 2006-193 = 4,992 dwellings 2006-26 = 7,512 dwellings T South East Plan requirements 2.8 The draft South East Plan was submitted to the Government in March 2006. It is subject to a public examination from November 2006 – March 2007. Once adopted in February 2008, the Plan will replace any housing requirements that are currently in the Structure Plan. 2.9 Policy H1 of the draft South East Plan sets down a housing requirement for Wycombe District of 330 dwellings per annum (dpa) for the plan period 2006-26. This gives the following requirements over the different time periods: 2006 -11 = 1,650 2006 -16 = 3,300 2006 -19 = 4,290 2006 -26 = 6,600 2.10 Wycombe District falls partly within the Western Corridor and Blackwater Valley sub-regional area. The remaining part of the District (ie the north of the District) is in a residual area (rest of Bucks). Policy WCBV2 of the draft Plan requires 300 dpa in that part of the District falling within the Western Corridor and Blackwater Valley part of the District, or 6,000 for the period 2006-26. This leaves 30 dpa to be provided in the remainder of the District. Five year requirement 2.11 Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) indicates that Local Planning Authorities should identify sufficient specific deliverable sites to deliver housing in the first five years. Based on the current Local Plan and Structure Plan requirements, the 5 years requirement from 2006-11 is 2,112 dwellings. This equates to an annual rate of 422 dpa. If the 5 year requirement is taken from the start of the next 2 7,200 dwellings divided by 20 years. 3 Included as it is the currently anticipated plan period for housing provision in the Site Allocations development plan document February 2007 5 Housing Land Background Paper monitoring year (1st April 2007), the 5 year requirement to the year 2012 would be 1,941 dwellings.4 2.12 If the five year supply is based on the emerging South East Plan, the five year requirement for 2006-11 would be 1,650 dwellings (see above). 4 Assumes 2,112 dwellings less anticipated completions in 2006/7 of 531 dwellings (see housing trajectories in section 8 and associated table) in Four fifths of 2,112 to cover the period 2007-11 and 360 dwellings for the year 2011-12 6 February 2007 Housing Land Background Paper Part 2 - Housing Supply 3. Monitoring against Local Plan assessment of housing supply 3.1 The Council regularly monitors the number of dwellings completed in the District, the stock of outstanding planning permissions, and assesses progress against meeting strategic housing requirements for the District as set out in the Local Plan. This is reported annually in the Council’s publication, Development Trends and more recently have been published in the Annual Monitoring Report. The most recent versions of both of these documents were published in December 2006. 3.2 Appendix 1 sets out a summary of this monitoring data with a base date of 31st March 2006. This section summarises the key findings, including the comparison against Local Plan requirements to date. Overall Position and Local Plan Allocated Sites 3.3 Between 2000 (the base date for housing provision in the Local Plan) and 2006 a total of 2,040 net additional dwellings were completed in the District.