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Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One

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Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One A Final Report to Wolverhampton City Council (on behalf of the HMRA Partnership) ECOTEC Research & Consulting Limited Priestley House 28-34 Albert Street Birmingham B4 7UD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)121 616 3600 Fax: +44 (0)121 616 3699 Web: www.ecotec.com Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One A Final Report to Wolverhampton City Council (on behalf of the HMRA Partnership) C2851 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited 12-26 Albert Street 13a Avenue de Tervuren Birmingham B4 7UD B-1040 Brussels United Kingdom Belgium Tel: +44 (0)121 616 3600 Tel: +32 (0)2 743 8949 Fax: +44 (0)121 616 3699 Fax: +32 (0)2 743 7111 Web: www.ecotec.com Orense, 25– Esc. Dcha.3B E-mail: [email protected] Madrid 28020 Spain Tel: +34 91 598 08 51 Fax: +34 91 556 3466 6-8 Marshalsea Road London SE1 1HL United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)20 7089 5550 Fax: +44 (0)20 7089 5559 31-32 Park Row Leeds LS1 5JD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)113 244 9845 Fax: +44 (0)113 244 9844 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.0 Introduction 1 1.1 Background to Phase One Research 1 1.2 Housing Market Assessment (HMA) 2 1.3 Aims, Objectives and Scope of Phase One Research 2 1.3.1 Stage One: Development of the Evidence Base 3 1.3.2 Stage Two: Identification of the Strategic Development Framework 3 1.4 Report Structure 6 2.0 The Case for the HMRA 7 2.1 Regional Housing Strategy 7 2.1.1 Demand Side Issues 7 2.1.2 Supply Side Issues 7 2.1.3 Key Priorities 9 2.2 Rationale for the Selection of the HMRA Area 10 3.0 Area Character and Function 20 3.1 Summary 20 3.1.1 Economic function 20 3.1.2 Social function 21 3.1.3 Housing function and sub-markets 21 3.2 Economic Function 22 3.2.1 Economic Structure 24 3.2.2 Labour Market Profile 25 3.2.3 Economic Strategy 31 3.3 Social Function 33 3.3.1 Household incomes and housing choice 33 3.3.2 Deprivation and social structure 33 3.4 Housing Function and Sub-Markets 39 3.4.1 Housing Function 39 3.4.2 Housing Sub-Markets 45 4.0 Reference Area 55 4.1 Introduction 55 4.2 Summary 55 4.3 Migration 56 4.3.1 Net migration 56 4.3.2 Migration Linkages 58 4.3.3 Migration-Based Reference Area 60 4.4 Travel to Work 62 4.4.1 Context 62 4.4.2 Employment centres 62 4.4.3 Net commuting flows 63 4.4.4 Commuting patterns 64 4.4.5 Distance travelled to work 64 4.4.6 Travel to work patterns 64 5.0 Drivers of Change 75 5.1 Introduction 75 5.2 Summary 75 5.2.1 Economic Trends 75 5.2.2 Demographic Trends 76 5.2.3 Social Trends 78 5.2.4 Governance and Policy Drivers 78 5.2.5 Micro-Level Drivers 79 5.2.6 Key Outcomes 79 5.2.7 Future Trajectory 80 5.3 Regional Trends 81 5.3.1 Regional economic trends 81 5.3.2 Demographic trends 90 5.3.3 Social trends 93 5.4 Sub-regional drivers 96 5.4.1 Industrialisation, De-Industrialisation and Changing Urban Form 96 5.4.2 Governance and Municipalism 104 5.4.3 Public policy 107 5.4.4 Demographic trends 115 5.5 Localised/neighbourhood drivers 126 5.5.1 Introduction 126 5.5.2 Housing design and mixed use environments 126 5.5.3 Area stigma 130 5.5.4 Environmental issues and crime 133 5.5.5 Demography and insularity 134 5.5.6 Spiral of decline 137 5.5.7 Policy response: area based programmes 142 5.5.8 Policy response: housing market restructuring 143 6.0 Neighbourhood Clusters 145 6.1 Neighbourhoods and housing market renewal 145 6.2 ‘At risk’ areas 146 6.3 Neighbourhood function and trajectory 149 6.3.1 Housing market weakness 150 6.3.2 Neighbourhood cohesion 155 6.3.3 Social exclusion and deprivation 158 6.3.4 Environment and access to services 161 6.3.5 Neighbourhood typologies 164 6.4 Conclusions 164 7.0 Key Policy & Investment Context 167 7.1 Introduction 167 7.2 Regional Spatial Policy 167 7.3 Housing Development 168 7.4 Housing Policy and Investment 169 7.5 Neighbourhood Renewal Activity 172 7.6 Economic Strategy 173 7.7 Transport Strategy 174 8.0 Conclusions and Phase Two Recommendations 176 8.1 Conclusions 176 8.1.1 Policy-Off Scenarios 176 8.2 Phase Two Recommendations - Knowledge Gaps 177 Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION This document constitutes a final report on research undertaken as part of the Phase One work on the development of the prospective Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area (HMRA). The aims of this Phase One research were to develop the evidence base and strategic context for the proposed Housing Market Renewal Area to inform the Housing Market Assessment (HMA). The research was undertaken by a consortium led by ECOTEC Research & Consulting Ltd., including CSR Partnership Ltd, the Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (CURS) at the University of Birmingham, and JDT/Mott McDonald. 1.1 Background to the Phase One Research The 2003 West Midlands Regional Housing Strategy (RHS) identified the Black Country and Telford as one of two areas (the other being the Eastern Corridor of Birmingham-Solihull) facing a potential risk of low demand for certain property types and neighbourhoods. The identification of these two areas followed the advent of two Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders in the West Midlands - the Birmingham-Sandwell Pathfinder (‘Urban Living’) and the North Staffordshire Pathfinder (‘Renew’). Both of which will now receive substantial Government funding from ODPM, subject to the scheme updates due later this year. The proposed HMRA falls within the Central housing markets area identified in the Regional Strategy as one of two focal areas for action in the region where the potential is identified for the Strategy to deliver wider impact than on the target locality itself. This area involves the Black Country, Birmingham and Coventry and the areas most directly influenced by these markets running west and east - including the high price commuter belt and adjacent rural areas. The West Midlands Regional Housing Board (RHB) has since allocated funding - over the period 2004/05 to 2005/06 - for the establishment of a prospectus for integrated public investment to tackle housing market weakness and changing markets in the prospective Black Country, Telford HMRA. The development of the prospectus will involve in particular: the identification of specific housing market renewal areas where the market is malfunctioning and is likely to continue to do in the absence of some intervention; identification of the drivers affecting changing demand within the intervention area neighbourhoods; and The development of proposals for housing-led investment that are integrated with the wider policy framework for the Black Country (including the ‘Black Country Vision 7 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 2033’ and Spatial Framework) and Telford (including Telford’s ‘Economic Development Vision and Strategic Framework’). The expectation is that investment in the proposed HMRA would initially be funded through the West Midlands Regional Housing Pot, and subsequently through a second round of the Housing Market Renewal Fund (as part of the next Comprehensive Spending Review), via a long-term programme agreed with ODPM and directed through the Regional Housing Board. Responsibility for the development of the prospectus is held by the HMRA Steering Group - a cross-authority partnership between the four Black Country local authorities and Telford & Wrekin Borough Council - with Wolverhampton City Council acting as the accountable body. The Phase One research - presented in this report - represents an initial phase of research undertaken to inform the process of developing a prospectus for the proposed HMRA - in Phase Two. 1.2 Housing Market Assessment (HMA) The Phase One research has been informed by the Housing Market Assessment (HMA) Manual - developed to provide local authorities and their partners with a framework for better understanding how housing markets operate - and specifically for analysing the supply/demand dynamic at the sub-regional level. The HMA identifies ten steps (see Figure 1.1). The Phase One research has focused particularly on Phase Two of the HMA process involving: Step 3: Analysis of the strategic context Step 4: Analysis of key economic and demographic trends Step 5: Identification of the function of the area 1.3 Aims, Objectives and Scope of the Phase One Research The scope of the Phase One work on developing the prospective HMRA has been fundamentally governed by the requirement for interim reporting in January 2005 to the Regional Housing Board of indicative public sector investment for the Regional Housing Strategy 2005. The primary aim for Phase One has, therefore, been to provide the RHB with a suitable case for investment - recognising that this will subsequently need to carry through into Ministerial approval in the context of the 2005 RHS. Phase One has also had the objectives of: Enabling scrutiny by ODPM and the Audit Commission to be successfully accomplished; and 8 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 Ensuring that the proposed HMRA is recognised and integrated with the RES, RPG and sub-regional strategies for the Black Country and Telford.
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