Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One
A Final Report to Wolverhampton City Council (on behalf of the HMRA Partnership)
ECOTEC Research & Consulting Limited
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Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One
A Final Report to Wolverhampton City Council (on behalf of the HMRA Partnership)
C2851
ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited
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CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.0 Introduction 1
1.1 Background to Phase One Research 1 1.2 Housing Market Assessment (HMA) 2 1.3 Aims, Objectives and Scope of Phase One Research 2 1.3.1 Stage One: Development of the Evidence Base 3 1.3.2 Stage Two: Identification of the Strategic Development Framework 3 1.4 Report Structure 6
2.0 The Case for the HMRA 7
2.1 Regional Housing Strategy 7 2.1.1 Demand Side Issues 7 2.1.2 Supply Side Issues 7 2.1.3 Key Priorities 9 2.2 Rationale for the Selection of the HMRA Area 10
3.0 Area Character and Function 20
3.1 Summary 20 3.1.1 Economic function 20 3.1.2 Social function 21 3.1.3 Housing function and sub-markets 21 3.2 Economic Function 22 3.2.1 Economic Structure 24 3.2.2 Labour Market Profile 25 3.2.3 Economic Strategy 31 3.3 Social Function 33 3.3.1 Household incomes and housing choice 33 3.3.2 Deprivation and social structure 33 3.4 Housing Function and Sub-Markets 39 3.4.1 Housing Function 39 3.4.2 Housing Sub-Markets 45
4.0 Reference Area 55
4.1 Introduction 55 4.2 Summary 55 4.3 Migration 56 4.3.1 Net migration 56 4.3.2 Migration Linkages 58 4.3.3 Migration-Based Reference Area 60
4.4 Travel to Work 62 4.4.1 Context 62 4.4.2 Employment centres 62 4.4.3 Net commuting flows 63 4.4.4 Commuting patterns 64 4.4.5 Distance travelled to work 64 4.4.6 Travel to work patterns 64
5.0 Drivers of Change 75
5.1 Introduction 75 5.2 Summary 75 5.2.1 Economic Trends 75 5.2.2 Demographic Trends 76 5.2.3 Social Trends 78 5.2.4 Governance and Policy Drivers 78 5.2.5 Micro-Level Drivers 79 5.2.6 Key Outcomes 79 5.2.7 Future Trajectory 80 5.3 Regional Trends 81 5.3.1 Regional economic trends 81 5.3.2 Demographic trends 90 5.3.3 Social trends 93 5.4 Sub-regional drivers 96 5.4.1 Industrialisation, De-Industrialisation and Changing Urban Form 96 5.4.2 Governance and Municipalism 104 5.4.3 Public policy 107 5.4.4 Demographic trends 115 5.5 Localised/neighbourhood drivers 126 5.5.1 Introduction 126 5.5.2 Housing design and mixed use environments 126 5.5.3 Area stigma 130 5.5.4 Environmental issues and crime 133 5.5.5 Demography and insularity 134 5.5.6 Spiral of decline 137 5.5.7 Policy response: area based programmes 142 5.5.8 Policy response: housing market restructuring 143
6.0 Neighbourhood Clusters 145
6.1 Neighbourhoods and housing market renewal 145 6.2 ‘At risk’ areas 146 6.3 Neighbourhood function and trajectory 149 6.3.1 Housing market weakness 150 6.3.2 Neighbourhood cohesion 155
6.3.3 Social exclusion and deprivation 158 6.3.4 Environment and access to services 161 6.3.5 Neighbourhood typologies 164 6.4 Conclusions 164
7.0 Key Policy & Investment Context 167
7.1 Introduction 167 7.2 Regional Spatial Policy 167 7.3 Housing Development 168 7.4 Housing Policy and Investment 169 7.5 Neighbourhood Renewal Activity 172 7.6 Economic Strategy 173 7.7 Transport Strategy 174
8.0 Conclusions and Phase Two Recommendations 176
8.1 Conclusions 176 8.1.1 Policy-Off Scenarios 176 8.2 Phase Two Recommendations - Knowledge Gaps 177
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION
This document constitutes a final report on research undertaken as part of the Phase One work on the development of the prospective Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area (HMRA).
The aims of this Phase One research were to develop the evidence base and strategic context for the proposed Housing Market Renewal Area to inform the Housing Market Assessment (HMA).
The research was undertaken by a consortium led by ECOTEC Research & Consulting Ltd., including CSR Partnership Ltd, the Centre for Urban and Regional Studies (CURS) at the University of Birmingham, and JDT/Mott McDonald.
1.1 Background to the Phase One Research
The 2003 West Midlands Regional Housing Strategy (RHS) identified the Black Country and Telford as one of two areas (the other being the Eastern Corridor of Birmingham-Solihull) facing a potential risk of low demand for certain property types and neighbourhoods.
The identification of these two areas followed the advent of two Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders in the West Midlands - the Birmingham-Sandwell Pathfinder (‘Urban Living’) and the North Staffordshire Pathfinder (‘Renew’). Both of which will now receive substantial Government funding from ODPM, subject to the scheme updates due later this year.
The proposed HMRA falls within the Central housing markets area identified in the Regional Strategy as one of two focal areas for action in the region where the potential is identified for the Strategy to deliver wider impact than on the target locality itself. This area involves the Black Country, Birmingham and Coventry and the areas most directly influenced by these markets running west and east - including the high price commuter belt and adjacent rural areas.
The West Midlands Regional Housing Board (RHB) has since allocated funding - over the period 2004/05 to 2005/06 - for the establishment of a prospectus for integrated public investment to tackle housing market weakness and changing markets in the prospective Black Country, Telford HMRA. The development of the prospectus will involve in particular:
the identification of specific housing market renewal areas where the market is malfunctioning and is likely to continue to do in the absence of some intervention;
identification of the drivers affecting changing demand within the intervention area neighbourhoods; and
The development of proposals for housing-led investment that are integrated with the wider policy framework for the Black Country (including the ‘Black Country Vision
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2033’ and Spatial Framework) and Telford (including Telford’s ‘Economic Development Vision and Strategic Framework’).
The expectation is that investment in the proposed HMRA would initially be funded through the West Midlands Regional Housing Pot, and subsequently through a second round of the Housing Market Renewal Fund (as part of the next Comprehensive Spending Review), via a long-term programme agreed with ODPM and directed through the Regional Housing Board.
Responsibility for the development of the prospectus is held by the HMRA Steering Group - a cross-authority partnership between the four Black Country local authorities and Telford & Wrekin Borough Council - with Wolverhampton City Council acting as the accountable body.
The Phase One research - presented in this report - represents an initial phase of research undertaken to inform the process of developing a prospectus for the proposed HMRA - in Phase Two.
1.2 Housing Market Assessment (HMA)
The Phase One research has been informed by the Housing Market Assessment (HMA) Manual - developed to provide local authorities and their partners with a framework for better understanding how housing markets operate - and specifically for analysing the supply/demand dynamic at the sub-regional level. The HMA identifies ten steps (see Figure 1.1). The Phase One research has focused particularly on Phase Two of the HMA process involving:
Step 3: Analysis of the strategic context Step 4: Analysis of key economic and demographic trends Step 5: Identification of the function of the area
1.3 Aims, Objectives and Scope of the Phase One Research
The scope of the Phase One work on developing the prospective HMRA has been fundamentally governed by the requirement for interim reporting in January 2005 to the Regional Housing Board of indicative public sector investment for the Regional Housing Strategy 2005.
The primary aim for Phase One has, therefore, been to provide the RHB with a suitable case for investment - recognising that this will subsequently need to carry through into Ministerial approval in the context of the 2005 RHS.
Phase One has also had the objectives of:
Enabling scrutiny by ODPM and the Audit Commission to be successfully accomplished; and
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Ensuring that the proposed HMRA is recognised and integrated with the RES, RPG and sub-regional strategies for the Black Country and Telford.
In pursuing these aims and objectives, Phase One has involved two key components, or stages:
1. Stage One: the development of an evidence base to support the rationale for the proposed HMRA and to guide the development of an early intervention programme; and
2. Stage Two: identification of the strategic development framework that will encompass the existing and emerging policy and investment context within which Housing Market Renewal will operate.
The objectives and scope of these two stages of work are outlined in more detail in the following sections.
1.3.1 Stage One: Development of the Evidence Base
Stage 1 has had the following four objectives in developing the evidence base for the HMRA:
1. to refine the definitions of the proposed Housing Market Renewal Area - including:
identification of sub-markets within the proposed HMRA districts and their hinterland; identification of the role/function of the proposed HMRA and its sub-markets in relation to the regional context
2. To provide a provisional assessment of the drivers of market change in the HMRA in order to start to identify: “what is wrong with the Black Country and Telford markets and how can this be expected to change in future?”.
It is intended that a more robust assessment of drivers of change - informed by additional surveys - should be undertaken as part of a specific work programme as part of Phase Two of the HMRA prospectus development;
3. to identify the gaps in the knowledge base that will need to be filled to frame market interventions for the proposed HMRA - to inform the specification of new research as part of Phase Two of the HMRA prospectus development; and
4. To start to identify clusters of neighbourhoods with similar functions, social base, urban form and environment - informed by the housing sub-markets identified.
1.3.2 Stage Two: Identification of the Strategic Development Framework
Stage Two has had the following objectives in identifying the strategic development framework for the proposed HMRA:
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1. To review the current policy and investment framework relating to the proposed HMRA and, in particular, key policy aspirations for the sub-region. In particular, the review has sought to identify to what extent the policy and investment framework reinforces market fundamentals (working with the grain) or seeks to alter them;
2. to engage key stakeholders in the process of developing the proposed HMRA and, in particular, to identify and understand their aspirations for the proposed HMRA;
3. to identify the scope and scale of intervention required as part of an early action programme;
4. to make recommendations as regards the prioritisation and sequencing of early actions; and
5. To make recommendations for developing the prospectus and investment programme in Phase Two.
This report presents the research findings in relation to Stage One and the review of the policy and investment context undertaken in Stage Two.
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Figure 1.1: Housing Market Assessment - Ten Steps
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1.4 Report Structure
The remainder of the report is structured as follows:
Section 2.0 presents the overall case for the proposed HMRA based on the Phase One research undertaken
Sections 3.0 to 5.0 presents the evidence base identified through Stage One as follows:
Section 3.0 identifies the economic, social and housing function of the area
Section 4.0 identifies the reference area and area of influence of the proposed HMRA.
Section 5.0 identifies the regional, sub-regional and localised or neighbourhood drivers of housing market change in the area
Section 6.0 presents the findings of a first-rung neighbourhood typology analysis of the area
Section 7.0 presents a summary of the key policy and investment context to the proposed HMRA (with a full review included at Annex B)
Section 7.0 presents our conclusions from the evidence base development and policy and investment review and our recommendations for Phase Two - including key knowledge gaps
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2.0 THE CASE FOR HOUSING MARKET RENEWAL
This section presents the case for a Black Country and Telford Housing Market Renewal Area. It is informed by the key findings of the Phase one research set out in this report.
2.1 2.1 The Regional Housing Strategy 2.2 The Birmingham, Black Country sub-region is identified in the Regional Housing Strategy, 2003 as being the West Midlands sub-region - apart from Stoke-on Trent and Coventry - with the most significant issue of changing housing demand - with problems across all tenures and local authority boundaries. The Strategy identifies the Black Country and Telford as being an area at potential risk of low demand for certain property types and neighbourhoods. This is informed by the identification of key trends:
2.1.1 Demand Side Issues
The Regional Strategy identifies key trends with the potential to contribute to a risk of low demand for certain property types and neighbourhoods in the area - including:
low population growth in the region since 1996 - with a net migration effect on the region between 1991 and 2000 fluctuating between a significant outflow of up to 10,000 households per year (due to out-migration to other parts of the UK) and a very small inflow of 1,000 households per year (due to international migration out-flow);
a trend towards decentralisation (‘hollowing-out’) of the region’s population out of the metropolitan areas and into rural districts - particularly of households in the middle of the family cycle and more affluent households with housing choice;
growth of population in the over-65 age group particularly parts of the region including Telford and Wrekin, and to a not insignificant degree in the region’s older industrial areas (including Wolverhampton and Sandwell). Demographic ageing has implications for the type of housing required (e.g. increased demand for modern sheltered and very sheltered accommodation) and the turnover of properties (likely to increase in the near future as the population ages) - potentially leading to significant neighbourhood change and low demand effects - particularly, but not exclusively, amongst currently owner-occupied properties; and
a growing younger population - particularly amongst black and minority ethnic communities and in the region’s older industrial areas - raising particular issues regarding access to affordable housing, supported housing for vulnerable young people, and the need to understand young people’s housing aspirations.
2.1.2 Supply Side Issues
The Regional Housing Strategy also identifies key trends in housing supply of significance to the area:
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Tenure Patterns The following trends relating to tenure patterns:
the lowest levels of private sector housing in the region occur in Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Walsall (and Birmingham) - with the poorest areas of private stock condition found in the Black Country (and Birmingham, Coventry, Stoke on Trent and Herefordshire);
a rapid growth in the region’s Housing Association sector - accounting for 36% of all dwellings in the social rented sector in 2001 and projected to rise with future development and further stock transfer;
an increased rate of annual housing demolitions across the region in recent years (to 3,509 in 2001/02); and
a disproportionate role for social rented housing in the Black Country conurbation which limits the capacity to alter geographical patterns of residential behaviour and deprivation within the region.
House Prices The following trends relating to house prices:
a dramatic variation in average house prices across the region with an increasing gap between highest and lowest price areas in recent years - with significant consequences for patterns of deprivation and housing need in the region. The lowest value properties are concentrated in the West Midlands conurbation and other areas suffering from industrial decline. The districts with the highest concentration of dwellings in low council tax bands are in the metropolitan districts, the North Staffordshire districts, Telford and Wrekin and older coalfield areas.
average prices of terraced houses which have not kept pace with those of all dwellings; and
A concentration of affordability problems in higher house price areas - and in particular neighbourhoods with a high demand generated locally from communities with strong locational preferences (e.g. black and minority ethnic communities in Birmingham).
Community Cohesion and Cultural Diversity The Strategy identifies particular issues of social deprivation and social polarisation across the region. This is a particular issue for Birmingham and the Black Country where the region’s minority ethnic groups are concentrated. The strategy identifies a need to develop the housing choices available to lower income households from the black and minority ethnic community - and to alter patterns of social polarisation through the creation of sustainable communities which are attractive to different groups.
Refugees and Asylum Seekers The Strategy identifies as a particular need to consider the continuing and longer-term housing opportunities for asylum seekers and refugees - in a way that does not create tensions or limit their
14 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 opportunities. Closer liaison with the Home Office and National Asylum Support Service (NASS) is identified as important in achieving this.
2.2.1 2.1.3 Key Priorities
Based on the trends identified, the Strategy identifies a number of key priorities:
To reflect changing households and needs - in terms of household size and structure and changing demographic patterns - at the same time as using housing as a key driver of demographic and economic change to deliver the objectives of the Regional Spatial Strategy;
To create areas of choice - to turn those parts of the region currently associated with dysfunctional markets and out-migration such as that experienced by the Black Country into increasingly successful housing markets that attract in-migration - thereby stemming out-migration from the region;
To provide pathways of choice and meet housing aspirations - to diversify the existing housing stock and provide local housing pathways to create sustainable communities - for example by introducing a mix of tenures, property types, sizes and values; and
An integrated approach - to deliver a long-term, integrated strategy to deliver sustainable communities - in which housing is one element in addressing social exclusion and as a driver of neighbourhood change and environmental improvement.
As regards the Birmingham, Black Country sub-region, The Strategy identifies the need to introduce greater variety into the sub-region’s housing markets and to grow attractive neighbourhoods. This will involve an assessment and prioritisation of the viability of neighbourhoods and action to manage the decline and renewal of neighbourhoods as well as the urban renaissance of the sub-region more broadly.
Key priorities identified for the Black Country are to deliver an urban renaissance, respond to low demand, raise the quality of affordable housing, deliver housing market renewal and meet the needs and aspirations of BME communities, asylum seekers and refugees.
Telford is identified as a priority within the rural areas to the west and south of the Black Country where priorities are to meet the needs of low income households (through social housing provision) and address poor housing conditions.
The strategy identifies a need for intervention in the area beyond housing intervention - involving integration with economic development and regeneration policies.
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2.3 2.2 Rationale for the Selection of the Black Country and Telford
Black Country and Telford Linkages … The Black Country and Telford represent the industrial heritage of not just the region but the country. Whilst the two areas are physically separate they are linked through economic and social factors. Telford has travel to work links with Wolverhampton, to which it is closest, and to a lesser extent with Dudley. In migration terms, there are links to Wolverhampton and also Birmingham. This suggests that the links between the Black Country and Telford extend both ways, stemming in the past from the history of Telford as a New town rehousing migrants from the conurbation (but still reflected in migration patterns), and more recently from its role as a location for new housing which at least in part serves commuter as well as local employment markets. 2.3.1 2.3.2 Widespread problem… The requirement for a Black Country and Telford Phase One Study is not to identify the most deprived neighbourhoods, important though this it. Rather it is to understand the form, function and trajectory of its micro-markets, to inform action to address the weakest markets. Additionally, any intervention area has to be drawn not just around the weakest neighbourhoods but around an area that best contributes to the housing market renewal of the area as a whole. An HMRA would be important in contributing to the objectives of the Black Country Study and Regional Spatial Strategy.
The starting point regarding the Black Country is that despite its size, it is polycentric in nature - unlike neighbouring Birmingham with its clear-cut divide around its inner city and outwards or Telford’s New Town footprint. This has manifested itself in the way urban dynamics have been understood in the Black Country and in the extent to which the public policy as a driver of market change has shaped it too.
Whilst it has been commonplace to generalise about the Black Country’s dependence on low-value manufacturing, discussions of social and related market patterns have arguably been obscured until recent years by administrative boundaries. Thus Sandwell has been seen in terms of a largely homogenous pattern of deprivation and has been targeted for most of the regeneration funding packages available since the 1980s. The intensity of poverty in eastern Wolverhampton has secured the borough SRB schemes and an NDC. The more affluent neighbourhoods of Walsall and Dudley have seemingly rendered them more ‘manageable’ as districts.
Yet this focus on four separate districts, with Sandwell at the apex of regeneration funding support, has arguably not served the wider interests of the conurbation well. Fortunately the advent of bodies such as the Black Country Consortium and greatly enhanced joint working on a range of fronts have changed perspectives very considerably, and this is manifesting itself in the Black Country Study. For the first time, detailed thematic studies are revealing a wider, more complex and more urgent picture of urban change.
As regards Telford, housing market problems are particularly evident on the former New Town estates in the south of Telford - Woodside, Brookside and Sutton Hill - displaying indicators of poor demand, including abandonment. These areas of south Telford are the focus for the Borough’s Local Area Agreement.
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2.3.3 The headline picture of prices and voids… The primary characteristics of the housing market in the Black Country are a strong and uniform concentration of low value private housing together with a high level of social rented housing. There is a remarkable absence of large areas of higher value and aspirational housing of the kind that might be expected and which are present, for example, in parts of north and south west Birmingham.
Figures 2.3 shows the only significant areas of higher values in the Black Country are found in the fringe areas of Aldridge and Streetly in eastern Walsall, Stourbridge/Halesowen and Kingswinford in Dudley, and Tettenhall in Wolverhampton. A core low price area (shown as a dotted line) can be identified (Figure 2.4).
Within a band of higher values and some areas of very high value that surround the low value areas that predominate in the Black Country (running in an arc from Lichfield in the north east through Stafford, South Staffordshire and Bridgnorth, and into Wyre Forest and Bromsgrove to the south (Figure 2.1)), south Telford stands out as an isolated but similar low value area to the west (Figures 2.5 and 2.6).
More significantly, prices in the Black Country and south Telford are generally losing ground when compared with the region or surrounding areas (Figure 2.3). Buying in the Black Country, especially in Wolverhampton, Sandwell or Walsall, means accepting lower price appreciation than in most other parts of the region.
Housing demand and supply in the area are not, in general, out of balance in the way that is evident in some northern housing markets that have experienced similar levels of decline. In part this is because the opportunities for decentralisation of both employment and population have been more strongly restricted by planning policies and poor transport links, although the potential for problems of this kind is present.
Thus the Black Country and Telford area does not presently have particularly high void levels and this is true of its existing Pathfinder, the Urban Living area. Even so, Figure 2.8 shows a significant skew in the distribution of void properties (all tenures) within the Black Country, with a concentration to the north. Localities with voids above 10% in 2001 include much of Wolverhampton’s inner core, a problematic band of neighbourhoods across central Bilston, and the low demand neighbourhoods around Low Hill. In Walsall the pattern of voids extends northwards from the town centre out to the large municipal estates of Beechdale and Blakenhall (which has undergone Large Scale Voluntary Transfer), In the south of the Black Country, concentrations of voids are much more localised, in Lye and the central Dudley estates; and Windmill Lane in Sandwell. These commonly reflect the location of unpopular flatted estates. This better performance in the southern part of the Black Country reflects the more buoyant market position in Dudley and the impact in Sandwell of vigorous clearance and new build rates over the last 20 years to restructure the housing market. They also reflect the more pronounced current need for social housing in a period where the ratio of house prices to incomes is abnormally high.
Figure 2.7 shows pockets of high void rates in south Telford - which is described in Telford and Wrekin’s Housing Strategy as suffering issues of abandonment.
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2.3.4 BME growth: a key driver… A particular factor - recognised in the draft 2005 Regional Housing Strategy - particularly relevant to the Black Country, is the growth of BME communities. In parts of the Black Country, BME communities are migrating out from traditional inner city locations, especially into wider Wolverhampton and across the southern part of Sandwell. This is far less apparent in the northern Black Country core of mainly former local authority estates, now often highly diversified in tenure, where there are questions over future levels of demand and sustainability. Some BME communities, such as Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities, remain concentrated in tightly defined terraced neighbourhoods where the houses are often unfit. Yet these impoverished communities are rapidly expanding resulting in high levels of overcrowding. Responding to this household growth is a key issue in parts of the Black Country.
2.3.5 Framing the intervention area in the Black Country and Telford … The overall analysis confirms that in the Black Country, there is a large central area of housing market weakness, which forms a rough X-shape (Figure 2.9). It extends from the existing Urban Living Pathfinder up to Wolverhampton through the Black Country core, together with another zone of weakness running from Walsall (including areas to the north of the centre) through the core and on to Brierley Hill and Lye in Dudley. This area suffers from low values, a concentration of homogenous and relatively unattractive housing, poor environments, and high levels of deprivation.
At a finer grain, this large, and at first uniform, area breaks down into two main types of neighbourhood. The first type is former local authority estates, now often highly diversified in tenure, where there are questions over future levels of demand and sustainability - not least because BME communities have low representation, (who provide one of the main sources of future potential population growth) in these areas. Problems of sustainability are likely to be compounded by the resale of dwellings bought under the Right to Buy into private renting. The long-term impact of the Right to Buy, in relation to demographic change, age stock condition and marginal owner occupation, needs to be explored through further research.
The second type of neighbourhood is mainly inner city and contains private housing - often of low quality, and occupied in some cases by households which need larger dwellings, and in others by households who cannot afford maintenance and repair. In combination, these neighbourhoods present few or no opportunities for regeneration without intervention. The potential for gentrification is limited by dwelling types, by poor environments, and by the difficulty of access to services, brought about by the fragmented historical settlement pattern in the Black Country.
Overall, concern must be focused more on the northern sub-markets within the Black Country. Both Wolverhampton and Walsall’s inner cities are facing difficulty, but in Wolverhampton the problems are more acute at neighbourhood level and are multi-tenure in scope. In Walsall there is a housing re- supply issue for the expanding but spatially constrained BME population facing unfitness and overcrowding. Both northern municipal zones face demand issues due to limited inflow to their stigmatised and peripheral environments. Wolverhampton's municipal estates have been subject to restructuring but both the Wolverhampton and Walsall municipal areas and the South Telford estates will need comprehensive intervention over the next 10-15 years.
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The focus in the weak northern Black Country core towns' zone which contains further ex-council estates will need to be in the Bilston and Tipton areas and other inter-war estates such as 'The Priory' in Dudley. As noted, some of these areas are forming barriers to BME migration within the conurbation and suffer from social problems and poor environments. To the south, the Sandwell inner city is problematic but forms part of the Urban Living Pathfinder area. There are, however, smaller areas of weakness such as Brierley Hill that emerge from the finer-grained neighbourhood typologies.
In Telford, the analysis has highlighted problems of market weakness and social exclusion in the south Telford estates associated with Radburn style layouts and poor dwelling design or construction. These estates (Woodside, Brookside and Sutton Hill) can be identified as requiring particular investment - as prioritised in the Borough’s Housing Strategy on the basis of being “of questionable construction standard” and of displaying clear signs of market failure, including abandonment. The estates are identified as having become increasingly difficult to manage with serious and complex issues of decline including heavy stigma within Telford. Issues faced are:
Inherent design weaknesses, with the estates based on Radburn layout - with subsequent problems of crime, anti-social behaviour, vandalism, green space with no amenity value and lack of appropriate parking;
Marginal owner-occupation and high levels of private renting - similar to most of inner-city Black Country;
Demand for housing of all tenures considerably below other housing areas in Telford;
Commercial and community facilities in very poor condition and failing badly;
Significant social problems with indicators of generally high levels of deprivation and pockets of particularly severe disadvantage; and
Heavy stigma, resident dissatisfaction and limited inflow. In this sense, South Telford is a microcosm of the Black Country core.
The problems inherent to these estates are such that a clearance programme on the New Town estates has started for the first time - with approximately 240 units being cleared in South Woodside. Woodside is prioritised for regeneration investment in the Borough - as suffering from particularly high levels of deprivation (amongst the 10% most deprived estates in the country) and containing poor quality housing, much of which is unfit or fails to meet decency standards.
2.3.6 Future Trajectory… The trends in the Black Country economy and in the residential base are well-documented in this paper and in the wider body of research conducted through the Black Country study. Strategically, the main trends affecting the Black Country which are likely to continue are detailed below:
There is likely to be a continued decentralisation of population from the core of the conurbation which will not be mitigated by BME household growth or international migration;
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The policy off demographic projections highlighted in this report show that this decline will not be spatially even across the conurbation. The North Black Country, with its large economic and residential hinterland and its more conventional inner-city characteristics is projected to lose most population. The municipal areas within Walsall were the only locations to lose population between 1991-2001 (-17.3%). The policy off position predicts a population of only 207,000 for the City of Wolverhampton by 2031;
Polarisation is likely to become more evident in both the Black Country and Telford, as manufacturing continues to diminish as a major employer and intense concentrations of people with low or no qualifications remain. Intervention to restructure the skills profile of the workforce in line with current labour force requirements and to address the aspirations of young people will be key;
Analysis of educational attainment, incomes and the employment of residents in the Black Country shows that the process of selective out migration over the past three decades has already taken its toll, leaving behind largely those with little choice who are unable to move elsewhere. Without intervention, the prognosis for these areas is of further slow decline, related to patterns of demographic structure, offset but not mitigated by the in migration of BME groups. Competition from areas elsewhere in the region with better employment opportunities and more attractive housing and environments is likely to ensure that those with choice continue to move out or do not come to live in the area. Relatively speaking, this may increase demand and prices in the more attractive parts of the Black Country boroughs;
A failure to restructure the residential and environmental offer of the Black Country is perhaps the greatest threat to achieving the aspirations of Regional Planning Guidance which seeks to reduce the net migration from the conurbation to zero in the medium/long term. Given the industrial/employment structure in the core of the Black Country, there is likely to be an increase in the supply of poor quality land resulting from factory closures. This could be extensive enough to result in a progressive collapse in the urban form and the established relationship between land uses. A collapse in the urban form on this scale has been a driver of housing abandonment in Manchester/Salford and Stoke-on-Trent; and
In the absence of measures to restructure the housing market there will be risks that issues will arise in relation to social cohesion as BME household growth occurs at the same time as demographic changes affecting the stability of some 1930s council estates.
The longer-term future of the south Telford estates without intervention is also problematic. The regeneration of Woodside, which is already underway, has raised expectations and impact on market values across wider areas of south Telford. But as relatively poor quality areas within an environment which is in overall terms relatively attractive, these areas have already developed concentrations of low income households who are either without employment or in poorly paid jobs which are difficult to access because of the physical layout of the New Town - with areas of employment growth located to the north of the Borough. Those who are owners struggle to meet repair and related costs. There is a strong likelihood that these problems will persist and without intervention they may develop and impact on surrounding areas, which at present do not experience them to such a serious extent.
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Figure 2.1: Black Country: Median Price by Postcode Sector 2003 Figure 2.2: Black Country: % Change in Prices 1996-2003
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Figure 2.3: Average House Price 2003 by Output Area Figure 2.4: Black Country: Unit Postcode Prices, 2003
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Figure 2.5: Telford: Average House Prices, 2003 Figure 2.6: Telford, Price Changes (All Stock), 1996- 2003
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Figure 2.7: Void Rate All Stock (2001 Census) Figure 2.8: Percentage of Household Spaces which are Vacant, Black Country, 2001
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Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Figure 2.9: Housing Market Weakness Domain
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3.0 AREA CHARACTER AND FUNCTION
In this section key aspects of socio-economic function of the Black Country Telford area are briefly considered culminating in the identification of eight housing sub-markets.
3.1 3.1 Summary
The following key points are identified:
3.1.1 Economic Function
As regards the economic function of the area:
The core of the Black Country and to a large extent south Telford is still defined by an industrial working class dependent on declining economic sectors and without many of the skills needed in the contemporary labour market;
These declining sectors have low value-added and lock the Black Country in its diverging trajectory from the rest of the region and even Birmingham. The Black Country Spatial Framework being developed will seek to deliver a major economic transformation of the conurbation based on integration of investment in key employment sites and urban centres, supported by environmental, housing and transport investments.
Despite the vulnerability of its manufacturing base, Telford’s economy has performed well in regional terms and is identified in the Regional Spatial Strategy as a sub-regional focus for economic development. In particular, RPG identifies the Borough as a strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments. Telford and Wrekin's Economic Strategy - focused on seven target economic clusters - envisages expansion of value-added manufacturing and knowledge-based services, and an expanded workforce of 110,000 individuals by 2020;
The Wolverhampton-Telford High Technology Corridor recognises the potential of the sub-region to attract investment in high-technology and high-value added activities - including building on Telford’s existing polymer engineering and ICT sector base;
The distribution of skills levels across the HMRA shows a lack of higher skills levels (NVQ4+) across almost the whole of the Black Country and also south Telford. In fact skills levels are generally very low with a high proportion of the population having below NVQ2 level qualifications - particularly in the Black Country core area. The Black Country Spatial Framework will seek to attract higher skilled workers into the conurbation through provision of high quality housing in higher quality environment. Similarly, Telford and Wrekin’s Economic Strategy makes provision for investment in infrastructure and high quality housing to ensure a more highly skilled workforce to support the Borough’s economic development. However, a key issue will be to link the more deprived south Telford former New Town estates to new economic opportunities alongside investment in renewal of the physical fabric.
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3.1.2 Social Function
As regards the social function of the area:
The Black Country can be broadly characterised as a declining, low- income conurbation. It also demonstrates particular forms of social and economic polarisation that impact on, and are in turn exacerbated by the operation of the housing market. This is due in part to the ‘sorting effect’ of the residential housing market: a desirable area commands a price premium; poorer households are clustered together in more affordable and invariably poorer quality locations1;
There are clusters of neighbourhoods amongst the most deprived in the country that essentially define the social characteristics of a central zone of the Black Country which contains around half its population – some 566,000 people. Importantly, its scale and its problems have been masked by administrative boundaries, despite being in part defined by the fact that it straddles them;
Income differentiates south Telford from the rest of urban Telford, with disadvantaged south Telford residents physically distant from the growth nodes towards the north of urban Telford. The south Telford wards of Woodside, Brookside and Cuckoo Oak - particularly Woodside - are characterised by indicators of social and economic disadvantage including: high unemployment rates (up to 43% in some parts), low skills levels (with up to 56% with no qualifications in some parts), low skilled occupations (up to 60% in some areas), child poverty indicators and poor health indicators.
3.1.3 Housing Function and Sub-Markets
As regards the housing function of the area:
Ten housing sub-markets can be identified in the Black Country and urban Telford - based on groups of similar neighbourhoods based on the ‘urban grain’ of the conurbation (dominant housing tenure and property type and period of development in the last century), and adjusted to reflect socio-economic factors, neighbourhood function, and housing market performance.
The eight Black Country sub-markets can be considered in terms of four broad categories - the first three of which would provide the focus for the HMA - and which can be characterised by a generally successful suburban fringe as distinct from a core area which matches closely with nearly all domains of the Government’s IMD 2004:
Inner-city areas based on three major historic centres of the Black Country;
Two municipal areas based on the original footprint of large socially rented areas located on the periphery;
Freestanding Black Country towns with a loosely distinguished northern and southern component; and
1 Prime Minister’s Strategy Office and ODPM (2005), Improving the Prospects of People Living in Areas of Multiple Deprivation in England, page 50. 22 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
A single suburban fringe containing nearly half (46.8%) of the total population of the Black Country.
Within urban Telford a clear distinction can be made between the south Telford New Town estates and the rest of Telford. Within these estates - based on Radburn-style layout - described as being “of questionable construction standard”, with clear signs of market failure, including abandonment. Issues include low house prices, limited sales and indicators of deprivation (particularly on the Woodside, Brookside and Sutton Hill estates), insularity and low neighbourhood satisfaction.
Figure 3.1 shows the sub-markets identified.
3.2 3.2 Economic Function
There were a total 1.016 million jobs in Birmingham, the Black Country & Telford in 2003 according to the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) Survey.
Figure 3.2 uses 2001 census data to show the main concentrations of this employment within these areas. These are the central Birmingham wards and the traditional core areas of the Black Country, especially the industrial corridor stretching from Smethwick through to Wolverhampton city centre. There is also a concentration in Telford town centre.
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Figure 3.1: Black Country and Telford Sub-Markets
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Figure 3.2: Principal locations of employment in the Black Country and Telford 2001
3.2.1
3.2.2 3.2.3 3.2.4 3.2.5 3.2.6 3.2.7 3.2.8 3.2.9 3.2.10 3.2.11
3.2.12 3.2.1 Economic Structure
Table 3.1 outlines the industrial structure of employment in Telford and Wrekin and the Black Country (Census, 2001). The figures show that manufacturing remains the largest employment sector in the area - accounting for over a quarter of all jobs. The next most significant sectors are the wholesale and retail trade (distribution) and public sector activities.
Table 3.1: Industrial Structure (% of Total Employment), 2001 Census Black Country Telford Agriculture 1.4 0.4 Fishing 0.0 0.0 Mining and quarrying 0.2 0.1 Manufacturing 25.4 25.1 Electricity, gas and water supply 0.6 0.9 Construction 5.8 7.0 Wholesale and retail trade 16.3 18.6 Hotels and catering 4.3 4.1 Transport storage and communication 4.9 6.1 Financial intermediation 3.1 3.3 Real estate, renting and business activities 10.9 9.3 Public administration and defence 8.5 4.3 Education 7.0 6.7 Health and social work 8.0 10.3 Other 3.6 3.9 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 Source: Census 2001, Key Statistics (Table KS11AN)
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3.2.13 3.2.3 Labour Market Profile
Figures 3.4 and 3.5 show employment rates amongst the working age population in the Black Country and Telford. These figures clearly show a core area in the Black Country with low levels of employment surrounded by higher employment areas.
The distribution of skills levels shows a lack of higher skills levels (NVQ4+) across almost the whole of the Black Country and also south Telford (Figures 3.3 and 3.6). In fact skills levels are generally very low with a high proportion of the population having below NVQ2 level qualifications - particularly in the Black Country core area as shown in Figure 3.8. Some 50% of the workforce of the Black Country Telford sub-region are only qualified to NVQ1 or have no qualifications. Telford falls short of the regional average for NVQ4 and above skills (14.2% against 16.2%). Dudley and Telford are respectively above and below the regional average for employees in managerial and senior positions (13.3% region; 13% Telford; 14.1% Dudley) but Walsall, Sandwell and Wolverhampton are the three worst performing labour market areas in the West Midlands, against this criterion.
Wolverhampton and also Walsall are highly polarised in terms of qualifications, both with striking east-west splits reflecting the suburban watershed. Within Sandwell, Bearwood is the only neighbourhood with more than a quarter of the population with higher-level qualifications and is similar in profile to the rest of inner suburban Birmingham.
Figure 3.9 shows much of the core areas of the Black Country falls within the worst 10% of localities nationally in terms of educational indicators. There are also concentrations in south Telford (Figure 3.12). The Black Country Study has identified that only 14% of residents in the Black Country are in social classes A and B compared to 22% nationally.
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Figure 3.3: Higher-level qualifications, % of population with NVQ Figure 3.4: % of working age population who are in employment, Level 4+ Black Country 2001 Black Country 2001
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Figure 3.5: % of working age population who are Figure 3.6: Higher-Level Qualifications, % of population with Employed Urban Telford 2001 NVQ Level 4+ Urban Telford 2001
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Figure 3.7: Black Country: Unskilled/Semi-Skilled Workers, Black Country 2001 Figure 3.8: Black Country: Qualifications Levels (NVQ 1 or No), Black Country 2001
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Figure 3.9: Black Country: IMD 2004 Education Domain Figure 3.10: Black Country: IMD 2004 Income Domain
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Figure 3.11: Urban Telford IMD 2004 Income Domain Figure 3.12: Urban Telford IMD 2004 Education Domain
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3.2.14 3.2.3 Economic Strategy
The Black Country The Spatial Framework being developed for the Black Country seeks to reverse out-migration, raise income levels and change the socio-economic mix of the conurbation. A key element of the Spatial Framework will be an optimal economic strategy for the Black Country and its spatial implications. The Long-Term Economic Strategy developed for the Black Country to 20332 aims to raise incomes in the Black Country to the national average outside London by achieving:
sectoral change towards higher value added activities and with more employment in the finance/business services, arts and leisure and logistics sectors;
a revision of the occupational structures - with higher proportions of managers and professionals; and
workforce development - through a non-conventional strategy focused on major upskilling
This will be in addition to activity to reverse population decline - with a target of 200,000 additional people by 2030 half of whom are of working age - and activity to encourage innovation and productivity.
A major challenge for the Black Country - identified through the Black Country Study3 -is to deliver sites of sufficient quality and accessibility required for industrial restructuring - given the complex urban form that has developed around the traditional industrial base offering “widespread but piecemeal development opportunities, hampered by the continuing legacy of soil pollution and land ownership patterns”.
The strategy therefore identifies an action plan focused on five areas - including (in addition to business engagement, development of knowledge economy infrastructure, and development of leisure and arts facilities and events):
land assembly to deliver sites of high environmental quality with central sites for office development and off-centre sites for manufacturing and logistics;
complete renewal of the environment with 3,000 hectares and 12m sq.m. of modern floorspace developed every 15 years, development of an urban park, delivery of quality urban design (spaces and buildings), management of environmental impacts and development of environmental goods and services; and
Accessibility of sites - with reasonable access to major roads and motorways identified as a priority.
2 GHK (2004) The Black Country in 2003: A Long Term Economic Strategy 3 GHK (July 2004) ‘Spatial Implications of the Proposed Economic Strategy – Version 3 32 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The Black Country Study provides an indication of the scale of development implied by the Economic Strategy (Table 3.2). Research has recently been commissioned to identify the capacity for delivery of employment land.
The Black Country’s urban centres are accorded a central role in the delivery of the Black Country Vision, the regeneration of the conurbation and the diversification and modernisation of its economy towards knowledge economy and service sectors. For example, the Black Country Study identifies that whilst some office provision will be accommodated in off-centre business parks along public transport corridors, the majority of jobs are expected to be located in urban centres. The Vision envisages a polycentric City made up of four strategic thriving and distinctive retail and commercial city centres each playing a unique role:
- West Bromwich home to THE PUBLIC - Walsall known for its culture - Wolverhampton known for its universities and R&D base - Brierley Hill known for its shopping - (plus Dudley transformed into a national icon for urban living)
This would represent a concentration of future development and employment in and around these strategic centres (whereas current employment is more dispersed amongst the larger number of district centres in the Black Country).
Telford Telford is identified in the Regional Spatial Strategy as a sub-regional focus for development (including housing) on the basis of its potential to attract new investment. RPG identifies Telford as a strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments. Although there is a recognized need to define and clarify Telford's role in the wider regional and sub-regional context ('Telford First' Business Plan). Designation of the Wolverhampton-Telford High Technology Corridor recognises Telford’s potential to develop high-technology and high value added activities - particularly building on the Borough’s existing polymer engineering and ICT sector base.
Telford and Wrekin's vision is for Telford to be re-established as a major sustained growth point in the region (in terms of population and economic activity) - with a vision of a diversified economy by 2020 with strength in certain knowledge sector industries (value added manufacturing), certain services and an expanded workforce of 110,000 individuals.
Attraction of highly skilled workers (as residents or commuters - the Borough has a high rate of net in-commuting) is identified as key to the development of the Borough’s high tech industrial base. SQW note that the Borough already has high quality executive housing stock and that the housing land supply provides opportunities to create high quality residential environments - although there is a potential gap in housing supply for young professionals which the Borough will seek to address.
Establishment of the Telford First Regeneration Company and restructuring of the Telford Development Agency as an independent economic development company aims to co-ordinate investment priorities towards delivery of the Borough’s economic strategy - amongst participating (English Partnerships, the Borough and AWM) partners and non-participating partners (e.g. the
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Housing Corporation). A main priority will be the re-planning and re-development of Telford Town Centre - as a critical project for driving economic growth.
3.3 3.3 Social Function
The following sections describe the social function of the area in terms of
3.3.1 Household Incomes and Housing Choice
Figure 3.13 shows income levels across Black Country and Telford and the adjoining districts. Wolverhampton has the lowest median income level in the West Midlands region (£13,200). Sandwell also has a low median income level (£13,800). In both cases the mean values are higher, suggesting a range of income levels, but low-income levels are likely to characterise the specific intervention areas within a housing market renewal area. Dudley and Walsall perform better, and Telford better still but all fall some way short of the more affluent areas (e.g. Warwick and Solihull). Income levels are closely related to skills and occupational levels.
Income differentiates the central zone of the Black Country from the rest and south Telford from the rest of urban Telford (see IMD income domain, Figures 3.10 and 3.11). Within the area there are in fact wide variations mainly shaped by the concentrations of terraced housing and social housing which act as natural watersheds. Owner occupation is lower, due to the locations of large council estates and in the terraced areas, a growing private rented sector. The social sector houses generally poor households4. The private rented sector represents transitional use5 by students, some BME groups and young, single person households. 3.3.1 3.3.2 3.3.2 Deprivation and Social Structure
Figure 3.13 maps the Black Country against the overall deprivation index, the IMD 2004. It shows a huge central zone with localities in the worst 10% or 20% nationally, which intertwine an area with around 566,000 people living in it. The spatial extent and fragmented nature of this central zone is of huge strategic significance. Not surprisingly, the central area features strongly in the various IMD health, employment, income domains as well as the education domain as mentioned above.
This concentration of deprived communities in the Black Country is partly due to the concentrations of BME communities, which are particularly (but not uniformly) disadvantaged (see section 5.4.2). It also reflects concentrations of single person households characteristic of the inner city, lower proportions of families with children (Figures 3.16 and 3.17) and also an almost precise match of lone parents with social rented areas within the central zone. Its population is generally younger, although there are also pockets with high elderly populations.
4 In the 1970s the proportion of non-earning households was 11%; in 2002 it was 67% and over half its working age households were workless (Prime Minister’s Strategy Office and ODPM (2005), Improving the Prospects of People Living in Areas of Multiple Deprivation in England, page 50).
5 A survey of privately renting tenants in Sandwell in 1999 found high levels of churning: 39% in their current property less than 12 months, with 28% living in more than 3 properties in the last five years; 41% planning to move in the next 12 months (CSR 2000). Overall, 55% had moved into Sandwell from outside the Borough. Private renting is not confined to low-income areas as can be seen from Figure xx with concentrations in Stourbridge and Halesowen, and Bearwood stretching southwards in affluent Harborne and Edgbaston.
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The south Telford estates reflect the core Black Country skew towards single person and lone parent households, and couples with children. (Figures 3.18 and 3.19) In Madeley North there are pockets of elderly residents. The estates are similarly characterised by high unemployment and low skills levels and have been previously targeted for regeneration through SRB funding. Commercial and community facilities are in very poor condition and are failing badly. Social (and anti-social) issues have become significant. Woodside, Brookside and Sutton Hill in particular have localities within the most 10% of deprived areas nationally according to the IMD 2004. (Figure 3.15). They feature strongly within the employment, income, education and to some extent crime domains of the IMD.
Taken together, the social profile of the south Telford estates, their ex-new town footprint with low values and limited sales is similar to many of the Black Country’s major social estates which are affected by stigma and limited inflow. The SRB evaluations found negative perceptions around Woodside and Sutton Hill.
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Figure 3.13: Household Income 2003, by 2001 Output Area
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Figure 3.14: Black Country: IMD 2004 Overall Ranking Figure 3.15: Urban Telford IMD 2004, Crime Domain
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3.4 Figure 3.16: Black Country Married/cohabiting couples with dependent children Figure 3.17: Black Country One person households as a % of total (2001 Census) 3.5 (2001 Census) 3.6
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3.7 Figure 3.18: Urban Telford One Person Households Figure 3.19: Urban Telford Married/cohabiting couples with As a % of total (2001 Census) dependent children (2001 Census) 3.8
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3.9 3.4 Housing Function and Sub-Markets
This section sets out the housing function of the area and identifies a number of housing sub- markets. Research around housing markets and urban design increasingly identifies market segments within urban areas and conurbations, which for analytical purposes are divided into a number of types of related neighbourhoods which form typologies or zones within the conurbation. This highlights commonality within zones and differences between them, and is important for policy purposes.
3.4.1 Housing Function
As in most Midlands and Northern urban areas, mining and manufacturing industry attracted concentrations of high density, poor quality private rented housing in the Black Country which transferred into low value owner occupied stock in the 1950-80 period. From the 1920s, and more rapidly after 1945, further expansion was through a combination of local authority and private sector housing provision, with a strong emphasis on the former arising from the relatively low incomes of those in the area. In many cities, for example in nearby Birmingham, affluent suburbs have emerged through the presence of a critical mass of industrialists, professionals and other groups, but this is rare in the Black Country because of the fragmented nature of the settlement pattern.
The economic history of the Black Country has thus produced a predominantly low value, low income housing stock, vulnerable to changes in demand such as shifting tenure preferences and the desire for better quality. Against any comparator, the proportion of social rented housing in the four Black Country boroughs is exceptionally high (see Figure 3.21). This is a factor of its industrial past and the need for low cost rented housing for those employed in manufacturing industry and also a degree of competition for tenants between Black Country authorities. In contrast, Birmingham’s inner suburban neighbourhoods such as Edgbaston, Harborne, Kings Heath, Moseley, and Selly Oak which form an arc in the south- west of the city, enjoy a varied housing choice with high quality public realm and good local amenities and services including shopping.
Figure 3.22 shows that social rented provision is concentrated in central and eastern Wolverhampton, central and western Walsall, throughout Sandwell, and in the north and east of Dudley. Even more significant is the comparison of Figure 3.23 with Figure 3.22. The latter shows the high-water mark of council housing in 1981. It shows for example that the northern half of Sandwell was heavily dominated by council housing, as were entire neighbourhoods in the northern parts of Wolverhampton and Walsall.
Figure 3.20 shows the dominant dwelling type across the Black Country. The proportion of detached dwellings (which meet some types of housing aspiration especially for families with children) is generally low, and is confined to the fringe higher value areas of private housing notably Stourbridge and Tettenhall. Flats/maisonettes are located in inner city areas and in many council estates such as in Tipton and central Dudley. Terraced dwellings are more prominent in the core Black Country areas, especially inner Wolverhampton and Walsall and Smethwick. There are fairly limited concentrations of these, however, due to:
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The highly dispersed pattern settlement still characterising the Black Country by the high tide of terraced housing around 1920; and
Significant clearance of terraced housing due to its very poor construction standard and the consequent need for an active clearance policy, especially in Sandwell and Wolverhampton6.
A recent study of housing needs in Telford and Wrekin identified key housing trends in the Borough. Clear differences can be identified between several estates in south Telford - where are several neighbourhoods with a socio-economic profile very similar to the core of the Black Country - and the rest of the Borough. These are the mainly new town estates totalling around 7,100 dwellings built in the early 1970s to the largely discredited Radburn-style design (see section 5.5.1) located in the neighbourhoods of Woodside, Brookside, Sutton Hill and Madeley North. Woodside, Brookside and Sutton Hill were built as social housing estates to house people displaced by slum clearance largely from the Black Country.
The housing function of the Borough as a whole and the South Telford New Town estates can be characterised as follows:
The Borough has a buoyant housing market - with the Borough a considerable net gainer from in-migration assessed to be housing generated - with significant levels of daily commuting back to Wolverhampton or the Black Country. Private sector void rates have fallen since 1995, and more rapidly since 1999 to reflect the favourable housing market conditions - although social rented void rates are high.
The Borough is expected to continue to be a major housing (and employment) growth point in the region as identified in the Regional Spatial Strategy and RPG targets to 2011. However, a recent SWOT analysis (SQW, 2004) notes a substantial slow-down in the rate of housing development in the Borough in 2003/04 (600 units) - attributed to a national slowdown in housing development and a review of English Partnership sites (who own some 90% of development land in the Borough). The report also identifies that at traditional densities the current housing land supply is insufficient to deliver RPG housing targets for the Borough - with an estimate that only some 50% of the required units could be delivered;
These overall market trends disguise low demand on South Telford New Town estates - where there are high levels of private renting similar to most of the inner city Black Country levels - and where there are issues of abandonment are identified and areas of high void rates can be identified;
The pattern of tenure in the Borough is increasingly similar to the national average with almost 70% of households owning their home, with the social rented sector a little larger
6 An interesting contrast in this respect is Stoke-on-Trent, which historically has undertaken only limited clearance of terraced housing. Overall an estimated 52% of Stoke-on-Trent’s terraced stock was built before 1880, which is equivalent to 19% of the city’s contemporary stock. In contrast, only an estimated 9% of the terraced stock is pre-1880 in Sandwell, and this is equivalent to just 2% of the Borough’s housing. Source: North Staffordshire housing market assessment, CSR Partnership 2004, page 69.
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than average (about 50% of the stock - with 2,500 identified as statutorily unfit) and the private sector smaller.
South Telford has lower levels of home ownership, more social rented provision and high levels of private renting (with up to 20% of the stock being owned by private landlords in some areas) compared to the rest of the Borough. Owner occupation in the area can be described as ‘marginal’ linked to the ‘fire sale’ of property by the New Town Corporation in the 1980s ;
The Borough has a high proportion of detached and semi-detached properties and a lower proportion of terraced houses and flats. Only 2% of owner occupied dwellings are flats or maisonettes compared to around a quarter of tenanted dwellings.
On the South Telford New Town estates - designed according to Radburn layout - the housing type is mainly (54%) modern terraced (some walled with wood) interspersed with flats/maisonettes. The poor design layout of these estates is linked to problems of crime, antisocial behaviour, vandalism, green space with no amenity value and lack of appropriate parking.
There is a shortage of properties for sale at the first-time buyer end of the market in the Borough due to price rises - including at the lower end of the market - with the average dwelling price in the Borough at the end of 2003 £113,000 - an increase of 22% over the previous year. The Local Plan identifies a need for affordable housing including low-cost market housing and social housing - with a target of 32% of dwellings available for rent or shared ownership via an RSL.
Again these overall figures disguise lower house prices on South Telford New Town estates compared to the rest of the Borough - with prices on a par with the core Black Country sub-markets. Demand for housing of all tenures in the area is considerably below other housing areas in the rest of the Borough with low sales reflecting limited resale of properties bought through the Right to Buy.
Over the years the South Telford estates have become increasingly difficult to manage and today suffer from serious and complex issues of decline including heavy stigma within Telford. The problems inherent to these estates are such that a clearance programme on the New Town estates has started for the first time - with approximately 240 units being cleared in South Woodside. The longer-term future of these estates without intervention is problematic.
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Figure 3.20: Household Accommodation Type, Black Country, 2001
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Figure 3.21: Household Tenure, 2001
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3.9.1 Figure 3.22: Household Tenure, Black Country, 2001 Figure 3.23: Household Tenure, Black Country, 1981
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3.9.2 3.4.2 Housing Sub-Markets
The approach taken here groups similar neighbourhoods based on the ‘urban grain’ of the conurbation: that is, the dominant housing tenure and property type, and the period of development in the last century. These neighbourhood groupings can then be adjusted to reflect socio-economic factors, neighbourhood function, and housing market performance. The lack of a common approach to neighbourhood identification in the Black Country makes this approach to market segmentation difficult to apply here. Nevertheless it is possible to distinguish eight such sub-markets within the Black Country and for our purposes a further two within urban Telford (Figure 3.1). Each of the sub- markets are discussed in turn below. Data for each of the sub-markets is shown in Tables 3.3 to 3.7.
Inner City Sandwell This covers the northern half of Smethwick and the older areas of West Bromwich and Oldbury and accounts for 5.3% of Black Country population. It is also effectively an extension of west Birmingham (hence the Housing Market Renewal cross-boundary link). Smethwick in particular has experienced long-term population loss, collapsing demand for social housing and mounting social problems (see case study in section 5.5.6). This is a factor in the zone’s 18% population loss in the 1980s although there has been a recovery since.
House prices have more than doubled since 1996 but from a low base. There are still problems with high voids in the Windmill Lane area and parts of West Bromwich. Some 12.3% of the stock is private rented. There are localities badly affected by crime. These areas have poor quality terraced and often highly stigmatised housing, with mixed use and poor environments including arterial routes and physical severance of housing areas. Multi-tenure clearance has been actively pursued. West Bromwich is a major regeneration focus for the borough. The recent new build here and in Smethwick has been highly popular in mainly meeting aspirations from the area’s majority and highly varied BME community. The redevelopment of the Cape Hill brewery site can be expected to continue this process.
There is a population skew towards young, single people, recent refugees and pockets of elderly. It has the lowest mobility of the three inner city areas with 10.1% of the population moving home in the year before the 2001 census.
Inner City Wolverhampton This area has a population of 34,465 (3.2% of the Black Country total) with 11 neighbourhoods that equate with the historic centre of the city as it had developed by 1920 in a band to the south and west of the present ring road and an eastern ribbon extending into Heath Town. Much of the stock is high- density terraced housing, with significant numbers of flats built by the local authority in the 1960s following slum clearance. This cosmopolitan area is a microcosm of Birmingham, with a highly diverse BME, refugee and student population in the Whitmore Reans area and large Indian community to the south in Blakenhall. The overall population rose by 4% in the 1990s after a large fall in the 80s - despite the demolition of Blakenhall Gardens. There is a high level of single person households in all neighbourhoods but Blakenhall.
46 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Population turnover is the highest of the sub-markets (18%) partly reflecting the large student market, which is also a factor in the presence of the largest private rented market (21%). Almost a third (32%) is socially rented reflecting the flats located throughout the zone (36%).
Although inner city Wolverhampton has enjoyed the greatest price risesof the sub-market areas identified in the period 1996-2003 (+132%), they are still low for the conurbation. It has one of the highest concentrations of voids in the Black Country. Park Village, a small Victorian neighbourhood to the east is affected by withdrawal of an NASS contract and has rising voids. There is market failure in the NDC area of All Saints, which is affected by crime, stigma and a poor urban form. The development of St John’s urban village could eventually see around 2,000 new residential units within and adjacent to the NDC area.
Inner City Walsall This zone comprises the tightly defined neighbourhoods and estates around the town centre that formed part of the old City Challenge area with a population of 47,245 (4.4% of the Black Country total). It contains an expanding BME community, mainly Pakistani, experiencing overcrowding and some students. These are located in areas of mainly poor terraced housing with pockets of private renting and high voids. Crime is high, reflecting its town centre position. House prices are the second highest in the Black Country at £86,052 (+114% since 1996) partly reflecting internal household growth. It remains, however, highly polarised from its suburban hinterland.
Municipal Wolverhampton This covers the mass interwar council estates to the north in Low Hill, the 70s Dovecote estate to the north west and early post-war estates in the south and east of the city. Right-to-Buy Sales and private build have taken the proportion of the stock that is social rented down to below 50% according to the 2001 Census. Overall the zone has a population of 38,470 (3.6% of Black Country total). The northern cluster of neighbourhoods nevertheless exhibits social, crime, economic and environmental problems in a low demand area of more than 7,500 dwellings.
The market in the Lower Fifth Avenue/Bushbury Triangle neighbourhoods is especially weak with problematic private renting, high voids and anti-social behaviour. A CURS study of this market noted the poor local environment due to the West Coast main railway line, the Goodyear factory and a number of other non-conforming uses.7 However, new build (70% for market sale and 30% for rental) is now on site in Bushbury Triangle and Goodyear has come under the ownership of St. Modwen - with potential for impact on adjoining markets. Overall the market across the zone will need significant restructuring over the decade.
The south east cluster around Parkfields/East Park is currently performing better but faces a similar declining trajectory. Prices have doubled between 1996 and 2003 but at an average of £64,868 are the lowest amongst the sub-markets in the conurbation. Generally the population is poor but stable, with only 9% annual mobility.
7 Brendan Nevin, CURS (2001), Changing Demand for Housing in Low Hill/Bushbury: A Discussion Paper.
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Municipal Walsall The zone extends northwards from Walsall Town to include the huge council-built estates of Beechdale, Leamore and Blakenall targeted in City Challenge, SRB and NDC area-based regeneration initiatives. These also exhibit monolithic design issues, social problems and high voids (pockets 10% +). Price growth is the weakest of the sub-markets and prices are above only its Wolverhampton counterpart. As with Walsall’s inner core, it is highly polarised from its suburban counterpart, with most of it within the worst 10% for IMD income, health, and employment and environmental indicators. Population loss has been consistent and is down 17% since 1981 to 33,512.
Northern Black Country core This large area accounts for 15.2% of the Black Country population. It straddles parts of three Black Country districts and includes the towns of Willenhall, Darlaston, Bilston, Wednesbury, and parts of Coseley, Tipton and Dudley and the post-war neighbourhoods of West Bromwich.
These remain parochial and largely freestanding towns defined by bands of industrial use and overall the urban form is highly fragmented. Mixed use is still an issue to the north and remediation costs following closures are recognised as a problem. It has large concentrations of inter-war council housing that now exhibit a range of social problems with the loss of economic function and falling population. Bilston for example, a town particularly hit by factory closures has issues of low prices, economic exclusion, poor health, high crime and poor access to services in an east-west arc across the town. The development of the nearby urban village with capacity for 1,300 homes is a priority. Bilston has a very similar profile to the council areas of Tipton which will be the focus for future clearance. The Black Country Development Corporation achieved major impact with replacement activity along the spine road and new housing that has attracted inflow to the core of the conurbation, but prices remain low, and growth in values since 1996 are the second lowest of the eight sub- markets.
Southern Black Country core This includes the core of Tipton, Rowley Regis, southern Oldbury, Cradley Heath, Netherton, Brierley Hill and Lye. The zone accounts for 18.3% of Black Country population.
The boundary between the southern and northern Black Country cores is not clear-cut and is partly topographical with the Rowley hills being the major divide of the Black Country.
The stock profile between the two zones is nearly identical but the southern area has a slightly lower proportion of social renting. The environment is generally better but still features badly in the IMD. The Black Country villages in the south have partly suburbanised with heavy industry long gone but they have a poor transport infrastructure. There are issues around declining mixed use areas in Lye. House prices in the south are higher and the gap has widened since 1996. Voids are lower with some localised problems.
The primary distinction between the two zones, however, is the apparent watershed in terms of localities where BME populations are resident and are expanding into. Three wards covering highly insular white council estates located in the northern core have recently elected BNP councillors8,
8 Castle & Priory in Dudley and Princes End and Great Bridge in Sandwell.
48 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 while in contrast areas to the south in Tipton and Dudley Towns and Lye have Pakistani and mixed BME communities. This may be a factor in the south’s population growth of 8.1% in 1991-2001.
The suburban fringe This major zone, containing 498,241 people (46.8% of the total) extends clockwise from Halesowen/Stourbridge in the south, to Kingswinford, Sedgley, Penn and Tettenhall in the west, and Wednesfield through to Aldridge/Brownhills in the north. It contains the most affluent, qualified social groups and is overwhelmingly white (except in Wolverhampton) in often detached higher priced post-war localities around scattered Victorian villages. Owner occupation is at 75%. Values averaged £125,012 in 2003 having more than doubled since 1996. Current Government policy and high land values are driving a gradual process of intensification in these areas. The population is stable since 1981 and residential mobility the lowest of the sub-markets.
To the south Bearwood is probably the only example in the Black Country of an inner suburban neighbourhood akin to Birmingham’s high-priced Victorian Harborne-Edgbaston-Moseley-Kings Heath areas. The suburban fringe is not homogenous: although it has high proportion of families and elderly households, especially areas such as Amblecote and Penn, there are significant numbers of young and single person households in Bearwood and Stourbridge. It also includes localities of poor but usually stable social housing obscured by favourable ward-level indicators.
South Telford South Telford is characterised by mainly former New Town estates containing approximately 8,000 properties built to the discredited Radburn-style design to house people displaced by slum clearance from the Black Country. (Only Chelmsley Wood in Solihull has a similar concentration of Radburn- style housing on this scale in the West Midlands). Many of these properties are now in private ownership, and ownership patterns are fragmented with similar levels of private-renting to the inner city Black Country. Prices are lower than the municipal zones of Wolverhampton and Walsall, their closest counterparts. Voids are low, but mobility is high and although moves tend to be highly localised due to isolation from the rest of urban Telford. The former New Town estates are highly insular in outlook and badly stigmatised.
Urban Telford The remaining residential areas of Telford, especially those north of the M54, have a housing profile close to the regional average. House prices are nearly double the level of south Telford but still lower than the Black Country’s suburban fringe despite a higher proportion of detached properties. Price difference and the attractive physical environment and amenities underline the continued attractiveness of the area to purchasers from the Black Country.
Defining an Intervention Area The analysis of socio-economic function in the previous section pointed to a highly disadvantaged but not homogenous central zone of neighbourhoods in the Black Country. This can in turn be considered in terms of three broad categories - which would provide the focus for an HMRA intervention area:
Inner city areas based on three major historic centres of the Black Country;
49 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Two municipal areas based on the original footprint of large socially rented areas located on the periphery; and
Freestanding Black Country towns with a loosely distinguished northern and southern component.
A final category constitutes the eighth Black Country sub-market, a single suburban fringe containing nearly half (46.8%) of the total population of the Black Country.
The polycentricity of the Black Country arising from its historically fragmented pattern precludes any handy ‘inner city’ moniker for a nevertheless highly disadvantaged core. This problematic core of the Black Country is highly complex and diverse, with several inner city and social periphery zones operating around a jumble of old towns and villages still defined by the historic patterns of economic land use. Several sub-markets exist within this core area.
Overall, concern must be focused more on the Black Country northern sub-markets. Both Wolverhampton and Walsall’s inner cities are facing difficulty - although in Wolverhampton the problems are more acute at neighbourhood level and are multi-tenure in scope. In Walsall there is a housing re-supply issue for the expanding but spatially constrained BME population facing unfitness and overcrowding. Both municipal zones face demand issues due to limited inflow to their stigmatised and peripheral environments. The Wolverhampton estates have been subject to restructuring but both areas will need comprehensive intervention over the next 10-15 years.
The focus in the weak northern Black Country core towns zone will need to be in the Bilston and Tipton area and other inter-war estates such as Priory in Dudley. Some of these areas are forming barriers to BME migration within the conurbation and suffer from social problems and poor environments. To the south, the Sandwell inner city is problematic but forms part of the Urban Living Pathfinder area. There are, however, smaller areas of weakness such as Brierley Hill that emerge from the finer-grained neighbourhood typologies.
The south Telford former-New Town estates (Woodside, Brookside and Sutton Hill) are also identified as requiring particular investment given the complex issues which they face.
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Figure 3.24: Black Country and Telford Sub-Markets
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Table 3.3: HMRA sub-markets: house prices Mean Price % Change Sub Market Sales 1996 Sales 2003 2003 96 - 03 Inner City Sandwell 546 799 £77,384 123.1 Inner City Walsall 487 799 £86,052 114.4 Inner City Wolverhampton 353 521 £73,624 132.5 Municipal Walsall 170 305 £65,054 92.3 Municipal Wolverhampton 218 348 £64,868 108.0 Northern Black Country Core 1,188 1,760 £79,216 96.8 Southern Black Country Core 2,014 2,781 £85,962 103.8 Suburban Fringe 6,608 7,895 £125,012 111.2 South Telford Estates 221 361 £62,929 135.2 Rest of Telford 1,877 2,546 £114,595 129.4 Source: ODPM/Land Registry
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Table 3.4: HMRA sub-markets: population change 1981-2001 % Total Sub- markets Population % Change % Change % Change Sub-Market Population 1981 Population 1991 Population 2001 2001 81/91 91/01 81/01
Inner City Sandwell 64,374 52,692 55,997 5.3 -18.1 6.3 -13.0 Inner City Walsall 47,316 45,772 47,245 4.4 -3.3 3.2 -0.2 Inner City Wolverhampton 38,678 33,073 34,465 3.2 -14.5 4.2 -10.9
Municipal Walsall 40,519 36,653 33,512 3.1 -9.5 -8.6 -17.3 Municipal Wolverhampton 44,087 38,416 38,470 3.6 -12.9 0.1 -12.7 Northern Black Country Core 179,295 160,672 162,054 15.2 -10.4 0.9 -9.6 Southern Black Country Core 193,058 180,034 194,596 18.3 -6.7 8.1 0.8 Suburban Fringe 491,915 489,511 498,241 46.8 -0.5 1.8 1.3 South Telford Estates 17,222 15,948 16,982 1.4 -7.4 6.5 -1.4 Rest of Telford 104,153 113,099 140,025 11.5 8.6 23.8 34.4 Source: Census of Population 1981, 1991, and 2001
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Table 3.5: HMRA sub-markets: housing type % % Semi- % % Sub-Market Population Dwellings Detached Detached Semi detached Terraced Terraced Flat Flat/Other Inner City Sandwell 55,997 23,329 1,561 6.7 6,328 27.1 9,854 42.2 5,586 23.9 Inner City Walsall 47,245 19,185 1,633 8.5 6119 31.9 6,952 36.2 4,481 23.4 Inner City Wolverhampton 34,465 15,505 1,192 7.7 3,449 22.2 5,240 33.8 5,624 36.3 Municipal Walsall 33,512 13,745 1,044 7.6 6,973 50.7 4,060 29.5 1,668 12.1 Municipal Wolverhampton 38,470 15,864 1,362 8.6 8,518 53.7 3,817 24.1 2,167 13.7 Northern Black Country Core 162,054 67,598 7,016 10.4 34,385 50.9 15,003 22.2 11,194 16.6 Southern Black Country Core 194,596 82,640 10,079 12.2 40,764 49.3 18,236 22.1 13,561 16.4 Suburban Fringe 498,241 209,581 51,615 24.6 100,808 48.1 31,109 14.8 26,049 12.4 South Telford Estates 16,982 7,100 576 8.1 1,554 21.9 3,841 54.1 1,129 15.9 Rest of Telford 140,025 57,654 19,116 33.2 22,345 38.8 10,692 18.5 5,501 9.5 Source: Census of Population 2001
Table 3.6: HMRA sub-markets: tenure 2001 (Source: Census of Population 2001) % Owner % Owner Social % Social Private Private Sub-Market Dwellings Occupied Occupied Rented Rented Rented Rented Inner City Sandwell 23,329 11,936 51.2 7,154 30.7 2,871 12.3 Inner City Walsall 19,185 9,925 51.7 5,319 27.7 2,526 13.2 Inner City Wolverhampton 15,505 6,163 39.7 5,017 32.4 3,232 20.8 Municipal Walsall 13,745 5,513 40.1 6,701 48.8 964 7.0 Municipal Wolverhampton 15,864 6,174 38.9 7,599 47.9 1,462 9.2 Northern Black Country Core 67,598 34,718 51.4 24,955 36.9 5,545 8.2 Southern Black Country Core 82,640 48,233 58.4 24,761 30.0 7,252 8.8 Suburban Fringe 209,581 157,738 75.3 34,689 16.6 12,889 6.1 South Telford Estates 7,100 3,774 53.0 2,137 30.0 917 12.9 Rest of Telford 57,654 39,647 68.5 11,923 20.6 4919 8.5
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Table 3.7: HMRA sub-markets: People moving address in previous 12 months, 2001 Sub-market Population Not Moved Moved % Moved Inner City Sandwell 55,997 50,360 5,637 10.1 Inner City Walsall 47,245 41,743 5,502 11.6 Inner City Wolverhampton 34,465 28,251 6,214 18.0 Metropolitan Walsall 33,512 30,514 2,998 8.9 Municipal Wolverhampton 38,470 35,025 3,445 9.0 Municipal Black Country Core 162,054 147,960 14,094 8.7 Southern Black Country Core 194,596 176,335 18,261 9.4
Suburban Fringe 498,241 460,008 38,233 7.7 South Telford Estates 16,982 14,622 2,360 13.9 Rest of Telford 140,025 121,940 18,085 12.9 Source: Census of Population 2001
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4.0 REFERENCE AREA This section identifies the reference area and area of influence of the proposed HMRA. 4.1. Introduction In developing an understanding of the economic and social functions of the Black Country Telford area it is important to look at the interactions between the five authorities and the areas around them, and at their connectivity with these areas.
One of the key features of housing markets is that interactions are not limited by local authority or other administrative boundaries and that analysis of markets needs to recognise and take into account interactions occurring across wider, sometimes sub-regional, areas. Large authorities such as Birmingham obviously tend to have wider and larger-scale connections than smaller authorities.
This section looks in detail at the wider reference area within which the Black Country and Telford sit. It avoids the use of the terms housing market area or travel to work area for the following reasons:
because it draws on a number of sources of data including both migration and travel to work information; because these terms carry with them the implication that it is feasible and sensible to identify contiguous and self-contained areas which do not overlap. Analysis of patterns of interactions suggests that the creation of self-contained areas requires making assumptions about threshold levels of interaction which are arbitrary and which more seriously can obscure some important interactions that do not fit into this pattern; and because the spatial formation of the study area does not readily lend itself to this approach. 4.1 Summary The analysis of migration and travel to work patterns in the Black Country and Telford identifies:
a complex pattern of interactions between the authorities in the study area as would be expected from the complex pattern of employment centres and settlements across the area, overlain at a larger scale by the presence of the regional centre of Birmingham immediately to the east;
a relatively high degree of self-containment for Wolverhampton, Walsall and Dudley, which primarily look outwards to their suburban and rural hinterlands rather than towards one another or towards Birmingham. There is, however, some degree of overlap in terms of travel to work between these districts;
a different picture for Sandwell compared to the other Black Country boroughs - which being closer to Birmingham forms an important employment destination and supply of in-migrants to offset some of the loss of residents to the other Black Country districts. It also draws in workers from Wolverhampton, Walsall and Dudley, and even to a lesser extent from the west side of Birmingham. It also has its own smaller scale suburban and rural catchment to the south, based presumably on access via the M5 motorway;
Links between the Black Country and Birmingham are significant, but fall off sharply to the west, suggesting that distance and the friction caused by congestion or simply the presence of
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urban settlements and alternative employment opportunities is a significant constraint on travel in from the west. Hence the links with Sandwell and eastern parts of Walsall are the strongest, but in proportionate terms areas such as Bromsgrove or Lichfield have much closer links with Birmingham than Wolverhampton.
Telford & Wrekin to the west has the strongest links with Wolverhampton, to which it is closest, and to a lesser extent with Dudley, at least in terms of travel to work. In migration terms, there are also links to Birmingham, even discounting for the latter’s large population size. This suggests that there are links between the Black Country and Telford which extend both ways, stemming in the past from the history of Telford as a new town rehousing from the conurbation (but still reflected in migration patterns), and more recently from its role as a location for new housing which at least in part serves commuter as well as local employment markets;
Overall the analysis suggests an area of influence for the Black Country which looks north, south and west from its boundaries rather than east, together with a link to Telford from the western part of the Black Country boroughs area. Figure 4.17 shows this area in detail. It is within this area that changes in the pattern of employment opportunities, new housing provision and other decisions affecting travel to work and population movement are most significant. 4.2 Migration This section looks at migration linkages between the HMRA local authorities and the wider area.
4.2.1 Net Migration
Previous work9 by CURS looked at data on migration trends and interactions for the Black Country and Telford drawing on 2001 Census data. Figure 4.1 shows net migration by district in 2002, together with the most significant net migration flows between districts in the Black Country/Telford and surrounding areas.
All the Black Country districts except Wolverhampton experience net inflows from Birmingham, but these are not the main outflows from Birmingham, which has stronger north east-south west links with Bromsgrove and Tamworth, and with Solihull immediately to the east. Therefore, whilst the Black Country is physically linked to Birmingham, net movement is consistently out from Birmingham.
This migration out-flow from Birmingham into the Black Country and to other areas in particular, represents the first stage in a cascade of movement outwards from the core to the periphery of the conurbation and beyond. This movement is generally sectoral, with moves from the south of Birmingham continuing outwards in this direction. This occurs because people tend to move in relatively short steps to areas which they are familiar with as a result of proximity, and to enable them to retain links with the area in which they previously lived, especially if their move is not associated with a change of employment.
9 Ed Ferrari and Philip Leather (2004) The Black Country and Telford Housing Market Research, CURS, University of Birmingham.
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Sandwell is part of the core of the conurbation and has primary migration links with Walsall and Dudley - although some net movement by-passes the Black Country into Bromsgrove and South Staffordshire.
Wolverhampton, Walsall and Dudley show a clearer pattern of sectoral outward movement:
Dudley receives population from Birmingham and Sandwell but loses population through migration to the districts adjoining it to the west and south including Bridgnorth which is separated from it by an extension of South Staffordshire;
For Walsall the main destinations are Lichfield, Cannock Chase, and South Staffordshire (probably those parts of the district adjoining its boundary); and
For Wolverhampton, the main net movements are to South Staffordshire, Bridgnorth, and to Telford & Wrekin beyond.
These longer distance moves to Telford are unusual and reflect the strength of Telford’s attraction based on its role as a significant employment centre and the location of a large programme of new housing construction. Overall, Telford & Wrekin’s strongest in-migration sources are from the West Midlands conurbation (including Birmingham as well as the Black Country boroughs) rather than other districts which physically surround it. However, Telford & Wrekin exports population to these surrounding areas.
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Figure 4.1: Net migration and significant net flows, 2002.
Stoke-on-Trent Wrex ham 620620 Newcastle-under-Lyme Net migration 2002 As proportion of population Brox tow e
505050 Over 1% 0 to 1% Erew ash
200200200 200200200 200200200 -1 to 0% Derby Under -1% East Staffordshire North Shropshire 404040 404040 Arrows indicate net flows which represent 1% or more of the origin's total outflows. Osw estry Stafford NET_PROP_OUT_02 South Derbyshire
140140140 180180180 180180180
150150150 7070 NW Leicestershire 180180180 606060 180180180
Telford and Wrekin 120120120 120120120 Cannock Chase 303030 Lichfield 6060
100100100 330 330 330 100100100 330 330 330 110110110 Shrewsbury and Atcham 100100100 330 330 330 110110110 120120
100100100 100100100 100100100 220220 370370370 Tamw orth 5050 5050 Hinckley and Bosworth South Staffs 310310 Walsall 560560 560560Wolverhampton 550550550 140140 550550550 140140 9090 Bridgnorth 120120 North Warwickshire 230230230 600600600 230230230 120120120 120120120 120120120 220220220 220220220 180180180 100100 3030 Sandw ell 1,2001,200 680680 Nuneaton and Bedw orth Dudley 440440 Birmingham South Shropshire 150150150 1,7401,7401,740
140 140 140
140 140 140 600600600 140 140 140 600600600
3030 180180180 210210210 Solihull
1,0601,0601,060 Cov entry 410410 100100 Rugby Wyre Forest 100100 170170170 Bromsgrov e
800800800 800800800 110110
110 110 110 110110
110 110 110 110110
110 110 110
260260260 260260260 Warw ick 404040 © Crown copyright. All rights reserved. LA0907L 404040 Redditch 808080 808080 808080 808080
170 170 170
170 170 170
170 170 170
(Telford & Wrekin BC) 2004. 303030
100 100 100
100 100 100 100100100 100 100 100 Data source: NHSCR (migration), ONS mid-year estimates (population).
4.2.2 Migration Linkages
To summarise the links between the five authorities and their surroundings, the CURS work used the statistical technique of cluster analysis to identify the areas with which each authority demonstrated the strongest migrational linkages. This analysis looked at both inflows and outflows rather than net migration, and set these flows against the overall population of origin and destination authorities, so that the results would not be dominated by moves to and from Birmingham. It also took account of geographic distance, to offset the tendency of flows between adjacent areas to be greater than flows between those further apart.
On the basis of this analysis, Table 4.1 below shows the most significant flows in absolute terms and in proportionate terms for each of the five study areas, and Figures 4.2 and 4.3 (to be provided) map the results for each authority, both in terms of a core suggested by strong absolute flows, and a periphery suggested by strong relative flows.
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Table 4.1: Indicative areas of reference based on migration Study district Associated districts Out flow In flow Net flow Aggregate (indicative of ‘average’ flow extent of HMA) % of Most significant proportional flows Persons population Telford and Wrekin North Shropshire 360 220 140 0.27 Shrewsbury & Atcham 410 350 60 0.30 Bridgnorth 470 570 -100 0.50 Wolverhampton Walsall 930 920 10 0.38 Dudley 750 630 120 0.25 South Staffordshire 1260 700 560 0.57 Walsall Wolverhampton 920 930 10 0.38 Sandwell 870 1090 -220 0.36 Birmingham 970 1570 -600 0.21 Cannock Chase 630 300 330 0.27 Lichfield 620 250 370 0.25 South Staffordshire 580 270 310 0.24 Dudley Sandwell 1660 2340 -680 0.68 Sandwell Walsall 1090 870 220 0.36 Dudley 2340 1660 680 0.68 Birmingham 2350 3550 -1200 0.47
Most significant absolute flows Persons Persons Telford and Wrekin Wolverhampton 210 330 -120 540 Birmingham 220 310 -90 530 Bridgnorth 470 570 -100 1040 North Shropshire 360 220 140 580 Shrewsbury & Atcham 410 350 60 760 Wolverhampton Walsall 930 920 10 1850 Dudley 750 630 120 1380 South Staffordshire 1260 700 560 1960 Walsall Wolverhampton 920 930 10 1850 Sandwell 870 1090 -220 1960 Birmingham 970 1570 -600 2540 Dudley Sandwell 1660 2340 -680 4000 Sandwell Dudley 2340 1660 680 4000 Birmingham 2350 3550 -1200 5900
These figures show that:
Telford & Wrekin has strong links with Shrewsbury, North Shropshire and Bridgnorth, but the largest absolute links are with Wolverhampton and Birmingham. This gives a fragmented overall pattern with migration skipping South Staffordshire and Bridgnorth. This is not unexpected, given the origin of Telford as a new town, and the good transport links via the M54 and M6;
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Wolverhampton has a more conventional pattern of linkage with Walsall and South Staffordshire (absolute flows) and Walsall and Dudley (proportionate flows). These districts almost surround Wolverhampton. The notable feature is the absence of linkage with Sandwell and Birmingham;
Walsall has a consistent picture in terms of both absolute and proportionate flows, with the strongest links to Wolverhampton, Sandwell and Birmingham. Links to surrounding districts outside the conurbation are present but less strong, probably because these authorities are smaller in size;
Dudley, for which the picture is more surprising, shows strong links with only one authority, Sandwell. Areas to the west of Dudley outside the conurbation do not feature. This may be because Dudley’s linkages with other districts within the Black Country (mainly in terms of inflows of population from them) are much stronger than the outflows to areas such as Wyre Forest, South Staffordshire, or rather than implying that there are no flows to these areas; and finally
Sandwell demonstrates close links with Birmingham, Walsall and Dudley.
4.2.3 Migration-Based Reference Area
Figures 4.2 to 4.7 shows the migration-based reference area derived by combining the areas which have close associations with the Black Country and Telford & Wrekin (shaded black) together with a secondary reference area (areas shaded grey).
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Figure 4.2: Extent of migration associations for Telford Figure 4.3: Extent of migration associations for Wolverhampton
Figure 4.4: Extent of migration associations for Walsall Figure 4.5: Extent of migration associations for Dudley
DudleyDudley
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Figure 4.6: Extent of migration associations for Figure 4.7: Combined migration association for Black Country and Telford Sandwell
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4.3 Travel to Work The previous CURS work was undertaken before 2001 Census origin-destination data became available. As part of the present study further analysis was undertaken of origin-destination data on travel to work to complement the picture produced on migration.
Travel to work patterns are as significant as migration patterns in indicating areas of influence. They identify areas which have a strong economic linkage with major employment centres. In part they represent the outcome of past patterns of migration, though of course not all those travelling into a major employment centre are past migrants. They may represent the potential catchment area within which it would be possible to influence patterns of location behaviour and attract in migrants into closer proximity to major employment centres. Although in the case of large centres such as Birmingham, it would not be feasible for all those employed in the city to live within its boundaries.
As a result, the analysis of travel to work patterns provides a complementary picture of the areas with which the Black Country and Telford have close economic and social linkages.
4.3.1 Context
Most people who travel to work travel a relatively short distance. To set this in context:
. Only 29% of those in employment in 2001 in England and Wales with a fixed workplace in the UK travelled more than 10km to work. . Nationally 24% of employed people lived and worked in the same ward in 2001. . 60% lived and worked in the same local authority area. . This leaves only 40% who travelled across a local authority boundary.
Analysis of longer distance travel must therefore focus on the minority of all those in employment with a fixed workplace who travel longer distances. These tend, not surprisingly, to be people who are in more highly paid occupations. They are more able to afford higher travel costs and more highly constrained than other workers in terms of the choice of employment locations open to them.
4.3.2 Employment centres
Travel to work is also influenced by the pattern of employment opportunities. In areas where there is one major employment concentration surrounded by a residential or rural hinterland, the pattern of travel is usually simple.
Not surprisingly, the Black Country forms a complex mosaic of employment opportunities (Figure 4.8), which is in turn set within a wider regional/sub-regional picture dominated by the central area of Birmingham. The dominance of central Birmingham is clear, but there are also significant concentrations in the centres of Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley and Telford, in a number of subsidiary centres in these areas, and in a band extending from West Bromwich through the core of the Black Country towards Wolverhampton.
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Figure 4.8: Main centres of employment in Black Country-Telford and environs
4.3.3 Net Commuting Flows
Table 4.2 shows details of employment and commuting at district level for the Black Country, Telford & Wrekin and Birmingham. These figures show that:
Telford, Wolverhampton and Sandwell are net importers of labour; Walsall is in balance; and Dudley is a substantial exporter, mainly to Sandwell.
Table 4.2: Residence, employment and commuting by district, 2001
% working % resident Ave Living and in area workforce distance Working in working in Commuting Commuting Net commuting commuting travelled to area area out in commuting in out work (km) Sandwell 120,276 63,156 50,406 57,120 6,714 47 44 7.30 Dudley 123,179 85,620 54,315 37,559 -16,756 30 39 8.44 Walsall 104,685 64,142 41,488 40,543 -905 39 39 8.37 Wolverhampton 104,433 60,865 34,061 43,568 9,507 42 36 8.46 Telford & Wrekin 79,840 59,211 15,169 20,629 5,460 26 20 10.84 South Staffordshire 30,977 17,152 35,275 13,825 -21,450 45 67 12.23 Birmingham 450,717 288,219 78,922 162,498 83,576 36 21 9.04
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4.3.4 Commuting Patterns
However these are net figures, hiding substantial inward and outward flows. Further analysis of inward and outward flows shows that:
Telford is relatively self-contained, with about 20% of resident workers travelling out and a quarter of workers commuting in; At the other extreme, 44% of Sandwell’s resident workforce commutes out and 47% of workers commute in; and Although Birmingham stands out in terms of total employment numbers, it is worth noting that the number of people working in the four Black Country Boroughs together is greater in total than the number working in Birmingham.
The table also shows South Staffordshire, where 67% of the resident workforce commutes out. Although Birmingham has by far the largest level of inward commuting, this only represents just over a third of the workforce, because of the large number of people who both live and work in the authority’s area.
4.3.5 Distance Travelled to Work
Table 4.3 also shows the average distance travelled to work by the resident workforce in each district. This is significantly higher for Telford & Wrekin, because of the rural nature of the hinterland and the low density of Telford itself, and for South Staffordshire, because of the high incidence of out- commuting.
4.3.6 Travel to work patterns
Table 4.3 below summarises levels of travel to work between selected districts in the Black Country Telford area. These show that:
As would be expected levels of internal travel are far greater than travel between districts. (Significant flows between districts are highlighted in light blue);
Flows into Birmingham dominate - with the main flows from Sandwell, Walsall and Dudley rather than Wolverhampton. (Note that the table does not show other districts such as Solihull or Lichfield which also provide large flows into Birmingham);
There are also relatively large two way flows between Dudley and Sandwell (but not between these districts and Walsall);
Wolverhampton’s link to South Staffordshire stands out; and
flows from Telford to the Black Country are generally small.
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Table 4.3: Travel to work matrix by selected districts, Black Country Telford and environs
Persons travelling from: Persons travelling to: Birmingham Dudley Sandwell Walsall Wolverhampton Telford S Staffs Birmingham 288198 13145 23317 14366 4427 1010 2316 Dudley 3948 85527 11074 1789 4933 590 2875 Sandwell 12103 17779 63144 7956 5491 472 2224 Walsall 4947 2530 6008 64117 8108 557 4768 Wolverhampton 1982 7960 3257 6854 60923 2050 11757 Telford 372 570 247 358 1824 59075 1080 South Staffs 312 1856 389 1160 3615 511 17065
Figures 4.9 to 4.13 show patterns of travel to work in Telford and each of the Black Country boroughs at ward level - expressed in terms of their relative significance to the originating areas rather than absolute numbers, which we would expect to be dominated by larger authorities.
Each map shows the percentage of workers travelling to work in the district in question, banded to distinguish:
. Areas where 30% or more of all persons working work in the district . Areas where 10%-30% work in the district . Areas where 5%-10% work in the district . Areas where 1-5% work in the district, and . Areas where less than 1% work in the district.
The figures show that:
Telford and Wrekin has a wide travel to work area - with 5% or more of employed people in Shrewsbury and Atcham, North Shropshire, and Bridgnorth, as well as parts of Oswestry, South Shropshire, and Staffordshire commuting into the Borough for work. Furthermore, the Borough’s travel to work area extends into Wolverhampton where up to 1% of employed people work in Telford and Wrekin;
The Black Country boroughs display relatively tight travel to work areas, with only limited spill over from one to another and a tendency to expand outwards sectorally into surrounding areas where this is possible. South Staffordshire forms one of the most important sources of commuters into the Black Country:
Dudley has the strongest travel to work linkages to the south and west - with particularly strong links with South Staffordshire - with 30% or more people in the southern extension of South Staffordshire working in Dudley;
Walsall has the strongest travel to work linkages to the north and north west into South Staffordshire, Cannock Chase and Lichfield;
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Wolverhampton has the strongest travel to work linkages to the north west - particularly with South Staffordshire; and
Sandwell attracts significant numbers of workers from a more restricted area than the other Black Country boroughs, because it lacks the surrounding suburban or rural commuter areas which they have available. The Borough mainly attracts workers from Walsall and Dudley, in particular - with more limited travel into the Borough from Wolverhampton and Birmingham to the east.
Figure 4.14 shows the travel to work area for Birmingham as a comparison. Not surprisingly Birmingham’s travel to work area is much wider - with a clear north east-south west bias reflecting the similar bias in migration. Travel to Birmingham is more limited from the south east, where there are significant employment centres in Coventry, Warwick and Stratford, and especially to the north west, where the Black Country acts as a block to the growth of travel. This is likely to arise not just because of the existence of alternative employment opportunities but also because of the friction caused by urban areas in terms of travel times.
Figure 4.15 shows the main areas of influence based on travel to work patterns summarised for each of the five authorities, together with the pattern for Birmingham10. The map confirms the relative lack of overlap between the catchments of Birmingham on the one hand and the Black Country boroughs on the other, and the north east-south west bias of the Birmingham are of influence. Telford’s area of influence does not overlap with Birmingham, Sandwell or Walsall, but there are substantial overlaps with Wolverhampton and Dudley, confirming the links between Telford and Wrekin and the western side of the Black Country.
10 The threshold used is that of 5% travel to each centre – in other words within the lines on the map 5% or more of those travelling to work go to the relevant employment centre. This represents a minimum level of travel of about one eighth of the average proportion of non-local travel.
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Figure 4.9: Area of influence: Telford & Wrekin
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Figure 4.10 Area of influence: Dudley
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Figure 4.11 Area of influence: Sandwell
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Figure 4.12 Area of influence: Walsall
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Figure 4.13 Area of influence: Wolverhampton
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Figure 4.14 Area of influence: Birmingham
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Figure 4.15: Summary of travel to work areas, Black Country, Telford and Birmingham
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5.0 DRIVERS OF CHANGE
5.1 Introduction
This section provides a provisional assessment of the drivers of housing market change for the proposed HMRA in terms of key regional, sub-regional and localised/neighbourhood trends.
The analysis of drivers is important to understanding why the area and its wider sub-region has not performed well and whether this trajectory will continue.
A more in-depth assessment of drivers will be undertaken as part of the work during Phase Two to develop the HMRA prospectus.
5.2 Summary
The following key drivers of housing market change in the area have been identified:
5.2.1 Economic Trends
Key economic trends identified are:
The industrialisation of the Black Country which has led to the development of a dispersed settlement pattern in the Black Country involving:
housing located close to employment; a preponderance of high-density, poor quality private rented housing; development of low standard local authority housing concentrated in mass interwar housing estates (later transferred into low value owner-occupied stock); and poor quality environments offering limited amenities and features to retain aspirational group;
The subsequent de-industrialisation and economic restructuring of the Black Country economy with a tendency for replacement by lower skill level employment opportunities leading to:
decline of inner housing areas and estates in the Black Country with loss of economic function; emergence of vacancy rates in the social rented sector and private sector with out-migration by younger households combined with population ageing; emergence of poor quality, often stigmatised housing areas; a high private new build rate due to increasingly available land supply - for example on former industrial sites - particularly in the Black Country urban core; a prevalence of low income households across the traditional industrial housing areas of the Black Country; and a shift in the pattern of employment opportunities towards Dudley combined with a projected ongoing decline in Sandwell and Wolverhampton.
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Forecast continuing major decline in manufacturing - in terms of output and employment - forecast for the Black Country - with the conurbation locked into a diverging trajectory from the rest of the region and also Birmingham due to its dependence on low-value and declining manufacturing sectors. At the same time, recent analysis of employment trends for the Black Country Study identifies that service sector employment in the Black Country is forecast to continue to grow and expected to replace most manufacturing job losses.
Overall, the historical pattern of manufacturing industry in the Black Country has led to a pattern of high levels of social rented provision and lower value private housing, with considerable inter- mixture of dwellings and manufacturing industry, leading to poor and unattractive environments. The advent of new forms of economic activity such as distribution have not attracted new aspirational housing development, and the scale of dereliction and poor environments continue to work against this.
The Black Country remains polycentric with an array of small local centres offering very limited amenities as well as an archaic road system. The fragmented pattern of residential and industrial land uses generates a high degree of movement and has led to significant traffic congestion. Extensive mixed uses also result in poor residential environments. The Spatial Framework being developed for the Black Country seeks to deliver a transformation in land use, the quality of the urban environment required to support investment in growth sectors and higher quality housing to attract more highly skilled workers.
The sub-region has experienced a decentralisation of economic activities - including to the New Towns - with subsequent economic and employment growth in Telford.
Telford’s economy has performed well in regional terms and is identified in the Regional Spatial Strategy as a sub-regional focus for economic development. In particular, RPG identifies the Borough as a strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments. The Borough’s own economic strategy - focused on seven target economic clusters - envisages expansion of value-added manufacturing and knowledge-based services, and an expanded workforce of 110,000 individuals by 2020.
However, Telford’s manufacturing base is vulnerable towards shifting manufacturing production (automotive and electronics) overseas, and the Borough has suffered a major slow down in inward investment to the Borough from a very high rate of attraction of 1,500 companies over 20 years. A key challenge in terms of housing market renewal is to harness the growth potential of Telford for the benefit of the sub-region.
5.2.2 Demographic Trends
Key demographic trends identified are:
Demographic growth in the 1950s and 60s, combined with aspirations towards independent living and slum clearance - leading to increased demand for local authority housing and planned decentralisation from the Black Country to peripheral Greenfield sites and New Towns (including Telford).
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Selective out-migration from the Black Country and the unattractiveness of the residential ‘offer’ (both the tenure and type of stock and the package of services and environments associated with the stock) is such that the area has lost, steadily and over a long period of time, a high proportion of those who have choice over their location. There has been significant population movement from the historic core of the Black Country to its suburban fringe and beyond this to rural districts as part of an overall process of long-term decentralisation of population from the Birmingham and Black Country conurbation. The Black Country has lost 4,000 population a year through out- migration over the last 15 years through:
o Decentralisation within the Black Country conurbation; and
o Decentralisation away from the conurbation (a ‘hollowing out’ of metropolitan areas) into rural districts - particularly of households in the middle of the family cycle and more affluent households. This has contributed to population gains in Telford - in addition to working class and unemployed households moving out to the Borough’s New Town estates.
RPG targets for housing development seek to reverse the trend of decentralisation of population away from the Black Country.
Demographic ageing - with a growth of population in the over-65 age group - as younger people leave the area and do not return after higher education because of the lack of employment opportunities and the poor environment. The Black Country has lost 4,000 population a year through out-migration over the last 15 years.
A growing younger population particularly amongst black and minority ethnic communities in the Black Country, and the region’s older industrial areas.
Growth and/or dispersal of BME population - BME households were originally attracted to the Black Country by opportunities in manufacturing industry and the lower paid service sectors, but these communities have grown through natural change and further in-migration. The growth of BME populations and the advent of international migration are transforming the inner city markets of the Black Country. These groups are providing much of the household growth within the Black Country and their ability to migrate from their core areas is a major localised driver of change within the conurbation. In some communities, the need to provide new housing for expanding groups in housing need in tightly defined older terraced areas is a major issue.
Growth in numbers of asylum seekers and refugees in the West Midlands - with the Black Country (Birmingham, Stoke and Coventry representing the main concentrations). This includes asylum seekers placed by NASS in the conurbation as well as significant numbers moving in from other UK dispersal areas. A recent report by CURS identifies an estimated 3,500 asylum seekers in the Black Country - with the most common group represented amongst asylum seekers to the region being single males aged under 35. Evidence suggests that asylum seekers tend to remain in the areas to which they were dispersed and prefer council housing in areas with more diverse populations and support services. This can create pressure on social housing with refugees tending to prefer areas diverse inner city areas where the predominant tenure is private terraced housing.
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5.2.3 Social Trends
Key social trends identified are:
Changing family and household structures - encapsulated in reducing average household sizes, and resulting in a more rapid increase in household numbers (higher than the rate of demographic growth) and trend towards smaller households;
Changing aspirations - rising aspirations, together with rising real incomes to enable aspirations to be met, are one of the most powerful factors influencing housing market change across the UK. Areas which have a housing stock more closely related to past rather than present or future economic trends are likely to suffer if they cannot meet modern expectations in terms of the quality of not just the housing stock but also of environments, public services such as schools and hospitals, and other services such as shopping and leisure facilities.
Sound polarisation - as a result of these trends, employees and families with spending power also migrate out from less attractive areas. Higher income areas attract employment-generating activity associated with shopping, leisure and other activities, and this in turn gives these areas further momentum which less attractive areas lose out on. Households living in less attractive areas which experience an improvement in their conditions are in these circumstances more likely to relocate outside them in order to find housing that suits their aspirations.
5.2.4 Governance and Policy Drivers
A range of policies can also be argued to have had an adverse impact on some housing markets:
Fragmentation and change in the historical development of the Black Country local government structure - leading to fragmentation of the built environment and housing provision - including low standards of housing provision;
Public sector-led decentralisation of local authority housing provision - driven by housing need - in the 1950s and 60s - leading to peripheral greenfield development, brownfield development and New Town developments.
‘Right to Buy’ sales combined with clearance which has thinned out concentrations of social rented housing provision - leading to total tenure transformation of some areas (e.g. Bristnall in Sandwell) - and raising issues regarding the quality of the owner occupied stock and low demand with demographic ageing.
Deregulation of private rented sector rents and the reduction of security of tenure in 1988 enables private rented provision to expand, although in some areas the scale of expansion, and the presence of poor quality landlords, has had adverse impacts on markets.
Weak regional and more local planning frameworks and ‘predict and provide’ planning techniques leading to increased greenfield housing development and ‘leapfrogging’ over Green Belt boundaries;
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Improvement of transport links perpetuating the decentralisation of higher income groups - facilitating higher levels of inward commuting rather than residency within the Black Country urban area.
A noted failure to link housing regeneration with other programmes relating to services and the environment - undermining the effectiveness of some past investment (e.g. in the social rented sector)
5.2.5 Micro-level Drivers
A number of micro-level drivers of change at the local or neighbourhood level can be identified:
Poor urban and housing design - impacting on the popularity and sustainability of many housing developments (e.g. tower blocks, deck-access estates, Radburn-style estates);
Area stigma: areas with high concentrations of deprivation and problems with crime and anti- social behaviour also suffer from stigma. Despite considerable community cohesion in some neighbourhoods, this emerges as an important local driver. (e.g. particularly on the 1930s estates such as ‘The Priory’ in Dudley).
Environmental issues and crime.
Market insularity - for example amongst Council tenants - particularly on some estates (e.g. 'The Priory' in Dudley, Tibbington in Tipton and the south Telford estates) leading to stable demand and areas with significant susceptibility to demographic decline.
Lifecycle effects amongst tenants - seeking to move out to larger accommodation;
Social pressures leading to more frequent movers amongst Council tenants.
A combined effect of low levels of economic activity, poor housing and local environments, unstable communities and poorly performing public services leading to a spiral of decline. There is growing evidence that problems affecting housing markets combine to produce a downwards spiral of decline which is very hard to halt. The growth of private renting has already been highlighted as a factor which can accelerate decline. Some local authorities experiencing a lack of demand for their housing have also been obliged to seek new client groups and this has also led to further instability and decline. A finding of this study is that drivers commonly thought to affect single neighbourhoods such as stigma, crime and the operation of housing lettings system appear to be affecting individual Black Country towns.
5.2.6 Key Outcomes
Key outcomes identified as a result of the drivers identified are:
A declining core of the Black Country: This analysis shows a huge central zone with localities in the most deprived 10% or 20% nationally, around 566,000 people. The spatial extent and
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fragmented nature of this central zone is significant. Here the historic pattern of low income housing and economic decline has led to a disproportionate concentration of certain types of households: young, single person and lone parent households. Demographically, there is a skew to people with health problems, pockets of ageing residents in poverty and for the most part, BME groups. Only in Wolverhampton is there a major concentration of students. This concentration of disadvantage and unstable communities therefore reflects the importance of the urban form as a driver (see section 4.3.1) which in turn defines its social function.
Distinct sub-markets with specific characteristics and different trajectories. There is a particularly complicated northern core area of the Black Country with issues around older poor condition terraced housing and declining interwar local authority-built estates with social problems and a fragmented urban form around traditional industrial activity. This northern core straddles parts of Wolverhampton, Walsall and Dudley and requires intervention involving joint planning and delivery by the Black Country authorities.
South Telford New Town estates (Woodside, Brookside and Sutton Hill) which are identified as displaying clear signs of market failure - including low demand, heavy stigma, abandonment, poor facilities and problems of unemployment and social deprivation. Key issues for these estates are the quality of the housing stock and estate infrastructure - described as being “of questionable construction standard” - and the fragmentation of property ownership - with marginal owner- occupation and private renting predominating. The problems inherent to these estates are such that a clearance programme on the New Town estates has started for the first time - with approximately 240 units being cleared in South Woodside. The longer-term future of these estates without intervention is problematic.
5.2.7 Future Trajectory
Chelmer population forecasts undertaken for the Black Country (Mott McDonald, 2004) (see Annex A) suggest a reduction in population of 84,500 persons over the period 2001-2031, accompanied by a net loss of 2,400 households.
Without fundamental change the Black Country - especially its core areas - will continue to fail to attract in-migrants with choice - except where there are special factors, such as the presence of BME communities. The nature of the housing stock has exercised a strong influence on the social and economic composition of the population. Unless the nature of the stock can be changed to provide a more attractive offer, measures to attract those with choice are unlikely to succeed. Demand for social rented housing may ebb and flow with changes in the price of housing relative to incomes, but in the long run it is declining inexorably. The popularity of some dwelling types may also vary with house prices, but again in the long run only dwellings which can fit with modern lifestyles and aspirations will prove attractive to those with choice.
Put more simply, the present nature of the housing stock and the environments within which it is located will be a serious constraint on measures to attract more affluent and more highly skilled households or others who have the capacity to move to other areas which are perceived as more attractive. Even setting aside questions of preferences and the attractiveness of housing and the environment, buying a house in many parts of the Black Country does not make investment sense for
81 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 people with choice because of the low rate of capital appreciation that can be expected. Unless measures are taken to create a more attractive housing stock, measures to create more jobs or high quality jobs will be undermined by the housing market, or will lead to a greater demand for commuting from outside the area. A key objective must be to encourage appreciation of housing values through diversification of the stock, whilst maintaining access to purchase for first time buyers and low income groups.
The impact of this would compound the challenge of creating a new economy for the Black Country based on knowledge industries and other high value added sectors.
Within the regeneration debate there is a tendency to assume that economic change will determine the direction of housing market change. But more affluent households have the capacity to afford and cope with longer commuting journeys so that connections between place of work and place of residence are increasingly weak. Attracting jobs does not necessarily mean attracting residents. Two- or multi-earner households are also increasingly common and this further complicates the link between home and work and puts a premium on accessible locations, locations which are likely to remain attractive over various stages in the lifecycle, or those representing minimal risk in investment terms. Population loss from areas such as Pathfinders is thus associated with active housing choices and the willingness to contemplate longer journeys to work rather than the loss of employment or the nature of employment.
Success in securing the development and sale of new build market housing in neighbourhoods previously considered unviable - such as on the Cape Hill brewery site in Smethwick - indicate potential for major housing market change in some areas
5.3 Regional Trends
5.3.1 Regional Economic Trends
Sustainable communities depend on a number of factors, including quality employment opportunities generating the jobs and higher incomes needed to support both home ownership and investment in the housing stock, including general repair and maintenance. Strong economies also breed confidence, helping to encourage both in-movers and resident retention, and supporting the range of services that are vital for balanced and sustainable communities.
The success of housing market interventions in the Black Country Telford area is closely linked to the economic and labour market characteristics and trends of the region and how those trends impact on the Black Country Telford sub-region.
Current work by ECOTEC reviewing the links between different economic drivers and the housing market (for the Regional Housing Board) highlights a growing ‘fracture’ between a relatively buoyant southern and eastern area in the region, increasingly part of a wider South East of England economy, and the northern and western areas of the region where growth is less pronounced and where there has been population decline and a continued loss of manufacturing employment.
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The location of the Black Country Telford sub-region firmly within the parts of the region experiencing lower rates of economic growth raises key issues for a housing market renewal area. Housing investments would need to go hand in hand with economic interventions, particularly those geared to higher value added economic activity, as well as environmental, transportation and other inter-related policy areas. In this respect current vehicles for policy intervention including the two Regeneration Zones and the High Technology Corridor have a crucial role to play.
Overall Trends The West Midlands economy underwent a major relative decline in GDP compared to the UK average in the late 1970s and early 1980s - although it has since held its own but is not gaining11. Although, as regards GVA per head, the disparity between the region and the UK average has widened (1989 to 2001) (see Table 5.1). GVA is a measure of the region’s potential to re-invest in regional growth.
Table 5.1: GVA £ per head GVA (£ per head) 2001 Change from 1998 UK 14,418 12.1% West Midlands 13,031 10.4% Source: Office for National Statistics, Gross value added (GVA) and Gross Disposable Household Income by NUTS 1, 2 and 3 areas at current basic prices, 2002
As regards employment, figures show that the region experienced a 1.4% increase in employment between 1998 and 2002 compared to a GB average of 5%.
Advantage West Midlands reports that in the absence of the Regional Economic Strategy the West Midlands will remain ‘static’ and specifically that the Region will perform at or close to the UK average in Gross Value Added (GVA) and employment terms, resulting in relatively little net employment; and unemployment will rise.
The West Midlands Regional Economic Strategy states that changes in the region’s demography over the next few years will have huge implications for the region’s employment base. It is projected that by 2010 more than 50% of the West Midlands workforce will be over the age of 5012.
Manufacturing Trends A key issue for the region is the level of employment in manufacturing - with manufacturing still the largest contributor to regional GVA and employing over 20% of the region’s workforce compared to just over 15% nationally. Regional productivity rates in the manufacturing sector are low by UK standards and even further behind many European countries. The State of the Region report (2004) highlights that the region ranked 7th out of the nine English regions for expenditure on R&D in 2001.
Manufacturing employment continues to decline, especially in value-added sectors and sectors facing low-cost overseas competition or over-capacity in international markets. A decrease of 103,000 jobs in manufacturing is predicted across the region a between 1999 and 2010. This will have a particular
11 West Midlands Regional Observatory (2004) ‘State of the Region Report’ 12 AWM (2004) Regional Economic Strategy: 17
83 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 impact on the region’s manufacturing centres including the Black Country Telford area, where manufacturing remains the largest employment sector - accounting for over a quarter of all jobs.
Research by GHK in May 200413 concluded that manufacturing employment in the Black Country had declined from 40% of all employment to 24% in the last twenty years. The Black Country’s manufacturing industry is expected to continue to evolve into a shrinking sector with projected reductions in both output and employment (see Table 5.2).
Table 5.2: Change in Employment, Black Country, 1991-2002 Actual Expected Differential Manufacturing -35 -27 -8 Other Production -5 -3 -2 Services +47 +51 -4 TOTAL +7 +21 -14 Source: Long-Term Economic Strategy for the Black Country, (May 2004), GHK: BC Research Database
Figure 5.1 also demonstrates a gradual decline in manufacturing in Telford and Wrekin. Telford and Wrekin’s manufacturing sector is projected to adjust with falls in employment but greater levels of productivity.
Figure 5.1: Manufacturing Jobs, 1984-2003
% of Total 90 Black Country 80 Birmingham Stoke on Trent Telford & Wrekin 70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 1984 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Service Sector Growth The region’s service sector is growing - to replace manufacturing employment - but at a slow rate - and with a significant dependence on public sector growth (health and education in particular), which has a relatively lower share of GVA (State of the Region Report, 2004). A net increase of 34,000 jobs
13 GHK (2004) ‘Long-Term Economic Strategy for the Black Country’
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- in particular in business and other services, distribution and transport, and other non-market services - is forecast by 2010.
A key issue for the area will be its capacity to attract service sector growth with an overall shift in the locus of economic activity within the West Midlands from the conurbation towards the south east of the region.
Employment trends for key growth sectors between 1998 and 2003 (Figures 5.2 and 5.3) show that:
Telford and Wrekin, and Wolverhampton have experienced a substantial percentage increase in consumer services employment - including the renaissance of Wolverhampton City Centre - whilst the rest of the Black Country authorities have experienced a low to negative change in consumer services employment;
Telford and Wrekin, Wolverhampton, Dudley - and in particular Walsall - have experienced growth in knowledge-based services employment (including the development of Brierley Hill), whilst Sandwell has experienced a substantial decrease.
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Figure 5.2 % Change in Consumer Services Employment, Figure 5.3 % Change in Knowledge Based Employment, 1998-2003 1998-2003
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Black Country Performance In terms of overall economic performance, the Black Country has experienced over-representation in weak UK sectors, at an estimated cost of 21,000 jobs, and slower employment growth compared to the rest of the UK. Research by GHK in May 200414 summarised past trends in the Black Country as showing a decline in employment of 11,000 jobs (2.6%) in the last 20 years. This downward trend is coupled with a decline in relative earnings and overall performance comparable to Birmingham and North Staffordshire. Actual performance in manufacturing has been far lower than anticipated and despite an increase in employment within the services sector this has been lower than anticipated.
The present performance of the Black Country economy (GHK, 2004) can be summarised as:
The Gross Value Added (contribution of GDP) of the economy is £14,000m (1.6% of UK); Gross Value Added per job is 88% of the UK average; GDP per head stands at £12,30015 Employment rate (employed as % of working population ) of 76.3% compared with UK rate of 78.1%; Manufacturing is still the largest sector by value (26%) and employment (24%). Distribution is the second largest sector; Occupational structure shows significant under-representation of higher income grades; and Average earnings are 87% of the UK average.
However, it should be noted - as shown in Figure 5.4 that Dudley has experienced a higher than average increase in employment since 1984 compared to the other Black Country Boroughs and Birmingham.
In terms of unemployment trends over the past 20 years Figure 5.5 outlines claimant counts for the Black Country, West Midlands and UK from 1984 - 2004. Both the Black Country and West Midlands at large show a similar trend to the rest of the UK.
Key issues for the Black Country with regard to growth sector employment have been:
The type of opportunities created, which in the case of the Black Country have tended to be lower skill level opportunities which have not attracted better paid, more highly qualified, and therefore more affluent workers to live in the area. This is reflected in the Black Country’s low income levels;
The proximity of the regional centre of Birmingham, which not only began with many advantages but has also undergone successful and continuing regeneration and expansion, not least through the presence of a strong higher education sector; and
14 GHK (2004) ‘Long-Term Economic Strategy for the Black Country’ 15 Black Country Observatory Research Database (2004) State of the Sub-region 2004
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The development of better motorways and other access roads, which, whilst assisting in the attraction of new employment, have also facilitated higher levels of inward commuting from those living outside the Black Country in more attractive environments.
Figure 5.4 Employee Jobs 1984-2003
Index 1984=100 190
Dudley
170 Sandwell Walsall Wolverhampton
150 Black Country Birmingham Stoke on Trent
130 Telford and Wrekin
110
90
70 84 87 89 91 93 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Source: ONS, NOMIS, Jan 2005
Figure 5.5 Claimant Count Unemployment, Black Country 1984-2004
Index 1984=100 1.050 Dudley Sandw ell 0.950 Walsall 0.850 Wolverhampton
0.750 W Mids R UK 0.650
0.550
0.450
0.350
0.250 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 Year
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Black Country Prospects A model has been developed for forecasting economic growth in the Black Country16 which is consistent with UK macro and industrial forecasts and the West Midlands regional forecasts. Base forecasts which consider the most likely path for economies given current trends and a policy neutral environment - identify that the Black Country economy will lose 20,000 jobs over 30 years to 2030. This job loss is expected to be uneven between the Black Country authorities, with Dudley expected to experience a continued rise in employment but at a slower rate, Walsall expected to experience broadly stable employment, and Sandwell and Wolverhampton expected to experience job losses amounting to 10%.
A sectoral analysis of these base projections (Table 5.3) identifies a projected continued rapid decline in manufacturing employment - although at a slightly slower rate than Birmingham. Most jobs lost from manufacturing are expected to be replaced from service sector employment.
Table 5.3: Employment Prospects in the Black Country (‘000s) Current 2003 Baseline 2030 Employment Manufacturing 112 47 Logistics & Distribution 55 58 Retail 55 54 Financial and Business Services (office) 72 106 Public Administration (office) 23 26 Personal Services 46 48 Total (ex health, education, 363 337 construction, transport) (-7%) Source: Regional Forecasts and Oxford Economic Forecasting, June 2004 (accessed via GHK (2004) Long- Term Economic and Employment Strategy for the Black Country: 5)
Despite an overall projected loss of jobs, the Black Country is projected through the model to achieve a higher residence-based employment rate, on the basis of a projected higher rate of population decline amongst the working age population compared to the rate of employment decline. However, the occupational structure is projected to see a shift away from higher level occupations (managers and professionals) with the relative average wage gap between the Black Country and the UK average increasing (from 81% of the UK average in 2003 to 76% in 2030).
Telford Performance Table 5.4 shows that Telford has performed well in regional terms and compared to the Black Country in employment terms. The Borough has also performed well in terms of median income levels and business starts, although the Borough has performed less well in other areas (e.g. skills levels). Furthermore, the Borough does not appear to have the economic base to support a growing population and rural hinterland, and is very exposed to reductions in foreign investment.
16 Regional Forecasts and Oxford Economic Forecasting, (June 2004) 'The Black Country Model and Economies for Economic Development'
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A recent SWOT analysis carried out by SQW for the Borough of Telford and Wrekin in 2004 identified the following levels of performance17:
28% manufacturing (National average 14%, regional average 20%); £2.2b GVA; GDP per head of £14,843; 66.7% of the Borough’s population in 2001 aged 15-64; Existing polymer engineering and ICT sector base; Low unemployment; A lack of affordable broadband connection in some industrial areas and a lack of Regional Selection Assistance Grants compared to Wales and the Black Country; and Existing competition from new regional employment sites, for example, the Wobaston Road 90 hectare employment park north of Wolverhampton 35% of people of working age have achieved NVQ Level 3 or above, compared to 42% nationally
Telford Prospects A recent SWOT analysis undertaken for Telford & Wrekin (SQW, 200418) identifies economic projections19 on the basis of continuing trends which indicate annual growth rates of 1.2% in employment (14,000 net jobs) and 3.4% in output between 2002 and 2015. However, the analysis also identifies the vulnerability of the Borough’s economy - to central government policy change (with nearly half of the net jobs created coming from ‘computing services’ believed to be largely driven by the expansion of EDS driven by changes to the Inland Revenue’s business) and the trend towards shifting manufacturing production (automotive and electronics) overseas.
The study also identifies a major slow down in inward investment to the Borough from a very high rate of attraction of 1,500 companies over 20 years. Whilst the Borough has excess supply of employment land, offers a good quality environment, low wages and good internal access, it is identified as struggling to retain competitive advantage for inward investment. This is linked to low unemployment, limited access to London and the national motorway network (M6 congestion), a lack of affordable broadband connection in some industrial areas and a lack of Regional Selective Assistance Grants compared to Wales and the Black Country. Competition from new regional employment sites elsewhere - particularly the Wobaston Road 90 hectare employment park north of Wolverhampton is also identified.
A key issue for the south Telford estates is access to employment opportunities created, with the area relatively physically isolated from a concentration of employment growth areas to the north of Telford and relatively low skills levels amongst the local population.
This analysis therefore, in summary, identifies that:
17 SQW (2004) SWOT Analysis for Telford and Wrekin Economic Development Strategy 18 SQW (2004) ‘Telford & Wrekin Economic Development Strategy: SWOT Analysis’ 19 Cambridge Econometrics using the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM)
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In both the Black Country and Telford and Wrekin, public administration and distribution sectors are expected to expand with increases in both employment and output.
Construction in both areas is stated as an adjusting employment sector with projected falls in employment but increasing output due to improvement in productivity levels.
In the Black Country, manufacturing is expected to evolve into a shrinking sector with projected reductions in both output and employment, whilst manufacturing in Telford is projected to adjust with falls in employment but greater levels of productivity.
In terms of detailed analyses the Black Country has been subject to more detailed scrutiny than Telford. The latter requires more extensive review. In some respects Telford has performed well in regional terms and well in comparison to the Black Country (e.g. business starts, median income levels) but in others the overall performance is poor (e.g. skills levels). Telford does not appear to have the economic base to support a growing population and rural hinterland. It is very exposed to reductions in foreign investment.
BME Economies The research base for BME economies is underdeveloped. Evidence tends to be anecdotal. ECOTEC is currently reporting on the links between BME communities and housing on behalf of the Regional Housing Board but the analysis is regional. More work would be required within the Black Country Telford sub-region but the general pattern of enclosed economies, based on family ties and informal labour markets, resulting in more limited opportunities and lower incomes is probably applicable.
5.3.2 Regional Demographic Trends
Decentralisation of population and economic activity away from the metropolitan centres of the region is of primary significance as a driver of market change over the last few decades (see Table 5.4). The decentralisation that has taken place within the conurbation away from the old industrial centres is discussed in Chapter 4.0.
As well as decentralisation within the conurbation, there is an even greater zone of population growth circling the conurbation itself with significant population gains outwards from the Black Country in South Staffs and Telford and also north, east and south of Birmingham in areas of very high house prices (Figure 5.6). Overall the pattern of decentralisation is striking, with the influence of the motorway network an apparent factor.
The highest overall rates of population increase have been in areas adjacent to the conurbation, rather than in more rural areas, reflecting the continuing economic pull of traditional employment centres, and the tendency of migrants to move short distances in order to sustain social and other networks, but the cumulative impact of this steady cascading outwards has been substantial.
Thus during the period 1961 to 1971 all Black Country districts except Sandwell experienced population growth. Post 1971 all districts except Dudley have experienced population decline to the
91 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 extent that the population of the Black Country is now less than that in 196120. The population of Telford has more than doubled in this period. Table 5.4 presents these population figures.
Table 5.4: Black Country and Telford Population Figures 1961-2001 000s 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Dudley 254 295 301 308 305 Sandwell 338 332 310 293 283 Walsall 246 274 267 261 253 Wolverhampton 261 272 258 248 237 Black Country Total 1,099 1,173 1,136 1,110 1,078 Telford & Wrekin 75 97 126 142 158 HMRA Total 1,174 1,270 1,262 1,252 1,236 Source: Mott MacDonald, ONS and Telford & Wrekin Borough Council
Taken together, this evidence suggests that the centre of gravity within the region is moving southwards and eastwards, reflecting the changing position of Birmingham and perhaps the economic pull of the South East region. The position of Staffordshire as an equivalent cold spot is also significant. With the exception of the planned New Town and post New Town development in Telford the sprawl of the Black Country has been restricted to the towns and smaller settlements of South Staffordshire district. The reasons for this include:
Green Belt policies restricting new development to the west of the conurbation except in Telford;
Relatively poor communications, restricting access from rural areas to the west into the core of the Black Country and Birmingham. This suggests that the construction of the western orbital route would accelerate the decentralisation of the Black Country in this direction; and
A relative lack of demand from Black Country residents arising from prevailing low income levels. This has reduced the extent to which a high value rural hinterland has developed comparable to that which has developed to the north and south of Birmingham, for example. However, consideration of dwelling prices in Wyre Forest and Bridgnorth suggests that this is no longer a major constraint.
20 Black Country Study: Population and Household Scenario Forecasts 2001-2031, Graham Smith, Mott MacDonald, October 2004
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Figure 5.6: Population Change in West Midlands Region, 1951-2001 Figure 5.7: Dwellings change in West Midlands Region, 1951-2001
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5.3.3 Regional Social Trends
The socio-economic and policy factors which have driven the process of population decentralisation within the region are complex and have varied between places and over time. Key social trends identified are as follows:
Changing family and household structures, which are encapsulated in reducing average household size: early twentieth century living arrangements frequently involved extended families (multi-generational households) with children remaining in the family home until or even after marriage and grandparents or other relatives living with families, but trends over the last part of the century saw an increasing preference for couples to live alone, and for children to live independently from an earlier age. Other trends leading to more small households including increasing rates of divorce and separation, and the expansion of participation in higher education. These pressures led to a much more rapid increase in household numbers than population, and even to increases in household numbers where the population was in decline. The desire to live independently from parents and other relatives was facilitated by an increasing supply of housing and by greater economic prosperity.
Changing preferences and aspirations: from the 1950s onwards changing lifestyles and aspirations, including increasing leisure time for hobbies including gardening, and awareness of the health and education problems caused by overcrowding also led to changes in housing demand, which were expressed in terms of preferences for larger dwellings, for gardens, indoor WC facilities, bathrooms, and fitted kitchens. In themselves these increased the overall demand for housing. In addition, better-paid households were increasingly able to afford to move out to more attractive suburban and rural areas in order to experience a better physical environment. Increasing levels of car ownership and improvements to roads enabled households to move out to suburban locations without leaving their existing employment. These trends developed gradually at first but accelerated in the 1990s as a result of a long period of economic prosperity, and increasing levels of female economic activity.
Growing polarisation: the cumulative impact of selective migration left behind higher proportions of deprived and socially excluded households and levels of crime increased whilst at the same time the capacity of areas losing population to sustain high quality services declined, leading to a spiral of decline as more and more people were motivated to move to areas perceived to offer a better quality of life. In the 1990s, these trends have also become increasingly complex, with the development of specialist demand groups such as students, affluent young professionals, and affluent middle aged and older people. Some groups express preferences for urban rather than suburban or rural living, but typically these groups are attracted by specialised city centre facilities and environments, as distinct from inner city ones. Often they are attracted to new housing, or refurbished housing of innovative design, rather than to traditional terraced or semi-detached housing types. They are also as likely to be discouraged by poor environments and concentrations of crime or anti-social behaviour as other groups. The Black Country finds it hard to compete for these groups with Birmingham.
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Public sector led decentralisation driven by housing need: in the 1950s and 60s, the demand for local authority housing was driven by the two post-war baby booms, aspirations towards independent living outlined above, and by the displacement of households as a result of the clearance of areas of high density slum housing. At this stage, local authority housing was still seen by many lower income households as lifetime tenure. The high level of demand for local authority housing led to provision on peripheral greenfield sites and brownfield sites created by slum clearance, but subsequently also to the development of new towns, and overspill estates around existing towns. In the West Midlands Redditch and Telford provide the main examples of such planned decentralisation, much of which took the form of social rented housing provided through New Town Development Corporations. Most New Town development in the 1960s and 70s was public sector led, but from 1980 onwards, this was increasingly replaced by private sector provision on land initially allocated for public housing for which the Development Corporations and their successors retained outstanding planning permissions (see Telford case study below).
Private sector led decentralisation facilitated by predict and provide planning techniques: In addition to the planning of public sector provision, the planning system increasingly played a part in private sector provision through the development planning system, boosted by the advent of structure planning and the regional planning tier. Developments in household estimation techniques based on the projection of emerging trends towards greater household formation, and pressures from developers, led to the emergence of ‘predict and provide’ based provision on greenfield sites. At the same time, a desire to contain the expansion of urban settlements led to the development of Greenbelt policies, which led new development to leapfrog such areas.
Telford New Town: case study
During the 1960s, Redditch’s proximity to Birmingham conferred the advantages of a satellite town. However, Dawley’s distance from the conurbation made the process of containing the population growth of Birmingham more difficult.
“In 1963, Dawley new town was intended to take 50,000 people from the conurbation and so to grow into a town of 70,000 or more. By 1968, Telford was intended to take an additional 50,000 and grow to 220,000 or more by 1991. However, by 1983, Telford’s population was just under 108,000, and it was generally thought that it might not reach 120,000 by the time of the development corporation’s demise, expected in the late 1980s”21.
In terms of demography, the population of Telford stood at approximately 60,000 in 1968. In terms of geography, the landscape was approximately one-third built up, one-sixth derelict mining land and the remainder farmland.22
21 www.british-history.ac.uk
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Overall, the development corporation inherited an area blighted by 250 years of mining and heavy industry. To a partial extent, it had eradicated the worst of the dereliction but this was coupled with a significant decline in the coal and iron industries. Consequently, the main legacy of the development corporation was one of high unemployment.
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In terms of housing, new estates were quickly built at Brookside, Sutton Hill and Woodside, but to a defective Radburn design and of a poor construction standard by the development corporation. Later, the disposal policy of the corporation led to cut-price sales of properties to private landlords and level of owner occupation inconsistent with the quality of the stock (and its value) and income levels in the estates which are similar to those of many Black Country neighbourhoods.
Overall the expansion of the town was coupled with transport improvements in road infrastructure. A key physical problem for Telford in the 1970s was a link to the country’s motorway network. The completion of the M54 in 1983 is being an important contributing factor to Telford’s continued growth.
The 1980s witnessed an influx of population creating a demand for local amenities such as schools, housing and public services. Over time, larger houses have been built to attract and sustain affluent sections of the population. University provision has expanded and town facilities such as the Ice Rink, Racquet Centre, banks and other firms have firmly based themselves in Telford.
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5.4 Sub-Regional Drivers
This section identifies the key sub-regional drivers of housing market change in the area.
4.3.7 5.4.1 Industrialisation, De-Industrialisation and Changing Urban Form
The Black Country and Telford are amongst the oldest industrial areas in the world. They have therefore experienced successive waves of economic development and restructuring over a period of 250 years, which has left its mark on the urban form. Only in the last half century have these market forces been significantly regulated by a land and town planning framework.
Black Country The Black Country originated as a widespread sprawl of village-based cottage industries and later large-scale coalmining and heavy industry. Its development was intimately related to the growth of Birmingham as a major centre of manufacturing.
The oldest areas of industrial activity in the Black Country were concerned with mining and associated extractive industries such as quarries; foundries, and wrought iron-work. Dozens of townships grew up around pits, quarries and specialist industries such as chain-making, locks and glass. These settlements were highly dispersed over an area of 136 square miles.
The Black Country supplied the raw materials such as coal, clay and iron and also semi- finished products for Birmingham’s expanding metal trades. The construction of canals and later railways reflected this traffic and further shaped economic activity, especially the corridor between Birmingham and Wolverhampton, the Black Country’s major settlement, 13 miles to the north-west.
The mining and extractive industries had been under threat from the 1870s and largely disappeared in the depression of the 1930s. The South Staffordshire coalfield was also finally exhausted about this time. The parts of the Black Country most badly affected by the depression were the areas to the west of the Rowley Hills such as Dudley, Cradley Heath and Brierley Hill - with unemployment averaging 20% until the onset of the Second World War23. As a result of these processes, by 1947, 57% of the total land area of the Black Country was either undeveloped, open spaces or derelict24.
23 Conurbation: A Survey of Birmingham and the Black Country, West Midland Group on Post-war Reconstruction and Planning, Architectural Press, 1948, page 125
24 Conurbation, op cit page 174.
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Parts of the Black Country benefited from the ‘new economy’ of the interwar years. In Wolverhampton, the Goodyear tyre factory was established in 1927 and the arrival of Courthaulds in Dunstall Park provided 3,600 jobs by 1933. Unemployment in Smethwick was down to below 4% by 1937 with a strong engineering base. The considerable house-building of the inter-war years created the first suburban residential neighbourhoods, but even in the 1940s the Black Country was still a series of separate settlements of varying sizes. Figure 5.8 showing the residential areas conurbation at this time reveals this fragmented pattern clearly, with Birmingham standing out as a far more cohesive urban entity. It also shows the continued location of housing in the immediate town centres of Wolverhampton, Walsall and Dudley.
Full employment enjoyed by the conurbation in the post-war period was based particularly on metal manufacturing and persisted until the early 1970s. Post-war residential development grew the total housing stock by 61% from 283,000 to 455,000 over 50 years to 2001. Essentially the Black Country expanded ‘because it could’ due to plentiful land supply.
Table 5.5 shows that outer Black Country districts such as Aldridge, Tettenhall and others such as Solihull and Sutton Coldfield around Birmingham were only 25% built-up. The scale of dereliction in the Black Country’s core areas just after the war shown in Figure 5.9 is striking.
Entire new residential neighbourhoods were developed in the post-war period in the western and northern fringes of the Black Country (see Figure 5.8 showing the historical pattern of residential development in the Black Country in five periods of the last century, namely 1900, 1923, 1938, 1974 and 2004). As a result, since the war the separate settlements have largely fused into what amounts to one single urban agglomeration, partly through infill and partly through peripheral growth.
Within the Black Country core, many of these derelict sites were soon covered by early post- war housing developments, often with limited regard to issues of ground contamination or ground conditions. Peter Wood argued in 1975 that this infill produced no real improvement in the quality of the environment of the Black Country core:
“… some of the worst damage to the area has been perpetuated in the last 30 years through open land unthinkingly built upon, shopping centres insensitively redeveloped, factories badly sited and new roads crudely aligned.” Peter A Wood (1975), Industrial Britain: The West Midlands, David & Charles, page 19.
However, areas to the west of the Rowley Hills away from the core, whilst in some cases facing issues of land contamination, nevertheless have had more than 70 years for a different land use to emerge. For example, industrial Stourbridge gave way to affluent modern suburban Stourbridge, with entirely new residential localities developed around the town in the boundaries of the old Stourbridge borough, but also places like Amblecote.
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By the early 1970s the impact of deindustrialisation was beginning to be felt. When the giant Courthaulds works closed in 1971 unemployment was still only 2.1% in Wolverhampton. In the 1979-81 recession it lost 10,000 (18%) of its manufacturing jobs, with almost a fifth (19%) of the city’s workforce unemployed by 1985. Waves of closures and job losses swept across the core of the Black Country. Derelict sites were often enormous such as the Bilston and Round Oak Dudley steelworks or Patent Shaft in Wednesbury.
Economic change has therefore had a profound impact on the Black Country housing market. Pollution and unattractive environments associated with these industries (see Figures 5.10 and 5.11) prevented the development of high income housing areas across much of the Black Country, whilst low levels of pay and from the 1960s increasing levels of unemployment increased the demand for and provision of local authority housing, often built to relatively poor standards and with little investment in repair or upgrading to include modern facilities, and perpetuated much poorer conditions in the private rented sector. As the decline in traditional sectors increased, rising industrial dereliction compounded the unattractiveness of the area to higher income groups and emphasised the advantages of surrounding more rural areas.
At the same time, the decline of manufacturing often led to long-term unemployment rather than to a move to find employment elsewhere, especially where those affected were older male employees. However, it contributed to out-migration by younger households and after a lag associated with the ageing of the population previously associated with manufacturing industry, began to feed through into vacancy rates in both the social rented sector and the private sector in the 1990s. The impact of past decline is still reflected in lower than average activity rates.
Telford A similar process of restructuring occurred in Telford. Coalbrookdale, within what would become Telford, was a further cradle of industrialisation. From around 1750 coal and iron industries grew on a large scale and by 1806 the area had Britain’s second largest ironworks. Rapid development of industrial settlements, mining and transport infrastructure such as canals, new roads and railways took place. However, the area’s heavy industry began to decline in the same manner and at the same time as its Black Country counterpart.
Paradoxically, although there were high levels of unemployment throughout the 1930s the east Shropshire (Coalbrookdale) coalfield continued to prosper into the 1940s and 1950s. Areas such as Wellington developed a shopping and service centre by the 1950s. Similarly, by 1900 Oakengates grew into a small, densely built up town. Conversely, the area of Dawley contained the greatest concentration of the declining basic industries resulting in a residual population and desolate landscape. Even by the late 1960s one-sixth of the development corporation area was derelict mining land.
The post-war picture was similar in Telford to the Black Country, with employment growth evident in the vehicle components industry, metal and the manufacturing of electrical and
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“Six (firms) in Dawley new town, employing 1,287 people in 1964, had come to Dawley or Madeley between 1941 and 1960. The new jobs, amounting to 28 per cent of the new town's 4,563 industrial jobs in 1964, were mainly women's; and it is noteworthy that the large pool of female labour available in the area, the result of the long preponderance of heavy industry, probably continued to help the new town to attract firms from the conurbation”25.
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Figure 5.8: Historical Pattern of Residential Areas in the Black Country 1900-2004
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Table 5.5: Land Use Urban Density And Population Change 1947 1951-2001 Administra- Person Built- Derelict % Change % Change % Change tive Area s per Up and not in in in in Dwellings Acre (%) use* (%) Population Households
County Boroughs: Birmingham 20.6 56.6 - -21.8 7.0 17.8 Dudley 15.3 52.6 18.9 -20.0 14.6 24.0 Smethwick 31.4 78.8 0.8 -41.4 -24.1 -14.1 Walsall 12.3 45.4 8.9 -3.3 34.5 46.9 West 11.6 41.9 9.0 -10.2 31.0 44.3 Bromwich Wolverhampt 16.1 60.3 3.7 -18.2 15.2 26.6 on Municipal Boroughs and Urban Districts: Aldridge 2.2 20.3 0.1 96.3 195.6 205.4 Amblecote 4.3 34.3 9.0 248.3 358.4 384.5 Bilston 16.9 63.1 21.9 -32.9 1.5 10.7 Brierley Hill 7.9 38.5 17.2 59.4 123.6 135.7 Coseley 9.0 38.9 33.1 34.6 95.4 104.7 Darlaston 13.2 50.3 15.7 -0.8 42.5 54.5 Halesowen 7.0 33.7 2.3 35.4 80.1 90.7 Oldbury 14.2 60.9 4.2 -12.3 27.2 39.3 Rowley Regis 11.7 44.1 18.5 4.6 45.6 57.9 Sedgley 5.4 35.9 8.0 71.0 143.8 150.8 Solihull 2.6 24.8 - 90.7 158.3 168.7 Stourbridge 8.4 44.9 1.4 30.2 74.9 85.0 Sutton 2.7 26.5 0.2 73.2 132.0 142.4 Coldfield Tettenhall 2.7 28.0 0.8 204.3 313.9 323.6 Tipton 17.3 65.0 21.7 -16.7 29.9 37.7 Wednesbury 16.6 54.2 25.6 -36.8 -8.7 -2.0 Wednesfield 5.8 30.1 8.3 78.5 163.0 182.2 Willenhall 10.0 28.2 21.9 39.5 101.3 118.0 Total Black 12.1 43.9 5.0* 7.8 50.9 58.9 Country and Birmingham Conurbation *data for Black Country only Source: Conurbation op cit Tables VI, XXXIV and XXXV; Census of Population 1951 and 2001
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Figure 5.9: Derelict and Empty Land in the Black Country 1947
Source: Conurbation, op cit, p171
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Figure 5.10: Impact of Extractive Industries (1) Oldbury Area 1947
Source: Conurbation, opt cit, p164
Figure 5.12: Impact of Extractive Industries (2) Oldbury area 1947
Source: Conurbation, op cit, p180
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5.4.2 Governance and Municipalism An arguably overlooked factor in the shaping of the modern Black Country is the legacy of the fragmented local government structure of the conurbation that persisted into the 1970s.
Birmingham grew outwards as a classic industrial city, administered by a single unitary authority and gradually absorbing adjacent areas such as Aston, Handsworth and Harborne. Planned infrastructure developments and radial transport routes mark it out today.
However, the Black Country lacked this city effect. For most of the 20th Century it was ‘balkanised’ between the 21 local authority districts that existed in the Black Country prior to 1966 (see Figure 5.13). Four of these were like Birmingham - county boroughs and unitary councils enjoying the full range of the extensive local government functions of the period. These included the running of gas, water and electricity utilities, fire and even police watch committees. There were also 16 lesser authorities operating underneath the Staffordshire and Warwickshire county councils - with the urban districts largely restricted to housing, libraries and swimming baths. Some of these had rateable values per head only 40% of the conurbation average26. One legacy of this was the poor quality of council housing built by districts such as Tipton.
Although in some cases several authorities in combination were gradually exercising responsibilities, such as planning, fire and education, the overall picture was of fragmentation and even conflict. Tensions were compounded by administrative boundaries rendered bizarre by the changing built environment27. Within this framework, there was certainly a competitive element of council house building between them - with new housing adding to the rateable value of the individual districts. Sandwell Council ultimately inherited nearly 60,000 council units from its six former districts.
The local government reorganisations of 1966/74 eventually rationalised the Black Country’s ‘patchwork quilt’ through a two-tier metropolitan structure, although this removed the unitary status enjoyed by the county boroughs. However, the upper tier, the West Midlands county council, was abolished in 1986 leaving services like fire and police administered through joint structures, but with strategic planning an acknowledged casualty of the process.
At the same time, the loss of the smaller authorities into larger structures without clear identities and perceived as rather remote, eroded traditional local political relations. The need to govern and fuse together different towns arguably led the new metropolitan districts to neglect the need to continue to manage them as the urban entities they still remained. It was now possible to countenance, for example, the A457 link road from Birmingham through to the M5, which nevertheless demolished half of Smethwick’s high street and severed it from its hinterland (see Smethwick case study in section 5.4.5). This sense of remoteness still applies to Sandwell and helps the other districts. In the case of Sandwell, the Council has
26 Conurbation, op cit page 47.
27 The conurbation study noted that “Perhaps the strangest boundary of all is that of Coseley, with repeated staggerings on the west, against Sedgley, and two pan-handles on the east; a large and almost derelict area sticking out for almost a mile between Bilston and Tipton, and a smaller one through the north of Bradley.” Conurbation, op cit, page 55. 108 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 actively developed six town committees with some devolution of powers and much better monitoring of town-wide impacts and patterns of change.
Telford had an equally complicated provenance, based around a lattice of rural district councils with urban districts intermingling (see Figure 5.13). Coherence was brought to this through the development of a New Town structure, initially based on Dawley from 1963.
In conclusion, the history of governance in the area has shaped the urban form and housing profile and contributed significantly to the current conditions of housing market weakness that exist. The development of new sub-regional policy frameworks - including the Black Country Spatial Framework, the Black Country Regeneration Zones, the Wolverhampton- Telford High Technology Corridor, and now the potential HMRA itself - offer new potential for strategic planning to address current inconsistencies and weaknesses left as legacies by previous fragmentation of governance structures.
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Figure 5.13: Patchwork Quilt: Black Country & Telford Authorities, 1951
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4.3.8 5.4.3 Public Policy
Planned decentralisation of activity Decline in traditional manufacturing industries was also accompanied by some decentralisation of industry and employment. In part this was linked to the planned decentralisation of population referred to above. The New Towns aimed not only to provide housing but also local employment for their residents. But in addition, changes in the nature of economic activity led to a demand for sites located near to transport routes (such as the motorways), greenfield sites which were easier and cheaper to develop, sites in more attractive areas to attract a better educated and more skilled workforce, and larger sites which were not readily available in the older urban core. This further reinforced trends in population decentralisation.
Measures to regenerate the economy in the areas worst affected by manufacturing decline have had some impact. These measures had led to the creation of new employment in light manufacturing, distribution and some services. Organisations such as the Black Country Development Corporation (BCDC) built a new road infrastructure through the core of the conurbation and with it a ribbon of new business activity, as well as fostering new housing on former industrial sites. Figure 5.13 shows the decline in unemployment in the 1983-2004 period.
Council Housing Sales and Clearance The impact of two decades of sales of local authority stock and clearance of unpopular stock has been to dramatically thin out the concentrations of social rented housing. Although there is still a high level of social rented provision notably in the north of the Black Country, it is now intermixed with former council rented stock that is now owner occupied or privately rented. For example, the 1981/2001 comparison (see Figures 3.22 and 3.23) shows a near complete tenure transformation of the Bristnall area in Sandwell. This is explained by Figure 5.15 which illustrates the original ‘footprint’ of the Bristnall area, a 1930s Smethwick overspill council estate now punctuated by extensive right to buy sales.
Anecdotally, it is suggested that 60% of households receive means-tested benefits in former Right-To-Buys, partly due to ageing populations and a shift to private renting. Poor condition of RTB properties due to lack of maintenance is an increasing concern for the Black Country and Telford authorities.
Figure 5.15 shows the dramatic tenure transformation achieved in the South Telford estates through the disposal policy of the New Town Development Corporation: Brookside was 94.3% social housing in 1981, now down to 32.1%; Woodside from 89.9% to 33.7%; Sutton Hill from 66.3% to 19%. It also shows the growing importance of the private rented sector, which caused owner occupation in South Telford to fall back in the 1990s. Private renting rose from 1.1% in 1981 to 4% in 1991 before surging to 13.4% in 2001.
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Figure 5.13: Claimant Unemployment Rates in the Black Country
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Figure 5.14: Land Ownership in Smethwick 2000
Key
Council owned land
Previously owned council land
Source:AWM Smethwick sites Masterplan 2000, Llewelyn Davies and CSR Partnership
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Figure 5.15: Tenure Changes
Tenure Change, South Telford Estates, 1981-2001 Tenure Change, Sutton Hill, 1981-2001 (%) (%)
South Telford Estates 55.7 30.9 13.4 Sutton Hill 01 66.8 19 14.1 01
South Telford Estates 60.2 35.8 4.0 Sutton Hill 91 65.0 28.5 6.4 91
South Telford Estates 17.6 81.3 1.1 Sutton Hill 81 33.1 66.3 0.6 81
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
South Telford Estates 81 South Telford Estates 91 South Telford Estates 01 Sutton Hill 81 Sutton Hill 91 Sutton Hill 01 Private Rented 1.1 4.0 13.4 Private Rented 0.6 6.4 14.1 RSL 81.3 35.8 30.9 RSL 66.3 28.5 19 Owner Occ 17.6 60.2 55.7 Owner Occ 33.1 65.0 66.8
Tenure Change, Woodside, 1981-2001 (%) Tenure Change, Madeley North, 1981-2001 (%) Woodside 01 52.3 33.7 14
Madeley North 01 56.3 33.8 9.8 Woodside 91 61.6 34.2 4.2
Madeley North 91 51.7 44.1 4.2 Woodside 81 9.8 89.9 0.3
Madeley North 81 34.7 61.1 4.2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Woodside 81 Woodside 91 Woodside 01 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Private Rented 0.3 4.2 14 Madeley North 81 Madeley North 91 Madeley North 01 RSL 89.9 34.2 33.7 Private Rented 4.2 4.2 9.8 Owner Occ 9.8 61.6 52.3 RSL 61.1 44.1 33.8 Owner Occ 34.7 51.7 56.3
Tenure Change, Brookside, 1981-2001 (%)
Brookside 01 52.8 32.1 15.1
Brookside 91 60.8 36.6 2.6
Brookside 81 5.5 94.3 0.2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Brookside 81 Brookside 91 Brookside 01 Private Rented 0.2 2.6 15.1 RSL 94.3 36.6 32.1 Owner Occ 5.5 60.8 52.8
Private New Build In recent years, there has been a vigorous private new build market, reflecting the long-term trend, taking advantage of the plentiful land supply within the conurbation and continued household growth.
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New build completions are evident across the whole of the Black Country in Table 5.6 based on data provided by the districts to Mott MacDonald28 showing the significance of sites between 1996-2003 above a selected threshold of 10 units.
However, particular clustering of new build completions is evident in north Dudley, the Tipton area of Sandwell and the south-east of Wolverhampton. Relating this to housing sub- markets, it is evident that new build completions have tended to be concentrated within the northern Black Country core. Outside of the Black Country a huge clustering of new build completions is also evident within central Birmingham.
Table 5.7 presents the actual number of completions by district from 1996 to 2003. Actual completions in the Black Country reached a peak of 2,518 in 1997 and have continued to increase from 2001. Within the Black Country a decrease in actual completions is evident in Dudley from 1999. Conversely, an increase in actual completions is evident in Sandwell and Wolverhampton from 2001. Overall, between the period 1996 to 2003 there were 15,676 actual completions within the Black Country. This compares with a figure of 10,642 actual completions for the same period within Birmingham.
Table 5.6: HMRA New Build Completions 1996 to 2003
Birmingham Solihu Sandwell Dudley Walsall Wolverhampton Black Telford & ll Country Wrekin 1996 1106 529 716 780 444 139 2079 843 1997 697 369 797 635 532 554 2518 977 1998 997 412 855 708 690 204 2457 871 1999 1171 397 611 790 543 158 2102 764 2000 1211 498 798 517 403 201 1919 1014 2001 1538 596 335 411 322 200 1268 804 2002 1984 637 476 375 282 242 1375 622 2003 1938 360 819 359 334 446 1958 - TOTAL 10642 3798 5407 4575 3550 2144 15676 5091 (1996-2002) Source: Joint Metropolitan Districts Development Monitoring System, Mott MacDonald
Table 5.7 below outlines the rate of actual completions on a per 1,000 dwellings basis. The average rate of actual completions per 1000 dwellings in the Black Country from 1996 to 2003 was 4.3 per 1000. Specifically, Dudley and Sandwell had a higher average rate per 1000 compared with the Black Country as a whole (4.5 and 5.6, respectively). Conversely, both Wolverhampton and Walsall experienced much lower average rates of actual completions per 1000 for the same period (2.7 and 0.4, respectively). In terms of the rate of completions per 1000 for both Birmingham and Sandwell, it is clearly evident that there has been a consistently higher rate of actual completions in Sandwell compared to Birmingham from 1988 to 2003.
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Some 5,091 units were built in Telford between 1996 and 2002. This is equivalent to an annual average of 13.2 for 1,000 dwellings compared to an annual average of 4.3 completions in the Black Country and 3.3 completions in Birmingham over a similar period.
Table 5.7: HMRA Completion Rates (000s)
Birmingham Sandwell Dudley Walsall Wolverhampton Black Telford & Country Wrekin 1988 2.7 2.9 - - - - 1989 2.2 2.8 - - - - 1990 2.0 7.0 - - - - 1991 2.4 7.2 - - - - 1992 1.9 5.7 - - - - 1993 3.4 3.9 - - - - 1994 2.4 4.0 - - - - 1995 2.7 4.5 - - - - 1996 2.7 6.0 6.1 0.4 1.4 4.6 13.2 1997 1.7 6.7 4.9 0.5 5.5 5.5 15.3 1998 2.5 7.1 5.5 0.7 2.0 5.4 13.7 1999 2.9 5.1 6.2 0.5 1.6 4.6 12.0 2000 3.0 6.7 4.0 0.4 2.0 4.2 15.9 2001 3.8 2.8 3.2 0.3 2.0 2.8 12.6 2002 4.9 4.0 2.9 0.3 2.4 3.0 9.8 2003 4.8 6.8 2.8 0.3 4.4 4.3 - Average annual 3.3 5.6 4.5 0.4 2.7 4.3 13.2 rate per 1000, (1996-2002) 1996 - 2003 Source: Joint Metropolitan Districts Development Monitoring System, Mott MacDonald
Table 5.8 utilises available information on the planning pipeline supplied by other districts to Mott MacDonald. The pipeline data is land identified by individual local authorities as being available for housing development as at 1st April 2004 and includes both land with and without planning permission and includes dwellings under construction. The site-specific pipeline data does not include by definition unidentified housing land required to meet RPG targets i.e. unidentified windfalls and new development allocations.
The total pipeline in the Black Country on this basis stands at 8,064. Dudley has the lowest total at 972. Wolverhampton has the highest number with 3,146 dominated by the huge 1,300 Bilston Urban Village Figure 5.17 shows the sites with remaining capacity above 10 units. It suggests that the bulk of the pipeline is confined to Birmingham city centre, a huge site in Bilston and a sprinkling in the town centres and core towns, with little in the fringe reflecting the established nature of these localities.
Table 5.8: Black Country Pipeline at 2004
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Table 3 Total pipeline at 2004* Private properties Birmingham 11,393 10,408 Solihull 2,366 2,115 Sandwell 2,692 2,061 Dudley 992 972 Walsall 2,122 1,885 Wolverhampton 3,216 3,146 Black Country 9,022 8,064
* N.B. Proportion already built Source: Joint Metropolitan Districts Development Monitoring System, Mott MacDonald
The market for new build An understanding of the impact of the recent private sector new build on the operation of the wider housing market in Sandwell was the key objective of a seminal research study by CSR in Sandwell in 1997.
The key finding of this survey of new build sites in Tipton was the attraction of employed, often two income families moving into the Borough to these homes. More than a quarter (28%) moved from outside the Black Country. Most of this group was from Birmingham (17%) but this still leaves 11% inflow to the conurbation
The private new build was concluded to be a success on its own terms and had contributed to the economic regeneration of the Borough. It helped diversify the housing tenure and type mix in the south of Tipton and provided an opportunity for BME buyers to move outside established enclaves in this part of the Borough.
The longer-term concern, however, was that many residents of the new estates would move out of the Borough and even the Black Country in due course. Less than half (48%) wanted to stay in the Black Country and only a further 12% in Birmingham. Nearly a quarter (23%) wanted to leave the conurbation for a market town or rural location and 12% wanted to leave the West Midlands region. A critical factor here is the poor environment of the Borough and general quality of life issues.
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Figure 5.16: Private New Build in the Black Country 1996- Figure 5.17: Pipeline – Sites available for housing, April 2004 2003
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4.3.9 5.4.4 Demographic Trends
Historic Trends Decentralisation of population has been a key feature of the Black Country and surrounding rural areas since the 1950s. Figure 5.18 shows net population change over the 1951-2001 period in the area. Figure 5.20 identifies the net change in the housing stock in the conurbation and Telford.
The populations of the inner urban centres, for example, the old County Boroughs of Smethwick, West Bromwich, Walsall and Dudley show significant decline (Figure 5.19). The insets (Figures 5.19 and 5.22) examine the pattern of decline in population (-41%) and dwellings (-14%) in Smethwick and also see the Smethwick case study in section 5.4.5 to illustrate localised drivers in the Black Country. As noted above, this is due to the post-war suburbanisation around the fringe of the conurbation.
In contrast Birmingham’s stock grew by only 24% in the same period. This was certainly a factor in the Black Country managing a better performance than Birmingham in retaining population during the last half century. The combined population of Birmingham and Sutton Coldfield (absorbed by Birmingham in 1974) fell by 18% from 1951 and 2001, compared to a rise of 5% in the Black Country although this overall population growth specifically occurred in the 1951-61 period.
Additionally, in the Black Country, migration was initially to suburban districts reflecting the continuing industrial culture of living close to work. In Birmingham there was a greater tendency towards longer-range moves out of the conurbation29.
Overall population growth in the Black Country occurred mainly in the early post-war period. Nevertheless, the falls in population in parts of the core of the Black Country have occurred alongside a collapse in the mixed-use environment and the emergence of low demand in the social rented sector, most spectacularly in Smethwick but also in parts of Wolverhampton. The core has been hollowed out and this process can be expected to continue.
Figures for Telford show a high rate of growth over the period 1951 to 2001 - of between 100% and 249% change in most parts of Telford.
29 The environment of the Black Country provided no alternative to migrants from Birmingham’s inner core and there was not significant movement from Birmingham to the Black Country in this period. However, analysis undertaken by CURS/CSR of 2001 census migration data alongside a survey of new build purchasers for the Urban Living HMR pathfinder shows recent movement from Birmingham to Sandwell, but not vice versa. This inflow, mainly to the Smethwick area, is largely from BME groups.
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Figure 5.18: Population Change in West Midlands Conurbation and Telford & Wrekin, 1951-2001, by 1951 Local Authority Area
Figure 5.19: Population Change in Smethwick Wards 1951-2001
Figure 5.20: Dwellings Change in West Midlands Conurbation and Telford & Wrekin, 1951-2001, by 1951 Local Authority Area
Figure 5.21: Dwellings Change in Smethwick Wards 1951 - 2001
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Population Projections Demographic projections for the Black Country, Telford sub-region suggest a two speed sub- region. According to ONS forecasts for 2021:
the Black Country population, as part of the Birmingham/Black Country sub-region, will remain static (less than 1% population growth, against a regional forecast of 2% and a national (UK) figure of 7%; whilst Telford’s population, in contrast, is forecast to grow by 9% - the highest level in the West Midlands region.
Whilst the Black Country growth is low, it follows population loss in Sandwell (-8%), Wolverhampton (-7.1%), and Walsall (-5.6%) for the period 1982-2002 and would require a reversal of historic trends.
All of these figures are higher than the percentage population loss with the Stoke-on-Trent urban area (5.5%), where population decline has been one of the key arguments in the justification of a housing market renewal area, Only Dudley – of the four Black Country districts – experienced population growth during this period (1.2%).
The Black Country Study In developing a Spatial Framework for translating the aspirations set out in the Black Country Vision into a preferred land use and transportation structure, a number of household growth scenarios have been developed and tested30 using the ‘Chelmer Population and Household Model’ (CPHM)31 Mott MacDonald32.
The forecasts are calculated for each of the Black Country districts and in total, and incorporate latest ONS population total estimates and data on mortality, fertility and marital status, etc. They test the impact on population of planned (through RPG/RSS) house-building and clearance totals and the resulting change in the housing stock over the next 20 years (+45,000 units) and 30 years (+73,000). The forecasts are presented in Annex A.
The analysis concludes that if these levels of activity did occur, and for housing void levels to remain constant, the historic pattern of out-migration would need to be significantly reversed. A shift to an annual gain of 3,200 in the period 2021-31 compared to the most recent loss of
30 Four scenario projections have been carried out in line with the original Black Country Terms of Reference Spatial Framework Brief to inform discussion and a final set of three scenario projections were then developed further to provide the demographic background to underpin more detailed spatial planning work on prospects and aspirations for economic growth and the land use and transport implications.
31 This is a ‘cohort survival’ model developed and enhanced over many years by Anglia Polytechnic University, used by the majority of local authorities in the UK and has been tested many times through Structure Plans, Unitary Development Plans, Regional and sub-regional studies by both local authorities and the private sector including the House Builders Federation.
32 Black Country Study: Population and Household Scenario Forecasts 2001-2031, Graham Smith, Mott MacDonald, October 2004.
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4,200 p.a. is needed. Indeed the gap between the trend line and an extension of RPG over the full 30-year period to 2031 is 209,000 population and 74,000 households. This figure should be seen in the context of ambitious Thames Gateway plans for circa 90,000 new properties and the Merseyside HMR Pathfinder plans for an extra 50,000 homes.
In contrast, the successful application of RPG to Telford would result in a population increase of 49,500 to 2031 compared to the existing trend where 45,900 could be expected. However, this needs net inflow of population to rise to around 950 per annum compared to 700 now. Whilst this shift is relatively small it would be happening at the same time as the Black Country needing inflow of 3,200 p.a. compared to 4,200 outflow now. A key issue for housing market renewal will be the management of population growth in the sub-region to ensure that demographic growth targets for the Black Country can be met.
Given the consistent loss of population in the Black Country over recent decades (including even Dudley since 1991) which is based in part on a remarkably stable level of migration) further decline could be confidently expected. It shows the challenge posed by the RPG levels of new build within the conurbation alongside the needs of Telford and other urban areas. Urban renaissance in the Black Country requires the need to develop a higher quality stock to retain and indeed attract aspirational groups to the conurbation. The trend scenario anticipates only modest household growth in the next two decades of the 30-year planning period and decline thereafter. Strong net growth in the housing stock alongside probably modest household growth would be likely to increase void rates above current levels. This suggests that currently planned clearance rates would need to be increased - if the reversal of migration does not occur sufficiently - in order to maintain the necessary replacement of aspirational housing and to hold existing void rates.
The ageing of the population and other changes such as the decline of families and the growth of single person and sharing households has considerable implications over time for changing needs and aspirations and therefore housing conversions and new build designs.
BME Groups and International Migration The core Black Country areas and Birmingham have significant and growing BME communities. These communities developed throughout the Post-War period. Male immigrants from BME groups were initially attracted to Birmingham and the Black Country by employment opportunities in manufacturing industry, and those who stayed were subsequently joined by family and relatives.
These communities initially established themselves in inner city locations where privately rented housing and low cost home ownership were available, in part because of the changing aspirations of the white population. Continuing inflow and higher birth-rates have dramatically expanded these original communities, and they form the majority of the population in the inner cities of Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Sandwell - and constitute more than 20% in a further band of neighbourhoods surrounding them. Figures 5.22 and 5.23 (and Table 5.9) show the proportion of BME population in the Black Country and inner city Birmingham in 1991 and 2001. Considerable growth is apparent.
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Table 5.9: BME Population as % of Total Population, Census 2001 Number % Birmingham 289,706 29.65 Coventry 48,196 16.02 Dudley 19,286 6.32 Sandwell 57,401 20.29 Solihull 10,794 5.41 Stoke 12,537 5.21 Telford 8,296 5.24 Walsall 43,450 13.59 Wolverhampton 52,545 22.21
The Black Country picture cannot be seen in isolation from Birmingham, which has a large Pakistani population to the south and east of the city centre. There is a large Black community in social housing areas on the fringes of the city centre and to the north in the highly diverse Handsworth area. Figure 5.24 shows this for 2001.
Wolverhampton and to some extent Sandwell have very large Indian communities. The main concentrations of Pakistani residents live in Walsall’s inner city, Dudley Town Centre and Tipton and the Lye area. There are no predominantly Pakistani or Bangladeshi localities in Wolverhampton. Smethwick has probably the most diverse BME profile within the Black Country.
As a result of low incomes and a preference or need to remain within established communities, most BME groups have remained relatively concentrated in certain areas, but there have been some gradual shifts in population over time. Figure 5.25 enables comparison with 1991. Some caution should be exercised since these show preponderance not actual population totals.33 Indian households in particular have dispersed into both affluent and poorer areas, as can be seen in Wolverhampton and Walsall. In contrast Pakistani and Bangladeshi households have remained highly concentrated. The apparent divergence of Indian and Pakistani groups may be driven more by economic than cultural factors. Areas such as Handsworth, Smethwick and Whitmore Reans have become much more diverse. This partly reflects continued international migration but also the rise in mixed-race populations.
BME communities of Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Black ethnic origin have had a major impact on the Black Country housing market over the last three decades and these communities are expanding more rapidly than the white population as a result of a youthful age profile, continuing in migration from established communities and the advent of new communities in recent years.
33 Figure 5.48 shows the numerically predominant minority ethnic group in localities where the overall BME population is more than 20%. In areas above this threshold a particular group is identified where it comprises more than 50% of the BME total (rather than more than 50% of the entire population which includes white groups). Where no single ethnic group is numerically predominant these are shown as ethnically mixed areas and there are indicated by hatching on the map. Importantly, this measures preponderance not intensity within residential areas. For example, the Black population of inner Birmingham is concentrated in the high density flats/maisonettes of Lea Bank etc. The footprint of these localities is small particularly when mapped at this scale. 123 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited
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In many respects, these communities can be said to have sustained the areas in which they are now located, which otherwise might have been subject to lower levels of demand. Without the presence of these groups, problems of vacancies would be much more severe than they are at present.
They represent perhaps the best opportunity for creating or retaining sustainable communities in parts of the Black Country in the future. However, the impact of different BME communities on neighbourhood change is a complex issue, and the presence and expansion of BME communities has also been a factor contributing to the out movement of some white households as a result of racial prejudice, a phenomenon referred to as ‘white flight’.
National house condition surveys have shown that BME households typically experience poorer housing conditions than white households, and are especially likely to experience problems of overcrowding.
There is a need to clarify the future intentions, aspiration and needs of these communities and to assess the implications for housing in the area. Do different BME communities intend, for example, to remain in the area, or are they likely to seek better quality housing elsewhere, and if so, what might persuade them to remain in the area?
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Figure 5.22: % Population BME, by 2001 Output Area Figure 5.23: % Population BME, by 1991 Enumeration District
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Figure 5.24: Predominant BME Group, by 2001 Output Area Figure 5.25: Predominant BME Group, by 1991 Enumeration District
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Asylum Seekers and Refugees The last five years, following the establishment of NASS, has seen significant number of asylum seekers placed in the West Midlands conurbation and many asylum seekers who have received leave to remain in the UK have remained living in the region. There is also evidence to suggest that significant numbers of new refugees from other UK dispersal areas are moving into the West Midlands.
The recent report by CURS for the West Midlands Regional Housing Strategy and Spatial Strategy revealed a number of characteristics of the regional asylum seeker population: ‘A total of 9604 asylum seekers were identified as currently living in the West Midlands with the vast majority of these individuals being placed in the central sub-region. Analysis of NASS data indicates that the majority of asylum seekers placed in the region are aged under 35 (76.6%) with the largest proportion being aged between 25 and 34. Some 72% of asylum seekers are male and 28% female. The largest ethnic group are Iraqis (19.9%) followed by Africans (19.4%), Iranians (12.7%) and Afghanis (10.9%). The majority of NASS applicants were singles (74.34%), 8.43% were couples and 17.16% were families’.34
The biggest populations of asylum seekers are located in Birmingham (3792), Sandwell (1354), Coventry (1225), Wolverhampton (936), Stoke (731), Dudley (711 and Walsall (552). Figures 5.26 and 5.27 show locations of asylum seekers and refugees across the West Midlands region. It can be seen that the greatest proportions of asylum seekers are concentrated in small geographical areas.
Estimates carried out by CURS suggest that there are currently (end 2004) 44,260 refugees in the West Midlands region and this will increase to 69,865 by the end of 2007. In Birmingham the highest numbers of refuges are residing in Soho, Nechells, Sparkbrook, Handsworth and Small Heath. In Coventry the highest proportions are in Henley, Binley and Willenhall. In Wolverhampton the highest numbers are found in St Peter’s, Graisley and Heath Town. Age structures of refugees tend to be slightly older than asylum seekers although the majority (62.7%) are still aged below 34. Information on the ethnicity of refugees suggests that the largest group are Africans (30.2%) by Iraqis (23.3%), others (13.7%) and Somalis (13.5).
Overall, data suggests that refugees are more likely to be living as families than asylum seekers – This would go some way towards explaining the predominance of Africans who have a tendency for larger family structures. However, the picture may be skewed by the fact that much of the available data is derived from social housing databases whose priority housing policies would tend to favour families above couples and single people.
The high concentrations of asylum seekers and refugees in parts of the Black Country pose two questions:
Where will the future demand for this housing come from when asylum seekers leave the country or are given permission to stay permanently as refugees?
34 Phillimore, J (2005) West Midlands Regional Housing Strategy; West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy; Shared Evidence Base; Asylum Seekers and Refugees, Centre for Urban and Regional Studies, The University of Birmingham 1 27 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited
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Will those who stay seek to remain in the area, or to move elsewhere? This will depend not just on the availability of housing and the quality (or otherwise) of the housing stock, but also on the pattern of communities and the availability and nature of economic opportunities.
Research for the Learning and Skills Councils for Birmingham and Solihull and Coventry and Warwickshire and the Urban Living Pathfinder reveals some insights into the areas that asylum seekers and refugees aspire to live in. The most popular areas tend to be inner urban neighbourhoods with already established diverse, multi-cultural communities. There is a general tendency for Asylum Seekers to wish to remain in the area where they were dispersed once they receive leave to remain, particularly if a large number of asylum seekers from the same country are placed in the same area. Aspirations will be likely to change over time but initially, due in large part to a lack of knowledge about other areas of the region, refugees typically remain in the neighbourhoods where they were placed as asylum seekers - A household survey recently carried out in the Black Country (Goodson and Phillimore 2005) found that 79% of refugee respondents planned to remain within the Black Country.
There is also some, mainly anecdotal, evidence to suggest that some asylum seekers placed in areas such as Stoke, Dudley and Walsall tend to move into Birmingham, Sandwell (in particular Smethwick), Wolverhampton and Coventry due to there being more diverse populations and better developed support services available in the larger cities.
The Urban Living HMRA and Black Country research has highlighted tenure and property preferences prevalent amongst refugees living in the region as well as the types of facilities they are seeking. In relation to tenure preferences, facilities and property types, a number of key issues arise from the findings of these studies:
Council housing is the preferred tenure choice. However, refugees are commonly very unclear about allocations processes. This tenure preference, given that most of the areas popular with refuges do not have a surplus of social housing is likely to increasingly present significant challenges to local authorities; Refugees have limited knowledge about RSL housing; Good quality transport infrastructure is a key priority to enable access to most facilities and services; Equally, access to a GP, often an issue for refugees, was highlighted as being a key issue; Self sufficiency is regarded by most as being highly important. Hence, jobs and training that could lead to employment are critical; Refugees were typically looking for safe, self-contained accommodation.
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Figure 5.26: Location of asylum seekers across the West Midlands Figure 5.27: Location of refugees living in the West Midlands
5.5 Localised/Neighbourhood drivers
This section identifies localised or neighbourhood drivers of housing market change in the Black Country.
5.5.1 Introduction
There are particular micro-level drivers affecting the performance of clusters of neighbourhoods in the Black Country & Telford. The research literature, for example the DETR 2000 study of low demand housing and unpopular neighbourhoods, confirmed by research undertaken for Housing Market Renewal Pathfinders (for example, CSR’s 2004 North Staffordshire housing market assessment) points to a fairly consistent pattern of causal factors. These include:
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Stigma and poor perception of area, often related to concentrated poverty and/or crime High levels of crime and anti-social behaviour Unpopular dwelling types Design features of dwellings, blocks or estates Condition of dwellings, defects etc Quality and level of maintenance of local environment Inaccessible location (e.g. peripheral estate with limited bus services) Limited or declining local shops and businesses Limited, declining or poor quality local public services, especially schools; and/or constraints on choice for BME groups, associated with potential harassment.
In many instances, there will be several causal factors at work at the same time. Also, some of these factors may be associated with low demand as a consequence as well as a cause. In other words, there can be a self-reinforcing spiral involving low demand and particular factors like crime.
Previous housing market research undertaken by CSR Partnership and CURS for Wolverhampton, Sandwell and Dudley in 1999-2001 indicated that these issues particularly affect the social rented sector in the Black Country.
5.5.2 Housing Design and mixed-use environments
The legacy of poor urban design practice in the Black Country and South Telford continuing into the post-war period has impacted greatly on the popularity and sustainability of many housing developments. The problems include:
Tower blocks in exposed or poorly-landscaped open areas; Deck-access estates with elevated walkways, blind alleys, and dangerous pedestrian routes; Radburn-style estates with lack of secure garden spaces, narrow footpaths thread between back gardens and exposed garage areas; Other estates where car parking is remote or hidden, or where a sense of private, defensible space is diminished. Introverted designs with limited access to estates which also restrict internal movement
Academic research from Australia (Judd et al, 2002 and 2003) has demonstrated a causal relationship between the Radburn design and crime and antisocial behaviour. The article about Brookside reproduced in section 5.5.3 to illustrate area stigma highlights its design flaws: “…a maze making it a police-free playground for ne’er-do-wells.”
Figure 5.28 show an extract from the Woodside masterplan underlining its tight layout and Figure 5.29 show the garages and general unkempt appearance.
The high-rise blocks and flats/maisonettes have been particularly targeted for clearance but still characterise the inner city areas of Wolverhampton (Heath Town, Graiseley Flats etc.)
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Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 and also parts of Sandwell. Figure 5.31 shows the Galton Village estate in Smethwick under construction in 1969 and Figure 5.31 shows conditions before the major estate action scheme of the 1990s.
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Figure 5.28: Woodside Masterplan Figure 5.29: Woodside Estate
Source: Woodside Masterplan Telford & Wrekin Borough Council
Source: Inside Housing 9 July 2004
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Figure 5.30: Galton Village Under Construction circa 1969 Figure 5.31: Galton Village Prior to Estate Action Programme, early 1990s
Source: Joe Russell/Alton Douglas, Joe Russell’s Smethwick, 1987 Source: Brendan Nevin (Personal Collection)
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5.5.3 Area Stigma
There is clear evidence of a market hierarchy or pecking order of neighbourhoods within the Black Country. Some areas have become heavily stigmatised. Importantly, this affects the viewpoints of residents within such neighbourhoods as well as wider communities. Unpopular areas experience population instability and population loss as people vote with their feet. Such stigma reflects actual conditions and then amplifies them and entrenches them. One of the manifestations is the ‘estates of fear’ stories continually applied to certain neighbourhoods in the local press. It also hampers attempts to regenerate them.35 Figure 5.32 shows an old article about Galton Village in Smethwick36 and a more recent article about Brookside in South Telford estates.
As part of market studies conducted by CSR and CURS in 1999-2001, in each of the three districts we surveyed people on the waiting list for council accommodation and asked them which areas they would consider or reject living in. Figure 5.34 summarises the position in terms of a net rating:
In Wolverhampton, Heath Town a 1960s estate of flats/maisonettes has a minus 42 point score. The position is also stark for three 1930s estates, the Lunt (-28%), Scotlands (-36%) and adjacent Low Hill (-26%);
In Dudley, Wren’s Nest scores -32%, Kate’s Hill 14% and Priory -12%. All three of these are 1930s estates; and
In Sandwell, the Smethwick area and the giant 30s Friar Park estate (-15%) fare badly. In Sandwell, a parallel survey of private renters pointed unerringly to the same position, with -6% for Cape Hill and –9% for Friar Park.
Not surprisingly there is a strong relationship between these views and recorded applications and transfer requests. Thus in Dudley in 2001 the waiting list manifested itself in just 17 preferences for Tanhouse, 27 for Chapel Street (both estates of flats/maisonettes) and 54 for Priory, an estate with the lowest RTB levels of any traditionally built estate in the Borough. Whilst overall demand may have recovered in these estates since then due to affordability issues, the likely enduring point about them is that more residents wanted to leave them than move in, a situation of net outflow for applications/transfers. They were unpopular.
35 A contributor to this report recalls in his time as a councillor in Sandwell the attitude of homeless people at his advice surgery towards Windmill Lane and Galton Village in Smethwick, estates undergoing well-advertised and multi-million pound Estate Action investment in the early 1990s. Galton Village was still known locally as the ‘concrete jungle’ and the reaction of people in an apparently desperate housing situation was, “I don’t care about that… [the housing investment] Please don’t send me down the Jungle.”
36 A contributor to this report recalls in his time as a councillor in Sandwell the attitude of homeless people at his advice surgery towards Windmill Lane and Galton Village in Smethwick, estates undergoing well-advertised and multi-million pound Estate Action investment in the early 1990s. Galton Village was still known locally as the ‘concrete jungle’ and the reaction of people in an apparently desperate housing situation was, “I don’t care about that… [the housing investment] Please don’t send me down the Jungle.”
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A survey of potential movers in five estates in Dudley in 2001 (Figure 5.35) underlined the importance of kinship ties and roots in the area in explaining why people lived in these neighbourhoods. Some of them are highly insular. But 21% of people recently moving into them said they had ‘no choice’. This was also the case for 25% of people wanting to leave and was the single most important factor for this group. In Chapel Street, 37% felt they had no choice but to live there.
In Wolverhampton CSR surveyed ‘frequent movers’37 in four unpopular estates: Heath Town, Low Hill, the Lunt and Whitmore Reans. Among this group, 44% wanted to leave their current neighbourhood. Improving the reputation of the area was the second most important measure needed if they were to stay, mentioned by 37%.
The issue of stigma also applies strongly to South Telford (Figure 5.33). A survey in the South Telford estates conducted by CSR Partnership for its final evaluation of the Madeley SRB3 scheme found that most residents believed their neighbourhood to be stigmatised (CSR 2002). Some 62% agreed their area had a bad reputation. This compares with 49% across 20 neighbourhoods in HMR, NDC and SRB areas researched by CSR.
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Figure 5.32: ‘Estates of Fear’ Press
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Figure 5.33: Neighbourhood Dynamics in South Telford Estates compared to Benchmarked Deprived Neighbourhoods
The area has a bad reputation 62% 49%
Neighbourhood is welcoming to 40% new people 58%
Feels isolated and cut off from 37% wider area 14% Sutton Hill and Woodside, South My street is fine but rest of Telford 49% neighbourhood is bad 30% Average for 20 neighbourhoods targeted for SRB, NDC or HMRA Satisfied with neighbourhood 60% 70%
Believe neighbourhood has 18% recently got better 13%
Believe neighbourhood has 52% recently got worse 36%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Source: Surveys conducted by CSR Partnership 2000-2004
5.5.4 Environmental Issues and Crime
The Black Country market studies and extensive other research conclude that the issues of crime and environment to be central as a market driver at local level.
The survey of movers in Dudley found significant differences between individual estates, but the overall pattern of residents’ concern is clear: gangs of youths, vandalism, burglary, and bad neighbours. Litter and fly-tipping concerned Priory and Kate’s Hill residents, and drugs were an issue in Chapel Street.
Among the frequent movers in Wolverhampton wanting to leave their estate, anti-social behaviour, problem neighbours and improving general appearance was key (as well as stigma as we have noted).
A quality of life survey of Telford’s priority neighbourhoods in 2000 found Brookside to have the lowest neighbourhood satisfaction and the highest concern with crime and vandalism and the physical environment of the estate. In Woodside and Sutton Hill area satisfaction was higher, but crime and environment were still key issues.
Local concerns tend to focus more on anti-social behaviour rather than violent crime. This is true for buyers of newly built housing surveyed for the Urban Living Pathfinder by CSR who plan to leave Sandwell or Birmingham at their next move, 18% of which would need anti- social behaviour to be tackled, ahead of improving local environments (7%).
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5.5.5 Demography and Insularity
South Telford is highly insular (Figure 5.33). The Madeley SRB survey found that only 40% said their area was welcoming to new people, the lowest figure among 20 deprived neighbourhoods surveyed by CSR (the average among this group for this issue was 58%). The South Telford estates had the highest proportion (37%) saying their neighbourhood felt isolated and cut off from the wider area (benchmark average 14%). The proportion claiming their street was fine but the rest of the estate was bad (49%) is second only to Langley, the giant peripheral estate in the Oldham-Rochdale Pathfinder (benchmark average 30%).
The survey of residents on council waiting lists in the three Black Country districts suggests that the market has become insular and subject to demographic decline. Around 80% of those surveyed from the waiting list in Dudley already live in Council accommodation, either as a tenant, hoping for a transfer, or as a member of their family, wanting a Council property for the first time. This group of tenants tend to have stable housing histories with 67% having lived in one property over the last five years. Many see little choice in the wider housing market with only 6% being able to buy.
This stable pattern of demand for the Borough is not replicated for the more difficult to let estates. The survey of inward and outward movers in the Dudley estates in Brierley Hill, Netherton and Central Dudley illustrated that people leaving the estates had relatively stable housing histories. However, those moving into the estates were far more volatile with 25% planning to move again within two years. The profile of these in-movers is very similar to frequent movers surveyed in Wolverhampton. Both surveys noted that frequent movers were most likely to be moving within a relatively small geographic area as people who are experiencing domestic pressures take advantage of the emerging surplus in housing to forge a ‘solution’ through moving. Social processes also appear to be a factor behind the decisions by the more stable group of tenants to move out. This cohort of movers is, on average, five years older than inward movers and is frequently seeking larger accommodation. This suggests there is also a life cycle effect, which is influencing supply and demand in these areas.
Moreover, although the Priory estate is distinguished by kinship ties and roots in the area these can be dissuade inward movement and indeed the estate had at the time of the research a negligible waiting list. Other estates with an established reputation for insularity include Wren’s Nest in Dudley and Tibbington in Tipton. The sheer scale of these large traditional housing estates across the core of the Black Country suggests that they are on the cusp of serious decline as inflow of new tenants dries up.
The South Telford estates can be seen to suffer similar problems insularity - in this case largely due to the physical isolation of the estates from the rest of urban Telford.
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Figure 5.34: Neighbourhood Hierarchy in Black Districts: Council Waiting List Surveys 1999-2001
Source: CSR/CURS Black Country Housing Market Studies 1999-2001
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Figure 5.35: Neighbourhood Level Drivers in Black Country: Survey of Recent In-movers and People Wishing to Leave Selected Neighbourhoods in Dudley
Source: CSR/CURS Black Country Housing Market Studies 1999-20001
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5.5.6 Spiral of Decline
The problems of population loss and economic decline inevitably manifest themselves unevenly within a large conurbation. Partly this can be seen in terms of overall market segments such as inner city compared to suburban fringe areas (these sub-markets are discussed in Chapter 3.0). In some places a self-reinforcing spiral is occurring.
The manifestations of this decline were graphically highlighted in the Prime Minister’s forward to the Social Exclusion Unit’s seminal report, Bringing Britain together; a national strategy for neighbourhood renewal (1998):
“We all know the problems of our poorest neighbourhoods – decaying housing, unemployment, street crime and drugs. People who can, move out. Nightmare neighbours move in. Shops, banks and other vital services close.”
A recent study has evaluated progress towards achieving the national strategy’s goal that within 10-20 years no one should be seriously disadvantaged by where they live. Part of the study reviews research evidence to highlight the complex interacting elements of the cycle before concluding it can be simplified into three categories of drivers:
Low levels of economic activity (high levels of worklessness, low levels of business activity);
Poor housing and local environment, unstable communities (crime, fear of crime, antisocial behaviour, litter, graffiti);
Public services and the delivery system (poorly performing education, health and transport services, regeneration programmes not achieving maximum impact).
The following simplified cycle of decline in Figure 5.36 shows how these three drivers fit in the cycle.
This can be seen to have happened in specific neighbourhood clusters and also in certain towns in the Black Country such as Bilston and Smethwick. The latter is considered as a case study below.
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Figure 5.37: Spiral of Decline - Key Drivers
Source: Prime Minister’s Strategy Office and ODPM (2005), Improving the Prospects of People Living in Areas of Multiple Deprivation in England
Smethwick Case Study
Smethwick developed in the nineteenth century as a major industrial centre on the outskirts of Birmingham with factories located along its northern rail and transport corridor. Smethwick formed the ‘new economy’ of the Black Country in the interwar years. Unemployment was down to below 4% by 1937 with the town enjoying a diverse and balanced manufacturing base around motor vehicles and modern engineering sectors. It could boast of being the most industrialised area of England, with 30 of its largest firms providing over 36,000 jobs. It was a compact, densely populated area with one the better urban forms of its time: for the most part a separation of housing and industry, good parks, amenities and public realm. It had a well-regarded unitary council. But it was nearly entirely built up (79%) with no vacant land and had to eventually locate council housing, schools and even a hospital outside its boundary.
This meant that it could not evolve beyond its industrial heyday: its large employers disappeared from the 1970s but its industrial areas remained as ‘shed-land’ or ramshackle low-value activity, inhibiting the development of new residential localities. This land scarcity was a factor in the management of post-war slum clearance, including their high-density maisonettes and tower blocks replacement in Cape Hill and Windmill Lane over 25 years, and the Galton Village estate (see Figures 5.51 and 5.52). Significantly, re-provision of housing was nearly entirely social renting until the late 1980s.
The natural decline in household size over time, in combination with renewed piecemeal clearance pushed some of isolated northern housing areas such as Black Patch, hemmed by factories, rail and new arterial roads, below critical mass in terms of sustainability.
The town’s ‘60s’ council estates ultimately failed through a complex mix of issues including
146 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 poor design and the lettings policy of wider Sandwell, which acted to concentrate socially- stressed households in one place.
In 1988 the council fought-off Government plans to impose a Housing Action Trust (HAT) for the Windmill Lane area. Significant clearance of the postwar replacement housing followed through an Estate Action programme but was arguably insufficient to alter the fundamental position and social mix of the neighbourhood, which remains highly stigmatised. The failure of this postwar restructuring has led to a 61% population loss in Windmill Lane. Across northern Smethwick, population density fell from 29 per acre to 15 with the resulting impact on the viability of local amenities. The rate of decline is similar to that experienced in the central areas of Manchester and Salford.
The complex historical pattern of development of the current housing stock in Smethwick shows dramatic land use shifts including housing clearance and redevelopment.
These issues manifested themselves in a comprehensive unravelling of the town’s purpose and self-confidence. At the same time the loss of amenity seemed to be unremitting and included:
Identity as a place, its own council and own parliamentary seat Bus company, local newspaper, cinemas, neurosurgery centre and local hospital, library, baths, grammar schools and sixth forms, fine buildings, even half its high street School closures including three secondary schools in the last 20 years through falling rolls Loss of industrial giants (Tangyes, Chance, Phillips, Birmid etc)
Smethwick has been targeted by successive regeneration initiatives, some ephemeral but among the most important gains have been the remarkable improvement in education standards and the recent success of private new build ‘bridgeheads’ such as Brindley Urban Village north of the canals. Unemployment has fallen sharply. Smethwick also has a large and diverse BME population dating back to the 1940s which is providing household growth, a local market for aspirational housing (and including BME buyers from Birmingham), and new businesses. A byword for racism after the infamous 1964 general election38; ‘live and let live’ attitudes are more commonplace, although the recent arrival of asylum seekers and refugees has created some tensions.
The example of Smethwick shows the importance for the future development of the Black Country of the economic structure and urban form in shaping the fundamentals of an area. It also shows the need for effective service planning and urban management to understand and reflect the particular dynamics and changing function of towns (not just neighbourhoods) within a polycentric environment. There is little evidence that successive policymakers understood the drivers of change in Smethwick, although more recently the Smethwick
38 When its established Labour MP and putative Foreign Secretary in the incoming Wilson Government, Patrick Gordon-Walker lost his seat to a Conservative candidate using a “vote Labour if you want a nigger neighbour” slogan.
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Regeneration Partnership has sought to develop a comprehensive plan for the town. It shows that places can pass from ‘success’ to ‘problem’ very rapidly. In places facing social disintegration, housing need comes to the fore; but paradoxically, does a starkly low-income town need much in the way of replacement low income housing?
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5.5.7 Policy response: area-based programmes
For most of the last century, the state had been heavily involved in deprived areas: through slum clearance programmes and public housing investment, and the development of public health, education, and transport systems.
In terms of neighbourhood renewal and community-based regeneration, the focus on the regeneration of poor neighbourhoods only really began in the late 1960s when Government acknowledged that more general welfare policies were not reaching many inner-city areas.
The subsequent restructuring of the major metropolitan economies such as Merseyside, Manchester and Birmingham-Black Country in the last 25 years fundamentally changed the nature of the policy intervention required at neighbourhood level.
Local economic decline and unemployment was evidently contributing to rising crime and anti-social behaviour, poor health, family breakdown and social stress (Webster 1998). It was also causing particular neighbourhoods to decline rapidly.
The first Urban Programme schemes had began in 1969, and were followed by a series of initiatives through the succeeding decades such as the Community Development Programme, Task Forces, Estate Action, City Challenge, Housing Action Areas, Renewal Schemes and Housing Action Trusts and the Single Regeneration Budget and New Deal for Communities.
As a result of these policies, many neighbourhoods have benefited from physical refurbishment and some have also benefited from improvements to their management and social conditions. Programmes have been improved in the light of successes and failures and more effort has gone into seeing how different problems – like crime and housing – link together. It has become conventional in implementing it, and that the best policies work though genuine partnerships. At the same time policy has become steadily more focused on outputs and explicit targets rather than inputs and processes.
The impact of area-based regeneration has been, however, at best patchy. Some of the reasons have to do with the impact of structural economic changes on towns and regions. Social changes such as the increase in lone parent households or the increasing availability and acceptability of illegal drugs have also had disproportionate effects in deprived areas. The importance of policy drivers has also been increasingly recognised, including badly designed programmes. A feature of this has been the limited level of analysis in both scheme development and evaluation including:
Balance of cause and effect Identified market, social and policy drivers The form and function of target areas and their future trajectory without intervention The appropriate spatial area for intervention (single neighbourhood or clusters, districts, cross-boundary, sub-regional etc) The relationship with and impact on adjacent areas (displacement) 5.5.8 Policy response: housing market restructuring
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Following the last large-scale clearance programmes of the 1950s and 60s, steps to restructure areas characterised by obsolete and unpopular housing stock was initially confined to the social housing sector, through the introduction of Estate Action resources for the most problematic social housing neighbourhoods. Wolverhampton, for example, had seven schemes from the late 1980s, with mixed levels of success.39
The enduring hallmark of Estate Action in the Black Country has been the removal of thousands of units, mainly flats/maisonettes. Entire estates have been removed through this and main programmes, especially in Sandwell which demolished 4,106 units in the 1990s alone.
In the Black Country a particular feature has been the:
Restructuring of the market through clearance and replacement housing, mainly by the private sector but also housing associations (RSLs) and through the investment activity of the Black Country Development Corporation (BCDC)
Development of new markets through the application of national RTB legislation and also affordable home ownership through s106 agreements and shared ownership mechanisms.
In Telford clearance has been far less important given the recent age profile of the stock, but in the South Telford estates the disposal policy of the Corporation through sales to tenants and also private landlords fundamentally transformed their profile.
The impact of RTB in a conurbation formerly so dominated by council housing transformed the tenure profile, as noted above. In many estates, especially those with the most popular traditional family houses, more than half the stock has now been sold. Paradoxically, as the wider employment market went into decline from the 1970s, government policy had stimulated through RTB activity a new housing market that previously had been defined solely through need as expressed through local authority tenancies.
The onset of right-to-buy sales from 1980 allowed a generation of working class people to buy their own homes. To date at least resale activity has been muted: many of these people are still living in the house they bought. Figure 5.37 shows sales levels as proportion of the private stock across the Black Country in 2003. The cold spots equate to many of the ex-council areas revealed by a comparison of the two tenure maps for 1981 and 2001.
As noted earlier in this Chapter, the CURS/CSR market studies in the Black Country found a strong degree of localised movement within large parts of the Black Country, particularly the 1930s estates, which are characterised by very limited inflow. Longer-term the concern is a pronounced cohort effect as these original purchases die off. There is the expectation that in these estates, turnover and void levels will rise over time.
39 Subsequent national evaluations indicate that in a number of urban areas, Estate Action ultimately diverted resources into estates containing high-cost and unpopular housing types that could not be ultimately sustained. Although many schemes included local economic development activities these were too narrowly based to address issues of the social and economic problems increasingly concentrated in these often highly stigmatised estates.
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Figure 5.37: Black Country Private Sector Transaction Rates
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5.0 NEIGHBOURHOOD ANALYSIS
This section presents the findings of a first-rung neighbourhood typology analysis for the Black Country Telford area. This has been based on an initial range of indicators - with some acknowledged weaknesses and deficiencies. Further work is needed to develop a wider range of indicators and to develop a fuller rationale for the inclusion or exclusion of indicators. This approach has been pursued in other areas where this approach to the development of a typology has been deployed.
5.1 Neighbourhoods and Housing Market Renewal
“A fundamental of Housing Market Renewal is that neighbourhoods are not the building block for Housing Market Renewal (as per neighbourhood renewal strategies, for example) but rather the end game. Cross-district, sub-regional drivers are the fundamental issue. Yet ultimately, it is at the level of neighbourhood that intervention is prioritised and the sequence of investment determined and operationalised.” North Staffordshire Housing Market Assessment, CSR 2004 page 61.
“It’s about why the people who live in these houses live in them.” Stakeholder Interviewee, North Staffordshire housing market assessment, CSR, 2004
There are clusters of neighbourhoods within the Black Country and Telford in which poverty is concentrated. Even though the Black Country is itself a declining, low- income conurbation it also demonstrates particular forms of social and economic polarisation that impacts on, and is in turn exacerbated by, the operation of the housing market. This is due to the ‘sorting effect’ of the residential housing market: a desirable area commands a price premium. Poorer households are clustered together in more affordable and invariably poorer quality locations40. Within the Black Country and Telford there are consequently areas very badly affected by limited opportunities for residents, poor housing and local environments.
So choice or the lack of it is an important aspect of defining function. There are a lot of factors at play in such ‘choices’, institutional, cultural and personal. This can relate to kinship ties, temporary situations such as being at university or the immediate exit route after relationship breakdown. Nevertheless identifying the characteristics of people who live there can reveal a great deal about the function of an area – and how it is changing.
It is possible to identify clusters of related neighbourhoods around which it may be helpful to develop a typology. This may be closely related to the existence of sub-markets, where issues of house type, tenure, condition and amenity and price combine with demographic and income issues to indicate some self-containment of clusters of neighbourhoods. Not surprisingly, some of these micro markets or neighbourhood typologies perform better than others.
Finally, it should be noted that the requirement of the Black Country and Telford HMR prospectus is not to identify the most deprived neighbourhoods, important though this it. Rather it is to understand the form, function and trajectory of its micro-markets to address the weakest markets. Additionally,
40 Prime Minister’s Strategy Office and ODPM (2005), Improving the Prospects of People Living in Areas of Multiple Deprivation in England, page 50.
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5.2 ‘At Risk’ Areas
The detailed identification of areas experiencing low or changing demand or broader market weakness, and the selection of areas for priority investment require the assembly and analysis of a full evidence base and the development of a coherent intervention strategy. However the 2004 work by CURS on the identification of the area of influence of the proposed Black Country-Telford HMRA also included a preliminary assessment of areas experiencing or at risk of experiencing these problems.
This work was based on a well-established methodology developed initially by CURS for the M62 Corridor Study and utilised by ODPM to assist in identifying the nine HMR Pathfinders in 2002-03. The original index was updated to take advantage of 2001 Census and other more recent information, for example on dwelling sale prices. The index uses indicators which take account of:
The age structure of the population, especially concentrations of older people; Patterns of economic activity, especially retirement and unemployment Concentrations of flats and terraced dwellings
This was supplemented by the inclusion of additional indicators to take fuller account of lack of diversity in the housing stock and the existence of non-traditional housing forms (such as high rise flats or Radburn-type layouts). The approach used is described more fully in the report of this study41.
Figure 6.1 shows areas identified as ‘at risk’ across the five local authorities using this approach. Each colour band represents a quarter of Census output areas (OAs) in the study area, with dark red representing the quartile at highest risk. Non-residential areas within at risk output areas have been screened out. All five boroughs have significant areas, which are at risk of low or changing demand or market weakness, but the overall pattern reveals:
An almost continuous zone extending north west from the existing Urban Living Pathfinder area through Tipton and Bilston and the core of the Black Country to Wolverhampton;
Other major concentrations of at risk housing in the inner core of Walsall, and in Dudley centre; and
Smaller and more scattered areas of housing at risk in Telford and in the Black Country boroughs outside the core areas.
41 Ed Ferrari and Philip Leather (2004) The Black Country and Telford Housing Market Research, CURS, University of Birmingham.
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Figure 6.1: Modified risk index, Black Country and Telford, 2004
SO U T H TE L F OR D
BL O X WI CH
WO LV E R H AM P T O N WA LS A L L
BI L ST O N FR I AR PK .
TI PT O N W. BR O M W I CH
DU D L E Y SM E T H W I CK Mo t o r w a y Local authority boundary BR I ER L Y Ex i s t i n g H M R A b o u n d a r y HI L L Mo d i f i e d r i sk i n d e x Li t t l e o r n o r i s k LY E HA L E S OW EN Hi gh e s t r i s k 0 2 4 6 8 10 Ki lo me t er s
Source: Ferrari and Leather (2004)
However no index can identify all the housing market problems evident at local level, so the results of this index were examined in detail by officers from each of the five local authorities to introduce an element of ground-truthing. This is consistent with the previous use of the index by ODPM. The result of this was to identify some additional isolated areas, together with extensions to the areas of risk identified by the index.
Even in the Urban Living area, the index does not highlight all neighbourhoods as experiencing problems of low or changing demand or market weakness. In this and other Pathfinders, the approach taken was been to identify an intervention area covering the main areas of market weakness together with associated areas, on the grounds that market weakness and associated problems can have an impact on neighbouring areas, or that interventions in these neighbouring areas can contribute to tackling problems in the areas which are worst affected. A similar approach was followed for the Black Country-Telford area, leading to the identification of two indicative intervention areas as shown in Figure 6.2.
The largest of these forms a cross shape covering parts of the four Black Country authorities, extending from the Black Country core area towards Wolverhampton, Walsall, Dudley and West Bromwich. This area includes a part of the existing Urban Living Pathfinder, which is contiguous with it. It would not, of course, be appropriate to include this directly within a Black Country-Telford HMRA, but Figure 6.2 shows the need to ensure that the activities of the proposed Black Country- Telford HMRA are closely coordinated with those of the Urban Living Pathfinder.
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The second area, which is not contiguous with the proposed Black Country intervention area, covers central and south Telford. The problems of this area relate specifically to deprived former new town estates with particular problems relating to their design and layout. Three existing Pathfinders have intervention areas which are fragmented in this way but which share common characteristics of market weakness.
Figure 6.2: Overview map of potential HMRA and main areas at risk.
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5.3 Neighbourhood Function and Trajectory
The brief for this project specified that additional analysis should be undertaken, going beyond the identification of ‘at risk’ areas, to establish a more detailed picture of neighbourhoods within the Black Country/Telford area and to anticipate their future direction of change or trajectory. It was recognised that this exercise would need to be to some extent exploratory, and based on existing readily available data sources, as the timescale for the project did not permit the assembly of new data based, for example, on administrative sources such as Council Tax or local authority housing records.
The approach used to this work, which was undertaken by CURS, was based on previous work undertaken for HMR Pathfinders in a number of other areas. This provided the benefit of being able to draw on past experience in the development of indicators and their analysis, and introduced a degree of consistency with similar exercises elsewhere. However, as with previous applications of this approach, the overall framework used has required considerable modification, in order to take account of available data sources, but more importantly in response to the particular characteristics of the Black Country Telford area.
The approach used involved the assembly of data on a range of indicators at small area level covering the whole of the four Black Country boroughs and Telford & Wrekin. The spatial unit used for this exercise was the 2001 Census Super Output Area. Data for each indicator used was standardised to produce a consistent range of values. Indicators were grouped into four domains (following the approach used in deprivation indices such as the []). These were based on experience with the development of neighbourhood typologies in other areas. The domains were:
. Housing market weakness: indicators directly measuring aspects of housing market weakness such as low house prices, low house price increases, high vacancy levels; the presence of unpopular dwelling types, and the concentration of these dwelling types; . Neighbourhood cohesion: indicators capturing the extent to which neighbourhoods are subject to change and instability, measured by indicators such as population movement, housing turnover, and crime levels; . Social exclusion and deprivation: indicators measuring deprivation, low incomes, service quality, and unemployment . Environment and access to services/employment: indicators measuring adverse features of environmental quality and ease of access to a range of key services, such as geographic barriers, travel times to key employment centres, and travel times to local services.
Previous applications of this approach have shown that there are many practical obstacles to obtaining data on a number of these indicators. Data from the 2001 Census has provided a (relatively) up to date source of information on a range of direct or proxy indicators on a consistent spatial basis at small area level, and this has formed the core of the analysis of neighbourhoods in this study. The main disadvantage of using Census based indicators is that the analysis cannot readily be updated and revised over time, in order to give some indication of the nature and rate of change. However, for the purposes of this study, which is intended to explore the case for a housing market renewal programme rather than to assemble a definitive evidence base, this was not a major disadvantage. A further disadvantage of the Census is that it is restricted in scope, and in particular does not provide data on
157 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 house prices, incomes, access to services, and environmental quality. It was therefore necessary to turn to other sources for data on these indicators.
As indicated above, it was not possible in the timescale for this study to assemble data from local administrative sources, although access was obtained to some already assembled administrative data. These sources would have provided wider and more up to date information on indicators such as housing vacancy levels, housing turnover and demand in the social rented sector, and benefit dependency. Past experience has shown that there can be problems both in securing access to this data and in aligning definitions and other data characteristics across local authorities. However this is a gap which future work should seek to fill.
Additional sources drawn on for data included the Land Registry, local crime data sources, the IMD 2004, DfES education data. Finally a number of indicators such as travel times and accessibility to post offices were developed for the purposes of this study from raw data sources.
5.3.1 6.3.1 Housing Market Weakness
This section looks at the picture provided by indicators of housing market weakness. This is the most directly relevant set of indicators (or domain) but it is important to set these results in the wider context provided by the cohesion, exclusion and environment/access domains. Figures 6.3 to 6.6 show indicators of housing market weakness across the Black Country Telford area and Figure 6.7 shows the housing market weakness domain score which combines these indicators.
Figure 6.3 shows the proportion of sales in each neighbourhood which are below the regional lower quartile threshold price for 2003. This draws on individual dwelling transactions data provided by GOWM (2004 data was not available at the time of writing). If prices were even across the region, it would be expected that 25% of transactions would fall below this threshold. However, as Figure 6.3 shows, much higher levels (61% or more) are widespread across the study area, covering most of the ‘at risk’ area identified above in Figure 6.2. In Telford & Wrekin a number of estates in south and north Telford are highlighted. This indicator clearly shows the widespread extent of low values across the Black Country and parts of Telford when set against regional norms which is one of the defining features of the market.
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Figure 6.3: Low value dwellings sales 2003
-+
Figure 6.4 shows price movements in the period since 2000. The picture here is less clear, as areas which have experienced relatively high percentage rises in prices include not just more peripheral neighbourhoods with high prices in 2003 but also scattered areas within the low price zones identified in the previous figure. Hence areas which have experienced relatively high price rises include central areas of Wolverhampton and Walsall, parts of West Bromwich, and areas within the Black Country core in between. As this indicator shows percentage change it may be that small absolute increases from a low 2000 price base appear more significant than they are in practice.
Figure 6.5 shows vacancy levels in 2001. The vacancy indicator in the 2001 Census was not tenure specific and this indicator should ideally be updated from local administrative sources to incorporate vacancy data by tenure as soon as possible. High vacancy levels such as those found in parts of Manchester-Salford and in East Lancashire are not a feature of the Black Country-Telford area (or of the existing Urban Living Pathfinder), but some neighbourhoods were found to have high vacancy rates in 2001. These were parts of the Urban Living area, especially Smethwick, inner Wolverhampton, including areas of private and social rented housing, parts of Bilston, Darlaston and Wednesbury, inner Walsall, and Brierley Hill in Dudley. There is a more general band of neighbourhoods with higher vacancy rates between West Bromwich and Wolverhampton through the Black Country core, following the same pattern as, but less extensive than, the area of core low dwelling values.
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Figure 6.4: Dwelling price change 2000-2003
Figure 6.5: Vacant properties, 2001
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Figure 6.6 shows the index of dwelling tenure/type homogeneity. This is a composite measure of lack of variety in terms of dwelling tenure and type, focusing on less popular dwelling types. The higher the score, the more homogenous the neighbourhood. This indicator produces a scattered pattern which does not highlight the core ‘at risk’ area. Neighbourhoods in Telford score highly on this indicator, but a wide range of neighbourhoods across the four Black Country boroughs also have homogenous housing.
Figure 6.7 shows the overall indicator of housing market weakness derived from these indicators. This may provide a better overall picture which discounts the impact of anomalies in the individual indicators described above. Figure 6.7 highlights a large area of market weakness in the study area. This includes inner Walsall and areas of social rented housing to the north of the centre along the A34, most of the inner area of Wolverhampton and areas running south east along the A41 through the core of the Black Country including Bilston, Coseley, Wednesbury, and on to West Bromwich and the existing Urban Living Pathfinder area. There is also a southwards extension running more intermittently through Tipton, Brierley Hill and into isolated areas such as Lye. The analysis also highlights parts of South Telford. Isolated areas in Telford & Wrekin outside Telford itself are also highlighted but these are anomalies deriving from the index of tenure/type homogeneity which should be discounted.
Overall, the housing market weakness analysis highlights an area which is very similar to that highlighted by the ‘at risk’ analysis above. But within this overall pattern, the inner areas of Wolverhampton and Walsall can be identified as significant problem areas, containing a mixture of former social rented estates (now increasing mixed tenure) and former private housing areas (now a mixture of owner occupation, private renting and some social renting). Around these areas the analysis also highlights other former local authority estates.
Beyond this, the key feature is what might be termed the disorganised nature of the pattern of market weakness. This reflects the historical pattern of Black Country settlement and the intermixture of older private housing areas of relatively poor quality and low value with local authority estates, many subject to increasingly high levels of tenure diversification through right to buy. Telford’s pattern of problems relates to the history of its development, with the weakest areas in housing market terms found in estates built to poor standards with layouts which have proved unattractive located by historical accident mainly in the south of the new town area where most early construction took place.
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Figure 6.6: Tenure/Dwelling Type Homogeneity Index
Figure 6.7: Housing Market Weakness Domain
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5.3.2 6.3.2 Neighbourhood Cohesion
This section looks at a number of indicators which aim to measure the extent to which neighbourhoods are failing to function in a cohesive way. The main direct indicators which were available for this domain related to migration (as a substitute for more detailed data from local administrative records on turnover) and to aspects of crime. Figures 6.8 to 6.11 show the results for individual indicators and the overall cohesion domain score.
There is a generally consistent picture across the whole of the four Black Country boroughs of population decline in the 2000-01 period, with a more mixed picture for Telford. Both crime indicators (Figures 6.9 and 6.10) show a similar picture with high levels of crime affecting most of the area of housing market weakness identified previously and lower levels outside this large core area in the more peripheral parts of the study area - especially on the western side of the Black Country boroughs.
Taken together these indicators produce a pattern of areas with low neighbourhood cohesion which is broadly similar to the housing market weakness domain, both in terms of the area of general coverage and covers most of the ‘at risk’ area and the smaller scale pattern within this which again highlights inner Wolverhampton and Walsall, West Bromwich and Tipton-Brierley hill. A larger area of Telford is highlighted which includes much of south and Central Telford but also Wellington and areas to the north of the town centre.
Figure 6.12 shows the distribution of BME households in 2001 across the study area. The majority of, although not all, areas with a high level of BME population fall into the low cohesion domain, but not all areas with low levels of neighbourhood cohesion have a high BME population.. Other research suggests that in some cases the presence of strong BME communities promotes social cohesiveness. It may therefore be worthwhile to concentrate on areas of low cohesiveness without the presence of a significant BME population as the most problematic in terms of this indicator. One of the major areas with low neighbourhood cohesion which lacks a significant BME population is Telford, but large parts of the Black Country core and areas between Wolverhampton and Walsall also fall into this category.
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Figure 6.8: Net in-migration 2001
Figure 6.9: Crime – violence against the person
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Figure 6.10: Crime – criminal damage Figure 6.11: Low neighbourhood cohesion domain
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Figure 6.12: BME population 2001
5.3.3 5.3.4 6.3.3 Social Exclusion and Deprivation
Figures 6.13 to 6.16 show indicators of social exclusion and deprivation and the overall social exclusion domain indicator.
Figure 6.13 shows the pattern of household incomes across the study area. This reveals a hollowed out pattern for the Black Country, the reverse of the housing market weakness domain, with low incomes in the central areas of Wolverhampton and Walsall and in the core of the Black Country, and higher incomes on the periphery. Telford shows a less organised pattern with some of the areas of market weakness in south Telford standing out as areas with concentrations of low income. Areas with improving schools follow a similar pattern.
Figure 6.15 showing unemployment reflects the reverse of the income/schools picture with strong concentrations in the core market weakness area. This produces a pattern of social exclusion and deprivation (Figure 6.16) which has some similarities to the housing market weakness domain. However as has been found in other areas where this domain has been developed, the social exclusion indicator tends to pick up areas, mainly of local authority housing, which form concentrations of deprivation but which do not particularly exhibit housing market weakness. This highlights areas in north Wolverhampton, and a more solid band of neighbourhoods across the Black Country central core in Bilston, Darlaston, Coseley and Wednesbury, where housing market weakness is more fragmented.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Figure 6.13: Average household incomes
Figure 6.14: Improving schools
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Figure 6.15: Unemployment
Figure 6.16: Social exclusion and deprivation domain
5.3.5
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
5.3.6 5.3.7 6.3.4 Environment and access to services
Figures 6.17 to 6.21 show indicators of environmental quality and access to services.
Figure 6.17 shows the impact of proximity to major roads as an indicator of pollution and noise. This affects a significant proportion of the Black Country central core because of the presence of motorways and major access roads which is compounded by the historic settlement patterns of the area and the scattered location of employment centres. Telford is less seriously affected.
Figure 6.18 shows the IMD 2004 sub-domain of geographical barriers which measures problems of access to key local services including post office, supermarket, primary school and GP. The pattern here is of greater problems for more peripheral parts of the Black Country boroughs and the most significant problems in Telford, where access problems are widespread.
The drive time to employment indicator (Figure 6.19) brings this out more clearly, with western parts of the Black Country boroughs and Telford most affected. It is clear from this that a single environment and access to services domain is not practicable, because it contains factors which work in opposite directions.
Environmental problems tend to be concentrated within the core areas of the Black Country, and to show some overlaps with housing market weakness, a lack of neighbourhood cohesion, and the presence of social exclusion. There is a need for the development of better or additional indicators in subsequent work to capture the impact of environmental problems on neighbourhoods.
Indicators relating to access problems tend to highlight peripheral areas, and the whole of Telford. These are relatively well developed and provide a clear picture of areas where access to services is more difficult. There is less overlap with the other domain indicators. This suggests that issues of access are heavily discounted by at least some households, except in Telford where the generally high overall level of access difficulty means that some social excluded households and areas of market weakness also face accessibility problems.
Figure 6.21 shows the housing barriers domain from the 2004 Index of Multiple Deprivation produced by the Neighbourhood Renewal Unit. This aims to measure barriers to housing and key local services. The indicators within it fall into two sub-domains: 'geographical barriers' (road distance to key services) and 'wider barriers' (overcrowding, homelessness and affordability). This also shows a less organised picture, perhaps reflecting the inclusion of both access and affordability problems (which would highlight more peripheral and affluent areas) and overcrowding.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Figure 6.17: Distance from busy polluting roads
FIGURE X.XX DISTANCE FROM NOISY POLLUTING ROADS
Figure 6.18 Geographic barriers
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Figure 6.19: Drive time employment accessibility index
Figure 6.20: Environment and access to services domain
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Figure 6.21: Housing barriers
5.3.8 5.3.9 5.3.10 6.3.5 Neighbourhood Typology
An overall analysis of the neighbourhood typology highlights:
a group of neighbourhoods mainly in peripheral locations in the Black Country boroughs and in north Telford which are the most sustainable in housing market terms - although they may well experience problems of accessibility to services;
a large number of areas which experience problems in relation to market weakness, social exclusion and neighbourhood cohesiveness - to varying degrees. This area corresponds to
the central ‘at risk’ zone in the Black Country - within which are a smaller number of neighbourhoods in Smethwick, central Wolverhampton and central Walsall, plus other smaller clusters, which experience these problems at the most severe level; and
the neighbourhoods of the south Telford New Town estates, where indicators of market weakness, social exclusion and neighbourhood cohesion are particularly pronounced.
6.4 Conclusions
This typology must be regarded as a first step rather than a final typology of neighbourhoods in the study area. This is because it is based on a partial range of indicators which have the weaknesses and deficiencies already described. Further work is needed to develop a wider range of indicators and to
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
develop a fuller rationale for the inclusion or exclusion of indicators. This approach has been pursued in other areas where this approach to the development of a typology has been deployed. Despite this, a useful overall picture of the nature of housing market renewal problems in the Black Country and Telford has been produced by this analysis.
It confirms that in the Black Country, there is a large central area of housing market weakness which extends from the existing Urban Living Pathfinder up to Wolverhampton through the Black Country core, together with another zone of weakness running from Walsall (including areas to the north of the centre) through the core and on to Brierley Hill and Lye in Dudley. This area suffers from low house values, a concentration of homogenous and relatively unattractive housing, poor environments, and high levels of deprivation.
At a finer grain, this large and at first uniform area breaks down into two main types of neighbourhood – former local authority estates, now often highly diversified in tenure, where there are questions of over future levels of demand and sustainability, not least because there are relatively few members of BME groups, who provide one of the main sources of future potential population growth) in these areas. Problems of sustainability are being or will in future be compounded by the resale of dwelling bought under right to buy into private renting.
Data presented elsewhere on educational attainment, incomes and the employment of residents in these areas shows that the process of selective out migration over the past three decades has already take its toll, leaving behind largely those with little choice who are unable to move elsewhere. Without intervention, the prognosis for these areas is of further slow decline, related to patterns of demographic structure, offset but not mitigated by the in migration of BME groups. Competition from areas elsewhere in the region with better employment opportunities and more attractive housing and environments is likely to ensure that those with choice continue to move out or do not come to live in the area. Relatively speaking, this may increase demand and prices in the more attractive parts of the Black Country boroughs.
The second type of neighbourhood contains private housing, often of low quality, occupied in some cases by households which need larger dwellings and in others by households who cannot afford maintenance and repair. In combination, these neighbourhoods present few or no opportunities for regeneration without intervention. The potential for gentrification is limited by dwelling types, by poor environments, and by the difficulty of access to services, brought about by the fragmented historical settlement pattern in the Black Country.
In Telford, the analysis has highlighted housing market weaknesses in a number of estates in south and north Telford including low values, incidence of vacant properties and lack of variety in terms of dwelling tenure and type. Telford’s pattern of housing market weakness is relates to the history of its development - with the weakest areas found in estates built to poor standards with layouts which have provide unattractive - located by historical accident mainly in the south of the new town area where most early construction took place.
Indicators of neighbourhood cohesion highlight problems of high incidence of crime and criminal damage in neighbourhoods in Telford - including the particular problem South Telford New Town estates where the incidence of crime is linked to the poor design of estates (Radburn layout). Overall
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the indicators show that low neighbourhood cohesion affects a larger area of Telford than housing market weakness - including much of south and central Telford, but also Wellington and areas to the north of the town centre. It is noted that Telford lacks significant BME population - with other research suggesting that the presence of strong BME communities can promote cohesiveness.
Indicators of social exclusion and deprivation shows that areas of market weakness in south Telford stand out as areas with concentrations of low income and high unemployment. Indicators of environmental quality and accessibility suggest problems of poor access to services, and employment facing estates in Telford - including south Telford estates. Consultation with local authority partners indicate that the extend of these issues need to be explored through further research.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
6.0 KEY POLICY AND INVESTMENT CONTEXT
This section presents a summary of the key policy and investment context to the proposed Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area. A full review is included at Annex B.
6.1 Introduction
Housing market renewal activity will require an integrated approach between different policy areas - including investment in neighbourhood renewal, economic development, transport provision, education and training, health and education. This section seeks to identify:
The key policy and investment context;
the extent to which the policy and investment context follows the grain of current market trends or seeks to alter them; and
any clear complementarities, gaps and inconsistencies.
Key elements and issues relating to the policy and investment context for the Black Country are as follows:
6.2 Regional Spatial Strategy
As regards the spatial development of the Black Country:
the West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) identifies a vision for an enhanced economic and social role for the Black Country as part of a more sustainable pattern of regional development based on a concentration of development on the region’s Major Urban Areas;
the new spatial development framework being developed and tested through the Black Country Study - to deliver the aspirations of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the Black Country and to offer a Partial Review of the RSS to be submitted to GOWM in March 2006 – is intended to offer a framework for major transformation of the conurbation including:
o economic development of the Black Country including the strategic development of key urban centres o development of a sustainable transport system o delivery of housing supply to meet current and future needs and demand o environmental improvements and improved urban design o improved key services and facilities and o community cohesion;
the proposed spatial development framework offers significant potential for a strategic and more integrated approach to the regeneration of the conurbation, and there is a need to ensure that the Black Country Study and work to develop the prospective HMRA complement one another. In
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particular the Black Country housing land capacity study will be of significant to the development of the proposed HMRA.
The Regional Spatial Strategy supports the continued development of Telford as a sub-regional focus for development - including housing development - on the basis of its potential to attract new investment and that new development meets locally generated needs (including the needs of surrounding rural areas) and is at a level to support balanced, sustainable communities. Telford’s development is to form part of a balanced network of town and city centres amongst the major shire towns and cities in the region- as a strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments.
6.3 Housing Development
As regards housing development in the Black Country:
RPG targets are for approximately 2,600 homes per annum to 2011 and 3,600 per annum 2001 to 2021 (see Table 7.1) – representing a 44% increase after 2011;
The greatest increase relates to the outer Boroughs to balance with the currently higher targets for Sandwell (reflecting the Borough’s greater land supply and current building rates);
Table 7.1: Annual Average Rate of Housing Provision (no. dwellings) To 2007 2007-2011 2011-2021 Dudley 600 700 975 Sandwell 900 900 975 Walsall 500 500 825 Wolverhampton 500 500 825 Black Country Total 2,500 2,600 3,600 Telford & Wrekin 1330 1330 700 Total 3,830 3,930 4,300
demographic analysis by Mott McDonald for the Black Country Study identifies that – based on current trends – meeting RPG targets for 2021 (involving 61,400 new dwellings and 16,200 demolitions) will require a significant shift in current levels of out-migration from the Black Country from a current outflow of 4,200 individuals per annum to a net inflow of 480 individuals per annum by 2021;
the planning pipeline for housing development at the 1st April, 2004 shows capacity for 9,022 dwellings across the Black Country and a high rate of annual completions – up to 1,958 in 2003.
As regards housing development in Telford:
RPG targets for new housing development in Telford & Wrekin beyond 2011 are reduced by 50% - in parallel with a 44% increase in target for housing development in the Black Country (see Table 7.1);
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The Borough has identified sufficient land supply to meet its RPG target to 2011 - with Telford is the focus for new housing development. However, a recent SWOT analysis undertaken as part of the development of an economic development strategy for the Borough (SQW, 2004) identified that at traditional densities, the available land supply could only accommodate some 50% of the required units - although the required number could be delivered if densities are raised in accordance with Government policy - to between 30 and 50 units per hectare.
6.4 Housing Policy and Investment
As regards the wider policy and investment context for housing provision:
the Regional Spatial Strategy identifies policy priorities as regards housing in the Black Country as being the development of higher quality housing to meet the demands of higher income households – alongside wider infrastructure improvements – and the market renewal of areas of low housing demand;
emerging priorities for housing being identified through the Black Country Study are the need for a bolder strategy for residential change based on delivering high quality residential environments around public transport nodes, strategic centres and sub-centres with strong canal/heritage assets; and quality mixed tenure housing with access to services;
key issues identified by the Black Country Study are the need to:
o identify locations that offer balanced opportunities for quality residential locations o establish a rolling programme of residential site allocations and land supply able to deliver sits of sufficient size and quality o delivery of demonstration projects to engage the private sector o to establish and monitor principles of quality design o to pursue RPG house-building rates on the basis of existing land allocations and evaluate opportunities to deliver and exceed minimum rates set out in RPG
the key challenge for the proposed HMRA will be to achieve a balance of supply and demand that achieves a higher proportion of higher income households in the Black Country at the same time as meeting the needs of the lower income households, and changing aspirations at the same time as delivering sustainable and cohesive communities;
the housing strategies of the Black Country authorities include as priorities the generation of greater choice, ensuring good stock condition, liveability improvements, improved housing services, affordability and community cohesion. However, understandably there are variations between the authorities (and with Telford) as regards the key issues for housing:
o Wolverhampton’s strategy prioritises ensuring good stock condition and delivering attractive neighbourhoods offering a good quality of life. The strategy identifies six housing areas based on groups of neighbourhoods defined according to price, type and tenure to assist the planning of investment. The strategy also identifies eight Urban Regeneration Areas identified for redevelopment and future investment to deliver sustainable communities. The
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ALMO (Wolverhampton Homes) has obtained £288m additional from 2006/07 (conditional on achievement of a 2* rating) to deliver the Decent Homes Standard (DHS) by 2010 - with the remaining investment required (£112m out of a total investment requirement of £400m) to be met from the Borough’s year on year mainstream capital investment programme. o Walsall’s housing strategy prioritises choice, brownfield development, affordability, stock quality including private sector renewal, community cohesion and improved housing services. The Council transferred to two RSLs in March 2003 - with the largest proportion going to Walsall Housing Group (WHG) - made up of five Housing Trusts managing 22,800 homes in five areas (Aldridge and Brownhills, Bloxwich, Central Walsall, Darlaston and Willenhall), and a smaller proportion to Walsall Association of Tenant Management Organisations (WATMOS) (a group of eight tenant management organisations managing 1,840 properties). WHG plans to spend £240m over seven years to 2010 on achieving the Decent Homes Standard - with a future role in developing community initiatives and a focus on asset management to fund the development of new homes. The spend profile for 05/06 for major works identifies a total planned spend of £49.7m - concentrated on the areas of Aldridge/Brownhills, Bloxwich, Central Walsall, Darlaston and Willenhall. o Sandwell’s priorities are to improve the quality of the residential environment; the range, quality and choice in the housing stock, achieving the Decent Homes Standard; addressing deprivation and improving housing services. The Borough identifies particular problems of low demand and low incomes leading to high levels of disrepair and low prices; and the importance of BME communities to sustaining levels of demand in the Borough. A key priority for the Borough is to reduce the number of unpopular property types by addressing the oversupply of social rented units (with a planned reduction in the total stock from £35k to £28,5k by 2010). The ALMO (Sandwell Homes) has had £349m provisionally approved on condition of achievement of its 2* rating to meet the Decent Homes Standard - with 74% of the stock not currently meeting the standard. It is hoped that this additional funding will be achieved in 2005/06. However, this level of resource will be insufficient to address the oversupply of social housing and the extent of private sector renewal required as identified in the HRA Business Plan, and the environmental improvements required alongside investment in the Decent Homes Standard. The Borough has made provision for the development of housing strategies for each of the six towns (Rowley Regis, West Bromwich, Smethwick, Tipton, Wednesbury and Oldbury) to cover local public and private housing markets, and action plans to address housing demand and conditions. o Dudley’s priorities are to meet the Decent Homes Standard, reduce the number of empty homes (with 27% of the Council’s stock currently below standard and a significant additional number of properties forecast to be after 2009, and 4.9% of the stock) and to increase the supply of affordable housing - especially social rented provision with a small proportion of shared ownership housing. The strategy also identifies a need to alleviate a shortage of larger family housing. The Council’s recent options appraisal has led to a decision to retain - with the housing strategy identifying a need for £398m of investment by 2010 to achieve the Decent Homes Standard and liveability improvements. o Telford and Wrekin’s particular priorities for housing are to ensure sufficient social and affordable housing, to support regeneration - particularly in south Telford - to improve the
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quality of housing, to promote choice and meet needs (e.g. of the homeless, for independent living and of vulnerable households). There are particular concerns about increasing levels of disrepair in the private sector - and particularly the long-term sustainability of private sector properties sold off through the Right-to-Buy on former Council estates. An estimated 2, 500 mostly private sector properties in the Borough are estimated to be in substantial disrepair, and around 5,000 private sector properties in substantial disrepair. The Business Plan of the Wrekin Housing Trust - established to take over 13,000 dwellings from the Council in 1999 - aims to meet the required repairs and improvement work which, prior to transfer, was estimated to be worth £41m. It is estimated that 35% of the stock will not meet the Decent Homes Standard at April 2006 and will cost between £31m and £51m to meet the standard. The Trust reports particular concern with the regeneration needs of the former New Town estates in south Telford - with parts of the estates demonstrating local housing market failure and high levels of property abandonment.
Table 7.2 presents the Capital Housing Allocations by HMRA authority. Table 7.3 presents levels of private sector investment by HMRA authority.
Table 7.2: Capital Housing Allocations by HMRA Authority (2003/04-2005/06) 2003-04 2004-5 2005-6 Housing Transitional Transitional Transitional Housing Annual Private Housing Private Housing Private Total Total Capital Total Capital Sector SCE(R) Sector SCE(R) Sector Grant1 Guideline Renewal Renewal Renewal Dudley 2,383 - 2,383 3,165 - 3,165 3,212 0 0 3,212 Sandwell 6,563 117 6,680 6,628 252 6,880 6,866 1,951 20 8,837 Telford & Wrekin 943 - 943 1,076 - 1,076 1,067 0 0 1,067 Walsall 4,060 - 4,060 3,714 - 3,714 3,671 0 0 3,671 Wolverhampton 4,788 - 4,788 6,806 - 6,806 7,473 0 0 7,473 Total 18,737 117 18,854 21,389 252 21,641 22,289 1,951 20 24,260
Table 7.3: Private Sector Investment Need to Spend Plans to Spend
Number of Estimated Number Number of Number of Cost of Amount of unfit Cost of of grants proposed proposed proposed loans made private making fit proposed loans by loans by grants available sector 2005/06 LA third 2005/06 2005/6 dwellings 2005/06 parties proposed 2005/06
Dudley 4,982 £28m 112 0 75 £1.1m £0.9m Telford & 1,200 £75m 125 10 30 £0.478m £0.030m Wrekin Sandwell 11,122 £75.2m 430 0 125 £2.747m £1.250m Walsall 4,364 £27.97m 250 0 0 £2.750m 0 Wolverhampton 6,644 £39.8 484 20 42 £1.060m £0.390m
6.5 Neighbourhood Renewal Activity
Planned neighbourhood renewal activity and investment in the proposed HMRA is as follows:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Wolverhampton - It is intended that 5% of £288m to be spent by the ALMO will be used for environmental and sustainability investments, and that the ALMO will seek to promote and deliver neighbourhood renewal activity. The City has a framework for neighbourhood renewal activity based on seven neighbourhood management pilots and All Saints and Blakenhall New Deal for Communities. The City’s total allocations for 2005/06 is £5.928M Neighbourhood Renewal Fund (NRF);
Walsall - the Borough identifies the main areas of deprivation in the Town Centres and to the west and north of the Borough, with nine priority neighbourhoods identified for neighbourhood renewal. The Borough’s neighbourhood renewal funding allocation for 2005/06 is £7.122M of NRF plus £52m of NDC funding for the NDC programme for Blakenhall, Bloxwich East and Leamore.
Sandwell - The Borough has the most widespread deprivation of all the Black Country authorities with neighbourhood renewal activity focused at the level of the six towns - via six neighbourhood management pilots. The Borough has the highest allocation of NRF at £13.773M for 05/06 plus an NDC allocation to the Greets Green NDC of £59.8m. The programme includes a planned £70m of housing investment including £14m of NDC funding and the rest made up of leverage.
Dudley - identifies 23 priority neighbourhoods for renewal activity, but has the lowest allocation of NRF at only £1.321M for 05/06 - although the Borough has estates with high levels of deprivation (e.g. The Priory, Kate’s Hill, Wren’s Nest).
Telford and Wrekin - has a policy of six priority neighbourhoods: Arleston College, Hadley, Donnington/Donnington Wood, Malinslee and Langley, Brookside, and Sutton Hill/Woodside. Work is being undertaken to identify small neighbourhoods within the current policy. The Woodside estate is the main focus for neighbourhood renewal activity as the most problematic of the four Radburn estates in South Telford. A seven year partnership programme involving the Borough, English Partnerships, the Housing Corporation, the Wrekin Housing Trust, AWM and GOWM worth around £73.5m of public sector investment (plus £100m private leverage) is identified for the area for stock acquisition, demolition and replacement; stock improvements to the Decent Homes Standard; and remodelling of the infrastructure and public realm. It is hoped that funding will become available through the HMRA to improve conditions in the remaining Radburn-designed South Telford estates: Brookside, South Hill and Malinslee. Telford and Wrekin is not an NRF-eligible authority.
Neighbourhood Renewal Fund allocations for each of the Black Country authorities are identified in Table 7.4. Table 7.5 presents the New Deal for Communities allocations for each of the Black Country New Deal for Communities programmes - and expenditure plans for housing renewal.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table 7.4: Neighbourhood Renewal Fund Allocations, Black Country authorities 2004/05 2006/07 Total Dudley 1.521 1.521 3.042 Sandwell 10.35 13.773 24.123 Walsall 5.928 5.928 11.856 Wolverhampton 7.122 7.122 14.244 Total 24.921 28.344 53.265
Table 7.5: NDC Allocations and Planned Expenditure on Housing Allocation Planned Budget to Timescale (£m) Housing (£m) NDC Leverage Total Sandwell (Greets Green) 56 14 56 70 2000-2010 (Round 1) Walsall (Bloxwich East and 52 2001-2011 (Round 2) Leamore) Wolverhampton (All Saints and 53.2 2001-2011 (Round 2) Blakenhall) Total: 161.2
6.6 Economic Strategy
As regards the economic development of the Black Country:
The Long-Term Economic Strategy to 203342 developed via the Black Country Study focuses on the development of higher value activities, higher level occupations and upskilling the workforce. Of particular significance to the proposed HMRA is the policy objective to deliver housing to meet the requirements of higher income households, as well as the impact of economic development policies on the income levels and housing aspirations of the wider population;
a key element of the economic strategy is the development of the role of key urban centres in the conurbation – with a vision of four strategic and distinctive centres (West Bromwich, Walsall, Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill). These will need to be balanced with the function of lower order centres as sources of local services and employment – particularly given the generally poor levels of access to services in the conurbation;
the Regional Economic Strategy and associated delivery mechanisms relating to the Black Country (the regional Cluster Action Plan, the Wolverhampton-Telford Technology Corridor and the North Black Country, South Staffordshire and South Black Country West Birmingham Regeneration Zones) offer significant capacity to deliver the economic development of the Black County (and Telford in the case of the High-Technology Corridor). However, key issues for the proposed HMRA will be:
42 GHK (2004) 'Lond-term Economic Strategy for the Black Country'
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 o the capacity of the regional and sub-regional policy framework to support the economic regeneration of the Black Country alongside other regional growth poles (particularly in the south east of the region and adjacent areas e.g. South Staffordshire and Cannock Chase); o how to manage the potential adjacency impacts of key regional sites in South Staffordshire on the Black Country; o the capacity of the Regeneration Zones to deliver the economic regeneration of the Black Country (and adjacent areas) with limited financial resources (a total of £43.1m between 05-08 for physical regeneration investment in the Zone areas).
As regards the economic development of Telford:
RPG identifies Telford as a strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments and the Borough’s own vision is to re-establish itself as a major sustained growth point with an expanded workforce of 110,000 individuals.
However, there is a need to further define and clarify Telford’s role in the wider regional and sub- regional context (identified in the URC - ‘Telford First - Business Plan). The recent SWOT analysis undertaken for the Borough43 identified that based on current trends, the Borough could achieve annual growth rates of 3.5% in output and 1.2% in employment by 2015, but that the Borough’s economy is vulnerable to trends in manufacturing and the basis of nearly half the Borough’s recent net jobs created estimated to be largely drive by the expansion of EDS. The study also identifies a major slow down in inward investment to the Borough - with the Borough struggling to retain competitive advantage despite the quality of its employment land supply.
However, the Wolverhampton-Telford High Technology Corridor, establishment of the Telford First Regeneration Company - focused on the redevelopment of the Town Centre - and the restructuring of Telford Development Agency offer a step change in co-ordinating capacity to deliver the Borough’s economic development strategy.
6.7 Transport Strategy
As regards transportation strategy for the Black Country - to be further developed through the Black Country spatial development framework:
the Regional Transport Strategy and West Midlands Local Transport Plan offer a policy framework for the sustainable development of the Black Country and the potential to contribute to improved access within the conurbation – building on the current Metro Line 1 – including reduction of conflicting land uses (e.g. through the development of new freight routes). Key issues for the HMRA – and the Black Country vision - will be:
43 SQW (2004) 'SWOT Analysis for Telford and the Wrekin Economic Strategy'
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
o the capacity of the regional and proposed conurbation to provide the infrastructure to improve the accessibility and quality of environment in the conurbation sufficient to attract growth sector employers and higher income workers; and o the impact of proposed improvements to infrastructure improvements on the edge of and beyond the conurbation (e.g. strategic park and ride and proposed M54-M6 link road) on sub- regional housing markets – including demand for higher income housing within the conurbation.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND PHASE 2 RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Conclusions
Because of its size, the HMRA contains many of the issues and problems being experienced by the nine Market Renewal Pathfinders (with the exception of private sector abandonment). Like Oldham- Rochdale and Birmingham-Sandwell it has a growing BME market which will require a public sector response to facilitate an appropriate match between supply and demand. The overall need to restructure the social rented sector has similarities to Merseyside and Greater Manchester. However the most striking example of similarity can be found by comparing the land use patterns, educational qualifications and incomes of those who reside in the core of the Black Country with the Market Renewal area in Stoke-on-Trent. Given these different characteristics it is likely that different models of interaction will need to be developed in different parts of the HMRA, over differing timescales.
7.1.1 Policy-Off Scenario
The Phase One study has highlighted those trends which are most likely to continue, and their implications for the area in the absence of any intervention (the ‘do-nothing’ option) as follows:
a likely continued decentralisation of population from the Black Country core which will not be mitigated by BME household growth or international migration, with the north of the Black Country projected to lose most population. Future projections based on current trends suggest that the Black Country could lose a further 24,600 people (a 2.3% population decline) before 2011 with further significant losses in the following two decades. This continued out-migration is likely to increase pressure on the Black Country hinterland, particularly to the north, and bring additional public sector costs to the core as a result of increasing concentrations of deprivation, reductions in economies of scale in service provision and additional requirements for neighbourhood management and policing in areas with high turnover and vacancies;
a concentration of demographic growth amongst BME communities - in the Black Country in particular. Whilst some communities are migrating out of traditional inner-city locations, other groups remain concentrated in older terraced neighbourhoods where houses are often unfit and over-crowding occurs. Over the next decade this stock will no longer offer units of sufficient size to satisfy the demand for larger homes for low-cost owner-occupation. An increasing supply of affordable housing of the right size will need to be provided to prevent increasing over-crowding and issues around social cohesion;
increasing social polarisation and exclusion of communities in both the Black Country and Telford as continuing manufacturing decline leads to continued concentrations of high unemployment, under-employment and low income households - with those with choice in the housing market moving out. Housing market restructuring will be needed to facilitate the development of socially-balanced and sustainable communities with the income to sustain local facilities;
a progressive decline in the urban form - particularly in the Black Country - as manufacturing decline leads to factory closure. This could be extensive enough to result in a collapse in the
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
urban form on the scale that has been a driver of housing abandonment in Manchester/Salford and Stoke-on-Trent;
a problematic longer-term future for the south Telford estates which are identified in the Borough’s housing strategy as having become increasingly difficult to manage - with serious and complex issues of decline, including heavy stigma within Telford. The problems of these estates are such that a clearance programme on the New Town estates has started for the first time - with approximately 240 units being cleared in Woodside.
In addition to these likely negative trends, there are a number of public policy issues which will emerge as a result of a ‘do-nothing’ option:
Regional Planning Guidance - RPG has an aspiration for the major urban areas to capture 100% of household growth by the end of the planning period. The regeneration of the Black Country is key to the region attaining this goal given its size, current migration performance and urban capacity;
Viability of stock transfer organisations - Both Telford and Wrekin and Walsall have transferred their public sector housing stock to registered social landlords. These RSLs will need to be supported by a sympathetic public policy framework if they are to flourish in markets which are transitory; and
Economic development - The ‘Long-term Economic Strategy’ developed for the Black Country44 has noted that a ‘do-nothing’ option for the local economy would result in average earnings falling from 81% to the national average of 76% by 2030. Poor economic performance will lead to accelerated decline and a concentration of deprivation. This is a downward cycle which would eventually become a drain on national public sector welfare and renewal programmes.
7.2 Phase 2 Recommendations - Knowledge Gaps
Phase Two will build on this study to develop a Housing Market Renewal Prospectus for the Black Country Telford area. This will involve the specification of a housing market renewal intervention area, more detailed analysis of drivers affecting changing demand in this into the development of proposals for housing-led investment, and the identification of wider policy interventions to complement housing investment and create sustainable neighbourhoods. It will be important that Phase Two moves from the research base established in Phase One to being a research and development programme. Some of the key knowledge gaps and questions that will need to be addressed in Phase Two include:
1. The long-term impact of the Right-to-Buy, in relation to demographic change, age and stock condition. The Right-to-Buy, along with clearance policies, has led to a total tenure transformation of municipal estates in the Black Country and Telford. Increased levels of private ownership (owner-occupation and private-renting), combined with income deprivation, deregulation of private sector rents and demographic ageing threaten the condition of the privately-owned stock and increase the risk of low demand as properties originally purchased
44 GHK (2004) ‘Black Country Study: Long-Term Economic Strategy for the Black Country’
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
through the Right-to-Buy come onto the market for the first time. This scenario requires further exploration;
2. The quality of available land, and its likely future supply (including the projected rate of change from employment to housing use). The West Midlands RPG Panel (October 2002) expressed concerns about the ability of the Black Country to meet RPG targets. (51% of the housing land supply is on unidentified sites - the majority of which are windfall sites). The Panel identified the need for a more site-specific urban capacity study. This is being undertaken as part of the Black Country Study;
3. The sequencing of development and regeneration activity, including the balance between peripheral and inner area activity. A key issue for the Black Country will be how to balance the urban renaissance and growth agendas. This will depend on an appropriate sequencing of intervention to deliver growth. There is a need to protect suburban areas also which are at risk of decline as well as focusing on inner declining areas;
4. Demographic change in sub-areas within the Black Country and its potential impact on future supply and demand. Initial neighbourhood-level analysis has been undertaken in Phase One to identify the trajectory of neighbourhoods in the Black Country and Telford. Further work is required to refine this analysis in Phase Two. This should include work to identify the potential impact of demographic change and other social trends on future housing market supply and demand at the neighbourhood level;
5. Understanding the aspirations of BME communities and young people as key sources of future housing demand. The area has a growing BME population whose needs require measures to facilitate an appropriate match between supply and demand. The Phase One research has identified the distribution and significance of BME communities across the area. However, further work is required to understand the aspirations of different BME communities (current and potential) and their impact of this on housing market change at the neighbourhood level. Similarly, young people - particularly amongst BME communities - represent future housing market demand and understanding their housing aspirations and needs will be a key consideration.
6. The relationship between future economic restructuring and the supply of land. Industrial closures will need to be accommodated within a policy framework which addresses potential collapses in urban form and function. A key issue for the Black Country will be creating environments of sufficient quality to attract investment. Many of the larger sites able to create their environment have already been developed;
7. The relationship between economic change, educational qualifications, household income and affordability. This will assist in estimating future affordable housing provision;
8. How can South Telford’s regeneration be linked more effectively with the sub-regional economy? The policy review undertaken in Phase One identified that whilst the Regional Spatial Strategy supports the continued development of Telford as a sub-regional focus for development, RPG does not clearly define the function and role of Telford in the region. Telford demonstrates significant potential for economic and housing growth - including land capacity, environmental
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
quality and organisational capacity. A key issue for the area will be how to manage Telford’s potential for economic and housing growth for the benefit of the sub-region as a whole. More detailed analysis to build on a recent SWOT analysis of the Telford economy45 is required to understand the potential of Telford as a driver of economic growth in the area;
9. To what extent will it be possible to secure consent to restructure the large band of council estates which form a North/South, East/West axis at the centre of the Black Country conurbation? What types of interventions will be required and over what time scales? What implications do changing patterns of ownership, both through the Right-to-Buy and restructuring within the social-rented sector, have for the capacity to implement difficult strategic decisions on the future of these areas; and
10. How can Black Country housing markets best be reconfigured to reflect needs and opportunities? In particular, to what extent should economic, activity and housing be decentralised away from the challenging core area?
ANNEX A:
BLACK COUNTRY HOUSEHOLD GROWTH SCENARIOS
45 SQW (February 2004) ‘Telford and Wrekin Economic Development Strategy: SWOT Analysis’
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Annex A: Black Country Household Growth Scenarios
This section presents the household growth scenarios developed and tested as part of the Black Country Study (Mott MacDonald, 200446) using the ‘Chelmer Population and Household Model’ (CPHM).
Scenario 1: The existing trend line with continuing outward migration
This is the policy off scenario, that is in the absence of RPG/Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) policies to reduce population decentralisation by containing household growth and house building within the conurbation.
This scenario that assumes the continuation throughout the period 2001-2031 of average migration flows experience over the period 1999-2002 (a loss of 4,200 per annum).
Taking account of births and deaths this continuation of a net migration loss of 4200 persons per annum for the four Black Country districts as a whole results in a reduction in population of 84,500 persons over the period 2001-2031 accompanied by a net loss of 2,400 households.
This scenario forecast shows the following population and household totals and changes for each district.
Table 5.10: Black Country Study: Scenario 1 Population Projection (000s) Population Population Change 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Dudley 305 291 -1.8 -4.2 -7.3 Sandwell 285 263 -8.9 -6.2 -6.5 Walsall 253 235 -4.1 -6.2 -8.1 Wolverhampton 238 207 -9.8 -10.0 -11.4 Black Country 1,081 997 -24.6 -26.5 -33.4 Cumulative position - - -24.6 -51.1 -84.5
Table 5.11: Black Country Study: Scenario 1 Household Projection (000s) Households Household Change 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Dudley 125 132 +4.3 +3.9 -1.1 Sandwell 115 114 -1.4 +0.8 -1.2 Walsall 101 101 +0.6 +0.5 -1.9 Wolverhampton 97 90 -1.8 -2.1 -3.2 Black Country 439 436 +1.7 +3.2 -7.3 Cumulative position - - +1.7 +4.9 -2.4
46 Black Country Study: Population and Household Scenario Forecasts 2011-2031, Graham Smith, Mott MacDonald, October 2004.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
For the Black Country as a whole although the continuation of current trends in migration results in significant losses in population over the two ten year periods to 2021 there is still an increase in households and a consequent requirement for an increase in dwelling stock. In the ten-year period from 2021 to 2031 the continuing loss of population results in an absolute loss of households resulting in higher vacancy rates and/or reduction of the housing stock through clearance.
Scenario 2: Meeting of RPG housing targets to 2021 with zero net migration after 2021
This scenario assumes that the levels of house building and demolitions used for RPG policy are achieved over the period 2001-2021 and that over the period 2021 to 2031 that zero net migration takes place for each district.
This results in a population increase of 90,000 persons, a growth in households of 58,800 and implies a net inward average migration level of 480 persons per annum over the period, a significant change to current migration trends.
The actual RPG assumptions are as follows for each district
Table 5.12: Black Country Study: Scenario 2 Completions and Demolitions 2001-2011 2011-2021 Completions Demolitions Completions Demolitions Dudley 6,400 1,100 9,750 1,500 Sandwell 9,000 5,600 9,750 3,900 Walsall 5,000 500 8,250 1,000 Wolverhampton 5,000 1,100 8,250 1,500 Black Country 25,400 8,300 36,000 7,900
For the Black Country as a whole RPG expects 61,400 new dwellings to be completed along with 16,200 demolitions, a net increase in dwelling stock of 45,200 dwellings over the period 2001-2021.
The CPHM operation then uses these completions and demolitions as input controls and migration becomes an output. On this basis, in the first ten-year period migration levels represent on average a small net outflow from the Black Country as a whole (-150 pa), a significant reduction from current trends of over 4,000 persons per annum. In the second ten-year period the migration flow reverses from the historic outward migration flow to a net inward flow of migration of some 1600 persons per annum, a significant step change.
This scenario forecast shows the resulting population and household totals and changes for the Black Country.
Table 5.13: Black Country Study: Scenario 2 Population Projection Population Population Change 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Black Country 1081.1 1171.3 +18.5 +42.9 +28.9 Cumulative position - - +18.5 +61.4 +90.3
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table 5.14: Black Country Study: Scenario 2 Household Projections Households Household Change 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Black Country 438.8 497.6 +16.6 +27.1 +15.1 Cumulative position - - +16.6 +43.7 +58.8
The planned increase in households in the Black Country implicit in RPG policy is some 2,300 per annum over the period 2001-2021. The scenario of a balance of inward and outward migration in then period 2021-2031 therefore results in a household increase of 1,500 per annum. The total increase in households over the whole period is 58,800 households accompanied by a population increase of 90,300 persons. This scenario can only be sustained by a significant shift in current outward migration to a position of net inward migration
Scenario 3: The continuation of RPG house-building and clearance rates (2011 to 2021) through to 2031
This scenario assumes for each district that RPG housing targets are fully met up to the end of 2021 as with scenario 2, but that the same building and clearance rates for 2011-2021 are carried forward to the period 2021-2031.
As in the previous scenario migration becomes an output of the CPHM. For the first two ten year periods the migration flows are the same as the scenario above i.e. a reversal of current migration trends, but in the period 2021-2031 the net inward migration flow required to sustain this level of house building increases to 3,200 per annum as compared to a current net outward migration flow of 4,200 persons per annum.
This scenario forecast shows the following population and household totals and changes for each district.
Table 5.15: Black Country Study: Scenario 3 Population Projection (000’s) Population Population Change 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Black Country 1081.1 1,205.8 +18.5 +42.9 +63.4 Cumulative position - - +18.5 +61.4 +124.8
Table 5.16: Black Country Study: Scenario 3 Household Projections (000’s) Households Household Change 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Black Country 438.8 509.7 +16.6 +27.1 +27.1 Cumulative position - - +16.6 +43.7 +70.8
Under this scenario the planned increase in households of 2,700 per annum over the period 2011-2021 is carried forward through to 2031. This scenario implies an accelerating population growth reaching 6,300 per annum in the final ten-year period. Over the 30-year period there is a population increase of
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
nearly 125,000 sustained by what would be high levels of net inward migration as compared to trends over the last twenty years. There is a household growth of 70,800
Scenario 4: assumes the RPG level of house-building to 2021 and a 15% increase in total households over the period to 2031
This scenario assumes for each district that RPG are fully met up to the end of 2021 as with the previous scenarios but that an increase in households of 15 percent of the total number of households takes place between 2021 and 2031.
As in the previous scenarios migration becomes an output of the CPHM. For the first two ten year periods the migration flows are the same as the scenario above i.e. a reversal of current migration trends, but in the period 2021-2031 the net inward migration flow required to sustain this level of household growth increases to 15,500 per annum as compared to a current net outward migration flow of 4,200 persons per annum. Clearly this represents an extremely ambitious housing growth scenario.
Under this scenario the planned increase in households of 2,700 per annum over the period 2011-2021 is accelerated to over 7,000 per annum over the period 2021 to 2031. This scenario implies an accelerating population growth reaching over 19,000 per annum in the final ten-year period. Over the 30-year period there is a population increase of nearly 250,000 sustained by what would be extremely high levels of net inward migration.
Age and household structure in the Black Country
Within the overall population and household changes described above there are also significant changes in the age structure of the population and also the types of households. The overall direction of these changes is common to all three scenarios but the scale of change does vary significantly for different age group and household types between the scenarios.
All three scenario forecasts show the over 60’s age group increasing significantly as the peak in births in the post war years rolls through and as life expectancy continues to increase. The table below shows the broad age structure of the population at 2001 and 2031 for the migration trend scenario and the RPG continuing to 2031 scenario.
The CPHM allows changes in household types to be forecast including the age of the head of the household. In all scenario forecasts there is a reduction in married couple households overall but with increases in married couple households above retirement age. All three forecasts show significant increases in one-person households in all broad age groups but especially in the retirement age groups. There are also increases in other multi-person households i.e. non-married couples, non- family related people sharing. Changes in married couple households by age of head of household are shown below for the trend based forecast and the RPG continuing forecast.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table 5.17: Change in age structure of the population 2001-2031 (000’s) Age Group 2001 2031 Change 2001-2031 Base Population Scenarios Scenarios 1 3 1 3 0-14 212 180 235 -33 +23 15-29 198 180 231 -18 +33 30-44 238 179 233 -59 -5 45-59 198 160 193 -37 -5 60-74 154 190 200 +35 +46 75+ 81 108 113 +27 +33 TOTAL 1081 997 1206 -85 +125
Telford Projections
For this study Mott MacDonald were commissioned to apply the CPHM model to Telford and Wrekin district. The existing trend line (equivalent to the BCS scenario 1) is shown in the table below:
Table 5.18: Telford Population Projections (Equivalent to BCS Scenario 1) Population Population Change (000’s) 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Telford & Wrekin 158.7 204.6 +12.9 +17.0 +16.0 Cumulative position - - +12.9 +31.4 +45.9
Table 5.19: Telford Household Projections (Equivalent to BCS Scenario 1) Households Household Change (000’s) 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Telford & Wrekin 63.8 88.3 +9.3 +9.6 +5.6 Cumulative position - - +9.3 +18.9 +24.5
This scenario that assumes the continuation throughout the period 2001-2031 of average migration flows experienced over the period 1999-2002 (a gain of 700 per annum). This inflow contributes to an increase in population of 45,900 persons over the period 2001-2031 accompanied by a gain of 24,500 households.
The table below outlines the position based on the extension of RPG policy to 2031 (i.e. it is equivalent to the BCS scenario 2).
Table 5.20: Telford Population Projections (Equivalent to BCS Scenario 2) Population Population Change (000’s) 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Telford & Wrekin 158.7 208.2 +22.7 +8.7 +18.0 Cumulative position - - +22.7 +3104 +49.5
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table 5.21: Telford Household Projections (Equivalent to BCS Scenario 2) Households Household Change (000’s) 2001 2031 2001-2011 2011-2021 2021-2031 Telford & Wrekin 63.8 90. +12.9 +6.8 +6.8 Cumulative position - - +12.9 +19.7 +26.5
For Telford & Wrekin, RPG expects 20,300 new dwellings to be completed along with 100 demolitions over the period 2001-2021.
For the first ten year period an increase in migration is required from the current 700 to 1626 pa, but in the period 2011-2021 a net outflow is required of 421, before returning to an inflow of 949 per annum to sustain this level of house building in the later 2021-2031 period.
ANNEX B:
POLICY AND INVESTMENT CONTEXT
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
ANNEX B: POLICY AND INVESTMENT CONTEXT
This section presents a summary analysis of the key policy and investment context to the proposed Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - at the regional, sub-regional and local authority level as follows:
At the regional level: the Regional Spatial Strategy, the Regional Housing Strategy, the Regional Economic Strategy and the Regional Transport Strategy;
At the sub-regional level: the Black Country Study and emerging Spatial Development Framework; the Wolverhampton-Telford High Technology Corridor; the two Regeneration Zones which incorporate the north and south Black Country; and the Birmingham-Sandwell Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder (‘Urban Living’); and
At the local level - for each of the five local authorities: their Housing Strategies, Housing Investment Programmes (HIP); ALMO Delivery Plans or Stock Transfer RSL investment plans; neighbourhood renewal activity; housing land supply, economic development strategy, urban form and transport
1.0 Regional Policy Context 7.2.1 7.2.2 1.1 Regional Spatial Strategy and Regional Planning Guidance (RPG 11) The West Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy set out in Regional Planning Guidance for the West Midlands (RPG 11) seeks a ‘fundamental change of direction’ in order to achieve a more sustainable pattern of development in the region. Central to this is the concentration of development on the region’s Major Urban Areas - with a shift away from recent market trends of peripheral development and decentralisation.
1.1.1 The Black Country The Regional Spatial Strategy identifies a vision for the Black Country (and other Major Urban Areas in the region) to develop an enhanced economic and social role in the region through:
Concentration of new housing development in the Black Country/Birmingham conurbation market renewal of areas of low housing demand - including Sandwell. improvements to the quality of the urban environment, creation of employment opportunities creation of a balanced network of vibrant and vital town centres as the strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments improvements to transport networks
The Black Country (and other Major Urban Areas in the region) is expected to generate a range of housing types and sizes that are attractive to economically independent households - including high density, high quality developments. RPG offers a framework for integrating housing policy objectives with other non-housing objectives to:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
restructure land use and transport networks to create employment growth, create new residential environments and improve environmental quality, integrate transport plans and join up centres deliver environmental improvements maximise the use of the existing housing and business stock where economically and socially viable raise the quality of urban design rejuvenate urban centres increase accessibility
These policies highlight the key challenges that the Black Country will face in delivering the urban renaissance envisaged in the Regional Spatial Strategy including:
weak housing markets poor quality housing sites poor quality and lack of choice in affordable housing the quality of the urban environment poor transport accessibility the poor image of the Black Country as a place to live, work and invest the quality of local centres and their ability to attract investment the quality of employment offer and levels of employment
The central issue for delivering housing market renewal in the Black Country will therefore be the capacity to balance multiple policy objectives relating to housing, employment, accessibility urban quality and local services and facilities. A concerted effort will be required to manage land use and deliver regeneration - involving a significant change in the level of investment in the sub-region.
1.1.2 Telford The Spatial Strategy supports the continued development of Telford as a sub-regional focus for development - including housing development - on the basis of its potential to attract new investment and that new development meets locally generated needs (including the needs of surrounding rural areas) and is at a level to support balanced, sustainable communities.
However, RPG targets for new housing development in Telford beyond 2011 are reduced by 50% - in parallel with a 44% increase in target for housing development in the Black Country.
Telford’s development is to form part of a balanced network of town and city centres amongst the major shire towns and cities in the region- as a strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments. Although RPG does not go so far as to clearly define the function and role of Telford in the region - an area of clarification required according to the Telford Urban Regeneration Company (Telford First).
RPG policies for Telford (and other centres outside the Major Urban Areas) are focused on maintaining and enhancing the town’s regional function and role through policy intervention to:
maintain and enhance the pattern of centres development of strategies to enhance their role in servicing their local communities
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
promoting a sense of identity creating opportunities for the development of economic opportunities and other services encouraging people to live in or close to centres ensuring high standards of design enhancing centres as the primary nodes of the public transport network
1.1.3 Housing As regards housing provision, West Midlands Regional Planning Guidance (RPG 11) policy objectives require the creation of a variety and choice of good quality housing based on:
enhanced renovation of the existing stock increased rates of redevelopment of the existing stock an increase in the scale and range of new housing development opportunities in appropriate locations (with high replacement ratios for cleared housing stock and a significant increase in overall housing densities) the creation of attractive urban communities and living environments by mixing housing types, tenures and densities provision of affordable social and low-cost market housing
RPG targets for new housing development47 represent a major redistribution of new housing development to the Major Urban Areas from the major shire towns and cities outside the Major Urban Areas - from 2011 (see Table B.1) and set targets for new housing development on brownfield land to restrict new housing development on peripheral sites (see Table B.2).
From 2011, annual targets for new housing development in Telford are reduced by nearly 50% and targets for the Black Country are increased by 44% (see Table B.1).
The greatest increase in targets in the Black Country relates to the outer Boroughs (Dudley, Wolverhampton and Walsall) - to create a greater balance with Sandwell’s targets which are currently higher. Dudley has the highest increase in targets at more than 50% of the current targets.
Table B.1: Annual Average Rate of Housing Provision (no. dwellings) To 2007 2007-2011 2011-2021 Dudley 600 700 975 Sandwell 900 900 975 Walsall 500 500 825 Wolverhampton 500 500 825 Black Country Total 2,500 2,600 3,600 Telford & Wrekin 1330 1330 700 Total 3,830 3,930 4,300 Source: RPG 11
47 Based on assumptions regarding vacancy and clearance rates
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table B.2: % Housing Development on Previously Developed Land 2001-2011 Dudley 98 Sandwell 100 Telford & Wrekin 53 Walsall 79 Wolverhampton 99 Source: RPG 11
It should be noted that the redistribution of housing land provision towards the Black Country and other Major Urban Areas from other settlements such as Telford will take place gradually - with the main redistribution occurring beyond 2011. Furthermore, a time-lag is likely before current housing land supply with planning permissions moves through the system and the redistribution of provision takes effect.
Wolverhampton, Walsall and Dudley’s UDPs identify sufficient housing land supply to meet RPG requirements to 2011 (Table B.3). Sandwell identifies a shortfall of land supply of 823. However, the West Midlands RPG Panel (October 2002) set out concerns about the ability of the Black Country to meet RPG targets. (51% of the housing land supply is on unidentified sites - the majority of which are windfall sites. The Panel identified that insufficient information is available to offer precise figures for a reduction in targets post 2011 and the need to produce a more site-specific urban capacity study. This study is being undertaken as part of a wider housing study as part of the Black Country study.
Telford & Wrekin has identified sufficient land supply to meet its RPG target to 2011 - with a shortfall for 400 homes identified in the 1995 Annual Land Statement to be partly met in Telford (160 homes) in the ‘East Ketley’ comprehensive regeneration area in the northern part of the Telford (a 34- hectare redevelopment scheme). This regeneration area is located in an identified ‘corridor of concentrated demand’ for public transport in northern Telford.
Table B.3: Housing Land Supply Housing Land Supply Black Country Telford & Wrekin Sandwell Wolverhampton Walsall 1998-2011 Dudley Total 1989-2006 RPG11 Allocation (1991-2011) 11,695 10,673 23,720 12,950 59,038 17,752 Supply 1991-2003 8,395 5,969 6,285 6,398 27,047 6,138 Remaining Requirement 2002-2011 3,300 4,131 17,435 6,552 31,418 11,614
Supply (Current Plan) Identified sites Housing Allocations 1,573 1,706 9,574 1,400 14,253 9,909 Renewal Sites 234 1,128 1,362
Unidentified Sites 0 Renewal Sites 887 250 1,137 Windfalls 945 1,350 6,683 2,792 11,770 1,705 Other 319 270 355 3,047 3,991 16,898 Total Supply 2003-2011 3,958 4,704 16,612 7,239 32,513 11,614 Difference with requirement 658 573 -823 -687 -279 0 Source: Local Authority data provided
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
1.1.4 Location of Housing Land Supply RPG seeks to restrict housing development on peripheral sites. This is reflected in the emerging vision for the Black Country being developed through the Black Country Study which envisages high quality, high density residential areas located around public transport nodes and the urban centres in the Black Country. The Black Country authorities UDP policies also largely support this vision of central housing development.
Wolverhampton and Dudley’s land allocations for housing can be seen to be concentrated around the Borough’s town centres - with a quarter of total housing capacity in Wolverhampton’s housing capacity located in/around the City Centre. Dudley has also identified phased housing land release which is targeted on the Borough’s town centres and other brownfield sites.
Sandwell’s housing sites are more scattered with some concentrations around Tipton, Wednesbury, Smethwick/Cape Hill and the metro corridor. A key issue for the Borough is the condition of housing sites and the quality of environment considering the conflicting land uses in the Borough.
However, Walsall’s housing land supply includes greenfield sites - three of which are additional to the 1995 plan (Clayhanger, Berryfields, Aldridge and Rushall).
Telford is the focus for new housing development in Telford & Wrekin and offers a large number of housing sites in and around the town. A significant proportion of additional housing land capacity identified is located within an identified ‘corridor of concentrated demand’ in northern Telford - including the East Ketley regeneration area.
7.2.3 1.2 Regional Housing Strategy The overall aim of the Regional Housing Strategy is to develop a pattern of housing investment that meets the needs and aspirations of the region’s population, at the same time as supporting the delivery of the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies. The Strategy therefore aims to develop patterns of housing provision that stem patterns of out-migration from the older urban centres, contribute to urban and rural renaissance, protect and enhance the environment, and support economic development.
Eight priority investment themes are identified for the region:
1. Urban renaissance 2. Rural renaissance 3. Low demand and restructuring of housing markets 4. affordability 5. poor house condition issues 6. community cohesion and meeting black and ethnic minority housing needs 7. the supporting people agenda 8. issues relating to asylum seekers and refugees
Investment targets are also identify for priority investment areas - particularly the Central housing markets (centred on the Black Country, Birmingham and Coventry), the North Staffordshire housing markets - and also former coalfields’ communities and remoter rural parts of the region. Housing Investment Plans are to be developed for each of these priority investment areas.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The proposed Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area would form part of the ‘Central’ housing market area - which centres on the Black Country, Birmingham and Coventry and the areas most directly influenced by these markets running west and east (including the high price commuter belt and adjacent rural areas). Telford is identified as a priority within the rural areas to the west and south of the Black Country where priorities are to meet the needs of low income households (through social housing provision) and address poor housing conditions. Key issue identified for the Black Country are to deliver an urban renaissance, respond to low demand, raising the quality of affordable housing, housing market renewal and meeting the needs of BME communities, asylum seekers and refugees.
Further research and strategy development is to be undertaken in key issues areas relating to housing provision in the region (e.g. the potential impact of the Milton Keynes growth area). There is also an identified need to develop the evidence base on the region’s housing markets and how they can be influenced to deliver sustainable communities. Priority areas identified are: regional and sub-regional patterns; links between housing, labour markets and economic policy; migration patterns; asylum seekers; house price change; Section 106 agreements; the impact of the Right to Buy; the impact of other regions’ developments; private stock; and a joined up approaches to housing needs studies.
1.2.1 Regional Housing Board Allocations The Regional Housing Board’s allocations for housing capital resources through the new single regional housing pot (SRHP) for the HMA authorities for 2004/05 and 2005/06 are presented in Table B.4. This includes a comparison with allocations in 2003/04.
Table B.4: Capital Housing Allocations by HMA Authority (2003/04-2005/06) 2003-04 2004-5 2005-6 Housing Transitional Transitional Transitional Housing Annual Private Housing Private Housing Private Total Total Capital Total Capital Sector SCE(R) Sector SCE(R) Sector Grant1 Guideline Renewal Renewal Renewal Dudley 2,383 - 2,383 3,165 - 3,165 3,212 0 0 3,212 Sandwell 6,563 117 6,680 6,628 252 6,880 6,866 1,951 20 8,837 Telford & Wrekin 943 - 943 1,076 - 1,076 1,067 0 0 1,067 Walsall 4,060 - 4,060 3,714 - 3,714 3,671 0 0 3,671 Wolverhampton 4,788 - 4,788 6,806 - 6,806 7,473 0 0 7,473 Total 18,737 117 18,854 21,389 252 21,641 22,289 1,951 20 24,260 Source: West Midlands Regional Housing Board
7.2.4 1.3 Regional Economic Strategy The West Midlands Regional Economic Strategy provides a strategic framework for policy intervention in five areas:
1. the development of a diverse and dynamic business base for the region - particularly in ten target business clusters 2. the promotion of a learning and skilful region 3. creation of the conditions for growth 4. community regeneration 5. provision of a powerful voice for the region
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The three mechanisms identified for the delivery of the Regional Economic Strategy are:
1. The West Midlands Cluster Action Plan 2. The Wolverhampton-Telford Technology Corridor 3. The West Midlands Regeneration Zones
The West Midlands ‘Cluster Action Plan’ provides a framework for investment of £Xm of RDA Single Pot resources plus West Midlands Objective 2 Priority 1 resources (ERDF and ESF) in activities to support the development of ten priority economic clusters in the region:
Transport technologies; Building technologies; Food and drink; Tourism and leisure; High-Value Consumer Products; Specialist business and professional services; ICT; Environmental technologies; Education and Entertainment Interactive Media; and Medical technologies.
The ‘Diversification and Modernisation Strategy’ developed for the Black Country (SQW) identifies that the Black Country should be focusing on developing economic activity in:
ICT Transport Technologies Medical Technologies Environmental Technologies
This is in addition to development of economic activity in the specific sectors of:
Advanced engineering Polymers and plastics Logistics
Telford’s Economic Development Strategy establishes an economic vision for 2020 based on an economy diversified into certain knowledge sector industries - including in particular value-added manufacturing and certain services.
7.2.5 1.4 Regional Transport Strategy The Regional Transport Strategy set out in RPG aims to improve access within and across the region in support of the RPG spatial strategy. Key policy priorities identified within the Regional Transport Strategy and the ‘West Midlands Local Transport Plan’ are:
Improvements to accessibility and mobility in Major Urban Areas - with measures identified including:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
development of an integrated and improved public transport network - including a comprehensive bus network, improvements to the local rail network, metro line extensions, investment in transport interchanges (including park and ride provision) traffic restraint/demand management measures including management of parking provision in local centres changing travel behaviour - including encouraging alternative forms of movement (walking and cycling) reducing the need to travel with high density developments located close to public transport nodes location of employment sites close to freight routes and improvement of strategic links to external markets through improvement of national road and rail networks
Transport investment to support economic regeneration including:
Improvement of national road and rail networks and link routes to ensure strategic links to external markets Transport links to economic regeneration frameworks such as the Technology Corridors (e.g. M54 link to M6 for the Wolves-Telford corridor) Measures to improve the accessibility of town and city centres (metro, showcase and red routes, pedestrian routes, car parking) Location of living areas close to employment areas and improve public transport connections
Key measures proposed of significance to the HMA identified to date include:
1. recent and proposed investments in the national road and rail network including:
the Birmingham Relief Road (M6 Toll) the Black Country Relief Road investments in the West Coast mainline (with proposed development of Wolverhampton Station) proposals for a link road between the M54 and M6 proposed western bypass to the Black Country
The implications of these investments for the economic development and urban renaissance of the Black Country need to be further explored. Potential effects include:
increased attractiveness of industrial development sites in the Black Country - particularly those located close to the national road network - including both sites within the conurbation and in peripheral locations (e.g. insert).
increased attractiveness of industrial development sites in Telford and other locations away from the Black Country/Birmingham conurbation if a proposed M54-M6 link road were realised
improved commuting links between the conurbation and surrounding areas
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
2. proposals for separation of freight and passenger rail routes in the Black Country - particularly the development of a Walsall-Stourbridge freight line.
3. proposed developments to the public transport networks including:
proposed additional metro lines including: 5 Ws route linking Wolverhampton and Wednesbury via Wednesfield, Willenhall and Walsall, and a metro line extension Brierley Hill
the provisions of the West Midlands bus strategy to develop the conurbation’s bus network
The potential impact of these proposals needs to be further explored in the light of more detailed proposals and the evidenced impact of the current metro provisions. The proposals demonstrate potential to improve public transport access within the conurbation - with the potential to improve local people’s access to jobs and services. Potential tensions between transport proposals and development plans will need to be resolved (e.g. between the proposed extension to Brierley Hill and development plans for local centres).
4. parking proposals including:
. investments in strategic park and ride facilities on the edge of the conurbation with a site proposed at Brinsford, Wolverhampton
. a proposed strategic approach to car parking provision between different local centres - in order to restrict long-term parking opportunities for commuters whilst facilitating short-term parking opportunities for shoppers
Potential positive impacts of these proposals are improved access and reduced congestion within the conurbation with potential benefits for business and the quality of life of the environment. Proposed peripheral park and ride facilities have the potential to deliver both positive and negative impacts resulting from improved access into the conurbation (e.g. increased numbers of shoppers and knowledge economy workers versus support for the trend for in-commuting rather than living in the conurbation).
2.0 Sub-Regional Policy and Investment Context 7.2.6 7.2.7 2.1 Black Country Study The Black Country Sub-Regional Study responds to a need to further develop the Regional Spatial Strategy as regards the Black Country - as identified by the Secretary of State and acknowledged by the Regional Planning Body in Summer 2002.
The Study is lead by the Black Country Consortium - working with a Strategic Management Steering Group representing sub-regional and regional interests providing interface with the Regional Assembly, GOWM and AWM to provide synergy with the RSS, Central policy and the RES. The specific aims of the Study include:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
1. to set radical new aspirations leading to the renaissance of the Black Country over the next 30 years
2. draft a Spatial Framework to guide the future development of the Black Country towards the 30 Year Vision including a transformed land use and transport structure
3. provide advice to the Regional Planning Body to inform the review of RPG 11 on:
Regeneration priorities The strategic role of town centres and Merry Hill Urban capacity Identification of employment land Scope for environmental and town centre improvements and Ways of improving access to regeneration sites - particularly on the eastern side of the Black Country
4. to set regeneration priorities for the Black Country to inform the preparation of key Delivery and Business Plans
5. to provide the strategic framework for preparation of future Community Plans and Local Development Frameworks
The target date for completion of the Study is Summer 2005.
2.1.1 The Black Country Vision The 30-year vision developed for the Black Country ‘Looking Forward: The Black Country in 2033’ (May 2003) identifies the aspirations of key stakeholders in the sub-region. The vision is of
“..a Polycentric City made up of four thriving and distinct retail and commercial ‘City’ centres - each one playing a unique role: West Bromwich home to C/PLEX (THE PUBLIC), Walsall known for its culture, Wolverhampton for its Universities and R&D base and Brierley Hill for its shopping. In addition the traditional centre of Dudley will have been transformed into a national icon for urban living with its strong family focus and its recreational and leisure facilities.”
Other key elements of the Vision are: a technology-based economy with tourism the primary sector; a strong educational and learning base; strong housing markets with sufficient affordable housing; a sustainable environment including a new public transport system and urban park network; and healthy, safe and cohesive communities - with high levels of youth engagement.
The accompanying strategic framework focuses on achieving significant sectoral and occupational change towards higher value (knowledge economy) activities and workers - underpinned by a step- change in skills levels including, in particular, the number of graduates in the labour market.
The strategic framework identifies as key requirements for the achievement of this major economic restructuring towards knowledge economy sectors as being:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Major land-use restructuring to deliver quality land and premises Delivery of the quality urban environments and design required to attract and retain knowledge businesses and workers Development of the role of local centres in the Black Country Delivery of improvements in residential choice, education and training to attract knowledge economy workers, higher skills and to raise income levels
In summary, the developing vision for the renaissance of the Black Country is predicated on achieving, in parallel, improved residential environments, job creation and workforce retraining.
2.1.2 Black Country Spatial Framework The key output from the Black Country Study will be a Spatial Framework for the sub-region - to guide other activities, strategies and policies. The Spatial Framework will translate the aspirations set out in the Black Country Vision into a preferred land use and transportation structure for the next 30 years (to 2033) - to inform the revision of the Regional Spatial Strategy and a development plan for the Black Country.
Key objectives for the Spatial Framework are to reverse out-migration, raise income levels and change the socio-economic mix of the Black Country. The preparation of the Framework therefore involves the development and testing of different spatial scenarios (particularly the land use/transport implications) relating to different levels of economic growth, household growth and socio-economic mix - applying the principles of the Spatial Strategy beyond the time period of RPG (up to 2021) to 2033. Spatial options (or ‘illustrations’) are being developed in terms of give potential key drivers for change:
Economy; Centres; Housing; Park/environment/culture; and Transport.
The key elements of the Spatial Framework will be:
An optimal economic strategy for the Black Country and its spatial implications Definition of the Strategic Centres for the Black Country including options as to their future roles and complementary centres (including Merry Hill) Principles for managing change in other local centres Proposals for a preferred sustainable transport system Housing requirements for maintaining or increasing the Black Country population - taking into account future demographics and lifestyle choices Key components for the enhancement of the physical/visual form of the Black Country An optimal balance between economic growth, housing development and environmental improvement
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Spatial implications and standards for other key aspirations of the Black Country Vision regarding cultural diversity, urban design, sustainable living, education, health, young people, facilities and services
The options (‘illustrations’) are being developed for three time periods to reflect the RSS time periods (to 2011, 2011 to 2021 and 2021 to 2031). The options will be developed for consultation and testing against:
Vision objectives (set out in the RSS Project Plan) RPG 11 - the Regional Spatial Strategy Sustainability/Environmental appraisal Potential for long-term growth Capacity (e.g. housing/employment land and transport) Balancing housing growth, employment growth and environmental change Marketability Community and stakeholder views
The transport implications of different spatial options (for the period 2011 to 2021) are being tested for:
A multi-centred Black Country - focused on the equal expansion of four strategic centres with housing growth extending radially outwards from those Centres (‘Centres’ - Illustration 1) Focus on growing Wolverhampton Centre supported by growth in six off-centre business parks and other three strategic centres (‘Spreading Growth’ - Illustration 2) Centres and nodes on corridors between, but with emphasis on growing Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill (Corridors - Illustration 3)
The housing reference case identified for the Black Country identifies:
Weakening housing market renewal in central core, with threat of ‘hollowing out’ Some new residential environments in core associated with existing Market Renewal and planned urban villages (including some aspirational housing) Some new ‘urban living’ in strategic centres Suburbs left to market, with limited environmental protection via planning control Windfalls from infilling and manufacturing decline.
2.1.3 Economic Strategy The long-term economic strategy developed for the Black Country to 203348 aims to raise incomes in the Black Country to the national average outside London by achieving:
sectoral change towards higher value added activities and with more employment in the finance/business services, arts and leisure and logistics sectors; a revision of the occupational structures - with higher proportions of managers and professionals; Workforce development - through a non-conventional strategy focused on major upskilling
48 GHK (2004) The Black Country in 2003: A Long Term Economic Strategy
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
This will be in addition to activity to reverse population decline - with a target of 200,000 additional people by 2030 half of whom are of working age - and activity to encourage innovation and productivity.
However, the Black Country tends to continue to reflect low levels of GVA with dependency on low level manufacturing and under representation of high technology manufacturing and market services. Reflected by low industrial land values, the Black Country has a portfolio of poor quality employment sites lacking suitable access.
A major challenge for the Black Country - identified through the Black Country Study49 -is to deliver sites of sufficient quality and accessibility required for industrial restructuring - given the complex urban form that has developed around the traditional industrial base offering “widespread but piecemeal development opportunities, hampered by the continuing legacy of soil pollution and land ownership patterns”.
The strategy therefore identifies an action plan focused on five areas - including (in addition to business engagement, development of knowledge economy infrastructure, and development of leisure and arts facilities and events):
land assembly to deliver sites of high environmental quality with central sites for office development and off-centre sites for manufacturing and logistics;
complete renewal of the environment with 3,000 hectares and 12m sq.m. of modern floorspace developed every 15 years, development of an urban park, delivery of quality urban design (spaces and buildings), management of environmental impacts and development of environmental goods and services
Accessibility of sites - with reasonable access to major roads and motorways is also identified as a priority.
The strategy also proposes the creation of separate logistics zones to enable the Black Country to maximise the potential from its locational advantage to create the scale of logistics and distribution activity required to achieve higher employment and income benefits. (The provisions of the West Midlands Transport Plan to improve freight access routes within the conurbation also offer potential for ameliorating the potentially negative impact of increased logistics and distribution activity in the Black Country on accessibility and environmental quality).
The Black Country Study provides an indication of the scale of development implied by the Economic Strategy (Table B.5). Research has recently been commissioned to identify the capacity for delivery of employment land.
49 GHK (2004) ‘Spatial Development Implications of the Preferred Economic Development Strategy and Pathway’
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table B.5: Scale of Development associated with the Black County Economic Strategy Sector Size (ha) Floorspace (m2) Total No. Manufacturing Centre-based industry park 5 30,000 16 Off-centre industry park 10 50,000 16
Logistic and distribution zones 40 120,000 52
Office development City centre 1 50,000 40 Off-centre 10 30,000 15 Source: GHK (2004)
2.1.4 Role of Local Centres The Black Country’s urban centres are accorded a central role in the delivery of the Black Country Vision, the regeneration of the conurbation and the diversification and modernisation of its economy towards knowledge economy and service sectors. For example, the Black Country Study identifies that whilst some office provision will be accommodated in off-centre business parks along public transport corridors, the majority of jobs are expected to be located in urban centres.
The Vision envisages a polycentric City made up of four strategic thriving and distinctive retail and commercial city centres each playing a unique role:
- West Bromwich home to THE PUBLIC - Walsall known for its culture - Wolverhampton known for its universities and R&D base - Brierley Hill known for its shopping
- (plus Dudley transformed into a national icon for urban living)
This would represent a concentration of future development and employment in and around these strategic centres (whereas current employment is more dispersed amongst the larger number of district centres in the Black Country).
This focus on strategic centres has been identified as a key area for testing through the Black Country Study. In particular testing will focus on existing centres and corridors between centres, and the potential for growth in all four centres (West Bromwich, Walsall, Wolverhampton and Brierley Hill) - particularly building on a strong Wolverhampton and the retail and office potential of Brierley Hill.
The intention is to expand the retail offer of each centre as well as establishing a USP (Unique Selling Point) for each centre. Residential development close to centres is identified as a priority to support their development. Strategic centres are also identified by the Black Country Study as the key locations for office development in the Black Country - particularly strategic centres to take advantage of the scope for agglomeration economies and public transport investments. Potential is therefore identified for mixed-use development in strategic centres.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The Black Country Study identifies support for concentration of initial developments in one or two strategic centres initially as a trigger for wider transformation - with the majority of developers consulted preferring Wolverhampton. Investments in Wolverhampton City Centre would complement recent investment in the creative industries and science park plus further investment in the university as recommended by the Black Country Study.
A key challenge for achieving the Black Country vision will be the development of a shared strategy for town centre development to ensure their co-ordinated development and that their potential contribution to the economic regeneration of the conurbation is maximised - particularly in the face of competition from Bullring Birmingham. A key issue will be how Brierley Hill is developed - particularly with the proposed metro extension - and how the impact of its further development on the other key centres in the conurbation can be managed. The planning aspirations for Brierley Hill are currently being decided.
2.1.5 Housing Strategy The Black Country Vision and strategic framework accord an important role for the delivery of high quality residential environments to attract the knowledge economy workers required to support the economic and urban renaissance of the Black Country.
Emerging strategic priorities for housing are to change the socio-economic mix of the Black Country by creating locations for aspirational housing in parallel with:
addressing issues of low demand and social polarisation delivering RPG housebuilding/clearance rates and test population/household growth beyond 2021 working up radical options for residential change based on bolder strategies than currently planned
In particular the Vision envisages:
High quality, high density family residential areas located around public transport nodes - including centres and integrated within the setting of the new Black Country landscape
High quality, high density living environments within the four key centres and sub-centres with a strong canal and/or heritage asset
Quality mixed tenure housing throughout the Black Country with access to services - housing market renewal and housing market enhancement
The Black Country Study aims to develop a housing strategy to:
create high quality residential environments for knowledge workers address issues of emerging low demand and social polarisation balance retention of affluent households with a strong social housing market and providing for key workers deliver RPG housebuilding and clearance rates to 2011 and deliver or exceed rates from 2011 to 2021
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
test population/household growth scenarios beyond 2021 work up radical options for residential change based on bolder replacement strategies than currently planned. Based on:
prioritisation of identification of locations providing the best opportunities for quality residential locations (e.g. adjacent to canals, landscape features, existing residential areas, in centres and at nodes served by transport corridors) Establishment of a rolling programme of residential site allocations and land assembly to deliver sites of sufficient size and quality. Delivery of transformational demonstration projects which engage the private sector. Establishment of a Black Country Group to define principles of quality design and to monitor design standards Pursuance of RPG house building rates on the basis of existing land allocations Evaluation of options for delivering and exceeding minimum housebuilding rates set out in RPG
Encourage greater public transport connectivity.
To inform the development of this strategy a Housing Study is being undertaken - including the Urban Capacity study already identified. The work requirement identified for the Housing Study is an analysis of housing markets in the Black Country - including strategic implications, opportunities for change and lifestyle perspectives - and definition and testing of alternative strategies. The Study is also required to establish the housing requirements for maintaining or increasing the Black Country population taking into account future demographics and lifestyle choices for all incomes - including:
the numbers of replacement and additional dwellings; the types of residential environment needed (including high quality new residential environments of first choice); density and capacity, including opportunities for new living choices (e.g. town centre living, lifestyle complexes and retirement villages), impact on schools investment, learning, leisure and health facilities and their spatial implications;
The Study will also develop spatial options based on:
the identification of locations that provide for opportunities for change to create new residential environments - particularly quality residential locations for residents in knowledge-based work – such as adjacent to canals, landscape features, existing residential areas, in centres and on nodes served by transport corridors
the spatial implications for achieving the decent homes standard and renewal of areas of housing stress.
7.2.8 2.2 Wolverhampton-Telford High Technology Corridor The Wolverhampton-Telford High Technology Corridor offers a strategic framework for investment of RDA Single Pot resources to attract high technology and high-value-added businesses in the M54 corridor area. The current Action Plan for the three year period 2005-2008 Action identifies a programme of investment of some £41.5m. Some of the key actions identified are:
Investment to support the development of target economic clusters:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
An advanced engineering cluster in Wolverhampton - including investment in an Integrated Engineering Support Facility A polymer engineering cluster in Telford - including investment in a polymer incubation/innovation centre
Investment in physical infrastructure including:
Wolverhampton Science Park Phase 3 (Creative Industries Centre) to support creative industries investment and particularly spin-outs from the University of Wolverhampton’s activities in Performance, Art and Design and Humanities; a new ICT development centre at Priorslee in Telford to support incubation and development activities for e-business, e-learning and e-innovation; conceptual development of major investment sites in Telford - the proposed ‘Lakeside’ Technology Park and !54 Technology Park.
Investment in an Integrated Innovation Initiative for University of Wolverhampton students.
AWM has requested that the strategy for the Wolverhampton Telford Technology Corridor is integrated into the new economic development strategy for Telford.
The region’s Cluster Action Plan and the High Technology Corridor for Wolverhampton-Telford represent significant investment capacity to support the development of knowledge economy industries in the area of the HMA. Key issues to explore further are:
The capacity of each of the HMA local authorities (Black Country and Telford) to offer the employment sites and urban environment demanded by knowledge economy investment
The economic relationship between Telford and the Black Country and any issues surrounding the relative competitiveness of the Black Country and Telford to attract knowledge economy investment
The capacity of the Black Country, in particular, to link knowledge economy investment with the wider regeneration of the Black Country - for example, by upskilling the local labour force and attracting knowledge economy workers to live in the Black Country 7.2.9 7.2.10 2.3 Regeneration Zones The six West Midlands Regeneration Zones are intended to offer a strategic framework to achieve this linkage between bringing forward economic development opportunity and linking this to areas of need. The South Black Country, West Birmingham Zone encompasses Sandwell and Dudley, whilst the North Black Country South Staffordshire Zone encompasses Wolverhampton and Walsall.
In terms of their policy intent, the Zones covering the Black Country offer a framework for additional investment to support the integrated regeneration of the Black Country focused on:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
1. Enhanced business support for indigenous businesses plus new-starts - including the provision of appropriate premises and support to attract knowledge economy investment; 2. Workforce skills development - both basic skills training and vocational training for target growth sectors (e.g. high value added engineering, construction, public sector and retail); 3. Strategic/priority investment sites and areas are identified in Table B.6.
Table B.6: Regeneration Zone strategic/priority investment sites and areas North Black Country Regeneration Zone - ‘Future Foundations’ Wolverhampton Walsall Wolverhampton City Centre The UDC area - including Bilston Urban Village Darlaston Strategic Development !54 Area South Black Country Regeneration Zone - ‘Arc of Opportunity’ Dudley Sandwell Castle Hill Hill Top Dudley Town Centre West Bromwich Town Centre Brierley Hill Junction 9 M6 North Smethwick Canalside Smethwick Town Centre Source: Regeneration Zone Implementation Plans (2004/05)
4. Economic inclusion of those disadvantaged in the labour market - through training interventions and associated support (including voluntary and community sector activity)
There are a number of significant challenges to the Zones’ capacity to deliver the integrated regeneration of the Black Country - not least:
The limited level of resources available to the Zones to deliver a broad agenda - for example the current allocations for physical regeneration investment for 2005-08 are £12.4m for the North Black Country Zone (including the ‘South Staffordshire’ area of the Zone) and £30.7m for the South Black Country Zone (including the ‘West Birmingham’ area of the Zone);
The capacity of the two Zones to influence strategic, integrated investment at the sub-regional level - beyond their role as a mechanism for delivery of Zone-funded interventions;
A wide range of challenges within the sub-regional governance, policy, market, funding and physical context.
The emerging strategic framework for the Black Country should offer a valuable framework for the Zones which they should incorporate into the development of their strategies and delivery plans.
7.2.11 2.4 Birmingham-Sandwell Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder (Urban Living) Urban Living is the Birmingham-Sandwell Housing Market Renewal Pathfinder - a partnership between Sandwell MBC, Birmingham City Council, other public agencies, local registered social landlords and the two local strategic partnerships. Governance is through the Urban Living Partnership Forum with Sandwell MBC acting as accountable body.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The Urban Living Housing Market Renewal Area is located two miles north west of Birmingham City Centre and extends a further three miles west to West Bromwich in the Borough of Sandwell. The area includes Handsworth, Aston, Lozells, Winson Green, Smethwick, Langley and West Bromwich.
Unlike some of the other Pathfinders the Urban Living area is not one of abandonment or low demand in the housing market. Unlike some of the Pathfinders it is proximate to areas of current and projected economic growth (the City Centre) which could help to sustain further jobs and homes in the Pathfinder area. It does though have a complex series of housing market issues coupled with low median income levels, very high levels of multiple deprivation and the highest (in % terms) Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) population of all nine Pathfinders, by some margin.
The original strategy in the Urban Living Prospectus had the following aspirations:
The creation of a diverse, cohesive and flourishing multi-cultural neighbourhoods with their own attractions and characteristics that make people want to live, work, invest and spend their leisure time in the area Achieving design excellence Adopting a holistic approach Encouraging cultural diversity Encouraging social integration Achieving sustainability Engaging the community
The measures to meet those broad objectives included the re-rejuvenation of town centres in the area, building new affordable homes, enhancing accessibility to transport, jobs and facilities, building on economic links, and improving the strategic location of the Pathfinder area. The programme is currently providing assistance to what will probably be the last large scale clearance programme for a number of years as much of the surplus and obsolete stock will have been removed by 2005/06. The emphasis then is likely to swing towards rebuilding the market and ensuring a new and varies supply is re-introduced into the HMRA.
3.0 Local Policy and Investment Context
3.1 Wolverhampton
3.1.1 Housing Strategy Wolverhampton’s Housing Strategy 04/05-06/07 (October 2004 version) identifies the following strategic priorities:
1. to make all neighbourhoods safe, popular and desirable
2. to ensure an adequate supply of housing which meets needs and aspirations with key issues identified as:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
increased need/demand for social housing alongside a reduction in the City’s social housing stock - reflected in growing council housing waiting lists (17.9% in 03/04) and increasing homelessness (15.7% increase since 01/02)
increased need/demand for subsidised housing with house price inflation 02-04 of 60.4%
increased demand for single person housing
3. to ensure that people with special needs or who are vulnerable have appropriate housing and support - with a high proportion of people with special needs in the City (with limiting long-term illness (31% of households include someone with a disability) and a growing older population - with a third of households pensioner households
4. to ensure that the stock is in good condition with issues of:
approx. 52% of homes not meeting the Decent Homes Standard in 2004 and almost all properties within the stock classified as potentially non-decent by 2010 - and a number of failing or unsuccessful council estates. The Council has a major demolition programme to renew much of the failing social housing stock to be replaced with multi-tenure provision. Improving the Council’s CPA service is also a priority with a CPA score in 2003 of 1 out of 4.
poor conditions in parts of the private sector (which makes up 67% of the housing stock - of which 12% are unfit or have been vacant for more than six months (HIP return 2003)) - including the private rented sector (which makes up 6.6% of the stock) (private stock condition survey to be commissioned in 04/05) - with some housing markets dysfunctional and having the potential for failure
The Housing Strategy identifies six housing areas on the basis of grouped neighbourhoods - defined according to housing price, property type and tenure - to assist in the planning of interventions. These are identified in Table B.7.
Table B.7: Wolverhampton Housing Areas Housing Area Location Housing Character West more affluent area with some poor council blocks Central St Peters, Blakenhall, area of low quality private sector pre 1919 terraces) Graiseley, Heath Town and poor condition Council blocks Bilston North and East area with low average house prices, poor condition older stock and unpopular council blocks Wednesfield & north east of City Centre some pockets of poor private rented and poor Fallings Park environment and housing). Wednesfield South PFI South East East Park, Ettingshall, lower average house prices and poor condition local Spring Vale authority stock in East Park North Oxley, Bushbury, Low high level of deprivation in low hill and vacant Hill properties Source: Wolverhampton City Council Housing Strategy 04/05-06/07
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Eight Urban Regeneration Areas (URAs) have been identified in which redevelopment is underway and where options for future investment/tenure/employment and development of sustainable communities is being progressed:
Low Hill Bushbury Triangle East Park Portobello Villiers Estate/Bilston Ettingshall Blakenhall Gardens Graisely
BME Issues - The strategy highlights the need to understand and address the experience of BME communities in neighbourhoods in relation to any work undertaken. The BME population is prevalent in poor quality private sector housing and less popular council estates. Area based initiatives (Neighbourhood Management and New Deal for Communities) are identified a the key interventions to address BME housing concerns - in addition to action to mainstream equality identified in the Housing Services Improvement Plan (2003). A BME housing strategy is to be produced in 2004/05.
3.1.2 Housing Investment Programme The HRA Business Plan 2002 stated that several estates, mostly being flatted estates, had no demand as follows:
1. Large parts of Heath Town 2. Blakenhall Gardens 3. The Mayfields 4. Portobello high-rise 5. Lower Low Hill/Busbury Triangle/Three Tuns 6. Ettingshall 7. Bradley
Plans were in place to rehouse residents and demolish most to the surplus accommodation identified and for a rate of 200 demolitions per year to be sustained over 2003 – 08. It is working with RSLs and private developers to generally replace unviable stock with sustainable developments. At this stage [2002] it said that much work needed to be done to understand the housing market and the implications of decommissioning Council stock.
The financial analysis carried out as part of Wolverhampton’s option appraisal showed that £150m needed to be spent by 2012 to meet the DHS and ‘the aspirational standard of the City Council and its residents’. The authority has subsequently pursued the ALMO route in order to secure additional resources.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
3.1.3 ALMO Delivery Plan Wolverhampton Homes has an additional allocation of £288m (conditional on achieving a 2* rating) to be spent on reaching the DHS by 2010 from 2006/07 - with the remaining finance required to meet a total investment requirement of £400m (£112m) coming from the annual capital investment programme. During the period of renewal, it anticipates that sales will reduce the Council stock by approximately 500 per year and demolitions by around 100 per year. The ALMO plans to spend at least £60m per year in this period, with a peak of £86-87m in 2007/08 – 2008/9. The bulk of the programme is internal works with £16m for environmental works, £17m allocated for “sustainability” and £25m for “other”.
The Council state that the ALMO will have a significant impact in delivering regeneration, contributing to sustainable neighbourhoods, community safety and environment, job creation, employment and increased training opportunities. The ALMO bid document states that the ALMO Delivery Plan will inform the second stage of the Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy. It says that “the ALMO has a real opportunity to both influence and deliver neighbourhood renewal, and the potential to promote and deliver some more innovative approaches piloted through the Neighbourhood Renewal Fund. It also envisages that there will be local training and job opportunities and local sourcing of materials having a “major impact on the local economy.
The Council retains responsibility for housing strategy, by providing information on the work of the ALMO, demand trends and other information needed for strategic decisions. It will develop an HRA Business Plan that links repairs and capital improvements to a comprehensive programme and develop partnering arrangements for delivery of the programme. It reports that further work has been undertaken to strengthen the strategic function “through the Council’s Regeneration and Transportation cluster, which maximises the regeneration opportunity that housing investment can bring”. 7.2.12 3.1.4 Neighbourhood Renewal Activity Neighbourhood Management is identified as the major intervention for disadvantaged neighbourhoods and the key strategic tool for delivery of the City’s Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy. There are seven neighbourhood management pilot areas in operation in the City - plus the All Saints and Blakenhall New Deal for Communities area (ABCD) will become a Neighbourhood Management pilot. The pilots deliver actions in the national neighbourhood renewal ‘floor target’ areas (housing and environment, crime and community safety, health, employment, and education) plus access to services.
Wolverhampton’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund allocation for 2005/06 is £5.928m which - assuming an equal split of funding between the seven pilot areas, would mean just over £0.847m per area.
There is recognition of need for comprehensive strategies for neighbourhood renewal which address wider economic, social and physical problems as well as housing issues. The Council proposes a variety of mechanisms to achieve housing renewal where there are areas of unpopular or unsustainable housing - with strategies prepared to guide neighbourhood renewal based on principles of:
Maintaining and reusing existing land and buildings were possible
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Working in partnership with local community and private and public agencies to identify, target and promote renewal initiatives and co-ordinate action Ensuring high quality of design through development briefs etc Achieving high densities on suitably located sites whilst ensuring sufficient recreational open space and other important community facilities Achieving a sustainable mix of market, affordable and special needs housing
Sites where housing renewal is currently taking place or is programmed are:
The Mayfield, Willenhall Road, Old Heath Bushbury Triangle Portobello Flats, New Street & South Street
Areas identified as likely to give rise to a significant amount of housing renewal - with large-scale demolition programmes already underway (focused on Blakenhall Gardens and Fourth and Fifth Avenues) are:
All Saints and Blakenhall Community Development New Deal Area (master plan produced identifying key levers for change and priority areas for action including Blakenhall Gardens and the All Saints residential area)
Low Hill Action Plan area (an action plan and development brief being prepared to guide the redevelopment of the area)
Further areas are expected to be added to the housing renewal programme over the life of the plan.
All Saints and Blakenhall New Deal for Communities (ABCD) The ‘All Saints and Blakenhall’ New Deal for Communities programme has been allocated £53.5 million for a ten-year integrated programme (2001-2011) to address crime, unemployment, housing conditions, educational attainment and health levels. The area has 970 council owned properties- 80% of which are classed as non-decent due to heating and window problems. However, the condition of private sector housing is the biggest challenge for the ABCD area - representing market failure. Over 50% of the area’s residents are from BME groups. Strategic priorities identified in the original delivery plan are:
1- Regeneration of Private Sector Housing 2- Blakenhall Gardens Redevelopment 3- Fuel Poverty Action Plan programme 4- Addressing specific needs of BME communities 5- Waste Management and sustainable environment
Table B.8 presents the strategic priorities for the programme and priority actions as identified from the Housing Strategy 04/05-06/07.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table B.8: All Saints and Blakenhall New Deal for Communities Programme (2001-20011) Strategic Objectives Key Issues Priority Actions Resources SO1: Regeneration of No. of unfit, derelict, Significant Resources to be Private Sector empty and unimproved redevelopment plus identified Housing (Particularly properties in the refurbishment in All Saints) private sector – proposed believed to be much (neighbourhood higher than the City renewal assessment average being undertaken)
Introduction of private rented sector support services SO2: Blakenhall Low demand in public Development of an £298,000 – NDC Gardens sector housing – high action plan for the area Project approval [Feb Redevelopment turnover rates [37.8%] including demolition of 2003] compared to 15.6% 5 council-owned tower City average. blocks Unpopular multi-storey tower blocks. SO3: Fuel Poverty Poor heating and Cross tenure £1.37m - NDC Project Action Programme insulation in all programme approval [Feb 2003 – Mar 05] housing [20-25%]
thought to be below minimum SAP rating - 60 SO4: Addressing the BME representation in Racial Equality To be identified Specific Needs of various sectors of Strategy Prepared BME communities housing with concentration in poorer quality housing particularly private sector SO5: Waste Lower satisfaction Review existing and To be identified Management and ratings by residents establish new contract Sustainable with area appearance for waste management Environments compared with /environmental England average [65% services compared with 85%] Source: NDC Delivery Plan
3.1.5 Housing Land Supply Key factors relating to housing land supply in Wolverhampton are as follows:
RPG11 (1998) identified a requirement for Wolverhampton of 10,100 new dwellings for the period 1991-2011.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The RPG requirement plus 1,170 additional dwellings required to replace anticipated demolitions in urban regeneration areas, give a total annual requirement of 740 additional dwellings. The current Revised Deposit UDP identifies sufficient housing land supply to meet the RPG targets for the period 2003-2011 (Table B.9). More than half of the supply is on unidentified sites reflecting the fact that a significant proportion of the sites will be on windfall sites that come available on former employment land as businesses close or relocate. The Council has also adopted a policy of unrestricted release of previously developed sites on the basis that a restrictive policy could potentially create an under-supply of housing land following 2011 when a more challenging target of land supply for 825 dwellings p.a. comes into play. More than 90% of completions are expected to be on previously-developed land (the RPG target is 99%). More than a quarter of total housing capacity is located in Wolverhampton City Centre - on mixed use and single use housing sites. There is evidence of a strong housing market in the City Centre with 103 dwelling completions 2003-2004, 227 dwellings under construction as of April 2004, 500 dwellings with outstanding planning permissions and 153 will full permission. Urban Villages are also being developed that will change the provision of housing in Wolverhampton:
St. John’s Urban Village is a mixed use development including 500 new units of accommodation of which 20% will be affordable. This programme is progressing.
Bilston Urban Village is a major mixed use development to include 1,300 new homes. Any development is unlikely before 2009.
RPG11 estimated that Wolverhampton’s affordable housing need to be in the region of 4,400 dwellings over the period 1991 to 2011 - representing 46% of the housing allocation. On the basis of the housing needs survey, the Council has identified a need for 415 additional units of affordable housing each year over the period 2002-2007 (total 2,075) to meet an increasing need for affordable housing amongst first time buyers, single people, the elderly and other local income households. In addition, the Council has identified a need for a 30 unsubsidised, small “starter market units” per annum. This need will be met through negotiation of affordable housing on all suitable private sector housing developments larger than one hectare or comprising 25 dwellings with: 20% of units on sites within the City Centre inset area 25% on sites outside the City Centre inset area; and 30% on housing renewal sites
3.1.6 Economic Development Wolverhampton’s Economic Strategy is being updated.
Recent research into the economic prospects for Wolverhampton published in 200150 identified:
50 Prism Research (2001) Wolverhampton Economic Prospects: a report to Wolverhampton Task Force
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
an expectation of growth in business output of 18% by 2011 (substantially below regional and national projections) and a decline in total employment of 3,900 jobs. That the Borough is under-performing on the main economic indicators at typically around 10% behind the UK. This is attributed to the Borough’s bias towards sectors of employment decline, weak performance by existing businesses, a poorly developed entrepreneurial culture, a lack of innovation and investment and a lack of impact achieved from inward investment concerns about the regional priority sectors selected for targeting by Black Country partners and recommended the targeting of sectors which are more ‘job rich’ (e.g. food and drink, retail, education and health) that the fruition of the regeneration plans for the City Centre are identified as having the potential to contribute significantly to retail development in the Borough. The central importance of the University to the City’s economy is also highlighted gross in-commuting figure to the Borough of nearly 43,000 - with a population catchment of 30m within a two-hour drive-time and good road and railway connections a need to increase the number of jobs filled by local residents - with educational attainment amongst the workforce behind regional and national averages a potential “hollowing out” of the workforce resulting from demographic trends and potential loss of skills and experience from older age groups. a substantial property supply for economic uses, but that assessment is required of the quality and availability of the land supply as regards the property requirements of growth sector businesses. A predominance of brownfield and contaminated land and the bias towards industrial space are identified as key issues.
A study into the employment land capacity in the Borough (GVA Grimley, 1997) identified:
that due to the City’s tightly drawn administrative boundary and green belt restrictions, the provision of a balanced portfolio of employment land will increasingly rely on sites outside the City boundary the importance of land to the north of Wolverhampton in meeting the premium quality employment land needs of the north Black Country (at Wobaston Road and Hilton Main in South Staffordshire). The South Staffordshire Local Plan and Staffordshire and Stoke on Trent Structure Plan are identified as providing up to 100 ha of high quality employment land to the north of Wolverhampton - of which 50ha is a Major Investment Site and 50ha a Regional Investment Site.
Key locations for employment development are identified as follows:
A449 Stafford Road Corridor The UDP identifies that employment growth will be promoted principally at key nodal points located on three of four the strategic regeneration corridors identified in the Area Development Framework for the Borough:
The A449 Stafford Road corridor to the north of the City Centre along the line of the West Coast Main Line corridor out towards the northern periphery of the conurbation and regionally important investment sites: Wolverhampton Business Park, Wobaston Road and Hilton Cross.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The Wolverhampton-Telford Technology Corridor and its proposed investments in Wolverhampton Science Park is likely to further strengthen the role of this corridor
The Bilston corridor to the south east of the Borough and the Bilston strategic regeneration area
The Wednesfield corridor from the City Centre along the A4124 into Wednesfield and then into Walsall - passing the site of the major New Cross Hospital Development and an industrial zone to the south
The Stafford Road corridor is identified as being of particular importance as it contains a number of the City’s larger employers including the University of Wolverhampton and Wolverhampton Business and Science Parks. The corridor’s excellent communication links, high quality development opportunities and existing businesses are highlighted as offering potential to attract high profile, growth sector cluster organisations and support to initiatives in the Wolverhampton-Telford High Technology Corridor.
Wolverhampton City Centre The Black Country Study identifies Wolverhampton City Centre as one of four strategic centres in the Black Country - with its particular USP being to build on its University and R&D base. The City Centre is identified as potentially leading investment in centres the Black Country as a trigger for wider transformation - with the majority of developers consulted preferring Wolverhampton. Investments in Wolverhampton City Centre would complement recent investment in the creative industries and science park plus further investment in the university recommended by the Black Country Study.
The development of a draft ‘City Centre Strategy and Action Plan’ (June 2004) responds to the increasing competition from other centres for regeneration investment. New residential development in the City Centre (Wolverhampton Urban Village) is a key feature of the plans for the City Centre - with the aim of achieving 80% market housing and 20% affordable housing. Provisions are also made for improving the quality of the environment and access to the City Centre.
3.1.7 Transport Priorities The UDP identifies a focus for transport investment on the Borough’s identified Strategic Regeneration Areas and Corridors - including those corridors identified as a focus for employment development. Priority major transport schemes including Strategic Park and Ride sites on the edge of the conurbation to serve commuters travelling into Wolverhampton and elsewhere in the West Midlands conurbation.
3.1.8 Urban Form Wolverhampton has developed a traditional city form with a clear urban centre (Wolverhampton City Centre) at the heart of the Borough with concentric development along radial transport routes. The Borough’s Revised Deposit UDP makes provision for
high standards of design an urban structure which provides for improved access and movement improved environmental quality and public realm improvements
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
community safety access for people with disabilities nature conservation sustainable development public art
7.2.13 3.2 Walsall 7.2.14 3.2.1 Housing Strategy Walsall’s Housing Strategy has four substantive strategic housing objectives:
Urban renaissance and creating sustainable communities Improving the quality of housing stock and providing safe environments Community cohesion, capitalising on cultural diversity and promoting social inclusion Ensuring all tenants, social and private, get an excellent service from their landlord
Objective 1 Urban renaissance and creating sustainable communities involves “creating a range of quality housing environments that offer housing choice”. The strategy has a key target “to achieve a balanced housing market we will ensure that 90% of all new homes to be built, is on previously developed land”. Priorities listed to achieve this objective are
Implementing the housing proposals within the NDC area and using this as a model for each priority Neighbourhood Renewal Area Developing the Black Country and South Telford HMRA Supporting quality developments that create choice and opportunity to move up the property ladder Support for “targeted new affordable housing provision without exacerbating pockets of low demand” Retaining economically active people in the area.
Objective 2 Improving the quality of housing stock and providing safe environments is intended to deliver the decent homes standard and to create safe and secure environments. The key target is to achieve the DHS in all social housing by 2010, with a 45% reduction by 2006. Priorities listed under this objective also include private sector initiatives, including:
A private sector programme of neighbourhood renewal assessments (NRA) Completion of NRAs in Birchills and Alumwell Implementation of a private landlords accreditation scheme Projects aimed at reducing crime and disorder
Objective 3 Community cohesion, capitalising on cultural diversity and promoting social inclusion is described as being about addressing the needs of specific client groups and ensuring fairness and equality in service delivery. Key targets to meet this objective are successful implementation of the Supporting People programme and the provision of 50% of housing advice in locally based settings by 2007. Stated priorities to achieve this objective are provision of a flexible range of tenure options,
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 additional supported housing and floating support, direct access service provision for single people, development of as registered of adapted properties and development of a BME action plan.
Objective 4 of ensuring that all tenants, social and private, get an excellent service from their landlord contains as its key target ensuring that two transfer organisations (Walsall Housing Group and WATMOS Housing Co-operative) deliver the promises made to tenants in the offer documents at the time of transfer. Key priorities to achieve this are to implement a post transfer strategic housing structure within the authority, to monitor performance and liaise with WHG and WATMOS Housing Co-operative and to develop the role of the Walsall Housing Partnership.
3.2.2 Housing Investment Programme In March 2003 Walsall MBC transferred its stock of 24,640 dwellings to two RSLs. They are
1. WATMOS – a group of 8 TMOs managing 1,840 properties between them located in Birchills, Bloxwich, Leamore, Palfrey and Pelsall; and
2. Walsall Housing Group (made up of five Housing Trusts) to which 22,800 homes were transferred covering five areas:
Aldridge and Brownhills (4,602 units)– Aldridge, Pheasey, Hatherton, Rushall, Shekfield, Walsall Wood, Pelsall and Brownhills Bloxwich (5,497 units) – Leamore, Harden, Goscote, Blakenhall and Bloxwich Central Walsall (4,234 units) – Pleck, Caldmore, Chuckery, Delies, Alumwell, Bichills, North Walsall and Ryecroft Darlaston (3,524 units) – Moxley, Darlaston, Roughhey, Bailey Willenhall (3,533 units ) – Wilenhall, New Invention and South Heath
WHG was set up with the aims of improving service standards, raising funding for housing investment; and becoming a major contributor to the regeneration of Walsall. The group plans to spend £240m over a 7-year period and as at January 2005 is reported to be ahead of its programme. The group is focused on asset management options and decisions but sees a future role for itself on development and a wide range of community initiatives. A partnership with the Council was envisaged at transfer with the group assisting WMBC to assess housing need and contributing to its Housing Strategy.
At transfer WHG state that the stock was not to a decent standard and that “our stock profile does not adequately match the needs of our current or future residents”. It also envisages significant reductions due to Right to Buy sales and demolitions. In 2003/04 there were 828 RTB sales at a mean average market value of £49,000. In future it envisages having an asset base which will support borrowing to fund development of new homes. It proposal to start building new homes and re-shaping housing markets in key estates, with its first capital grants secured, by 2008 and to have identified opportunities to work outside of the Borough.
Key projects for 2005/06 include regeneration and land-use master planning, neighbourhood profiling and development of frameworks for investment choices in later years. Of the 5 constituent trusts
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Bloxwich Trust has been highlighted in carrying out housing market restricting through selective demolition and rebuilding in conjunction with Walsall NDC. This has commenced with demolitions in the Taylor Rd and Walker Rd areas. Consultation is taking place on new properties, play areas and environmental improvements. A master planning exercise is underway for Goscote “in a bid to address the problems which have been faced by the area for many years”. The Wilenhall Trust has commenced regeneration in Short Heath, with the demolition of tower blocks (Bannington, Fairview and Bannington Courts) to develop a mix of homes for rent and sale. The Darlaston Trust has commenced work on a programme to demolish 120 houses (beginning in Harrowby Road) which are unsafe for habitation which will make way for redevelopment of this part of the area. Aldridge and Brownhills Trust has demolished empty tower blocks (Silver Courts Area) and is seeking to re-use the land for residential development appropriate to local need
Figure B.9: Walsall Housing Group - Spend Profile, Major Works, 2005/06 Aldridge / Brownhills £13,603,874 Bloxwich £10,301,457 Central Walsall £9,553,530 Darlaston £8,532,099 Willenhall £7,751,772 Total £49,742,732 Source: Walsall Housing Group
3.2.3 Neighbourhood Renewal Walsall’s Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy identifies that the most deprived wards are concentrated in Walsall Town Centre and to the west and north of the Borough (Darlaston, Willenhall and Bloxwich) - joined by areas of less severe deprivation. There is a clear split between traditional industry, older housing and environmental degradation of west of Borough and more recent urban development (much of which commuter dormitories) to the east of the Borough.
The Strategy identifies nine priority neighbourhoods for renewal - ranked as the most deprived in the Borough - which are concentrated in central/west central and parts of the western area of the Borough:
Leamore/Harden Ryecroft/Coalpool Goscote Beechdale North Walsall Alumwell Caldmore North Blakenhall Rough Hay
Walsall’s total Neighbourhood Renewal Fund allocation for 2005/06 is £7.122m (see Figure B.9) which would give an allocation of £0.791m per priority neighbourhood assuming an even resource split.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Two additional neighbourhoods identified as being ‘vulnerable to decline’ are also identified:
Bentley South Willenhall
The Walsall New Deal programme serves the area of Blakenhall, Bloxwich East and Leamore.
3.2.4 Housing Land Supply The focus of Walsall UDP housing policies are on the improvement of the existing stock wherever feasible and addressing vacancies in the existing stock. This includes improvements to the Council stock and investment in private sector renewal areas through the Neighbourhood Renewal Assessment (NRA) procedure.
Demolition of the existing stock will only be favoured - except where it is required to make way for other desirable development schemes - where any other solution would not represent good value for money or would be environmentally unsatisfactory.
Where appropriate environmental enhancement schemes will be carried out, and dwellings will be converted into smaller or larger units. The Council also seeks to reduce vacancies in the existing stock.
RPG 11 sets a target for 10,100 additional dwellings to be provided over the period 1991-2011 (on average 505 dwellings per year). The UDP identifies sufficient land supply for this provision. Identification of land for new housing is focused on:
Reuse of previously developed land Locations with good accessibility by a choice of means of transport and to local facilities (close of town, district and local centres) Utilising existing infrastructure capacity The potential to build new communities to support physical and social infrastructure Taking account of physical and environmental constraints
The plan identifies that 80% of the housing land supply (1991-2011) is on previously developed land (compared to an RPG target of 79%). This is based on a higher rate of brownfield development (83%) compared to the period 1991 to 2001 which involved 68% of completions on brownfield land. Five Greenfield sites are proposed for development - including three additional sites to the 1995 plan: West of Clayhanger, Berryfields, Aldridge and Lichfield Road/King George Crescent, Rushall.
1997 Advice on the RPG11 review identified a target of 3,600 affordable homes for Walsall over the period 1991-2011. The requirement for remainder of the Plan period (2002-2011) is 1,841 homes - an average of 180 per year. The UDP identifies that 176 affordable homes are being provided per year.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
3.2.5 Economic Development A SWOT analysis (SQW, 2004) of Walsall undertaken to inform the development of the Borough’s strategic framework51 identified that the Borough:
has a higher productivity rate compared to the regional average with total output per head growing faster than regional and national rates has a high dependence on manufacturing and limited presence of knowledge-based and high value-added sectors - although a higher proportion of its workforce is employed in knowledge- based manufacturing compared to the regional and national average - particularly in Medium High Tech manufacturing has an extremely limited presence in identified growth sectors - although it is currently enjoying growth in its high skilled knowledge based services sector - with higher than average regional growth predicted in business services sectors 2001-2011 a greater number of industrial and business premises compared to the rest of the Black Country the lowest rate of FDI in the Black Country
Barriers to growth identified to be addressed include: low levels of consumer demand in the local economy which have limited the competitiveness of the Borough as a location for retail and leisure investment, poor quality land supply and infrastructure and low educational attainment. Key priorities identified are to enhance the quality of the Borough’s infrastructure and to regenerate the Town Centre as a key wealth generator for the Borough.
The majority of the Borough’s key employment sites are located in the vicinity of Junction 10 although a couple of additional key employment sites are to the north east of the Borough in the vicinity of Brownhills and Aldridge town centres. The Borough’s best quality employment sites are located:
at Newtown on the north eastern periphery Aldridge District Centre Reedswood Walsall Enterprise Park Pleck Glassworks site East of M6 Junction 10 James Bridge
Walsall Urban Regeneration Company - announced in December 2003 - has bold ambitions to raise the town's profile and transform the basis of its economic and cultural viability. The UDC’s area of operation covers 780 hectares of the Borough - including the Town Centre; the Waterways development; Darlaston Strategic Development Area - offering a prime location for business development next to the M6; Pleck and Alumwell with its major PFI scheme to expand the Manor Hospital; Green Lane and Leamore Business Parks. A masterplan is being commissioned to provide a strategic framework, highlighting the canal network as a major artery of Walsall's regeneration over the next 10 to 15 years. (This is not expected to be available until Year end 2004). 7.2.15
51 SQW (2004) ‘Stepping Up for Change: a new Strategy and Action Plan for developing Walsall’
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
3.3 Sandwell
3.3.1 Housing Strategy The strategic housing aims of Sandwell reflect concern about these issues. These aims are:
To improve the quality of residential environments within the Borough To improve the range, quality and choice of housing available To bring all social housing to a decent standard by 2010 To ensure that no one is deprived by virtue of where they live To achieve a step change in the quality and performance of housing services.
The overall analysis of the housing market with the housing strategy is that
Low demand is generic and extends across tenures Low income and low levels of investment have resulted in restricted choices and high level of disrepair House prices are low in a band of neighbourhoods which correspond with low demand in the council stock Retaining BME communities will be vital to the future of Sandwell over the next 20 years.
Sandwell’s Community Plan (the ‘Sandwell Plan’) identifies objectives to improve the existing stock, promote choice of accommodation in terms of tenure and affordability and promote mixed-use developments. Key issues are:
Dealing with the stock of unfit dwellings which are concentrated in pre-1919 terrace housing representing 26% of the total stock. The Council is committed to a holistic approach to area- based regeneration to address housing renewal needs.
Achieving a better mix of housing supply, by reducing the surplus of one bedroom flats and larger properties of insufficient quality to attract demand and including higher quality and larger homes. Creation of mixed communities is seen as important through a new housing mix – particularly on Council-owned sites
Out-movement from the Borough (greater than any of the other Black Country Boroughs) – to the “more affluent” Black Country boroughs – although (young) professionals are being attracted into the Urban Living area
There is substantial developer interest in the Borough and the number of completions are identified as outstripping the Black Country average (doubled from 500/600 to 1,100 per annum including on windfall and difficult sites – e.g. 900 homes being built on the Cape Brewery site in the Urban Living area) – with houses being sold to graduates and professionals.
3.3.2 Housing Investment Programme In terms of its own stock Sandwell has pursued the ALMO option to enable it to meet the decent homes standard by 2010. However the Housing Needs and Demand Study (2002) indicated a projected surplus of 2,000 social rented units, with this surplus being mainly confined to unpopular
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 flats. The Council has therefore decided that whilst upgrading the accommodation that it will retain, it will also address the imbalance in supply by reducing the numbers of unpopular property types such that its overall stock will fall from 35,000 to 28,500 by 2010. The ALMO will generate sufficient resources to meet the decent homes standard. However the HRA Business Plan also pointed out that “the scale of oversupply of social housing in Sandwell’s local housing market and the extent of private sector renewal required means that addressing the investment needs of the Council’s housing stock alone will not be sufficient”.
The Asset Management Strategy for the Council’s stock includes taking a consistent approach to rank priorities and secure funding for all programmes, including tackling obsolete homes through clearance. The stock condition survey completed in 2003 found that 74% of the stock did not meet the decent homes standard. The Council calculated that the cost of meeting the standard was £535m, of which £411m would be sought from Government through establishment of an ALMO. Whilst the resources required for the DHS will be made available to the ALMO, it should be noted that the survey said that “considerable financing will be required to improve landscaping, security and communal lighting to improve landscaping, off street parking, security and communal lighting to ensure the long-term sustainability of properties and estates”. Expenditure is also required on aids and adaptations for disabled persons and the clearance of obsolete homes. The Council’s Decent Homes Strategy also reports tenant demand for additional improvements including porches and canopies, extensions and conservatories, ground floor WCs and walk in showers and well maintained lifts in blocks of flats.
Property types identified as problematic are high rise flats, bed-sits, non-traditional and designated defective homes. Whilst the latter are reported to be in many cases very popular the costs of ‘reinstating’ them is high and has to be evaluated against alternative options such as replacing them or removing them. There is a three stage decision making process to planning and prioritising investment to achieve the DHS as follows:
1. Community sustainability test – asking, is the home in a sustainable location? 2. Value for money tests – asking, is the home is a sustainable best value investment? 3. Decent Homes Standard – asking, is the home decent already and will it be so by 2010 without investment?
In the case of larger interventions to turn around communities not considered sustainable, such as Greets Green NDC and the Urban Living Area investment is part of a multi-faceted approach to improving the sustainability of communities. Housing investment will aim to achieve the DHS in homes that have a long term future and require investment to reach the standard.
3.3.3 ALMO Delivery Plan Sandwell Homes is an ALMO which has secured an allocation of an additional £349m to invest in the stock of Sandwell MBC condition on achieving a 2* rating. Of this £20m is available for environmental works and the remainder for the Decent Homes Standard - with 67% of the stock estimated to be below the standard in April 2004. This is in addition to existing anticipated resources of £183m in the period 2005/06 and 2010/11. The ALMO plans to invest in stock for which there is long term demand whilst reducing the stock in specific areas – through sales, demolition and remodelling, from 35,000 to 28,500 by 2010.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
It is planned to deliver 85% of the programmed spend through strategic partnerships with large firms capable of dealing with £7-10m per year work packages. SMEs will be contracted to deliver specialist works and local work packages. Sandwell Homes sees this as stimulating the construction market and promoting local job opportunities. The peak years in its Delivery Plan are 2006/07 – 2009/10 when approximately £80m will be spent each year.
Sandwell states that it has taken care to ensure that every home in which it invests has a long term future through three housing investment decision making processes
1. An assessment of whether or not the community is sustainable 2. An assessment of whether or not the building is sustainable and its improvement would offer value for money 3. The level and nature of improvements need to reach the DHS
The ALMO will be responsible for the delivery of this programme and the management and day to day maintenance of the stock. The local authority will have housing strategy and regeneration responsibilities, together with commissioning and monitoring, supporting people and private sector housing. It will retain capacity for housing research, analysis, and planning to identify needs and to deliver plans to meet housing and corporate goals. This means that the authority should steer the ALMO’s investment plans in a way that is consistent with housing, corporate and community strategies.
3.3.4 Neighbourhood/Housing Renewal Sandwell’s Neighbourhood Renewal Strategy notes the high levels of deprivation across the Borough rather than just pockets. Neighbourhood renewal activity is focused at the town level in each of the six towns (Rowley Regis, West Bromwich, Smethwick, Tipton, Wednesbury and Oldbury) - with responsibility held by six Town Teams. Provision is made for the development of six town strategies for housing to cover local public and private housing markets and action plans to address housing demand and conditions. Towns Plans have been developed to date for Rowley Regis, West Bromwich and Smethwick.
Six neighbourhood management pilots have been established - one in each of the six towns. Sandwell’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund allocation for 2005/06 is by far the highest of the Black Country authorities’ at £13.773m – reflecting the scale of deprivation in the Borough. This allows for £2.296m of NRF resource for each of the six neighbourhood management pilots (assuming an equal split).
Area based initiatives in the Borough for neighbourhood renewal include:
Investment in the Lyng Urban Village; and Greets Green New Deal for Communities programme
Greets Green New Deal for Communities The Greets Green New Deal for Communities programme plans to target £59.8m of investment on the themes of housing, education, lifelong learning and young people.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The area has a high level of unfitness in the housing stock (11.7% of private homes) – with a concentration in the Edith Street/Chapman Street Housing Assessment area of 200 unfit private sector homes (declared for clearance? – confirm).
An estimated £70m is identified as required to deliver the NDC Housing Plan – over a longer period that the programme lifespan of ten years. The NDC proposes to fund 20% of this investment with 80% levered from other funding sources. The local authorities limited financial capacity to deliver this supported is noted and that funding arrangements will need to be maximised through other sources – with the HMA, private sector developers and housing associations identified. It is hoped that the HMA will provide £8m to £9m over the two-year period 2004/06.
The NDC plans £14m of NDC programme expenditure over the life of the programme (2000-2010) (see Table B.10) on housing and urban form investment with strategic objectives to:
. Tackle unfit and poor quality housing – through substantial clearance and redevelopment/refurbishment. (Approximately £1.18m is identified for home improvement activities for the first seven years of the programme). . Raise the quality and scope for choice of housing through the development of 700 new homes. (Approximately £7.2m has been committed up to 06/07 for the development of new ‘Lifestyle Apartments’ at Hambletts Road). . Achieve new standards of housing and neighbourhood management (with funding for a neighbourhood renewal manager, a housing implementation team, a repairs and maintenance team and support for new council tenants) . Ensure the full and active engagement of residents in decision making . Raise the quality of the physical environment
Table B.10: Planned and Actual Expenditure on Housing and the Urban Form (£000s) 00/01- 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 Total Total Total 03/04 committed actual all (03/04) years 744 750 970 970 3,711 3,931 2,391 13,263 744 14,008 Source: NDC Delivery Plan
3.3.5 Housing Land Supply The RPG target for housing development in the Borough is 18,550 dwellings to 2011. (It should be noted that the UDP review process has identified that demolition rates in the Borough exceed RPG estimates – giving a greater replacement requirement). The UDP identifies sufficient housing supply to meet this target - approximately two-thirds of which is identified capacity. A high proportion of these are on windfall sites – including difficult to develop sites. A key issue for the Borough is the quality of the land supply and environment for residential development.
According to the proposals map, housing sites are scattered around the Borough - with some concentrations in the central western part of the Borough around Tipton and the metro corridor. Other concentrations can be identified at the north eastern edge of the Borough (Wednesbury) and in Smethwick/Cape Hill.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
A key issue for the Borough is resolve environmental quality issues - with the Home Ownership Study indicating that three quarters of those expecting to move again would leave Sandwell - most commonly to obtain a better environment. A particular issue is conflicts between residential and industrial uses. A process of reallocating industrial land for residential uses is being undertaken. Where conflicts still occur, other mechanisms to mitigate these will need to be implemented.
Housing affordability is a key issue in Sandwell - with the 2000 Sandwell Housing Market Study identifying that over 40% of households had gross annual incomes of less than £10,000 - meaning that many households are unable to purchase a home even at the lower end of the open market. The UDP identifies a need for 4,800 affordable homes to be provided in the Borough between 1998 and 2011.
A key issue for the Borough is to supply types of affordable housing that meet people’s needs. The Housing Market Study 2000 indicated that the supply of social housing (34% of the Borough’s housing stock) exceeded demand because the type of accommodation did not meet needs of households (e.g. extended BME households and vulnerable households) and because of environmental factors which reduce demand (e.g. environmental quality, lack of jobs and poor educational facilities).
3.3.6 Economic Development An Economic Development Strategy is currently being prepared for Sandwell (as the current Strategy is now five years old). The Sandwell Plan is the current information source identified for Sandwell’s Economic Development policies. The ‘State of Sandwell’ report used to inform the development of the Plan identifies:
40% of Sandwell’s resident workers work outside Sandwell The local economy is slowly diversifying and the Borough lags a long way behind the national average as regards service industry jobs - although employment figures for West Bromwich ward indicate some success in development the role of the town centre Local employment has contracted with some areas experiencing high job losses (e.g. Tipton Green which lost 27% of jobs 1998-2003) Concentrations of particularly high rates of unemployment in some areas (e.g. between Smethwick and West Bromwich)
Sandwell is identified as being a key employment base for the sub-region – employing people living outside the Borough.
Most of the Borough is within the ‘Arc of Opportunity’ Regeneration Zone.
The UDP identifies the following strategic regeneration areas for the Borough:
West Bromwich town centre - to physically restructure as the main town centre in the Borough for economic investment (Master plan) – focused on retail and employment uses (rather than residential). Alongside adjacent neighbourhood renewal initiatives - the Lyng Housing Estate and Greets Green New Deal for Communities. There would a tension between the proposed Metro link between Wednesbury and Brierley Hill and plans for the development of the Borough’s town centres.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Hill Top - to maximise the access opportunities created by the Black Country New Road and the Midland Metro. A large area are the core of the conurbation identified as a significant opportunity for brownfield economic development thereby alleviating pressure for peripheral development.
M5 Junction 1 in North Smethwick - identified as a location for major leisure development to complement existing leisure uses as a new focus for the Borough.
M5 Junction 2 (south of Oldbury town centre) identified as a site for industrial development. Considering leisure development on Birchley Playing Field site.
Bescot site on northern edge of Borough (Walsall) identified for freight interchange or industrial use although road access limited.
Land on the edge of Oldbury town centre (West Bromwich street) identified for leisure development.
Sandwell focuses on the re-establishment of West Bromwich town centre - which has lost out as a comparison shopping centre to Walsall, Birmingham and Merry Hill - as the principle centre in the Borough in a network of centres, and the focus for major new trip-generating developments (retail, leisure, entertainment and commercial).
The Urban Regeneration Company for Sandwell (RegenCo) has prepared a Masterplan for West Bromwich (see documentation from AIF work) and a Sandwell Regeneration Framework. (Business Plan not available at the time of writing).
3.3.7 Urban Form Sandwell has an unusual and complex urban form - developed around the Borough’s six towns: Sandwell, Oldbury, West Bromwich, Tipton, Wednesbury and Smethwick - with transport corridors cutting through the Borough (metro and rail east to west and the M5 north to south). As a result of this complex urban form, a key issue for the Borough to resolve is conflict between different land uses - industrial/employment, transport and residential. Supplementary Planning Guidance for urban design has been produced to address this issue and Section 106 agreements are being used to deliver higher quality urban spaces.
7.2.16 3.4 Dudley
3.4.1 Housing Strategy Dudley’s Housing Strategy (February 2004) includes
Improvement of housing conditions to reach the Decent Homes Standard Maximising the use of existing stock e.g. reducing number of empty homes Increasing the supply of affordable housing.
The Borough’s recent Options Appraisal led to the decision to retain the stock.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Housing needs analysis is that of 12,400 homes to be provided in 1991 – 2011, there were 5,300 still to be provided. This is reflected an updated housing needs survey in 2002 which concluded that 30% of this new provision should be affordable. It states that “it has to be recognised that the 1998 study and its subsequent review [2002] concentrated on the housing market specific to Dudley and took little account of the wider regional and sub-regional housing markets”. The Study said that affordable housing need can best be met by social rented housing, with a small proportion of shared ownership.
It assesses priority as being to alleviate a shortage of family housing, especially that for larger households, and two bedroom bungalow accommodation for the elderly. It prefers to meet demand for young single person’s accommodation (under 29 years of age) by adjustments to lettings policy and the redesignation of existing stock. It argues that such development is dependent on external grants as existing capital resources are needed to meet the Decent Homes Standard (this would change if the Option Appraisal process were to attract extra funding to meet this standard).
Since 1995 Dudley has cleared six high-rise blocks of flats and three large complexes of low-rise flats and maisonettes that were unpopular, difficult to let and had high maintenance costs. The sites have been redeveloped for a mix of market and affordable family housing. The strategy states that a similar is being considered for “an area” of less popular inter-war housing where partial clearance and redevelopment could be combined with environmental improvement in the part where stock is retained.
The strategy includes commitment to a further housing needs survey in conjunction with the RHP “to take into consideration cross boundary housing markets”.
27% (6,920 properties) of the Council’s stock is assessed as ‘non decent’ with a significant number of additional homes becoming non decent from 2009 onwards. The strategy estimates £357m is required by 2010 towards an investment requirement of £398m (consisting of £163m catch up repairs and further investment needed of £235m). These figures cover other investment requirements beyond the DHS aimed at increasing ‘liveability of estates’ such as environmental works and community safety. Very little of the RSL stock is below the decent homes standard. Projections of the shortfall in resources for works to the Council stock were £290m by 2010.
The strategy reports that 4.9% of the private sector stock is unfit, rising to 11.6% amongst pre-1919 dwellings. These account for 25% of the unfit properties in Dudley. The level of unfitness in properties occupied by BME households is nearly twice the Dudley average at 8.4%. The cost of remedial works to deal with unfitness and disrepair are reported to be £68m, with an estimated shortfall of £32m after taking into account the ability of owner occupiers to fund repair works themselves. However it also comments that widespread grant assistance has undermined homeowners’ responsibilities to use their own resources as a result of a “grant culture which passes the burden of responsibility from the individual to the local authority”. The private sector programme of £1m (2002/03) is “no out of scale and has little impact on the overall problem” with annual expenditure of £25m over 10 years being required to deal with the properties than are currently unsatisfactory.
The strategy reports that the low private sector vacancy rate of 1.1% does not appear to be concentrated in any particular areas and “indicates that Dudley remains a popular borough with a
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 reasonably buoyant housing market and little, if any, experience of the market failure and abandonment experienced by many other metropolitan areas”.
The new private sector housing strategy is designed to shift the balance of expenditure for a small number of high cost grants to supporting and enabling home owners to raise private finance and release equity to fund repairs, in conjunction with some small grants.
3.4.2 Housing Investment Programme In 2003/4 the Council’s HRA Business Plan estimated that its own stock required £162m in “capital type” investment. It included in these calculations works to 85% of its stock with only 3,500 requiring no such works. No demolition was planned and 239 units would be converted by 2012/13. In the period 2003/4 – 2012/13 it planned to spend £197m on “capital type” investment, of which £49m would be related to making dwellings decent. It showed no expenditure in this period in relation to newly arising need, this approach would leave a substantial investment backlog by 2012/13, albeit that the DHS was met. `
3.4.3 Neighbourhood Renewal Dudley identifies 23 priority neighbourhoods for neighbourhood renewal activity:
Beacon Wallbrook Oval Shadwell Wren’s nest and priority Kate’s Hill Abberley St./Flood St. Sledmere Woodside Lodge Farm Saltwells Fens Pool/The Wallows Norwood Hawbush Chapel St. Enville St. Steppingstones Lye/Clay Croft Tanhouse Fatherless Barn Shell Corner Halesowen Central/Highfields
The Borough’s Neighbourhood Renewal Fund allocation is the smallest of the Black Country authorities for 2005/06 at £1.521m (£66,000 per priority neighbourhood assuming an even split of resource).
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
3.4.4 Housing Land Supply The RPG11 target for housing supply in Dudley is 12,950. The UDP Revised Deposit 2002 identifies land supply for 12,943 homes. The Borough has identified strategic locations for housing land supply around the Borough - identified as key to facilitating urban renewal in the Borough. More than half the minimum housing capacity associated with these sites relates to town centre allocations in each of the Borough’s four main centres (Brierley Hill Town Centre, Dudley Town Centre, Stourbridge and Halesowen).
The Borough introduced a phased approach to allocating housing sites for development in the Revised Deposit UDP 2002 - with two phases of land release - 2001-2007 and 2007-2011. These strategic allocations are divided into these two phases based on their viability - with infrastructure provision, access and contamination taken into account. Phase 1 allocations relate to each of the Town Centres, Wordsley Hospital, Lower Gornal, Hawne Colliery (Halesowen), Brierley Hill Crystal Works, Netherton, Wolverhampton Street and Thorns Road, Brierley Hill.
It is estimated that over 90% of housing completions will be achieved on previously developed land (RPG target is 98%).
Advice on the revision of RPG11 identified that some 4,400 of Dudley’s housing requirement should be for social housing - of which 2,800 has been provided. The Plan provides for the provision of 1,600 units of affordable housing on suitable sites
A key issue for housing land supply in the Black Country is the quality of the land supply and urban environment - with much of the brownfield land supply being land reconverted from former industrial uses.
3.4.5 Economic Development Dudley’s Economic Strategy (2003/04) notes that:
The service sector accounted for 72.7% of employment in 2001 and according to Cambridge Econometrics will continue to be a major employer in Dudley - reflected in an increase in employment of 1.7% in the last four years and expected to continue with major development opportunities in Brierley Hill, Castle Gate, Castle Hill, Claughton and King Street/Flood Street The Black Country Survey 2001 concluded that of the four local authority districts, 24% of employers in Dudley reported the highest increase in market share (compared to the lowest in Walsall at 18%) - although average earnings are the second lowest in the Black Country (after Walsall) Dudley has the highest number of registered businesses and largest volume of newly registered businesses of the Black Country authorities
Employment land in the Borough has been identified as part of a central employment zone at the core of the Borough including: Castle Gate, Castle Hill, Claughton, Dudley Town and Brierley Hill. Particular actions to improve the economic infrastructure of Dudley are:
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The development of Brierley Hill as the Borough’s strategic town centre and principle location for employment, commerce, shopping and leisure activity - with the Regeneration Area investment plans to develop a mixed-use environment linking Brierley Hill High Street, Merry Hill and the Waterfront - to create around 10,000 new jobs
The proposed Brierley Hill Transport Scheme
Development of Claughton as a Business Park
A key issue for the Borough is the relationship between its town centres with the regeneration of Brierley Hill Waterfront and Merry Hill shopping centre as central locations for employment, commerce, retail and leisure activity. Proposed extension of the metro route to Brierley Hill would further strengthen the role of Brierley Hill/Merry Hill as an employment centre in the Black Country. The role of Merry Hill is being decided.
3.5 Telford & Wrekin
3.5.1 Housing Strategy The mission statement of the housing strategy is to provide “access for all to good quality, affordable and healthy housing in order to promote community and individual well being’. The strategy has four key aims
To ensure that housing needs are met particularly the need for social and affordable housing To support regeneration particularly in South Telford and to improve the quality of housing To promote housing choice and to prevent homelessness To facilitate independent living and to support vulnerable people
The first aim - to ensure that housing needs are met particularly the need for social and affordable housing, involves the Council working with its partners and using its planning powers to secure the provision of social and affordable housing whilst also making the most effective use of existing housing. One of the partners is the stock transfer RSL, Wrekin Housing Trust which owns 81% of social housing in the Borough.
The second aim - To support regeneration particularly in South Telford and to improve the quality of housing is based on an analysis that that in terms of housing quality the earliest new town estates are in need of comprehensive regeneration. It describes these areas, based on Radburn layout and “of questionable construction standard” as now displaying clear signs of market failure, including abandonment. The priorities within area of the strategy are:
To demolish unpopular deck access flats on Woodside and declare a housing renewal area on part of this estate To undertake comprehensive regeneration of Woodside and other estates in South Telford To improve housing standards in all sectors, particularly in parts of the private sector and certain geographical areas – the area has some relatively low price private sector housing and “a significant and growing private sector, some of which is of questionable standard” To develop a housing renewal strategy
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The third aim - to promote housing choice and to prevent homelessness, includes priorities to work with partners to introduce a choice based lettings scheme, the development of a homelessness strategy and the development of housing advice services, to prevent homelessness and help local people to access decent and affordable homes.
The fourth aim - to facilitate independent living and to support vulnerable people, has as its priorities supporting vulnerable people to live independently in their own homes and the successful implementation of the Supporting People programme.
Telford has a significant element of good quality housing built in the last 10-15 years and is seeing additional building of 1,000 homes per year. At the same time the Council is concerned about the growing unmet maintenance and disrepair in the private sector. It estimates that 2,500 mostly private sector properties are unfit and that around 5,000 properties in the private sector are in substantial disrepair. These dwellings include a significant number on what were previously social housing estate where the strategy comments that “there is major concern locally about the long term sustainability of some of these estates”. The majority of homes on these estates have been sold to owner occupiers and private landlords, who are in many cases failing to invest sufficiently in maintaining their properties.
3.5.2 Housing Investment Programme Resources needed for the maintenance and improvement of former Council stock are no longer channelled through the local authority. The Business Plan of the Wrekin Housing Trust aims to meet the required repairs and improvement work which, prior to transfer, were estimated to be £41m. Some of its properties are considered suitable for conversion or redevelopment, including some PRC homes with high repair and modernisation costs. It is engaged as a partner with the local authority and other RSLs operating in the Borough to achieve regeneration in South Telford.
3.5.3 Wrekin Housing Trust Investment Plans Wrekin Housing Trust was established to take over ownership 13,000 dwellings from Telford & Wrekin District Council in 1999. The trust was aimed to maintain and improve the stock transferred to it and eventually to carry out remodelling and small specialist infill developments which would improve the quality of life. It has spent £77m in 1999 – 2004 on planned maintenance and refurbishment. It has a long term aim to be a growing business developing both within and beyond the area. It has recently established the Wrekin Housing Group with a structure designed to facilitate development and growth.
The Trust has provided approximately 50 additional homes to date. The stated intention of the Council to fund 500 additional homes from its transfer receipts has not come about. The Trust says that “it [the Council] has fallen spectacularly short of this target. This is the only significant [transfer] promise to tenants not kept”.
WHT has a loan facility of £196m sufficient to cover spending commitments made at the time of stock transfer together with the continuing costs of managing and maintaining the stock. Projected borrowings are now approximately £150m. The Trust figures estimate that as at April 2006 35% of its stock will not meet the DHS and has identified the costs of reaching the standards by 2010. These are
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 estimated at current procurement rates to be at a cost of £51m, although an external advisor has quantified to cost at £32m.
The Trust reports major concern with the regeneration needs of the former New Town estates in South Telford. It states that parts of these estates demonstrate local housing market failure and high levels of property abandonment. The Trust, English Partnerships, the Housing Corporation and the Council are working in partnership on a major regeneration project at ‘Courts in Woodside’, an estate of deck access flats, which are to be demolished and replaced with ‘high quality homes’.
The Trust sees new social housing development as being insufficient to met what is required, with a programme of 150 SHG funded units across all RSLs in 2003/04 and the Trust having a programme for 252 units in the period 2004 – 2009, mainly arising from refurbishment and renewal schemes in Woodside, Dothill and the Three Avenues.
Current and recent development projects include:
Three avenues Project, St Georges – demolition of 33 bungalows and construction of 46 new bungalows to Lifetime Homes Standards Mount Road, Darley – building of 11 rent bungalows and 15 shared ownership properties for sale Pinfold Croft, Waters Upton – village scheme building 4 flats for rent and 5 shared ownership homes Lancaster Avenue, Darley – 11 self contained supported housing flats providing temporary accommodation Blakemore Flats, Brookside – 40 small one bed flats converted it 15 apartments together with 8 houses for sale.
Established RSLs with development activities underway are Bromford Carinthia HA, Beth Johnson HA and Bournville Village Trust. Bromford is an extremely active and successful development, has 1,000 properties in the area and a preferred partner for the Council. Beth Johnson has 600 units in Telford with a strong reputation for development and which acts as development agents for a number of RSLs, including Wrekin Housing Trust. The Bourneville Village Trust has 600 units, mostly acquired former New Town stock in Telford and is creating a ‘new Bourneville’ at Lightmoor in Telford.
3.5.4 Neighbourhood Renewal The Borough has a policy of six ‘priority neighbourhoods’: Arleston College, Hadley, Donnington/Donnington Wood, Malinslee and Langley, Brookside, and Sutton Hill/Woodside. Work is being undertaken to identify small neighbourhoods within the current policy.
3.5.5 South Telford The Woodside estate is the main focus for neighbourhood renewal activity - as the most problematic of the four South Telford Radburn estates - with numerous problems of crime and community safety issues – with an unsustainable housing stock. At the time of the Census, 52% of households were owner occupiers (a fall of 8% since the previous Census) and 11% privately renting (compared to 3% previously).
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
The area represents a concentration of social problems in the Borough with high unemployment (11.3% in 2001), concentration in lower paid employment, poor health, and high crime rates. The quality of the environment is poor as is access to facilities.
Recent options appraisal undertaken for the area (Bentilee Community Housing Ltd., Aprili 2004) on behalf of the Woodside Regeneration Partnership52 identified a preferred option of remodelling for value for money. Other options considered (other than do nothing) were:
Demolish the ‘Courts’ (usually residents’ top priority) – would achieve demolition of the worst, most unpopular stock but not wider scheme objectives for Woodside (including community safety, liveability, environmental quality, housing quality and future sustainability) Deliver catch up improvements and maintain – again, would not deliver the wider objectives for the area Remodel with infill development – with costs and risks – due to larger scale demolition and rebuild involved – offering lower value for money compared to the remodel only option
A 7-10 year partnership programme involving the Borough, English Partnerships, the Housing Corporation the Wrekin Housing Trust, Advantage West Midlands and the Government Office for the West Midlands (European Regional Development Funding) worth around £73.5m of public sector investment (plus an estimated £100m private sector leverage) is identified for the area. Planned activities include:
acquisition, demolition and replacement of stock; improvements to decent homes standard; and remodelling of the infrastructure and public realm - including provision of a new road link to Madeley town centre.
Key issues for the Woodside programme are:
how nearby housing developments led by English Partnerships (Kettley Millennium Village, Litemore etc) impact on Woodside and an agreement has been reached on how to prevent people being ‘sucked out’ of Woodside by these schemes.
The Housing Corporation’s view that HMR funds will be used for housing acquisitions and demolitions – rather than mainstream Housing Corporation funding (Housing Corporation funding has been used to date)
It is hoped that funding will become available through the HMA to improve conditions in the remaining South Telford Radburn-designed housing estates: Woodside, Brookside, South Hill and Malinslee.
3.5.6 Housing Land Supply The RPG target for new housing development in the Borough is 13,300 units from 2001 to 2010 (at an average of 1,300 units per annum). SWQ53 identified that at traditional densities, the available land
52 Bentilee Community Housing Ltd. (April 2004) ‘ Woodside Regeneration Project Options Appraisal’ 53 SQW (2004) ‘Telford & Wrekin Economic Development Strategy: SWOT Analysis’
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1 would only accommodate some 50% of the required units - although the required number could be delivered if densities are raised in accordance with Government policy (to between 30 and 50 units per hectare). The majority of the land supply is located in Telford (97% in 1995).
RPG annual targets beyond 2011 are reduced by nearly 50% to 700 units per annum - representing the policy shift in the Regional Spatial Strategy towards concentration of development on the Major Urban Areas. SQW identify that new housing land capacity will need to be identified to deliver these target - by bringing forward key brownfield sites (e.g. Redland Quarry, Blockley, Clay Quarry), identification of further brownfield sites, “land swaps” of employment land and windfall sites. English Partnerships are bringing forward major developments which are expected to have a significant impact on housing numbers (at Lightmoor, Lawley, Woodside and East Ketley).
SQW note a substantial slow-down in the rate of housing development in the Borough in 2003/06 (600 units) since a peak of over 1000 completions in 1999/00. This is attributed primarily to both the national slowdown in housing development and the review of English Partnership sites which delayed the release of housing land. (English Partnerships own some 90% of development land in the Borough).
The Wrekin Local Plan (1995-2006) adopted in 2000 identities that the majority of the District’s housing stock is of recent construction although in the established settlements there are some pockets of pre-1919 housing - together with larger areas of pre-war housing. A major issue for the Borough is the condition of the older stock - particularly the Radburn-layout estates in South Telford (Woodside, Brookside, South Hill and Malinslee) - which has been recognised within the Regional Housing Strategy as a priority area for renewal.
As identified in SQW’s report, social housing makes up about 50% of the housing stock (now owned by the Wrekin Housing Trust) - much of which is in disrepair, with 2,500 homes identified as being statutorily unfit. In addition, some 5,000 private sector homes are assessed as being in need of substantial repair. However, the Borough also includes some high quality market housing.
The Wrekin Local Plan 1995-2006 identifies that the most acute need in the Telford and Wrekin District in terms of affordable housing - is for social housing. This includes cheap, small units to buy (low-cost market housing) as well as new social housing which are rented or part-owned. The Council’s target is that 32% of dwellings are available for rent or shared ownership via an RSL.
Targets for affordable housing supply in Telford identified in the Wrekin Local Plan (1995-2006) are 203 homes in total - in South East Hadley and The Grooms, Wellington. A key issue in securing low cost-market housing and social housing identified in the Plan is the special position of English Partnerships as the dominant owner of housing land in the Borough. The Local Plan identifies a lower threshold for negotiating affordable housing provision in Telford (sites of 0.5 hectares or 15 dwellings) given the special circumstances of the area. A key issue for the sites identified for affordable housing identifies in the Plan is the need for significant funding to reclaim the sites to an acceptable standard for redevelopment and the traffic management implications of the sites.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
3.5.7 Economic Development Telford is identified in the Regional Spatial Strategy as a sub-regional focus for development (including housing) on the basis of its potential to attract new investment. RPG identifies Telford as a strategic focus for major retail, leisure and office developments. Designation of the Wolverhampton- Telford High Technology Corridor recognises Telford’s potential to develop high-technology and high value added activities - particularly building on the Borough’s existing polymer engineering and ICT sector base.
The Borough’s own vision is for Telford to be re-established as a major sustained growth point in the region (in terms of population and economic activity) - with a vision of a diversified economy by 2020 with strength in certain knowledge sector industries (value added manufacturing), certain services and an expanded workforce of 110,000 individuals. Although the Borough’s URC there is a generally recognised need to define and clarify Telford’s role in the wider regional and sub-regional context (Telford First Business Plan).
A recent SWOT analysis undertaken for the Borough (SQW, 200454) identifies economic projections55 on the basis of continuing trends which indicate annual growth rates of 1.2% in employment (14,000 net jobs) and 3.4% in output between 2002 and 2015. However, the analysis also identifies the vulnerability of the Borough’s economy - to central government policy change (with nearly half of the net jobs created coming from ‘computing services’ believed to be largely driven by the expansion of EDS driven by changes to the Inland Revenue’s business) and the trend towards shifting manufacturing production (automotive and electronics) overseas.
The study also identifies the major slow down in inward investment to the Borough from a very high rate of attraction of 1,500 companies over 20 years. Whilst the Borough has excess supply of employment land, offers a good quality environment, low wages and good internal access, it is identified as struggling to retain competitive advantage for inward investment. This is linked to low unemployment, limited access to London and the national motorway network (M6 congestion), a lack of affordable broadband connection in some industrial areas and a lack of Regional Selective Assistance Grants compared to Wales and the Black Country. Competition from new regional employment sites elsewhere - particularly the Wobaston Road 90 hectare employment park north of Wolverhampton is also identified.
The strategic framework developed for the Borough identifies a focus on seven priority clusters: advanced engineering, polymers, tourism and leisure, ICT, specialist and business services, food and drink and building technologies. The strategy identifies infrastructure developments as having a crucial role in delivering the economic vision for the Borough and proposes to ensure improved links to the national road and rail networks (including an M54-M6 link road), redevelopment of the Borough’s town centres (particularly Telford), ensuring an appropriate supply of commercial premises and sustainable, quality, mixed-tenure housing, and affordable broadband connectivity. The framework also identifies a focus on developing knowledge economy activity - through inward investment and developing the knowledge economy infrastructure, investment in development of the indigenous business base and in workforce skills development.
54 SQW (2004) ‘Telford & Wrekin Economic Development Strategy: SWOT Analysis’ 55 Cambridge Econometrics using the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM)
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Attraction of highly skilled workers (as residents or commuters - the Borough has a high rate of net in-commuting) is identified as key to the development of the Borough’s high tech industrial base. SQW note that the Borough already has high quality executive housing stock and that the housing land supply provides opportunities to create high quality residential environments - although there is a potential gap in housing supply for young professionals which the Borough will seek to address.
Establishment of the Telford First Regeneration Company and restructuring of the Telford Development Agency as an independent economic development company aims to co-ordinate investment priorities towards delivery of the Borough’s economic strategy - amongst participating (English Partnerships, the Borough and AWM) partners and non-participating partners (e.g. the Housing Corporation).
The establishment of the Regeneration Company occurs within the context of a changing role for English Partnerships from development manager to strategic partner. The Regeneration Company will act as the bespoke delivery vehicle for leading physical regeneration activity in the Borough - with a main priority being the re-planning and re-development of Telford Town Centre - as a critical project for driving economic growth. The Regeneration Company Action Plan - including the development strategy and priority projects - are identified as ‘to be completed’.
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area – Phase 1
Table B.11: Private Sector Investment Need to Spend Plans to Spend
Number of Estimated Average Cost Proportion Number of Number of Number of Cost of Amount of unfit private Cost of made fit by as grants proposed proposed proposed loans made sector making fit a result of LA proposed loans by LA loans by grants available dwellings action 2003/4 2005/06 2005/06 third parties 2005/06 2005/6 2005/06 proposed
Dudley 4,982 £28m £5,620 4.0% 112 0 75 £1.1m £0.9m Telford & 1,200 £75m £62,500 11.0% 125 10 30 £0.478m £0.030m Wrekin Sandwell 11,122 £75.2m £6,761 2.95% 430 0 125 £2.747m £1.250m Walsall 4,364 £27.970m £6,409 2.75% 250 0 0 £2.750m 0 Wolverhampton 6,644 £39.8 £5,990 2.0% 484 20 42 £1.060m £0.390m Source: Local Authority Annual Monitoring Returns to ODPM at 01/04/04
Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One
4.0 Monitoring Research & Intelligence Key sources of intelligence identified as being used by the HMA local authorities to inform the urban policy context are as follows:
Housing needs analysis (informs housing strategy and land use planning policies relating to affordable housing supply) Technical reports commissioned by the unitary (Black Country) authorities to inform the UDP review process: urban capacity, housing background, role of local centres etc. (Not having gone through a UDP review process, Telford is unlikely to have benefited from similar studies). Economic intelligence reports to inform preparation of local economic development strategies
Some intelligence sources identified are included in Table B.12.
Table B.12: Key Intelligence Sources Wolverhampton Walsall Sandwell Dudley Telford & Wrekin Economy Prism economic Stepping Up State of Economic Economic futures report for Change – Sandwell Strategy (not SWOT A New Vision Report sourced) analysis for Walsall’s (SQW) Economy Employment (SQW) (2003) (Capacity) Local Study Economic Prospects for Walsall (2002) Urban Urban Urban Capacity Capacity Capacity Study (2002) Study (2002) Local Centres Retail and Shopping and Centres Study Dudley retail centres town centres (due) study
1 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited Black Country Telford Housing Market Renewal Area - Phase One
background background paper paper Housing Housing capacity Housing Housing Housing study; housing needs Needs and Needs survey needs assessment assessment, Demand (1998) housing Study (2002) Housing background Housing background paper capacity paper (2001) study`
2 ECOTEC Research and Consulting Limited