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Online Modeling Tools Assist in Evaluating Postfire Flooding and Erosion Risk

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Online Modeling Tools Assist in Evaluating Postfire Flooding and Erosion Risk ONLINE MODELING TOOLS ASSIST IN EVALUATING POSTFIRE FLOODING AND EROSION RISK Peter Robichaud, Research Engineer, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, Idaho, [email protected]; William Elliot, Research Engineer, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, Idaho, [email protected]; Erin Brooks, Assistant Professor, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, [email protected]; Marianna Dobre, Post-doctoral Fellow, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, [email protected]; Dennis Flanagan, Research Agricultural Engineer, USDA Agricultural Research Service, National Soil Erosion Laboratory, West Lafayette, Indiana, [email protected]; James Frankenburger, Information Technology Specialist, USDA Agricultural Research Service, National Soil Erosion Laboratory, West Lafayette, Indiana, [email protected] Abstract: Postfire assessment teams need erosion modeling tools to quickly assess the risks of elevated runoff and sediment delivery to infrastructure and water resources. Major advancements in our knowledge of postfire assessments, risk analysis and erosion control treatment effectiveness have improved our ability to understand the consequences and outcomes that occur in the postfire environment. Disturbed areas often increase overland flow connectivity degrading water quality and water resource. We have developed accessible and easy-to-use Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) based online models to help forest land managers predict postfire runoff, soil erosion and sediment delivery from disturbed forests and rangelands. These models, the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT), Disturbed WEPP and the Peak Flow Calculator allow users to vary climate, soil texture, local topography, vegetation, and surface cover (burn severity, management activities, etc.). ERMiT is more appropriately used by land managers to predict the probability of postfire sediment delivery for a given storm for hillslopes left untreated and hillslopes treated mulch, seeding, or erosion barriers. The latter model aids in decisions of where, when, and how to apply postfire mitigation treatments. Disturbed WEPP predicts annual runoff and sediment yields from young and old forests, following wildfire, grazing, and timber harvest disturbances. These tools are also available as ERMiT Batch and Disturbed WEPP Batch allowing users to vary input parameters and efficiently compare results in simple spreadsheet output tables. The Peak Flow Calculator allows users to quickly determine peak discharge rates for small watersheds. Online GIS-WEPP BAER Interface is the most recent addition to our suite of user-friendly model platforms. Local topographic, soils, fire effects and climatic variables are seamlessly incorporated into the WEPP Watershed model with point-and-click area selection using online mapping services. These easy to access and easy to use tools assist in making the best use of limited rehabilitation resources and assessing fire effects on soils in conjunction with local climate and watershed characteristics. INTRODUCTION Land management issues related to wildfires and postfire response have become more prominent as the frequency of large wildfires has increased. Resource managers are concerned with both the direct effects of the flame front and the postfire consequences. Postfire peak runoff and erosion can be orders-of-magnitude larger than prefire values due to the loss of surface cover and fire- induced changes in soil properties (Moody et al. 2013). Direct and indirect fire effects impact larger numbers of people as source water for municipal water supplies and community developments are encompassed by areas increasingly at risk for wildfire (Miller et al. 2011). ONLINE MODELING TOOLS Many of our postfire erosion models (http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/fswepp/; Figure 1) were developed as part of a suite of tools (http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/BAERTOOLS/) for use by Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams. The models are fully open to the public and there are no costs associated with their use allowing both public and private specialists access to the same tools. Behind the interfaces, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model, a distributed physically-based hydrology and erosion model (Flanagan and Nearing 1995; Laflen et al. 1997), is the server-based “engine” that processes inputs and creates outputs based on the Forest Service WEPP interfaces. Forest Service WEPP Interfaces WEPP:Road WEPP:Road Batch ERMiT ERMiT batch (download) Disturbed WEPP Disturbed WEPP batch (download) Disturbed WEPP 2012 Water And Sediment Predictor Tahoe Basin Sediment Model FuME (Fuel Management) Rock:Clime Peak Flow Calculator Great Lakes Web Interface Figure 1. Online web page for accessing Forest Service WEPP models (http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/fswepp). ERMiT: The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) predicts the probability of a given depth of runoff and sediment yield from a single rainfall or snowmelt event on unburned, burned, and recovering forest, range, and chaparral hillslopes (Robichaud et al. 2007a; b). ERMiT provides a distribution of single event erosion rates with the likelihood of their occurrence. ERMiT also predicts the sediment yields following mulching, seeding, and installing of log erosion barriers (Figure 2). Sediment Delivery Probability that Event sediment delivery ( ton ac-1 ) sediment yield Year following fire will be exceeded 35 % 1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year Untreated 10.63 4.73 2.1 1.06 0.25 Seeding 10.63 2.87 1.82 1 0.25 Mulch (0.5 ton ac-1) 2.97 2.22 2.1 1.06 0.25 Mulch (1 ton ac-1) 2.06 1.83 2.1 1.06 0.25 Mulch (1.5 ton ac-1) 2.02 1.75 2.1 1.06 0.25 Mulch (2 ton ac-1) 1.97 1.73 2.1 1.06 0.25 0.7 65 Erosion Barriers: Diameter ft Spacing ft Logs & Wattles 7.75 4.21 1.71 0.84 0.15 Figure 2. ERMiT output screen showing various treatment effect on sediment delivery. Disturbed WEPP: Disturbed WEPP predicts annual erosion rates for forest and rangeland hillslopes (Elliot 2013). Disturbed WEPP can simulate a variety of management scenarios, including the effects of wildfire, fuel treatments, timber harvest, and regeneration. The output includes mean annual runoff, erosion rate, sediment yield, and the probability of these occurring. Peak Flow Calculator: Our online interface to the Natural Resource Conservation Service (USDA-NRCS) Curve Number method is used to estimate stream peak flow from small burned watersheds. The rainfall and runoff amounts predicted by ERMiT, other computer programs, or reported in the literature can be used to estimate a curve number for a selected land use condition, which in the case of fire is generally related to the soil burn severity. ERMiT and Disturbed WEPP Batch Spreadsheet Tools: Downloadable batch spreadsheet tools for the ERMiT and Disturbed WEPP interfaces are available (http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/fswepp/batch/bERMiT.html; http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/fswepp/batch/dWb.html). The model runs are carried out on our server, but input scenarios and processing of results are done on the user’s computer with spreadsheet software. These spreadsheets allow users to run ERMiT or Disturbed WEPP for multiple hillslopes simultaneously. Drop down menus and copy/paste features facilitate the process of filling out the input worksheet(s). Online GIS-WEPP BAER: We have developed new beta-release tool that uses the open-source MapServer© online GIS in conjunction with WEPP spatial analysis procedures to allows users to conduct watershed analysis without the need to have a GIS program on their computer or the need to reformat data sets (Frankenberger et al. 2011). The interface uses Google Map images and TOPAZ analysis to define a watershed for simulation with WEPP, based on the USGS seamless DEM. The post-fire burn severity map is the primary input to define the spatial extent of the fire which is used in conjunction with the soil layer, the vegetation layer, and DEMs (Frankenberger et al. 2011; Flanagan et al. 2013). These interfaces do not require advanced GIS skills, such as the downloading and preprocessing of topography, soils, or land cover databases. REFERENCES Elliot, W.J. (2013). Erosion processes and prediction with WEPP technology in forests in the Northwestern U.S. Transactions of the ASABE 56(2), 563–579. Flanagan, D.C., and Nearing, M.A. (1995). USDA-Water Erosion Prediction Project: Hillslope profile and watershed model documentation. US Department of Agriculture, National Soil Erosion Research Laboratory, NSERL Report No. 10. West Lafayette, IN. Flanagan, D.C., Frankenberger, J.R., Cochrane, T.A., Renschler, C.S., and Elliot, W.J. (2013). Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP). Transactions of the ASABE 56(2), 591–601. Frankenberger, J.R., Dun, S., Flanagan, D.C., Wu, J., and Elliot, W.J. (2011) Development of a GIS interface for WEPP model application to Great Lakes forested watersheds. Presented at International Symposium on Erosion and Landscape Evolution, 18–21 September 2011, Anchorage, AK. Paper No. 11139. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineering: St. Joseph, MI. Laflen, J.M., Elliot, W.J., Flanagan, D.C., Meyer, C.R., and Nearing. M.A. (1997). WEPP— Predicting water erosion using a process-based model. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 52(2), 96–102. Miller, M.E., MacDonald, L.H., Robichaud, P.R., and Elliot, W.J. (2011). Predicting post-fire hillslope erosion in forest lands of the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire 20(8), 982–999. Moody, J.A., Shakesby, R.A., Robichaud, P.R., Cannon, S.H., and Martin. D.A. (2013). Current research issues related to post-wildfire runoff and erosion processes. Earth-Science Reviews 122, 10–37. Robichaud, P.R., Elliot, W.J., Pierson, F.B., Hall, D.E., Moffet, C.A., and Ashmun, L.E. (2007a). Erosion risk management tool (ERMiT) user manual, version 2006.01.18. US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-188. Fort Collins, CO. Robichaud, P.R., Elliot, W.J., Pierson, F.B., Hall, D.E., Moffet, C.A., and Ashmun, L.E.
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