Predicting the Mark Six Result
by Lau Tsz Shan
19203578
A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Bachelor of Science (Honors) in Mathematics and Statistics
at
Hong Kong Baptist University
Date
3-1-2021
1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to thank you Dr. Yau Chin Ko Andy for giving guidance, encouragement and advice. For this, I would like to express my sincere thanks and appreciation. I am very grateful for his comments and discussions. Advice given by Dr. Yau Chin Ko Andy has been a great help in my final year project.
_Carrie Lau_
Signature of Student
__Lau Tsz Shan___
Student Name
Department of Mathematics
Hong Kong Baptist University
Date: ___29-12-2020___
2 Table of contents
Abstract------6
1. Introduction------7
1.1 Motivation------7
1.2 Background------7
1.2.1 The Mark Six------7
1.2.2 Hong Kong Jockey Club------7
1.2.3 Type of bets------8
1.2.4 Snowball------10
1.3 Objective------10
2. Data Collection------11
2.1 Network Information------11
3. Software------12
3.1 Excel------12
3.2 C++ Program------12
4. More Data------13
4.1 Bonus Distribution------13
3 Table of contents
5. Data Analysis------14
5.1 Single Number------14
5.2 Region------15
5.3 Odd and Even of the Number------16
5.4 Consecutive Number------17
5.5 Total Number of different periods------18
6. Mark Six Probabilities------19
6.1 The probability of 7 prizes------19
6.2 Expect Value------20
6.3 Goodness of fit test------21
7. Possible ways to predict the result more accurately------23
7.1 Consider odd number first------23
7.2 Do not select more than 3 consecutive numbers------23
7.3 Choose total number is range 91-230------23
7.4 Consider the region of the number------23
4 Table of contents
8. Method to statistic ------24
8.1 Basic Statistics Model------24
8.2 Decision Tree Model------24
9. Program Model------25
9.1 Check the result of number in C++------25
9.1.1 Set “Include” in the file------25
9.1.2 Set Some Guidelines------25
9.1.3 Prediction Mark Six Result------25
9.1.4 Result of Program------26
9.1.5 Example Simulation------26
9.1.6 Accuracy------27
9.2 Predict the result of Mark Six in C++------28
9.2.1 Set Include in the file------28
9.2.2 Example Simulation------28
9.2.3 Accuracy------28
10. Difficulties and Limitation------29
11. Conclusion------30
12. Reference------31
13. Appendix------33
5 Abstract
Estimating or counting the results of matches or lottery is a hot topic in various industries, including the Mark Six. The probability of profit depends on the accuracy of predicting the probability of winning the Mark Six. According to the information provided by the Hong Kong Jockey Club, statistical results can be drawn. This report mainly collects data for statistical analysis and data analysis. Also, we will use the program to create a model for result prediction. The report shows a lot of tables and figures which are related to the statistics of the Mark Six. The report would discuss the data analysis of the Mark Six, the probability of Mark Six, possible ways to predict the result more accurately, the program model and the result derived from the model. In this model, we will know the result of Mark Six is losing money or not. It is possible to win the game. Although we make a statistic based on the past results, we can also increase the probability of winning the lottery.
6 1.Introduction
1.1 Motivation
The mark six is a popular topic in Hong Kong. Many people overspend or even go bankrupt because of buying the mark six. Also, there are many teaching software in the society nowadays. So, I would like to use this teaching software to predict the Mark Six results.
1.2 Background 1.2.1 The Mark six
Mark six is a lottery style game1. In Hong Kong, we can choose 6 numbers in the 49 numbers. Also, it has a seven prize levels. The winning numbers in the Mark Six lottery will be selected 6 numbers and one special number from the lottery machine which the number is 1 to 49. However, there are different types of betting in the Mark Six. There is single entry, multiple entry, banker entry and random entry.
1.2.2 Hong Kong Jockey Club
The Hong Kong Jockey Club is one of the oldest mechanisms in Hong Kong.2 It is a non- profit organization providing horse racing, sporting and betting entertainment in Hong Kong. It holds a government-granted monopoly in providing pari-mutuel betting on horse racing, the Mark Six lottery, and fixed odds betting on overseas football events. The organization is the largest taxpayer in Hong Kong, as well as the largest community benefactor.
1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Six 2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Jockey_Club
7 1.2.3 Types of bets3
In Hong Kong, there are 4 entry in the Mark Six. The unit investment for each Mark Six Entry is $10 with several types of entry available for selection. For Multiple & Banker entries, a partial unit investment of HK$5 will be accepted; all Prizes will be paid based on the fraction that the Partial Unit Investment bears to the Unit Investment. l Single Entry We can choose 6 numbers from 1 to 49
For example, 1+2+3+4+5+6 l Multiple Entry We can choose at least 7 different numbers from 1 to 49. Also, we can choose a partial unit which is 5 HKD per unit investment.
For example, we select the 7 different number which are 1 to 7. It has 7 single entries. 1) 1+2+3+4+5+6 2) 7+2+3+4+5+6 3) 1+7+3+4+5+6 4) 1+2+7+4+5+6 5) 1+2+3+7+5+6 6) 1+2+3+4+7+6 7) 1+2+3+4+5+7
We can see that if we buy $10 per unit, it totally is 70HKD. If we buy $5 per unit, it totally is 35HKD.
3 https://is.hkjc.com/aosbs/help/en/mk6_guide.html
8 Multiple Entry Chance Table:4
Table 1 Multiple Entry Chance Table l Banker Entry We can choose less than or equal to 5 numbers from 1 to 49 as banker(s) and (49- the number(s) of banker) number(s) will be selected as leg(s). Also, we can choose a partial unit which is 5 HKD per unit investment.
For example, we select 3 bankers which are 1, 2 and 3 with 4 leg numbers 4, 5, 6 and 7. The selections are 3 banker and 4 leg number entry as below: Banker(s) Other number selections 1+2+3 4+5+6 1+2+3 4+5+7 1+2+3 4+7+6 1+2+3 7+5+6 Table 2 Example of Banker Entry
We can see that if we buy $10 per unit, it totally is 40HKD. If we buy $5 per unit, it totally is 20HKD.
4 https://is.hkjc.com/aosbs/help/en/mk6_guide.html
9 1.2.4 Snowball If there is no people win the first prize, the money of the first prize of the next term will be increase. Also, it is calling the snowball.
1.3 Objective
In order to increase the chance of winning and reduce the complexity of the Mark Six lottery, the probability of the Mark Six has to be increased. In the current Hong Kong competition, the result of mark six is calculated more accurately through the created model to calculate the Mark Six lottery data. Also, the main purpose is not losing the money.
10 2. Data Collection
2.1 Network Information
There are many online mass media reports on lottery, Internet and academic articles on gambling theory. Also, Hong Kong Jockey Club has data of the Mark Six from July 4, 2002, 49 lottery numbers were adopted (ballot number 02/053) to December 8, 2020. (ballot number 20/024), a total of 2617 Mark Six data. These data include the number of periods, data, the name of snowball, total amount of bets, the result of 7 numbers, the number of prizes and winning bets for each bet from the first prize to the seventh prize.
11 3. Software
3.1 Excel
We can use the excel to collect the data of Mark Six. Excel has lots of powerful program in mathematics and statistic, such as data analysis, chart, document, etc. It is a spreadsheet program5, there are many cells in the excel. It contains a point of the data or other document on each cell. We can find the information more easily and draw the data from changing information. The reason we choose to use because it is very useful to draw the table or figure for the data. Figure1 Excel Logo
3.2 C++ Program
We can use the C++ Program to create the code to predict the result of the Mark Six. C++ is a programming language. 6It can design with a bias toward system programming and embedded, resource- constrained software and large systems. The reason we choose C++ Program to predict the result because it is easy to express and useful to know the predict result.
Figure2 C++ Logo
5 https://itconnect.uw.edu/learn/workshops/online-tutorials/microsoft-office-2010/microsoft-excel-2010/ 6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C%2B%2B
12 4. More Data
4.1 Bonus Distribution7
We should know the bonus distribution of the Mark Six firstly, we know that there are 7 division prizes in the Mark Six.
Prize Prize Fund Allocations 1st Division Prizes 45% x (Prize Fund – total amount payable to 4th, 5th, 6th & 7th Division Prizes – Snowball Deduction) / winning units
2nd Division Prizes 15% x (Prize Fund – total amount payable to 4th, 5th, 6th & 7th Division Prizes – Snowball Deduction) / winning units
3rd Division Prizes 40% x (Prize Fund – total amount payable to 4th, 5th, 6th & 7th Division Prizes – Snowball Deduction) / winning units
4th Division Prizes HK$9,600 each
5th Division Prizes HK$640 each
6th Division Prizes HK$320 each
7th Division Prizes HK$40 each
Table 3 Six lottery bonus distribution
7 https://bet.hkjc.com/marksix/userinfo.aspx?lang=en&file=prizes_fund.asp
13 5. Data Analysis
5.1 Single Number
Following is the distribution of different single number which the number of times it appeared over the past 19 years, we can see that which number appears most frequently. In order to facilitate our next statistics.
450
400
350
300
250
200 Quantity
150
100
50
0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Number
Figure 3 The number of times different numbers appear
No. Prob. No. Prob. No. Prob. No. Prob. No. Prob. No. Prob. 1 0.1406 10 0.1563 19 0.1272 28 0.1475 37 0.1437 46 0.1353 2 0.1425 11 0.1379 20 0.1456 29 0.1410 38 0.1441 47 0.1399 3 0.1372 12 0.1418 21 0.1406 30 0.1536 39 0.1349 48 0.1425 4 0.1486 13 0.1498 22 0.1536 31 0.1395 40 0.1425 49 0.1593 5 0.1402 14 0.1456 23 0.1353 32 0.1402 41 0.1349 6 0.1475 15 0.1383 24 0.1528 33 0.1494 42 0.1460 7 0.1448 16 0.1402 25 0.1337 34 0.1464 43 0.1402 8 0.1383 17 0.1429 26 0.1368 35 0.1475 44 0.1387 9 0.1486 18 0.1410 27 0.1372 36 0.1391 45 0.1418 Table 4 The Probability of different number
14 5.2 Region
Following is the distribution of the total number occurs of different region over the past 19 years, (Region1: Number 1-7, Region2: Number 8-14, Region3: Number 15-21, Region4: Number 22-28, Region5: Number 29-35, Region6: Number 36-42, Region7: Number 43-49) We can see that which region appears most frequently. In order to facilitate our next statistics.
2680
2660
2640
2620
2600 Total Number
2580
2560
2540 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Region
Figure 4 The total number of different Region
15 5.3 Odd and Even of the Number
The following is the distribution of the total number of Odd number and Even Number from 1-49 over the past 19 years. We can see that odd or even number which one is the most sides. In order to facilitate our next statistics.
9250
9200
9150
9100 Total Number
9050
9000
8950 odd even The Properties of the Number
Figure 5 The Total Number of Odd and Even Number
16 5.4 Consecutive Number
Following the distribution of the consecutive number (2,3,4 and 5numbers) over the past 19 years. We can see that how many consecutive numbers is the most often. In order to facilitate our next statistics.
1800 1658 1600
1400
1200
1000 841
quantity 800
600
400
200 105 12 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Consecutive number
Figure 6 Consecutive Number
17 5.5 Total Number of different periods
Following is the distribution of the total number between 21-279 of different periods over the past 19 years, (Region1: 21-90, Region 2: 91-160, Region 3: 161-230, Region4: 231-279) over the past 19 years. In order to facilitate our next statistics.
1800 1569 1600
1400
1200
1000 813
quantity 800
600
400 189 200 46 0 1 2 3 4 Region
Figure 7 Total Number of different periods
18 6. Mark Six Probabilities
6.1 The probability of 7 prizes
In the Mark Six, there are 7 prizes. So, we need to use the formular to calculate the probability of different prizes.
Suppose we totally have 49 numbers in the Mark Six, we need to draw 7 numbers out of 49 numbers. The 7th number is the extra number/ special number (y). We can see that the 49 numbers can be divided into 3 categories by the draw result: 6 ordinary(x), 42 no prize(n) and 1 special(y). The probability for the number x to win the game is: