Foreign Policy Association together with Friedrich- Ebert-Stiftung offer you a newsletter on foreign policy and European integration issues of the Republic of . The newsletter is part of the “Foreign Policy Dialogue” joint Project. NEWSLETTER MONTHLY BULLETIN MAY 2021 NR.5 (183) Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates The newsletter is developed by Mădălin Necșuțu, editor-coordinator TOPICS OF THE EDITION: 1. Leonid Litra, senior research fellow at the New Europe Centre in Kyiv, : “The increase of the Russian presence in the Black Sea is guaranteed in the coming years” 2. Editorial by Natalia Stercul, expert of the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova (APE):“The explosive situation in eastern Ukraine and its consequences for the regional security” 3. Iulian Fota, general director of the Romanian Diplomatic Institute (IDR) in Bucharest:“Russian troops in the Transnistrian region are relevant only to the Republic of Moldova” 4. Laura Zghibarța, junior researcher at the Foreign Policy Association of Moldova (APE): “The case of Ukraine and defining of the foreign, domestic or defence and security policy for the Republic of Moldova” News in Brief EU Ambassador to Chisinau Peter Michalko said in an interview with the Radio Chisinau on Republic of Moldova on May 6 that it is very important for the Republic of Moldova to credibly support a new government that will be able to carry out important reforms, so that people’s lives improve. “It is very important that the the line of the -Kyiv new parliament credibly supports a government that will be able to carry out these important reforms, so that people’s lives improve. This is in line with our relations based on the Association Agreement. We hope that we security threats will see the implementation of the Association Agreement in the future, in partnership with the institutions of the Republic of Moldova, with a new government, with a new parliament, as desired by the Moldovan citizens”, said the European diplomat. Michalko added it is very necessary that the July 11th parliamentary elections be free and fair, transparent and credible and bring results in accordance with the will of the citizens.

The President of the Republic of Moldova, , paid an official visit to Berlin on May 19-20. According to a press release issued by the Presidency, the visit took place at the invitation of the President of the Federal Republic of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, “aimed at giving a new impetus to bilateral relations between the two states.” On the first day of the visit, Maia Sandu had meetings with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and in the afternoon of the same day, President Sandu had an online discussion with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Also, during the official visit to Berlin, Maia Sandu participated in discussions related to the Republic of Moldova in the Foreign Affairs and European Affairs Committees of the German Bundestag and had meetings with deputies from the CDU/ CSU, SPD, Green Party factions of the Bundestag. Sandu discussed several topics, such as: how bilateral relations between Germany and Russian troops during their peacekeeping mission the Republic of Moldova can be improved, the political and security situation in the country and the region, the support Moldova needs to mitigate the consequences Mădălin Necșuțu and , the Republic remains constant. Only of the pandemic, a stronger cooperation for economic of Moldova will have about 20 percent of the development, improving conditions for the Moldovan diaspora in Germany. The turbulent regional to closely monitor the Russian troops massed context in the region troop movements in the near Ukraine’s borders The leader of the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM), , caused by the political Transnistrian separatist last month have been and the leader of the Communist Party of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM), , signed and military tensions region, obviously being withdrawn, so Ukraine on May 12 the official document for the creation of between Moscow and guided by the “better safe is still with the sword the Electoral Bloc of PSRM and PCRM in anticipation of early parliamentary elections which will take place on Kyiv should somehow put than sorry” saying. of Damocles hanging July 11. Igor Dodon also launched the first ideological elements of the new bloc, relying on a speech against the Moldovan authorities over its head. President the West. “Foreign factors with the help of their political on their guard. Although Despite a relative Volodymyr Zelensky’s instruments in Chisinau want to impose on citizens a set of pseudo-values, anti-family, anti-Christian, unsuitable not directly on the line relaxation on the surface, internal disputes for our nation. It also seeks to liquidate the Moldovan of potential military pressure on the Kiev with the Russian identity, including by banning the Moldovan language. The aim is to transform our country into a colony, which threats between Ukraine authorities from Moscow political elements will become a source of cheap labour, cheap land sold to foreigners, etc.” wrote Dodon on his Facebook page. Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 2 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates

and oligarchs behind them are additional sources of tension. The increase of the Russian At the same time, Zelensky’s increasingly visible desire to run for a second term presence in the Black Sea is in which he shows signs of not wanting to take a conciliatory stance with regard guaranteed in the coming years to Moscow, as it was the case until recently, is complicating matters even Leonid Litra, senior researcher at the New Europe Centre in Kiev, Ukraine more. Regarding elections, this time speaking about elections in Russia, the autumn parliamentary elections will further exacerbate the tensions in the region amid a decline in the popularity of Vladimir Putin to somewhat 60 percent.

Sure, for a true democracy this is a dictatorial score, but for an autocratic regime, as it is in Moscow, this score is rather worrying, compared to Putin’s score after the 2008 Georgian War and the annexation of Crimea, when the popularity rate of the Kremlin leader had risen to 80-90 percent.

The history of the last two decades has shown that Putin has used armed power abroad to raise his political rating domestically, which is also taken into account in the run-up to the parliamentary elections in the Russian eonid Litra, an expert in the expert regarding the current Federation in the autumn of this year. Linternational relations and post- security challenges in the region: Soviet space, spoke in an interview In the above-mentioned context, for our newsletter about what What is the current situation in the Republic of Moldova has been eastern Ukraine? What would mean witnessing these manoeuvres the Russian military threat in the a viable agreement for Kiev in the impassively. Given that about 11 per region means today, in the context negotiations with Russia over the cent of its territory is a separatist region of an increasingly visible Russian and Russia is still maintaining around militarism. We have discussed the eastern part of the country controlled 1,500-2,000 troops on its territory stakes for which Russia is pressing by pro-Russian separatists? should put Chisinau on guard in such Kiev today and what Western turbulent times. Instead, the authorities support for Kiev means in this The current situation is worrying because Ukraine, in the last two years in Chisinau are rather concerned about dangerous landscape. The security of the current President Volodymyr the current political issues domestically of the Republic of Moldova through and pay minimal importance to the Zelensky’s term, has made great the prism of Russian troops from issues happening on the international efforts to stabilize the conflict in the arena, but also in the region it belongs the Transnistrian separatist region eastern part of the country. to. It remains to be seen what impact has also been a central topic of our these Russian-Ukrainian tensions will discussions. We are inviting you Although Ukraine is not responsible have on Moldova. to read in detail the conclusions of for generating this conflict, big effort

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates 3 has been made, including concessions be reassured about this, because the young voters who are more flexible on its part on certain issues in order lesson of 2014 made it clear to us that in political views. Here, Putin will to predispose Russia to a more everything can change very quickly, have to calculate very well whether a constructive dialogue. therefore we need to be vigilant. potential escalation could bring more benefits or not. There were a few months of ceasefire This is not just about Ukraine, but which was a relatively stable about the entire Black Sea area, I think that what has happened period. I’m saying relative, because because there is a very high probability recently was an action with multiple throughout this period there have at the moment that the EU and NATO projections in which they wanted to been victims on the demarcation line. will be directly affected in this area. see a few things as a result of the And we have seen lately an escalation Because, as you know, Russia has concentration of forces. The first of the situation, which is very worrying blocked access to the Sea of ​​Azov. It was to test the USA commitment to because, to a certain extent, those has also strengthened its fleet in the Ukraine, namely for Russia to see how efforts that have been made in the Sea of ​​Azov, bringing 15 attack ships the new White House administration last two years are no longer visible from the Caspian Sea. Therefore, a big reacts to possible escalations of because of this situation. part of the coast that de jure belongs tensions in the region. Then, Russia to Ukraine is now controlled by Russia. wanted to make Ukraine more flexible And we also have seen a concentration Pressure here is growing and Romania, in the negotiations with Moscow of forces on the border with Ukraine, Bulgaria and Turkey are needed for and also to test domestically how which is adding even more tension and maintaining a balance of power in the the Russian public opinion reacts to nervousness in the conflict resolution Black Sea region. a possible new military campaign in process. Ukraine. And everyone has realized Both Ukrainian President this time, unlike in 2014, that an How much has changed since the Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir attack in Ukraine can no longer announcement of the Russian troops’ Putin want to grow in the polls. In take place in an opaque way with withdrawal from around the borders Russia, by the way, the parliamentary unidentified forces. of Ukraine? Is there still pressure on elections are taking place this Ukraine from a military point of view, autumn. Do you think Putin could Now, Russia has to show its cards given that the USA has estimated a push and escalate the tensions over because otherwise it will not be able withdrawal of only about 20 percent Ukraine? Maybe even militarily - to carry out this attack, as Ukraine of Russian troops, from 100,000 to directly or indirectly through the is no longer the country of 2014. So, some 80,000 soldiers remaining in pro-Russian rebels that Russia is many things have evolved a lot. position? controlling in the Eastern Ukraine? Is there a danger here? Regarding Zelensky’s political rating, Yes, such fears exist, the data of he has consciously promoted a Ukraine’s partners showing that a large I think Vladimir Putin has an image policy of conciliation, even though part of these Russian troops remain in problem, even though he is the most from my point of view, this is positions of potential risk for Ukraine. popular politician in Russia. He has an too early to put into practice an The only calming thing is that these approval rating of about 60 percent, electoral slogan of his campaign, troops are missing some elements that which is a lot for a democratic state, namely the end of the war. But that are part of the attack plan. but which is very little compared to did not add to his image, because what we’ve seen in previous years, concessions were made, but they One such element is special when this rating accounted for 75-80 were not very successful in the communication and all sorts of other percent. way he wanted. Now, as Zelensky’s military elements that are usually part struggle for a new presidential term of a plan of attack and are now not This has changed after the “Navalny is being foreshadowed, his steps are visible. However, I think we cannot case”, especially in the sector of becoming more determined.

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 4Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates

I am referring here to the case of adjacent areas we cannot talk about At the same time, I would like to say Viktor Medvedciuk and the attempt security in this region. that the subject of NATO accession to destabilize the Russian network must be treated with the utmost of influence in Ukraine. And not only It will be very good if the NATO delicacy, because, if we imagine a the case of Medvedciuk, there are summit, which is to take place next situation in which Ukraine receives several other cases that we can see in month, will be attentive to this issue a MAP (Membership Action Plan - a the decisions of the Security Council too. I remember Romania’s attempts roadmap for accession) and the of Ukraine and this has brought to focus on this subject, which were day after Russia attacks Ukraine, a very big plus to Zelensky. If we not always successful, but now NATO then this MAP is not going to help look at Zelensky’s rating before the will have to take these aspects into much, because Article 5 cannot be Medvedciuk’s episode, it has now account. triggered (also called “the principle of increased by about 15 percent, which musketeers in which all NATO member is a very good performance in such a In order to stop the possible states intervene if one of them is short time. aspirations of some ex-Soviet attacked). countries on the way to the Euro- How do you see Russia’s military Atlantic space, Moscow has made There must be a well-developed presence in the Black Sea region? it a practice in the last three strategy and that is why Ukraine, as Can we expect an increased military decades to open conflicts that are you have mentioned in your question, presence in the coming years or not? today either frozen or in a latent needs support. First, naval support What does this mean for Ukraine? phase. The question is whether in the Black Sea and then air defense NATO should further support capability as these are Ukraine’s The increase in the Russian presence Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia weaknesses at the moment. in the Black Sea is guaranteed in the and strengthen ties with these coming years. Russia has tried to countries, even before accession, Moving to the issue of the Republic put pressure on Ukraine through the despite this Moscow game? of Moldova, the Moldovan Minister two major Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Defense, Victor Gaiciuc, said last of ​​Azov - Mariupol and Berdyansk. Indeed, this is one of the month that Moldova has nothing Ukraine is exporting a lot through the recommendations we have made in a to worry about the tensions in the Mariupol port, which is an important recent study that we have published region with Russia. He also said that industrial center. The inability to here at the New Europe Center in the Russian-Transnistrian military export by sea is a pressure making Kiev. This would somehow discourage exercises in the separatist region of Ukraine more vulnerable to Russia. Russia from using this tool to prevent Moldova should not be a concern. NATO and EU accession, as Moldova How do you appreciate this relaxation I suspect that Russia has the same has no ambitions to become a NATO of the military authorities in Chisinau intention towards the Odessa port, member. But that is not convincing in this troubled regional context? which is the largest maritime center enough for Russia to withdraw its in Ukraine. The stakes are very high, illegally stationed troops in the I find this statement at least strange; because this is at present the only Transnistrian region. I don’t even know if it could fall functioning channel of Ukraine by sea, under the Criminal code or not, but I which presents a great advantage at There is a manual published by NATO, want to draw a parallel with Ukraine the moment. a kind of policy guide from the 1990s, here. Now, Ukraine is investigating which says that countries that have the case of the Kharkov Agreement Therefore, I believe that Russia will conflicts on their territories are not (an agreement signed in Sevastopol try to intensify its presence and here eligible for NATO integration. I believe between Ukraine and Russia in 2010 Ukraine will need the support of that this decision needs to be reviewed granting Moscow this port for 25 years Western partners, because without and would even create a strategic starting with 2017) which were signed joint patrols in the Odessa and the ambiguity throughout this discussion. by former President Yanukovych.

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It is now being investigated whether very carefully about limiting the The first and most important step or not the deputies who voted and damage in the region. that was taken was to ban that then the government that decided to transit for the supply of Russian sign that agreement were involved Also Ukraine is thinking about this. troops in the Transnistrian region. in the betrayal of the country. I Kiev understands the increase in the think that in recent years, since the military forces in Transnistria and this Both Ukraine and Moldova should be independence of the Republic of is only a small danger though very interested in ensuring that there is no Moldova from 1991, we have had distracting. Ukraine needs to have military outbreak in the Transnistrian many such statements that can troops in this area too, in order to region. The Transnistrian elites are qualify under this term. prevent the “worst case scenario” making money in this region and are coming from the Transnistrian region. interested in maintaining the status But, beyond the legal qualifications, quo, although it is Moscow that has the Republic of Moldova should be Even the Ukrainian Army has moved the last word. I hope that this region very attentive to what is happening troops to the Transnistrian border will remain peaceful, but at the same and bother about the illegal Russian segment last month, as shown in the time, I believe that the Republic of forces on its territory. Even the pictures. Moldova needs a broader defence fact that Russia, which claims to programme. be a mediator and a guarantor in This seems justified to me. Ukraine the settlement of the Transnistrian has about 3,000 kilometres of land If you look at the defence budget conflict, is participating together with border with Russia and a few hundred (about 0.39 percent of GDP), it looks the Transnistrian forces in military kilometres of sea border. In addition to like a joke, but it’s not. This pays for exercises raises very big questions, the immediate risk from Russia, there the salaries and possibly the painting including the peacekeeping mission are also troops in the Transnistrian of several walls. that Moscow claims to be a success. region. Here, in practice, Russia is doing itself Given that we have such a tense a disservice, because its role as a There are also joint troops for situation in the region, Moldova peacemaker in the region has been exercises in and Ukraine is needs to think more about the very much rumpled by this situation. in an uncomfortable position. It is expenditures for its defensive virtually surrounded from all sides capabilities. Moldova does not have How big is the danger coming from except for the northeast. them now and that is a big problem. Transnistria today for the Republic of Ukraine and Moldova can now Moldova with regard to the security Is there a need for closer participate in military exercises. dimension? cooperation in the military sector between the Republic of Moldova and We now have an unfavourable It is very difficult to estimate now. Ukraine? If so, why and how could government, with crooked And the Russians have big problems this be done? statements, but the situation could in the region, including the fact that soon change a lot. Much will depend the Russian Army is hiring soldiers There is a collaboration between on the future political configuration from the Transnistrian region. The the two countries. It has gained more in Chisinau, because in Ukraine Russian military is also heavily meaning than until 2014 (annexation there is sympathy for Maia Sandu underfunded in Transnistria. of Crimea). Ukraine did not really and a great deal of distrust for understand the Republic of Moldova existing government. Cooperation is However, even though the capacity Until then, but it understands it very needed at the level of all institutions of these forces in Transnistria is well now. Moreover, if until now the in Ukraine and the Republic of not good enough, their ability to Republic of Moldova could give advice Moldova. cause possible damage is very high. to Ukraine, now it is Ukraine which can Therefore, Moldova needs to think give advice to Moldova. Thank you for the interview!

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 6 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates Editorial The explosive situation in eastern Ukraine and its consequences for the regional security

he escalation of tensions in the escalation period until Russia’s Teastern Ukraine as a result of statements about the withdrawal of the dislocation and concentration its troops. The international partners of the Russian military equipment have expressed assurance of and personnel near Ukraine’s unconditional support for Ukraine. borders, which have been observed Thus, the degree of confrontation since early 2021 and intensified in between Russia and the West has the spring, has exacerbated the raised to an unprecedented level. militaristic sentiments and further aggravated the regional security. The armed confrontation in Donbass The lack of clarity about Moscow’s has become a kind of underlying plans and its subsequent actions factor that hinders any regulatory have significantly destabilized the process in the region. This is good situation and created good reasons for Russia, which is trying to keep for fears about the growth of a its traditional influence here. conflict centre as a result of Russia’s Natalia Stercul, The presence of local conflicts in actions. expert of the Foreign Policy Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno- Association of Moldova (APE) Karabakh, the Transnistrian region The degree of tension in eastern offers Russia additional advantages Ukraine is reaching its peak of control and influence over the course of events. After the annexation of Crimea, this has been the peak phase of escalating tensions in the region. Russia, Thus, the escalation of the conflict in Donbass and under the pretext of preparing the “West 2021” the tensions in eastern Ukraine have an impact on military exercises, has deployed two armies and three the dynamics of these conflicts, delaying the process air troops at the western borders of the country. It of settlement, de-occupation of territories and remains unclear whether this was an act of geopolitical withdrawal of Russian troops. intimidation or a rehearsal for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The explosive situation in Donbass could Risks of finding an alternative to the Minsk not leave the international actors and world leaders Agreements indifferent. Six years have passed since the signing of the Minsk Warnings against Russia from Washington, the EU Agreements aimed at easing the conflict in eastern and OSCE representatives were expressed throughout Ukraine. However, peace has not been achieved in

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates 7

Donbas. Russia’s position is quite categorical on this Understanding this has greatly contributed to issue, as it considers the Minsk Agreements to be the Ukraine’s support for NATO. only basis for overcoming the crisis in Ukraine, which has no other alternative. The action plan for joining NATO, according to Kyiv, could be a signal to Russia, as this is the only way Given this, there is a clear understanding in the West to end the Donbass war and ensure the security of that the involvement of the four countries in the Ukraine and Central Europe. At the summit Normandy format and the preservation of the Minsk on 14 June 2021, the representatives of NATO member Agreements prevent Russia from recognizing the states will discuss the so-called “roadmap” for popular republics of Donbass. For this reason, during Ukraine’s admission. the escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, French President Manuel Macron and German Russia’s reaction is obviously the tightening of Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed the importance of militaristic rhetoric, the challenges and support in local implementing the Minsk Agreements and continuing confrontations that may increase in order to destabilize negotiations in the Normandy format. Ukraine is the situation in eastern Ukraine. This is also confirmed in favour of changing the Minsk format, not fully by the current intelligence reports according to which understanding all the risks of this step. In his attempts the vast majority of Russian military forces remain to stabilize the situation, the President of Ukraine, close to Ukraine’s borders. Volodymyr Zelensky, is looking for possible ways to meet with Vladimir Putin. Ukraine is part of the Black Sea region, which is extremely unstable today, especially given the blockade Russia has repeatedly stressed that it is not a party of the Sea of ​​Azov and the Kerch Strait, and the partial to Ukraine’s internal political conflict and that the blockade of the Black Sea. Ongoing processes in the discussion about the Donbass issues should take place Black Sea region are extremely important for regional with the leaders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions security. Under the current conditions, a synergy of the that are not controlled by Ukraine. actions of the countries in the region is needed, as well as support from the West. Such statements indicate clearly that the possibilities for the reintegration of the temporarily occupied This refers, first of all, to the problems of patrolling the territories of Ukraine depend to a large extent on Black Sea, the conduct of joint military exercises in the the actual existence of the Minsk Agreements. Black Sea basin and the modelling of actions in situations Ukraine’s direct denial of these is prone to irreversible aimed at preventing the blockade of the Black Sea. consequences, which will have a direct impact on the process of resolving other local conflicts in the region. Under the current conditions, Ukraine is trying to lay the foundations for preventive and sustainable The NATO Accession Action Plan, a path to resistance actions to Russia in all directions - on land, security for Ukraine and the region at sea, in the air, in the information and cyber spaces. Mobilizing the joint efforts of the states in the region Moscow’s statements on the withdrawal of troops to maintain peace, security and stability is a priority in from the Ukrainian border have somewhat eased the current conditions. Deepening security and defense the tensions. However, Russia’s demonstration of cooperation should be based on the synchronization of its clearly defined “red lines” does not rule out joint actions with regard to interaction and operational- the possibility of using military force in the future. strategic response.

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 8 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates Russian troops in the Transnistrian region are relevant only to the Republic of Moldova Iulian Fota, general director of the Romanian Diplomatic Institute (IDR) in Bucharest and former presidential adviser on security issues

the same people with a common history. We have this element of blood that cannot be ignored.

The Republic of Moldova is a small country and not being, geopolitically speaking, located on any major route of pipelines or trade routes, and so on, has a much lower importance than Ukraine, which at this time is clearly one of the big stakes of Europe and the West. It is the same in comparison with Georgia, a country located at the foot of the Caucasus and on the route of certain pipelines and transport he Romanian expert in Does the Republic of Moldova corridors to the Caspian Sea. Tinternational relations and matter in any way in this equation So also Georgia has a higher security issues, Iulian Fota, of regional tensions created by geopolitical value. gave us an interview in which Russia’s military manoeuvres we discussed a wide range of around Ukraine’s borders? So, from the former USSR or CIS issues related to the security states, I think that the Republic of of the Republic of Moldova It matters for Romania. Beyond Moldova is one of the countries and its position in the troubled Romania, the Republic of Moldova with the lowest geopolitical geopolitical context of the does not have a very high weight. I would not want it to region. The Russian troops in the geopolitical importance. Moldova sound disrespectful towards breakaway region of Transnistria, is very important for Romania, Moldova as a country, but the game that Moscow is playing because it is one of our neighbours Moldova in itself is not a stake, in the Republic of Moldova, as and because in a natural way, we unlike Ukraine, which is a stake. well as the position of President all want settled, prosperous, stable Maia Sandu regarding the and democratic neighbours. I think that the Republic of relationship with Russia were The second element that is binding Moldova also understands this. the topics addressed in our us is the sentimental one. We in Chisinau has sought all kinds of discussions. Romania and in the Republic of associations, such as GUAM, in Moldova are to a large extent order to increase its visibility.

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In a statement for the Balkan Also, the Republic of Moldova Russian troops in Transnistria, Insight recently, the Moldovan does not seem concerned about a guarantee for Moscow Defense Minister, Victor Gaiciuc, the issue of territorial integrity. said Moldova has nothing to So, I don’t see the Moldovan The Russian troops stationed in worry about the tensions in the population to be concerned about Moldova numbers about 1,500 - region and that the intensified the Russian military presence 2,000 soldiers. Their role is to watch military exercises in the in Transnistria, in general, in the large ammunition depot in Transnistrian separatist region comparison with Georgia or Cobasna of the Transnistrian region. pose no threat to Chisinau. Does Ukraine. However, studies monitoring the the Republic of Moldova have activities of the Russian troops in any reason to worry about it or So, in the Republic of Moldova Transnistria show that they are not? you can make concessions to constantly training for offensive and Transnistrians, I mean the “small not necessarily defensive exercises. I don’t see any threat either. steps policy” here, and the Could we trust Russia that these The only ones who could look for population has nothing to say. In troops have only a watching role in a military tool to be used in the Ukraine and Georgia, no politician the Transnistrian region? Republic of Moldova could be would dare to do such a thing. the Russians. Evidence of that is Those Russian troops from the the fact that they have all those Any politician in Georgia or Transnistrian region are relevant contingents in Transnistria. The Ukraine who would think of only to the Republic of Moldova. Russians used military force when making concessions to the pro- Their relevance consists in being they needed it, as happened in Russian separatists would end positioned, not used. Those troops Georgia and Ukraine. up into a huge political scandal. have neither operational nor While in the Republic of Moldova, strategic force. They alone do not I do not see why they would do car plates were given to the pose a threat to either Ukraine this in the Republic of Moldova. Transnistrians as well as other all or the Republic of Moldova. They One thing seems strange to me, kinds of facilities and sovereignty are relevant to the situation of but also interesting, namely that prerogatives that, by international the Republic of Moldova. They are the Republic of Moldova is the only law, belong to the central there as a guarantee, but I don’t see country, at least in the European government in Chisinau. And the why they would be used, because I area of ​​the USSR, which has a pro- population did not protest. don’t see a categorical anti-Russian Russian party. Neither Georgia political reaction in the Republic of nor Ukraine has such parties. The In such a context, why would the Moldova to justify the use of those same goes for Belarus, where Russians spoil such an atmosphere troops. Lukashenko did not allow for any of sympathy for Moscow, a more party to emerge, because he wants pro-Russian one than in any other At the moment, I would not to monopolize the relations with Black Sea country? characterize the Republic of Moscow. Moldova as an anti-Russian country In addition, the Transnistrian because it is not. In the Republic of In such circumstances, the leaders are only instruments Moldova, even the pro-European question arises why use military of Moscow. So the question is: forces, including the well-defined force in a country that has a pro- would it make sense for Russia to ones, don’t have anti-Russian Russian party? To alter its electoral use military force in Transnistria? I feelings or develop such attitudes. weight and influence? That would don’t see why! Again, why use Transnistrian be just one aspect. military troops?

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 10 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates

According to the Constitution, Increased military they intervened militarily, they took the Republic of Moldova is a pressure on Kiev care to do it moderately and in neutral country. In recent years, small concentrations not to make it the public perception of NATO Recently, the USA said that Russia burdensome from the financial and has steadily improved, though still maintains around 80,000 human points of view. When your not much, but it is no longer soldiers (out of about 100,000) and soldiers die, however, that turns into the scarecrow promoted by the that the withdrawal announced a political cost. Russian propaganda. How far is by Moscow around the borders of Chisinau from NATO today? Ukraine was proposed only in a What I mean is that I don’t see what very small amount. Is there still a Russia would gain at the moment It’s light-years away. First of all, dangerous situation or is it moving by using military force, when it has at present, less than 30 percent towards a relaxation of tensions? to win a political war with and in of Moldovan citizens want to join Ukraine. NATO. It is the lowest percentage Russia has increased military of all states in the Black Sea region. pressure on Ukraine because it is As in the case of Transnistria and In Ukraine and Georgia, the public pursuing several goals in the coming the Republic of Moldova, Ukraine support for NATO is significantly period. I think it wanted to create wants to have a voice and a role to higher than in the Republic of certain opportunities and give play in the politics of these states. Moldova. So Moldovans do not certain signals. Let’s not forget that Russia lost Ukraine by annexing want NATO. there is a process of negotiations Crimea anyway. Moscow is going to between the USA and Russia. There put more pressure, the weapons will When Romania joined NATO, it is this discussion that a meeting with still be rattling, and it will be bringing had over 70 percent support. Mr Putin is possible on Mr Biden’s and withdrawing troops. They have Therefore, that issue of neutrality next visit to Europe. blocked the Sea of ​​Azov and will enshrined in the Constitution is keep it blocked until October. natural, not a forced one. At this So, I think that Russia wanted to moment, the Republic of Moldova show that it has options both for They will be playing more games, but wants a relationship with the cooperation and dialogue, and I do not see the Russians engaging in EU and even accession into the confrontation. Obviously, by putting a violent military confrontation with European space, but not into pressure on Ukraine. Ukraine. This is a much stronger, much NATO. stronger country. With an army willing The more credible the threat, the to fight, the costs for the Russians will There is also a flip side to this, more effectively this lever can be be high, implicitly for Mr. Putin. And too, namely why would you used. On the other hand, precisely that would not correspond to Russia’s use NATO as a scarecrow in a because Russia wants to have as desire to manoeuvre in Ukraine’s country that does not want to many options as possible, I don’t domestic policy. join NATO? I mean, to scare the see it using military force at the citizens with what? It would be a moment. By the way, when Russia annexed matter of scaring them somehow Crimea, it removed several million that they would lose NATO, as it And if we look at the Russians in pro-Russian voters from the political once was the case in Romania, recent years, they have been very game in Ukraine. They used to but in Moldova, where people calculated and careful in using the vote for pro-Russian parties and don’t want NATO, I don’t see military force. I’m not just talking politicians. Then they put such how you can scare them with about Crimea or the Donbas. But voters out of the game in Donetsk this thing. also in Syria, or elsewhere where and Lugansk as well.

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In a way, that was all for the best for this is not public information, but very tactfully so far. It was clear Ukraine, because without these pro- more troops would be equivalent to that she didn’t close the door for Russian votes, the country had fewer more security for Romania. Moscow and she did it very well. pro-Russian politicians and then We could see that she is also Ukraine was much more consistent The international relations theory willing to carry a dialogue with in its domestic policy. Thus, it could tells us that there should be Moscow. These are important consolidate better and was able to a balance between countries. stakes for the Republic of Moldova rebuild its army better. Consequently, this supplementary in its relations with Russia. First of concentration of Russian forces in all, it is about agricultural exports. More security through the US Crimea and the transformation of military presence in the region Crimea into an ultra-armed aircraft Secondly, the Republic of Moldova carrier should be obviously balanced has citizens working in Russia How dangerous is it for Romania and the balance should be equal. and cannot be indifferent to their to still have Russian troops? I’m situation. I understand it and I speaking here about those in This balance, on the one hand, is think it is absolutely correct that Transnistria, about 100 kilometres given by the additional training and a pro-European oriented Chisinau from its borders? endowment of the Romanian armed should try to maintain dialogue troops, and on the other hand, it is with Moscow. Those troops don’t matter to the contribution of Romania’s NATO Romania and pose no threat to it. allies. In fact, it is clear that Russia They do not have the necessary also wants this. President Putin power to endanger Romania on any All come in the context of congratulated Maia Sandu and was of its segments of the border with strengthening the NATO’s among the first to do it. I don’t see the Republic of Moldova. capabilities on the eastern flank to why a pro-European government protect all these states. would antagonize Russia, provided Sure, they need to be monitored, it keeps dialogue with Russia, just but they can’t be a danger. Instead, Coherent policy in as the West does. Crimea is a problem, because relation to Moscow there is a large concentration of In the West, when the issue of troops there. It is a distance of 300 What would it mean in terms of sanctions against Russia was kilometres. security for the pro-European forces raised, there was the issue of President Klaus Iohannis has to come to power in Chisinau and cooperation with Moscow, not demanded at the recent B9 summit with a future majority coalition and of dialogue. Throughout this in Bucharest, which was also a government along with President complicated period, both the attended online by the President Maia Sandu and her reformist biggest and smallest states have of the United States, Joe Biden, agenda? Would this create continued the dialogue with a greater American military increased security opportunities Russia. Collaboration on certain presence in Romania. What does for Chisinau or, on the contrary, projects has stopped, but the an increased American presence this would antagonize Russia and first rule of diplomacy says direct in Romania mean for the regional stimulate its involvement in the contact should be maintained security? domestic policy of the Republic of because otherwise there is no Moldova? diplomatic process. More security. We don’t officially know what the increased presence I think that Ms Maia Sandu Thank you! would mean in quantity, because has been very wise and acted

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 12 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates Expert Opinion The case of Ukraine and defining of the foreign, domestic or defence and security policy for the Republic of Moldova

Laura Zghibarța, junior researcher at the Foreign Policy Association (APE)

hile Moldova appears to be consumed by the July early Wparliamentary elections and to maximize political capital for the latter, Ukraine has faced Russian military manoeuvres and challenges at its eastern border, an area Russia has direct access to unlike to Transnistria. The intensity and magnitude of the manoeuvre that animated the Western powers, being the largest concentration of Russian troops since 2014, the proximity to Moldova and the implications of the dynamics for the final settlement of into a “powder keg” by equipping it the Transnistrian conflict, the domestic reform launched by the with weapons, is a threat that Russia new Presidency, but also for the potential pragmatic and positive claims it has to fight against. Moldovan-Russian partnership - all these circumstances raise the question of the specifics and direction of the national policy In addition, although it does not that Moldova should adopt, regardless of the outcome of the consider itself involved in the parliamentary election. fighting in Ukraine, Russia will not remain indifferent to the Russian- Military manoeuvres and explanations provided by the speaking population in the region challenges for Ukraine Russian authorities. that receives Russian passports and Russia’s ‘legitimate protectorate’ Russia’s military presence on the The argument for launching exercises therefore. eastern border of Ukraine, near in the region to test the level of the Donbas region and in Crimea, training and ensure the operational The context of these movements amounting to more than 100,000 and defence capability of its military goes beyond a strictly domestic troops, involving also tanks, forces, in case of a security threat, problem of Ukraine. Although it artillery, armoured vehicles and has been coupled with a reaction could be an exercise of intimidating military equipment, following the considered legitimate by Russia to and discouraging Ukraine by recent intensification of hostilities the so-called challenges posed by displaying Russia’s military between Kyiv and the pro- Russian the Ukrainian authorities in Donbas superiority over the Ukrainian forces, separatists in the east, despite the that tried to escalate the conflict but also applying pressure to obtain 2019-2020 Ceasefire Agreement, with the separatists in the east. And concessions on the implementation has had inconsistent or perhaps the USA and NATO incursions in of the Minsk Agreements and the stratified and interconnected Ukraine, which are turning the latter status of self-proclaimed republics.

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So also to maximize the influence by the Ukrainian authorities to be signal regarding the (non-traditional) that Russia will be able to exert on the solution to the Donbas war and security of the country, partially the domestic political and decision- Russia’s incursions into the country, a triggered by a new foreign and making process of Ukraine or on the fact repeated in this regional context, domestic policy agenda after the delay of its European course, the NATO is not necessarily willing to presidential elections. During this implications being also of regional/ expand and give Ukraine this status, period, the Ukrainian authorities international character. perhaps constrained by the Russian relied on securing the border with factor, which has addressed recently Moldova, sending armed forces and The USA is uncompromising and the possibility of an escalation of equipment against the background more determined to take action tensions “with possible irreversible of military exercises carried out in against Russia’s slippage in terms consequences for the Ukrainian Transnistria by GOTR together with of respect for human rights and state” in the event of accession. the Transnistrian troops. alignment with democratic standards against its military tendencies, On the other hand, although it Being a typical practice in the security policy and disinformation had requested from the United region that has not caused alarm directions, hybrid threats or targets States to provide advanced defence for the country’s authorities (at pursued through Nord Stream 2. equipment and systems during the least for the Minister of Defense), Led by President Biden, it is also a Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s the manoeuvres are symbolic promoter of Ukraine’s sovereignty visit to Ukraine, which did not result for their destabilizing potential and integrity. in concrete policies in this regard, and their role in undermining the the United States is seeking to regional security, sovereignty and In addition, the Black Sea is an arena strengthen the bilateral cooperation territorial integrity of the country, of conflict and increased military, and assistance in the security area. especially in the context in which economic, energy and political Transnistria seems ambitious. tensions, which includes NATO, USA, Ukraine has been also encouraged by Krasnoselski’s statements on the Russia and Ukraine among other the European Union’s call on other region’s capacity to respond to an actors. states to step up its military support, (unlikely) armed attack by Chisinau, as well as by the international the clear-cut attitude towards the Even though Russia declares that experts’ community who ascribe usefulness of Russian peacekeeping military activity in the region does an important role to the increase in troops and the preservation of the not pose any threat to Ukraine conventional defence and defence current format of the mission or the (now in the process of withdrawing capabilities, and the deployment continuation of bilateral dialogue after the announcement by officials of troops from the NATO member with the Russian officials, including confirming the ‘success’ of the states in the country (in addition the need to protect the rights and exercises started), this dynamic will to other diplomatic and economic interests of Russian ‘compatriots’ remain a destabilizing factor with measures for the West to consider) in the region and to provide legal a potential escalation of tensions in order to strengthen resilience means to facilitate the acquisition of in the region, which will generate a and ensure a certain parity in the Russian citizenship by the people in kind of security dilemma. Russian-Ukrainian relations. Transnistria are representative, the latter being a problematic policy/ Being directly exposed to a military An indirect alarm signal for discourse restricting the legitimate issue, in addition to a political one, Moldova rights that Moldova can exercise over Ukraine demands certain military its citizens and territory, formalized (defence) solutions. Even though The case of Ukraine should also on the left bank of the Dniester and NATO membership is considered represent for Moldova an alarm applied to Ukraine.

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And yet, the Moldovan authorities military manoeuvres and calling for democracy and the rule of law, the are increasingly discussing with the withdrawal of armed forces, quality of the institutional or judicial Western partners the creation of joint dialogue initiatives or new process in the country, but also conditions for the final settlement sanctions imposed by the USA the need to ensure integrity and of the conflict: the withdrawal of on Russia, which, although not sovereignty of the country- all aim Russian troops, ammunition from addressing the events in the region, at ensuring the proper functioning Cobasna and the involvement of they reflected the attitude of the and, thus, the state resilience the OSCE in ensuring a transparent American authorities towards the through an open, constructive and process in addition to resolving Russian challenges. advantageous interaction with all sectoral issues. It is suggestive that, cooperation partners. relying on the organization of a 5 + Not being on the agenda of great 2 meeting with the OSCE this year, powers or a member of the On the other hand, it is also about President Maia Sandu ascribes an European Union and NATO, with reducing/ combating the pressure important role to the domestic a less important domestic issue exerted by Russia through the political stability in advancing the requiring the attention of the West Transnistrian issue, trade barriers, Transnistrian negotiations and and a deep involvement in the Russian gas and previously resolution process. country’s affairs, Moldova will have politicized bilateral relations; solving to become self-sufficient and act these problems and building as non- Moldova’s experience with Russia largely autonomously. conflicting, positive and pragmatic or Transnistria does not necessarily parity relations as possible, which have to do with a military problem The advantage is that the would allow Moldova to develop by and solution or with a direct Transnistrian issue is not necessarily aligning with European standards USA, NATO or EU presence in the connected to wider external (democracy, the rule of law, etc.). country. The problem is, first of disputes, such as the case of all, a (geo) political one, and the Ukraine with Nord Stream 2 or The opportunity for domestic presence of the West is noticeable the tensions in the Black Sea, with reforms is on the bilateral agendas through development programmes, Moldova having the opportunity with the USA or the EU, while financial support, political dialogue to focus on the internal process. solutions for stabilizing and securing and statements addressed to The fact that the USA is also the country lie in absorbing the political class and authorities that discussing not only Ukraine’s financial, technical and operational undermine the rule of law and defence capabilities in such a support provided by the West for democratic processes in the country. situation, but also the fight against economic development, financial The latter has been categorized corruption that the Ukrainian sector transparency, judicial reform, recently by Russia as an interference authorities must assume, is even good governance, building the in Moldova’s internal affairs. In more representative for Moldova. non-traditional defence capacities addition, compared to Ukraine, Given the challenges facing the used by some states (the fight Moldova does not aspire to NATO country that make it susceptible against hybrid threats, cyber and membership. to external incursions that do not information security) and projects serve the national interest, Moldova to promote trust between the two A foreign policy, domestic policy needs non-traditional defence banks of the Dniester. or a defense and security policy mechanisms. The foreign policy for Moldova? promoted by the new presidential In the case of Transnistria, major institution, internalized and importance is attached not only The West has had a less imposing adjusted to the domestic policy, to the withdrawal of Russian reaction to the events in Ukraine - the citizens’ welfare, the fight military force and equipment, diplomatic positions condemning against corruption, strengthening but also to the expansion of

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected] MAY 2021 Synthesis and Foreign Policy Debates 15 domestic and regional reform, the would use in its security policy. reaction from Ukrainian officials decriminalization and removal of Updating the national security to the events in Ukraine, such the political, economic and social strategy, adequate funding of the speeches may not be very useful in instruments that fuel the conflict. army and its participation in military the run-up to the early elections, training and exercise programmes the position of political actors such Strengthening - policies promoted by Maia Sandu, as PAS, Maia Sandu, or PSRM can be the dialogue coupled with programmes aimed inferred from previous statements in the Transnistrian case at modernizing and reforming the on Crimea and recognition of the national army and strengthening Ukraine’s integrity and sovereignty. The dialogue between Chisinau and the good governance in the defence Tiraspol as parties to the conflict sector, implemented in partnership Early elections will define the (and not Moldova and Russia) is with NATO - all aim at creating a direction of national policy, an already established practice. security/ defence institution in the how Moldova will address and However, Maia Sandu seems to country that serves the national perceive national insecurities, want to move further, relying on interest in order to resist attempts how it will react to regional events the revival of the broad format of of external interference and hybrid and cooperate with its partners. negotiations and previous failures threats, to support the building It is important that the state (2019 negotiations in Bratislava). All of a democratic state and thus to does not find itself in a state of this aims at maximizing Chisinau’s contribute to the regional security. uncertainty, given that the Western share in the negotiations and its partnership, but also the regional ability to ensure compliance with In the case of Moldova, foreign, one (Eastern Europe) need to be the commitments made by the domestic, defence and security strengthened. By acting in good parties, such as those at the 1999 policies are not excluded, being not faith and in the direction of a OSCE Summit. only synergistic, but based on the democratic path, Moldova could same objective - ensuring a good gain more international support The military aspect is not to be and independent functioning of the for the creation and maintenance neglected, but it is probably not the state, as a form of national security. of a secure and developed internal first means and tool that Moldova Although there has been little public environment.

The opinions expressed in the newsletter are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) or of the Foreign Policy Association (APE).

Foreign Policy Association (APE) is a non-governmental organization committed to supporting the integration of the Republic of Moldova into the European Union and facilitating the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict in the context of the country Europeanization. APE was established in fall 2003 by a group of well-known experts, public personalities and former senior officials and diplomats, all of them reunited by their commitment to contribute with their expertise and experience to formulating and promoting by the Republic of Moldova of a coherent, credible and efficient foreign policy.

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is a German social democratic political foundation, whose purpose is to promote the principles and foundations of democracy, peace, international understanding and cooperation. FES fulfils its mandate in the spirit of social democracy, dedicating itself to the public debate and finding in a transparent manner, social democratic solutions to current and future problems of the society. Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has been active in the Republic of Moldova since October 2002.

Monthly newsletter, No.5 (183), May 2021 111 Bucuresti St., Chisinau, MD-2012, Republic of Moldova, Tel. +373 855830 Website: fes-moldova.org. E-mail:[email protected]