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Crisiswatch, Nr. 15 1 November 2004, N°15 Board of Trustees CrisisWatch: Martti Ahtisaari summarises briefly developments during the previous month in some 70 situations of current or Chairman potential conflict, listed alphabetically by region, providing references and links to more detailed information sources (all references mentioned are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin); Maria Livanos Cattaui assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, during the previous month, significantly Stephen Solarz deteriorated, significantly improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged; Vice-Chairmen alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there is a particular risk of new or significantly Gareth Evans escalated conflict, or a particular conflict resolution opportunity (noting that in some instances there may President and CEO in fact be both); and summarises ICG reports and briefing papers that have been published in the last month. Morton Abramowitz Adnan Abu-Odeh CrisisWatch is compiled by ICG’s Brussels Research Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the Kenneth Adelman resources of our more than 100 staff members across five continents, who already report on some 50 of Ersin Arioglu the situations listed here. Comments and suggestions can be sent to [email protected]. Emma Bonino Zbigniew Brzezinski Cheryl Carolus Victor Chu Wesley Clark October 2004 Trends Pat Cox Ruth Dreifuss Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations Uffe Ellemann-Jensen Mark Eyskens China (internal) (p.6) Myanmar/Burma (p.7) Afghanistan (p.5) Stanley Fischer Côte d’Ivoire (p.3) Nigeria (p.4) Basque Country (Spain) (p.9) Yoichi Funabashi Bronislaw Geremek Egypt (p.11) Pakistan (p.6) Burundi (p.2) I. K. Gujral Guinea-Bissau (p.4) Peru (p.10) Colombia (p.9) Carla Hills Haiti (p.10) Somalia (p.2) Guinea (p.4) Lena Hjelm-Wallén India (non-Kashmir) (p.5) Thailand (p.7) Zimbabwe (p.3) James C.F. Huang Liberia (p.4) Swanee Hunt Asma Jahangir Ellen Johnson Sirleaf Unchanged Situations Shiv Vikram Khemka Bethuel Kiplagat Albania (p.7), Algeria (p.11), Angola (p.3), Armenia (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bangladesh (p.5), Wim Kok Bolivia (p.9), Bosnia & Herzegovina (p.8), Chad (p.2), Chechnya (Russia) (p.9), Cyprus (p.9), Trifun Kostovski Democratic Republic of Congo (p.2), Ecuador (p.10), Ethiopia/Eritrea (p.2), Georgia (p.9), Elliott F. Kulick Indonesia (p.7), Iran (p.11), Iraq (p.11), Israel/Occupied Territories (p.10), Jordan (p.10), Kashmir Joanne Leedom-Ackerman (p.5), Kazakhstan (p.4), Kosovo (p.8), Kyrgyzstan (p.4), Lebanon (p.10), Libya (p.12), Macedonia Todung Mulya Lubis (p.8), Maldives (p.6), Mauritania (p.12), Moldova (p.9), Morocco (p.12), Nagorno-Karabakh Barbara McDougall (Azerbaijan) (p.9), Nepal (p.6), North Korea (p.6), Northern Ireland (UK) (p.9), Philippines (p.7), Ayo Obe Rwanda (p.2), Saudi Arabia (p.11), Serbia & Montenegro (p.8), Sierra Leone (p.4), Sri Lanka Christine Ockrent (p.6), Sudan (p.3), Syria (p.11), Taiwan Strait (p.7), Tajikistan (p.4), Turkey (p.9), Turkmenistan Friedbert Pflüger Victor Pinchuk (p.5), Uganda (p.2), Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.10), Western Sahara (p.12) Surin Pitsuwan Itamar Rabinovich Fidel V. Ramos George Robertson November 2004 Watchlist Mohamed Sahnoun Ghassan Salamé Conflict Risk Alert Conflict Resolution Salim A. Salim Opportunity Douglas Schoen Haiti William Shawcross Somalia Burundi George Soros Pär Stenbäck Thailand Thorvald Stoltenberg William O. Taylor Grigory Yavlinsky Uta Zapf ICG is an independent, non-profit, multinational organisation, with over 100 staff members on five continents, working Ernesto Zedillo through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. ICG’s approach is grounded in field research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent conflict. Based on information and assessments from the field, ICG produces regular analytical Chairman Emeritus reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high level George J. Mitchell advocacy. ICG is chaired by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, and its President and Chief Executive is former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans. “Kabila Visits Ex-Rebel Territory”, The Washington Post, 17 Oct. 2004. For background, see ICG Africa Report N°84, Maintaining Momentum in the Congo: The Ituri Problem, 26 Aug. 2004. CENTRAL AFRICA Rwanda Rwandan and DR Congo governments agreed 5 October to deployment of joint monitoring teams to Bukavu Burundi Constitutional crisis alleviated 31 October and Goma, eastern DR Congo, as part of Joint Verification by agreement of 5 of 6 so-called Tutsi parties to Commission (JVC) agreed September. European Union support draft constitution. Tutsi parties previously opposed criticised Rwandan parliamentary report on NGO genocide constitution approved by transitional parliament 20 October, ideology, fearing attempt at intimidation of opposition to threatening boycott. Parties objected to counting of Tutsis in government; Rwandan government criticised outside so-called Hutu parties in power-sharing quotas for intervention. Rwanda, Uganda and DR Congo signed parliament. UPRONA, main Tutsi party, remained opposed. agreement 26 October to set up mechanism for addressing Regional leaders endorsed 6-month extension of President regional security concerns. Ndayizeye’s transitional government 15 October in “Rwanda, Uganda, DRC reach agreement on security recognition of expected failure to meet 2000 Arusha structure”, Voice of America, 26 Oct. 2004. accords’ 31 October election deadline. Presidential “EU warns Rwanda on controversial genocide report”, elections delayed to 22 April 2005; local elections to be held Hirondelle, 8 Oct. 2004. February and legislative elections March 2005. Meanwhile, “DR of Congo and Rwanda agree to deploy teams to clashes killed 15 members of Hutu FNL group opposed to troubled border towns”, UN News, 7 Oct. 2004. peace deal south of Bujumbura 28 October. For background to 2003 elections, see ICG Africa Report “Tutsi groups end opposition to Burundi constitution”, N°53, Rwanda at the End of the Transition: A Necessary Reuters AlertNet, 1 Nov. 2004. Political Liberalisation, 13 Nov. 2002. For background to “Communiqué of the Great Lakes regional peace initiative ICTR, see ICG Africa Report N°69, The International for Burundi”, 23 Oct. 2004. Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda: Time for Pragmatism, 26 “Interim constitution endorsed amidst protests”, IRIN, 21 Sept. 2003. Oct. 2004. For background, see ICG Africa Report N°81, End of the Uganda Briefing UN Security Council 21 October, UN Transition in Burundi: The Home Stretch, 5 July 2004. Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Jan Egeland called northern Uganda biggest neglected Chad Darfur crisis and presence of 200,000 refugees humanitarian emergency in world. Meanwhile, army claimed eastern Chad continued to destabilise President Déby’s continuing success of military campaign; 15 Lord’s regime, though fears of cross-border violence declined with Resistance Army insurgents killed near Kitgum 16-17 French air patrols. Déby’s own Zagawa tribe critical of October. Uganda Human Rights Commission criticised president for failure to protect Sudanese kinsmen. impunity for torture committed by army. “Darfur forces President Deby onto political tightrope”, “Northern Uganda 'world's biggest neglected crisis'”, The IRIN, 5 Oct. 2004. Guardian, 22 Oct. 2004. “Torture 'widespread' in Uganda”, BBC, 19 Oct. 2004. Democratic Republic of Congo President Kabila “Back to school in Uganda for 10 seized by rebels”, visited Kisingani, eastern DR Congo, amidst tight security 16 International Herald Tribune, 10 Oct. 2004. October, claiming country secure; but trips further east and For background, see ICG Africa Report N°77, Northern Kisingani meeting were cancelled. 3,000 refugees fled to Uganda: Understanding and Solving the Conflict, 14 Apr. Kilwa Island, Zambia, after Portuguese-speaking Tigres or 2004; and ICG Issues Report N°3, HIV/AIDS as a Security Diabolos fighters took Kilwa mining town, Katanga province, 15 Issue in Africa: Lessons from Uganda, 16 Apr. 2004. October. Army retook town days later, killing 30; captured rebel leader died 17 October. DR Congo recalled ambassador to HORN OF AFRICA Belgium 22 October following Belgian foreign minister’s comments disparaging transitional government. In positive Ethiopia/Eritrea Tensions with Ethiopia remained over development, International Criminal Court signed agreement unresolved issue of Badme; new Ethiopian settlements in with DR Congo 6 October to investigate war crimes in Ituri Badme reported. Eritrea’s relations with Sudan deteriorated province. Ugandan President Museveni suggested “provisional with 19 October claim of Sudanese plot to assassinate immunity” for Ituri warlords needed until DR Congo peace President Isaias; Sudan denied report and claimed Eritrea process secured. Human Rights Watch claimed Uganda- backs insurgency in eastern Sudan. Eritrea later claimed to backed FAPC militia responsible for torture of 18 and death of have captured terror network. 6 civilians Ituri province 14 October. “Ethiopian settlements in Badme: UN ‘aware of the situation’”, “Don't prosecute DR Congo rebels, Museveni urges UN”, The Sudan Tribune, 29 Oct. 2004. The Monitor, 25 Oct. 2004. “Eritrea attacks Sudan, deepens isolation”, Afrol, 19 Oct. 2004. “Congo assails Belgium”,
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