TOWARDS #NATO2030: THE REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE OF THE BALTIC STATES AND POLAND The Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA) is the oldest Latvian think tank that specializes in foreign and securi- ty policy analysis. LIIA was established in THE REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE OF 1992 as a non- profit association with the aim of providing Latvia’s decision-makers, THE BALTIC STATES AND POLAND experts, and the wider public with analysis, recommendations, and information about international developments, regional secu- EDITORS: MĀRIS ANDŽĀNS, MĀRTIŅŠ VARGULIS rity issues, and foreign policy strategies and choices. It is an independent research institute that conducts research, develops publications, and organizes public lectures and conferences related to global affairs and Latvia’s international role and policies. Latvian Institute of International Affairs Pils iela 21, Riga, LV-1050, Republic of Latvia, [email protected] www.liia.lv The publication is supported by NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division. THE REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE OF THE BALTIC STATES AND POLAND AND STATES BALTIC THE OF PERSPECTIVE REGIONAL THE TOWARDS #NATO2030: TOWARDS The publication “Towards #NATO2030: The Regional Perspective of the Baltic States and Poland” offers a collection of articles that reflect on topical security issues of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Authors from the region discuss transforming regional security policies and realities towards NATO 2030. Particular attention is devoted to the transatlantic link, Baltic defence, the NATO–Russia relationship, and the role of other emerging elements and actors. Issues beyond traditional regional security challenges are also addressed. Editors: Māris Andžāns, Mārtiņš Vargulis Authors: Māris Andžns, Adam Balcer, Kristīne Bērziņa, Beata Górka-Winter, Martin Hurt, Tomas Janeliūnas, Tomas Jermalavičius, Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik, Alejandro Leal, Egils Levits, Imants Lieģis, Holger Molder, Emilija Pundziūtė-Gallois, Toms Rostoks, Margarita Šešelgytė, Piotr Szymański, Marcin Terlikowski, Mārtiņš Vargulis, Viljar Veebel Language editor: Talis Saule Archdeacon Cover design: Mikus Kovalevskis Layout: Oskars Stalidzāns The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Latvian Institute of International Affairs, any of the sponsors, or any governmental or other entity. This project is managed by the Latvian Institute of International Affairs and supported by the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. ISBN 978-9934-567-55-1 © Authors of the articles, 2020 UDK 327(4) © Cover design: Mikus Kovalevskis, 2020 To950 © Latvian Institute of International Affairs, 2020 Contents Note by the Editors .........................................8 Address of the President of the Republic of Latvia Egils Levits .......9 FURTHERING DETERRENCE AND ASSURANCE TOMS ROSTOKS Managing Deterrence and Escalation on NATO’s Eastern Flank .....12 MARTINS HURT Towards a Credible Deterrence and Defence Posture in the Baltics in 2030 .........................23 BEATA GÓRKA-WINTER A2/AD and Beyond: The Baltic Sea Region in the New NATO Strategic Concept . 35 TOMAS JANELIŪNAS NATO’s Involvement in Strategic Stability and Arms Control: The Role and Interests of the Baltic States ......................46 MAINTAINING AND STRENGTHENING INTERNAL COHESION IMANTS LIEĢIS Retaining NATO Unity in the 2020s – the View from Rīga ..........58 VILJAR VEEBEL Options for Strategic Partnerships for the Baltic States in 2030: The Defence Nexus of the United States, NATO, and the EU . .67 ADAM BALCER Turkey and the Eastern Flank of NATO: The Polish Perspective . .81 TOWARDS NEW HORIZONS AND RESILIENCE TOMAS JERMALAVIČIUS, ALEJANDRO LEAL Gravity of “Star NATO”: Can the Alliance Pull the Baltics Into Military Space Affairs? ......................96 HOLGER MÖLDER Invisible Battlegrounds in the 21st Century: Psychological Warfare, Influence Operations and Their Impact on NATO’s Future From the Baltic Perspective ....... 111 ALEKSANDRA KUCZYŃSKA-ZONIK Propaganda and Disinformation in the Age of Uncertainty – How to Strengthen NATO Capacities .........................123 PIOTR SZYMANSKI Towards Resilience in 2030: NATO Allies and Partners in the North-East of Europe ...........132 STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING PARTNERSHIPS EMILIJA PUNDZIŪTĖ-GALLOIS NATO Enlargement for the Coming Decade: What to Expect for Georgia and Ukraine? . .144 KRISTĪNE BĒRZIŅA New Threats Require New Partners: How the Baltic States, Poland, and NATO Should Deepen Global Partnerships to Counter Emerging Threats at Home .......158 MARCIN TERLIKOWSKI NATO and European Strategic Autonomy: The 2030 Perspective .....................................172 POSTFACE MARGARITA ŠEŠELGYTĖ Three Themes for NATO 2030 in the Eastern Flank: Conventional “Build-up”, Addressing Hybrid Challenges and Strengthening the Community of Values ...................188 Authors . 202 Note by the Editors The Latvian Institute of International Affairs is privileged to present its input to the #NATO2030 reflection process. A process that began in December 2019 with a plea from Allied leaders has accumulated steam, with reflections from across different regions and multiple domains. It is indeed essential that NATO enters and endures the next decade in light of current and (un)expected events and developments. The Latvian Institute of International Affairs contributes to the #NATO2030 reflection process with a collection of views from academics and think-tankers from across the three Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as Poland. The well-known Russia- related concerns of the Baltics and Poland are ever evident, and they maintain prevalence in this analysis as well. Nevertheless, this group of experts from North-Eastern Europe also underline other significant themes. These issues include the internal cohesion of NATO, new horizons of operation and resilience, as well as the need to strengthen and expand NATO partnerships. We hereby acknowledge the generous support provided by the NATO Public Diplomacy Division. As this volume of articles demonstrates, solidarity and solid partnerships remain indispensable in order to efficiently navigate through times of uncertainty and shape regional and national security strategies in a wider transatlantic framework. We hope you will enjoy the reading! Māris Andžāns, Mārtiņš Vargulis 8 Address by the President of the Republic of Latvia In December 2019 at the NATO leaders’ meeting marking the 70th anniversary of the Alliance, Allies agreed to initiate a reflection process to further strengthen the political dimension of NATO. The process of #NATO2030 was established. We are now able to consider the implications and to plan for the implementation of the findings of the Secretary General’s group of experts. Meanwhile, the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA) has been fortunate to bring together 16 distinguished Polish, Lithuanian, Estonian and Latvian specialists in order to contribute to the discussion from a regional perspective. During its 71 years, NATO has been not only the most successful defense Alliance in the history but has also maintained its core values and democratic principles. Among these is the right of all Allies to have their voices heard and the certainty that their security needs are recognized by the Alliance. This has been convincingly exemplified by the Enhanced Forward Presence in our countries which has substantially increased our security and demonstrated once again NATO solidarity and cohesion. Now, as we look ahead to a rapidly transforming world, Baltic and Polish researchers offer a set of conclusions indicating the most challenging aspects and ways forward from a regional perspective. Particular attention has been paid to the transatlantic link, Baltic defense, as well as the role of Russia in the regional security constellation and its relations with NATO. This publication offers a collection of recommendations reflecting the perception of the Baltic States and Poland. Their aim is to contribute to the overall study developed by the group of experts. While raising awareness of the most challenging issues from a regional perspective is important, so too is the development of a wide- ranging discussion on the issues regarding NATO’s future development. This is important for the Baltic States and Poland, but it is equally important in all other Allied countries. We must ensure that there is an 9 informed debate in the mass media about NATO. This must result in improvements to the popular understanding of NATO and its activities which is essential to the Alliance’s future success. With this in mind, LIIA will be organising a public discussion based on these papers in the middle of December. I hope and trust that this will facilitate the kind of public debate which will strengthen NATO’s role in the future and enable the implementation of #NATO2030 findings. We live in a rapidly changing security environment in which NATO must adapt quickly if it is to continue to provide the defence and security on which we all rely. NATO has demonstrated this ability in the past. Now it must do so once again. Egils Levits 10 FURTHERING DETERRENCE AND ASSURANCE Managing Deterrence and Escalation on NATO’s Eastern Flank TOMS ROSTOKS Introduction NATO aims to be stronger militarily, more united politically, and have a more global outlook in response to increasing international competition by 2030.1 Success in attaining these aims cannot be taken for granted though. Domestic politics in NATO member states and increasing