Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date Sell China Cinda 15 May 2014 Initiation of Coverage Asia China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 15 May 2014 (HKD) 3.91 Banking / Finance 1359.HK 1359 HK HSI 1359 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 3.20 Other Financial Services 52-week range (HKD) 5.43 - 3.60 HANG SENG INDEX 22,583 A misplaced sense of security - Hans Fan, CFA Tracy Yu initiating with Sell Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6353 (+852) 2203 6191 History cannot repeat itself
[email protected] [email protected] We initiate our coverage of Cinda with a Sell rating and a HKD3.2 target price (1.05x 2014E P/B), as we believe the company is significantly more exposed Michael Zhang, CFA Jacky Zuo than banks to China's long-term slowing economy while historical recovery rates may not be indicative of future trends given the changes in operating Research Associate Research Associate environment. Contrary to market perceptions that Cinda benefits from rising (+852) 2203 6158 (+852) 2203 6255 NPLs, the traditional NPL acquisition/recovery business only contributed to 4%
[email protected] [email protected] of assets or 11% of income in 2013. For the other businesses, we see higher connectivity to the riskier shadow banking activities, with close ties with the Price/price relative price cycle of property and coal sectors. 5.6 Restructuring distressed assets (26% of assets) to face rising impairments 5.2 Cinda’s restructuring distressed assets (RDA) business (26% of total assets) is 4.8 a sub-prime lending business, with 60% of the lending extended to property 4.4 4.0 developers (we estimate >50% in lower tiered cities).