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Lietuvos Finansų Rinkų Apžvalga 2004 M. Vilnius

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Lietuvos Finansų Rinkų Apžvalga 2004 M. Vilnius LIETUVOS FINANSŲ RINKŲ APŽVALGA 2004 M. VILNIUS 2 TURINYS 1. AKTUALŪS UŽSIENIO ŠALIŲ VALIUTŲ IR PINIGŲ POLITIKOS POKYČIAI............................ 3 1.1. ECB IR JAV FRS PALŪKANŲ POLITIKA............................................................................................................ 3 1.1.1. ECB PALŪKANŲ POLITIKA ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.1.2. FRS PALŪKANŲ POLITIKA.............................................................................................................................. 4 1.2. EURO KURSO KAITA.............................................................................................................................................. 6 1.3. KITI AKTUALŪS VALIUTŲ IR PINIGŲ POLITIKOS ĮVYKIAI ...................................................................... 7 1.3.1. EURO ZONA........................................................................................................................................................ 7 1.3.2. KITOS ŠALYS.................................................................................................................................................... 10 2. LIETUVOS PINIGŲ POLITIKA IR ŠALIES BEI VALIUTOS KURSO RIZIKOS RODIKLIAI ... 14 3. LIETUVOS FINANSŲ RINKŲ APŽVALGA.......................................................................................... 16 3.1. BANKŲ ATSARGOS LIETUVOS BANKE........................................................................................................... 16 3.1.1. PRIVALOMŲJŲ ATSARGŲ REIKALAVIMAI BANKAMS IR JŲ VYKDYMAS........................................ 16 3.1.2. BANKŲ ATSARGŲ PERTEKLIAUS DINAMIKA IR VEIKSNIAI................................................................ 17 3.1.3. SKOLINIMOSI LIETUVOS BANKE GALIMYBĖS........................................................................................ 21 3.2. TARPBANKINĖ RINKA ......................................................................................................................................... 23 3.2.1. TARPBANKINĖ UŽSIENIO VALIUTŲ SKOLINIMO RINKA ...................................................................... 23 3.2.2. TARPBANKINĖ LITŲ SKOLINIMO RINKA.................................................................................................. 24 3.2.3. VALIUTOS KEITIMAS NEATIDĖLIOTINAIS SANDORIAIS ...................................................................... 26 3.2.4. BANKŲ SISTEMOS UŽSIENIO VALIUTOS POZICIJOS VALDYMAS....................................................... 27 3.3. INDĖLIŲ BANKUOSE RINKA .............................................................................................................................. 29 3.3.1. INDĖLIAI ........................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.3.2. INDĖLIŲ PALŪKANŲ NORMOS.................................................................................................................... 32 3.4. BANKŲ PASKOLŲ RINKA.................................................................................................................................... 32 3.4.1. PASKOLOS ........................................................................................................................................................ 32 3.4.2. EKONOMINIŲ VEIKLŲ KREDITAVIMAS .................................................................................................... 35 3.4.3. PASKOLŲ PALŪKANŲ NORMOS.................................................................................................................. 36 3.5. VERTYBINIŲ POPIERIŲ RINKA......................................................................................................................... 37 3.5.1. VYRIAUSYBĖS VERTYBINIŲ POPIERIŲ RINKA ....................................................................................... 37 2.5.2. BENDROVIŲ VERTYBINIŲ POPIERIŲ RINKA............................................................................................ 39 OFICIALIŲJŲ IR TARPBANKINĖS RINKOS PALŪKANŲ NORMŲ KAITA UŽSIENIO VALSTYBĖSE ................................................................................................................................................ 45 VAKARŲ VALSTYBĖS.................................................................................................................................................. 45 VIDURIO IR RYTŲ EUROPOS VALSTYBĖS............................................................................................................ 47 3 1. AKTUALŪS UŽSIENIO ŠALIŲ neigiamą eksporto indėlį antrąjį pusmetį, kai VALIUTŲ IR PINIGŲ POLITIKOS sustiprėjo euras ir išaugo naftos kainos. Todėl labai svarbu buvo didinti darbo našumą. 2004 m. jis POKYČIAI padidėjo 1,6 procento. 2004 m. buvęs didelis nedarbas, kuris metų 1.1. ECB IR JAV FRS PALŪKANŲ POLITIKA pabaigoje siekė 8,9 procento, taip pat atspindi struktūrinių reformų siekiant didinti darbo rinkos 1.1.1. ECB PALŪKANŲ POLITIKA lankstumą poreikį. Tai padėtų laiku atsirasti darbo užmokesčio pokyčiams ir kartu sumažinti nedarbą. Kaip ir per paskutinius dvejus metus, Europos Kylančios naftos kainos skatino ir kitų produktų centrinio banko (ECB) pinigų politika 2004 metais kainų augimą, todėl euro zonoje augo infliacija. Nuo išliko nuosaiki. Minimali siūloma pagrindinių antrojo 2004 m. ketvirčio vidurio iki pat metų refinansavimo operacijų palūkanų norma liko pabaigos infliacija buvo didesnė už tikslinį 2 nepakeista nuo 2003 m. birželio mėnesio – 2 procentų lygį. Didžiausią įtaką tokiam infliacijos procentai. Nepakeistos ir palūkanų už naudojimąsi padidėjimui turėjo kylančios energijos išlaidos ir ribinio skolinimosi bei indėlių galimybėmis normos išaugę netiesioginiai mokesčiai bei reguliuojamos – atitinkamai 3 procentai ir 1 procentas. kainos. Kita vertus, JAV dolerio atžvilgiu kylantis Nors 2004 m. jau buvo pastebima pasaulio ūkio euro kursas nemažai padėjo kompensuoti išaugusias atsigavimo tendencija, euro zonos ūkio augimas naftos kainas. išliko vangus – BVP išaugo tik 2 procentais. Dėl pastaraisiais metais nuolat didėjusio pinigų kiekio P3 likvidumo kiekis euro zonoje išliko Euro zonos BVP ir jo sudedamųjų veiksnių didesnis, nei jo reikėjo palaikyti neinfliacinį ūkio augimas 2004 m. kiekvieną ketvirtį (procentais augimą. Toks nuolatinis likvidumo perteklius bei palyginti su paskutiniuoju ketvirčiu): didėjanti skolinimosi paklausa didina grėsmę BVP veiksnys Ketvirtis finansiniam stabilumui. Vis dėlto ECB tikisi, kad, jei I II III IV BVP 0,7 0,5 0,2 0,2 nebus didesnių išorinių šokų, infliacija 2005 m. Namų ūkių vartojimas 0,8 0,0 0,1 0,5 pirmaisiais mėnesiais priartės prie 2 procentų lygio. Valdžios vartojimas 0,2 0,4 0,4 0,2 Kai kuriose euro zonos šalyse nuo metų pradžios Bendrojo pagrindinio -0,1 0,5 0,6 0,6 išliko įtampa dėl didelio biudžeto deficito. Stabilumo kapitalo formavimas ir plėtros pakte numatyta, kad biudžeto deficitas Atsargų pokytis 0,0 0,1 0,8 0,7 negali viršyti 3 procentų BVP. 2004 m. šio Prekių ir paslaugų 1,4 2,7 1,3 0,5 eksportas* reikalavimo neįvykdė Graikija (3,4%), Portugalija Prekių ir paslaugų (4,1%), Prancūzija (3,4%) ir Vokietija (3,9%), 0,4 2,4 3,1 1,0 importas* Nyderlandų biudžeto deficitas siekė 3 procentus BVP. Minėtos šalys sudaro didžiąją dalį euro zonos Euro zonos BVP sudedamųjų veiksnių indėlis BVP ekonomikos. augimui 2004 m. kiekvieną ketvirtį (procentiniais Mažas euro zonos vartotojų pasitikėjimas, punktais): augančios naftos kainos ir vis dar didelis nedarbas BVP veiksnys Ketvirtis neigiamai veikė vartojimą bei visą ekonominį I II III IV aktyvumą 2004 metais, ypač jų antroje pusėje. Namų ūkių vartojimas 0,4 0,0 0,0 0,3 Tačiau tokie veiksniai, kaip palankios skolinimosi Valdžios vartojimas 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 Bendrojo pagrindinio sąlygos, žema infliacija, augančios pelno maržos, 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,1 kapitalo formavimas palanki tarptautinė ekonominė aplinka ir struktūrinių Atsargų pokytis -0,1 0,1 0,7 -0,1 reformų pažanga, teigiamai veiks tolimesnę euro Grynasis eksportas 0,4 0,2 -0,7 -0,2 zonos ekonomikos raidą. Tikimasi, kad per šiuos * įskaitant euro zonos vidaus prekybą. metus ES ekonominis augimas pasieks potencialų Šaltinis: Economic forecasts Spring 2005, European Commission. augimo lygį, o 2006 metais dar paspartės: 2,1 procento euro zonoje ir 2,3 procento ES. Pirmąjį 2004 m. pusmetį BVP augo gana sparčiai, tačiau antrąjį pusmetį stabtelėjo. Tam svarbios įtakos turėjo vidaus paklausos augimas – pirmąjį pusmetį jis buvo per silpnas ir per trumpas, kad galėtų atsverti 4 FRS oficialiųjų palūkanų normų raida Palūkanų normų Tikslinė nakties Diskonto pakeitimas paskolų palūkanų palūkanų norma, įsigaliojo nuo norma, proc. proc. 2004 06 30 1,25 2,25 2004 08 10 1,50 2,50 2004 09 21 1,75 2,75 2004 11 10 2,00 3,00 2004 12 14 2,25 3,25 JAV gamybos lygis nuo šių metų pradžios nuosekliai augo, gerėjo darbo rinkos sąlygos. Infliacijos lygis 2004 m. pirmąjį pusmetį buvo šiek tiek aukštesnis nei prognozuota anksčiau, o per antrąjį pusmetį gerokai išaugo. Pagrindinė tai nulėmusi priežastis – padidėjusios naftos kainos. Komiteto vertinimu, artimiausiu metu subalansuoto ekonomikos augimo spartėjimo ar lėtėjimo tikimybė yra vienoda. 1.1.2. FRS PALŪKANŲ POLITIKA 2004 m. pirmąjį pusmetį, nepaisydamas nuolatinių finansų rinkų dalyvių raginimų, kritikos ir spaudimo, Federalinio rezervų banko Atvirosios rinkos komitetas (FARK) padidino federalinių fondų tikslinę palūkanų normą
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