Methodological Manual on Money, Banking and Financial Market Statistics in the Accession Countries
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Project Title: Risk and Uncertainty in Central Bank Communication
Uncertainty and monetary policy* David Mayes University of Auckland Alberto Montagnoli University of Stirling January 2011 Abstract: Using the minutes of decision-,making committee meetings we analyse how the Bank of England, the Czech National Bank and the Sveriges Riksbank communicate uncertainty in their discussion of the setting of a forward-looking monetary policy. The aim is to test whether information about uncertainty in the minutes helps explain interest rate settings. We find that to show the effect of uncertainty it needs to be clear what the uncertainty is about, output or inflation for example. We also show that there is a relationship between the level of uncertainty expressed and the degree of disagreement in the committees. JEL classification: E43, E52, E58 Keywords: communication, monetary policy, uncertainty, Taylor rule, Bank of England, Czech National Bank, Riksbank * We thank Petra Geraats and Cris Shore for detailed comments and Charlie Fahy for research assistance. We are also grateful to the participants at the seminar at the Europe Institute, University of Auckland at the workshop Central Bank Communication, Decision-Making and Governance for comments and discussions. Montagnoli gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Europe Institute, University of Auckland. 1 1. Introduction There has been growing interest in uncertainty in monetary policy-making, and in the communication of monetary policy. There are many sides to the problem, starting simply with the fact that the future is uncertain. Also central banks in particular (notably the ECB, the Bank of England and the US Fed) have sponsored research into model uncertainty.2 Attention has also been paid to the uncertainty faced by markets to which central banks can contribute by erratic or unclear decision making. -
Economics Wednesday BRIEF Europe News Analysis & Commentary
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of NICK FERRIS at BLOOMBERG/ 731 LEXINGTON 06.22.11 Economics WEDNESDAY Europe NEWS ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY BRIEF ECONOMIC CALENDAR Papandreou Wins Vote, Euro Falls, Fed Decision (LONDON TIME) ■ WHAT TO WATCH: The euro weakened against the dollar on concern Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will EUROPEAN DAYBOOK: COUNTRY TIME EVENT SURVEY PRIOR fail to pass austerity measures even after winning last night’s Louisa Fahy confidence vote. European Commission President Jose FR 07:45 Own-Company Prod. Outlook - 11 Barroso said the result ``removes an element of uncertainty FR 07:45 Production Outlook Indicator - 15 from an already very difficult situation.’’ The IMF said Spain must step up efforts to reform its economy. The Bank of England publishes the min- FR 07:45 Business Conf. Indicator 106 107 utes of its last meeting. U.S. Federal Reserve decisions on rates, bond purchases. DE 08:00 Consumer Conf. Indicator -0.5 2.6 ■ ECONOMICS: Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders (MoM) April; est. 1 percent, 10 SP 08:00 Mortgages-capital loaned YoY - -0.343 a.m. Euro Zone Consumer Confidence June; est. -10.4 (prior -9.8), 3 p.m. BOE minutes 9.30 a.m. Bank of Portugal monthly statistical report, 11 a.m. Trichet, King SP 08:00 Mortgages on Houses YoY - -0.202 speak at ESRB press conference, 5.30 p.m.. SW 08:00 Consumer Confidence 17 17.9 ■ GOVERNMENT: Italy’s Berlusconi speaks in parliament on government’s reshuf- fle, 10 a.m. Merkel briefs Bundestag Europe Committee on EU summit, 10.30 a.m. -
Features of Governing the Central Banks Candidate to the Eurosystem
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Procedia Economics and Finance 22 ( 2015 ) 522 – 530 2nd International Conference ‘Economic Scientific Research - Theoretical, Empirical and Practical Approaches’, ESPERA 2014, 13-14 November 2014, Bucharest, Romania Features of Governing the Central Banks Candidate to the Eurosystem Adina Cristea* a”Victor Slăvescu” Centre for Financial and Monetary Research, Casa Academiei 13, Calea 13 Septembrie, Building B, 5th floor, Bucharest, 050711, Romania Abstract The complexity of the European integration process consists of three implicative dimensions: the nominal dimension, the real dimension and the institutional dimension. Referring to the last one (the institutional dimension), the present paper aims to analyse the degree of ”convergence” functioning of the National Banks from the Euro Area candidates countries, as to identify some similarities and differences between these institutions. The research methodology consists of displaying some characteristics of the central banks engaged in the process of European monetary integration, taking into account aspects concerning both the attributes of their governance, and their position related to the financial stability objective, an increasingly important parameter to consider after the global financial crisis outbreak (GFC2007). A foothold for the paper is the economic literature which has been formulated some specific criteria for evaluating the elements considered. On the other hand, the institutional convergence does not guarantee the success of the economic integration of the candidate country to the Euro Area, but it could be an important benchmark for making comparison between countries which have been preparing to adopt Euro. © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2015 The Authors. -
Czech National Bank (CNB) Virtual Web Hosting
Czech National Bank (CNB) Virtual Web Hosting Data Center and Cloud The CNB is the central bank of the Czech Republic and the supervisor of the Czech financial market. Its primary objective is to maintain price stability. As an independent institution, the CNB sets monetary policy, issues banknotes and coins and manages the circulation of currency, the payment system and settlement between banks. It also performs supervision of the banking sector, the capital market, the insurance industry, pension funds, credit unions and electronic money institutions, as well as foreign exchange supervision. As a central bank the CNB provides banking services to the state and the public sector. The CNB’s headquarters is in Prague. Seven regional branches are located in Prague, Ústí nad Labem, Plzeň, České Budějovice, Hradec Králové, Brno and Ostrava. CNB // The ChalleNge CNB operated an external web with communication issues among the and was not sufficiently flexible content management systems three parties and unclear split for applications with varying on three dedicated servers. of responsibility. requirements. The solution had 2 subcontractors The original solution was not Finally, the system did not give (web servers and WCMS – able to cope with varying loads enough security and control Web Content Management of the web traffic during different over testing and develop- System) and CNB experienced periods of the day /month / year ment environment. Customer reference Why gTS // The SOlUTION GTS // SOlUTION DIagRaM The solution of private virtual data Internet center for Czech National Bank utilizes GTS Virtual Hosting built on the cloud environment of GTS IaaS platforms and existing redundant IPv4/IPv6 infrastructures which Edge router A Edge router B are also components of the cloud environment. -
List of Certain Foreign Institutions Classified As Official for Purposes of Reporting on the Treasury International Capital (TIC) Forms
NOT FOR PUBLICATION DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY JANUARY 2001 Revised Aug. 2002, May 2004, May 2005, May/July 2006, June 2007 List of Certain Foreign Institutions classified as Official for Purposes of Reporting on the Treasury International Capital (TIC) Forms The attached list of foreign institutions, which conform to the definition of foreign official institutions on the Treasury International Capital (TIC) Forms, supersedes all previous lists. The definition of foreign official institutions is: "FOREIGN OFFICIAL INSTITUTIONS (FOI) include the following: 1. Treasuries, including ministries of finance, or corresponding departments of national governments; central banks, including all departments thereof; stabilization funds, including official exchange control offices or other government exchange authorities; and diplomatic and consular establishments and other departments and agencies of national governments. 2. International and regional organizations. 3. Banks, corporations, or other agencies (including development banks and other institutions that are majority-owned by central governments) that are fiscal agents of national governments and perform activities similar to those of a treasury, central bank, stabilization fund, or exchange control authority." Although the attached list includes the major foreign official institutions which have come to the attention of the Federal Reserve Banks and the Department of the Treasury, it does not purport to be exhaustive. Whenever a question arises whether or not an institution should, in accordance with the instructions on the TIC forms, be classified as official, the Federal Reserve Bank with which you file reports should be consulted. It should be noted that the list does not in every case include all alternative names applying to the same institution. -
Monetary Policy of the Czech National Bank
making at the beginning of February, May, August and November. In the The CNB employs market instruments event of extraordinarily dramatic developments in the economy, however, MONETARY POLICY a new fast-track forecast can also be put together in the interim. in its monetary policymaking The Bank Board, however, holds a meeting regularly eight times a year; To implement its monetary policy decisions the CNB makes use of OF THE CZECH NATIONAL BANK besides already mentioned months also at the end of March, June, “indirect”, non-administrative market instruments. In other words, September and December. In these months, the Situation Report does he CNB makes monetary policy not by means of orders, prohibitions, not contain a new forecast but brings comparison of the latest key limits and suchlike, but by offering banks business transactions and macroeconomic figures with their forecast values, evaluates the situation commercial terms formulated in such a way that those banks in turn with respect to the possible future course of inflation, and updates the offer their partners transactions under terms the CNB views as desirable Principles, procedures, instruments The CNB is an independent at that particular moment. Through this basic mechanism, and via the uncertainties and risks attaching to the most recent forecast. Would you like to know a bit more about the Czech National Bank and open institution channels described earlier (i.e. via client interest rates, the Exchange than what you can find in the newspapers? The following fact sheet The meeting of the Bank Board usually begins at 9 a.m. with a discussion rate, etc.), the CNB’s monetary policy aims gradually spread through In the pursuit of its statutory objective, the CNB has a high degree will guide you around the world of the CNB. -
CEE Qu 3-08.Qxd
Analysis of the UniCredit Group CEE Research Network CEE Quarterly 03 2008 For authors see last page Imprint Disclaimer Published by UniCredit Group/Bank Austria Creditanstalt Aktiengesellschaft This document (the “Document”) has been prepared by UniCredito Italiano S.p.A. and its http://www.unicreditgroup.eu controlled companies1 (collectively the “UniCredit Group”). The Document is for information http://www.bankaustria.at purposes only and is not intended as (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to sell or to buy any financial instrument and/or (ii) a professional advice in relation to any investment decision. Edited by CEE Research Department The Document is being distributed by electronic and ordinary mail to professional investors and [email protected] may not be redistributed, reproduced, disclosed or published in whole or in part. Information, Bernhard Sinhuber, Phone +43 (0)50505-41964 opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein have been obtained from or are based upon sources believed by the UniCredit Group to be reliable but no representation or warranty, Produced by Bank Austria Identity & Communications Department, express or implied, is made and no responsibility, liability and/or indemnification obligation shall Editorial Desk ([email protected]), be borne by the UniCredit Group vis-à-vis any recipient of the present Document and/or any Phone +43 (0)50505-56141 third party as to the accuracy, completeness and/or correctness of any information contained in the Document. The UniCredit Group is involved in several businesses and transactions that may Printed by Holzhausen relate directly or indirectly to the content of the Document. -
Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area ——— Methodological Annex
Analyses of the Czech Republic’s Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area ——— Methodological Annex Analyses the Czechof Republic’s CurrentEconomic Alignment thewith Euro Area ——— Czech National Bank www.cnb.cz A —— Introduction 2 A INTRODUCTION This methodological annex accompanies the main text of the Analyses of the Czech Republic’s current economic alignment with the euro area and presents their theoretical foundations (section B), the motivation for the individual analyses (section C) and the literature used (section D). This annex is available as a separate document on the CNB website at <https://www.cnb.cz/euro-area-accession>. It will be updated as needed, i.e. not necessarily every year. Czech National Bank ——— Analyses of the Czech Republic’s Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area ——— Methodological Annex B —— Theoretical foundations 3 B THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS The basic theoretical starting point for examining whether individual countries are good candidates for introducing a single currency is the theory of optimum currency areas.1 In the context of the creation of the single European currency, knowledge of this theory is often used to assess the appropriateness of the adoption of the euro by the existing euro area countries and the rationality of the same step for the new EU Member States.2 Factors that contribute to the benefits of the single currency (compared to a free nominal exchange rate) make up the set of optimum currency area properties. Economists agree on the general fundamental costs and benefits of introducing a single currency, but the significance of the individual arguments may change over time or depending on the specific features of the economies concerned. -
Zdenek Tuma: Present and Future Challenges for the Czech National Bank (Central Bank Articles and Speeches)
Zdenek Tuma: Present and future challenges for the Czech National Bank Introductory remarks by Mr Zdenek Tuma, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the CNB Conference: ”Challenges of EU Accession”, Prague, 1 April 2003. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, dear colleagues, It is my pleasure and honour to welcome you here to the Czech National Bank for what I believe will be a very interesting policy-oriented conference. The Czech National Bank is this year celebrating a decade of its existence as the central bank of the Czech Republic. When we look back at that period, we can see many difficult challenges that we had to face in order to facilitate the economic transition and later on to bring our operations into line with best international practices. This experience is similar for all other central banks in the post-communist EU-accession countries. But I do not want to speak about those past challenges today. They are mostly behind us, and our situation is now very different. Therefore, I would like to be forward-looking - as any modern central banker should - and to speak about the challenges that we all share at present and, most importantly, about those that lie ahead. As you all know, the accession treaties will be signed in two weeks. This will be a symbolic milestone in the EU integration process, which has been going on in the economic and political sphere for many years. The implications of this process for monetary policy - and economic policies in general - have been debated extensively on many occasions. These academic discussions have covered the pros and cons of EU and EMU accession, its optimal timing, the associated risks and so on. -
Should We Care About Central Bank Profits?
Policy Contribution Issue n˚13 | September 2018 Should we care about central bank profits? Francesco Chiacchio, Grégory Claeys and Francesco Papadia Executive summary Central banks are not profit-maximising institutions; their objectives are rather of Francesco Chiacchio macroeconomic nature. The European Central Bank’s overriding objective is price stability. (francesco.chiacchio@ Nevertheless, there are three good reasons to conclude that it is preferable for central banks to bruegel.org ) is a Research achieve profits rather than to record losses. Assistant at Bruegel First, taxpayers endow central banks with large amounts of resources and one should be worried if this amount of resources did not produce any income. In a way, the efficient use Grégory Claeys (gregory. by the central bank of the financial resources with which it is endowed is as relevant as the [email protected]) is a efficient use of the human resources at its disposal. Research Fellow at Bruegel Second, financial strength could affect the ability of monetary authorities to fulfil their mandates. In particular there is the fear that a central bank incurring systematic losses and Francesco Papadia ending up with negative capital would find it difficult to effectively pursue its macroeconomic (francesco.papadia@ objective. bruegel.org ) is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel Third, profitable operations might be an indication that central banks are implement- ing the right policies: to achieve profits the central bank must purchase assets when they are undervalued and sell when they are overvalued, thus stabilising their prices. The authors are grateful to David Pichler for help with Overall, the Eurosystem has so far respected the principle of it being better to realise data handling. -
Central Bank Monitoring – December
CENTRAL BANK MONITORING – DECEMBER 2 Monetary and Statistics Department Monetary Policy and Fiscal Analyses Division 201 1 In this issue Economic activity in advanced economies remains subdued. A permanent euro area rescue mechanism (the ESM) was launched at the start of October. The Eurogroup approved further financial assistance for Greece. However, the euro area debt crisis continues to be surrounded by considerable uncertainty. In Switzerland, activity on the mortgage market is rising sharply and household indebtedness is increasing in parallel. The topic of high household debt was also discussed in the Sveriges Riksbank. In September, the Fed announced a further round of quantitative easing (QE3). The central banks of Hungary and Poland lowered their key interest rates. The Swiss National Bank is still maintaining the minimum exchange rate of the franc to the euro at CHF 1.20/EUR. The remaining central banks under review left their interest rates unchanged and stable rates are expected in the coming quarter for all the monitored central banks. In Spotlight we focus on the composition of the top decision-making bodies of central banks. Our Selected Speech summarises a speech given by SNB board member Fritz Zurbrügg on the challenges posed by the growth in the Swiss central bank’s foreign exchange reserves. Czech National Bank / Central Bank Monitoring LATEST DEVELOPMENTS 2 1. LATEST MONETARY POLICY DEVELOPMENTS AT SELECTED CENTRAL BANKS Key central banks of the Euro-Atlantic area Euro area (ECB) USA (Fed) United Kingdom (BoE) Inflation -
Results on the FISIM Tests on Maturity and Default Risk
SNA/M1.13/02 8th Meeting of the Advisory Expert Group on National Accounts, 29-31 May 2013, Luxembourg Agenda item: 2 Topic: FISIM Introduction During 2011/2012, tests were carried out in Europe on the inclusion/exclusion of maturity and credit default risk, as recommended by the European Task force on FISIM. Based on the results of these tests the EU Directors of Macro-economic Statistics (DMES) decided, in November 2012, to keep the present FISIM allocation method. This means that, in the 2010 ESA, a single reference rate based on inter-bank loans and deposits will continued to be applied, and that the default risk will not be excluded from FISIM. The ISWGNA Task Force on FISIM assessed the report of the European Task force based on a note by the ISWGNA containing a summary of the results of the FISIM-exercise, as conducted by the EU countries and two non-EU respondents. The summary also includes the main issues related to the debate on credit default risk. Guidance on documentation provided The final report of the ISWGNA FISIM Task Force. Main issues to be discussed The AEG is asked to provide opinions on the following recommendations made in the report: • For international trade in FISIM: FISIM should be calculated by at least two groups of currencies (national and foreign currency). • The reference rate for a specific currency need not be the same for FISIM providers resident in different economies. Although they should be expected, under normal circumstances, to be relatively close and so national statistics agencies are encouraged to use partner country information where national estimates are not available.