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CEE Cover 4-08.Qxd Analysis of the UniCredit Group CEE Research Network CEE Quarterly 04 2008 For authors see last page Imprint Disclaimer Published by UniCredit Bank Austria AG This document (the “Document”) has been prepared by UniCredito Italiano S.p.A. and its http://www.unicreditgroup.eu controlled companies1 (collectively the “UniCredit Group”). The Document is for information http://www.bankaustria.at purposes only and is not intended as (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to sell or to buy any financial instrument and/or (ii) a professional advice in relation to any investment decision. Edited by CEE Research Department The Document is being distributed by electronic and ordinary mail to professional investors and [email protected] may not be redistributed, reproduced, disclosed or published in whole or in part. Information, Bernhard Sinhuber, Phone +43 (0)50505-41964 opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein have been obtained from or are based upon sources believed by the UniCredit Group to be reliable but no representation or warranty, Produced by Bank Austria Identity & Communications Department, express or implied, is made and no responsibility, liability and/or indemnification obligation shall Editorial Desk ([email protected]), be borne by the UniCredit Group vis-à-vis any recipient of the present Document and/or any Phone +43 (0)50505-56141 third party as to the accuracy, completeness and/or correctness of any information contained in the Document. The UniCredit Group is involved in several businesses and transactions that may Printed by Holzhausen relate directly or indirectly to the content of the Document. Accordingly, the UniCredit Group may hold a position or act as market maker in any financial instrument mentioned in the Document. Layout by Skibar Grafik-Design Information, which is not reflected in the Document, may therefore be available to persons connected with the UniCredit Group. The Document has been approved for distribution in UK by Closing Date: 3rd October 2008 the London branch of UniCredit Banca Mobiliare S.p.A., regulated by the FSA for the conduct of investment business in the UK. It has not been approved for distribution to or for the use of private customers, as defined by the rules of the FSA. The Document may not be distributed in USA, Canada, Japan or Australia. 1) Including Koc Financial Service A.S., a joint venture established pursuant to the laws of Turkey, of which UniCredit Italiano S.p.A. has a 50 % shareholding. The definition of “control” is pursuant to Italian laws. U2 I CEE Quarterly 04/2008 Contents 2 Macroeconomic Scenario 6 EU Members 6 Bulgaria 10 Czech Republic 14 Estonia 16 Hungary 20 Latvia 22 Lithuania 24 Poland 28 Romania 32 Slovakia 36 Slovenia 38 EU Candidates and Other Countries 38 Croatia 42 Turkey 46 Bosnia and Herzegovina 48 Kazakhstan 50 Russia 54 Serbia 56 Ukraine 58 Annex 58 Country ratings – foreign currency long term debt 58 Country ceiling ratings scale 59 Credit Defaults Swaps 59 Money market interest rates 59 Exchange rates – ECB methodology 60 Banking network 60 UniCredit Group CEE banking network – Headquarters CEE Quarterly 04/2008 I 1 CEE Quarterly Macroeconomic Scenario Regional outlook 2008–2009 Real GDP Inflation Interest rate Exchange rate Current account/ Fiscal Balance/ eop. eop. eop. GDP GDP 2008 2009 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 Central Europe Czech Rep. 4.0 3.2 5.3 2.8 3.50 3.50 3.50 26.6 25.7 25.0 –3.4 –2.7 –2.3 –2.9 Hungary 2.5 3.3 5.3 3.0 7.50 8.50 7.00 253.4 245.0 243.0 –4.4 –4.1 –3.6 –3.2 Poland 5.2 4.2 4.0 3.3 5.00 6.00 5.50 3.58 3.42 3.47 –5.4 –5.6 –2.5 –2.3 Slovakia 7.5 6.0 3.6 4.4 4.25 4.25 ECB 33.6 30.1 EUR –4.6 –4.0 –2.0 –1.7 Slovenia 5.1 4.0 6.4 4.6 ECB ECB ECB EUR EUR EUR –5.1 –5.0 –0.3 –0.3 Baltics & SEE Estonia –1.2 1.7 8.0 6.0 7.2 6.3 5.2 15.65 15.65 15.65 –11.1 –11.9 –1.2 –1.0 Latvia 0.5 0.4 11.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 5.5 0.70 0.70 0.70 –14.5 –12.8 –0.9 0.1 Lithuania 4.7 3.8 9.9 6.2 7.2 5.6 4.7 3.45 3.45 3.45 –11.9 –11.2 –0.9 –0.9 Bosnia-H. 5.8 4.8 6.5 3.4 4.8 4.6 3.9 1.96 1.96 1.96 –15.3 –13.6 –0.5 –1.8 Bulgaria 6.3 4.2 10.3 8.0 4.7 5.5 5.9 1.96 1.96 1.96 –23.5 –20.2 3.5 3.0 Croatia 3.7 3.2 5.1 3.9 6.7 5.8 5.5 7.33 7.28 7.25 –10.3 –8.9 –1.4 –1.7 Romania 8.0 4.8 6.2 4.8 7.50 10.25 9.50 3.61 3.60 3.70 –13.5 –13.0 –3.2 –3.0 Serbia 7.0 5.3 9.5 7.7 10.0 15.8 13.5 79.2 76.0 75.0 –17.0 –13.6 –2.0 –3.0 EU Candidates and other Countries Kazakhstan 3.8 4.2 11.7 8.6 12.35 7.00 7.50 177.2 174.0 167.0 3.5 –0.8 –1.1 –1.1 Russia 7.4 6.0 13.0 11.7 6.82 8.00 7.40 35.9 36.2 35.1 7.5 4.6 6.5 3.0 Turkey 4.2 4.6 11.0 7.8 15.75 16.75 15.75 1.71 1.81 1.88 –6.5 –6.7 –1.6 –1.4 Ukraine 6.3 4.2 20.3 10.8 8.0 8.3 6.8 7.42 7.18 7.02 –7.2 –8.9 –1.4 –3.0 Source: UniCredit Group CEE Research Network. Global financial and economic weakness testing CEE Latvia (now at 430, 254 and 330, respectively). Risk pricing, although One year after the beginning of the international financial turmoil, high already high, also increased in South Eastern European countries (CDS uncertainty and volatility persist at the global level, with no signs of spreads are currently above 200 bps in Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia) abating. The US economy continues to perform poorly and signs of a and Turkey, where CDS spreads are now close to 300 bps. While Cen- slowdown are now materialising also in the eurozone. Strong inflation tral European countries have also been affected by a surge in CDS and declining employment are taking their toll on households’ spending, spreads in the last month, they continue to enjoy a relatively lower risk while a low level of construction activity – likely to persist for the whole perception than other countries in the region and – with the exception forecasting period – will reflect the weakening capital formation until of Hungary – their CDS spreads are far below 100 bps. mid-2009, which will in turn slow down investment. With a large share of CEE exports being directed towards the eurozone which is experienc- Going on declining world growth will reflect the high uncertainty, ing declining growth, the situation is anything but favourable for CEE. volatility and strong risk aversion characterising international markets, with a negative effect on international capital flows. The financial sector crisis is deepening, moving from the US to the UK and to Western Europe. Stock markets have been dropping for weeks, Growth to decelerate from 5.8 % in 2008 to 4.9 % in 2009 liquidity is becoming an issue for the financial industry, while risk aver- While growth has so far remained quite strong throughout the CEE re- sion is increasing sharply. Such a scenario is clearly unsupportive for gion, the gloomy international outlook will take its toll in 2009. High emerging markets and for CEE. vulnerability and cost of risk combined with lower demand in the euro- zone will lead to a slowing of GDP growth from 5.8 % in 2008 to 4.9 % The repricing of CEE market risk has clearly intensified in line with in 2009, with some recovery in 2010 (5.2 %). global trends. The 5Y CDS spread, though being a quite illiquid mea- sure in some of the countries, is peaking, and strongly penalising those High dependency on capital inflows and cost of risk countries which show macroeconomic imbalances (see chart 1). The the main contagion channel for CEE … CDS spread for Ukraine is now trading at more than 700 bps, while the We identify the high dependency on capital inflows and cost of risk as spread more than doubled in the last month in Kazakhstan, Russia and the main contagion channel for CEE. Most of the CEE countries are run- 2 I CEE Quarterly 04/2008 Chart 1 Chart 2 Clear repricing of risks (5Y USD CDS Spread1) High dependency on capital inflows 300 700 Ukraine 250 600 200 500 150 3 400 Kazakhstan Turkey 100 Russia Latvia Cost of risk 300 Serbia Romania 50 Estonia Lithuania 200 Hungary Bulgaria 0 2 Croatia Poland 100 Current Slovakia Czech Rep. 31. 07. 2007 07. 31. 2007 12. 31. 2008 03. 31. 2008 04.
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