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Smart Defense and the Future of NATO: Can the Alliance Meet the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century?

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Smart Defense and the Future of NATO: Can the Alliance Meet the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century? The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, founded in 1922 as The Chicago Council on Foreign Relations, is a leading independent, nonpartisan organization committed to infl uencing the discourse on global issues through contributions to opinion and policy formation, leadership dialogue, and public learning. Smart Defense and the Future of NATO: Can the Alliance Meet the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century? conference report and expert papers March 28-30, 2012 Presented by In Partnership With 332.South.Michigan.Avenue. Suite.1100.. .Chicago,.Illinois.60604 thechicagocouncil .org Smart Defense and the Future of NATO: Can the Alliance Meet the Challenges of the Twenty-First Century? March 28-30, 2012 Chicago, Illinois Conference Report and Expert Papers Dr. Lisa Aronsson and Dr. Molly O’Donnell Conference Report Coauthors Presented by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs This conference and publication were generously supported by: NATO Public Diplomacy Finmeccanica UK Ltd Robert Bosch Stiftung Consulate General of Canada in Chicago Saab Cooper Family Foundation Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung DePaul University The Chicago Council on Global Affairs is a leading independent, nonpartisan organization committed to influenc- ing the discourse on global issues through contributions to opinion and policy formation, leadership dialogue, and public learning. The Chicago Council provides members, specialized groups, and the general public with a forum for the consideration of significant international issues and their bearing on American foreign policy. In addition to remaining the premier platform in the Midwest for international leaders in foreign policy, The Chicago Council strives to take the lead in gaining recognition for Chicago as an international business center for the corporate community and to broaden and deepen The Chicago Council’s role in the community. THE CHICAGO COUNCIL TAKES NO INSTITUTIONAL POSITION ON POLICY ISSUES AND HAS NO AFFILIATION WITH THE U.S. GOVERNMENT. ALL STATEMENTS OF FACT AND EXPRESSIONS OF OPINION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AUTHORS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THEIR RESPECTIVE ORGANIZATIONS OR THE PROJECT FUNDERS. For further information about The Chicago Council or this project, please write to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 332 South Michigan Avenue, Suite 1100, Chicago, IL, 60604. Visit The Chicago Council’s Web site at thechicagocouncil.org as well as the Council’s NATO and G8 microsite, 2012summits.org. © 2012 by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form (beyond that copying permitted by sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law and excerpts by reviewers for the public press), without written permission from the publisher. For information, write to The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 332 South Michigan Avenue, Suite 1100, Chicago, IL, 60604. Table of Contents Foreword . v Conference.Report. 1 NATO’s.Inward.Outlook:.Global.Burden.Shifting Josef.Braml. 18 Focused.Engagement:.NATO’s.Political.Ambitions.in.a.Changing.Strategic.Context Henning.Riecke. 25 Challenges.for.the.Security.Sector.in.Afghanistan:.How.to.Save.Reform Beata.Górka-Winter. 32 NATO.and.Crisis.Management.Operations:.A.Canadian.Perspective Elinor.Sloan . 37 Smart.Defense Camille.Grand. 45 NATO-Russia.Relations:.Toward.a.“Strategic.Partnership”?. Isabelle.François.. .50 NATO,.Russia,.and.the.Vision.of.a.Euro-Atlantic.Security.Community Dmitri.Trenin. 55 NATO.and.the.Middle.East:.A.Positive.Agenda.for.Change Jonathan.Eyal. .59 Turkey’s.NATO.Agenda:.What.Role.in.the.Middle.East? Lieutenant.General.S¸adi.Ergüvenç.(Ret .). .63 The.Transatlantic.Bargain.after.Gates Barry.Pavel.and.Jeff.Lightfoot. .67 Conference.Participants .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..71 Conference.Agenda. 75 Foreword In June 2011 outgoing U.S. Secretary of Defense goes on. How will NATO choose to invest in col- Robert Gates repeated in public what many had lective security? How can the Chicago summit privately acknowledged: NATO, the lynchpin of promote a more capable alliance? How will the alli- European security and transatlantic relations, ance integrate new partners into operations with- faces “the real possibility [of] a dim, if not dismal out diluting its potency and flexibility? How can future.” The experiences in Afghanistan and Libya NATO devise a strategy in line with its ambitions? have pointed to the consequences of chronically Where should the alliance place its focus in light of underfunding defense establishments, the dif- America’s strategic pivot toward the Asia Pacific? ficulties in getting twenty-eight sovereign states to These questions compelled The Chicago commit resources equitably and predictably, and Council on Global Affairs, in partnership with eight the challenges of responding effectively to new, institutions from NATO member countries, to rapidly emerging threats. The transatlantic alliance bring together leading thinkers and policy practi- must confront a number of fundamental strategic tioners in late March 2012 for a two-and-a-half-day questions about its future. conference, titled “Smart Defense and the Future It is good timing, then, that the 2012 NATO of NATO: Can the Alliance Meet the Challenges of summit—to be held in Chicago on May 20-21—is the Twenty-First Century?” Participants engaged quickly approaching. Some fifty heads of state and in a focused examination of the challenges and government from NATO member states and ISAF opportunities confronting the transatlantic alli- partner nations will arrive at Chicago’s McCormick ance in a time of changing threats and constrained Place for two days of deliberations. The most press- resources. This report and the accompanying ing issue will be the war in Afghanistan. Following papers, which the Council commissioned in sup- the May 1 signing in Kabul of the U.S.-Afghan port of the conference, serve as a useful framework Strategic Partnership Agreement by Presidents for understanding and discussing these issues in Obama and Karzai, alliance leaders will give consid- advance of the Chicago summit. erable attention in Chicago to shaping the contours The Chicago Council has a rich history of col- of a wider NATO-Afghan partnership post-2014. laboration with transatlantic research institutions Beyond Afghanistan, leaders will no doubt have and foundations. For more than thirty years, the many notable items for discussion: defense spend- Council hosted the Atlantic Conference, a bien- ing in an age of austerity, NATO’s Smart Defense nial event that brought together North American, initiative, the alliance’s expanding global network European, and Latin American thought leaders and of strategic partnerships, missile defense—the list decision makers. The last one, convened in 2006 in Smart Defen S e a n D t h e f u t u r e o f n a t o v partnership with Real Instituto Elcano in Madrid, strong execution is thanks to the Council’s special focused on migration and migrant integration. events team, which includes January Zell, Elizabeth The Council cosponsored a conference on home- Lulla, and Carrie McAlpin. Elisa Miller and Anna land security in 2007 with London’s Royal United Edwards were instrumental in securing sponsor- Services Institute. And last year, the Council pub- ship and funding support. Samantha Skinner and lished The Transatlantic Alliance in a Multipolar Nadine Apelian Dobbs managed the communi- World, a report that bundled five working papers cations strategy and media outreach. Jon Macha, on topics such as “NATO’s Nonproliferation Craig Kafura, and Rick Dembinski coordinated Challenges” and “NATO and the Protection of the the Council’s social media platforms and online Commons.” content. Program consultant Jillian Ridderbos and This year’s conference brought together part- interns Abhit Bhandari and Janice Shon provided ners both old and new. We are grateful to the valuable project support. Catherine Hug was the following institutions for their support, collabo- editor for the report and commissioned papers. ration, and camaraderie: The Atlantic Council of This conference report and expert papers serve the United States, Canadian International Council as a fitting “scene setter” for the NATO summit in (CIC), Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Chicago. Institute (CDFAI), Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS), the German Council on Foreign Marshall M. Bouton Relations (DGAP), Global Political Trends Center President (GPoT) of Istanbul Kültür University, the Polish The Chicago Council on Global Affairs Institute of International Affairs (PISM), and the May 2012 Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The Chicago Council and its partners are sin- cerely grateful to the following organizations for their generous support of our March conference and this accompanying publication: NATO Public Diplomacy, Finmeccanica UK Ltd, the Robert Bosch Stiftung, the Consulate General of Canada in Chicago, Saab, the Cooper Family Foundation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, and DePaul University. Lastly, I would like to extend my appreciation to the members of The Chicago Council staff and its advisors who made this conference and publication possible. The Council’s vice president of studies, Dr. Rachel Bronson, oversaw the conference’s plan- ning and execution. Ambassador Fay Hartog Levin, senior advisor on European affairs to the Council, provided invaluable
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