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Scotland’s 2011 Census

RGS-IBG International conference

Cecilia Macintyre, 27 2014 Overview

Some history

Processes to get to the final data set

Some of the key results so far

Results still to come

Census Data Explorer History

Census day - 27 March 2011

23rd census since 1801

Lots of planning and preparatory activity

“Traditional” census approach: 95% of census questionnaires hand-delivered, 5% by post

94% response rate - 20% questionnaires completed online

From 94% to 100%...

Load & Remove False Capture data Validation persons

Resolve Multiple Filter Rules Imputation Responses

Estimate Impute skeleton Assign output missing returns records areas

Derive variables Disclosure Outputs for output Control database Dual system estimation Census population: 5,295,403, estimated with 95 per cent confidence to be accurate to within +/- 23,000 (0.44 per cent).

See scotlandscensus website for more detail on methodology Quality assurance process

Carried out agreed series of simple univariate checks at early stages.

Benefits of early sight of data was that feedback could be provided to processing team

Developed systems and tools to be used throughout process and for dissemination of quality information

What did we find?

Processing had missed out some variables – back to the beginning

What we expected - respondents don’t do what you always expect

Initial findings raised issues with coding and ways in which some questions were answered What did we do about it? Carried out more in-depth checks , prioritising key data used in first release

Analysed data for issues which would cause problems in later processes, in particular edit and imputation

Recoded some text responses including and language

Sometimes nothing – but will report quality to users Some issues identified

Issues with specific questions

• Marital status • Travel to school (and students in general) • Central heating and long term conditions write in

Geography issues • Best fit geography for datazones • Treatment of potentially disclosive slivers

Address coding • Workplace flows (ongoing)

Example

2001 Data zones can be created by either aggregating up:

• 2011 postcodes

• 2011 output areas.

2 versions of data zone creation

2011 Postcodes 2011 Output areas Geographic differences

1686 2436

700 1393

2011 Postcodes 2011 Output areas

Data zone boundary S01001102 S01001109 Uses of data zone population statistics

If you are looking to do a comparison of population or number of over the years, the data set created from 2011 postcodes would be your best option.

However, for all future releases of the census data zone estimates will be of those aggregated from 2011 Output areas.

Data zone boundaries are currently being reviewed Additional data published

2001 Data zones: Population and Estimates – Comparison between 2001 and 2011 Censuses http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/theme/population/estimates/special-area/sape/2001- data-zones.html

Some issues to be aware of

The total population of datazones in a council area does not exactly match the published council area population

Difference in council population

Glasgow/North 617 East /East 127 City/ 102 Geography – Output areas

46,351 output areas created for 2011 Created as groups of postcodes Minimum thresholds 50 persons and 20 households First release of results December 2012 Media coverage

“ in baby boom as under- fives up 18%”

“What we learned from the Census 2011: More women, more OAPs, more people.” BBC online The

“Scotland becomes ‘a “Almost two thirds of “Home alone: how single- more colourful ’” Scotland's residents are person households now 'Scottish only' ” STV prevail across Scotland” BBC online Herald online “Census shows decline in Gaelic speakers 'slowed' ” “Challenge to the as number of Scots without a BBC religion at new high” “Number of foreign nationals in Aberdeen triples” Evening Express Scotland’s population

More people: Scotland’s population was 5.3 million on 27 March 2011, the highestScotland’s ever Census Population grew by over 0.2 million (4.6 per cent) since 2001 An ageing populationRelease: 2A 17 per cent of population aged 65 and over (including 34,000 people aged 90 or over) 16 per cent of population aged under 15 (under 5s up)

New question -

Proportion of population by national identity, Scotland, 2011

Ethnicity by National Identity Ethnicity and country of birth Language other than English spoken at home

Scots Polish Gaelic Urdu Punjabi Chinese French German Spanish Arabic Italian Cantonese Russian Hindi

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000

Number of people aged 3 and over Gaelic speakers by Scottish Parliamentary Constituency

Na h-Eileanan an Iar has 14,092 speakers

Skye, and has 6,385 speakers

Glasgow Kelvin has 1,419 speakers Long term health condition

No condition

One or more conditions

Other condition

Physical disability

Deafness or partial hearing loss

Mental health condition

Blindness or partial sight loss

Learning difficulty

Developmental disorder

Learning disability

0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000

Number of people Results still to come

Release 3 – remaining multi-variate tables on tenure and housing Origin-destination statistics Census microdata files (Samples of Anonymised Records) Alternative population statistics, eg workplace population Commissioned tables service Analytical reports Capturing the uses and benefits

Activity throughout 2014 to answer questions such as: What are you using the data for? How do you intend to use the data? What can NRS do to ensure you get the most out of it? What is in the way of your making best use?

Feeds Benefits Realisation for Census 2011 and also looking ahead to and the future of census statistics.

Census Data Explorer Quick, easy (and FREE!) online to the results from Scotland’s 2011 Census

All the standard output tables for all the available geographies

Area profiles

Data visualisations and maps online

Range of supporting information

Questions/ further information

All data available at: www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk Also sign up there for our e-newsletter Follow us on Twitter: @NatRecordsScot

Enquiries: [email protected]

Do it all again in 2021? Thank you

Area profiles

“Data tourist”, eg community groups, , local residents

“Snapshot” profiles of census results for a chosen area

Can choose another area to compare against (Scotland comparisons always available)