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Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine

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Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine Public Opinion Survey of Residents of Ukraine April 21 – May 5, 2017 Methodology • The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research. • The survey was conducted throughout Ukraine (except for the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas) from April 21 to May 5, 2017 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of 2,400 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by g e n d e r, age, region and the size of settlement. An additional 1,378 respondents were also surveyed in the Ukrainian-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection. • Stage One: The territory of Ukraine was split into 25 administrative regions (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). The survey was conducted throughout all regions of Ukraine, with the exception of the occupied territories of Crimea and the Donbas. • Stage Two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • Cities with a population of more than 1 million • Cities with a population of between 500,000 and 999,000 • Cities with a population of between 100,000 and 499,000 • Cities with a population of between 50,000 and 99,000 • Cities with a population of up to 50,000 • Villages • Cities and villages were selected at random. The number of selected cities/villages in each region was proportional to the share of the population living in cities/villages of a certain type in each region. • Stage Three: primary sampling points (PSP) were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2 percent. • The average response rate was 64.2 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the Government of Canada. 2 Methodology Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts Oversample • An oversample was conducted in the Ukrainian-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts from from April 21 to May 5, 2017 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. • The sample consisted of 1,378 citizens of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. The sample is representative in terms of g e n d e r, age, and size of settlement. A multi-stage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection. • Stage One: The sample was proportionally split between Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, in the areas controlled by the Government of Ukraine. • Stage Two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to their size: • Cities with population of more than 1 million • Cities with population of between 500,000 and 999,000 • Cities with population of between 100,000 and 499,000 • Cities with population of between 50,000 and 99,000 • Cities with population of up to 50,000 • Villages • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of the population living in a particular type of settlement in each region. • Stage Three: primary sampling points (PSP) were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.6 percent. • The average response rate was 67.3 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. 3 Geographical Key Donbas Region *Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, residents of Crimea and the separatist-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts were not included in this poll. 4 Mood of the Country Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer 80% 76% 71% 71% 72% 70% 72% 72% 69% 68% 70% 66% 64% 60% 51% 48% 50% 40% 34% 29% 30% 20% 18% 20% 16% 16% 17% 17% 15% 15% 13% 15% 15% 20% 18% 15% 17% 10% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13% 13% 13% 11% 11% 0% Nov. May May Feb. Apr. Sept. July Sept. Nov. Feb. June Sept. Apr. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 6 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened a lot Difficult to answer April 2017 <1% 3% 20% 36% 37% 4% September 2016 2% 20% 34% 40% 3% June 2016 2% 15% 33% 45% 4% February 2016 1% 10% 34% 54% 2% November 2015 2% 14% 37% 44% 3% September 2015 1% 2% 14% 31% 51% 1% July 2015 2% 8% 28% 60% 2% September 2014 1% 11% 29% 57% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7 As far as you know, how has the GDP of Ukraine changed over the last 12 months? 7% It has grown 36% 19% It hasn’t changed It has decreased Difficult to answer 38% 8 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened a lot Difficult to answer April 2017 3% 23% 34% 37% 2% September 2016 <1% 2% 23% 37% 36% 2% June 2016 2% 18% 38% 40% 2% February 2016 1% 15% 36% 47% 1% November 2015 2% 20% 36% 40% 2% September 2015 1% 2% 18% 34% 45% 1% July 2015 1% 14% 29% 55% 1% September 2014 2% 19% 37% 40% 2% April 2014 1% 4% 37% 34% 22% 3% March 2014 3% 46% 29% 18% 3% February 2014 1% 8% 44% 31% 14% 2% September 2013 1% 9% 41% 30% 17% 2% May 2013 1% 8% 46% 30% 14% 1% September 2012 1% 14% 37% 27% 15% 5% May 2012 9% 45% 30% 13% 3% March 2012 1% 6% 39% 34% 18% 3% November 2011 1% 6% 37% 36% 18% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9 Over the last 6 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed? 2% <1% 4% 28% 32% Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Difficult to answer 34% 10 In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen a lot Difficult to answer April 2017 9% 28% 25% 21% 16% September 2016 8% 24% 27% 27% 14% June 2016 1% 8% 21% 25% 27% 19% February 2016 1% 6% 21% 23% 31% 18% November 2015 1% 7% 21% 32% 23% 16% September 2015 2% 11% 25% 23% 27% 12% July 2015 1% 9% 19% 24% 27% 20% September 2014 1% 10% 14% 23% 35% 17% April 2014 1% 10% 13% 26% 43% 8% March 2014 1% 12% 16% 26% 35% 11% February 2014 1% 9% 20% 31% 28% 12% September 2013 2% 12% 27% 29% 17% 13% May 2013 1% 8% 38% 29% 12% 12% September 2012 2% 17% 31% 24% 11% 16% May 2012 1% 13% 35% 26% 11% 14% March 2012 1% 8% 32% 32% 15% 12% November 2011 1% 7% 30% 32% 17% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 11 Do you think it is acceptable for groups of people to use each of the following methods of protests? Fully acceptable More acceptable than not More unacceptable than acceptable Not at all acceptable Difficult to answer Collecting signatures for 52% 34% 5% 6% 5% petitions, letters Legal demonstrations 35% 39% 10% 9% 6% Legal strikes 28% 36% 13% 15% 8% Boycott 27% 34% 16% 13% 9% Demonstrations without 13% 23% 32% 23% 9% permission Strikes without permission 10% 20% 31% 29% 10% Blocking major roads 6% 13% 23% 50% 8% Blocking railway lines 5% 8% 23% 55% 8% Occupation of buildings or 4% 9% 24% 55% 8% enterprises Blocking airports 4% 7% 22% 58% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 12 Assessment of Ukrainian Authorities’ Performance Who bears primary responsibility for today’s situation in Ukraine? The President of Ukraine 39% The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine 22% The Parliament of Ukraine 14% Ukrainian oligarchs 9% The Russian Federation 4% The people of Ukraine 2% The West 1% The local authorities of Ukraine 1% Other 1% Difficult to answer 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 14 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer April 2017 1% 16% 33% 43% 6% September 2016 3% 17% 30% 44% 7% June 2016 3% 16% 36% 37% 9% February 2016 2% 15% 32% 43% 8% November 2015 3% 22% 28% 42% 6% September 2015 4% 20% 29% 40% 6% July 2015 3% 21% 34% 33% 8% September 2014 15% 40% 22% 13% 10% April 2014 11% 36% 19% 24% 11% March 2014 9% 33% 20% 27% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 15 Do you approve or disapprove of the activities of the Cabinet of Ministers under the leadership of Volodymyr Hroisman? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer April 2017 1% 14% 30% 49% 6% September 2016 1% 12% 28% 51% 8% June 2016 1% 19% 30% 29% 21% February 2016 1% 6% 25% 64% 4% November 2015 1% 11% 25% 57% 5% September 2015 2% 11% 29% 54% 5% July 2015 1% 10% 32% 52% 6% September 2014 13% 35% 27% 15% 10% April 2014 16% 36% 16% 24% 8% March 2014 12% 34% 17% 27% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% * Volodymyr Hroisman was appointed Prime Minister of Ukraine in April 2016.
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