Health in Scotland 2007
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health in Scotland 2007 Annual Report of the Chief Medical Officer contents Foreword 1 Chapter 1 Coronary heart disease and stroke: Reducing amenable mortality 2 Chapter 2 Cancer: Reducing amenable mortality 14 Chapter 3 Liver disease: Reducing amenable mortality 22 Chapter 4 Risk factors and their impact on disease in Scotland 28 References 34 Acknowledgements 36 © Crown copyright 2008 ISBN: 978-0-7559-5839-9 The Scottish Government St Andrew’s House Edinburgh EH1 3DG Produced for the Scottish Government by RR Donnelley B57023 11/08 This document is available in alternative formats on request Published by the Scottish Government, November, 2008 Further copies are available from Blackwell’s Bookshop 53 South Bridge Edinburgh EH1 1YS 100% of this document is printed on recycled paper and is 100% recyclable Foreword foreword Last year, my annual report our poor health is inevitable and we emphasised the importance of the early should not accept it as so. years of life in building a solid foundation for good mental and The final chapter suggests “5 habits physical health in adulthood. Since that for health”. By adopting these habits report was published, many tragedies we can add significantly to the number have been reported in the media in of years we live and improve the which babies and young children have quality of those years. been abused, injured and killed. At the same time, evidence has continued to The most worrying trend reported is accumulate that children born into and the significant increase in mortality raised in chaotic circumstances are associated with consumption of more likely to be unemployed, have alcohol. Scotland must change its criminal records, abuse alcohol and attitudes to this drug. The evidence drugs and, in their turn, be violent to that mortality from alcoholic liver their own children. The need to create a disease can fall rapidly when a society more nurturing and supportive reduces consumption is strong. environment for our children remains, France achieved enormous in my view, the most pressing public improvements very quickly. We must health issue in our society. do the same. In some parts of Scotland premature death from This years report looks at how we can alcoholic liver disease is now higher reduce the scourge of early death in than that from heart attacks and we Scottish adults. The big killers are, of must act quickly to improve matters. course, heart disease, stroke, cancer and alcoholic liver disease. The report The damage done to the length and details the trends in incidence and quality of life in Scotland by the major mortality from these diseases. It killers has, as already pointed out, contains some good news and reports many of its origins in childhood. We some worrying trends. The key need to confine our efforts to support message is that, in many respects, parents and children. We must, in Scotland’s health is changing for the addition, help people at greatest risk better and, by working together, of ill health make the choices that will citizens of Scotland can accelerate the improve their mental and physical rate of improvement. Nothing about wellbeing. 1 1 Coronary heart disease and stroke: Reducing amenable mortality Chapter 1: Coronary heart disease and stroke: Reducing amenable mortality Introduction and 2003 to a fall of 0.5% between The fall in mortality from stroke has 2003 and 2006. There was also a been more consistent. Mortality from Over the past 10 years Scotland has small increase in mortality rates in stroke in the under 75s has fallen seen a steady fall in the mortality young men between 2005 and 2006. substantially from 37 deaths per rates of the cardiovascular diseases Recent evidence suggests that the 100,000 in 1995 to 20 deaths per (CVD) of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk of developing heart disease is 100,000 in 2006 (Figure 2). If this trend and stroke. Figure 1 shows the increasing in younger men between continues, the 2010 target of a 50% progress made between 1995 and the ages of 35 and 55. This adverse reduction in mortality in this age group 2006 towards the 2010 target of a trend reflects what is happening in should be met. However, the 60% reduction in CHD deaths in those other parts of the world, including continuing increase in the proportion aged less than 75. England, Wales and the USA. It is of older people in the Scottish Although Scotland remains on course probable that unfavourable trends in population will mean the number of to meet this target, it is a matter of cardiovascular risk factors such as people of all ages in Scotland suffering concern that the rate of decline in CHD obesity and associated diabetes are a stroke will continue to increase mortality for men and women aged now beginning to impact on CHD unless the incidence of stroke in the 35-54 years shows recent significant mortality. This highlights a pressing over 75s is reduced. levelling off. Specifically, the average need to tackle the challenge of annual percentage fall in the rate in increasing obesity in the Scottish men changed from 6% between 1986 population. Figure 1: Mortality rates in Scotland from 1995 to 2006 for coronary heart disease for ages under 75 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 e per 100,000 Population 40 Rat 20 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Males (MEASR) Both Sexes (BEASR) Females trend to target (FTREND) Females (FEASR) Males trend to target (MTREND) Both Sexes trend to target (BTREND) Source: GRO(S) 3 Health in Scotland 2007 Figure 2: Mortality rates in Scotland from 1995 to 2006 for stroke for ages under 75 60 50 40 30 20 e per 100,000 Population 10 Rat 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Males (MEASR) Both Sexes (BEASR) Females trend to target (FTREND) Females (FEASR) Males trend to target (MTREND) Both Sexes trend to target (BTREND) Source: GRO(S) Behind these population trends there future adult disease, and to support Impact of Health is also a worrying gap in cardiovascular individual behaviours that promote Improvement Measures health between the more affluent and good physical and mental health and The Scottish Government is funding the more deprived people of Scotland. wellbeing. The report of the £56 million to support implementation See Figures 3 and 4. Ministerial Task Force on Health of the recently published policy Inequalities Equally Well2 published Healthy Eating, Active Living: An What more could be done to in June 2008 demonstrates the Action Plan to Improve Diet, Increase accelerate the current overall decline Scottish Government’s commitment Activity and Tackle Obesity3. It is also in CVD mortality and narrow the gap to tackling health inequalities. building on Scotland’s historic 2005 which persists between mortality rates Current health improvement policies legislation banning smoking in in rich and poor communities? aim to change the average behaviour enclosed public places and in May of the Scottish population by 2008 published a smoking prevention The recent Better Health, Better Care focussing on reducing poverty, Action Plan Scotland’s Future is Smoke action plan1 emphasises the crucial encouraging healthy lifestyles, Free. This has radical new proposals need to reduce the significant including taking more exercise and such as substantially reducing the widening health inequalities in eating more fruit and vegetables availability, affordability and Scotland. Current differences in life while reducing intake of salt, attractiveness of cigarettes to young expectancy and health in Scotland, saturated fats and alcohol. people and further reduce the number with people in the most affluent areas Increasingly health improvement of people exposed to tobacco smoke. of the country living several years policies are also targeting those Improving the pattern in the longer than those in the most deprived populations that are at greatest risk population of blood pressure, blood areas need to be tackled. The Scottish of future ill health and often least fats, diet, smoking and physical Government is working to break the able to access health improvement activity by even a small proportion will link between early life adversity and support. have a big impact on the numbers in the overall population having heart attacks and strokes. Table 1 illustrates the potential reduction in incidence of major cardiovascular events in the 10 years following treatment of middle aged men who are identified as high risk. 4 Chapter 1: Coronary heart disease and stroke: Reducing amenable mortality Figure 3: Coronary heart disease standardised mortality ratios by SIMD deprivation decile, 2002-2006 250 200 lity Ratio rta 150 100 Standardised Mo 50 0 1 2345678910 SIMD Deprivation Decile All Ages Ages under 65 Ages 65 and over Source: ISD Scotland; GRO(S) Figure 4: Cerebrovascular disease standardised mortality ratios, by SIMD deprivation decile, 2002-2006 200 180 160 140 lity Ratio 120 rta 100 80 60 Standardised Mo 40 20 0 12345678910 SIMD Deprivation Decile All Ages Ages under 65 Ages 65 and over Source: ISD Scotland; GRO(S) 5 Health in Scotland 2007 Table 1: Potential reduction in incidence of major cardiovascular events in subsequent 10 years by treatment of middle-aged men identified as at high risk Basis of high risk Treatment Reduction in individual relative risk High cholesterol Statin 30% High blood pressure BP lowering drug 22% High cholesterol Combined treatment 68% High blood pressure Combined treatment 68% Reduction in population incidence by treating those at greatest risk Top 10% Top 20% Top 30% High cholesterol Statin 6% 9% 12% High blood pressure BP lowering drug 6% 8% 10% High cholesterol Combined treatment 13% 21% 28% High blood pressure Combined treatment 18% 25% 31% (Combined treatment: Statin, BP lowering drug and aspirin) Based on Table 18.8: Stroke: practical management.