RIPON NOVEMBER, 1970 VOl. VI No. 11 ONE DOLLAR • The Raging Political Battles • The Apathetic Voter • The Stakes for Nixon in '72 A Special Pre-Election Report SUMMARY OF CONTENTS THE RIPON SOCIETY, INC. ~I~ o~:~:r!~:n :.-~ ~ bers are young business, acadamlc and professIonal men and wonnm. It has national headquarters in CambrIdge, Massachusatta, chapters In elmm EDITORIAL 3 cities, National AssocIate members throughout the fIfty states, and several affiliated groups of subchapter status. The SocIety is supported iIy cbspler dues, individual contributions and revenues from Its pUblications and con· tract work. The SocIety offers the followIng options for annual amtrIbu· RIPON: 'ENDORSEMENTS 5 tion: Contributor $25 or more: Sustalner $100 or more: Founder $1000 or more. Inquiries about membershIp and chapter organization abaIIId be addressad to the National Executlva Dlrectar. POLITICAL NOTES 6 NATIONAl GOVERNING BOARD OffIcers PRE-ELECTION REPORTS • Josiah Lea Auspitz, PresIdent 'Howard F. Gillett., Jr., Chairman of the Board 'Bruce K. Chapman, ChaIrman of the £Ie:utln CommIttee New York -10 'Mlchaei F. Brewer, VIca·Presldent • Robert L. Beal, Treasurer Pennsylvania -15 'Richard E. Beaman, Secretal1 Sastan Phlladalpbla "Robert Gulick 'Richard R. Block Martin A. Linsky Charles Day Ohio -18 Michael W. Christian Roger Whittlesey Combrldge Seattle 'Robert Davidson 'Thomas A. Alberg Texas -20 David A. Reil Camden Hail Rhea Kemble Wi lIIam Rodgers ChIcago WashIngton Massachusetts -23 ·R. Quincy White, Jr. 'Patricia A. Goldman 'Haroid S. Russell Stepben Herbits George H. Walker III Linda K. Lee Michigan -25 Dalles 'Neil D. Anderson At Large Howard L. Abramson "Chrlstopher T. Bayley Robert A. Wilson Thomas A. Brown Connecticut -28 Richard M. ConIay Hartford Chrlstapher DeMuth 'Nichoias Norton Bruce D. Fraser Robert G. Smith Emil H. Frankel Minnesota -30 William J. McKinney, Jr. Ralph J. Heikkinen Los Angeles Paul Leech "Lee W. Huebner Tennessee -33 New Haven Philip C. Johnston • Hayward L. Draper William J. Kilberg Deke Karzon ••J. Eugene Marans California Paul C. Capra Thomas E. Petri -36 NIM York ··John R. Price, Jr. "Richard Zimmer Ciair W. kodgers, Jr. Werner Kuhn •• John S. Saloma III WASHINGTON -VIEWPOINT -40 Marianne Magocsl Frank E. Samuel, Jr. £I·OffIcio At Large "Robert D. Behn, National EJecutin Director Howard L .Relter, Editor of the RIpon FORUM William G. Rogers, Research Director Teny A. Barnett, Political DIrector Christopher W. Baai, Policy ChaIrman "Peter J. Wallison, FInance Chairman • NatIonal Executive CommIttee Mamber ··Pas! PresIdent, ChaIrman of the Soard, or ChaIrmen of the EucatIR CONTRIBUTORS Committee The editor would like to express her most THE RIPON FORUM is published monthly bY the RIpon So· ciety, Inc., 148 Eliot Street, Cambridge, sincere thanks to all who wrote reports for this Massachusetts 02138. Second class postage rates paid at Boston Maaaa· chusetts. Contents are copyrighted © 1970 by the Ripon Society, Inc. special issue. Among the contributors were: Steve Correspondence addressed to the Editor Is welcomed. In publishing this magazine the Ripon Society seeks to provide a Crosby, Bill Gibbons, Charles Ingraham, John Karr, forum for fresh Idaas, well-researched proposals and for a spirIt of crltlclam, innovation, and Indepandent thinking within the Republlcsn PartY. ArtIcles Dean Lapham, Norman Larson, Clara Link, Michael do not necessarily represent the opinion of the National Ganrnlng Board or the Editorial Board of the Ripon Society, unless they are expllcltlJ 80 Merz, Barbara Mooney, Jim Seif, H. George Taylor, labelled. William K. Woods and Rkhard Zimmer. SUBSCRIPTION RATES are $10 a yaar, $5 for students, samcamen, and for Peace Corps, Vista and ather voluntaers. Onrseas air mail, $10 extra. Advertising rates on request. EdItor: Evelyn F. Ellis Contributing Editor: Howard L. Reiter Consulting EdItor: Michael S. Lottman Tecbnlcal EdItor: John Woodman ContrIbutors: Christopher W. Beel, Duncan K. Foley, Philip C. Johnson, EDITOR Douglas Matthews, William D. Phelan, Jr., David Omar WhIte. Evelyn F. Ellis accedes to the editorship of CIrculation Dept.: Hopa Fellows the FORUM beginning with this issue. Howard L. Correspondenta Arthur F. McClure, II, Mbsourl Mrs. Barbara Mooney, Conn. WllIIam HardIng, Nabraalla Reiter has returned to Harvard University to com­ Maggie Nichols, CalifornIa Charles O. Ingraham, Na York Alex M. Hehmeyar, No. CoIK. Deryl Howard, North Carolina plete his Ph.D. thesis and teach a course at the James F. McCollum, Jr., Rorlda Henri Pell Junod, Oblo Cullen Hammond, Georgia WilIIam K. Woods, Oblo Kennedy Institute. He will continue to serve as Michael McCrery, Idaho Stephen Jones, Oklahoma Ben Violette, illinoIs ErIc R. Blackledge, Oregon the FORUM's contributing editor. Miss Ellis, 25, J. Kenneth Oaks, IndIana Richard Ohar, Jr., PlllUlSJlnnIa Terrence Dwyer, Iowa Donato Andre D'Andrea, R. I. a graduate of Radcliffe College, has worked on the Eric Kames, Kentucky Bruce M. Selya, Rboda Island Henry Bernstein, louIsiana Harris Beach, Jr., So. Carolina ·staff of the FORUM since leaving Yale graduate William A. Merrill, Mass. Stanford M. Adelstein, S. D. Don Fowler, MaIne Robert R. Murdacb, VIrgInIa .. school in 1968. Terrence Dwyer, MIchIgan W. Stuart Parsons, WI-.sIn EDITORIAL AGNEW EQUALS NIXON frontlash voters (suburbanites, aged 30-49, making We shall not try to predict here the results of more than $10,000 a year). Among all voters Mus­ the 1970 election. Ripon did that in a series of kie trailed Nixon, but led him in every region but articles in the spring, and the major factors have the South. There has been a similar matchup since, not changed. For House races, we saw the principal which gives a clear sign that Mr. Nixon has not determinant as the economy, with the unemploy­ recovered his frontlash support. A September Har­ ment rate the best indicator of Republican losses ris poll now shows Nixon and Muskie tied overall and foreign policy, inflation and other issues capable in nationwide support. In September Mr. Nixon's of reducing but not erasing these losses. In the favorability rating - without any Democrat match­ Senate, on the other hand, we saw some Republican ed against him - fell below 50 percent for the gains as a result of the large number of vulnerable first time. Only 35 percent of the electorate said Democratic seats whose incumbents were not really that the President's conduct in office inspired them tested in the unusually bad Republican years of with confidence in the White House. 1964 and 1968. This does suggest one major revision to be We saw Vice President Agnew as locked into made in our earlier analysis: we must now drop the a national strategy aimed at playing on anxieties wishful hypothesis that Mr. Agnew can be or should about blacks and students to win to the GOP two be dissociated from the President. It was our earlier pillars of the New Deal coalition - small-town hope that whereas Mr. Agnew was locked into a white Southerners, mostly Baptists, and working polarizing strategy the President might embark on class· white Northerners, mostly Catholics. We saw a different course. We suggested that Mr. Nixon this as a "revolving door strategy," which anticipat­ replace Mr. Agnew in the public mind as the sym­ ed and even encouraged the permanent defection bol of the Republican Party and that he give other to the Democrats of "liberal" Republicans and in­ members of his Cabinet public prominence equal dependents, mostly Jews, Negroes, New England with that of the Vice President. It is now clear that Yankees and their descendants, Scandinavians and not only is the President closely associated in the those in knowledge-based industries, regardless of public mind with the Vice President, but that this ethnic origin. We warned that if the economy were association is justified. Mr. Agnew is now staffed bad the number of lower-middle-class blacklash by the President's own most trusted aides and his voters coming in the revolving door would not itinerary is scheduled from the White House. Mr. equal the number of more affluent frontlash voters Agnew himself has made it clear to reporters in going out, since unemployment would activate the Memphis that he disclaims final responsibility for New Deal anxieties of lower income whites. Agnew his campaign activities - that he is but an instru­ might thus be an asset in some states, where the ment of Mr. Nixon's own plans for reelection; or revolving door could work to the advantage of Re­ as James Reston reported after meeting with the publicans, but he would be a decided liability in Vice President, Agnew is on an "assignment" from others. the White House. To make sure he performs this assignment he has in his entourage three special There seems little need to revise these general assistants to the President (Safire, Buchanan and observations in the light of developments over the Anderson), one Cabinet-rank Counsellor (Harlow) last few months. Mixed Republican results - gains and a special elections task force. in the Senate, losses in the House - still seem like­ ly. And the revolving door strategy is already The President thus appears to be personally taking its toll. Mr. Agnew's ratings, like those of committed to the revolving door strategy as a viable Milton Bede two decades ago, have begun to turn political course. Of his principal aides specializing sour. A Harris poll in August showed that 47 per­ in politics, press and Congress - Chotiner, Dent, cent of the American people now have a negative Colson, Timmons, Klein, Costello and Harlow - view of him, while 45 percent are positive. Mr. there is not one who is not emotionally as well Nixon has had similar difficulties. After the Cam­ as intellectually committed to it, though at least bodi~n crisis, there was a switch of 29 full per­ two of these can claim a prior emotional commit­ centage points from Nixon to Muskie among young ment to Mr.