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Evaluation and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dongting Lake Basin Zhenghua Deng, Liqi Dai, Bing Deng and Xiaoyong Tian

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Evaluation and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dongting Lake Basin Zhenghua Deng, Liqi Dai, Bing Deng and Xiaoyong Tian 2125 © 2021 The Authors Journal of Water and Climate Change | 12.5 | 2021 Evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution of water resources carrying capacity in Dongting Lake Basin Zhenghua Deng, Liqi Dai, Bing Deng and Xiaoyong Tian ABSTRACT A three-dimensional rating index system for water resources system–water environment system– Zhenghua Deng (corresponding author) Liqi Dai socioeconomic system is constructed based on data from Hunan Dongting Lake Eco-environment Xiaoyong Tian Hunan Institute of Science and Technology, Monitoring Center, Hunan Provincial Water Resources Bulletin, and Hunan Statistical Yearbook. The Yueyang, water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) of Dongting Lake Basin from 2009 to 2018 is evaluated by the China E-mail: [email protected] TOPSIS model combined with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight, and then the Zhenghua Deng temporal evolution and spatial distribution characteristics of the WRCC of the Dongting Lake Basin are Bing Deng Key Laboratory of Dongting Lake Aquatic Eco- analyzed. The results show that: (1) The WRCC in the Dongting Lake Basin decreases from a good level to Environmental Control and Restoration of Hunan a reasonable level during the period. Among them, the WRCC of the Ouchi River, Hudu River, and Songzi Province, Changsha, River Basins decreases significantly. (2) There are obvious spatial differences in the WRCC of the China Dongting Lake Basin in 2018, the WRCC order is Lishui River, West Dongting Lake, Zijiang River, South Bing Deng Changsha University of Science & Technology, Dongting Lake, Yuanshui River, Xiangjiang River, East Dongting Lake, Songzi River, Hudu River, Ouchi Changsha, River, with scores of 0.586, 0.526, 0.472, 0.448, 0.416, 0.397, 0.393, 0.313, 0.306, and 0.304, respectively. China Finally, some policy recommendations for improving the WRCC of the Dongting Lake Basin are proposed. Key words | combination weight, Dongting Lake Basin, TOPSIS, water resources carrying capacity HIGHLIGHTS • According to the definition of water resources carrying capacity, its index evaluation system has been established. • The paper combines entropy method and TOPSIS method to comprehensively evaluate the change of water resources carrying capacity of Dongting Lake Basin during the last 10 years. • The countermeasures for coordinated development of water resources and society in the Dongting Lake Basin are proposed. INTRODUCTION Water is one of the important resources for the survival and important factors restricting the sustainable development development of human society. With the growth of popu- of society and the economy (Zuo & Zhang ). Water lation and development of the economy, water shortage resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is an important indi- and the deterioration of the water environment are becom- cator to characterize the state of regional water resources. ing increasingly serious and are gradually turning into Scientific measurement of regional WRCC is not only a necessary prerequisite for carrying out water resource regu- This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative lation, but also an important basis for sustainable economic Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits copying, adaptation and redistribution, provided the original work is properly cited and social development in the region (Song & Zhan ; (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Yang et al. , ). Comprehensive evaluation of regional doi: 10.2166/wcc.2021.210 Downloaded from http://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/12/5/2125/923265/jwc0122125.pdf by guest on 29 September 2021 2126 Z. Deng et al. | Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity Journal of Water and Climate Change | 12.5 | 2021 WRCC helps grasp the interactive relationship between factors affecting the resource carrying capacity through the water resources and economic development, and provides principal component score. Yuan et al. () applied the theoretical support and a realistic basis for coordinating improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evalu- economic, social, and environmental development ate the WRCC in Jiangyin City. He et al. () used the (Simanjuntak et al. ). TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation method to study and ana- Research on WRCC is relatively abundant, mainly focus- lyze the dynamic changes and spatial differences of the ing on the definition, the evaluation index system, and WRCC of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2007 to evaluation methods of WRCC. At present, there is still no 2016. Lin et al. () applied the TOPSIS model based on consensus on the definition of WRCC. Hui et al. () the entropy weight method, analysis, and evaluation of the believed that WRCC is the water system’s largest supporting WRCC in Kubuqi desert area from 2013 to 2018, and put capacity for socioeconomic development in the region forward suggestions for improvement. during certain development stages, and emphasize the sup- The above research shows that WRCC has gradually porting role of water resources for social and economic become a research hotspot in regional economics and econ- development. Xia () believed that WRCC is the ability omic geography. In general, existing studies have produced to support population size and sustainable socioeconomic good research on the evaluation of WRCC, which has cre- development, and reflects the mutual relationship between ated strong progress concerning WRCC. However, existing water resources and social economy, which is more scienti- studies still have the following limitations. First, most of fic and reasonable. As for the evaluation index system, a the research areas for WRCC are local areas, such as the three-dimensional evaluation index system is often con- western, central, and northeastern provinces, as well as structed based on water resources–social economy– specific urban groups like the Yangtze River Delta in ecological environment (Li et al. ). A five-dimensional China. There are few studies on the comprehensive evalu- rating index system about driving force–pressure–status– ation of WRCC based on river basins. Second, the index influence–response (DPSIR) is used to evaluate WRCC system needs to be further improved. Most existing (Chen et al. ; Zhu & Wang ; Li et al. ; Weng studies adopt socioeconomic and water resource indicators et al. ). An evaluation index system from the perspec- (Rijiberman & van de Venb ; Wu et al. ), and tives of quantity–quality–watershed-flow comprehensively there is no consideration of water environment indicators evaluated the WRCC of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area that affect WRCC. Third, most of the existing literature uses (Yu et al. ). In terms of quantitative research of subjective weighting such as the principal component analysis WRCC, the commonly used evaluation methods are method or objective weighting such as the entropy weighting mainly the conventional trend method, principal com- method, which may lead to insufficient accuracy of the evalu- ponent analysis method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation ation results of WRCC. method, and system dynamics method. Cui et al. () Based on the current research work, this paper takes the adopted set pair analysis and the improved entropy weight Dongting Lake Basin as the research area. Considering method to determine the objective weight of indicators, water environment indictors’ impact on WRCC, the paper making the evaluation results more real and accurate. Qu & applies the water environment monitoring data of each Fan () used the conventional trend method to study basin monitoring point of the Ecological Environment the WRCC of the Hei River Basin as well as analyzing the Monitoring Center of Dongting Lake, and selects indicators supplyanddemandrelationshipofwaterresourcesinthe from the three subsystems of water resources, water environ- basin under different schemes. Some authors used the ment, and social economy, and then constructs a system dynamics method to establish a comprehensive assess- comprehensive evaluation index system of the WRCC. ment model of water resources in Yiwu and Xi’an (Feng et al. Finally, the program takes the TOPSIS model combined ; Haddeland et al. ). Li et al. () used the principal with composite weighting based on the improved analytic component analysis method to comprehensively evaluate the hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy value method to deter- resource carrying capacity of Zhengzhou and found the main mine the comprehensive weight of each indicator, and the Downloaded from http://iwaponline.com/jwcc/article-pdf/12/5/2125/923265/jwc0122125.pdf by guest on 29 September 2021 2127 Z. Deng et al. | Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity Journal of Water and Climate Change | 12.5 | 2021 temporal and spatial dynamic changes of WRCC in the and Hunan Dongting Lake Ecological Environment Dongting Lake Basin from 2009 to 2018 are evaluated. Monitoring Center obtained water resources data and socio- The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. The economic data. Ten representative Dongting Lake Basin next section introduces the study area and data source, fol- monitoring stations (Figure 1) were screened to obtain the lowed by a section describing the research methods. Then, water environment data, and included: S1 Songzi River’s a section presents the empirical research results and the Xinjiangkou; S2 Hudu River’s Mituo Temple; S3 Oujichi final section discusses the research findings and concludes River’s Butler Shop; S4 Xiangjiang’s Zhuting Town; S5 the study. Zijiang’s Pingkou; S6 Yuanshui’s Guanyin
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