Effects of Climate Change on Floods of Pakistan and Gap Analysis of Existing Policies with Vision 2025
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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOODS OF PAKISTAN AND GAP ANALYSIS OF EXISTING POLICIES WITH VISION 2025 By SAIMA AKBAR Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University, Islamabad 2015 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOODS OF PAKISTAN AND GAP ANALYSIS OF EXISTING POLICIES WITH VISION 2025 A thesis submitted to Bahria University, Islamabad in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of MS in Environmental Policy and Management SAIMA AKBAR Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University, Islamabad 2015 ABSTRACT A national vision is meant to provide clarity to our shared vision of the future. Vision 2025 is our shared destination to progress. Our ultimate aspiration is to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. This research was conducted to address the gaps in the environmental aspects of reducing the floods and effects of global warming in the policies. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy, National Disaster Management Authority, Federal Flood Commission and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. Following the stages of analysis conducted on the NCCP 2012, NDMA, FFC and Vision 2025 above the necessity of a well implemented policy is undeniable. Pakistan may have committed itself to reducing the effects of climate change and controlling the factors which are becoming the cause of flooding in Pakistan. Despite the fact that many areas have been covered, the policy measures given in some are mostly unclear and do not give a specific target of action. In this study Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats (SWOT) model was adopted to analyse the vision 2025 with policies from NDMA, FFC and NCCP. The areas are highlighted for each policy from different stakeholders that needs to be improved. It is the need to involve all the stakeholders while formulating any policy. The Climate Change policy is for Pakistan, a country with various political, economic and social issues. Therefore, environmental issues may not be given a high enough priority by all stakeholders. In order, to make the policies viable and objectives achievable, it has to be more realistic. Setting up great goals which are difficult to reach by a developing country is only going to insignificant the policy effect as application would become impossible. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would never have been able to finish my dissertation without the grace and help of Almighty Allah who give me strength and vision to complete this work. With the support of Almighty Allah, my dedicated supervisor, help from friends, and support from my family and husband and specially my kids, I am able to complete my work. First of all I am thankful to Admiral FiyazUrRehman (R), Ex Rector Bahria University Islamabad for his guidance, support and motivation to complete my research work. I would liketo express my deepest gratitude to my advisor, Mr Muhammad Khubaib Abuzar, Senior Assistant Professor, Earth and Environmental Sciences Department, Bahria University Islamabad, for his excellent guidance, caring, patience, and providing me with an excellent atmosphere for doing research. I would like to express my gratitude toAssociate Professor Dr.Muhammad Zafar, Head of Department Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria University, Islamabad. I would also like to thank Professor Dr.Tehseenullah Khan, for his encouragement and motivation to complete this work under his vast experience of research.My deepest gratitude to Dr. Said Akbar, Dr.Asma, and my other faculty members of Earth and Environmental Sciences Department, Bahria University Islamabad for guiding and helping me to develop my background. I am also thankful to all focal persons of relevant departments who guide me and provide data of my concern. I would like to thank my parents, my sisters and brothers always encouraging me with their best wishes. Special thanks to my kids especially my younger daughter and my son whom time was sacrificed during this study period. Finally, I would like to thank my husband, ShafqatUllah who is always there cheering me up and stood by me through the good times and bad. ii ABBREVIATIONS GHGs Greenhouse gases CFC Chlorofluorocarbons IPCC Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change USC Utility Stores Corporation FFC Federal Flood Commission NDMA National Disaster Management Authority PMD Pakistan Metrological Department UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WRM Water Resource Management NCCP National Climate Change Policy GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Floods CCP Climate Change Policy IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SWOT Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats IRS Indus Water System ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organizations GIS Global Information System HKH Hindu Kush, Karakorum, Himalayas PIDC Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation GWP Global Warming Potential MAF Million Acers Feet GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product iii CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii ABBREVIATIONS iii FIGURES vi TABLES vii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Climate change 2 1.1.1 Pakistan vulnerability to climate change threats 3 1.1.2 Types of floods in Pakistan 4 1.1.3 Latest floods in Pakistan 5 1.1.4 Industrial revolution in Pakistan 7 1.1.5 Glaciers 9 1.1.6 Desertification in Pakistan 11 1.1.7 Increasing population in Pakistan 12 1.1.8 Deforestation 13 1.1.9 Cloud burst 15 1.1.10 Other climatic factors 17 1.2 Water resources of Pakistan 20 1.2.1 Major flood events and historical flood peaks record in major rivers 22 1.2.2 Sedimentation and loss of reservoir capacity 23 1.2.3 Reservoirs sedimentation 24 1.3 Objectives of study 25 iv CHAPTER 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS 2.1 Data collection 26 2.1.1 Microsoft excel 26 2.1.2 Questionnaires 26 2.2 Analysis part 28 CHAPTER 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 3.1 Glacier melting evidences of last 25 years 34 3.2 Review of policies 43 3.2.1 Pakistan vision 2025 43 3.2.1.1 Climate change 44 3.2.1.2 Energy, water and food security 45 3.2.2 National Disaster Management Authority 46 3.2.3 Federal Flood Commission 48 3.2.4 National climate change policy as a step towards the 48 accomplishment of Vision 2014-2030 3.2.5 Framework for implementation of climate change policy 2014-2030 50 3.2.6 Flood control strategies taken by developed and neighbouring 51 Countries CONCLUSION 57 RECOMMENDATIONS 59 REFERENCES 60 v FIGURES Page Figure 1.1. Historical floods experienced in Pakistan. 6 Figure 1.2. Loss of storage capacity of three major reservoirs and total 24 loss. Figure 1.3. Storage loss of reservoirs. 25 Figure 3.2. Five years average rainfall pattern (1995-2000). 31 Figure 3.3. Five years average rainfall pattern (2006-2010). 31 Figure 3.4. Five years average rainfall pattern (2011-2015). 32 Figure 3.5. Ten years average rainfall pattern (1995-2005). 33 Figure 3.6. Ten years average rainfall pattern (2006-2015). 34 Figure 3.7. Temporal changes in Passu glacier (1990-2025). 36 Figure 3.8. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 36 and total area (km2). Figure 3.9. Change in Batura glacier from 1990 to 2015. 37 Figure 3.10. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 37 and total area (km2). Figure 3.11. Temporal changes in Baultar glacier (1990-2025). 38 Figure 3.12. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 38 and total area (km2). Figure 3.13. Temporal changes in Barpu glacier (1990-2025). 39 Figure 3.14. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 39 and total area (km2). Figure 3.15. Temporal changes inHisper glacier (1990-2025). 40 Figure 3.16. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 40 and total area (km2). Figure 3.17. Temporal changes in Virjerab glacier (1990-2025). 41 Figure 3.18. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 41 and total area (km2). Figure 3.19. Temporal changes in Biafo glacier (1990-2025). 42 Figure 3.20. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 42 and total area (km2). vi TABLES Page Table 1.1. Historical floodsexperienced in Pakistan. 6 Table 1.2. Based on 1961-2001 data for rivers flowing in Pakistan. 21 Table 1.3. Existing floods protection infrastructure. 22 Table 1.4. Peaks flood flow in Indus river. 22 Table 1.5. Peaks flood flow in Jhelum river. 22 Table 1.6. Peaks flood flow in Chenab river. 22 Table 1.7. Peaks flood flow in Ravi river. 23 Table 1.8. Peaks flood flow in Sutlej river. 23 Table 1.9. Reservoirs capacity status in 2025. 24 Table 2.1. Survey questionnaire. 27 Table 3.1. List of data collected from Meteorological stations. 30 Table 3.2. SWOT analysis of given policies. 53 Table 3.3. Summation of results. 55 Table 3.4. Gaps in all sectors. 55 vii CHAPTER1 INTRODUCTION The earth’s climate has been changing constantly over eras but the last two centuries have witnessed the development of the greenhouse problem, which threatens to change climate in an exceptional mode. Patterns of solar inconsistency, the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), changes in the atmosphere (as exposed by isotopic studies of ice cores), variability in the extent and volume of land and sea ice, and natural variability of the biosphere irradiate both the variety of internal and external sources of optional and the range of reactions caused by different earth system mechanisms.