Effects of Climate Change on Floods of Pakistan and Gap Analysis of Existing Policies with Vision 2025

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOODS OF PAKISTAN AND GAP ANALYSIS OF EXISTING POLICIES WITH VISION 2025

SAIMA AKBAR

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University, Islamabad 2015 EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOODS OF PAKISTAN AND GAP ANALYSIS OF EXISTING POLICIES WITH VISION 2025

A thesis submitted to Bahria University, Islamabad in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of MS in Environmental Policy and Management

SAIMA AKBAR

Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Bahria University, Islamabad 2015 ABSTRACT

A national vision is meant to provide clarity to our shared vision of the future. Vision 2025 is our shared destination to progress. Our ultimate aspiration is to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047– the centennial year of our independence. This research was conducted to address the gaps in the environmental aspects of reducing the floods and effects of global warming in the policies. The main objective of this research was to critically analyses the National Climate Change Policy, National Disaster Management Authority, Federal Flood Commission and Vision 2025, as an effective policy document which is not only hitting the target of a climate resilient Pakistan but provides room for efficient and flexible policy implementation. Following the stages of analysis conducted on the NCCP 2012, NDMA, FFC and Vision 2025 above the necessity of a well implemented policy is undeniable. Pakistan may have committed itself to reducing the effects of climate change and controlling the factors which are becoming the cause of flooding in Pakistan. Despite the fact that many areas have been covered, the policy measures given in some are mostly unclear and do not give a specific target of action. In this study Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats (SWOT) model was adopted to analyse the vision 2025 with policies from NDMA, FFC and NCCP. The areas are highlighted for each policy from different stakeholders that needs to be improved. It is the need to involve all the stakeholders while formulating any policy. The Climate Change policy is for Pakistan, a country with various political, economic and social issues. Therefore, environmental issues may not be given a high enough priority by all stakeholders. In order, to make the policies viable and objectives achievable, it has to be more realistic. Setting up great goals which are difficult to reach by a developing country is only going to insignificant the policy effect as application would become impossible.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I would never have been able to finish my dissertation without the grace and help of Almighty Allah who give me strength and vision to complete this work. With the support of Almighty Allah, my dedicated supervisor, help from friends, and support from my family and husband and specially my kids, I am able to complete my work.

First of all I am thankful to Admiral FiyazUrRehman (R), Ex Rector Bahria University Islamabad for his guidance, support and motivation to complete my research work. I would liketo express my deepest gratitude to my advisor, Mr Muhammad Khubaib Abuzar, Senior Assistant Professor, Earth and Environmental Sciences Department, Bahria University Islamabad, for his excellent guidance, caring, patience, and providing me with an excellent atmosphere for doing research. I would like to express my gratitude toAssociate Professor Dr.Muhammad Zafar, Head of Department Earth and Environmental Sciences, Bahria University, Islamabad. I would also like to thank Professor Dr.Tehseenullah Khan, for his encouragement and motivation to complete this work under his vast experience of research.My deepest gratitude to Dr. Said Akbar, Dr.Asma, and my other faculty members of Earth and Environmental Sciences Department, Bahria University Islamabad for guiding and helping me to develop my background. I am also thankful to all focal persons of relevant departments who guide me and provide data of my concern.

I would like to thank my parents, my sisters and brothers always encouraging me with their best wishes. Special thanks to my kids especially my younger daughter and my son whom time was sacrificed during this study period.

Finally, I would like to thank my husband, ShafqatUllah who is always there cheering me up and stood by me through the good times and bad.

ABBREVIATIONS

GHGs Greenhouse gases

CFC Chlorofluorocarbons

IPCC Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change

UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change

USC Utility Stores Corporation

FFC Federal Flood Commission

NDMA National Disaster Management Authority

PMD Pakistan Metrological Department

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

WRM Water Resource Management

NCCP National Climate Change Policy GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Floods CCP Climate Change Policy IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SWOT Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats IRS Indus Water System ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organizations GIS Global Information System HKH Hindu Kush, Karakorum, Himalayas PIDC Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation GWP Global Warming Potential MAF Million Acers Feet GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product

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CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii ABBREVIATIONS iii FIGURES vi TABLES vii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Climate change 2

1.1.1 Pakistan vulnerability to climate change threats 3

1.1.2 Types of floods in Pakistan 4

1.1.3 Latest floods in Pakistan 5

1.1.4 Industrial revolution in Pakistan 7

1.1.5 Glaciers 9

1.1.6 Desertification in Pakistan 11

1.1.7 Increasing population in Pakistan 12

1.1.8 Deforestation 13

1.1.9 Cloud burst 15

1.1.10 Other climatic factors 17

1.2 Water resources of Pakistan 20

1.2.1 Major flood events and historical flood peaks record in major rivers 22

1.2.2 Sedimentation and loss of reservoir capacity 23

1.2.3 Reservoirs sedimentation 24

1.3 Objectives of study 25

CHAPTER 2 MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1 Data collection 26

2.1.1 Microsoft excel 26

2.1.2 Questionnaires 26

2.2 Analysis part 28

CHAPTER 3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

3.1 Glacier melting evidences of last 25 years 34

3.2 Review of policies 43

3.2.1 Pakistan vision 2025 43 3.2.1.1 Climate change 44 3.2.1.2 Energy, water and food security 45 3.2.2 National Disaster Management Authority 46 3.2.3 Federal Flood Commission 48 3.2.4 National climate change policy as a step towards the 48 accomplishment of Vision 2014-2030 3.2.5 Framework for implementation of climate change policy 2014-2030 50

3.2.6 Flood control strategies taken by developed and neighbouring 51 Countries

CONCLUSION 57 RECOMMENDATIONS 59

REFERENCES 60

FIGURES Page Figure 1.1. Historical floods experienced in Pakistan. 6 Figure 1.2. Loss of storage capacity of three major reservoirs and total 24 loss. Figure 1.3. Storage loss of reservoirs. 25 Figure 3.2. Five years average rainfall pattern (1995-2000). 31 Figure 3.3. Five years average rainfall pattern (2006-2010). 31 Figure 3.4. Five years average rainfall pattern (2011-2015). 32 Figure 3.5. Ten years average rainfall pattern (1995-2005). 33 Figure 3.6. Ten years average rainfall pattern (2006-2015). 34 Figure 3.7. Temporal changes in Passu glacier (1990-2025). 36 Figure 3.8. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 36 and total area (km2). Figure 3.9. Change in Batura glacier from 1990 to 2015. 37 Figure 3.10. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 37 and total area (km2). Figure 3.11. Temporal changes in Baultar glacier (1990-2025). 38 Figure 3.12. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 38 and total area (km2). Figure 3.13. Temporal changes in Barpu glacier (1990-2025). 39 Figure 3.14. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 39 and total area (km2). Figure 3.15. Temporal changes inHisper glacier (1990-2025). 40 Figure 3.16. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 40 and total area (km2). Figure 3.17. Temporal changes in Virjerab glacier (1990-2025). 41 Figure 3.18. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 41 and total area (km2). Figure 3.19. Temporal changes in Biafo glacier (1990-2025). 42 Figure 3.20. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover 42 and total area (km2).

TABLES Page Table 1.1. Historical floodsexperienced in Pakistan. 6

Table 1.2. Based on 1961-2001 data for rivers flowing in Pakistan. 21

Table 1.3. Existing floods protection infrastructure. 22

Table 1.4. Peaks flood flow in Indus river. 22

Table 1.5. Peaks flood flow in Jhelum river. 22

Table 1.6. Peaks flood flow in Chenab river. 22

Table 1.7. Peaks flood flow in Ravi river. 23

Table 1.8. Peaks flood flow in Sutlej river. 23

Table 1.9. Reservoirs capacity status in 2025. 24

Table 2.1. Survey questionnaire. 27

Table 3.1. List of data collected from Meteorological stations. 30

Table 3.2. SWOT analysis of given policies. 53

Table 3.3. Summation of results. 55

Table 3.4. Gaps in all sectors. 55

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CHAPTER1

INTRODUCTION

The earth’s climate has been changing constantly over eras but the last two centuries have witnessed the development of the greenhouse problem, which threatens to change climate in an exceptional mode. Patterns of solar inconsistency, the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), changes in the atmosphere (as exposed by isotopic studies of ice cores), variability in the extent and volume of land and sea ice, and natural variability of the biosphere irradiate both the variety of internal and external sources of optional and the range of reactions caused by different earth system mechanisms. Over the last era, an average annual increase in surface air temperature of about 2.9°C has been observed in boreal Asia. Nations in Asiatic region are especially concerned about the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere because of the potential effect on the region from climate change related shifts in patterns of storms, floods and droughts as well as a rise in sea level. Asiatic region has been historically vulnerable to fluctuations in the monsoons, the El Nino Southern Oscillations and tropical cyclones.(Farooqi et. al. 2005). The country has a long latitudinal extent stretching from the Arabian Sea in the south to the Himalayan Mountains in north. It is located in sub-tropics and partially in temperate region. These are the home of about 180 Million people and probably a larger portion of those is most vulnerable to climate change. Large numbers of residents live in low coastal areas or river deltas where sea level rise and flooding are the likeliest devastating significances of rise in global temperatures as the climate shifts. Climatologically, most parts of Pakistan are arid to semi-arid with significant spatial and temporal variability in climatic parameters. 59% of the annual rainfall is due to monsoon rains, a governing hydro-meteorological re-source for Pakistan. Greater Himalayan region above 35°N receives winter precipitation mostly in the form of snow and ice. The snow melt influence keeps the rivers determined throughout the year. The coastal climate is confined to a narrow strip along the coast in the south and southeast, the north is dominated by the mountain climate ranging from humid to arid. In between, the climate is broadly of tropical continental nature (Farooqi et. al., 2005).

1.1.Climate change

Climate is the average weather conditions at a particular place over a period of 11 to 40 years generally. It refers to a number of factors i.e. temperature, behavior of winds and air pressure. A change of climate is directly or indirectly related to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability over comparable time periods. The growing rate of industrialization, the burning of greater quantities of fossil fuels (e.g. coal, gas and oil) and the unchecked destruction of forest cover has resulted in increased levels of Carbon-dioxide (CO2) being emitted into the atmosphere. This carbon covers the earth, trapping its heat, causing global warming, which in turn leads to climate change. The Earth is equipped with a natural system keeping the average temperature of the atmosphere at levels encouraging to sustaining life. This process is known as ‘The Greenhouse Effect’. Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), which includes carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), and water vapors are released into the atmosphere from natural and anthropogenic sources. They absorb the reflected thermal radiation from the terrestrial surface and trap waste radiations which in return warm the atmosphere maintaining the average temperature within the stratosphere. During and after 17th century industrial revolution, the natural balance of greenhouse effect has been enhanced to damaging levels due to an increased concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere due to excessive anthropogenic activities.Climate change is defined as the statistical change in the average temperature of the earth over decades or longer (World Metrological Organization). The definition provided by UNFCCC, defines climate change as

A change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time (UNFCC 2013).

“Climate change is a serious threat to development everywhere” (IPCC).

From 1900 to 2005, precipitation increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia but declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia (IPCC). Global Climate Change brings with it changes in the natural dynamics of the

atmospheric combinations and ecosystems leading to a rise in sea levels, glacial retreat, extreme weather patterns, loss of biodiversity, desertification and deforestation. Asia is most likely to be impacted by a decrease in fresh water availability and increase in diseases due to frequent floods and droughts by 2050 (NASA 2013). The damages have started becoming more apparent over the last decades, with rising temperature in regions and decreased precipitation.

“It is projected that climate change will increase the variability of the monsoon rains and enhance the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts” (PTFCC2016).

Although there are both natural and anthropogenic reasons of climate change but latter is the most dominant with an ever increasing trend since the industrial revolution of 1940s. Population growth in developing countries, which makes about 70% of the comity of nations, has been too high putting an increased pressure on fixed natural resources and the compensation of increased demand for food and shelter through better socio-economic conditions. Increasing population and changing life style under economic transformation raised the level of anthropogenic contribution to climate change many folds as compared to always existing natural ones. Economic development at the cost of environmental degradation played very important role in producing drastic rise in global warming and hence changing the climate over the global and regional scales.According to the World Bank, Climate Change is going to hit the developing countries the most, aggravating the current issues of poverty, hunger and disease due to increase in frequency of natural disasters such as floods and droughts and lack of preparedness for these alarming situations (Bank 2013). Following are some factors which are affecting the climate of Pakistan.

1.1.1 Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change threats

The important climate change threats to Pakistan are:

1. Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense floods and droughts.

2. Projected decline of the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers due to global warming and carbon smoke deposits from trans-boundary pollution bases, threatening water influxes into the Indus River System. 3. Increased siltation of major dams caused by more numerous and concentrated floods. 4. Increasing temperatures resulting in greater heat and water-stressed circumstances, mostly in arid and semi-arid areas, leading to reduced agricultural efficiency. 5. Promote decrease in the already revealing forest shelter, from too rapid change in climatic conditions to allow natural relocation of badly affected plant species. 6. Increased interference of salty water in the Indus delta, poorly affecting coastal farming, mangroves and the breeding surroundings of fish. 7. Risk to coastal areas due to predictable sea level rise and augmented cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures.

8. Increased pressure between upper riparian and lower riparian districts in relation to sharing of water properties.

9. Increased health risks and climate change encouraged relocation.

The above threats lead to major existence concerns for Pakistan, mostly in relation to the country’s water security, food security and energy security (NCCPP 2012).

1.1.2 Types of floods in Pakistan

The word ‘flood’ came from old English flod, float; also compare with Latin fluctus, flumen. Deluge myths are mythical stories of a great load sent by a deity or deities to destroy civilization as an act of divine retribution, and are featured in the mythology of many cultures.

There are many types of flood that occur in the country almost every year.

Monsoon floods, monsoon rain can fill river basins with much water coupled with melting snows. Torrential rains from decaying monsoon low pressure area also produce river flooding.

Flash floods, are common in the northern areas of the country and cause great loss of life.

Floods due to the breaches of river embankments and canal breeches are a frequent occurrence in all the districts of Pakistan.

Urban floods occur in the major cities of Pakistan; and also common in the monsoon season.

Coastal floods occur when a tropical storm makes landfall in the coastal areas of the country. The south-eastern Sindh and the Makran coast bear the brunt of such floods.

1.1.3 Latest floods in Pakistan

In 2003, Sindh province was badly affected when above normal monsoon rainfall caused flooding in the province; urban flooding also hit Karachi where two days of rainfall of 284.5 millimetres (11.20 in) created havoc in the city, while Thatta district was the worst hit where 404 millimetres (15.9 in) rainfall caused flash floods in the district. At least 484 people died and some 4,476 villages in the province were affected.

In 2007, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and coastal Baluchistan were badly affected due to monsoon rainfall. Sindh and coastal Baluchistan were affected by Cyclone Yemyin in June and then torrential rains in July and August, while Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa was affected by melting glaciers and heavy rainfall in July and August. At least 130 people died and 2,000 were displaced in Khyber-Pakhtunkwain in July and 22 people died in August, while 815 people died in Baluchistan and Sindh due to flash floods.

Figure 1.1. Historical floods experienced in Pakistan (Source FFC).

Table 1.1. Historical floods experienced in Pakistan. Direct losses Affected Floodedarea Sr. no Years (US$ million) villages (sq. km) 1 1950 488 10,000 17,920 2 1955 378 6,945 20,480 3 1956 318 11,609 74,406 4 1957 301 4,498 16,003 5 1959 234 3,902 10,424 6 1973 5134 9,719 41,472 7 1975 684 8,628 34,931 8 1976 3485 18,390 81,920 9 1977 338 2185 4,657 10 1978 2227 9199 30,597 11 1981 299 2071 4,191 12 1983 135 643 1,882 13 1984 75 251 1,093 14 1988 858 100 6,144 15 1992 3010 13,208 38,758 16 1994 843 1822 5,568 17 1995 376 6852 16,686 18 2010 10,000 17553 160,000 19 2011 3730 38700 27,581 20 2012 2640 14159 4,746 21 2013 2000 8297 4,483 22 2014 440 4065 9,779 23 2015 170 4634 2,877 Total 38165 197,230 616,598 (Source: Federal Flood Commission Pakistan)

In 2010, almost all of Pakistan was affected when massive flooding caused by record-breaking rains hit Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. The number of individuals affected by the flooding exceeds the combined total of individuals affected by the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and the 2010 Haiti earthquake. At least 2,000 people died in this flood and almost 20 million people were affected by it.

In 2011, there is a lot talk whether floods will occur in Pakistan this year or not. But it is worth mentioning that some isolated floods have been reported in different parts of the country. The latest was Dera Ghazi Khan where floods on June 12 started through Koh-e-Suleman and then entered DG Khan and in the end entered River Indus. People who migrated following flood threat, have started to come back home.

In September 2012, more than 100 people died, and thousands of homes destroyed, with thousands of acres of arable land affected when intense rainfall battered Khyber Pukhtunkhwa, Southern Punjab and Upper Sindh. Because of monsoon rains.

In August 2013, more than 80 people died.

In September 2014, Due to massive rain in Jammu and Kashmir as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir and in Punjab Constituted flood situation in River Chenab and River Jhelum.

It must be noted that floods do not occur in this month because the monsoon has not started yet. Only western disturbance passes through Pakistan that cause some rainfall with winds. The DG Khan floods were also due to a western disturbance.

1.1.4 Industrial revolution in Pakistan Pakistan ranks forty-first in the world in factory output. Pakistan's industrial sector accounts for about 25% of GDP. Textile, sports, sugar, cement and fertilizer industry are the main industries of our country. Other major industries include automobile, leather products, paper & board, pharmaceuticals, chemical, engineering items, electronic, non-metallic minerals, petroleum products, food, beverages & tobacco, mining, agriculture, livestock, steel, electricity and gas industry.Pakistan at the time of partition in 1947 had a negligible industrial base. It got only 34 industries out of total 955, while remaining were held by India. Such a small number of 7

industries were not enough for a newly born country to face the industrialized world. With the passage of time Pakistan utilized it’s all available resources domestic as well as external for rapid development of manufacturing sector.Out of 955 industrial units operating in the British India, Pakistan got only 34 industries i.e. 4% of the total industries established in the Subcontinent. The rest were located in India. The industries which came to the share of Pakistan were of a comparatively small size and were based on raw material. These industries included small sugar mills, cotton ginning factories, flour mills, rice husking mills and canning factories etc. In 1947 it was suggested in the Industrial conference of Pakistan to establish industries, which use locally produced raw material like jute, cotton, hide and skins. The Government also set up an Industrial Finance Corporation and an Industrial Investment and Credit Corporation in 1948. In the period from 1947 to 1950, the private entrepreneurs invested in those industries which showed the highest profit. The contribution of industrial sector was 6.9% to GDP in 1950.The industrial performance in terms of growth/productivity is examined in the following periods of time:

In 1952 the Government took the initiative and established Pakistan Industrial Development Corporation (PIDC) to invest in those industries which require heavy initial investment. PIDC major investment was in paper and paper board, cement, fertilizer, jute mills and the Sui Karachi gas pipeline. PIDC by June, 1971 had completed 59 industrial units and created a base for self-sustained growth in the industrial sector.

A large number of new industries were established. The production capacity of the already existing units like fertilizers, jute and paper was considerably expanded. The reduction of export duties and the introduction of Export Bonus Scheme in 1958 increased export of the manufactured goods. There was all round development of industries particularly in agricultural processing food products and textiles. The share of industrial sector to GDP rose from 9.7% in 1954-55 to 11.9% in 1959-60.

In 1960’s there was a shift in the establishment of consumer goods industries to heavy industries such as machine tools, petro-chemical, electrical complex and iron and steel. The industrial performance in terms of growth, export and productivity increased during the Second Five Year Plan period. The share of industrial sector to

GNP went up to 11.8% from 1960 to 1965. The manufacturing sector could achieve a growth rate of 7.8% against the Plan target of 10%.

The industrial performance in terms of growth, exports and production was disappointing from 1971 to 1977. There were various reasons for the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. One wing of the country (East Pakistan) was forcibly separated. The Country had to fight a war with India in 1970. The suspension of foreign aid, loss of indigenous market (East Pakistan), fall in exports, devaluation to the extent of 131% nationalization of industries labor unrest, unfavorable investment climate, floods, recession in world trade and reduction in investment incentives caused a fall in the output of large scale industries. The annual growth rate fell to 2.8% in the industrial sector in this period.

From July, 1977 to 1980, the Government initiated a large number of measures to revise the economy. Cotton ginning rice husking and flour milling were de-nationalized. The private sector was encouraged to invest in large scale industries. The annual growth rate in manufacturing sector was 8.2% in the 1989's. The growth of large scale manufacturing slowed down to an average of 4.7% in the first half and further to 2.5% in the 2nd half of the 1990's.

1.1.5 Glaciers

Pakistan is located in South Asia between 24°-37°N latitude and 66°-77°E. It hosts the three-way point of three world famous mountain ranges Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush in its north. There are more than 5000 glaciers serving the Indus from 10 sub-basins through different branches ranging from few tens of meters to more than 70 km long. According to glacier inventory developed by ICIMOD in 2005 with the help of GIS techniques, over this glaciated area, there are about 2500 glacial lakes formed due to glacier melt waters and 52 of them were declared potentially dangerous for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). The GLOF events are disastrous as massive loads of debris and mud flows downstream extensive the infrastructure, houses and crop-lands resulting in slashes of life victims if it happens without any attentive signal. For mountain residents, GLOF is the greatest hazard which is being secure by climate change in terms of incidence and exposure.In Hindu Kushmountain range, BooniGole Glacier generated outburst flood in July 2010

generated by monsoon rainstorm and produced huge erosive damage to agricultural land and population along the flow channel. It used to store water under the boundary of the glacier and produce flood either by augmented melting of snow or by intense rainfall.

Due to sharp slope downstream, the carried loads of mud, debris including heavy boulders gain thrust and cause heavy losses to infrastructure and land.The scene ofPassu lake outburst damages is quite visible from Karakoram Highway becausePassu village is located beside that highway. An aggregated tendency of development of new lakes and growth of remaining ones near the glaciers of the Himalayas and Hindu Kush are confirmed by the temporal evaluation of satellite imageries (PMD).Most of the world glaciers are subjected to depletion with a few exceptions (IPCC 2007) posing serious contests to water security ( Schroder et al., 2007) found that the loss of significant glaciers in Afghanistan and Pakistan may become more serious gradually unless warming creates greater marine evaporation that enhances precipitation. The global retreat of glaciers is striking and interaction of atmosphere-cryosphere approach is appropriate to study the dynamic behavior of glacial variations (Wagnon et al, 2001).

Temperature analysis revealed that snowline has shifted about one kilometre higher than its location 25 years before resulting into upward migration of animals and plants species (Rasul 2006). The effects of global warming in mountain areas are visibly revealed by reduction of mountain glaciers and reduced snow cover extent (Barry 2002). However, Hewitt (1998) reported the widespread expansion of large glaciers in the central Karakoram, accompanied by an exceptional number of glacier surges. Rasul et al., 2008 reported that the frequency and intensity of heat waves have significantly increased over the southern slopes of HKH along with an unprecedented increasing trend of annual mean temperatures over this heavily glacierized region. There are contrasting results from scientists about this region. The main reasons of this controversy include insufficient in-situ measurements, lack of data sharing and projection of small scale study over the entire region. However, all the scientists agree upon that low elevation glaciers are losing their ice mass at a faster rate and high elevation glaciers are comparatively stable or melting at a slow rate.

Most of the glaciers in Pakistan’s geographic limits are debris covered and melting rate differs according to the thickness and type of debris in addition to the other factors such as their aspect, elevation etc. Pakistan Meteorological Department in collaboration with several international research groups have been recording in-situ meteorological data and glacier characteristics by high altitude Automatic Weather Stations (3000-5000amsl) installed over the glaciers and through field measurements since 2006. At present 10 large glaciers are being studied in Karakoram and 2 in Hindu Kush Range. However, the extensive research is focused on two major glaciers Baltoro and Passu.

1.1.6 Desertification in Pakistan

Population growth and economic development continue to place increasing pressure on land use, particularly in developing areas of the world. Desertification, defined as “land degradation in arid, semiarid, and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities”, is a serious global environmental and ecological issue (UNEP 1994).

Pakistan being predominantly an arid and semiarid country depends to a large extent on irrigated agriculture for production of food and fiber for the domestic needs of its people and for earning foreign exchange by export of surplus commodities and agro based industrial products. The country has highly complex and diversified agro- ecological and socio-economic set-up. Watersheds in upper Indus and its tributaries suffer from unfavorable soil and moisture regimes. Accelerated surface erosion is reducing the lifeofTarbela and Mangla reservoirs which provide water for 90% of the food and fiber production in the country. The breakdown of losses, according to types of land degradation, are water erosion $5.4 billion; wind erosion $1.8 billion; fertility decline $0.6-1.2 billion; water-logging $0.5 billion and salinity $1.5 billion. In addition to agricultural productivity losses and increasing poverty, desertification results in significant reductions in carbon storage in soils, contributing to global warming, and loss of biodiversity. It also triggers soil erosion because of the loss of vegetative ground cover exacerbating water erosion and flash floods. These accelerate siltation of rivers, lakes and pollute water reserves (Shakeel et al).

1.1.7 Increasing population of Pakistan

Increasing population of Pakistan is the most titanic, challenging and stubborn problem, which the world faces today. Malthus stated that in the race between increasing population and increasing production, population must eventually win. Those of us who decline to accept this pessimistic view recognize the difficulty of the practical problem of meeting the needs of an ever-expanding population. Achieving a world population in balance with its environmental resources is crucial to the future of our planet and the welfare of its people. Population growth is a complex issue that directly or indirectly impacts all aspects of our lives and the conditions under which we live – from the environment and global stability to women's health and empowerment. Population control — or population welfare, if you want to be genteel — is the buzzword today. The focus has been on the economic impact of a rapidly growing population and its implications for employment. According to the economic survey of Pakistan 2010-11, the total population of Pakistan is 177.1 million against the 173.5 million in last year. Population growth rate is 2.1 % andPakistan is at 6th number in the list of most populous countries.Thepopulation of Pakistanhas grown at an average rate of 3 per cent per annum since 1951 and until mid-1980’s. Population growth slowed to an average rate of 2.6 per cent per annum during 1985-86 and until 1999-2000. However, since 2000-01 Pakistan’s population is growing at an average rate of almost 2 per cent per annum.

If Pakistan had succeeded in slowing its population growth rate to 2 per cent per annum since 1959-60, Pakistan’s population today would have been 103.4 million as against 152.53 million. In other words, the country’s population would have been 49.13 million less. Pakistan is relatively poorer today as a result of higher population growth rate in the past. Had Pakistan’s population grown at an average rate of 2 per cent per annum since 1959-60, Pakistan’s per capita income would have been Rs. 64366 today as against Rs. 43748. In other words, Pakistan would have been 52.02 per cent richer than what it is today. Furthermore, Pakistan’s per capita income in dollar term would have been $ 1083 rather than $ 736.

History cannot be changed; those who are already born are part of the society. What is needed now is to educate them, to provide them skill through training and to make them productive members of the society. This is what the government of 12

Pakistan is trying to do. It is trying to improve the quality of education. An extensive programme of vocational training is being developed to provide proper skills to the people so that they can become dynamic citizens of the country. During the last 50 years, Pakistan’s population has increased from 33 million to 152.53 million in 2004- 05. Thus making Pakistan the 7th most populous country in the world. Although the current population growth rate slowed to 1.9 per cent per annum, overall population has increased by 2.76 million people as compared to last year; this is still considerably high compared to the average of 0.9 per cent for the developed countries and 1.7 per cent for the developing countries.

According to one estimate, Pakistan's population will almost double in the next 32 years at the current growth rate of 1.9 per cent. Higher population growth supplies more work force in the market and given the low economic growth in the past, it creates less jobs. Thus, it puts pressure on educational and health facilities on the one hand and gives birth to unemployment, land fragmentation, overcrowding, katchiabadies, poverty, crime and environmental degradation on the other.

1.1.8 Deforestation

Deforestation is a main environmental anxiety in the world. Deforestation includes the cutting down, burning, and destructing of forests. Numerous researches suggests that deforestation may be the first link in a chain of environmental degradation that contains air pollution ,erosion,decline in watershed functions, climatic changes, loss of biodiversity and genetic endowment, , , and the apparent loss of, fuel wood, hardwood and aesthetic stocks. Population outburst is key basis for deterioration of the rain forests. These forests are being cut down at a petrifying rate to supply man with lumber, pasture land, and farm land. The outcome of such human activities is deforestation; the world's most valuable environment is being ruined. Plants and animal’s life is gradually diminishing as the natural habitats are bested.

Forest depletion is one of the most serious environmental issues for Pakistan. According to an estimate 39 thousand hectares of forests are vanishing annually. Between the years 1990 and 2000, the deforestation rate in Pakistan was 1.5% annually (FAO 2005). Studies based on remote sensing show that the rates of decline in forest cover in NWFP will lead to a complete disappearance of the forest from most

areas within 30 years. Though significant progress has been made in tree-planting, notably on farmland, it does not compensate the loss of natural forests (Suleri 2002).

This study shows the sustainability of agricultural production systems and en- dangerd economy of the country threatens bydepletion in the forest.Natural causes or human interventionsdegraded and turned arable agricultural and forestlands into wastelands andecological balance over time. Increasing population growth rate is also one of the main causes for rapid deterioration of natural resources. The riverine forests of Sindh (mostly growing along the river Indus in the flood plains) are spread over an area of 241,000 ha but are endangered very rapidly. Heavy floods that occurred in 1978, 1988, 1992 and 1997, altered the course of the River Indus in many places, especially in the lower reaches, this has also damaged the riverine forests of Sindh (Siddiqui et al., 2004).

The forests of Pakistan particularly Conifer forests reflect immense climatic and physiographic contrasts and are under constant pressure due to population growth, human activities and commercial harvesting for fuel wood mad timber utilization (Anon 2007). The most recent impacts of climate changes were also witnessed during the droughts of 1900 to 2000 in Pakistan (Anon 2007), owing to exertion of maximum pressure upon country’s natural resources and the environment.

In Pakistan, Conifer Forests are located mainly in Khyber PakhtunKhwa (KPK), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), Northern Areas, Baluchistan and northern Punjab. They are found at altitudes ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 meters. The areas like Mansehra, Dir, Swat, Malakand, and Abbottabad districts of KPK, and Rawalpindi district of the Punjab are mainly areas covered with these forests (Anwar 2008). In the current study, the Conifer forest in various regions and provinces of Pakistan was selected to highlight the subsequent reduction and causes in relation to climate change during the last two decades i.e., 1990-2010. The present study shows the annual change rate of conifer forests countrywide over a ten year period (1992-2001) was - 2.3%, while the analysis of subsequent ten years (2001-2010) revealed a decline rate of 0.28% which unfolds that forest area had decreased considerably.

1.1.9 Cloud burst

Cloud burst is an extreme amount of precipitation in a short period of time, sometimes accompanied by hail and thunder that is capable of creating flood conditions.A cloudburst can suddenly dump large amounts of water e.g. 25 mm of precipitation corresponds to 25000 metric tons/km2 (1 inch corresponds to 72,300 short tons over one square mile). However, cloudbursts are infrequent as they occur only via orographic lift or occasionally when a warm air parcel mixes with cooler air, resulting in sudden condensation. At times, a large amount of runoff from higher elevations is mistakenly conflated with a cloudburst. The term "cloudburst" arose from the notion that clouds were akin to water balloons and could burst, resulting in rapid precipitation. Though this idea has since been disproven, the term remains in use (UNESCO 2011).

A Cloud burst is actually a situation when the inter-molecular forces between the H2O molecules get very high due to the rapid decrease in the temperature or excess of electrostatic induction in the clouds causing the lightning to remain inside the cloud only, which causes hyperactive energy inside the cloud. The water molecules get denser and denser and get condensed but do not leave the cloud due to excess of electroforces.As the water concentration get higher and higher and so the weight gets heavier the water no longer is able to maintain force with the clouds and so they fall and it precipitates.

Cloud burst ofJuly 1, 1977, the city of Karachi was flooded when 207 mm (8.1 in) of rain was recorded in 24 hours, on July 23, 2001 620 mm (24 in) of rainfall was recorded in 10 hours in Islamabad. It was the heaviest rainfall in 24 hours in Islamabad and at any locality in Pakistan during the past 100 years, On July 23, 2001 335 mm (13.2 in) of rainfall was recorded in 10 hours in Rawalpindi, On July 18, 2009, 245 mm (9.6 in) of rainfall occurred in just 4 hours in Karachi, which caused massive flooding in the metropolis city, on July 29, 2010 a record breaking 280 mm (11 in) of rain was recorded in Raipur in 24 hours, on July 29, 2010 a record breaking 274 mm (10.8 in) of rain was recorded in Peshawar in 24 hours, onAugust 9, 2011 176 mm (6.9 in) of rainfall was recorded in 3 hours in Islamabad flooded main streets, on August 10, 2011 a record breaking 291 mm (11.5 in) of rainfall was recorded in 24 hours in Mithi, Sindh Pakistan, on August 11, 2011 a record breaking 350 mm (14 in) 15

of rainfall was recorded in 24 hours in Tando Ghulam Ali, Sindh Pakistan, on September 7, 2011 a record breaking 312 mm (12.3 in) of rainfall was recorded in 24 hours in Diplo, Sindh Pakistan, on September 9, 2012 Jacobabad received the heaviest rainfall in the last 100 years, and recorded 380 mm (15 in) in 24 hours, as a result over 150 houses collapsed.

A significant trendsof 60 years rainfall data of 48 stationsover upper parts (high latitudes) of Pakistan concluded that both annual and summer (monsoon) precipitation is increasing. The spatial display revealed that the monsoonal rainfall has not only increased over higher latitudes, but it has also shifted westward. More recently Vijay and Sharad (2010) also detected a decreasing trend in a long term data of monsoon rainfall of Kashmir. In other words, the monsoonal rainfall has moved away from the catchment areas of eastern rivers (Kashmir) of Pakistan, and has confined over north-western parts of the country. The north-western parts of the country have become highly vulnerable to flash floods as experienced more recently in July 2010. These areas required more attention for water management and to mitigate the flood disasters in the future. While the probability of occurrence of floods in the eastern rivers has become low due to west-ward shift of monsoonal precipitation as observed in the data of recent decades.

No significant change found in the area weighted average annual and seasonal (monsoon) rainfall of southern Pakistan. However, the spatial display of monsoon rainfall indicated a significant decreasing trend over parts of southern Pakistan (Sindh and Baluchistan provinces) which are extremely vulnerable to droughts as experienced during 1998–2001. This feature of declining precipitation is most significant and alarming for south Baluchistan and the coastal belt, which are getting drier. More care is therefore needed in further development projects in these areas that the encroachment of desert conditions (which has already become a permanent feature in parts of Baluchistan) may be averted. Although this declining precipitation trend may not be permanent but the environmental degradation will likely be aggravated, which in turn may be responsible for further shortfall in total annual rainfall in the future. It is difficult to present an overall indication of the potential impacts of climate change in Pakistan. However, the 60 years’ time period (1951–2010), during which annual and seasonal (summer) precipitation have shown significant variations in the

specific regions, is long enough to get an alarming attention about a possible climate change. Due to highly variable precipitation, Pakistan may face more water related disasters such as floods and droughts in the near future, and it is therefore recommended the restructuring of water management system by increasing the water storage capacity in the country (Hanif et al., 2013).

1.1.10 Other climatic factors

Climate change is a global problem is becoming a core discussion point at all forums. A number of anthropogenic activities as well as natural activities are responsible for this. Greenhouse gases are efficient to trap heat in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming (Jiconget al.,2006). Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) proposed potential for global warming (GWP) of different GHG because of differences in their heat absorption efficiencies and half lives in environment. Gases with longer half- lives have more detrimental effects than those having smaller half-lives. All greenhouse gases are ascribed on CO2 equivalence and CO2 got a core value in GHGs. With the industrial revolution, increase in carbon emissions occurred worldwide. The unchecked carbon emission leads to an increased ratio of carbon in atmosphere. It is thought that developing countries have major part in carbon emission and hence in climate change. This statement is true for early developmental stage i.e., up to 1970s because now developed countries, are at that time developing ones and they used coal excessively in their industries to produce goods but now they have limited their emissions or showed commitments to limit carbon emissions. Although developed countries have showed commitments to limit their carbon emissions but recent studies have proved that developing countries are more responsible for pollution than developed countries. For example, China being a developing country, crossed United States in carbon emissions as being the most carbon emitting country in 2007 (Kan et al., 2012). There are calls for developing countries globally to contribute in reduction of carbon emissions. This scenario is of great attention because increasing carbon level in atmosphere is increasing health as well as environmental impacts.

Rapid urbanization and deforestation is also affecting climate adversely. Urbanization in the world increasing rapidly and most of the urbanization is occurring in underdeveloped or developing countries (Linli et al., 2012). Cities only occupy 2% 17

of total world’s land and more than 50% world’s population is living in urban areas. This increase the use of energy and other resources because 75% of resources are being used by urban population and same ratio of waste generation is there all over the world (Manog 2009).

Rise in temperature, increasing humidity and changing rainfall trends are all clear indicators of climate change. Anthropogenic GHGs are greatly to blame for global change in temperature and warming over the last 50 years due to human activities and effecting many other natural cycles. With the rising temperature trends, climate is shifting and climatic events are becoming more and more intense. Succeeding trend analysis gives a clear picture of temperature of temperature rise in twentieth century that is about 1.5degree C globally. Due to rise in temperature many cities of world are now experiencing heat islands (Graves et al., 2001). Heat island is a phenomenon associated with temperature change. If the temperature of city gets a significant rise from surrounding bodies which are semi- urban or rural areas, this effect is known as heat island effect. Extreme weather events are associated with temperature change in the world. With the changing temperature, rainfall is becoming more and more intense and flash floods are all over the world. More flash floods, more causality are there. This will result in a wetter climate and will impact sea level to rise. Anthropogenic activities are altering course of rainfall and the pronounced variation in the regional flood is a continuing trend. This trend is a major driver for the movement of people from rural areas to urban environments (Argueso et al., 2010).

Pakistan is a developing country and experiencing extreme weather events from previous many years. Pakistan has a very dynamic position and climatic variations can be seen at a wider range here. Mainly four climatic conditions can be seen across the Pakistan ranging from northern and north-western parts of Pakistan to coastal strip. Coastal strip faces a warm and humid climate, Baluchistan is arid and cool while Punjab is extremely hot and semi-arid and northern areas are cool (Nicol et al., 1999). Many researchers have classified country in different regions based on climatic conditions ranging from 5 to 16 zones (Nicol et al., 1999) but Pakistan meteorological department claims that Pakistan experience a dry climate over all (Salma et al., 2012). As it is a developing country, it is more vulnerable to extreme

weather events such as temperature rise, monsoon variability, glacial melt and increased frequency of rainfall and floods (Malik et al., 2012). This change in climatic parameters has led to change average earth temperature globally. According to a group of scientists, global warming is a continuous phenomenon. This earth has faced many warm ages followed by ice ages. But with the industrial revolution, we changed the way of earths cooling and warming. The industrial development of this era is much more than the known previous ages. The development put an extra load on atmosphere and a recorded change of 0.6-degree C in temperature occurred since industrial revolution (Sadia et al., 2012). If the ongoing trend of temperature persists, it is predicted that by the end of 21st century temperature will experience a change of 1.1-degree C to 6.4-degree C.

This global change in temperature effect Pakistan directly as the melting of Himalayan glaciers is getting fast which is the major source of clean water in Pakistan. This fast melting of glaciers has serve consequences on low lying areas and coastal belt as floods and sea level. Deforestation in the Himalayas is mostly seen as caused mainly by population growth. It is critically examine this view using Basho Valley in the Western Himalayas of Pakistan indicate that the forest of Basho has been reduced by at least 50% after the valley was opened up through the construction of a link road in 1968. Large-scale legal and illegal commercial harvesting was carried out after the construction of the road. While legal commercial harvesting was stopped in 1987, illegal harvesting has since continued with the involvement of the Forest Department. The findings of this study do not support theories in which deforestation is attributed to rapid population growth. Instead, mismanagement and illegal commercial harvesting endorsed by the Forest Department have been the main causes of deforestation in Basho Valley (Jawad Ali et al., 2005).

The Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindukush supercilious mountain ranges meet each other in Pakistan presenting more than 5000 glaciers in Pakistani geographical bounds which feed snow/ice melt water to the Indus River System together with summer monsoon. Due to global warming, frozen water resources have been losing their reserves at an unprecedented rate, not only, reducing the ice mass but increasing the number and extent of glacial lakes. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are the devastating mountain hazards which have started occurring with increased frequency

during the recent years. An alarming increasing temperature trend in northern parts of Pakistan during the last decade which surpassed all the past records has enhanced the snow/ice melt rate and given rise to lake formation process some of which are potentially dangerous for outburst. Due to increase in temperature, the snowline has shifted upward causing migration of biodiversity and lower elevation glaciers have started melting faster. Snow used to occur now in late winter and disappears in early summer, hence, reducing the residency period to complete metamorphic processes for conversion into ice (Rasul et al.).

1.2 Water resources of Pakistan

Pakistan’s surface water hydrology is dominated by the Indus River and its five major tributaries (Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej). The Indus River system resembles a funnel with a number of water resources at the top converging into a single river that flows into the Arabian Sea .Under the 1960 Indus Basin Treaty between India and Pakistan, Pakistan is entitled to the flow of three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) with occasional spills from the eastern rivers Sutlej and Ravi diverted up stream by India. The flow of rivers under Pakistan control are mainly depend upon snow and glacier melt except Jhelum River, which also receives rainwater under monsoon system during summer. The average annual flows of the western and eastern rivers and their tributaries at the rim stations is 142 Million Acre feet (MAF) in which main Indus River contributes more than 45% of these average annual flows.

Five main rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej) and their tributaries flow through the country’s plains. The Indus, Jhelum and Chenab are known as the Western Rivers and Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej known as the Eastern Rivers. These rivers supply water to the entire Indus Basin Irrigation System. The rivers have their origin in the higher altitudes and derive their flows mainly from snowmelt and monsoon rains (GCISC).

Table 1.2. Based on 1961-2001 data for rivers flowing in Pakistan.

The catchment area of Indus is most unique in the sense that it contains seven of the world’s highest-ranking peaks, after Mount Everest. These include K-2 (28,253 feet), Nanga Parbat (26,660 feet), Rakaposhi (25,552 feet) etc. Likewise, barring the polar areas, seven glaciers situated in the Indus catchment, namely Siachin, Hispar, Biafo, Batura, Baltoro, Barpu and Hopper are amongst the largest in the world. The hydrological system of the Indus Basin is complex. It combines runoff from glaciers, Snowmelt and rainfall. It is further complicated by variable snow cover in space and time and by upward migration of melting temperatures with altitude. Glacier melt is the largest component of water supply in Indus River whereas combined water from glacier melt and snowmelt dominate flow for Chenab and Kabul rivers. The Jhelum River is mainly fed by snowmelt and rain water under summer monsoon system. These rivers originate in mountains with elevations ranging from 4500 to 7500 meters above sea level .The tremendous arc of the Karakoram Mountains, which extends over 350 km, holds the greatest concentrations of snow and glacier ice on the Asian mountains (Hewitt 1986). Melt water from these glaciers is the largest component of water supply in the rivers of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). An estimate shows that snow and glacier melt contribute up to 80% to the annual flows. The melting starts in early March in some basins and in April in others and continues throughout the

summer. River flow consists mostly of snowmelt until early July after that glacier melt becomes a major factor under the influence of monsoonal air masses.

The key vulnerability of Pakistan Water Resources to Climate Change is increased variability in river flows due to change in frequency and intensity of extreme Climate events, the glacier retreat, increased Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), river floods and droughts, depletion of water storage capacity, due to siltation/sedimentation, flash flooding, water-logging and salinity, degradation of environment causing impacts on water quality, shrinking wetlands and increasing demands for water in all the sectors. (GCISC).

Table 1.3. Existing floods protection infrastructure.

Name of Province Embankments (K.M) Spurs (No.)

Punjab 3,334 496

Sindh 2,424 46

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 352 186

Baluchistan 697 682

Total 6,807 1,410

(Source: FFC, Ministry of Water and Power)

1.2.1 Major flood events and historical flood peaks recorded in major rivers

Following are the major historical floods peaks which were recorded from the Indus,Jhelum, Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab rivers of different historical years.

Table 1.4.Peak flood flow recorded in Indus Rivers. Indus River Design capacity Flood year Peak flow TarbelaReservior 1,500,000 1929 8,75,000 Jinnah Barrage 9,50,000 1942 9,50,000 Chashma barrage 9,50,000 2010 1,036,700 Taunsa barrage 1,000,000 2010 9,60,000 Guddu barrage 1,100,000 1976 1,199,672 Sukkar barrage 9,00,000 1976 Kotri Barrage 8,75,000 1956 9,80,000 (Source: FFC, Ministry of Water and Power)

Table 1.5. Peak flood flow recorded in Jhelum Rivers. Jhelum River Designed capacity Flood year Peak Flow Mangla Reservoir 1,230,000 1929 1,10,000 Rasul Barrage 8,50,000 1929 1,000,000 (Source: FFC, Ministry of Water and Power)

Table 1.6.Peak flood flow recorded in Chenab Rivers. Chenab River Designed capacity Flood year Peak Flow Maralla barrage 1,100,000 1957 1,100,000 Khankhi barrage 8,50,000 1957 1,066,000 Qadirabad Barrage 8,07,000 1992 9,48,530 Trimmu Barrage 6,45,000 1959 9,4,3000 Punjnad barrage 7,00,000 1973 8,03,000 (Source: FFC,Ministry of Pater and Power) Table 1.7. Peak flood flow recorded in Ravi Rivers. Ravi River Designed capacity Flood Year Peak Flow Jassar 275,000 1955 6,86,000 Shahdara 250,000 1988 5,76,000 Balloki Barrage 2,25,000 1988 3,99,000 Sidhnai Barrage 1,50,000 1988 3,30,000 (Source: FFC,Ministry of Pater and Power)

Table 1.8. Peak flood flow recorded in Sutlej Rivers. Sutlej River Design capacity Flood year Peak Flow Sulemanki Headworks 3,25,000 1955 5,98,872 Islam Headworks 3,00,000 1955 4,93,000 (Source: FFC,Ministry of Pater and Power)

1.2.2 Sedimentation and loss of reservoir capacity

Glaciers and snow melting are associated with the soil erosion and sediment transport. This erosions rapid in the areas where the ice flows at high velocity. Sediments are eroded and join glaciers by several processes. Once the glaciers incorporate these sediments, they may carry these sediments downstream and release in the ablation zone. Pakistan, situated in arid and semi-arid zone, is suffering the soil erosion problems seriously. This erosion, caused by glacier/ice melt and decrease in natural vegetation due to deforestation and improper land usage, deposits heavy sediments in the dams and reservoirs downstream. Indus river catchment above Tarbela reservoir is particularly subject to heavy weathering effect under severe climatic conditions and due to the melting of glaciers Reservoirs have to face indispensable and unavoidable loss due to sedimentation that significantly reduces their storage capacity. In spite of an already short capacity of only 18.71 MAF, Pakistan loosing existing capacity day by day due to the heavy deposits of sediments in the reservoirs (GCISC). 23

Figure 1.2. Loss of storage capacity of three major reservoirs and total loss. (Data Source: Pakistan Development ForumPlanning for Water Resources).

1.2.3 Reservoirs sedimentation

Reservoir capacity is decreasing day by day due to siltation in dams, and reduced till 2025. Dams cannot hold more water and excessive water rush over land which cause flooding. All the water enters Arabian Sea.

Table 1.9. Reservoir capacity status in 2025.

(Source: WRM Directorate, WAPDA)

Figure 1.3. Storage loss of reservoir(Source; Water Resource Management).

This figure shows the original capacity of our three reservoirs, Terbela, Mangla and Chashma dams. First two bars are showing the dam capacity to store water which decreased in 2009.Other three bars are showing the loss of storage in these reservoirs till 2025. And the brown line indicates the sharp decrease in reservoirs capacity to store water which is a threating indicator of floods. That reservoirs capacity to store water due to silt sedimentation, and water will overflow causing floods and shortage of water in the country.

1.3.Objectives of study

The primary objective of the study is to develop an interactive, fully integrated framework for evaluation of the vulnerability assessment of Climate Change and floods of Pakistan. The objectives of present study are;

1. To analyse the rainfall patterns in context of floods. 2. To analyse the major threats for floods. 3. To analyse the gaps of the existing policies. 4. To propose the strategies that can reduce flood damages by 2025.

CHAPTER 2

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The whole study was carried out in order to find out the change occurred in the metrological parameters i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall of Pakistan of past twenty years with different climatic factors which are affecting the climate of Pakistan. This was done with the help of available literature, Meteorological data and use of Microsoft Excel. Following departments were visited to collect information about the floods;

• Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Islamabad Office

• Pakistan Meteorological Department (Glaciers)

• Federal Flood Commission (FFC)

• National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)

• Ministry of Climate Change

• Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

• Glacier Mountain Protection Organization (GMPO)

2.1.Data Collection

Meteorological data for analysis was collected from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Islamabad Office. Data for last twenty years (1995 to 2015) of fifteen stations including maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall was taken.

2.1.1 Microsoft Excel

Microsoft excel was used to manipulate data in various forms. Many effects were applied on data and average, maximum and minimum data recorded for all parameters in each month was calculated using the following formula.

2.1.2 Questionnaires A questionnaire was design to take the interviews of concerning people from relevant departments like PMD, FFC, EPA, PMD (MET and Glaciers), GMPO, NDMA etc., to find the root cause of flooding in Pakistan shown in Figure 2. 26

Table 2.1. Survey Questioner.

The vision 2025 of ministry of planning and development, Pakistan is going to be tested against various stack holders government department keeping in view the floods in Pakistan to scrutinize the vision 2025 policy using different aspects to judge and predict the effectiveness of this vision.

Furthermore, an in-depth SWOT analysis of the vision 2025 along with Federal Flood Commission, Pakistan Meteorology Department, Ministry of Climate Change and National Disaster Management Authority was carried out to evaluate the strength, weakness, opportunity and threats to the all the visions from these stakeholders. This

analysis will also help to depict the flexibility of the vision 2025 and the areas that the vision 2025 needs to build on to make it more effective.

The methodology adopted had to determine how effectively the vision 2025 covered various issues and in which conditions it would be able to achieve optimum implementation. Moreover, the plan was also to advise appropriate alternatives for policy measures wherever necessary. The first part of the analysis considered the following main points:

1. What are the key issues addressed in the vision and reports from other stakeholders. 2. Is the vision 2025 effectively addressing the floods in Pakistan. 3. What are the issues that need to be addressed more effectively in order to understand them and help in better implementation? 4. Alternatives required.

2.2. Analysis Part

Furthermore, after the preliminary analysis, key words were identified for situation analysis in priority areas selected. The priority areas were selected on the basis of their significance to GHG emissions and the effect of climate change on them. The main areas chosen were:

1. Floods 2. Climate Change 3. Industry Revolution 4. Glaciers 5. Desertification 6. Increasing Population 7. Deforestation 8. Cloud Burst 9. Water Resources 10. Reservoir Capacity

The key words identified in each situation analysis were then compared to the policy of each sector. The aim was to perceive whether the policy measures identified 28

in the Vision 2025 had been mentioned and had any connection with the policy measures in the policies of the relevant stakeholders.

As an additional activity, the policies from other stakeholders were compared with the Vision 2025. A document prepared by the Planning Commission of Pakistan in 2007 depicting a strategic framework for a prosperous Pakistan as a vision by 2025. The purpose of this analysis was to observe whether the policies from other departments is building the blocks to achieve the Vision 2025 objectives and goals.

Finally, based on the analysis recommendations have been drawn out.

CHAPTER 3

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Rainfall data was collected from Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) for the years 1995 –2015 on monthly average of 15 met- stations. Details of these stations are shown in table 3.1. Means monthly rainfall data was acquired from Pakistan Meteorology Department. Interpolation inverse distance weighted (IDW) tool was used in ESRI ArcGIS to find the scenario of rainfall pattern in the study area on 5 and 10 years average basis.

Table 3.1. List of the data collected from meteorological station. Serial no. City Name 1 Faisalabad 2 Jhelum 3 D.I.Khan 4 Gilgit 5 Khan pur 6 Lahore 7 Multan 8 Peshawar 9 Quetta 10 Rohri 11 Sargodha 12 Skardu 13 Zoab 14 Karachi 15 Kohat

Figure 3.2. Five years average rainfall pattern 1995-2000.

The 5 years’ average rainfall recorded is 9mm to 69mm throughout the country. The minimum rainfall during the period of 1995-2000 were observed in the South Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and Fata areas which is around 9mm -22mm. The maximum rainfall during the period of 1995-2000 was observed in the Northern Punjab, Khyber PakhtunKhawa, Azad Jammu & Kashmir and FATA that is around 56mm to 69mm.

Figure 3.3, Shows the rainfall pattern of 5 years 2006-2010. 31

The 5 years’ average rainfall recorded is 13mm to 71mm throughout the country. The minimum rainfall during the period of 2006-2010 were observed in the South Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan and Fata areas which is around 9mm -22mm. The maximum rainfall during the period of 2006--2010 was observed in the Northern Punjab and Khyber PakhtunKhawa that is around 58mm to 71mm.

Figure 3.4. Shows the rainfall pattern of 5 years 2011-2015.

The 5 years average rainfall recorded is 11mm to 75mm throughout the country. The minimum rainfall during the period of 2011-2015 were observed in areas of the Gilgit Baltistan, Northern areas, Southern Punjab and Baluchistan which was around 11mm -25mm. The maximum rainfall during the period of 2011-2015 was observed in the Northern Punjab, Khyber PakhtunKhawa and Azad Jammu & Kashmir that is around 60mm to 75mm.

Figure 3.5. Shows the rainfall pattern of 10 years1995-2005.

The 10 years average rainfall recorded is 7mm to 64mm throughout the country. The minimum rainfall during the period of 1995-2005 were observed in areas of the Gilgit Baltistan, Southern Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan which was around 7mm -20mm. The maximum rainfall during the period of 1995-2005 was observed in the Northern Punjab, Khyber PakhtunKhawa and Azad Jammu & Kashmir that is around 51mm to 64mm.

Figure 3.6. Shows the rainfall pattern of 10 years2006-2015.

The 10 years’ average rainfall recorded is 12mm to 71mm throughout the country. The minimum rainfall during the period of 2006-2015 were observed in areas of the Gilgit Baltistan, Southern Punjab, Fata, Sindh and Baluchistan which was around 12mm -25mm. The maximum rainfall during the period of 2006-2015 was observed in the Northern Punjab, Khyber PakhtunKhawa, Azad Jammu & Kashmir and FATA that is around 51mm to 7mm.

3.1.Glaciers melting evidences of last 25 years

Pakistan is located in South Asia between 24°-37°N latitude and 66°-77°E. In the northern part, Pakistan is the home of world’s three popular mountain ranges known as Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindukush ranges covering an area of about 15,000 km2. As glaciers act as a source of fresh water reserves in form of ice and natural manager for regional water supplies, so according to the inventory of glaciers in Pakistan, more than 5 thousand glaciers have been invented from 10 sub basins which facilitates Indus River and its tributaries rivers in Pakistan’s region.

Glaciers melting, their retreatment and advancement is an important phenomenon which can be best understood from the changing climatic conditions due

to which certain weather patterns changed unpredictably such as excessive snowfall or rainfall in one season and little or no snowfall or rainfall in the other. The change in climate has been observed since 1950’s and it can be well related to anthropogenic activities. Figure 1 show the continuous trend of increasing temperature, it is clear that the average annual temperature has start rising from 1943, and so current year and past few years i.e. 2008, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 were warmest years. Hence, seasonal melting of snow is having disastrous effect on Pakistan’s economy as well as on agriculture, drinking water supplies, hydro-electric power, and ecological habitats.

Remote sensing data has served as efficient method and provides platform for understanding of glacial phenomenon, such as snow melting and water management from the glacier sources. As for Pakistan which is developing country and is the home of some world’s largest and important glaciers and there is no easy excess to far flung areas, so remote sensing data proves to be very effective tool in gathering data about glaciers and obtaining reliable and timely information about glacial phenomenon such as glacial lakes outburst floods.

The aim of the study is to find the temporal change in glaciers by using remote sensing data, which is an important phenomenon to address the morphological changes in glaciers such as retreatment or advancement and also to relate it to the changing climatic conditions.

Figure 3.7. Temporal change in Passu Glacier.

Figure 3.8. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover and total area (km2).

Figure 3.9. Change in Batura glacier from 1990 to 2015.

Figure 3.10. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover and total area (km2).

Figure 3.11. Change in Baultar glacier in different years.

Figure 3.12. Chart representing relation between change in snow cover and total area (km2).

Figure 3.13. Change in Barpu glacier in different years.

Figure 3.14. Relation between total area and ice covered area (Km2).

Figure 3.15. Change in Hispar glacier in different years.

Figure 3.16. Relation between total area and ice covered area (km2).

Figure 3.17. Change in Virjerab glacier from 1990 to 2015.

Figure 3.18. Relation between total area and ice covered area (km2).

Figure 3.19. Change in Biafo glacier from 1990 to 2015.

Figure 3.20. Relation between total area and ice covered area (km2).

Some glaciers show similar trend, while some shows anomalous trend. Barpu, Baultar and Hispar shows same trend in the respected years i.e. from 1990 to 1999 total areas and ice cover decreases, in the next decade, from 1999 to 2009 both areas increase and then from 2009 to 2015 both increases, except in Hispar, from 2009 to 2015 there is no change in total area. The rest of the glaciers (Passu, Batura, Virjerab and Biafo) which shows different trend is explained in detail in this section.

Precipitation data also shows a change in pattern of monsoon in last 20 years (1995-2015). These patterns are changing and shifting towards north in mountainous areas and towards south in plain areas. Remaining country also showing the change of precipitation. Last few years are also showing increase in temperature which is becoming the cause of climate change.

3.2.Review of policies 3.2.1 Pakistan Vision 2025 (One Nation -One Vision) Our Shared Destination, for a nation to progress it must have a clear idea of its longer-term aspirations. Without this clarity it will neither be able to prepare a logical roadmap for action nor adopt and implement the policies that would lead towards the objectives. A national vision is meant to provide clarity to our shared vision of the future. Indeed, Pakistan was founded on such a vision—the “Pakistani Dream”, a vision of a prosperous, equitable, tolerant, and dynamic society—which was at the heart of the Independence Movement, even if, over the years, its clarity has diminished. It was the foundational vision for the new country, inspired by that generation of leaders, and articulated through the struggles of our people for independence and nationhood. The purpose of this document and all that has gone into its preparation is to recreate this vision, re-build upon it, and help translate it into reality. Since 1947, Pakistan has made considerable progress on many fronts. However, on the eve of our 68th independence day, there is consensus that the pace of progress has not been commensurate with the promise and potential of our nation; we need to do better and faster.

Pakistan Vision 2025 is designed to represent an aspirational destination. It will serve as a critical guide-post for the development of an e ective strategy and road-map to reach our national goals and aspirations. A renewedﬀ commitment to the founding vision is needed, both to address the current challenges and set out realistic 43

and ambitious targets for the future—including ensuring that Pakistan succeeds in achieving the proposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of zero poverty and hunger, universal access to health services, education, modern energy services, clean water and sanitation, and join the league of Upper Middle Income countries by 2025. Our ultimate aspiration is to see Pakistan among the ten largest economies of the world by 2047 – the centennial year of our independence. The challenges are compounded by a number of adverse exogenous developments, especially the looming threat of climate change, the aftermath of global economic, fnancial, and energy crises, unabated fragility of the global financial system, and the continued stagnation in developed country import demand as well as aid ﬂows.

The situation calls for a consensus-based national vision and comprehensive strategy to not only combat these challenges, but also proactively embrace the future based on ‘The Pakistani Dream’, which lay at the heart of the movement for the creation of Pakistan.

3.2.1.1 Climate change Global warming and the attendant climate change, resulting in significant and lasting change in weather patterns is having a severe impact on Pakistan including increased frequency and severity of natural disasters. This has a direct and major impact on each of our vital water, energy and food security considerations. Accordingly, our key goals for responding to climate change are

• Design water, food and energy security policies and plans of the country with specific reference to the profound challenges posed by climate change.

• Obviousgratitude of the related risks and associated economic and social costs and implementation of well-defined mitigation and adaptation.

• To promote long term sustainability, conservation and protection of natural resources.

While Pakistan makes a negligible contribution to total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (among the lowest in the world), it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The country has very low technical and financial capacity to adapt to and mitigate the e ects of climate change. Global warming has

ﬀ 44

caused acceleration in melting glaciers, shifts in biodiversity, changes in crop and vegetation distribution, vulnerability of mountain, desert, marine and coastal ecosystems.

3.2.1.2 Energy, water &food security Water, one of the key challenges to Pakistan’s already scarce water resources is the repeated contamination of the sources of water supply and disposal of effluent into fresh water resources, i.e. rivers, lakes, canals and ground water. In addition to industrial and sewerage effluent, the rainfall run o from the urban development into fresh water resources needs proper management beforeﬀ disposal/storage into dams and ground water resources. Watershed management is crucial to control the contamination of rivers, lakes and reservoirs. The catchment outflow into the rivers and reservoirs is highly turbid due to excessive sedimentation load, and stagnant water is rich in biological and bacteriological contaminants causing pollution of major reservoirs and river water. Major sources of contamination of river water are natural drains passing through urban and industrial areas. The outflow of these drains contains highly contaminated industrial waste that becomes the part of Ravi and Chenab Rivers. Water carries the contaminants along its ﬂow and there is a need of establishment of strict criterion to ensure e ective contamination management in

Rivers. Access to an adequate supply of waterﬀ for all (agriculture, industry and domestic users) is one of the absolute priorities of Vision 2025. Realizing Pakistan Vision 2025 requires policies to correct the demand and supply imbalance with a sharp focus on both sides of the equation. Our top five goals for water security are:

1. Increase water storage capacity, applicable to the requirements of each province, in line with defined strategic needs and international benchmarks: from currently 30 days to 45 days by 2018, and 90 days by 2025.

2. Invest in proven methods and technologies to minimize wastagepromote conservation and gain efficiencies through rationalization of pricing.

3. Enable more e ective allocation with direct reference to national & provincial priorities and relatedﬀ social and economic considerations.

4. Establish institutional mechanisms to e ectively manage all sources of water

(surface, subsurface, rain) and their sectorialﬀ and regional allocations (agriculture, industry, urban).

5. Provision of access to a minimum baseline of suitable water to every person in Pakistan.

Pakistan is in the group of countries that are now moving from water stressed to water scarce. Accordingly, as the supply of fresh water remains largely fixed and in view of the emerging issues related to climate change, ‘water resource management’ is both a serious challenge and opportunity. Institutional structure for water management in Pakistan is fragmented and there is no holistic national water management policy. Key reasons accounting for growing water scarcity include: sharp increases in population, declining storage capacity, falling water tables, ageing infrastructure, uneconomic cropping patterns, desertification, drought, rapid urbanization, growing industrial demand, lack of adequate and standard laws for water usage (and re-use) and alarming growth in water contamination. One of the key challenges to Pakistan’s already scarce water resources is the repeated contamination of the sources of water supply and disposal of effluent into fresh water resources, i.e. rivers, lakes, canals and ground water. Pakistan’s rising water demands are met by the Indus River System, supplying 180 billion cubic meters of water. The river system is sustained by glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges, believed to be receding under inﬂuence of climate change and global warming. 75% of annual Indus river system supplies occur during three monsoon months and all access availability goes to the sea due to inadequate storage capacity. New reservoirs will be built quickly to ensure supplies during the rest of the year for agricultural, industrial and domestic consumption. Due consideration will be provided to harvest rain water in lakes and ponds and also at the household and community levels.

3.2.2 National Disaster Management Authority NDMA is mandated under the NDM Act 2010 to act as applying, organizing and monitoring figure for disaster management. It is also required to laydown guidelines for formulating disaster management plans by different ministries or departments and Provincial Authorities. Moreover, under thisAct 2010, NDMA is to establish response in the experience of any threatening disaster condition or disaster. 46

Monsoon in Pakistan results into rainfall of variable concentration from July to September each year. The risk of flood hazards associated with Monsoon can turn into a disaster which merits prior preparation by all departments at Federal and Provincial level. NDMA being the main federal agency, as per assigned mandate issues a monsoon contingency response every year before monsoon, based on the forecast of Pakistan Meteorological Department to lay down response plans in the realm of Flood Disaster Management i.e. flood fighting, preparedness, rescue, relief, recovery, restoration etc. to reassert the coordination mechanism am Responsibility Matrix. An overview of responsibility matrix at National and Provincial level is as under;

1. Weather Forecast - Pakistan Meteorological Department. 2. Flood Forecast - Flood Forecasting Division of PMD. Other contingencies plans are including the following parameters 1. De-silting of storm water drains / sewerage drains. 2. Serviceability of pumping stations. 3. Assured provision including procurement and placement of heavy duty de-watering pumps at most vulnerable areas of each city centre.

4. Provision of backup electricity arrangements in the form of generators for sewage disposal stations. 5. Availability of gender and aged disaggregated data including that of disabled and old persons at district level, must be ensured to cater for the needs of all segments of population, including vulnerable groups in rescue and relief operations.

6. Locations of relief camps must be identified and investigation / management must be done

7. Public Service Messages (PSMs) through print / electronic media must be started forthwith by PDMAs / SDMA / GBDMA / FDMA / DDMAs.

8. All concerned departments and local communities must be apprised about Pre- Monsoon Forecast 2016 and it’s likely unfolding at the onset of Monsoon.

9. Community must be informed about safer places, relief camps and evacuation plans by concerned departments.

10. Pakistan Utility Stores Corporation (USC) will forward resource mapping along with inventory of items. USC will further ensure maintenance of sufficient stock levels and supply chain to support community in all flood prone areas especially far flung areas of KP, GB, AJ&K and Baluchistan.

11. Landslides prone areas, hill torrents, seasonal mullahs and river plains must be identified by local communities with the ability to shift immediately to safer places, in case of emergency.

12. A bag containing important utility items like first aid medicines, dry ration, water, charged torch, radio set, mobile phone, cells, match box, candles, charged batteries, mosquito repellent / net, important documents including CNIC and some cash money should always be readily available.

13. Preventive measures against infectious / skin diseases and Cholera etc. must be taken and vaccination done at first instance.

14. Vaccination of animals to be done and arrangements of fodder to be kept in sight. 3.2.3Federal Flood Commission

Flood Control Objective & Need Flood management planning in Pakistan is being carried out to essentially cover the following three specific objectives:

i. To reduce or eliminate damages to existing properties; ii. To prevent future increase in damages; and iii. To mitigate the residual hazards. 3.2.4 National Climate Change Policy as a step towards the accomplishment of Vision 2030

The document of Vision 2030 was approved by the National Economy Council (NEC) of Pakistan in May 2007 and launched in August 2007. This was a document that hoped to pave the way towards a more economically sound, industrialized and just Pakistan through sustainable development (Planning Commission, 2007).

The Vision 2030 aspires the coming years for Pakistan to be a manifestation towards a growth in economy by proper dissemination of knowledge and to make Pakistan a state of erudition, technological advancement without losing the identity of a sovereign nation. Since, this study deals with the environment and Climate Change in particular; the Vision 2030 was scrutinized for its foresight concerning Climate Change and related sectors in the future. Vision 2030 includes food and agriculture, energy, natural resources, Climate Change and sustainability as few of the many challenges that Pakistan is expected to face in the future. The document also puts great emphasis on the promotion of a healthy social, economic and natural environment to support human habitat, to make Pakistan an “enabling environment” for growth. The Vision 2030 recognizes Pakistan’s ecological environment and biodiversity as an important agenda for the society and the loss that will be faced in the future due to its degradation. The major aims of the vision is to increase the awareness of environmental benefits due to conservation, increase natural resources management by communities and incorporating issues of the environment into planning agendas for sustainable development.

Overall, the Vision 2030 shows great concern for the environment of Pakistan, highlighting many areas that need attention, such as environmental assessments, maintenance of environmental quality and follows suit of the MDG to increase economic growth without causing pollution, inefficient energy use, decrease in sanitation and drinking water. When referring to Climate Change, the Vision 2030 states that this alarming environmental issue coupled with depleting natural resources and energy reserves can increase Pakistan’s vulnerability and hinder Pakistan’s route to sustainability. In section 6.8 of the NCCP, page 59, an elaborate detail of how the country is expected to be affected by climate change is presented. The Vision states that a change is required in the human mind set about climate change at institutional level, also the agriculture sector needs to adopt methods in farming that would not only produce high yield but also be resistant to climate change. This makes it evident that the NCCP needs to focus on the incorporation of science and technology in the policy and support the statements with scientific background. The NCCP as identified in the primary analysis focuses on biotechnology and technological enhancement in agricultural technique, therefore moving in parallel with the goals of Vision 2030.

The NCCP also addresses the need of awareness raising concerning Climate Change through the introduction of national Climate Change awareness programs and workshops at ministerial and local level. The NCCP should also focus on educating the under privileged masses which are going to be affected by the Climate shift disasters such as floods and droughts.

The energy section of the NCCP needs to incorporate wind energy as an alternate energy option because according to the Vision 2030 the possibility of producing energy with the assistance of wind is high, with the added advantage of being eligible for carbon credits and carbon off sets. A shared perspective between the Vision 2030 and the NCCP is alternate energy such as the development of hydro power and large water resources. The Vision 2030 states that the energy demand for Pakistan is expected to increase by seven percent over the coming years. Reduction in emissions is aimed to be taken care of through carbon sequestration and reforestation.

3.2.5Framework for implementation of Climate Change Policy (2014-2030)

Government of Pakistan is entirely cognizant of the circumstance that for Pakistan, climate changes threats are not just inadequate to environmental concerns, but more precisely these are economic and developmental challenges. As such the Framework for Implementation of NCCP document has been designed to promote effective institutional framework to mainstream climate change concerns into overall national planning and to promote climate compatible development with clear sets of roles and responsibilities at the federal and provincial levels.

1. Ensure that the basic norms of watershed management are followed to protect erosion.

2. To identify the environmental threats to the uphill watershed and catchment areas of the rivers flowing in the plain regions of Pakistan.

3. Setup a task force on water, comprising relevant experts to study all relevant issues including international laws and convention to develop strategy to safeguard Pakistan’s rights on trans-boundary water.

4. Setup another mutual interest council to identify and handle issues of post Indus Basin water Treaty (IBWT) between India and Pakistan in the light of emerging environmental and climate change concerns.

5. Undertake a study to identify the potential environmental threats to the watershed and catchment areas of the rivers flowing into Pakistan.

6. Setup a regional river waters study group to assess the environmental impacts on trans-boundary watershed and catchment areas.

7. SAARC or Indus Water Commission forum be used to set up Joint Environment Management Group for joint water shed management through appropriate agreement.

8. Provide incentives to local population living in watershed areas to ensure plantation and sustainability through their concrete participation.

9. The importance of conservation and sustainable use of water resources be added to schools and madaras curriculum.

10. Take appropriate measures for construction of additional storage capacity while ensuring minimum base flows in all rivers.

11. Organize integrated command area development for the existing and planned dams.

12. Design and implement projects (e.g. afforestation, gabion’s structures etc.) that reduce land erosion and avoid silting of dams.

13. Explore the option of fixing the irrigation water pricing for generating the financial resources for the regular sustainability of irrigation infrastructure (IFCCP 2014).

3.2.6Flood control strategies taken by developed and neighbouring countries

UK apply the measures to prevent more flooding in future by introducing better flood warning systems, modifying homes and businesses to help them withstand floods, constructing buildings above flood levels, to tackle climate change, increase spending on flood defences, protecting wetlands and planting trees

strategically, restore rivers to their natural courses, introduce water storage areas and by improving soil conditions.

In USA, flood hazard mitigation can be generally separated into structural and non- structural methods. Structural approaches are based on engineering intrusions to control floods or protecting human settlements by building seawalls, embankments, canals, and revetments. In contrast, non-structural approaches are based on modification of human activities and communities to mitigate flood impairment with measures such as guiding land use away from risky areas, collaborating mitigated information, protecting sensitive areas, and insurance schemes to distribute risk.

In India, the engineering measures for flood control which bring relief to the flood prone areas by reducing flood flows are artificially created reservoir behind a dam across a river, by improving natural depression, diversion of a part of the peak flow to another river or basin, where such diversion would not cause damage, construction of parallel channel by passing a town of the river prone to flooding. The engineering methods of flood protection, which do not reduce the flood flow but reduce spilling are embankments which artificially raise the effective river bank and thereby prevent spilling and channel and drainage improvement works, which artificially reduce the flood water level to keep the same, confined within the river banks and thus prevent spilling.

The integrated approach to flood management in China is comprehensive and complex. The flood management strategies in China comprises that storing the flood water in upstream areas to the extent possible, protection of flood prone areas against ordinary flood in middle and downstream of major rivers, joint use of levees, storage and detention basins in middle stream for handling the extraordinary floods, preparedness and flood fighting before and during flood season relying on the well- organized emergency management system. The other flood control mitigations are the soil and water conservation, Integrated regulation and management of small catchments, reinforcement of prevention of soil erosion, establishment of market oriented mechanism in soil and water conservation by special funding and flood- proofing are strategies of China to overcome the losses of flooding.

In conclusion, the Vision 2030 just graces upon the important sectors of the environment such as energy, natural resources, climate change and sustainability. Climate change is given importance but prominence has been given to energy and environment. However, as both of the documents show coherence in their goals, the NCCP will be a significant policy document which can help in the fulfilment of Vision 2030.

Table 3.2. SWOT analysis of given policies. Key words NDMA FFC VISION 2025 NCCP Strength •Comprehensiv •Ensure •Aim to •The purpose e monsoon funding for all promote of the policy contingency provinces. sustainable is to reduce plans. •Ten years’ development. adverse •All flood strategic plan •Technological effects of prone areas are for water advancement. Climate well covered. monitoring. •Recognition Change. •A complete of the effects •The policy documentation of Climate focuses on before floods Change on alternate with new country energy. technologies. •Plan for new •Priority of •A large dams and technological network of reservoirs to development working bodies store water. in many at every step sectors such (national, as water, provincial, agriculture district level) and energy

Weakness •Effects have •No political •Very few •Plenty of been discussed measure for areas awareness and less focus trans-boundary pertaining to raising has been given catchment Climate recommendat to adaptation areas. Change. ions in every •Weak •Over •Focus on sector. implementation ambitious droughts and •Effects have mechanism targets floods are not been •Rain water •Lack of directly discussed and Harvesting conservation discussed less focus has given ample techniques •Lack of been given to

importance •Lack of technological adaptation. •Lack of accountability advancement •Participation technical labor of •No backup international energy •Lack of donors have arrangement priority to not •Lack of build dams considered accountability during the •Lack of consultation coordination phase between •Lack of working public agencies consultation Opportunity •Need for •Improvement •Climate •It needs to promotion of in Change research on international implementatio measures the prospects image and n framework should be of wind partnership can have great included into energy and results national level other •Need planning. energies. assessment of •Participation •Incentives institutions of international for alternate before donors energy, institutions are especially set up for wind and capacity biogas for building. low income areas and solar energy for bigger projects •International

reporting and recognition through research Threats •Political •International •Lack of •Political interference establishment coordination issues will •Lack of influences and will of cause the experts in •No political relevant sector hindrance of relevant extent for ministers and policies departments trans-boundary polices which require •Lack of catchment •Corrupt mind technological political will regions sets development •Red Tapism •The policy •Lack of lacks a grip awareness

Table 3.3. Summation of results. Sectors Area of Improvement Federal Flood Commission (FFC) Administrative Capacity National Disaster Management Economic Efficiency, Administrative Authority (NDMA) capacity, Technical man power National Climate Change Policy(NCCP) Plenty of awareness raising recommendations in every sector Vision 2025 Weak stance overall in water sector

Table 3.4. Gaps in all sectors Sr. no. Gap Analysis 1 Negligence on building new dams and reservoirs on priority bases 2 Ignorance on maintenance of dams from silt and debris 3 Policies are not properly implemented 4 Political interference and political will 5 Lack of coordination between all departments working on floods 6 Lack of funding

7 Negligence on rain water harvesting, and transboundary waters 8 Lack of technical labour

CONCLUSION

The language used in the policies is fairly simple. The policy documents in itself are very extensive, therefore, making it a very tedious and extensive read. The policies should have been more concise and ideas given in a less persistent manner so that the relevant stakeholders would be interested in reading it, despite their busy schedule.

Despite the fact that many areas have been covered, the policy measures given in some are mostly unclear and do not give a specific target of action. For example, while mentioning measures to reduce Climate Change effects on water resources, it is aimed that new dams and reservoirs will be build, but no method as to how this is going to be carried out is mentioned and in what areas, such as watershed areas or low land areas Such type of shortcomings in many policy measures have left them very vague and open ended for implementation. This could be a drawback in making an action plan as it arises numerous questions. Moreover, before formulating the policies, the audience have to be kept in mind. The Climate Change policy is for Pakistan, a country with various political, economic and social issues. Therefore, environmental issues may not be given a high enough priority by all stakeholders. In order, to make the policies viable and objectives achievable it has to be more realistic. Setting up great goals which are difficult to reach by a developing country is only going to insignificant the policy effect as application would become impossible.

Policies shows that we have manpower and instrument but due to lack of technical knowledge we suffer damages in disasters. Floods can be managed properly through flood mitigation systems. In Pakistan we have three potential Flood Hazard Moon soon rains, Northern glaciers and Dams.Pakistan is more commonly exposed and vulnerable to moon soon rains which are predictable and come periodically. With modern satellite weather forecast we can take affective measures to minimize its damages. Second potential hazards are Terbela, Mangla dams, which due to any sudden event can create Flood disaster, because the reservoirs capacity is reducing day by day by siltation. For this type of hazard, we must educate those people whose are vulnerable in downstream area about risk and hazard. Third, glaciers in northern Pakistan due to global warming is also potential hazard, this hazard can generate flood in Pakistan. we can reduce its affect by constructing Dam in northern area. 57

However, some of the objectives set in the policy are very praiseworthy and determined. For example, the incorporation of economic incentives to encourage public and private sectors to adopt the policy measures are radical and idealistic in the context of Pakistan. Without economic incentive it is likely that the stakeholders will not accept the measures.

The contribution to the economic development cannot be identified without the proper implementation of the policies. Being an ambitious document, are likely to have positive impacts on the mainstreaming with effective implementation. Majority of the areas have been covered. The study also set out to explore the contribution of the National Climate Change Policy to the Vision 2025 of Pakistan. By conducting these steps, an overall analysis of the given policies gave an outlook as to whether these were sustainable and implementable given the current situation of the country and how much it contributed towards fulfilling the goals of the Vision 2025. Pakistan being a country which has been part of the environment conscious international community and signatory to various conventions on environmental issues especially climate change, needs to have strong polices and project implementation frameworks and action plans to be able to present themselves as an environmentally aware and conscious country.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. There must be laws to protect the climate and implement the climate change prevention measures. 2. Building of new dams and parallel reservoirs other neighbouring countries, who developed to divert flood water from Peak Rivers to these parallels reservoirs, on prior basis to store water. 3. Sustainable strategy based on contemporary approach by observing climate change and planning to mitigate consequence of extra water resources by storing water in dams and reservoirs. 4. There must be a coordination between all departments and a monitoring department must be established which can have built a bridge among all working bodies which are working on flood mitigations, so that the goals can be achieved. 5. Awareness programs on all levels must be introduced to educate our society on all levels. This must be the part of our curriculum that our new generation will be educated from their beginning. 6. There must be a monitoring team, which will check the implementation process and a time line is required for all the proposed recommendations and development projects, for example, ten years, five years or annually to identify the implementation status. 7. Need assessment of institutions before institutions are set up for capacity building. 8. Conflict between sector policies and NCCP need to be removed for effective implementation. 9. Pakistan should focus on developing its own national environmental and flood control funds supported by the government and such as Bangladesh and China, which is currently being operated successfully in these countries. 10. The basic frame work of concerned departments should be improved further in such a way that inherent complications in implementation should be removed. 11. Indigenous and worldwide funding allocated to mitigate the risk of floods should be utilized effectively by further decentralizing the fund allocations. 12. Post utilization evaluation mechanism on effectiveness of fund utilization be devised for effectiveness, efficiency and economy of spending.

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