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Fixed Income Charts and Views Ultra Dovish Central Banks Put Fixed Income Investing Back to the Core Investment Insights | Market Stories

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Fixed Income Charts and Views Ultra Dovish Central Banks Put Fixed Income Investing Back to the Core Investment Insights | Market Stories Q3 2019 Fixed Income Charts and Views Ultra dovish Central Banks put fixed income investing back to the core Investment Insights | Market Stories Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry Fixed income back to the core: Search for yield, flexibility, and ESG are major themes A slowdown in global growth, with subdued inflation and dovish central banks (CB) committed to avoiding further economic deceleration, is a trend that, in our view, should remain favourable for bond investors. On one side, this should limit the upside in core bond yields and, on the other, support the credit market, although we are aware that the spread compression in this first part of the year has been very strong and that an increasingly selective approach will be crucial to exploiting pockets of value. Other dominant factors within the fixed income environment are the increased role of politics, the still present short-term downside risks regarding the economy, the high level of debt globally, and, moving towards the long term, rising acknowledgment of climate and societal-related risks. Against this backdrop, rethinking fixed income investments as a core part of investors’ portfolios is Eric Brard crucial both to deliver attractive risk/adjusted returns and to seek protection and effective diversification Head of Fixed Income in phases of market turmoil. We identify three recurring themes for investors: . The search for yield further emphasised by the rally in core bonds. The need to embrace a flexible and diversified approach in a late phase of the cycle when sudden changes in market sentiment are more likely. The emergence of ESG and climate change as key topics in portfolio construction. This publication combines views from our global teams of portfolio managers, macro-economists, strategists and Investment Insights specialists with the aim of providing our ideas with regard to investing in fixed income markets for the months ahead. We hope you find the information helpful, Eric Brard Page 2 I Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry Past performance is no guaranteeSource: of Bloomberg, future Amundi. results. Data as of 17 July 2019. All indexes are total return in local currency. For the list of indices used in this chart, see notes at the end of the presentation. Fixed income markets in 2019 Page 3 I 10% 12% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry 2018 Cash Euro Cash 3m US Cash 3m YTD 2019 EMU Govies Govies US Govies Japan Govies 2018 vs YTD 2019 Performances UK Govies Euro Infl. Link Inflation Linkers US Infl. Link Jap. Infl. Link UK Infl. Link Credit IG Euro IG US IG Credit HY Euro HY US HY EM Govies HC EM EM Govies LC Table of contents 2. Fixed Income 1. Macro Themes 3. Conclusions Investor Needs . Key macro themes 6 . Fixed income investor needs 14 . Conclusions 25 . Growth decelerating 7,8 . Search for yield 15-18 . Contributors 26 . Dovish Central Banks 9,10 . Flexibility and diversification 19-23 . References and definitions 27 . Geopolitical uncertainty 11 . ESG & climate change 24 . Long-term risks 12 Page 4 I Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry Macro themes 5 Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry 1. Macro 2. Fixed Income 3. Conclusions Themes Investor Needs Key macro themes KEY THEMES LONG-TERM FOCUS GROWTH: DOWNSIDE CENTRAL BANKS DOMINANCE OF GLOBAL TRADE, RISKS, “BAZOOKA” READY POLITICS SET TO DEBT, CLIMATE NO RECESSION IN AGAIN REMAIN CHANGE 12 MONTHS Economic slowdown CBs have returned to Some recent improvement Some challenges have to continued in Q2, and quality accommodative monetary (Italy, EU appointments, be monitored in the long of growth deteriorated policies. Reactive fine- trade talks), but the list of term: global trade retreat, (weaker investments, trade). tuning in speed and risks is still long: China - high/growing debt, CB “insurance policy”, magnitude US, Iran, Brexit, interference climate change risk fiscal/monetary expansion in CB policy and trade truce could help the economy to stabilize Source: Amundi, as of 23 July 2019. Page 6 I Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry Economic deceleration and low inflation Source: Bloomberg, Amundi Research. Data as of 23 July 2019. Page 7 I 3.8 World reacceleration of growth in bothAccording EM and to Europe moving our towardsexternal 2020. component, forecasts, due to the tariffGlobal increases, US and growth the economy is manufacturing sector projected should are to the also slow weakest spots. decelerate down to in 3.3% 2020 in 2019. while Domestic there demand is could a be key a driver of slight growth while the 2018 3.3 2019 Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry 3.4 2020 World GDP annual average growth rate, YoY average, % Developed 2.2 Markets 2018 DM 1.8 2019 1.5 2020 4.9 Emerging 2018 Markets EM 4.4 2019 4.6 2020 2.9 2018 2.4 2019 US 2020 1.8 1.9 Eurozone 2018 1.0 2019 1.2 2020 6.6 2018 China 2019 6.2 6.1 2020 Themes 1. Macro GROWTH DM EM Inflation CPI, YoY Investor Needs 2. Fixed Income Emerging Developed World Markets Markets 2018 3.2% 4.0% 2.0% 2019 3.0% 3.9% 1.6% 3. Conclusions 3.0% 3.8% 1.8% 2020 1. Macro 2. Fixed Income 3. Conclusions Themes Investor Needs CENTRAL BANKS A “pre-emptive” FED to prolong the cycle ISM Manufacturing and the Fed in the '90s ISM Manufacturing and the Fed since 2007 6% 65 10% 60 9% 5% 60 8% 55 55 7% 4% I n I n d d 6% 50 50 e e x x l 3% e 5% l e v v 45 e e l 4% 45 l 2% 3% European 40 Commodity Mexican Asian crisis 2% crisis 40 crisis crisis + 1% 35 1% LTCM 0% 35 0% 30 Recessions Fed Target Rate (lhs) Recessions Fed Target Rate (lhs) ISM Manufacturing PMI (rhs) ISM Manufacturing PMI (rhs) manufacturing recession does not always mean a general recession. In the mid-1990s and in 1998, the Fed cut rates by 75 bps (as ISM was < 50) and eventually prolonged the cycle. Today, the yield curve has inversed, which means that the neutral rate has probably been reached. Given the deflationary risk (a big difference vs the 1990s), the Fed has decided to act in a more preventive manner. Source: Bloomberg, Amundi Research. Data as of 23 July 2019. Source: Bloomberg, Amundi Research. Data as of 23 July 2019. Page 8 I Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry 1. Macro 2. Fixed Income 3. Conclusions Themes Investor Needs GROWTH Looking at the yield curve and PMI indicators Yield curve inversion and US recessions US PMI indicators 400 62 350 300 60 ) s p 250 58 b ( l a 200 i t 56 n e 150 x r e e f d 54 f i 100 n I d d l 50 52 e i Y 0 50 -50 48 -100 46 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Recession Yield Spread between 5-year and 30-year Treasuries PMI Manufacturing PMI Non-Manufacturing Yield Spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries ISM Danger Zone Rising concerns over the US economic outlook, mainly due to the weakening manufacturing sector, have pushed the yield differentials between three-month and 10-year yields below zero for the first time since 2007 ‒ in a pattern that in the past had anticipated future recessions. Source: Bloomberg, Amundi. Data as of 12 July 2019. Source: Bloomberg, Amundi. Data as of 12 July 2019. Page 9 I Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry Rates, % -1 Central Banks dovish across the board 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Page 10 I Source: Bloomberg, Amundi. Data as of 7 July 2019. US Fed: Federal Reserve; ECB: European Central Bank; BoE: Bank of England; BoJ: Bank of Japan. 2007 BoE ECB Fed DM CB accommodative stances. EM Central Banks: BoJ Fed Document for the exclusive attention of professional clients, investment services providers and any other professional of the financial industry 2008 Easy monetary policy to be continued at least until 2020. A more accommodative stance in case of need. Chances of a rate cut occurring have increased, Brexit still an open question Becoming even more dovish. We expect the 50bps of rate cuts by the end of 2019. More easing to come. Reopening of QE (CSPP) and further rate cuts in case of “adverse contingencies”. 2009 Nominal Central Banks' Rates 2010 2011 ECB 2012 Softer stances from most EM central banks, given more benign inflation expectations and 2013 2014 BoE 2015 2016 2017 BoJ 2018 2019 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 FOMC Jan. meeting Fed funds effective rate Implied yield on August 2019 Fed funds future Markets price Fed rate cuts Themes 1.
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