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Monthly Investment Guide ab Monthly Investment Guide Portfolio Advisory Group May 2010 Private Wealth Management C:\DPS NEW\Pres\PPT\PresPrint.pot Contributors Members of the PWM Portfolio Advisory Group Anthony Roth Head, PWM Portfolio Advisory Group Richard Hollmann, CFA® Senior Portfolio Construction Specialist Ronald Colonna, CFA® Senior Portfolio Construction Specialist Christian Capasso Business Analyst Andrea Fisher Business Analyst Sujata Hingorani Business Manager UBS Wealth Management Americas Investment Committee Stephen Freedman, CFA® Global Investment Strategist, Wealth Management Research-Americas (WMR-A) Simeon Hyman, CFA® Head, Investment Strategy and Manager Research, Investment Solutions Anthony Roth Head, PWM Portfolio Advisory Group Michael Ryan, CFA® Head, WMR-A, Chair Jeremy Zirin, CFA® Head, Equities, WMR-A CFA® is a trademark owned by the CFA Institute. 1 C:\DPS NEW\Pres\PPT\PresPrint.pot PWM Portfolio Advisory Group Introduction Monthly Investment Guide The Private Wealth Management Portfolio Advisory Group (PWM PAG) is pleased to provide our valued clients the May 2010 Monthly Investment Guide. The Guide sets out key economic and market data from the past month and offers forward-looking UBS views over a wide range of market and investment areas. Unless otherwise noted, all opinions, projections and forecasts found within this Guide are taken from research conducted and published by UBS Wealth Management Research-Americas. All strategic asset allocation models included have been developed by UBS Investment Solutions, a business sector within UBS Wealth Management Americas that develops research-based traditional investments (e.g., managed accounts and mutual fund offerings) and alternative strategies (e.g., hedge funds, private equity and real estate) offered to UBS clients. The tactical asset allocation models presented reflect the strategic asset allocation models overlayed with the tactical shifts that have been identified by the UBS Wealth Management Americas Investment Committee (WMA-IC), which is made up of members from various business groups within UBS Wealth Management Americas. The short- and long-term investment ideas reflect the views of PWM PAG and UBS Wealth Management Americas product areas. For more information on the composition of the UBS Wealth Management Americas Investment Committee, please see the previous page. In publishing this Guide, PWM PAG intends to provide a general framework to assist our clients in making informed investment decisions. Specifically, the current strategic and tactical asset allocation models respectively reflect the short- to-medium- and long-term views on an asset-class level of various business groups within UBS Wealth Management Americas. In providing these models, we have differentiated among investors whose net portfolio withdrawals exceed 5% of portfolio value from those whose withdrawals do not. With respect to the latter group of clients, the models included reflect a higher allocation to illiquid asset classes, which seek to align with the clients' reduced liquidity needs. Please note that the asset allocation models are current as of the date shown, but that UBS Wealth Management Americas revises these models as warranted. In the context of making actual investment decisions, clients should work with their Private Wealth Advisors to customize their portfolios to meet their unique financial and life circumstances, taking into account age, risk tolerance, financial commitments and short-term liquidity needs. In addition, each UBS program, product or service is subject to specific eligibility and suitability requirements, each of which must be met in order for a client to invest. Implementing or changing an investment strategy may result in incurring gains or losses for income tax purposes. Neither UBS Financial Services Inc., nor any of its employees, provides tax or legal advice. We encourage all investors to consult qualified tax and legal counsel where appropriate, particularly before undertaking any investment in a product that may use leverage, options, derivatives or other complex financial structures. Finally, nothing contained herein should be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation of an offer to buy securities or other investments identified. Unless otherwise noted, all information in the Monthly Investment Guide, including allocations, is as of May 10, 2010. Important Information It is important that you understand the ways in which we conduct business and the applicable laws and regulations that govern us. As a firm providing wealth management services to clients, we are registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an investment adviser and a broker-dealer, offering both investment advisory and brokerage services. Though there are similarities among these services, the investment advisory programs and brokerage accounts we offer are separate and distinct, differ in material ways and are governed by different laws and separate contracts. It is important that you carefully read the agreements and disclosures that we provide to you about the products or services we offer. While we strive to ensure the nature of our services is clear in the materials we publish, if at any time you seek clarification on the nature of your accounts or the services you receive, please speak with your Private Wealth Advisor. For more information, please visit our website at www.ubs.com/workingwithus. 2 C:\DPS NEW\Pres\PPT\PresPrint.pot Table of Contents & Editorial Global Outlook 4 Modern Greece: Oedipus Redux Economic and 6 As chaos ensued in Athens amidst last week's deadly riots, the prophecy foretold by the market of a Greek default looked more imminent than ever. The demonstrations in the Market Snapshot shadows of the Acropolis protesting the proposed austerity measures coincided with the credit default swap (CDS) spread for Greek debt reaching a new record high of over 850 basis Monthly Spotlight: 10 points. At the same time, as concerns of contagion broadened, Spain's CDS spread surpassed MLPs its previous high-water mark by rising above 225 basis points. Strategic and 12 Last week's events – and notwithstanding the broader Eurozone rescue package – Tactical Asset demonstrated that the situation in Greece has yet to stabilize. Recent market activity reflects Allocation Models the increasing possibility of an eventual Greek default, and the country's funding costs have spiked, essentially precluding Greece from further tapping global credit markets to fund its ongoing spending needs. In response, Greece, in collaboration with the European Union (E.U.) Tactical Allocation 16 and International Monetary Fund (IMF), has, in fits and starts, worked hard to put together an Summary alternative funding plan. Ironically, these efforts seem to have only increased the potential of Greece defaulting on its debt, as the EUR 110 billion aid package which resulted should only Short- and 18 suffice to cover Greek funding requirements through 2010. Long-Term Investment Ideas The fact that Eurozone participants have now expanded the scope of the rescue effort to all Eurozone countries does little to improve the shaky structural fundamentals that lie at the Important 24 heart of the problem. As intended, the roughly US $1 trillion package of loan, guarantee and liquidity measures has provided immediate relief to recent punishing anti-euro market Information and behavior and thus, at least in the short term, seems to have halted the contagion to the Glossary sovereign debt markets of other Eurozone countries. But the long-term viability of the Eurozone remains very much in question for several reasons. First, there is concern that the net-funders of the program, in particular Germany, may experience an acute political and legal backlash as the details of the program become known. Second, will the austerity measures required of the net-recipients of the program trigger merely tolerable levels of social unrest? Third, will these measures – namely, fiscal austerity coupled with the creation of additional public debt of up to US $1 trillion – stall European GDP recovery? On a macro level, Greece indeed represents a microcosm of fiscal challenges that broadly afflict the Eurozone and the developed world overall. We expect long-term structural problems, like ballooning public debt levels and high unemployment, to continue to disrupt market momentum attributable to cyclical tailwinds. Therefore, on the heels of the recent run- up in risk assets coupled with heightened volatility, we are placing a greater emphasis on shielding rather than creating wealth. In this regard, we are now employing strategies discussed in recent versions of this publication, such as collars and put spreads, to hedge asset values. Anthony Roth Head, Private Wealth Management Portfolio Advisory Group UBS Wealth Management Americas 3 C:\DPS NEW\Pres\PPT\PresPrint.pot PWM Portfolio Advisory Group Global Outlook Monthly Investment Guide Economic Summary Consumer spending, The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter, a slightly lower-than- which represents expected clip. This deceleration of GDP expansion was partially a result of slower export 70% of economic growth and a spike in imports relative to last quarter. On a positive note, consumer spending activity, rose rose 3.6%, more than double the previous quarter's rate, and comprised nearly 80% of 1Q significantly in 1Q GDP growth. Citing high unemployment and low inflation, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy
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