Anderson Kazuo Nakano exus b etw ee n pop ulation n redistrib ution and r eal estat e resid ential prod uction in districts of th e m unicipality of são pa ulo 012 Abstract This article discusses the relationship between changes in the population spatial distribution and the production of high-rise pós- residential buildings in the districts of São Paulo. To develop this discussion, census data from 1991, 2000, and 2010 was combined with data on the production and release of apartment buildings in the period between 1998 and 2008. These databases were the basis of a methodology used to formulate the Rate of Population Absorption by Apartment Buildings (RPAAB). The RPAAB attempts to estimate how much of the Population Growth (PG) of São Paulo districts between 2000 and 2010 was absorbed by the apartments released between 1998 and 2008 by the real estate market. To that end, the Potential Population Increments Promoted by Vertical Residential Real Estate Developments (PPIPVRRED) was estimated based on the number of residents per apartment extracted from the 2010 Census. It was concluded that, in fact, the segment of the real estate market aimed towards the production of apartment buildings heavily conditioned the population spatial distribution in the central districts of São Paulo that underwent the phenomenon of demographic inversion, going from population loss to population gain, during the years of transition from the 1990s to 2000s.Similar phenomenon was not observed in peripheral districts. Keywords Population spatial distribution. Real estate market production. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.11606/issn.2317-2762. v23 i39 p12-35 pós v.23 n.39 • são paulo • june 2016 NEXOS ENTRE REDISTRIBUCIÓN NEXOS ENTRE A REDISTRIBUIÇÃO DE LA POBLACIÓN Y LA POPULACIONAL E A PRODUÇÃO PRODUCCIÓN INMOBILIARIA IMOBILIÁRIA RESIDENCIAL NOS RESIDENCIAL EN LOS DISTRITOS DE DISTRITOS DO MUNICÍPIO DE SÃO PAULO SÃO PAULO Resumen Resumo En este artículo se analiza la relación entre los Este artigo discute a relação entre as mudanças cambios en la distribución espacial de la na distribuição espacial da população e a población y la producción de edificios produção de empreendimentos imobiliários 013 residenciales verticales en los distritos de São residenciais verticais nos distritos do Município pós- Paulo. Para desarrollar este análisis, utilizamos de São Paulo. Para desenvolver essa discussão, los datos del censo de 1991, 2000 y 2010 utilizam-se dados censitários de 1991, 2000 e articulados con datos sobre la producción de 2010 articulados com dados relativos à produção edificios nuevos de apartamentos colocados a la de prédios de apartamentos lançados durante o venta durante el período entre 1998 y 2008. período entre 1998 e 2008. Esses bancos de Estas bases de datos fueron utilizadas para el dados serviram como base para a elaboração de desarrollo de una metodología que permitió la metodologia que permitiu a construção da Taxa construcción de la Tasa de Absorción de la de Absorção Populacional pela Produção Población por la Producción de Apartamentos Imobiliária (TAPPI). A TAPPI procura estimar o (TAPPA). El TAPPA intenta estimar cuánto del quanto do Incremento Populacional (IP) ocorrido Crecimiento de la Población (CP) en los distritos nos distritos paulistanos entre 2000 e 2010 foi de São Paulo ocurrido entre 2000 y 2010 fue absorvido pelos apartamentos lançados pelos absorbido en los apartamentos colocados a la agentes do mercado de incorporação entre 1998 venta entre 1998 y 2008 por agentes del e 2008. Para isso estimou-se o Incremento mercado inmobiliario. Para calcular la TAPPA se Populacional Potencial Promovido pelos calculó el Crecimiento de la Población Potencial Empreendimentos Imobiliários Residenciais que há sido Absorbida por la Producción de Verticais (IPPPEIRV) calculado com base no Apartamentos (CPPAPA), calculado en base al número de moradores por apartamento extraído número de residentes por apartamento extraído do Censo Demográfico de 2010. Concluiu-se que, del Censo de 2010. Se concluyó que, de hecho, de fato, o segmento da produção imobiliária el segmento de la producción de edificios de voltado para a construção de prédios de apartamentos condiciona en gran medida a la apartamentos condicionou fortemente a distribución espacial de la población de São distribuição espacial da população paulistana nos Paulo en los distritos centrales que tenían una distritos centrais que tiveram uma inversão inversión demográfica de perdida para aumentos demográfica de perda para ganhos populacionais de población en la transición de los años 1990 na passagem da década de 1990 para a de a 2000. No se notó el mismo fenómeno en las 2000. Não se percebeu o mesmo fenômeno nos periferias de la ciudad. distritos periféricos. Palabras clave Palavras-chave Distribución espacial de la población. Population spatial distribution. Real estate Producción de edificios de apartamentos. market production. articles • p. 012-035 Introduction In the first decade of the 21 st century, with the Workers Party (PT) at Brazil’s federal government, two important phenomena took place in the municipality of São Paulo. The first phenomenon was of a demographic nature. Areas of the old and expanded city center, which had lost populations in the1980s and 1990s, began to gain new residents in the decade between the years 2000 and 2010, generating a new picture in the spatial distribution of the population of São Paulo. The second phenomenon is related to real estate production. In the first decade of this century, along with spatial redistribution of the population of São Paulo, the so-called real estate boom took place. As Sígolo (2014) demonstrated, the real estate phenomenon was more intense in the second half of the 2000s. The increase of the real estate market was characterized by the rising of real estate prices and the construction of large number of 1 For a more in-depth developments of all kinds, notably vertical residential real estate 014 understanding of the developments, known as apartment buildings. For this expansion to be workings and influences of feasible, according Sígolo (2014) and other researchers 111, there was a need the real estate financing to establish “ a legal and institutional framework that guarantees legal and mechanisms, based on public pós- and private resources, and financial security to private developers, besides a housing finance system operated both by public and endowed with significant permanent resources able to improve the solvency of private financial institutions, the demand ” (SÍGOLO, 2014, p. 59). This researcher refers, among other on the recent heating-up of elements, to: the Brazilian real estate market, see Fix (2011), Rufino - The establishment of mechanisms that are part of the Real Estate (2012), Shimbo (2012), and Royer (2014). Financing System (SFI), such as chattel mortgages (Federal Law 9.514 / 1997), and segregate estate (Federal Law 10.931 / 2004); - The financialization of the real estate production through opening the capital of large real estate developers in the stock market, and the use of market financial instruments such as Real Estate Receivables Certificates (CRI), Real Estate Credit Notes (LCI), Real Estate Credit Bills (CCI), Debentures, Mortgage Notes, Bank Credit Notes (CCB), and Real Estate Investment Funds (FII). These instruments have mainly served to increase the amounts of resources to finance the real estate production; - The increase in the amount of resources for real estate production and acquisition, mainly for Minha Casa Minha Vida Program (PMCMV), raised from the Government Severance Indemnity Fund (FGTS), the Brazilian Savings and Loans System (SBPE), and the Brazilian Government General Budget (OGU). It is not part of the objectives of this article to analyze the political, economic, legal, corporate, and institutional processes that intensified the production of vertical residential real estate developments in the districts of São Paulo that underwent population reversal from loss to gain, in the transition from the 1990s to the 2000s. As already mentioned, these processes were described, analyzed and critically discussed in studies pós v.23 n.39 • são paulo • june 2016 developed by Fix (2011), Rufino (2012), Shimbo (2012), and Royer (2014). This article focuses on the real estate products resulting from these processes, in order to examine the links between those vertical residential real estate developments and the population spatial redistribution in those districts. Thus, the discussion is mainly about the relations between the aforementioned demographic and real estate phenomena. In the first part following this introduction, we will present the changes in the average annual growth rates of populations inhabiting the 96 districts 222 of São Paulo in the passage of the last decade of the 20 th to the first decade of this century. In the turn of the century, four demographic trends can be identified in the districts of São Paulo: - Persistent population loss; - Reversal from population loss to gain; - Persistent population gain; 2 - Reversal from population gain to loss. The 96 districts of the São 015 Paulo municipality were pós- instituted by the Municipal These demographic trends served as criteria for defining groups of districts, Law No. 11,220 / 1992. based on which we have analyzed the production of vertical residential real Making district boundaries estate developments. official enabled the compliance with the limits of In the second part, we give a general overview of the production of vertical census sectors and areas of residential real estate developments according to the groups of districts weighing defined by the which underwent, on the one hand, reversal from population loss to gain, IBGE for carrying out the Demographic Census. Such and on the other, persistent population gain. It is worth mentioning that this compatibility was first real estate production is embedded in a broader context of changes in the implemented in the production of these types of real estate developments in the Greater São execution of the Demographic Census of Paulo. Sígolo (2014) shows, based on database organized by the Brazilian 1991.