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Lincoln Property Co. Office Market Report Q2 2021

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Lincoln Property Co. Office Market Report Q2 2021 OFFICE MARKET REPORT BOSTON / CAMBRIDGE / SUBURBS Q2 2021 OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW Q2 2021 ASKING RATE -vs- DIRECT VACANCY Boston $80.00 15% Averageoston’s Asking Rate office market ended the second quarter of 2021 $70.00 on a more positive note than previous quarters. Though Direct Vacancy (%) $60.00 12% Buncertainty remains and many employers have yet to formalize return to office schedules, the Hub has begun showing $50.00 signs of life with slowly rising occupancy rates and more vibrant $40.00 9% streets. Direct net absorption was positive for the first time $30.00 during the COVID era, totaling 1.1 million square feet across the metro, with all positive absorption recorded in the suburbs. $20.00 6% Holding true to the past several quarters, landlords have $10.00 responded in varied ways with their asking rent. Many landlords have dropped rents, while others have kept them the same as $0.00 3% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 pre-COVID. Some are offering steep concession packages, while others have held constant. Cambridge Sublet space has halted its dramatic rise and has even declined $100.00 20% in Boston and Cambridge. Sublet lease volume, in fact, totals Averagethe same Asking as Rate direct lease volume. With so much sublet space on the market, interested tenants have the freedom to go bargain Direct Vacancy (%) $75.00 15% hunting for space and have typically targeted quality Class A buildings. Credit office plays are starting to emerge in the investment sales market, in contrast to the riskier speculative $50.00 10% opportunities common pre-COVID-19. More than anything, there seems to be more positive sentiment about the future than there has been in the past. Vaccines are rolling out quickly, $25.00 5% economic stimulus is helping to buoy what had been a sagging economy, people are starting to return to the office, all leading $0.00 0% to hopes for strong deal activity in the future. '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 LOOKING FORWARD Suburbs With vaccines now widely available, it is important to $30.00 20% Averagespeculate Asking aboutRate what normalcy will look like post-COVID. Massachusetts ranks near the top in the country in terms Directof vaccine Vacancy (%) administration with over 4.2 million (61.4%) of the population vaccinated. With restaurants, gyms, stores and other entertainment venues essentially operating at pre-COVID $15.00 15% levels, it remains to be seen when return to the office mandates will buckle down. When this point happens, to what extent will remote work continue? When will most companies fully return to the office? How will companies use their offices? These questions will start to become clearer over the coming months. $0.00 10% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Average Asking Rent Direct Vacancy (%) $7.7B 27,100 $3.3B 102 MASSACHUSETTS JOBS ADDED MASSACHUSETTS MASSACHUSETTS VENTURE CAPITAL GREATER BOSTON NIH FUNDING COMPANIES CONDUCTING FUNDING (Q1 2021) (TRAILING 3 MTHS) (2020) COVID-19 RELATED R&D AT A GLANCE Q2 2021 BOSTON VACANCY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY % % % ▲ 8.5 ▼ 4.6 ▲ 14.2 12-MONTH ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION ASKING RATE ▼ (2,411,040) SF 4.4M SF $62.75/SF CAMBRIDGE VACANCY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY % % % ▲ 5.2 ▼ 4.9 ▲ 10.0 12-MONTH ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION ASKING RATE ▲ (237,175) SF 833K SF $84.95/SF SUBURBS ROUTE 128 VACANCY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY % % % ▼ 12.2 ▲ 3.6 ▼ 15.7 12-MONTH ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION ASKING RATE ▲ (652,952) SF ▼ 770K SF $30.02/SF INTERSTATE 495 VACANCY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY % % % ▼ 15.4 ▲ 2.5 ▼ 17.6 12-MONTH ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION ASKING RATE ▲ 130,019 SF ▼ 0 SF $21.71/SF BOSTON OFFICE TRENDS Q2 2021 DEAL HIGHLIGHTS ONE KENMORE SQ Fenway light to quality appears to be a definite trend in 2021 in Boston. The SUBMARKET split between Class A and B rents widened further in the second TENANT Whoop quarter. While rents in Class A only fell slightly, Class B did experience F 121,000 SF SIZE a decline. Total sublet availabilities in Class A dropped by 170,000 square feet while it slightly rose in Class B. Class A’s outperformance should 320 SUMMER ST remain if hybrid work continues. Some tenants currently in Class B may SUBMARKET Seaport find if they reduce their footprint, they can afford the steeper Class A rents. Class A’s superior amenities could be a way to attract employees to TENANT Embark the office instead of working remotely. SIZE 37,800 SF Perhaps the largest story in Q2 was Whoop’s lease at One Kenmore Square. The building, located in the shadows of Boston’s famed Citgo 500 RUTHERFORD AVE sign, is currently under construction by Related Beal. Whoop’s new SUBMARKET Charlestown headquarters will span 121,000 square feet and will house most of its TENANT Mori nearly 500 current employees as well as new hires as the company rapidly grows. The building will be completed next year and is a strong SIZE 35,900 SF affirmation for the legitimacy of the Fenway market beyond baseball. 500 WASHINGTON ST Echoing the sentiment above, WS Development and Fenway Sports Group provided additional detail regarding their large 8 building master SUBMARKET Midtown plan project surrounding Fenway Park and the Kenmore Square area. TENANT Leyton Slated for 2.1 Million square feet of mixed-use density across 5.23 acres, SIZE 29,645 SF the current development program includes 1.7 Million square feet of office & lab space as well 216 residential units and over 200,000 square feet of 1 MARINA PARK DR retail. SUBMARKET Seaport TENANT FNZ SIZE 28,800 SF CLASS A OFFICE AVERAGE ASKING RATE DIRECT VACANCY Average Direct Asking Rate Vacancy Rate $80.00 25.0%Seaport Seaport 20.0%Financial District Financial District $70.00 Back Bay Back Bay 15.0% $60.00 10.0% $50.00 5.0% $40.00 0.0% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Seaport Financial District Back Bay BOSTON OFFICE TRENDS Q2 2021 ONE KENMORE SQUARE arge tenants have mostly waited to make substantial real estate decisions, but some tenants have emerged and made big Lcommitments. After a thorough search of the market and sale of their longtime headquarters in Watertown, architectural firm Sasaki leased the entirety of 110 Chauncy Street. The streets of Boston have become markedly more crowded and vibrant during the past several weeks which is further supported by slowly rising occupancy rates. Additionally, tenant touring momentum is up and there are multiple deals awaiting execution as many anticipate a significant return to office swell following Labor Day. As many have predicted, COVID has caused a dramatic shakeup in the coworking industry. Newmark acquired Knotel out of bankruptcy court. CBRE acquired a 35% stake in Industrious for an estimated value of $600 million. The troubled coworking giant WeWork has closed locations across the country, including locations in Boston such as 1 Milk, 711 Atlantic, and 51 Melcher. While coworking has currently struggled, there could be space for these groups if companies commit to a longer-term hybrid work model. FENWAY REDEVELOPMENT CLASS B OFFICE AVERAGE ASKING RATE DIRECT VACANCY Average Direct Asking Rate Vacancy Rate $80.00 20.0%Seaport Seaport $70.00 Financial District Financial District 15.0% $60.00 Back Bay Back Bay $50.00 10.0% $40.00 5.0% $30.00 $20.00 0.0% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Seaport Financial District Back Bay CAMBRIDGE OFFICE TRENDS Q2 2021 100 CAMBRIDGE DISCOVERY PARK hile there wasn’t a flurry of activity in the Cambridge market, leasing activity did pick up in Cambridge in the first half 2021. Google Wannounced a large expansion in East Cambridge, adding 38,000 square feet of office space at 4 & 5 Cambridge Center plus another 170,000 square feet at 8 Cambridge Center. These expansions come off of its currently under construction 380,000 square foot build-to-suit at 325 Main Street. Google’s continued expansion shows the tech giant’s commitment to Kendall Square and their faith in the return to the office. Also in East Cambridge, Thermo Fisher subleased 23,900 square feet at 105 Broadway. In the West Cambridge submarket, the Smithsonian signed a 59,000 square 105 BROADWAY foot extension of its existing lease at 100 Cambridge Discovery Park. Surrounded by a booming Life Science market, the Alewife area has become another lab cluster with new construction and office to lab conversions solidifying the neighborhood. Future development to the south of the train tracks along Wilson & Fawcett will provide additional supply to the highly constrained market. AVERAGE ASKING RATE DIRECT VACANCY Average Direct Asking Rate Vacancy Rate $100.00 20.0%West West Mid Mid $80.00 15.0% East East $60.00 10.0% $40.00 5.0% $20.00 0.0% '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 West Mid East SUBURBAN OFFICE TRENDS Q2 2021 DEAL HIGHLIGHTS 350 CAMPUS DR SUBMARKET 495 Mass Pike TENANT BJ’s Wholesale SIZE 187,800 SF ctivity picked up in the suburbs this quarter with a handful of larger 900 CHELMSFORD ST leases signed and touring activity showing signs of life.
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