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Regulatory Impact Analyses for the Particulate Matter and Ozone

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Regulatory Impact Analyses for the Particulate Matter and Ozone REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSES FOR THE PARTICULATE MATTER AND OZONE NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS AND PROPOSED REGIONAL HAZE RULE Prepared by Innovative Strategies and Economics Group Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, N.C. July 17, 1997 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS.............................................................................................................. i SELECTED LIST OF ACRONYMS.............................................................................................vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................ES-1 1.0 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW................................................................................1-1 1.1 THE NATIONAL AIR QUALITY CHALLENGE.............................................................1-2 1.2 OVERVIEW OF THE RIA METHODOLOGY..................................................................1-6 1.3 KEY IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE PROPOSAL RIA’S..............................................1-10 1.4 KEY LIMITATIONS.........................................................................................................1-12 1.5 REFERENCES...................................................................................................................1-14 2.0 STATEMENT OF NEED FOR THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS................................2-1 2.1 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................2-1 2.2 STATUTORY AUTHORITY AND LEGISLATIVE REQUIREMENTS FOR PM AND OZONE NAAQS, AND RH RULE........................................................... 2-1 2.3 AUTHORITY FOR THIS RIA........................................................................................... 2-4 2.4 KEY HEALTH AND WELFARE EFFECTS.....................................................................2-6 2.5 NEED FOR REGULATORY ACTION............................................................................2-10 2.6 REFERENCES...................................................................................................................2-13 3.0 NAAQS AND RH ALTERNATIVES ASSESSED............................................................3-1 3.1 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................3-1 3.2 DESCRIPTIONS AND RATIONALES FOR STANDARDS EVALUATED.....................................................................................................................3-2 3.3 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................... 3-8 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 4.0 BASELINE EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY................................................................4-1 4.1 RESULTS IN BRIEF...........................................................................................................4-1 4.2 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................4-2 4.3 ESTIMATION OF 1990 EMISSIONS AND 2010 EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS....................................................................................................................4-3 4.4 ESTIMATION OF BASELINE PM AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS IN 2010...............................................................................................................................4-26 4.5 ESTIMATION OF BASELINE OZONE AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS IN 2010.........................................................................................4-45 4.6 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 4-62 5.0 CONTROL MEASURES.................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................5-1 5.2 UTILITY POINT SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES......................................................5-4 5.3 NON-UTILITY STATIONARY POINT SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES........................................................................................................................5-8 5.4 STATIONARY AREA SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES.............................................5-9 5.5 MOBILE SOURCE CONTROL MEASURES...................................................................5-9 5.6 ANALYTICAL UNCERTAINTIES, LIMITATIONS, AND POTENTIAL BIASES...................................................................................................... 5-16 5.7 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 5-18 6.0 EMISSIONS, AIR QUALITY, AND COST IMPACTS OF PM2.5 ALTERNATIVES............................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 RESULTS IN BRIEF.......................................................................................................... 6-1 6.2 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................6-1 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 6.3 EMISSIONS, AIR QUALITY, AND COST ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY...............................................................................................................6-2 6.4 EMISSION REDUCTION AND AIR QUALITY IMPACT RESULTS..........................6-15 6.5 COST IMPACT RESULTS...............................................................................................6-29 6.6 ESTIMATING PM2.5 IMPACTS AFTER ATTAINMENT OF AN ALTERNATIVE OZONE NAAQS.................................................................................. 6-31 6.7 ANALYTICAL UNCERTAINTIES, LIMITATIONS, AND POTENTIAL BIASES...................................................................................................... 6-33 6.8 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 6-34 7.0 EMISSION REDUCTION AND COST IMPACTS FOR OZONE ALTERNATIVES............................................................................................................... 7-1 7.1 RESULTS IN BRIEF...........................................................................................................7-1 7.2 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................7-1 7.3 EMISSION REDUCTION AND COST IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY.............................................................................................................. 7-2 7.4 EMISSION REDUCTION IMPACT RESULTS................................................................7-8 7.5 COST IMPACT RESULTS.............................................................................................. 7-11 7.6 ESTIMATING OZONE IMPACTS AFTER ATTAINMENT OF AN ALTERNATIVE PM2,5 STANDARD........................................................................ 7-12 7.7 ANALYTICAL LIMITATIONS, UNCERTAINTIES, AND POTENTIAL BIASES...................................................................................................... 7-14 7.8 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 7-15 8.0 VISIBILITY AND COST IMPACT ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL HAZE ALTERNATIVES................................................................................................... 8-1 8.1 RESULTS IN BRIEF.......................................................................................................... 8-1 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 8.2 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................8-2 8.3 COST ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY.............................................................................. 8-3 8.5 VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT RESULTS......................................................................8-12 8.6 COST ANALYSIS RESULTS..........................................................................................8-14 8.7 ANALYTICAL UNCERTAINTIES, LIMITATIONS, AND POTENTIAL BIASES.......................................................................................................8-15 8.8 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 8-16 9.0 DISCUSSION OF FULL ATTAINMENT COSTS............................................................9-1 9.1 RESULTS IN BRIEF.......................................................................................................... 9-1 9.2 INTRODUCTION...............................................................................................................9-2 9.3 METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS.................................................................................. 9-5 9.4 THE ROLE OF NEW AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGY IN NAAQS ATTAINMENT.................................................................................................................9-12 9.5 TRENDS AND FACTORS LEADING TO MORE COST-EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION....................................................................................................... 9-17 9.6 REFERENCES.................................................................................................................. 9-35
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