BIBLIOGRAPHY AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
KLAUS AMMANN, OUT OF WEB OF SCIENCE AND OTHER SOURCES, SUMMARY AND FULL TEXT LINKS
P. AERNI (2011)
Lock-in situations in the global debates on climate change, biotechnology and international trade: Evidence from a global stakeholder survey, draft report, NCCR Trade Regulation Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research, 21, 38
The problem of man-made global climate change is strongly related to land-use practices and the global dependence on fossil fuels. Biotechnology is a platform technology that may help reduce greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture, improve adaptation to climate change, offer new sources of renewable energy and transform the current petrochemical industry into a less energy intensive biological industry. Yet, this potential is hardly ever discussed in the public debate on climate change because it is currently not associated with the term ‘cleantech’ that is used to describe climate-friendly technology. In our study we investigate the perceptions and interests of the main stakeholders involved in the global debate on biotechnology and climate change in order to better understand why ‘cleantech’ is currently not linked to ‘biotech’. For that purpose, we designed a global stakeholder survey which was completed online by 59 respondents representing 40 core institutions in the global sustainability debate. The response rate was above 80%. The survey results reveal that most stakeholders even in the climate change debate regard the potential of biotechnology to be significant. Yet, the results also show that one of the stakeholders that is assessed to be key in the biotechnology as well as the climate change debate and of central importance in the formation of global public opinion is also firmly opposed to the use of modern biotechnology to address climate change problems. The survey findings also indicate that the perception of biotechnology depends to a large extent on the educational background and the institutional affiliation of the respective respondent. Despite the generally favourable view of modern biotechnology as a tool to address climate change problems it is unlikely that it will be considered as being part of ‘cleantech’ any time soon unless influential opponents would change their attitudes. This is however not going to happen since the political and psychological costs to change their minds would be too high. It amounts to a typical lock-in situation. http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/aerni-draft-report-biotech-climate-change-2011.pdf
W. AESCHBACH-HERTIG (2007)
Rebuttal of “On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?” by L. F. Khilyuk and G. V. Chilingar, Environmental Geology, 52, 5, 1007-1009
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00254-006-0519-3 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Aeschback- Rebuttal-Chilinga-2006.pdf
P. ALDHOUS (2008)
COULD NEW GM CROPS PLEASE THE GREENS?, NEW SCIENTIST, 2637, 05. JANUARY 2008, 6
http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Aldhous-GM-crops-NewScientist-2008.pdf
K. AMMANN (1972)
Palynological Studies on Alpine Soil Profiles in Grimsel Pass, Berichte Der Deutschen Botanischen Gesellschaft, 85, 1-4, 11-12
K. AMMANN (1979)
Der Oberaargletscher im 18., 19. und 20. Jahrhundert, Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie,, XII, 2, 253-291
Vegetationsgeschichtliche Untersuchungen im Gletscherhochtal der Oberaar (6 km WSW Grimselpaßhöhe im Aare- massiv) ließen es notwendig erscheinen, auch die Schwankungsgeschichte des Oberaargletschers, soweit sie durch hi-storische Dokumente erfaßbar ist, näher zu beleuchten. Anhand von ungefähr 30 verschiedenen Bild-, Schrift-, Karten-, Relief- und Fotodokumenten konnten bisher drei Vorstoßperioden in Zusammenhang mit der Bildung der Moränenwäl-le 1 - 4 gebracht werden. 1. Maximalvorstoß für das Postglazial: um 1860. Bildung des Walles W l. Zerstören der Wälle Wa und Wb. 2. Rückzugshalt oder Vorstoß um 1890 nach Rückzug um 1880. Bildung der Wälle W 2 und W 3 um 1890. 3. Letzter Vorstoß um 1920, Bildung des Walles W 4. Zusätzliche Details sind der Zusammenstellung in den Abschnitten 3, 4 und 5 und der Abb. 19 zu entnehmen. Aus diesen zeitlichen Einstufungen der Moränenwälle W 1 bis W 4 folgen die Maximalalter der jeweiligen Vorfelder 1 - 3: Vorfeld 1 (innerhalb Moräne W 1): um 110 Jahre (98-115 Jahre). Vorfeld 2 (innerhalb Moränen W2 und W3): 75-90 Jahre. Vorfeld 3 (innerhalb Moräne W 4): 50 Jahre und jünger. In einem Anhang (Abschnitt 7) und auch in der Einleitung werden einige bisherige Ergebnisse und der gesamte Rahmen des vegetationsgeschichtlichen Untersuchungsprogramms kurz vorgestellt: 7.1. Die heutige Vegetation der Oberaar. 7.2. Pollenmorphologie der Grimselflora. 7.3. Oberflächen-Pollenproben und Pollenanalysen zweier Profile. THE VARIATIONS OF THE OBERAAR GLACIER DURING THE 18TH, 19 TH AND 20TH CENTURY SUMMARY In order to study the history of plant communities in the Oberaar Valley (Switzerland, 6 km WSW Grimsel pass) it was necessary to also consider the glacial variation of the nearby Oberaar Glacier. Moraines l- 4 were dated and the maximum age of the subsequent forefields l- 3 estimated, using about 30 documents (photographs, engravings, maps, reliefs, unpublished and published accounts). Glacial variations resulting in moraines seen today were as follows : 1. Maximum advance in postglacial times: About 1860. Produced moraine (“Wall”) W 1, destroyed moraines Wa and Wb. 2. Advance or stationary phase until about 1890. Formation of moraines W2 and W3 around 1890. 3. Last advance about 1920, formation of moraine W 4. For additional information see chapters 3, 4 and 5 and graph fig. 19. From those moraine dates the following maximum ages of the forefields 1- 3 can be derived : Forefield 1 (inside moraine W1): About 110 years (98-115 years). Forefield 2 (inside moraine W2 and 3): 75-90 years. Forefield 3 (inside moraine W 4) : 50 years and younger. In the introduction and the appendix (chapter 7) the structure of the research program is given in rough outlines and some preliminary results are presented: 7.1. Present vegetation of the Oberaar Valley. 7.2. Pollen morphology of the Grimsel flora. 7.3. Modern surface samples and pollen analyses of two profiles.
LES OSCILLATIONS DU GLACIER DE L’OBERAAR PENDANT LES 18 ÉME, 19 ÉME ET 20 ÉME SIÈCLES RÉSUMÉ Pour étudier l’histoire de la végétation alpine de l’Oberaar (6 km 080 a la hauteur du col du Grimsel) il s’est avéré néces- saire de prendre en considération les oscillations du glacier de l’Oberaar. La formation des moraines 1-4 et l’8ge maximum des champs préglaciaires furent détermines au moyen d’environs 30 documents différents (photographies, gravures, cartes, reliefs, rapports publies et non publies). Les variations du glacier formant des moraines visibles aujourd’ hui sont les suivantes: 1. Avancée maximum du postglaciaire: Vers 1860 avec formation de la moraine W 1 (“Wall 1”) et destruction des moraines Wa et Wb. 2. Avancée ou phase stationnaire des années 1890: formation des moraines W2 et W3. 3. Dernière avancée vers 1920: formation de la moraine W 4. On trouvera des renseignements supplémentaires dans les chapitres 3, 4 et 5 et dans la fig. 19. D’après les dates des moraines on peut dériver les âges maximum des champs préglaciaires 1-3: Champ préglaciaire 1 (dans le cirque de la moraine 1) environ 110 ans (98-115 ans). Champ préglaciaire 2 (dans le cirque des moraines 2 et 3) 75-90 ans. Champ préglaciaire 3 (dans le cirque de la moraine 4) 50 ans ou moins. Dans l’introduction et l’appendice (chapitre 7) un aperçu du programme de recherche et quelques résultats préliminaires sont donnes: 7.1. Végétation récente de la Vallée de l’Oberaar. 7.2. Morphologie des pollens de la flore du Grimsel. 7.3. Quelques spectres polliniques d’échantillons de surface et analyse pollinique de deux profils.
http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Oberaar/Ammann-Oberaar-History-1979.pdf
K. AMMANN (1979)
Gletschernahe Vegetation der Oberaar, einst und jetzt, Werden und Vergehen von Pflanzengesellschaften, O. u. T. Wilmans, R., Rinteln, 20.-23. März 1978, Germany, J. CRAMER In der A.R. Gantner Verlag Kommanditgesellschaft, 227-251
In einem längerfristigen Forschungsvorhaben wird der Dynamik gletschernaher Vegetation nachgegangen. Um den säkularen Vegetationswandel pollenanalytisch, in Bodenprofilen besser beurteilen zu können, bot sich das Studium von Sukzessionsvorgängen an, wie sie, durch historische erfassbare Zungenschwankungen verursacht, noch heute im Vorfeld des Oberaargletschers ablaufen. Dazu war es notwendig, das Alter der Moränen und ihrer dazu gehörigen Vorfelder mit Hilfe von historischen Quellen möglichst genau zu erfassen. Das Forschungsvorhaben gliedert sich somit In 3 Hauptteile (zugleich Kapitelübersicht für diesen Beitrag): 1. Historische Schwankungen des Oberaargletschers, das Alter der Moränen und Vorfelder in der Oberaar. 2. Die heutige Vegetation des Gletschervorfeldes und seiner näheren Umgebung, zur Sukzessionsgeschwindigkeit einiger Vegetationstypen. 3. Pollenanalysen an einem gletschernahen Bodenprofil, der säkulare Wandel gletschernaher Vegetation.
http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Oberaar/Ammann-Oberaar-Vegetation-1979.pdf
K. AMMANN (1981)
Die Vegetation der Oberaar in Abhaengigkeit von Klima- und Gletscherschwankungen, Dissertation Universität Bern, Systematisch-Geobotanisches Institut der Universitaet Bern, Bern, University of Bern, 66
http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Oberaar/Ammann-Thesis-Oberaar-1981.pdf AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Oberaar/Oberaar-P2-Pollen-Ammann-1972-1.pdf AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Oberaar/Oberaar-Veg-Karte-1972.PDF
K. AMMANN (1986)
In Gletschernaehe finden sich 6000 Jahre alte Boeden, Biologie des Haslitales, Bergtäler der Schweiz, F. auf der Maur, Basel, Birkhaeuser, 70-73
http://www.ask-force.org/web/Oberaar/Ammann-Haslital-Gletscher-1986.PDF
K. AMMANN (20130201)
Bibliography Agriculture and Climate Change, General Selection, ASK-FORCE, K. Ammann, Neuchatel, AKS-FORCE, 571 http://www.ask-force.org/web/FAO-Climate/Bibliography-Agriculture-Climate-Change-20130201.pdf
K. ANDERSON AND A. BOWS (2011)
Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 20-44
The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community’s commitment to ‘hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius’. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer- term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non- Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non- Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Anderson-Beyond-Dangerous-Climate-Change-2011.pdf
T. ANDREWS, J. M. GREGORY, P. M. FORSTER AND M. J. WEBB (2012)
Cloud Adjustment and its Role in CO2 Radiative Forcing and Climate Sensitivity: A Review, Surveys in Geophysics, 33, 3-4, 619-635
Understanding the role of clouds in climate change remains a considerable challenge. Traditionally, this challenge has been framed in terms of understanding cloud feedback. However, recent work suggests that under increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, clouds not only amplify or dampen climate change through global feedback processes, but also through rapid (days to weeks) tropospheric temperature and land surface adjustments. In this article, we use the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model HadGSM1 to review these recent developments and assess their impact on radiative forcing and equilibrium climate sensitivity. We estimate that cloud adjustment contributes similar to 0.8 K to the 4.4 K equilibrium climate sensitivity of this particular model. We discuss the methods used to evaluate cloud adjustments, highlight the mechanisms and processes involved and identify low level cloudiness as a key cloud type. Looking forward, we discuss the outstanding issues, such as the application to transient forcing scenarios. We suggest that the upcoming CMIP5 multi-model database will allow a comprehensive assessment of the significance of cloud adjustments in fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-general- circulation models for the first time, and that future research should exploit this opportunity to understand cloud adjustments/feedbacks in non-idealised transient climate change scenarios.
N. G. ANDRONOVA, E. V. ROZANOV, F. L. YANG, M. E. SCHLESINGER AND G. L. STENCHIKOV (1999)
Radiative forcing by volcanic aerosols from 1850 to 1994, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 104, D14, 16807-16826
We use our detailed radiative transfer model and the latitude-altitude distributions of zonal mean optical properties for the Pinatubo aerosol to calculate the time evolution of its instantaneous radiative forcing. We represent the zonal mean of this radiative forcing in terms of the zonal mean optical depth of the Pinatubo aerosol, together with the solar insolation, effective emitting temperature, daylight fraction of a day, and the planetary albedo in the absence of the aerosol. We use this representation, together with the volcano optical depths compiled by Sato et al. [1993], to calculate the instantaneous and adjusted radiative forcing by volcanic aerosols from 1850 to 1994.
R. A. Anthes, P. A. Bernhardt, Y. Chen, L. Cucurull, K. F. Dymond, D. Ector, S. B. Healy, S. P. Ho, D. C. Hunt, Y. H. Kuo, H. Liu, K. Manning, C. McCormick, T. K. Meehan, W. J. Randel, C. Rocken, W. S. Schreiner, S. V. Sokolovskiy, S. Syndergaard, D. C. Thompson, K. E. Trenberth, T. K. Wee, N. L. Yen and Z. Zeng (2008)
THE COSMOC/FORMOSAT-3 - MISSION EARLY RESULTS, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 89, 3, 313-+
The radio occultation (RO) technique, which makes use of radio signals transmitted by the global positioning system (GPS) satellites, has emerged as a powerful and relatively inexpensive approach for sounding the global atmosphere with high precision, accuracy, and vertical resolution in all weather and over both land and ocean. On 15 April 2006, the joint Taiwan-U.S. Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC)/Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3, hereafter COSMIC) mission, a constellation of six micro satellites, was launched into a 512-km orbit. After launch the satellites were gradually deployed to their final orbits at 800 km, a process that took about 17 months. During the early weeks of the deployment, the satellites were spaced closely, offering a unique opportunity to verify the high precision of RO measurements. As of September 2007, COSMIC is providing about 2000 RO soundings per day to support the research and operational communities. COSMIC RO data are of better quality than those from the previous missions and penetrate much farther down into the troposphere; 70%-90% of the soundings reach to within 1 km of the surface on a global basis. The data are having a positive impact oil operational global weather forecast models. With the ability to penetrate deep into the lower troposphere using an advanced open-loop tracking technique, the COSMIC RO instruments can observe the structure of the tropical atmospheric boundary layer. The value of RO for climate monitoring and research is demonstrated by the precise and consistent observations between different instruments, platforms, and missions. COSMIC observations are capable of intercalibrating microwave measurements from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) on different satellites. Finally, unique and useful observations of the ionosphere are being obtained using the RO receiver and two other instruments on the COSMIC satellites, the tiny ionosphere photometer (TIP) and the tri-band beacon.
C. ARCHER AND K. CALDEIRA (2009)
GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND POWER, ENERGIES, 2, 2, 307-319
The available wind power resource worldwide at altitudes between 500 and 12,000 m above ground is assessed for the first time. Twenty-eight years of wind data from the reanalyses by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Department of Energy are analyzed and interpolated to study geographical distributions and persistency of winds at all altitudes. Furthermore, intermittency issues and global climate effects of large-scale extraction of energy from high-altitude winds are investigated.
http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/2/2/307 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Archer- Global-Assessment-High-Flying-2009.pdf
M. AUFFHAMMER (2011)
AGRICULTURE: WEATHER DILEMMA FOR AFRICAN MAIZE, NATURE CLIM. CHANGE, 1, 1, 27- 28
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1061 AND http:www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Auffhammer- Wheather-Dilemma-African-Maize-2011.pdf
L. Augustin, C. Barbante, P. R. F. Barnes, J. M. Barnola, M. Bigler, E. Castellano, O. Cattani, J. Chappellaz, D. DahlJensen, B. Delmonte, G. Dreyfus, G. Durand, S. Falourd, H. Fischer, J. Fluckiger, M. E. Hansson, P. Huybrechts, R. Jugie, S. J. Johnsen, J. Jouzel, P. Kaufmann, J. Kipfstuhl, F. Lambert, V. Y. Lipenkov, G. V. C. Littot, A. Longinelli, R. Lorrain, V. Maggi, V. Masson-Delmotte, H. Miller, R. Mulvaney, J. Oerlemans, H. Oerter, G. Orombelli, F. Parrenin, D. A. Peel, J. R. Petit, D. Raynaud, C. Ritz, U. Ruth, J. Schwander, U. Siegenthaler, R. Souchez, B. Stauffer, J. P. Steffensen, B. Stenni, T. F. Stocker, I. E. Tabacco, R. Udisti, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. van den Broeke, J. Weiss, F. Wilhelms, J. G. Winther, E. W. Wolff, M. Zucchelli and E. C. Members (2004)
EIGHT GLACIAL CYCLES FROM AN ANTARCTIC ICE CORE, NATURE, 429, 6992, 623-628
The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago ( Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long - 28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.
M. BALTER (2010)
THE TANGLED ROOTS OF AGRICULTURE, SCIENCE, 327, 5964, 404-406
http://www.sciencemag.org AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Balter-Tangled-Roots- Agriculture-2010.pdf
J. BAMBER (2012)
CLIMATE CHANGE SHRINKING GLACIERS UNDER SCRUTINY, NATURE, 482, 7386, 482-483
C. Barbante, J. M. Barnola, S. Becagli, J. Beer, M. Bigler, C. Boutron, T. Blunier, E. Castellano, O. Cattani, J. Chappellaz, D. Dahl-Jensen, M. Debret, B. Delmonte, D. Dick, S. Falourd, S. Faria, U. Federer, H. Fischer, J. Freitag, A. Frenzel, D. Fritzsche, F. Fundel, P. Gabrielli, V. Gaspari, R. Gersonde, W. Graf, D. Grigoriev, I. Hamann, M. Hansson, G. Hoffmann, M. A. Hutterli, P. Huybrechts, E. Isaksson, S. Johnsen, J. Jouzel, M. Kaczmarska, T. Karlin, P. Kaufmann, S. Kipfstuhl, M. Kohno, F. Lambert, A. Lambrecht, A. Landais, G. Lawer, M. Leuenberger, G. Littot, L. Loulergue, D. Luthi, V. Maggi, F. Marino, V. Masson-Delmotte, H. Meyer, H. Miller, R. Mulvaney, B. Narcisi, J. Oerlemans, H. Oerter, F. Parrenin, J. R. Petit, G. Raisbeck, D. Raynaud, R. Rothlisberger, U. Ruth, O. Rybak, M. Severi, J. Schmitt, J. Schwander, U. Siegenthaler, M. L. Siggaard-Andersen, R. Spahni, J. P. Steffensen, B. Stenni, T. F. Stocker, J. L. Tison, R. Traversi, R. Udisti, F. Valero-Delgado, M. R. van den Broeke, R. S. W. van de Wal, D. Wagenbach, A. Wegner, K. Weiler, F. Wilhelms, J. G. Winther, E. Wolff and E. C. Members (2006)
One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica, Nature, 444, 7116, 195-198
Precise knowledge of the phase relationship between climate changes in the two hemispheres is a key for understanding the Earth’s climate dynamics. For the last glacial period, ice core studies(1,2) have revealed strong coupling of the largest millennial-scale warm events in Antarctica with the longest Dansgaard - Oeschger events in Greenland(3-5) through the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(6-8). It has been unclear, however, whether the shorter Dansgaard - Oeschger events have counterparts in the shorter and less prominent Antarctic temperature variations, and whether these events are linked by the same mechanism. Here we present a glacial climate record derived from an ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, which represents South Atlantic climate at a resolution comparable with the Greenland ice core records. After methane synchronization with an ice core from North Greenland(9), the oxygen isotope record from the Dronning Maud Land ice core shows a one-to- one coupling between all Antarctic warm events and Greenland Dansgaard - Oeschger events by the bipolar seesaw(6). The amplitude of the Antarctic warm events is found to be linearly dependent on the duration of the concurrent stadial in the North, suggesting that they all result from a similar reduction in the meridional overturning circulation.
M. BAZILIAN, B. F. HOBBS, W. BLYTH, I. MACGILL AND M. HOWELLS (2011)
Interactions between energy security and climate change: A focus on developing countries, Energy Policy, 39, 6, 3750-3756
We briefly consider the tensions between climate change and energy security policy imperatives, and highlight some concepts that may bring additional clarity to decision-making at the nexus of the two areas. We focus on developing countries and use the case of the Medupi supercritical coal plant in South Africa. The justification for the plant’s construction stemmed from an Integrated Resource Planning process informed by South Africa’s national utility. Often, as in the case of South Africa, there are tensions not easily captured in quantitative algorithms between, inter alia, a lack of access to electricity by millions of people (and associated welfare losses) and greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation. It is difficult to identify any formal processes that have prioritised climate change considerations over those of energy access. Thus, it becomes imperative to have a clear understanding of the consequences of this reality when considering power system expansion. We find that the processes often employed do not provide an entirely satisfactory precedent for future planning analyses, and the justifications do not adequately reflect the complexity of the decision space. Finally, we highlight some options by which these tools might be enhanced in areas including explicit and formal consideration of risk. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V2W-52SN633-5/2/e633342c6ae8c4f7d0521c8588172539 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/FAO-Climate/Bazilian-Interactions-Energy-Security-2011.pdf
M. A. BENDER, T. R. KNUTSON, R. E. TULEYA, J. J. SIRUTIS, G. A. VECCHI, S. T. GARNER AND I. M. HELD (2010)
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes, Science, 327, 5964, 454-458
Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.
L. BENGTSSON (2006) Geo-Engineering to Confine Climate Change: Is it at all Feasible?, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 229-234
Without Abstract
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9133-3 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Bengtsson-Geoengineering-Feasible-2006.pdf
B. BEREITER, J. SCHWANDER, D. LUTHI AND T. F. STOCKER (2009)
Change in CO2 concentration and O-2/N-2 ratio in ice cores due to molecular diffusion, Geophysical Research Letters, 36, Polar ice cores are unique archives for ancient air. However, a loss of air due to molecular diffusion during storage could affect the composition of the remaining air. We formulate a model with a high spatial resolution (1 mm) calculating the loss of N-2, O-2 and CO2 in pure clathrate ice in order to determine which layers of an ice core are affected by significant changes in the CO2 concentration and the delta(O-2/N-2) ratio for storage durations up to 38 years. The results agree with experimental delta(O-2/N-2) measurements at ice core pieces performed after different storage durations. Additionally, the calculations confirm the importance of the storage temperature and show that the CO2 concentration is less affected than that of delta(O-2/N-2). Furthermore, guidelines for ice core sample preparation are provided in dependence of storage duration and temperature. Citation: Bereiter, B., J. Schwander, D. Luthi, and T. F. Stocker (2009), Change in CO2 concentration and O-2/N-2 ratio in ice cores due to molecular diffusion, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L05703, doi:10.1029/2008GL036737.
R. A. BERNER (1991)
A MODEL FOR ATMOSPHERIC CO2 OVER PHANEROZOIC TIME, American Journal of Science, 291, 4, 339-376
A new model has been constructed for calculating the level of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time which is much simpler mathematically than the BLAG model, but more complex geologically and biologically. Mathematical simplification comes about by following the cycle of carbon only, lumping all carbonate minerals together, combining the ocean and atmosphere into one reservoir, and calculating atmospheric CO2 level as a series of successive ocean-atmosphere steady states. The isotope mass balance model of Garrels and Lerman (1984) is expanded to include the effect of changing area, elevation, and position of the continents as well as the evolution of land plants as they affect weathering rate, and changes in seafloor area generation rate and the relative importance of deep sea versus shallow platform carbonate deposition as they affect global degassing. Atmospheric CO2 level is calculated from a weathering feedback function for silicates which varies with time as vascular land plants arise and evolve. Results suggest that there has been a notable pattern of varying atmospheric CO2 level over the past 570 my with high levels during the Mesozoic and early Paleozoic and low levels during the Permo- Carboniferous and late Cenozoic. Sensitivity analysis shows that, within reasonable limits of the principal governing parameters, this qualitative trend of varying CO2 is relatively insensitive to the actual values chosen for these parameters. Causes of the CO2 variation are multiple, and no single geological or biological process can be called upon to explain all CO2 variation for all time. The calculated trend of CO2 over time agrees well with independent estimations of paleoclimates. Thus, the greenhouse theory of paleoclimate on a long geological time scale is supported by the results of the present study.
R. A. BERNER (1994)
GEOCARB-II - A REVISED MODEL OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 OVER PHANEROZOIC TIME, American Journal of Science, 294, 1, 56-91
Revisions of the parameters in the model of Berner (1991) (henceforth GEOCARB I) for the long term geochemical carbon cycle have been made. Principal changes are: (1) inclusion of the effects of the variation of solar radiation in the feedback functions for continental weathering; (2) distinction between the feedback function for silicate weathering and that for carbonate weathering; (3) exclusion of land area from the expression for Ca-Mg silicate weathering and its replacement by an uplift factor calculated from changes in the strontium isotopic composition of the oceans; (4) consideration in the expression for carbonate weathering of changes in land area underlain by carbonate rocks; (5) use of new data on the rate of seafloor subduction and spreading over the past 150 my; (6) use of new data on the temperature coefficient of silicate dissolution and the relation between river runoff and rates of silicate weathering; (7) application of a new parameterization of global runoff over time; (8) consideration of an alternate model where total crustal carbon (organic C plus carbonate C) is allowed to vary with time. Results indicate that: (1) increase in the solar constant over the past 570 my has brought about a gradual drop in atmospheric CO2 from values much higher during the early Paleozoic than today. Superimposed on this are large fluctuations which in: general are similar to those calculated by the previous model; (2) high CO2 values during the Mesozoic and a decrease in CO2 during the Cenozoic are due largely to low Mesozoic relief and Cenozoic mountain uplift combined with decreasing metamorphic/volcanic degassing of CO2 during the Cenozoic; (3) changes in river runoff and carbonate land area are relatively unimportant, compared to other factors, as major controls on CO2; (4) variable degassing, due to changes in seafloor spreading rate, was not a major control on atmospheric CO2 during the Paleozoic; (5) calculated Phanerozoic CO2 is sensitive to the proportion of carbonate deposition in shallow water versus the deep sea as this affects the probability that the carbonate will be deeply buried and thermally degassed; (6) letting total crustal carbon vary by not tracking the masses of organic C and carbonate C with time has little effect on results. Over Phanerozoic time a major control on global climate has been the CO2 greenhouse effect, and changes in CO2 have been a consequence of a combination of geological, biological, and astronomical factors.
R. A. BERNER (2002)
Examination of hypotheses for the Permo-Triassic boundary extinction by carbon cycle modeling, PNAS, 99, 7, 4172-4177 The biological extinction that occurred at the Permian-Triassic boundary represents the most extensive loss of species of any known event of the past 550 million years. There have been a wide variety of explanations offered for this extinction. In the present paper, a number of the more popular recent hypotheses are evaluated in terms of predictions that they make, or that they imply, concerning the global carbon cycle. For this purpose, a mass balance model is used that calculates atmospheric CO2 and oceanic [delta]13C as a function of time. Hypotheses considered include: (i) the release of massive amounts of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere resulting in mass poisoning; (ii) the release of large amounts of CO2 from volcanic degassing; (iii) the release of methane stored in methane hydrates; (iv) the decomposition and oxidation of dead organisms to CO2 after sudden mass mortality; and (v) the long-term reorganization of the global carbon cycle. The modeling indicates that measured short-term changes in [delta]13C at the boundary are best explained by methane release with mass mortality and volcanic degassing contributing in secondary roles. None of the processes result in excessively high levels of atmospheric CO2 if they occurred on time scales of more than about 1,000 years. The idea of poisoning by high levels of atmospheric CO2 depends on the absence of subthermocline calcium carbonate deposition during the latest Permian. The most far-reaching effect was found to be reorganization of the carbon cycle with major sedimentary burial of organic matter shifting from the land to the sea, resulting in less burial overall, decreased atmospheric O2, and higher atmospheric CO2 for the entire Triassic Period. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/99/7/4172 and http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Evolution/Berner- Hypothesis-PNAS-2002.pdf
R. A. BERNER (2003)
The long-term carbon cycle, fossil fuels and atmospheric composition, Nature, 426, 6964, 323-326
The long-term carbon cycle operates over millions of years and involves the exchange of carbon between rocks and the Earth’s surface. There are many complex feedback pathways between carbon burial, nutrient cycling, atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen, and climate. New calculations of carbon fluxes during the Phanerozoic eon (the past 550 million years) illustrate how the long-term carbon cycle has affected the burial of organic matter and fossil-fuel formation, as well as the evolution of atmospheric composition.
R. A. BERNER AND Z. KOTHAVALA (2001)
Geocarb III: A Revised Model of Atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic Time, American Journal of Science, 301, 2, 182- 204
Revision of the GEOCARB model (Berner, 1991, 1994) for paleolevels of atmospheric CO2, has been made with emphasis on factors affecting CO2 uptake by continental weathering. This includes: (1) new GCM (general circulation model) results for the dependence of global mean surface temperature and runoff on CO2, for both glaciated and non-glaciated periods, coupled with new results for the temperature response to changes in solar radiation; (2) demonstration that values for the weathering-uplift factor fR(t) based on Sr isotopes as was done in GEOCARB II are in general agreement with independent values calculated from the abundance of terrigenous sediments as a measure of global physical erosion rate over Phanerozoic time; (3) more accurate estimates of the timing and the quantitative effects on Ca-Mg silicate weathering of the rise of large vascular plants on the continents during the Devonian; (4) inclusion of the effects of changes in paleogeography alone (constant CO2 and solar radiation) on global mean land surface temperature as it affects the rate of weathering; (5) consideration of the effects of volcanic weathering, both in subduction zones and on the seafloor; (6) use of new data on the δ13C values for Phanerozoic limestones and organic matter; (7) consideration of the relative weather- ing enhancement by gymnosperms versus angiosperms; (8) revision of paleo land area based on more recent data and use of this data, along with GCM-based paleo-runoff results, to calculate global water discharge from the continents over time.Results show a similar overall pattern to those for GEOCARB II: very high CO2 values during the early Paleozoic, a large drop during the Devonian and Carbonifer- ous, high values during the early Mesozoic, and a gradual decrease from about 170 Ma to low values during the Cenozoic. However, the new results exhibit considerably higher CO2 values during the Mesozoic, and their downward trend with time agrees with the independent estimates of Ekart and others (1999). Sensitivity analysis shows that results for paleo-CO2 are especially sensitive to: the effects of CO2 fertilization and temperature on the acceleration of plant-mediated chemical weathering; the quantitative effects of plants on mineral dissolution rate for constant temperature and CO2; the relative roles of angiosperms and gymnosperms in accelerating rock weather- ing; and the response of paleo-temperature to the global climate model used. This emphasizes the need for further study of the role of plants in chemical weathering and the application of GCMs to study of paleo-CO2 and the long term carbon cycle. http://www.ajsonline.org/content/301/2/182.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Berner-GEOCARB-III-Revised-Model-2001.pdf
R. A. BETTS, M. COLLINS, D. L. HEMMING, C. D. JONES, J. A. LOWE AND M. G. SANDERSON (2011)
When could global warming reach 4°C?, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 67-84
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) assessed a range of scenarios of future greenhouse-gas emissions without policies to specifically reduce emissions, and concluded that these would lead to an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.6°C and 6.9°C by the end of the twenty-first century, relative to pre-industrial. While much political attention is focused on the potential for global warming of 2°C relative to pre-industrial, the AR4 projections clearly suggest that much greater levels of warming are possible by the end of the twenty-first century in the absence of mitigation. The centre of the range of AR4- projected global warming was approximately 4°C. The higher end of the projected warming was associated with the higher emissions scenarios and models, which included stronger carbon-cycle feedbacks. The highest emissions scenario considered in the AR4 (scenario A1FI) was not examined with complex general circulation models (GCMs) in the AR4, and similarly the uncertainties in climate-carbon-cycle feedbacks were not included in the main set of GCMs. Consequently, the projections of warming for A1FI and/or with different strengths of carbon-cycle feedbacks are often not included in a wider discussion of the AR4 conclusions. While it is still too early to say whether any particular scenario is being tracked by current emissions, A1FI is considered to be as plausible as other non-mitigation scenarios and cannot be ruled out. (A1FI is a part of the A1 family of scenarios, with ˜FI’ standing for ˜fossil intensive’. This is sometimes erroneously written as A1F1, with number 1 instead of letter I.) This paper presents simulations of climate change with an ensemble of GCMs driven by the A1FI scenario, and also assesses the implications of carbon-cycle feedbacks for the climate-change projections. Using these GCM projections along with simple climate-model projections, including uncertainties in carbon-cycle feedbacks, and also comparing against other model projections from the IPCC, our best estimate is that the A1FI emissions scenario would lead to a warming of 4°C relative to pre-industrial during the 2070s. If carbon-cycle feedbacks are stronger, which appears less likely but still credible, then 4°C warming could be reached by the early 2060s in projections that are consistent with the IPCC’s ˜likely range’. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/67.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Betts-When-Could-Global-Warming-2011.pdf
F. BITTMANN (2007)
Reconstruction of the Allerod vegetation of the Neuwied Basin, western Germany, and its surroundings at 12,900 cal BP, Vegetation History and Archaeobotany, 16, 2-3, 139-156
During the late-glacial eruption of the Laacher See volcano 12,900 B.P. the whole area of the Neuwied Basin, middle Rhine region, was covered by several metres of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) damaging but also partly conserving the former vegetation. This gave the unique opportunity to study plant remains in situ and to estimate the spatial biodiversity of plant taxa within the area investigated at the end of the last glacial as if in a snapshot of 12,900 years ago. Different kinds of plant material can be found because of different preservation conditions namely imprints, charcoal and waterlogged remains. Investigations of this material from several places within the Neuwied Basin and the Brohl valley north of it allowed the reconstruction of the former vegetation at different scales from local to regional. This resulted in a large scale draft of a vegetation map of the studied area also based on the distribution and the stage of soil development at that time. As to whether thermophilous trees were already present is discussed but largely rejected.
P. H. BLARD, J. LAVE, R. PIK, P. WAGNON AND D. BOURLES (2007)
Persistence of full glacial conditions in the central Pacific until 15,000 years ago, Nature, 449, 7162, 591-U10
The magnitude of atmospheric cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum and the timing of the transition into the current interglacial period remain poorly constrained in tropical regions, partly because of a lack of suitable climate records(1). Glacial moraines provide a method of reconstructing past temperatures, but they are relatively rare in the tropics. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric temperatures in the central Pacific during the last deglaciation on the basis of cosmogenic He-3 ages of moraines and numerical modelling of the ice cap on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawaii-the only highland in the central Pacific on which moraines that formed during the last glacial period are preserved(2). Our reconstruction indicates that the Last Glacial Maximum occurred between 19,000 and 16,000 years ago in this region and that temperatures at high elevations were about 7 degrees C lower than today during this interval. Glacial retreat began about 16,000 years ago, but temperatures were still about 6.5 degrees C lower than today until 15,000 years ago. When combined with estimates of sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean(3), our reconstruction indicates that the lapse rate during the Last Glacial Maximum was higher than at present, which is consistent with the proposal that the atmosphere was drier at that time(1,4). Furthermore, the persistence of full glacial conditions until 15,000 years ago is consistent with the relatively late and abrupt transition to warmer temperatures in Greenland(5), indicating that there may have been an atmospheric teleconnection between the central Pacific and North Atlantic regions during the last deglaciation.
G. J. BOER, M. STOWASSER AND K. HAMILTON (2007)
INFERRING CLIMATE SENSITIVITY FROM VOLCANIC EVENTS, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 28, 5, 481-502
The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases.
A. J. BOUCOT AND J. GRAY (2001)
A critique of Phanerozoic climatic models involving changes in the CO2 content of the atmosphere, Earth-Science Reviews, 56, 1-4, 1-159
Critical consideration of varied Phanerozoic climatic models, and comparison of them against Phanerozoic global climatic gradients revealed by a compilation of Cambrian through Miocene climatically sensitive sediments (evaporites, coals, tillites, lateritic soils, bauxites, calcretes, etc.) suggests that the previously postulated climatic models do not satisfactorily account for the geological information: Nor do many climatic conclusions based on botanical data stand up very well when examined critically. Although this account does not deal directly with global biogeographic information, another powerful source of climatic information, we have tried to incorporate such data into our thinking wherever possible, particularly in the earlier Paleozoic. In view of the excellent correlation between CO2 present in Antarctic ice cores, going back some hundreds of thousands of years, and global climatic gradient, one wonders whether or not the commonly postulated Phanerozoic connection between atmospheric CO2 and global climatic gradient is more coincidence than cause and effect. Many models have been proposed that attempt to determine atmospheric composition and global temperature through geological time, particularly for the Phanerozoic or significant portions of it. Many models assume a positive correlation between atmospheric CO2 and surface temperature, thus viewing changes in atmospheric CO2 as playing the critical role in regulating climate/temperature, but none agree on the levels of atmospheric CO2 through time. Prior to the relatively recent interval of time in which atmospheric CO2 is directly measurable, a variety of biological and geological proxies have been proposed to correlate with atmospheric CO2 level or with pCO(2)/temperature. Atmospheric models may be constructed for the Pre-Cenozoic but the difficulties of assessing variables in their construction are many and complex. None of the modelers have gathered enough biological and geological data to impart reliability to the model constructs. Most modelers focus almost exclusively on one or a few variables as proxy to measure atmospheric CO2, nor consider the many other variables involved, nor agree on what these variables are or how to measure them. In this paper, it is the reliability of the present data bases used in these atmospheric models that we wish to consider. We focus most attention on the Berner models, such as GEOCARB I, II and BLAG, because of the basic role they attribute to tracheophytes in regulating atmospheric CO2 and our own interest in pre-tracheophytic land plants and the atmospheric composition of the pre-tracheophytic Paleozoic. We survey the presence of symbiotic mycorrhizae and question the assumption that all tracheophytes are obligately associated with them. Although pre-tracheophytic embryophytes, cyanobacteria, and possibly other organisms preceded tracheophytes on land by millions of years, Berner’s models do not consider a significant role for them in affecting pre-Devonian climate/temperature and atmospheric composition. In effect, Berner assumes that pre- tracheophytic life inhabited a world governed largely by abiotic physical and chemical reactions. We consider uncertainties raised by minimizing possible roles for pre-tracheophytic oxygenic and heterotrophic microorganisms analogous to those speculated to be unique to tracheophytes both with regard to an active role in biodeterioration of rock and soil mineral substrates and in the sequestration of organic carbon. Additionally, Berner does not consider marine productivity, which might have been high in the Precambrian and Early Paleozoic and possibly consequent organic carbon sequestration, even in the possible absence of terrestrial organisms, or even in the absence of a significant preserved biomass of terrestrial and marine organisms. The important roles played by cyanobacteria, for example, are briefly reviewed by Giller and Malmqvist in lakes and rivers as regards both planktonic and benthic taxa, and it is not safe to assume that these organisms were absent or of no potential significance in the pre-embryophytic, i.e. earlier Ordovician and well back into the Precambrian. Berner’s models have met with a large measure of consensus about CO2 balance during the Phanerozoic, about the role played by tracheophytes, and have been used to test or evaluate other data. After reviewing the biological and geological assumptions and estimates on which these Models are based, we conclude that they do not provide reliable information about atmospheric CO2 composition through Phanerozoic time, particularly in the Early Phanerozoic. We compare many atmospheric CO2 models, while considering the numerous proxies on which they are based and conclude that the competing models are inadequate for atmospheric CO estimation. Many possibilities not considered in present models must either be included or eliminated based on reliable evidence. We suggest that assessing Phanerozoic climate/temperature based on the available geological/climatic proxies would appear to provide a more reliable method of estimating variations in CO2 and hence atmospheric CO2:O-2 balance, than most proxy constructs on which atmospheric models are presently based, because of the critical role postulated for atmospheric CO2 in regulating Earth’s surface temperature. We present our own Phanerozoic climate estimate, based on readily available geological/climatic data, for comparison with postulated coeval atmospheric CO2 levels as a test of the postulated correlation. © 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
N. H. A. BOWERMAN, D. J. FRAME, C. HUNTINGFORD, J. A. LOWE AND M. R. ALLEN (2011)
Cumulative carbon emissions, emissions floors and short-term rates of warming: implications for policy, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 45- 66
A number of recent studies have found a strong link between peak human-induced global warming and cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to emissions over shorter periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker. However, cumulative targets appear to conflict with the concept of a ‘floor’ in emissions caused by sectors such as food production. Here, we show that the introduction of emissions floors does not reduce the importance of cumulative emissions, but may make some warming targets unachievable. For pathways that give a most likely warming up to about 4°C, cumulative emissions from pre- industrial times to year 2200 correlate strongly with most likely resultant peak warming regardless of the shape of emissions floors used, providing a more natural long-term policy horizon than 2050 or 2100. The maximum rate of CO2-induced warming, which will affect the feasibility and cost of adapting to climate change, is not determined by cumulative emissions but is tightly aligned with peak rates of emissions. Hence, cumulative carbon emissions to 2200 and peak emission rates could provide a clear and simple framework for CO2 mitigation policy. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/45.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Bowerman-Cumulative-Carbon-Emissions-2011.pdf
M. T. BOYKOFF (2009)
We Speak for the Trees: Media Reporting on the Environment, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 34, 1, 431-457
This review article surveys the role of the media in communicating environmental issues. Media representations—from news to entertainment—provide critical links between formal environmental science and politics and the realities of how people experience and interact with their environments. People abundantly turn to media—such as television, newspapers, magazines, radio, and Internet—to help make sense of the many complexities relating to environmental science and governance that (un)consciously shape our lives. I examine how multiscale factors have shaped media coverage in complex, dynamic, and nonlinear ways. These inquiries are situated in historical context as well as in larger processes of cultural politics and environmental change. Discussions here also touch on how media portrayals influence ongoing public understanding and engagement. Connections between media information and behaviors are not straightforward, as coverage does not determine engagement. Nonetheless, this article explores how media reports influence the spectrum of possibilities for different forms of environmental governance.
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.environ.051308.084254 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Boykoff-We-speak-for-Trees-2008.pdf
L. BRAGAZZA (2006)
A Decade of Plant Species Changes on a Mire in the Italian Alps: Vegetation-Controlled or Climate-Driven Mechanisms?, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 415-429
Abstract Variation of plant species cover on a Sphagnum-dominated mire in the south-eastern Alps of Italy was assessed over a 10-year period in relation to depth to the water table, peat accumulation rate, and climate. Population dynamics of vascular species appeared to be primarily affected by the autogenic process of peat accumulation, which determined the lowering of water-table position at microhabitat scale. Increase of depth to the water table through peat accumulation resulted in increased cover of ericaceous shrubs at previously moister microhabitats. Conversely, graminoid species such as Eriophorum vaginatum, Trichophorum caespitosum, and Scheuchzeria palustris being negatively affected by autogenic peat growth, were forced to shift their niche towards the wetter end of the water-table gradient. Carex limosa and Carex rostrata decreased their cover along the whole gradient in depth to the water table, likely due to multiple processes related to peat accumulation, competition with bryophytes, and a negative feedback due to increased litter deposition. Bryophytes, in particular Sphagnum mosses, appeared more sensitive to climatic conditions, with higher precipitation favouring faster- growing species. Accordingly, Sphagnum fallax and Sphagnum magellanicum increased their cover much more than Sphagnum capillifolium, whereas Polytrichum strictum showed the strongest decrease at sites where S. magellanicum cover increased most.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9034-x AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Bragazza- Decade-Vegetation-Climate-2006.pdf
J. BRAUN-BLANQUET (1957)
Ein Jahrhundert Florenwandel am Piz Linard (3414 m), Bulletin du Jardin botanique de l‘État a Bruxelles, 27, 2, 221-232 http://www.jstor.org/stable/3666959 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Braun-Blanquet- Florenwandel-Linard-1957.pdf
D. BROWN (20130122)
Climate Change Is Real, Yet The US Press Is Not Reporting On The Urgency and Magnitude of the Problem, Widener Law, Harrisburg, Minnesota, USA, What You Need To Know to Understand the Scale of the Climate Change Problem and The Continuing US Press Failure to Report on the Urgency of this Civilization Challenging Threat
http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Brown-Need-Knows-Magnitude-20130122.pdf
R. J. BRULLE AND J. C. JENKINS (2006) SPINNING OUR WAY TO SUSTAINABILITY?, ORGANIZATION & ENVIRONMENT, 19, 1, 82-87
In a widely read article, Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus critiqued the environmental movement for focusing on piecemeal technocratic solutions and failing to articulate a broader political vision, declaring it irrelevant if not already “dead.” To get off the defensive, they argue, it needs to reframe its solutions to global warming and related environmental problems by appealing to core progressive values and to reformulate itself as part of a larger progressive movement. This repackaging, they say, will create a broader coalition with a shared political vision and greater political power There is much to be said for their critique of traditional technocratic environmentalism, much of which we agree with. However we will argue, their focus on rhetorical reform without addressing other aspects of environmental strategy is logically flawed and also undermines their commitment to democratic values.
E. BRYAN, T. T. DERESSA, G. A. GBETIBOUO AND C. RINGLER (2009)
Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints, Environmental Science & Policy, 12, 4, 413-426
Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in Africa. Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities in the region, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative to protect the livelihoods of the poor and to ensure food security. A better understanding of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policies aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector. Using data from a survey of 1800 farm households in South Africa and Ethiopia, this study presents the adaptation strategies used by farmers in both countries and analyzes the factors influencing the decision to adapt. We find that the most common adaptation strategies include: use of different crops or crop varieties, planting trees, soil conservation, changing planting dates, and irrigation. However, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a large percentage of farmers did not make any adjustments to their farming practices. The main barriers to adaptation cited by farmers were lack of access to credit in South Africa and lack of access to land, information, and credit in Ethiopia. A probit model is used to examine the factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt to perceived climate changes. Factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt include wealth, and access to extension, credit, and climate information in Ethiopia; and wealth, government farm support, and access to fertile land and credit in South Africa. Using a pooled dataset, an analysis of the factors affecting the decision to adapt to perceived climate change across both countries reveals that farmers were more likely to adapt if they had access to extension, credit, and land. Food aid, extension services, and information on climate change were found to facilitate adaptation among the poorest farmers. We conclude that policy-makers must create an enabling environment to support adaptation by increasing access to information, credit and markets, and make a particular effort to reach small-scale subsistence farmers, with limited resources to confront climate change.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VP6-4V995Y6-2/2/acc29834a1d072508bae3636d20dcc6d AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Bryan-Adaptation-Climate-Change-2009.pdf
U. BURKHARDT AND B. KARCHER (2011)
GLOBAL RADIATIVE FORCING FROM CONTRAIL CIRRUS, NATURE CLIM. CHANGE, 1, 1, 54-58
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1068 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Burkhardt-Global- Radiative-Contrail-Cirrus-2011.pdf
J. A. BURNEY, S. J. DAVIS AND D. B. LOBELL (2010)
Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, -
As efforts to mitigate climate change increase, there is a need to identify cost-effective ways to avoid emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Agriculture is rightly recognized as a source of considerable emissions, with concomitant opportunities for mitigation. Although future agricultural productivity is critical, as it will shape emissions from conversion of native landscapes to food and biofuel crops, investment in agricultural research is rarely mentioned as a mitigation strategy. Here we estimate the net effect on GHG emissions of historical agricultural intensification between 1961 and 2005. We find that while emissions from factors such as fertilizer production and application have increased, the net effect of higher yields has avoided emissions of up to 161 gigatons of carbon (GtC) (590 GtCOe) since 1961. We estimate that each dollar invested in agricultural yields has resulted in 68 fewer kgC (249 kgCOe) emissions relative to 1961 technology ($14.74/tC, or ~$4/tCOe), avoiding 3.6 GtC (13.1 GtCOe) per year. Our analysis indicates that investment in yield improvements compares favorably with other commonly proposed mitigation strategies. Further yield improvements should therefore be prominent among efforts to reduce future GHG emissions.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/14/0914216107.abstract AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Burney-Greenhouse-Intensification-2010.pdf
L. CAPRA (2006)
Abrupt climatic changes as triggering mechanisms of massive volcanic collapses, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 155, 3-4, 329-333
Abrupt climate change can trigger volcanic collapses, phenomena that cause the destruction of the entire sector of a volcano, including its summit. During the past 30 ka, major volcanic collapses occurred just after main glacial peaks that ended with rapid deglaciation. Glacial debuttressing, load discharge and fluid circulation coupled with the post-glacial increase of humidity and heavy rains can activate the failure of unstable edifices. Furthermore, significant global warming can be responsible for the collapse of ice-capped unstable volcanoes, an unpredictable hazard that in few minutes can bury inhabited areas. © 2006 Published by Elsevier B.V.
R. S. CERVENY, J. LAWRIMORE, R. EDWARDS AND C. LANDSEA (2007)
Extreme weather records - Compilation, adjudication, and publication, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 6, 853-860
R. CHEDDADI AND J. GUIOT (2011)
Comment on: “Solar Minima, Earth’s rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future. The North Atlantic- European case” (Morner, 2010), Global and Planetary Change, 76, 3-4, 220-221
This is a comment on the following publication: Morner, N-A. 2010. Solar Minima, Earth’s rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future. The North Atlantic-European case. Global and Planetary Change, 72: 282-293. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
G. V. CHILINGAR, L. F. KHILYUK AND O. G. SOROKHTIN (2008)
Cooling of atmosphere due to CO2 emission, Energy Sources Part a-Recovery Utilization and Environmental Effects, 30, 1, 1-9
The writers investigated the effect of CO2 emission on the temperature of atmosphere. Computations based on the adiabatic theory of greenhouse effect show that increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere results in cooling rather than warming of the Earth’s atmosphere.
G. V. CHILINGAR, O. G. SOROKHTIN, L. KHILYUK AND M. V. GORFUNKEL (2009)
GREENHOUSE GASES AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT, ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY, 58, 6, 1207- 1213
Conventional theory of global warming states that heating of atmosphere occurs as a result of accumulation of CO2 and CH4 in atmosphere. The writers show that rising concentration of CO2 should result in the cooling of climate. The methane accumulation has no essential effect on the Earth’s climate. Even significant releases of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide into the atmosphere do not change average parameters of the Earth’s heat regime and the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Moreover, CO2 concentration increase in the atmosphere results in rising agricultural productivity and improves the conditions for reforestation. Thus, accumulation of small additional amounts of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere as a result of anthropogenic activities has practically no effect on the Earth’s climate.
R. J. CICERONE (2006)
GEOENGINEERING: ENCOURAGING RESEARCH AND OVERSEEING IMPLEMENTATION, CLIMATIC CHANGE, 77, 3, 221-226
Without Abstract
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9102-x AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Cicerone- Geoengineering-Encouraging-2006.pdf
CONVAY GORDON (2009)
The science of climate change in Africa: impacts and adaptation, Grantham Institute for Climate Change Discussion, Elsenburg, 47
There is still a great deal about climate change in Africa that we do not know.
The African climate is determined at the macro-level by three major global drivers (the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, The El Niño - Southern Oscillation and the West African Monsoon), but how they interact and how they are affected by climate change is poorly understood. What we can be sure of is that global warming - expressed through higher sea and land surface temperatures - is affecting their outcomes, increasing the incidence and severity of the droughts, floods and other extreme weather events that they produce.
We also know:
• In general, the drier subtropical regions will warm more than the moister tropics. • Northern and southern Africa will become much hotter (as much as 4-6ºC) and drier in the summer, with a much greater risk of drought. • Wheat production in the north and maize production in the south will be adversely affected. • In eastern Africa, including the Horn of Africa, and parts of central and western Africa average rainfall will increase. • As a result, vector borne diseases such as malaria and dengue may spread and become more severe. • Sea levels will rise, perhaps by half a metre, in the next fifty years with serious consequences in the Nile Delta and certain parts of West Africa. • But there is much that we don’t know: • The Sahel may get wetter or remain dry. • The flow of the Nile may be greater or less. • The overall fall in agricultural production may be very large or relatively small. • Part of our ignorance comes from a poor understanding of the drivers of the African climate. Part also is due to a severe lack of local weather data, particularly for central Africa. This lack of knowledge makes it very difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy what will happen as a result of climate change at a country, or even sub-regional level in Africa. • This relatively poor state of knowledge has two implications: • 1. We urgently need more research, into the dynamics of the global drivers on the one hand and into the detailed consequences at local levels; • 2. We need to design adaptation measures to cope with high levels of uncertainty. • In general the best assumption is that many regions of Africa will suffer from droughts and floods with greater frequency and intensity. • Adaptation thus depends on developing resilience in the face of uncertainty. The application of the concept of resilience is similar in many respects to the approach that has been long used in the face of natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis: • It begins with anticipation, surveying and forecasting, • moves to developing preventative measures and increasing tolerance, • and subsequently, after the event or events, focuses on recovery and restoration. • Throughout the process is the importance of learning.
In general the more time and resources put into the earlier stages of this process, the better.
Most of the population of Africa already experiences a variety of stresses and shocks on a regular basis. In this sense, the impacts of climate change are nothing new. But the scale and, in some situations, the nature of the impacts will change dramatically as the pace of climate change increases. Greater investment in adaptation is needed now to respond to the changes that are already occurring.
To deliver such a package there needs to be more in research into, and support for, hazard mapping and long range forecasts and into the funding of research into drought and flood resistance and tolerance. Resilience is important at both the national and local levels, involving not only technologies, but also appropriate economic policies and institutional arrangements. It is the poor who will be most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. To some extent the process of development itself will help them to adapt. If people are better fed and in better health, and have access to education, jobs and markets they will have the capacity to be more resilient. Traditionally poor people have developed various forms of resilient livelihood to cope with a range of natural and man made stresses and shocks. But these may be inadequate in the future or may have been lost in the development process. The urgent need is for governments, NGOs and the private sector to work together to build up the resilience of the poor of Africa. http://www.elsenburg.com/trd/globalwarm/downloads/science.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Convay-Science-Climate-Change-Africa-2008.pdf
A. Costello, M. Abbas, A. Allen, S. Ball, S. Bell, R. Bellamy, S. Friel, N. Groce, A. Johnson, M. Kett, M. Lee, C. Levy, M. Maslin, D. McCoy, B. McGuire, H. Montgomery, D. Napier, C. Pagel, J. Patel, J. A. P. de Oliveira, N. Redclift, H. Rees, D. Rogger, J. Scott, J. Stephenson, J. Twigg, J. Wolff and C. Patterson (2009) Managing the health effects of climate change: Lancet and University College London Institute for Global Health Commission, The Lancet, 373, 9676, 1693-1733 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673609609351 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Costelllo-Managing-Health-Effects-Global-2009.pdf
A. COSTELLO, M. MASLIN AND H. MONTGOMERY (2009)
Climate change is not the biggest global health threat - Authors’ reply, The Lancet, 374, 9694, 974-975 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673609616561 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Costello-Reply-to-Goklany-2009.pdf
R. COURTLAND (2008)
POLAR BEAR NUMBERS SET TO FALL, NATURE, 453, 7194, 432-433
The polar bear, Ursus maritimus has been declared a threatened species. The continuing retreat in Arctic sea ice due to global warming is connected with large potential reductions in the polar- bear population. Polar bears range across a variety of nations, each with its own conservation approaches, and a variety of habitats, each of which will be affected differently by climate change. Factors other than global warming compound stress on the bears, including the accumulation in fat of polychlorinated biphenyls and other pollutants that lower reproductive capacity and weaken the immune system. Bears that spend the majority of their time on ice may have to migrate long distances to maintain their lifestyle, an additional stress if food is scarce. But polar bear populations in the Canadian archipelago may be fairly stable in the next few decades, as projections suggest that summer sea ice there will be more persistent. Polar bear numbers set to fall fattening up on nesting ringed seals. West of Hudson Bay, young bears are less likely to survive after earlier sea-ice break-ups. Some bear populations may be able to adapt by spending more time on land, but much depends on how quickly the Arctic ice changes. Polar bears are likely to remain at the top of the international agenda for the foreseeable future and its management options are being discussed.
P. S. CURTIS AND X. WANG (1998)
A Meta-Analysis of Elevated COâ” Effects on Woody Plant Mass, Form, and Physiology, Oecologia, 113, 3, 299-313
Quantitative integration of the literature on the effect of elevated COâ” on woody plants is important to aid our understanding of forest health in coming decades and to better predict terrestrial feedbacks on the global carbon cycle. We used meta-analytic methods to summarize and interpret more than 500 reports of effects of elevated COâ” on woody plant biomass accumulation and partitioning, gas exchange, and leaf nitrogen and starch content. The COâ” effect size metric we used was the log-transformed ratio of elevated compared to ambient response means weighted by the inverse of the variance of the log ratio. Variation in effect size among studies was partitioned according to the presence of interacting stress factors, length of COâ” exposure, functional group status, pot size, and type of COâ” exposure facility. Both total biomass ( $W_{\text{T}}$ ) and net COâ” assimilation (A) increased significantly at about twice ambient COâ”, regardless of growth conditions. Low soil nutrient availability reduced the COâ” stimulation of $W_{\text{T}}$ by half, from + 31% under optimal conditions to + 16%, while low light increased the response to + 52%. We found no significant shifts in biomass allocation under high COâ”. Interacting stress factors had no effect on the magnitude of responses of A to COâ”, although plants grown in growth chambers had significantly lower responses (+19%) than those grown in greenhouses or in open-top chambers (+ 54%). We found no consistent evidence for photosynthetic acclimation to COâ” enrichment except in trees grown in pots <0.5 1 (-36%) and no significant COâ” effect on stomatal conductance. Both leaf dark respiration and leaf nitrogen were significantly reduced under elevated COâ” (-18% and -16% respectively, data expressed on a leaf mass basis), while leaf starch content increased significantly except in low nutrient grown gymnosperms. Our results provide robust, statistically defensible estimates of elevated COâ” effect sizes against which new results may be compared or for use in forest and climate model parameterization. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4221855 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Curtis-Meta-Analysis- Elevated-CO2-Effects-2008.pdf
A. DE GROSBOIS, E. MURPHY, P. LAMOREAUX, J. MATSCHULLAT AND A. YAHYA (2008)
INTERNATIONAL VIEWPOINT AND NEWS, ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY, 54, 2, 431-442 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00254-007-1174-z AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/deGrosbois- International-Viewpoints-2008.pdf
S. J. DEL GROSSO (2010)
CLIMATE CHANGE: GRAZING AND NITROUS OXIDE, NATURE, 464, 7290, 843-844 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/464843a AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/delGrosso-Grazing- Nitrous-2010.pdf
D. DEMERITT (2006)
Science studies, climate change and the prospects for constructivist critique, Economy and Society, 35, 3, 453-479
Starting from the debates over the ‘reality’ of global warming and the politics of science studies, I seek to clarify what is at stake politically in constructivist understandings of science and nature. These two separate but related debates point to the centrality of modern science in political discussions of the environment and to the difficulties, simultaneously technical and political, in warranting political action in the face of inevitably partial and uncertain scientific knowledge. The case of climate change then provides an experimental test case with which to explore the various responses to these challenges offered by Ulrich Beck’s reflexive modernization, the normative theory of expertise advanced by Harry Collins and Robert Evans, and Bruno Latour’s utopian vision for decision- making by the ‘collective’ in which traditional epistemic and institutional distinctions between science and politics are entirely superseded.
DISPENSA JACLYN MARISA AND ROBERT J. BRULLE (2003)
Media’s social construction of environmental issues: focus on global warming – a comparative study, International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, a comparative study, 23, 10, 74 - 105
Global warming has been a well recognized environmental issue in the United States for the past ten years, even though scientists had identified it as a potential problem years before in 1896. We find debate about the issue in the United States media coverage while controversy among the majority of scientists is rare. The role that media plays in constructing the norms and ideas in society is researched to understand how they socially construct global warming and other environmental issues. To identify if the U.S. Media presents a biased view of global warming, the following are discussed (1) the theoretical perspective of media and the environment; (2) scientific overview and history of global warming; (3) media coverage of global warming, and (4) research findings from the content analysis of three countries’ newspaper articles and two international scientific journals produced in 2000 with comparison of these countries economies, industries, and environments. In conclusion, our research demonstrates that the U.S. with differing industries, predominantly dominated by the fossil fuel industry, in comparison to New Zealand and Finland has a significant impact on the media coverage of global warming. The U.S’s media states that global warming is controversial and theoretical, yet the other two countries portray the story that is commonly found in the international scientific journals. Therefore, media, acting as one driving force, is providing citizens with piecemeal information that is necessary to assess the social, environmental and political conditions of the country and world.
http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Dispensa-Medias-Social-Construction-Issues-2003.pdf
A. DOSIO AND P. PARUOLO (2011)
Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 116, A statistical bias correction technique is applied to a set of high-resolution climate change simulations for Europe from 11 state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the project ENSEMBLES. Modeled and observed daily values of mean, minimum and maximum temperature and total precipitation are used to construct transfer functions for the period 1961-1990, which are then applied to the decade 1991-2000, where the results are evaluated. By using a large ensembles of model runs and a long construction period, we take into account both intermodel variability and longer (e.g., decadal) natural climate variability. Results show that the technique performs successfully for all variables over large part of the European continent, for all seasons. In particular, the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of both temperature and precipitation are greatly improved, especially in the tails, i.e., increasing the capability of reproducing extreme events. When the statistics of bias-corrected results are ensemble averaged, the result is very close to the observed ones. The bias correction technique is also able to improve statistics that depend strongly on the temporal sequence of the original field, such as the number of consecutive dry days and the total amount of precipitation in consecutive heavy precipitation episodes, which are quantities that may have a large influence on, e.g., hydrological or crop impact models. Bias-corrected projections of RCMs are hence found to be potentially useful for the assessment of impacts of climate change over Europe.
G. M. Durner, D. C. Douglas, R. M. Nielson, S. C. Amstrup, T. L. McDonald, I. Stirling, M. Mauritzen, E. W. Born, O. Wiig, E. DeWeaver, M. C. Serreze, S. E. Belikov, M. M. Holland, J. Maslanik, J. Aars, D. A. Bailey and A. E. Derocher (2009)
Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models, Ecological Monographs, 79, 1, 25-58
Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellite-collared polar bears and environmental data (e. g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km(2) in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km(2) in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km(2) in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km(2) in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic effects may become important as polar bears make long-distance annual migrations from traditional winter ranges to remnant high-latitude summer sea ice. These impacts will likely affect specific sex and age groups differently and may ultimately preclude bears from seasonally returning to their traditional ranges.
M. G. DYCK, W. SOON, R. K. BAYDACK, D. R. LEGATES, S. BALIUNAS, T. F. BALL AND L. O. HANCOCK (2007)
Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor?, Ecological Complexity, 4, 3, 73-84
Long-term warming of late spring (April-June) air temperatures has been proposed by Stirling et al. [Stirling, L, Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, J., 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climatic change. Arctic 52, 294306] as the “ultimate” factor causing earlier sea-ice break-up around western Hudson Bay (WH) that has, in turn, led to the poorer physical and reproductive characteristics of polar bears occupying this region. Derocher et al. [Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Stirling, I., 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr. Comp. Biol. 44, 163-176] expanded the discussion to the whole circumpolar Arctic and concluded that polar bears will unlikely survive as a species should the computer-predicted scenarios for total disappearance of sea-ice in the Arctic come true. We found that spring air temperatures around the Hudson Bay basin for the past 70 years (1932-2002) show no significant warming trend and are more likely identified with the large-amplitude, natural climatic variability that is characteristic of the Arctic. Any role of external forcing by anthropogenic greenhouse gases remains difficult to identify. We argue, therefore, that the extrapolation of polar bear disappearance is highly premature. Climate models are simply not skilful for the projection of regional sea-ice changes in Hudson Bay or the whole Arctic. Alternative factors, such as increased human-bear interaction, must be taken into account in a more realistic study and explanation of the population ecology of WH polar bears. Both scientific papers and public discussion that continue to fail to recognize the inherent complexity in the adaptive interaction of polar bears with both human and nature will not likely offer any useful, science-based, preservation and management strategies for the species. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
M. G. DYCK, W. SOON, R. K. BAYDACK, D. R. LEGATES, S. BALIUNAS, T. F. BALL AND L. O. HANCOCK (2008)
Reply to response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay by Stirling et al. (2008), Ecological Complexity, 5, 4, 289-302
We address the three main issues raised by Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Derocher, A.E., Gough, W.A., Rode, K., in press. Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. Ecol. Complexity]: (1) evidence of the role of climate warming in affecting the western Hudson Bay polar bear population, (2) responses to suggested importance of human-polar bear interactions, and (3) limitations on polar bear adaptation to projected climate change. We assert that our original paper did not provide any “alternative explanations [that] are largely unsupported by the data” or misrepresent the original claims by Stirling et al. [Stirling, L, Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, I., 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change. Arctic 52, 2943061, Derocher et al. [Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Stirling, I., 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr. Comp. Biol. 44, 163-176], and other peer-approved papers authored by Stirling and colleagues. In sharp contrast, we show that the conclusion of Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Derocher, A.E., Gough, W.A., Rode, K., in press. Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. Ecol. Complexity] - suggesting warming temperatures (and other related climatic changes) are the predominant determinant of polar bear population status, not only in western Hudson (WH) Bay but also for populations elsewhere in the Arctic - is unsupportable by the current scientific evidence. The commentary by Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Derocher, A.E., Gough, W.A., Rode, K., in press. Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. Ecol. Complexity] is an example of uni-dimensional, or reductionist thinking, which is not useful when assessing effects of climate change on complex ecosystems. Polar bears of WH are exposed to a multitude of environmental perturbations including human interference and factors (e.g., unknown seal population size, possible competition with polar bears from other populations) such that isolation of any single variable as the certain root cause (i.e., climate change in the form of warming spring air temperatures), without recognizing confounding interactions, is imprudent, unjustified and of questionable scientific utility. Dyck et al. [Dyck, M.G., Soon, W., Baydack, R.K., Legates, D.R., Baliunas, S., Ball, T.F., Hancock, L.O., 2007. Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? Ecol. Complexity, 4, 73-84. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002] agree that some polar bear populations may be negatively impacted by future environmental changes; but an oversimplification of the complex ecosystem interactions (of which humans are a part) may not be beneficial in studying external effects on polar bears. Science evolves through questioning and proposing hypotheses that can be critically tested, in the absence of which, as Krebs and Borteaux [Krebs, C.J., Berteaux, D., 2006. Problems and pitfalls in relating climate variability to population dynamics. Clim. Res. 32, 143-149] observe, “we will be little more than storytellers.” Published by Elsevier B.V.
Ceiridwen J. Edwards, Marc A. Suchard, P. Lemey, John J. Welch, I. Barnes, Tara L. Fulton, R. Barnett, Tamsin C. O’Connell, P. Coxon, N. Monaghan, Cristina E. Valdiosera, Eline D. Lorenzen, E. Willerslev, Gennady F. Baryshnikov, A. Rambaut, Mark G. Thomas, Daniel G. Bradley and B. Shapiro (2011)
Ancient Hybridization and an Irish Origin for the Modern Polar Bear Matriline, Current Biology, In Press, Corrected Proof, SummaryBackground Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are among those species most susceptible to the rapidly changing arctic climate, and their survival is of global concern. Despite this, little is known about polar bear species history. Future conservation strategies would significantly benefit from an understanding of basic evolutionary information, such as the timing and conditions of their initial divergence from brown bears (U. arctos) or their response to previous environmental change.Results We used a spatially explicit phylogeographic model to estimate the dynamics of 242 brown bear and polar bear matrilines sampled throughout the last 120,000 years and across their present and past geographic ranges. Our results show that the present distribution of these matrilines was shaped by a combination of regional stability and rapid, long-distance dispersal from ice-age refugia. In addition, hybridization between polar bears and brown bears may have occurred multiple times throughout the Late Pleistocene.Conclusions The reconstructed matrilineal history of brown and polar bears has two striking features. First, it is punctuated by dramatic and discrete climate-driven dispersal events. Second, opportunistic mating between these two species as their ranges overlapped has left a strong genetic imprint. In particular, a likely genetic exchange with extinct Irish brown bears forms the origin of the modern polar bear matriline. This suggests that interspecific hybridization not only may be more common than previously considered but may be a mechanism by which species deal with marginal habitats during periods of environmental deterioration. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982211006452 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Edwards-Polar-Bear-Hybrids-2011.pdf
P. R. EHRLICH (2010)
The MAHB, the Culture Gap, and Some Really Inconvenient Truths, PLoS Biol, 8, 4, e1000330
Humanity’s failure to take adequate actions to stem a likely environmental collapse calls for extraordinary measures to understand and alter human behavior, argues Paul Ehrlich. His Millennium Assessment of Human Behavior (MAHB) aims to chart the path to a sustainable future.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1000330 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Erhlich- MAHB-Really-Inconvenient-2010.pdfD. D. EKART, T. E. CERLING, I. P. MONTANEZ AND N. J. TABOR (1999)
A 400 million year carbon isotope record of pedogenic carbonate: Implications for paleoatmospheric carbon dioxide, American Journal of Science, 299, 10, 805-827
A 400 my record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels has been estimated by applying a CO2 paleobarometer to a database of 758 analyses of paleosol (fossil soil) carbonates. This database is a compilation of new data and previously published values from the literature. Many new analyses of Mesozoic paleosols are reported, an era poorly represented in the literature. Results indicate that large fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have occurred over the study interval, ranging from the current level up to ten times the current level. Declining pCO(2) levels through the middle Paleozoic culminate in low levels in the Early Permian. An abrupt increase in pCO(2) in the Early Permian is followed by a decrease prior to the Permo-Triassic boundary. Carbon dioxide levels increase through the Triassic to approx 3000 ppmV, a level maintained through the Jurassic period. Levels lowered through the Cretaceous, dropping to less than 1000 ppmV prior to the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary Relatively low levels persisted throughout the Cenozoic, with some evidence of higher levels in the Eocene and Oligocene.
J. Elsig, J. Schmitt, D. Leuenberger, R. Schneider, M. Eyer, M. Leuenberger, F. Joos, H. Fischer and T. F. Stocker (2009)
Stable isotope constraints on Holocene carbon cycle changes from an Antarctic ice core, Nature, 461, 7263, 507- 510
Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations based on Antarctic ice cores(1,2) reveal significant changes during the Holocene epoch, but the processes responsible for these changes in CO2 concentrations have not been unambiguously identified. Distinct characteristics in the carbon isotope signatures of the major carbon reservoirs (ocean, biosphere, sediments and atmosphere) constrain variations in the CO2 fluxes between those reservoirs. Here we present a highly resolved atmospheric delta C-13 record for the past 11,000 years from measurements on atmospheric CO2 trapped in an Antarctic ice core. From mass-balance inverse model calculations(3,4) performed with a simplified carbon cycle model, we show that the decrease in atmospheric CO2 of about 5 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.). The increase in delta C-13 of about 0.25 parts per thousand during the early Holocene is most probably the result of a combination of carbon uptake of about 290 gigatonnes of carbon by the land biosphere and carbon release from the ocean in response to carbonate compensation of the terrestrial uptake during the termination of the last ice age. The 20 p.p.m.v. increase of atmospheric CO2 and the small decrease in delta C-13 of about 0.05 parts per thousand during the later Holocene can mostly be explained by contributions from carbonate compensation of earlier land-biosphere uptake and coral reef formation, with only a minor contribution from a small decrease of the land-biosphere carbon inventory. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08393 AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/suppinfo/nature08393_S1.html AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Elsig-Stocker-Stable-Isotope-constraints-2009.pdf
J. T. EMMERT, J. L. LEAN AND J. M. PICONE (2010)
Record-low thermospheric density during the 2008 solar minimum, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, 12, L12102
We use global-average thermospheric total mass density, derived from the drag effect on the orbits of many space objects, to study the behavior of the thermosphere during the prolonged minimum in solar activity between cycles 23 and 24. During 2007–2009 thermospheric densities at a fiducial altitude of 400 km were the lowest observed in the 43-year database, and were anomalously low, by 10–30%, compared with climatologically expected levels. The density anomalies appear to have commenced before 2006, well before the cycle 23/24 minimum, and are larger than expected from enhanced thermospheric cooling by increasing concentrations of CO2. The height dependence of the mass density anomalies suggests that they are attributable to a combination of lower-than-expected exospheric temperature (−14 K) and reductions in the number density of atomic oxygen (−12%) and other species (−3%) near the base of the diffusive portion of the thermosphere. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043671 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Emmert-Record- low-Thermospheric-Density-2010.pdf
K. C. ENGVILD (2003)
A review of the risks of sudden global cooling and its effects on agriculture, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 115, 3-4, 129-139
Global warming has received much attention, but evidence from the past shows that sudden global cooling has occurred with severe failures of agriculture. Extrapolating from dendrochronological evidence, one can predict the following: Approximately once per century there will be a drop of about 0.5-1 degreesC in mean temperature worldwide. In some of these cases, perhaps once every 200 or 300 years this might endanger agricultural production globally. About once per millenium there will be periods of 5-20 years where the temperature is seriously below normal. The last major one year temperature drop was 1816, the year without a summer, probably caused by the cooling effect of the eruption of the volcano Tambora, Indonesia. The last decade-long cooling event was A.D. 536-545 where dust veil, cold, famine, and plague was recorded in Byzantium and China. Very large volcanic eruptions or a comet/asteroid impact have been suggested as cause. Nuclear winter after large-scale nuclear war is a well-known scenario, but climate instabilities may also be caused by changes in the sun, Milankovitch cycles, changes in ocean currents, volcanoes, asteroid impacts, dusting from comets passing close, methane released from its hydrate, and pollution, The risks associated with sudden global cooling are rather smaller than the risks of global warming, but they are real. A dangerous sudden cooling event will happen sooner or later. Ability to change to cold-resistant crops rapidly in large parts of the world may be necessary to avoid major famines. With some important exceptions, fundamental research in abrupt climate change is in place, but agricultural or economic research on volcanic/comet-dusting/nuclear winters and their mitigation is lacking. © 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
S. A. Eriksen, Paulina; Bahinipati, Chandra Sekhar; Martins, Rafael D’Almeida; Molefe, John Isaac; Nhemachena, Charles; O’brien, Karen; Olorunfemi, Felix; Park, Jacob; Sygna, Linda; Ulsrud, Kirsten (2011)
When not every response to climate change is a good one: Identifying principles for sustainable adaptation, Climate and Development, 3, 7-20
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/earthscan/cdev/2011/00000003/00000001/art00002 AND http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/cdev.2010.0060 AND http:www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Eriksen-Wen-not- every-response-2011.pdf
S. B. ERIKSEN, KATRINA (2011)
SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, 3, 3-6
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/earthscan/cdev/2011/00000003/00000001/art00001 AND http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/cdev.2010.0064 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Eriksen- Sustainable-Adaptation-2011.pdf
I. ERRASTI, A. EZCURRA, J. SAENZ AND G. IBARRA-BERASTEGI (2011)
VALIDATION OF IPCC AR4 MODELS OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA, THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 103, 1-2, 61-79
This paper reports analysis of the ability of 24 coupled global climate models that were used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to simulate the current monthly seasonal cycle of sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula in the last two decades of the twentieth century. The period investigated runs from 1979 to 1998. In order to assess the performance of the models, averaged seasonal cycles and probability density functions (PDFs) calculated from model simulations are compared with the corresponding seasonal cycles, whilst PDFs are also obtained using the data from the ERA40 reanalysis and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. We found that simulated PDFs generally provided a better fit to actual PDFs than seasonal cycles do. This conclusion indicates that when evaluating model performance, the climate variability as measured by means of PDFs is not the only climatic element that should be tested. Regarding the comparison based on the seasonal cycle, results also show that the root mean square skill score is more useful than the r skill score. To rank the AR4 models, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and precipitation variables were selected and a group of five AR4 models were identified as the models which best reproduce current climate in the area: MIROC3.2-HIRES, MPI-ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.1, BCCR-BCM2.0 and UKMO-HADGEM1. The rank obtained should not be understood in a hierarchical manner because there is a certain degree of internal variability in the model ensembles. Finally, it should be noted that these results are in good agreement with other classifications found in the scientific literature.
P. FALKOWSKI (2012)
OCEAN SCIENCE: THE POWER OF PLANKTON, NATURE, 483, 7387, S17-S20
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/483S17a AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Falkowski-Power-of- Plankton-2012.pdf
N. V. Fedoroff, D. S. Battisti, R. N. Beachy, P. J. M. Cooper, D. A. Fischhoff, C. N. Hodges, V. C. Knauf, D. Lobell, B. J. Mazur, D. Molden, M. P. Reynolds, P. C. Ronald, M. W. Rosegrant, P. A. Sanchez, A. Vonshak and J. K. Zhu (2010)
RADICALLY RETHINKING AGRICULTURE FOR THE 21ST CENTURY, SCIENCE, 327, 5967, 833- 834
Population growth, arable land and fresh water limits, and climate change have profound implications for the ability of agriculture to meet this century’s demands for food, feed, fiber, and fuel while reducing the environmental impact of their production. Success depends on the acceptance and use of contemporary molecular techniques, as well as the increasing development of farming systems that use saline water and integrate nutrient flows.
FERRY NATALIE AND GATEHOUSE A.M.R. (2010) Transgenic crop plants for resistance to biotic stress, Transgenic Crop Plants: Volume 2: Utilization and Biosafety, C. M. Chittaranjan Kole, Albert G. Abbott, Timothy C. Hall, Springer; 1st Edition. edition (February 3, 2010), 2, 65
With a projected increase in world population to 10 billion over the next four decades, an immediate priority for agriculture is to achieve increased crop yields in a sustainable and cost effective way. The commercialisation of transgenic crops in the mid 1990s has gone some way to meet these needs. Since their introduction there has been a year on year increase in take up. By 2006 approximately 10.3 million farmers in 22 countries grew genetically modified (GM) crops. In 2007, the biotech crop area grew by 12%, equivalent to 12.3 million hectares, to reach 114.3 million hectares, the second highest rise in the past five years, with herbicide tolerant crops and insect resistant crops representing 64% and 18 % respectively; crops expressing dual traits also accounted for some 18%. Despite its contribution to agricultural production, this technology remains one of the most controversial agricultural issues of current times.
Many consumer and environmental lobby groups believe that GM crops will bring very little benefit to the growers and the general public and that they will have a deleterious effect on the environment. This is at a time when food and fuel are competing for land and climate change threatens to compromise current resources. It is, and will continue to be, a priority for agriculture to produce more crops on less land. The minimization of losses to biotic stress would go some way to optimizing the yield on land under cultivation. Currently we may be at the limit of the existing genetic resources available in our major crops. Thus new genetic resources must be found and only new technologies will enable this. Chapter 1 thus addresses the role of transgenic crops with resistance to biotic stress, and discusses both commercialised technologies and those currently being developed: Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops dominate today’s commercial market for insect-resistant (IR) transgenic crops and have made a significant beneficial impact on global agriculture, not least in terms of pest reduction and improved quality. For Bt expressing cotton and maize alone, the current market share is about $3.26 billion.
However, despite their undoubted success not all pests are susceptible to Bt Cry toxins, for example no such toxins have been identified for effective control of homopteran pests (major vectors of plant diseases). Furthermore, there are concerns that susceptible species may evolve to become resistant to these crops. This has necessitated the search for, and development of, alternative strategies. Whilst some of these are based on Bacillus spp. e.g. VIPS, or other insect pathogens, some are based on the use of plant-derived (enzyme inhibitors, lectins, PPO, tryptophan decarboxylase) or animal-derived genes, including insects (biotin-binding proteins, neurohormones, enzyme inhibitors). Fusion proteins, combining the features of different insecticidal proteins, have significant potential both for extending the range of insect species which could be controlled via transgenic plants, as well as for increased durability. More recently, the use of novel proteins from biological control agents, such as the teratocyte secretory protein from parasitic wasps, are actively being pursued as is the newly emerging RNAi technology. Significant effort is also focusing on the identification and exploitation of endogenous resistance using functional genomics. In the future, metabolic engineering of plants could allow us to alter with great precision the ways in which plants and insects interact. The adoption of transgenic herbicide resistant/tolerant (HR/Ht) crops has made remarkable changes to global agriculture within the last decade, with the leading market share of any transgenic crop trait. While there are a number of herbicide tolerant transgenic crops that have been developed for herbicides with different modes of action, the primary influence in world agriculture are glyphosate resistant crops (GRCs); traits for resistance to other classes of herbicide include oxynil, glufosinate, ALS inhibitors. Of the 23 countires that grow GRCs, USA, Canada, Argentina and Brasil are the major growers (maize, soybean, cotton, canaola). Crop yield is also significantly contrained by pathogens. Although not so advanced as for IR and HT, research is focussing on exploiting some of the inducible defences elicited by plants themselves, based on expression of single genes (e.g. R-genes, chitinases, defensins, stilbene) or multiple genes (polygenic resistance), as well as targetting signal transduction pathways and over-expression of key regulatory genes. However, if any such approaches for resistanc to biotic stress are to play a useful role in crop protection, it is apparent that they must be compatible with the other components of integrated pest management (IPM), not least with natural enemies of insect pests.
H. Fischer, J. Schmitt, D. Luthi, T. F. Stocker, T. Tschumi, P. Parekh, F. Joos, P. Kohler, C. Volker, R. Gersonde, C. Barbante, M. Le Floch, D. Raynaud and E. Wolff (2010)
The role of Southern Ocean processes in orbital and millennial CO2 variations - A synthesis, Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 1-2, 193-205
Recent progress in the reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 records from Antarctic ice cores has allowed for the documentation of natural CO2 variations on orbital time scales over the last up to 800,000 years and for the resolution of millennial CO2 variations during the last glacial cycle in unprecedented detail. This has shown that atmospheric CO2 varied within natural bounds of approximately 170-300 ppmv but never reached recent CO2 concentrations caused by anthropogenic CO2. emissions. In addition, the natural atmospheric CO2 concentrations show an extraordinary correlation with Southern Ocean climate changes, pointing to a significant (direct or indirect) influence of climatic and environmental changes in the Southern Ocean region on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, we compile recent ice core and marine sediment records of atmospheric CO2, temperature and environmental changes in the Southern Ocean region, as well as carbon cycle model experiments, in order to quantify the effect of potential Southern Ocean processes on atmospheric CO2 related to these orbital and millennial changes. This shows that physical and biological changes in the SO are able to explain substantial parts of the glacial/interglacial CO2 change, but that none of the single processes is able to explain this change by itself. In particular, changes in the Southern Ocean related to changes in the surface buoyancy flux, which in return is controlled by the waxing and waning of sea ice may favorably explain the high correlation Of CO2 and Antarctic temperature on orbital and millennial time scales. In contrast, the changes of the position and strength of the westerly wind field were most likely too small to explain the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 or may even have increased atmospheric CO2 in the glacial. Also iron fertilization of the marine biota in the Southern Ocean contributes to a glacial drawdown Of CO2 but turns out to be limited by other factors than the total dust input such as bioavailability of iron or macronutrient supply. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
D. C. FRANK, J. ESPER, C. C. RAIBLE, U. BUNTGEN, V. TROUET, B. STOCKER AND F. JOOS (2010)
Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate, Nature, 463, 7280, 527-530 The processes controlling the carbon flux and carbon storage of the atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial biosphere are temperature sensitive1-4 and are likely to provide a positive feedback leading to amplified anthropogenic warming3. Owing to this feedback, at timescales ranging from interannual to the 20-100-kyr cycles of Earth’s orbital variations1,5-7, warming of the climate system causes a net release of CO2 into the atmosphere; this in turn amplifies warming. But the magnitude of the climate sensitivity of the global carbon cycle (termed c), and thus of its positive feedback strength, is under debate, giving rise to large uncertainties in global warming projections8,9. Here we quantify the median c as 7.7 p.p.m.v. CO2 per 6C warming, with a likely range of 1.7-21.4 p.p.m.v.CO2 per 6C. Sensitivity experiments exclude significant influence of pre-industrial land-use change on these estimates. Our results, based on the coupling of a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of proxy-based temperature reconstructions and pre-industrial CO2 data from three ice cores, provide robust constraints for c on the policy-relevant multi-decadal to centennial timescales. By using an ensemble of .200,000 members, quantification of c is not only improved, but also likelihoods can be assigned, thereby providing a benchmark for future model simulations. Although uncertainties do not at present allow exclusion of c calculated from any of ten coupled carbon-climate models, we find that c is about twice as likely to fall in the lowermost than in the uppermost quartile of their range.Our results are incompatibly lower (P,0.05) than recent pre-industrial empirical estimates of 40 p.p.m.v. CO2 per 6C (refs 6, 7), and correspondingly suggest 80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08769 AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7280/suppinfo/nature08769_S1.html AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Frank-Ensemble-reconstruction-Constraints-2010.pdf
K. H. FREEMAN AND J. M. HAYES (1992)
Fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton and estimates of ancient CO2 levels, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 6, 2, 185-198
Reports of the 13C content of marine particulate organic carbon are compiled and on the basis of GEOSECS data and temperatures, concentrations, and isotopic compositions of dissolved CO2 in the waters in which the related phytoplankton grew are estimated. In this way, the fractionation of carbon isotopes during photosynthetic fixation of CO2 is found to be significantly correlated with concentrations of dissolved CO2. Because ancient carbon isotopic fractionations have been determined from analyses of sedimentary porphyrins [Popp et al., 1989], the relationship between isotopic fractionation and concentrations of dissolved CO2 developed here can be employed to estimate concentrations of CO2 dissolved in ancient oceans and, in turn, partial pressures of CO2 in ancient atmospheres. The calculations take into account the temperature dependence of chemical and isotopic equilibria in the dissolved-inorganic-carbon system and of air-sea equilibria. Paleoenvironmental temperatures for each sample are estimated from re-constructions of paleogeography, latitudinal temper- ature gradients, and secular changes in low-latitude sea surface temperature. It is estimated that atmospheric partial pressures of CO2 were over 1000 μatm 160–100 Ma ago, then declined to values near 300 μatm during the next 100 Ma. Analysis of a high-resolution record of carbon isotopic fractionation at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary suggests that the partial pressure of CO2 in the atmosphere was drawn down from values near 840 μatm to values near 700 μatm during the anoxic event. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/92GB00190 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Freeman- Fractionation-Carbon-Isotopes-1992.pdf
F. FUNG, A. LOPEZ AND M. NEW (2011)
Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 99-116
While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/99.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Fung-Water-Availability-2-4-degrree-Worlds-2011.pdf
G. FURRER, H. LEUZINGER AND K. AMMANN (1975)
Klimaschwankungen waehrend des alpinen Postglazials im Spiegel fossiler Boeden, Vierteljahresschrift der Naturforschenden Gesellschaft in Zuerich, 120, 1, 15-31 http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Furrer-Klimaschwankungen-1975.PDF
S. E. GAINES AND J. RAFFENSBERGER (2003)
LIMITS TO LOMBORG, FOREIGN POLICY, 135, 14-14
J. M. GARCÍA-LÓPEZ AND C. ALLUÉ (2013) Modelling future no-analogue climate distributions: A world-wide phytoclimatic niche-based survey, Global and Planetary Change, 101, 0, 1-11
By the end of the 21st century in some zones the accelerating climate change affecting this planet will create factorial combinations unknown at this time, which will give rise to climates unlike the present ones. This study presents a numerical and cartographic evaluation of these no-analogue climatic zones, whose consequences for existing ecosystems are quite unpredictable, using a method based on the convex hull in a climate hyperspace and 12 future climate projections for 2080. The percentage of the world surface that will foreseeably be occupied by no-analogue climates by 2080 ranges between 3.5% and 17.5%. The bulk of the no-analogue surface area will foreseeably be located in the Northern hemisphere (> 80%), with more elevated risk in tropical and subtropical latitudes between 10 degrees latitude South and 30 degrees latitude North, preferentially in Africa, South America, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian Peninsula, the North-West of the Gulf of Mexico, Eastern China and Polynesia. Mean temperatures would appear to be the variables most influencing the process. This affects 32 of the 34 hotspots defined for the planet, especially tropical forests in South America and Asia. 6.8% of these conservation- critical surfaces are predicted as no-analogue areas. Population density is greater in the areas that will probably develop no-analogue climates in the future than in those that will not. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112002299 AND64 http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Garcia-Lopez-Future-No-Analogue-Distribution-2013.pdf
L. GASLIKOVA, A. SCHWERZMANN, C. C. RAIBLE AND T. F. STOCKER (2011)
Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 4, 1205-1216
The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.
F. GEMENNE (2011)
Climate-induced population displacements in a 4°C+ world, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 182-195 Massive population displacements are now regularly presented as one of the most dramatic possible consequences of climate change. Current forecasts and projections show that regions that would be affected by such population movements are low-lying islands, coastal and deltaic regions, as well as sub-Saharan Africa. Such estimates, however, are usually based on a 2°C temperature rise. In the event of a 4°C+ warming, not only is it likely that climate-induced population movements will be more considerable, but also their patterns could be significantly different, as people might react differently to temperature changes that would represent a threat to their very survival. This paper puts forward the hypothesis that a greater temperature change would affect not only the magnitude of the associated population movements, but also—and above all—the characteristics of these movements, and therefore the policy responses that can address them. The paper outlines the policy evolutions that climate-induced displacements in a 4°C+ world would require. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/182.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Gemenne-Climate-Induced-Population.2011.pdf
J. GILES (2005)
CLIMATE SCEPTICS PLACE BETS ON WORLD COOLING DOWN, NATURE, 436, 7053, 897-897
R. L. GILLILAND AND S. H. SCHNEIDER (1984)
Volcanic, Co2 and Solar Forcing of Northern and Southern-Hemisphere Surface Air Temperatures, Nature, 310, 5972, 38-41
P. H. Gleick, R. M. Adams, R. M. Amasino, E. Anders, D. J. Anderson, W. W. Anderson, L. E. Anselin, M. K. Arroyo, B. Asfaw, F. J. Ayala, A. Bax, A. J. Bebbington, G. Bell, M. V. L. Bennett, J. L. Bennetzen, M. R. Berenbaum, O. B. Berlin, P. J. Bjorkman, E. Blackburn, J. E. Blamont, M. R. Botchan, J. S. Boyer, E. A. Boyle, D. Branton, S. P. Briggs, W. R. Briggs, W. J. Brill, R. J. Britten, W. S. Broecker, J. H. Brown, P. O. Brown, A. T. Brunger, J. Cairns, D. E. Canfield, S. R. Carpenter, J. C. Carrington, A. R. Cashmore, J. C. Castilla, A. Cazenave, F. S. Chapin, A. J. Ciechanover, D. E. Clapham, W. C. Clark, R. N. Clayton, M. D. Coe, E. M. Conwell, E. B. Cowling, R. M. Cowling, C. S. Cox, R. B. Croteau, D. M. Crothers, P. J. Crutzen, G. C. Daily, G. B. Dalrymple, J. L. Dangl, S. A. Darst, D. R. Davies, M. B. Davis, P. V. De Camilli, C. Dean, R. S. Defries, J. Deisenhofer, D. P. Delmer, E. F. Delong, D. J. Derosier, T. O. Diener, R. Dirzo, J. E. Dixon, M. J. Donoghue, R. F. Doolittle, T. Dunne, P. R. Ehrlich, S. N. Eisenstadt, T. Eisner, K. A. Emanuel, S. W. Englander, W. G. Ernst, P. G. Falkowski, G. Feher, J. A. Ferejohn, A. Fersht, E. H. Fischer, R. Fischer, K. V. Flannery, J. Frank, P. A. Frey, I. Fridovich, C. Frieden, D. J. Futuyma, W. R. Gardner, C. J. R. Garrett, W. Gilbert, R. B. Goldberg, W. H. Goodenough, C. S. Goodman, M. Goodman, P. Greengard, S. Hake, G. Hammel, S. Hanson, S. C. Harrison, S. R. Hart, D. L. Hartl, R. Haselkorn, K. Hawkes, J. M. Hayes, B. Hille, T. Hokfelt, J. S. House, M. Hout, D. M. Hunten, I. A. Izquierdo, A. T. Jagendorf, D. H. Janzen, R. Jeanloz, C. S. Jencks, W. A. Jury, H. R. Kaback, T. Kailath, P. Kay, S. A. Kay, D. Kennedy, A. Kerr, R. C. Kessler, G. S. Khush, S. W. Kieffer, P. V. Kirch, K. Kirk, M. G. Kivelson, J. P. Klinman, A. Klug, L. Knopoff, H. Kornberg, J. E. Kutzbach, J. C. Lagarias, K. Lambeck, A. Landy, C. H. Langmuir, B. A. Larkins, X. T. Le Pichon, R. E. Lenski, E. B. Leopold, S. A. Levin, M. Levitt, G. E. Likens, J. Lippincott-Schwartz, L. Lorand, C. O. Lovejoy, M. Lynch, A. L. Mabogunje, T. F. Malone, S. Manabe, J. Marcus, D. S. Massey, J. C. McWilliams, E. Medina, H. J. Melosh, D. J. Meltzer, C. D. Michener, E. L. Miles, H. A. Mooney, P. B. Moore, F. M. M. Morel, E. S. Mosley-Thompson, B. Moss, W. H. Munk, N. Myers, G. B. Nair, J. Nathans, E. W. Nester, R. A. Nicoll, R. P. Novick, J. F. O’Connell, P. E. Olsen, N. D. Opdyke, G. F. Oster, E. Ostrom, N. R. Pace, R. T. Paine, R. D. Palmiter, J. Pedlosky, G. A. Petsko, G. H. Pettengill, S. G. Philander, D. R. Piperno, T. D. Pollard, P. B. Price, P. A. Reichard, B. F. Reskin, R. E. Ricklefs, R. L. Rivest, J. D. Roberts, A. K. Romney, M. G. Rossmann, D. W. Russell, W. J. Rutter, J. A. Sabloff, R. Z. Sagdeev, M. D. Sahlins, A. Salmond, J. R. Sanes, R. Schekman, J. Schellnhuber, D. W. Schindler, J. Schmitt, S. H. Schneider, V. L. Schramm, R. R. Sederoff, C. J. Shatz, F. Sherman, R. L. Sidman, K. Sieh, E. L. Simons, B. H. Singer, M. F. Singer, B. Skyrms, N. H. Sleep, B. D. Smith, S. H. Snyder, R. R. Sokal, C. S. Spencer, T. A. Steitz, K. B. Strier, T. C. Suudhof, S. S. Taylor, J. Terborgh, D. H. Thomas, L. G. Thompson, R. T. T. Jian, M. G. Turner, S. Uyeda, J. W. Valentine, J. S. Valentine, J. L. Van Etten, K. E. Van Holde, M. Vaughan, S. Verba, P. H. Von Hippel, D. B. Wake, A. Walker, J. E. Walker, E. B. Watson, P. J. Watson, D. Weigel, S. R. Wessler, M. J. West-Eberhard, T. D. White, W. J. Wilson, R. V. Wolfenden, J. A. Wood, G. M. Woodwell, H. E. Wright, C. Wu, C. Wunsch and M. L. Zoback (2010)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE INTEGRITY OF SCIENCE, SCIENCE, 328, 5979, 689-690
I. M. GOKLANY (2009)
IS CLIMATE CHANGE THE “DEFINING CHALLENGE OF OUR AGE”?, Energy & Environment, 20, 3, 279-302
Climate change, some claim, is this century’s most important environmental challenge. Mortality estimates for the year 2000 from the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate, however, that a dozen other risk factors contribute more to global mortality and global burden of disease. Moreover, the state-of-the-art British-sponsored fast track assessments (FTAs) of the global impacts of climate change show that through 2085-2100, climate change would contribute less to human health and environmental threats than other risk factors. Climate change is, therefore, unlikely to be the 21(st) century’s most important environmental problem. Combining the FTA results with WHO’s mortality estimates indicates that halting climate change would reduce cumulative mortality from hunger, malaria, and coastal flooding, by 4-10 percent in 2085 while the Kyoto Protocol would lower it by 0.4-1 percent. FTA results also show that reducing climate change will increase populations-at-risk from water stress and, possibly, threats to biodiversity. But adaptive measures focused specifically on reducing vulnerability to climate sensitive threats would reduce cumulative mortality by 50-75 percent at a fraction of the Kyoto Protocol’s cost without adding to risks from water stress or to biodiversity. Such “focused adaptation” would, moreover, reduce major hurdles to the developing world’s sustainable economic development, lack of which is the major reason for its vulnerability to climate change (and any other form of adversity). Thus, focused adaptation can combat climate change and advance global well-being, particularly of the world’s most vulnerable populations, more effectively than aggressive GHG reductions. Alternatively, these benefits and more - reductions in poverty, and infant and maternal mortality by 50-75%; increased access to safe water and sanitation; and universal literacy - can be obtained by broadly advancing sustainable economic development through policies, institutions and measures (such as those that would meet the UN Millennium Development Goals) at a cost approximating that of the Kyoto Protocol. However, in order to deal with climate change beyond the 20852100 timeframe, the paper also recommends expanding research and development of mitigation options, reducing barriers to implementing such options, and active science and monitoring programs to provide early warning of any “dangerous” climate change impacts.
I. M. GOKLANY (2009)
CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT THE BIGGEST GLOBAL HEALTH THREAT, LANCET, 374, 9694, 973- 974
N. Gruber, M. Gloor, S. E. M. Fletcher, S. C. Doney, S. Dutkiewicz, M. J. Follows, M. Gerber, A. R. Jacobson, F. Joos, K. Lindsay, D. Menemenlis, A. Mouchet, S. A. Muller, J. L. Sarmiento and T. Takahashi (2009)
Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23, We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air-sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air-sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a(-1). This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in the high latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small(similar to -0.3 Pg C a(-1)) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44 degrees S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO(2)-based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58 degrees S and 44 degrees S, and a source in the region south of 58 degrees S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air-sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be -1.7 +/- 0.4 Pg C a(-1) (inversion) and -1.4 +/- 0.7 Pg C a(-1) (pCO(2)- climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river-derived carbon of similar to+0.5 Pg C a(-1), and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of -2.2 +/- 0.3 Pg C a(-1) (inversion) and -1.9 +/- 0.7 Pg C a(-1) (pCO(2)- climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo-Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between -0.2 and -0.3 Pg C a(-1) across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air-sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long-term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.
N. Gruber, M. Gloor, S. E. Mikaloff Fletcher, S. C. Doney, S. Dutkiewicz, M. J. Follows, M. Gerber, A. R. Jacobson, F. Joos, K. Lindsay, D. Menemenlis, A. Mouchet, S. A. Müller, J. L. Sarmiento and T. Takahashi (2009)
Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 23, 1, GB1005
We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air-sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air-sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a−1. This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a−1) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO2-based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air-sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2- climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river-derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a−1, and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo-Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a−1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air-sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long-term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003349 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Gruber-Oceanic- Sources-Sinks-2009.pdf
J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy, P. Kharecha, A. Lacis, R. Miller, L. Nazarenko, K. Lo, G. A. Schmidt, G. Russell, I. Aleinov, S. Bauer, S. E. Baum, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, M. Chandler, Y. Cheng, A. Cohen, A. Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, E. Fleming, A. Friend, T. Hall, C. Jackman, J. Jonas, M. Kelley, N. Y. Kiang, D. Koch, G. Labow, J. Lerner, S. Menon, T. Novakov, V. Oinas, J. Perlwitz, J. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, R. Schmunk, D. Shindell, P. Stone, S. Sun, D. Streets, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, N. Unger, M. Yao and S. Zhang (2007)
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS model E study, Atmos. Chem. Phys.,, 7, 2287–2312
We investigate the issue of “dangerous humanmade interference with climate” using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880–2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the “alternative” scenario of Hansen and Sato (2004). Identification of “dangerous” effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1_C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing _1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1_C if climate sensitivity is _3_C or less for doubled CO2. The alternative scenario keeps mean regional seasonal warming within 2_ (standard deviations) of 20th century variability, but other scenarios yield regional changes of 5–10_, i.e. mean conditions outside the range of local experience.
We conclude that a CO2 level exceeding about 450 ppm is “dangerous”, but reduction of non-CO2 forcings can provide modest relief on the CO2 constraint. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. We suggest that Arctic climate change has been driven as much by pollutants (O3, its precursor CH4, and soot) as by CO2, offering hope that dual efforts to reduce pollutants and slow CO2 growth could minimize Arctic change. Simulated recent ocean warming in the region of Atlantic hurricane formation is comparable to observations, suggesting that greenhouse gases (GHGs) may have contributed to a trend toward greater hurricane intensities. Increasing GHGs cause significant warming in our model in submarine regions of ice shelves and shallow methane hydrates, raising concern about the potential for accelerating sea level rise and future positive feedback from methane release. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are required to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario.
http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Hansen-Dangerous-2007.pdf
E. HANUSHEK (2005)
Pseudo-Science and a Sound Basic Education: Voodoo Statistics in New York, Education Next, 5, 4, 67-73
The education problems in New York City (and a number of other jurisdictions that face court financing challenges) are real and important. Many people would indeed be willing to put more money into New York City schools (or any poorly performing school for that matter) if they had any reason to believe that students’ achievement would improve significantly. Unfortunately, addressing these problems by simply augmenting the current system, which has virtually nonexistent performance incentives, will not solve the problems. At such a critical juncture, students and taxpayers alike deserve an approach that embraces the best of what we already know about investments in public schoolings that work. This is not ensured by any of the legal proceedings to date. In the end, the big difficulty with the costing-out exercise is that it purports to provide something that cannot currently be provided: a scientific assessment of what spending is needed to bring about dramatic improvements in student performance. By their very nature such studies provide little information about the costs of achieving improvements efficiently. They contain nary a word about changing the reward structure for teachers (other than paying everybody more). They avoid any consideration of accountability systems based on student outcomes. They lack any appropriate empirical basis. Decisions on how much to spend on education are not scientific questions, and they cannot be answered with methods that effectively rule out all discussion of reforms that might make the school system more efficient. (Contains 3 figures.)
http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Peer-Review/Hanusek-Pesudoscience-Sound-Basic-Education2005.pdf
C. HARRISON (2004)
PEER REVIEW, POLITICS AND PLURALISM, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, 7, 5, 357- 368
The first part of this paper describes the editorial decisions that led to the publishing of The Skeptical Environmentalist (TSE) and the rejection of requests by critics that Cambridge should cease publication on the grounds of claims that it had not been peer-reviewed and that it would be abused by right wing political interests seeking justification for opposing new environmental regulation. The second part focuses on the strengths and weaknesses of peer review and compares the editorial decision-making process, including peer review in journals and book publishers. The third part of the paper explores the role of political considerations in editorial decision- making and compares the controversy surrounding TSE with other recent controversial publications in both the arts and sciences. The final part of the article draws on the work of political scientist and constitutional lawyer Cass Sunstein to argue that the academy is based on the principle of pluralism and that University Presses acting as “general interest intermediaries” have a particular responsibility to publish a wide range of opinion. Political pressure on presses to exercise a form of self-censorship should be resisted. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
B. HAYA, M. RANGANATHAN AND S. KIRPEKAR (2009)
Barriers to sugar mill cogeneration in India:Insights into the structure of post-2012 climate financing instruments, Climate and Development, 1, 66-82
The Indian government has set the challenging goal of increasing its electricity capacity six- to eight-fold in the next 30 years in the context of significant capacity shortfalls and a financially ailing electricity sector. The central and state governments are subsidizing renewable energy because of energy security concerns, to promote domestic resources and a diversity of fuel supply. International funds made available through the international climate change regime could potentially provide much needed support to pay the higher costs that most renewable energy requires. This article performs a case study analysis of the history of the development of one renewable energy technology in India - cogeneration of sugarcane waste - focusing on the barriers this technology has faced in the past and now faces, and how well international and domestic efforts have worked to overcome these barriers. The goal of this work is to lend insight into the effective structure of future international support mechanisms being discussed for inclusion under the post-2012 climate change regime. This study finds that bagasse cogeneration has faced layers of informational, technical, regulatory and financial barriers that have changed over time, and differed significantly between the private and cooperative sugar sectors. Each of the programmes designed to support bagasse cogeneration had a role to play in enabling the bagasse cogeneration currently installed, and no single programme would have been successful on its own. Some barriers to the technology needed directed efforts designed to address the specific context of the sugar sector in India; simply subsidizing the technology or putting a price on carbon was not enough. Where climate (global) and development (local) priorities differ, projects that bring about international goals risk running into conflict with other more pressing domestic goals. Interviews at mills attempting to access carbon financing through the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) indicate that additionality-testing is a challenge to the effectiveness of this mechanism. Any effort to exploit the remaining 86% of the estimated national potential for high efficiency bagasse cogeneration will need to address the special financial and political conditions facing cooperative mills. http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Haya-Barriers-Sugar-Mill-2011.pdf
R. W. HERDT (2001)
Changing Priorities for International Agricultural Research,, CIMMYT Economics Program, Fifth Distinguished Economics Lecture, CIMMYT 46
This paper examines the consequences of global changes for publicly supported agricultural research and its implication on research priorities of the CGIAR. The author asks whether the CGIAR has appropriately adjusted its activities in light of these changes and whether the technological and institutional changes of the past decade mean that germplasm conservation, intellectual property protection, and crop management research should be getting more support than varietal development. He discusses public goods and argues that the increasingly private nature of crop varieties, driven by the DNA revolution and extension of intellectual property rights to plant, increases the comparative advantage of private research in varietal development. On the other hand, crop mangement retains its public goods nature and there is little likelihood of this changing. http://libcatalog.cimmyt.org/download/cim/74688.pdf AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Herdt-Changing-Priorities-CIMMYT-2001.pdf
P. W. Hill, J. Farrar, P. Roberts, M. Farrell, H. Grant, K. K. Newsham, D. W. Hopkins, R. D. Bardgett and D. L. Jones (2011)
Vascular plant success in a warming Antarctic may be due to efficient nitrogen acquisition, Nature Clim. Change, 1, 1, 50-53 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1060 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/abs/nclimate1060.html#supplementary-information AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Hill-Vascular-Plant-Success-Antarctica-2011.pdf
A. A. HOFFMANN AND C. M. SGRO (2011) CLIMATE CHANGE AND EVOLUTIONARY ADAPTATION, NATURE, 470, 7335, 479-485 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature09670 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Hoffman-Climate- Change-Evolution-2011.pdf
P. B. HOLDEN, N. R. EDWARDS, E. W. WOLFF, N. J. LANG, J. S. SINGARAYER, P. J. VALDES AND T. F. STOCKER (2010)
Interhemispheric coupling, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and warm Antarctic interglacials, Climate of the Past, 6, 4, 431-443
Ice core evidence indicates that even though atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed similar to 300 ppm at any point during the last 800 000 years, East Antarctica was at least similar to 3-4 A degrees C warmer than preindustrial (CO2 similar to 280 ppm) in each of the last four interglacials. During the previous three interglacials, this anomalous warming was short lived (similar to 3000 years) and apparently occurred before the completion of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation. Hereafter, we refer to these periods as ‘Warmer than Present Transients’ (WPTs). We present a series of experiments to investigate the impact of deglacial meltwater on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Antarctic temperature. It is well known that a slowed AMOC would increase southern sea surface temperature (SST) through the bipolar seesaw and observational data suggests that the AMOC remained weak throughout the terminations preceding WPTs, strengthening rapidly at a time which coincides closely with peak Antarctic temperature. We present two 800 kyr transient simulations using the Intermediate Complexity model GENIE-1 which demonstrate that meltwater forcing generates transient southern warming that is consistent with the timing of WPTs, but is not sufficient (in this single parameterisation) to reproduce the magnitude of observed warmth. In order to investigate model and boundary condition uncertainty, we present three ensembles of transient GENIE-1 simulations across Termination II (135 000 to 124 000 BP) and three snapshot HadCM3 simulations at 130 000 BP. Only with consideration of the possible feedback of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) retreat does it become possible to simulate the magnitude of observed warming.
R. HOLDEREGGER AND C. THIEL-EGENTER (2009)
A discussion of different types of glacial refugia used in mountain biogeography and phylogeography, Journal of Biogeography, 36, 3, 476-480
With the recent rise of phylogeography, the biogeography of mountain species (species with their current main distribution above timber line), especially their glacial history, has attracted renewed interest. In particular, the question of where mountain species survived the ice ages has been approached in many phylogeographical studies. The terminology of glacial refugia of mountain species is often confusing, contradictory or counter- intuitive. Our aim is to clarify and simplify this terminology. First, we offer a general definition of the term glacial refugium for mountain species. Then, we discuss three main types of glacial refugia of mountain species, i.e. nunatak, peripheral and lowland refugia. We believe that the discrimination of these three types of glacial refugia is sufficient to describe the glacial survival of (most) mountain species. Finally, we argue that the terms in situ survival and ex situ survival and the term periglacial refugium should only be used to describe specific cases of glacial history. No simple classification system can adequately describe every kind of glacial refugium, but we propose that authors should focus on providing comprehensive descriptions of particular refugial situations instead of introducing new terminology.
A. HORMES, B. U. MüLLER AND C. SCHLüCHTER (2001)
The Alps with little ice: evidence for eight Holocene phases of reduced glacier extent in the Central Swiss Alps, The Holocene, 11, 3, 255-265
Glacially deformed pieces of wood, organic lake sediments and clasts of reworked peat have been collected in front of Alpine glaciers since AD 1990. The palaeoglaciological interpretation of these organic materials is related to earlier phases of glacier recession surpassing that of today’s shrunken glaciers and to tree growth and peat accumulation in the valleys now occupied by the glaciers. Glacial transport of the material is indicated by wood anatomy, incorporated silt, sand and gravel particles, missing bark and deformed treerings. A total of 65 samples have been radiocarbon dated so far, and clusters of dates provide evidence of eight phases of glacier recession: 9910-9550, 9010-7980, 7250-6500, 6170-5950, 5290-3870, 3640-3360, 2740-2620 and 1530-1170 calibrated years BP. Allowing for the timelag between climatic fluctuations, glacier response and vegetation colonization, these recession phases may lag behind climatic changes by 100-200 years. http://hol.sagepub.com/content/11/3/255.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Hormes-Alps-Little-Ice-2001.pdf
S. M. HSIANG, K. C. MENG AND M. A. CANE (2011)
Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate, Nature, 476, 7361, 438-441
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature10311 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Solomon-Civil- Conflicts-Climate-2011.pdf AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v476/n7361/abs/nature10311.html#supplementary-information
B. HUDSON (2011)
Federal Constitutions and Global Governance: The Case of Climate Change, Indiana Law Journal, Vol. 87, 2012, http://ssrn.com/paper=1801648 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Hudson-Federal- Constitutions-2011.pdf
M. HULME, E. ZORITA, T. F. STOCKER, J. PRICE AND J. R. CHRISTY (2010)
IPCC: CHERISH IT, TWEAK IT OR SCRAP IT?, NATURE, 463, 7282, 730-732
C. M. HUNTER, H. CASWELL, M. C. RUNGE, E. V. REGEHR, S. C. AMSTRUP AND I. STIRLING (2010)
Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis, Ecology, 91, 10, 2883-2897
IDSO S. B. (1998)
CO2-induced global warming: a skeptic’s view of potential climate change, Climate Research, 10, 1, 69-82
Over the course of the past 2 decades, I have analyzed a number of natural phenomena that reveal how Earth’s near-surface air temperature responds to surface radiative perturbations. These studies all suggest that a 300 to 600 ppm doubling of the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration could raise the planet’s mean surface air temperature by only about 0.4 degrees C. Even this modicum of warming may never be realized, however, for it could be negated by a number of planetary cooling forces that are intensified by warmer temperatures and by the strengthening of biological processes that are enhanced by the same rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration that drives the warming. Several of these cooling forces have individually been estimated to be of equivalent magnitude, but of opposite sign, to the typically predicted greenhouse effect of a doubling of the air’s CO2 content, which suggests to me that little net temperature change will ultimately result from the ongoing buildup of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere. Consequently, I am skeptical of the predictions of significant CO2-induced global warming that are being made by state-of-the-art climate models and believe that much more work on a wide variety of research fronts will be required to properly resolve the issue.
A. Indermuhle, T. F. Stocker, F. Joos, H. Fischer, H. J. Smith, M. Wahlen, B. Deck, D. Mastroianni, J. Tschumi, T. Blunier, R. Meyer and B. Stauffer (1999)
Holocene carbon-cycle dynamics based on CO2 trapped in ice at Taylor Dome, Antarctica, Nature, 398, 6723, 121- 126 A high-resolution ice-core record of atmospheric CO2 concentration over the Holocene epoch shows that the global carbon cycle has not been in steady state during the past 11,000 years. Analysis of the CO2 concentration and carbon stable-isotope records, using a one-dimensional carbon-cycle model, suggests that changes in terrestrial biomass and sea surface temperature were largely responsible for the observed millennial-scale changes of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
IPCC (2005)
IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, B. Metz, O. Davidson, H. C. de Coninck, a. M. Loos and L. A. M. (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 442
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B1gFp6Ioo3akWFVURndxRU5xU1E/edit?pli=1 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/IPCC-Carbon-Dioxide-Capture-Storage-2005.pdf
IPCC (2012)
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working groups I and II, C. B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, a. M. Tignor and P. M. M. (eds.)], Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp, 582
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/IPCC-Managing-Risks-Extreme-Events-2012.pdf
IPCC, G. C. Hegerl, F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, Y. N.P. Gillett, J. A. Luo, Marengo Orsini, N. Nicholls, J. E. P. and and P.A. Stott (2007)
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change, Chapter 9, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. T. and and H. L. M. (eds.), Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press,, 84
http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Hegerl-Understanding-Climate-Change-Ch9-2007.pdf
IPCC, METZ BERT, DAVIDSON OGUNLADE, BOSCH PETER, RUTU DAVE AND MEYER LEO (2007)
Climate Change 2007 - Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC Intergovernemtal Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press; printed at Friesens, Canada, edition 1 (12. November 2007) 70 Euro, free downloads on internet, 862
This IPCC Fourth Assessment Report brings us completely up-to-date on the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change. The world’s leading experts provide a comprehensive and balanced assessment for researchers, students, and policymakers, and a standard reference work for policy decisions worldwide.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/contents.html AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/IPCC-Mitigation-Full-Report-2007.pdf http://www.amazon.de/Climate-Change- 2007-Mitigation-contribution/dp/0521705983/ref=pd_bxgy_eb_img_b
T. JACOB, J. WAHR, W. T. PFEFFER AND S. SWENSON (2012)
RECENT CONTRIBUTIONS OF GLACIERS AND ICE CAPS TO SEA LEVEL RISE, NATURE, 482, 7386, 514-518
Glaciers and ice caps (GICs) are important contributors to present-day global mean sea level rise(1-4). Most previous global mass balance estimates for GICs rely on extrapolation of sparse mass balance measurements(1,2,4) representing only a small fraction of the GIC area, leaving their overall contribution to sea level rise unclear. Here we show that GICs, excluding the Greenland and Antarctic peripheral GICs, lost mass at a rate of 148 +/- 30 Gt yr(- 1) from January 2003 to December 2010, contributing 0.41 +/- 0.08 mm yr(-1) to sea level rise. Our results are based on a global, simultaneous inversion of monthly GRACE-derived satellite gravity fields, from which we calculate the mass change over all ice-covered regions greater in area than 100 km(2). The GIC rate for 2003-2010 is about 30 per cent smaller than the previous mass balance estimate that most closely matches our study period(2). The high mountains of Asia, in particular, show a mass loss of only 4 +/- 20 Gt yr(-1) for 2003-2010, compared with 47-55 Gt yr(-1) in previously published estimates(2,5). For completeness, we also estimate that the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, including their peripheral GICs, contributed 1.06 +/- 0.19 mm yr(-1) to sea level rise over the same time period. The total contribution to sea level rise from all ice-covered regions is thus 1.48 +/- 0.26 mm yr(-1), which agrees well with independent estimates of sea level rise originating from land ice loss and other terrestrial sources(6).
J. JAY, M. PRITCHARD, M. WEST, D. CHRISTENSEN, M. HANEY, E. MINAYA, M. SUNAGUA, S. MCNUTT AND M. ZABALA (2011) Shallow seismicity, triggered seismicity, and ambient noise tomography at the long-dormant Uturuncu Volcano, Bolivia, Bulletin of Volcanology, 1-21
Using a network of 15 seismometers around the inflating Uturuncu Volcano from April 2009 to 2010, we find an average rate of about three local volcano-tectonic earthquakes per day, and swarms of 5–60 events a few times per month with local magnitudes ranging from −1.2 to 3.7. The earthquake depths are near sea level, more than 10 km above the geodetically inferred inflation source and the Altiplano Puna Magma Body. The Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered hundreds of earthquakes at Uturuncu with the onset of the Love and Rayleigh waves and again with the passage of the X2/X3 overtone phases of Rayleigh waves. This is one of the first incidences in which triggering has been observed from multiple surface wave trains. The earthquakes are oriented NW–SE similar to the regional faults and lineaments. The b value of the catalog is 0.49, consistent with a tectonic origin of the earthquakes. We perform ambient noise tomography using Love wave cross-correlations to image a low-velocity zone at 1.9 to 3.9 km depth below the surface centered slightly north of the summit. The low velocities are perhaps related to the hydrothermal system and the low-velocity zone is spatially correlated with earthquake locations. The earthquake rate appears to vary with time—a seismic deployment from 1996 to 1997 reveals 1–5 earthquakes per day, whereas 60 events/day were seen during 5 days using one seismometer in 2003. However, differences in analysis methods and magnitudes of completeness do not allow direct comparison of these seismicity rates. The rate of seismic activity at Uturuncu is higher than at other well-monitored inflating volcanoes during periods of repose. The frequent swarms and triggered earthquakes suggest the hydrothermal system is metastable. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0568-7 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Jay-Shallow- Seismicity-Uturuncu-2011.pdf
D. J. A. JOHANSSON, U. M. PERSSON AND C. AZAR (2006)
The Cost of Using Global Warming Potentials: Analysing the Trade off Between CO2, CH4 and N2O, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 291-309
Abstract The metric governing the trade-off between different greenhouse gases in the Kyoto Protocol, the Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), has received ample critique from both scientific and economic points of view. Here we use an integrated climate-economic optimization model to estimate the cost-effective trade-off between CO2, CH4 and N2O when meeting a temperature stabilization target. We then estimate the increased cost from using GWPs when meeting the same temperature target. Although the efficient valuation of the gases differs significantly from their respective GWPs, the potential economic benefit of valuing them in a more correct way amounts to 3.8 percent of the overall costs of meeting the temperature stabilization target in the base case. In absolute value, this corresponds to an additional net present value cost of US$2000100 billion. To corroborate our findings we perform a Monte Carlo-analysis where several key parameters are randomly varied simultaneously. The result from this exercise shows that our main result is robust to a wide range of changes in the key parameter values, giving a median economic loss from using GWPs of 4.2 percent. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9054-1 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Johansson-Cost-Using-2006.pdf
M. T. JONES, R. S. J. SPARKS AND P. J. VALDES (2007)
THE CLIMATIC IMPACT OF SUPERVOLCANIC ASH BLANKETS, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 29, 6, 553-564
Supervolcanoes are large caldera systems that can expel vast quantities of ash, volcanic gases in a single eruption, far larger than any recorded in recent history. These super-eruptions have been suggested as possible catalysts for long-term climate change and may be responsible for bottlenecks in human and animal populations. Here, we consider the previously neglected climatic effects of a continent-sized ash deposit with a high albedo and show that a decadal climate forcing is expected. We use a coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) to simulate the effect of an ash blanket from Yellowstone volcano, USA, covering much of North America. Reflectivity measurements of dry volcanic ash show albedo values as high as snow, implying that the effects of an ash blanket would be severe. The modeling results indicate major disturbances to the climate, particularly to oscillatory patterns such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Atmospheric disruptions would continue for decades after the eruption due to extended ash blanket longevity. The climatic response to an ash blanket is not significant enough to instigate a change to stadial periods at present day boundary conditions, though this is one of several impacts associated with a super-eruption which may induce long-term climatic change.
R. K. KAUFMANN, H. KAUPPI AND J. H. STOCK (2006)
EMISSIONS, CONCENTRATIONS, & TEMPERATURE: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, CLIMATIC CHANGE, 77, 3, 249-278
Abstract We use recent advances in time series econometrics to estimate the relation among emissions of CO2 and CH4, the concentration of these gases, and global surface temperature. These models are estimated and specified to answer two questions; (1) does human activity affect global surface temperature and; (2) does global surface temperature affect the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and/or methane. Regression results provide direct evidence for a statistically meaningful relation between radiative forcing and global surface temperature. A simple model based on these results indicates that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulfur emissions are largely responsible for the change in temperature over the last 130 years. The regression results also indicate that increases in surface temperature since 1870 have changed the flow of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere in a way that increases its atmospheric concentration. Finally, the regression results for methane hint that higher temperatures may increase its atmospheric concentration, but this effect is not estimated precisely. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9062-1 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Kaufmann-Emissions-Concentrations-2006.pdf
R. K. KAUFMANN, H. KAUPPI AND J. H. STOCK (2006) The Relationship Between Radiative Forcing and Temperature: What Do Statistical Analyses of the Instrumental Temperature Record Measure?, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 279-289
Abstract Comparing statistical estimates for the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO2 with those generated by climate models begs the question, is the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO2 that is estimated from the instrumental temperature record using statistical techniques consistent with the transient climate response, the equilibrium climate sensitivity, or the effective climate sensitivity. Here, we attempt to answer the question, what do statistical analyses of the observational record measure, by using these same statistical techniques to estimate the temperature effect of a doubling in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from seventeen simulations run for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CMIP2). The results indicate that the temperature effect estimated by the statistical methodology is consistent with the transient climate response and that this consistency is relatively unaffected by sample size or the increase in radiative forcing in the sample.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9063-0 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Kauffmann-Relationship-Radiative-Forcing-2006.pdf
P. S. KENCH, S. L. NICHOL AND R. F. MCLEAN (2005)
Comment on “New perspectives for the future of the Maldives” by Morner, N.A., et al. [Global Planet. Change 40 (2004), 177-182], Global and Planetary Change, 47, 1, 67-69
R. A. KERR (2007)
CLIMATE CHANGE: Another Global Warming Icon Comes Under Attack, Science %R 10.1126/science.317.5834.28a, 317, 5834, 28a-29 http://www.sciencemag.org AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Kerr-Another-Icon-2008.pdf
L. F. KHILYUK AND G. V. CHILINGAR (2003)
GLOBAL WARMING: ARE WE CONFUSING CAUSE AND EFFECT?, ENERGY SOURCES, 25, 4, 357-370
The writers show that the present-day global warming is not due to the increase in the volume of greenhouse gases, but rather to the increased solar activity. It appears that we are at the rising phase of the latest 80-90 year cycle of the solar activity. At the present time, there is no sound justification for the cut in the man-induced carbon dioxide emission as required by the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The rising global temperature drives large volumes of CO2 from the ocean water into the atmosphere. Thus “cause” and “effect” of global warming phenomenon are misunderstood by many scientists.
L. F. KHILYUK AND G. V. CHILINGAR (2004)
Global warming and long-term climatic changes: a progress report, Environmental Geology, 46, 6-7, 970-979
The authors believe that recent global warming of Earth’s atmosphere is not due to an increase in anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission but rather to long-term global factors. The human contribution to the CO2 content in the atmosphere and the increase in temperature is negligible in comparison with other sources of carbon dioxide emission. Discussed in this paper are sources, avenues of migration, and the amounts of naturally produced carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) and long-term changes in the Earth’s climate, which are necessary for understanding the causes of current temperature trends.
L. F. KHILYUK AND G. V. CHILINGAR (2006)
On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved?, Environmental Geology, 50, 6, 899- 910
The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation as a dominant external energy supplier to the Earth, (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere. The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative comparison of the scope and extent of the forces of nature and anthropogenic influences on the Earth’s climate is especially important at the time of broad-scale public debates on current global warming. The writers show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible.
J. T. KIEHL, C. A. SHIELDS, J. J. HACK AND W. D. COLLINS (2006)
The climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), Journal of Climate, 19, 11, 2584-2596 The climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is described in terms of the equilibrium change in surface temperature due to a doubling of carbon dioxide in a slab ocean version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the transient climate response, which is the surface temperature change at the point of doubling of carbon dioxide in a 1% yr(-1) CO2 simulation with the fully coupled CCSM. For a fixed atmospheric horizontal resolution across model versions, we show that the equilibrium sensitivity has monotonically increased across CSM1.4, CCSM2, to CCSM3 from 2.01 degrees to 2.27 degrees to 2.47 degrees C, respectively. The transient climate response for these versions is 1.44 degrees to 1.09 degrees to 1.48 degrees C, respectively. Using climate feedback analysis, it is shown that both clear-sky and cloudy-sky processes have contributed to the changes in transient climate response. The dependence of these sensitivities on horizontal resolution is also explored. The equilibrium sensitivity of the high-resolution (T85) version of CCSM3 is 2.71 degrees C, while the equilibrium response for the low-resolution model (T31) is 2.32 degrees C. It is shown that the shortwave cloud response of the high-resolution version of the CCSM3 is anomalous compared to the low-and moderate-resolution versions.
J. T. KIEL (2006)
Geoengineering climate Change: Treating the symptom over the cause?, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 227-228
Without Abstract
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9132-4 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Kiel- Geoengineereing-Symptom-2006.pdf
V. KLAUS AND D. TRIISKA (2007)
Towards a critique of the concepts of solidarity and discrimination as applied in inter-temporal analyses of the so- called global problems, Politicka Ekonomie, 55, 6, 723-750
The authors’ approach to the ethical and political aspects of inter-temporal interactions is the following: 1) Two representative agents R-alpha and R-beta are analyzed and asymmetries in their wealth and voting powers are dealt with by a the text-book tool of a welfare function - its intra and inter-temporal application. 2) A generalized concept of a distance (measured in miles and years, respectively) is to indicate to what extend similarities and differences can be reasonably expected between R-alpha and R-beta - their interests and values. With respect to a given distance, a discount factor then represents the weight that R-alpha ascribes to the well-being of his counter- party R-beta. 3) In the Intra-temporal case, the intuitive appeal of the concepts of solidarity, justice and discrimination is accepted, as well as the resultant transfers of wealth from the richer R-alpha to his relatively poorer contemporary fellow R-beta. 4) Contrariwise, the very concepts easily loose sense in the inter-temporal case. The arguments for this difference are that: (a) the same person may act as both R-alpha and R-beta; the - future R-beta may be but a new sample of a given man, household, firm, nation... or even mankind itself, (b) wealth is likely to grow with the time-distance between the future R-beta and the present decision maker R-alpha, (c) unlike the geographical distance, a time horizon is infinite; the future R-beta may exist whenever 10 days, 20 months or 17 000 years from now, (d) an interest rate or investment possibilities affect the present R-alpha’s wealth or budget constraint. 5) With the level of aggregation of R-alpha and R-beta, the analytical problems become still more eminent. Should then the two agents represent a mankind as a whole, it appears impossible to identify at what point of the future R-beta lives - even if we managed to interpret the interests and preferences of us all today as R-alpha. A message is passed to natural scientists that they cross over to social analyses whenever they add valuations to their data - in a form of warnings not to mention regulatory proposals - and that as visitors they should respect the state of art of the contemporary social science, including its genuine advisory capacity, namely to globally established policy-makers. Hence, any regulatory constraint on our liberties and freedoms must be always viewed as an outcome of a political struggle - never then as a victory of a modem science, as the currently prevailing rhetoric may suggest.
K. KLEINER (2011)
DATA ON DEMAND, NATURE CLIM. CHANGE, 1, 1, 10-12
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1057 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Kleiner-Data-on- Demand-2011.pdf
T. R. Knutson, J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava and M. Sugi (2010)
TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 3, 3, 157-163
Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate - and if so, how - has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2-11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6-34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies.
R. Knutti, M. R. Allen, P. Friedlingstein, J. M. Gregory, G. C. Hegerl, G. A. Meehl, M. Meinshausen, J. M. Murphy, G. K. Plattner, S. C. B. Raper, T. F. Stocker, P. A. Stott, H. Teng and T. M. L. Wigley (2008)
A review of uncertainties in global temperature projections over the twenty-first century, Journal of Climate, 21, 11, 2651-2663
Quantification of the uncertainties in future climate projections is crucial for the implementation of climate policies. Here a review of projections of global temperature change over the twenty-first century is provided for the six illustrative emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) that assume no policy intervention, based on the latest generation of coupled general circulation models, climate models of intermediate complexity, and simple models, and uncertainty ranges and probabilistic projections from various published methods and models are assessed. Despite substantial improvements in climate models, projections for given scenarios on average have not changed much in recent years. Recent progress has, however, increased the confidence in uncertainty estimates and now allows a better separation of the uncertainties introduced by scenarios, physical feedbacks, carbon cycle, and structural uncertainty. Projection uncertainties are now constrained by observations and therefore consistent with past observed trends and patterns. Future trends in global temperature resulting from anthropogenic forcing over the next few decades are found to be comparably well constrained. Uncertainties for projections on the century time scale, when accounting for structural and feedback uncertainties, are larger than captured in single models or methods. This is due to differences in the models, the sources of uncertainty taken into account, the type of observational constraints used, and the statistical assumptions made. It is shown that as an approximation, the relative uncertainty range for projected warming in 2100 is the same for all scenarios. Inclusion of uncertainties in carbon cycle-climate feedbacks extends the upper bound of the uncertainty range by more than the lower bound.
R. KNUTTI, T. F. STOCKER, F. JOOS AND G.-K. PLATTNER (2002)
Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles, Nature, 416, 6882, 719-723
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/416719a AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v416/n6882/suppinfo/416719a_S1.html AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Knutti-Constraints-Radiative-Forcing-2002.pdf
P. H. KOEHN (2006)
Fitting a Vital Linkage Piece into the Multidimensional Emissions-reduction Puzzle: Nongovernmental Pathways to Consumption Changes in the PRC and the USA, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 377-413 Abstract The United States and China are responsible for nearly 40 per cent of total annual greenhouse gas emissions. Global climatic stabilization cannot succeed without the participation of people and organizations in the PRC and the USA. Given the likelihood of continued political paralysis at the national level in both countries, it is important to assess the strengths, weaknesses, and potential of nongovernmental actors in bringing about durable reductions in GHG emissions. Consumption trajectories present one of the most intractable barriers to anthropogenic GHG-emissions reductions and to long-term climatic stabilization. Nordlund and Garvill’s (2003) model is adapted and applied in assessing prospects for value change, specific problem awareness, and sustainable-consumption behavior in the PRC and USA. The contributions of nonstate actors are elucidated when issue bundling (specifically links with stress reduction and healthy futures) and principle bundling are incorporated into the explanatory framework. The involvement of transnationally competent activists in emissions-mitigation projects, value change, and durable sustainable-consumption practices provides a beacon for future possibilities. Chinese transnationals are a key overlooked and underestimated piece in the current emissions-reduction puzzle because of their critical position at the intersection of values, behavior change, and nongovernmental institutions directly and indirectly involved in climatic-change mitigation. Given their special U.S./P.R.C. leverage, other actors concerned with building a sustainable-consumption movement and with climatic stabilization are likely to benefit from devoting increased attention and responsibilities to this group.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9036-8 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Koehn- Fitting-Linkage-Reduction-2006.pdf
F. KOGAN, T. ADAMENKO AND W. GUO (2013)
Global and regional drought dynamics in the climate warming era, Remote Sensing Letters, 4, 4, 364-372
This article investigates whether the highest global temperature during 2001-2012 triggered some changes in drought area, frequency, intensity and duration. New satellite-based vegetation health (VH) technology and regional in situ data were used for this analysis. The VH indices were used to investigate trends in global and regional drought area for several drought intensities (starting from moderate-to-exceptional (ME)) during the warmest decade, after 2000. Two of the most recent strongest droughts, 2010 in Russia and 2011 in the USA, are also discussed. During 2001-2012, droughts of ME, severe-to-exceptional (SE) and extreme-to-exceptional (EE) severity covered 17-35%, 7-15% and 2-6% of the total area of the world, respectively. No trends in drought areas for these levels of severity were found. Regional analysis was performed on Ukraine (from both satellite and in situ data). Annual mean temperature of the entire country follows global warming tendency, although the intensity is twice stronger, 1.45 degrees C over 50-year period. The droughts of SE and EE severity during the growing season normally affect 25-60% (up to 80% of the major crop area) and 5-10% (up to 20%) of the entire country, respectively, and the later leading up to 40% of losses in Ukrainian grain production.
P. KOHLER, R. BINTANJA, H. FISCHER, F. JOOS, R. KNUTTI, G. LOHMANN AND V. MASSON- DELMOTTE (2010) What caused Earth’s temperature variations during the last 800,000 years? Data-based evidence on radiative forcing and constraints on climate sensitivity, Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 1-2, 129-145
The temperature on Earth varied largely in the Pleistocene from cold glacials to interglacials of different warmths. To contribute to an understanding of the underlying causes of these changes we compile various environmental records (and model-based interpretations of some of them) in order to calculate the direct effect of various processes on Earth’s radiative budget and, thus, on global annual mean surface temperature over the last 800,000 years. The importance of orbital variations, of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O, of the albedo of land ice sheets, annual mean snow cover, sea ice area and vegetation, and of the radiative perturbation of mineral dust in the atmosphere are investigated. Altogether we can explain with these processes a global cooling of 3.9 +/- 0.8 K in the equilibrium temperature for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) directly from the radiative budget using only the Planck feedback that parameterises the direct effect on the radiative balance, but neglecting other feedbacks such as water vapour, cloud cover, and lapse rate. The unaccounted feedbacks and related uncertainties would, if taken at present day feedback strengths, decrease the global temperature at the LGM by -8.0 +/- 1.6 K. Increased Antarctic temperatures during the Marine Isotope Stages 5.5, 7.5, 9.3 and 11.3 are in our conceptual approach difficult to explain. If compared with other studies, such as PMIP2, this gives supporting evidence that the feedbacks themselves are not constant, but depend in their strength on the mean climate state. The best estimate and uncertainty for our reconstructed radiative forcing and LGM cooling Support a present day equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding the ice sheet and vegetation components) between 1.4 and 5.2 K, with a most likely value near 2.4 K, somewhat smaller than other methods but consistent with the consensus range of 2-4.5 K derived from other lines of evidence. Climate sensitivities above 6 K are difficult to reconcile with Last Glacial Maximum reconstructions. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
X.-Y. KOU, D. K. FERGUSON, J.-X. XU, Y.-F. WANG AND C. SEN (2006)
The Reconstruction of Paleovegetation and Paleoclimate in the Late Pliocene of West Yunnan, China, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 431-448
Abstract The Eryuan palynoflora from the Late Pliocene of western Yunnan, China is described in this paper, and is compared with two contemporary palynofloras from Yangyi and Longling. The palynological data of the three locations are analyzed to reconstruct the climatic parameters of these areas at that time by using the Coexistence Approach. The Late Pliocene climatic parameters of Eryuan are estimated, i.e., the mean annual temperature ranged from 13.3 to 18.6 C, the mean temperature of the warmest month from 24.6 to 27.5 C, the mean temperature of the coldest month from 1.9 to 12.1 C, the difference in temperatures of coldest and ∘ ∘ warmest month from 14.2 to 16.6 C, the mean annual precipitation from 619.9 to 1484.3 mm, the mean ∘ maximum monthly precipitation from 143.8 to 245.6 mm, and the mean minimum monthly precipitation from 12.7 ∘ to 16.4 mm. Both paleovegetation and paleoclimate of the three localities are compared with the modern data at each location. The present study suggests a MAT decrease accompanied by a doubling of the MAP in the Longling area between the Late Pliocene and the present. This seems to be related to the uplift of Gaoligong Mountain in Longling which is now part of the eastern portion (Western Yunnan) of the Tibetan Plateau. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9039-5 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Kou- Reconstruction-West-Yunnan-2006.pdf
S. KRAAN (2013)
Mass-cultivation of carbohydrate rich macroalgae, a possible solution for sustainable biofuel production, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18, 1, 27-46
Global demand for bio-fuels continues unabated. Rising concerns over environmental pollution and global warming have encouraged the movement to alternate fuels, the world ethanol market is projected to reach 86 billion litres this year. Bioethanol is currently produced from land-based crops such as corn and sugar cane. A continued use of these crops drives the food versus fuel debate. An alternate feed-stock which is abundant and carbohydrate-rich is necessary. The production of such a crop should be sustainable, and, reduce competition with production of food, feed, and industrial crops, and not be dependent on agricultural inputs (pesticides, fertilizer, farmable land, water). Marine biomass could meet these challenges, being an abundant and carbon neutral renewable resource with potential to reduce green house gas (GHG) emissions and the man-made impact on climate change. Here we examine the current cultivation technologies for marine biomass and the environmental and economic aspects of using brown seaweeds for bio-ethanol production.
L. M. KUEPPERS, P. BAER, J. HARTE, B. HAYA, L. E. KOTEEN AND M. E. SMITH (2004)
A decision matrix approach to evaluating the impacts of land-use activities undertaken to mitigate climate change - An editorial essay, Climatic Change, 63, 3, 247-257
Land-use activities that affect the global balance of greenhouse gases have been a topic of intense discussion during ongoing climate change treaty negotiations. Policy mechanisms that reward countries for implementing climatically beneficial land-use practices have been included in the Bonn and Marrakech agreements on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. However some still fear that land-use projects focused narrowly on carbon gain will result in socioeconomic and environmental harm, and thus conflict with the explicit sustainable development objectives of the agreement. We propose a policy tool, in the form of a multi-attribute decision matrix, which can be used to evaluate potential and completed land-use projects for their climate, environmental and socioeconomic impacts simultaneously. Project evaluation using this tool makes tradeoffs explicit and allows identification of projects with multiple co-benefits for promotion ahead of others. Combined with appropriate public participation, accounting, and verification policies, a land-use activity decision matrix can help ensure that progressive land management practices are an effective part of the solution to global climate change.
B. A. LAKEN, E. PALLE, D. R. KNIVETON, C. J. R. WILLIAMS AND D. A. KILHAM (2012)
Contrails developed under frontal influences of the North Atlantic, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 117, Satellite imagery reveals a visually striking pattern of persistent line-shaped contrails located to the Northwest of the British Isles on 1 September 2007, just before sunrise. These contrails formed over the heavily trafficked eastbound North Atlantic Track (NAT) flight paths, as they intersected an area of prefrontal mixing. The high relative humidity with respect to ice within the prefrontal mixing zone allowed the contrails to persist, while the strictly regulated flight paths over the region account for their remarkable shapes. The positioning of the NAT flight paths to take advantage of the jet stream likely maximized regional contrail formation. An estimation of the outgoing top of the atmosphere longwave (LW) flux from the CERES instrument shows that the contrails reduced the local instantaneous LW emissivity by 20.96 (+/-0.26) W/m(2). This example demonstrates that for middle latitude regions, prefrontal mixing is an important factor governing the radiative influence of contrails. However, a full estimation of the radiative impact is not possible, as we cannot specify the amount of shortwave forcing caused by the persistence of the contrails into daytime; moreover, several hours after formation the line-shaped contrails spread and overlapped with pre-existing cloud structures.
G. LANG (2006)
Late-glacial fluctuations of timberline in the Black Forest (SW Germany) A revised approach to a climatic reconstruction, Vegetation History and Archaeobotany, 15, 4, 373-375
Based on pollen diagrams from nine sites at altitudes between 654 and 1280 m a.s.l. the Late-glacial fluctuations of the timberline are reconstructed and interpreted in terms of summer temperature.
G. G. Laruelle, V. Roubeix, A. Sferratore, B. Brodherr, D. Ciuffa, D. J. Conley, H. H. Dürr, J. Garnier, C. Lancelot, Q. Le Thi Phuong, J. D. Meunier, M. Meybeck, P. Michalopoulos, B. Moriceau, S. Ní Longphuirt, S. Loucaides, L. Papush, M. Presti, O. Ragueneau, P. Regnier, L. Saccone, C. P. Slomp, C. Spiteri and P. Van Cappellen (2009)
Anthropogenic perturbations of the silicon cycle at the global scale: Key role of the land-ocean transition, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 23, 4, GB4031
Silicon (Si), in the form of dissolved silicate (DSi), is a key nutrient in marine and continental ecosystems. DSi is taken up by organisms to produce structural elements (e.g., shells and phytoliths) composed of amorphous biogenic silica (bSiO2). A global mass balance model of the biologically active part of the modern Si cycle is derived on the basis of a systematic review of existing data regarding terrestrial and oceanic production fluxes, reservoir sizes, and residence times for DSi and bSiO2. The model demonstrates the high sensitivity of biogeochemical Si cycling in the coastal zone to anthropogenic pressures, such as river damming and global temperature rise. As a result, further significant changes in the production and recycling of bSiO2 in the coastal zone are to be expected over the course of this century.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003267 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Laruelle- Anthropogenic-Perturbations-2009.pdf
M. G. LAWRENCE (2006)
The Geoengineering Dilemma: To Speak or not to Speak, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 245-248
Without Abstract
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9131-5 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Lawrence- Geoenginearing-Speak-2006.pdf
J.-M. Limousin, S. Rambal, J.-M. Ourcival, J. Rodríguez-Calcerrada, I. Pérez-Ramos, R. Rodríguez-Cortina, L. Misson and R. Joffre (2012)
Morphological and phenological shoot plasticity in a Mediterranean evergreen oak facing long-term increased drought, Oecologia, 169, 2, 565-577
Mediterranean trees must adjust their canopy leaf area to the unpredictable timing and severity of summer drought. The impact of increased drought on the canopy dynamics of the evergreen Quercus ilex was studied by measuring shoot growth, leaf production, litterfall, leafing phenology and leaf demography in a mature forest stand submitted to partial throughfall exclusion for 7 years. The leaf area index rapidly declined in the throughfall- exclusion plot and was 19% lower than in the control plot after 7 years of treatment. Consequently, leaf litterfall was significantly lower in the dry treatment. Such a decline in leaf area occurred through a change in branch allometry with a decreased number of ramifications produced and a reduction of the leaf area supported per unit sapwood area of the shoot (LA/SA). The leafing phenology was slightly delayed and the median leaf life span was slightly longer in the dry treatment. The canopy dynamics in both treatments were driven by water availability with a 1-year lag: leaf shedding and production were reduced following dry years; in contrast, leaf turnover was increased following wet years. The drought-induced decrease in leaf area, resulting from both plasticity in shoot development and slower leaf turnover, appeared to be a hydraulic adjustment to limit canopy transpiration and maintain leaf-specific hydraulic conductivity under drier conditions. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-2221-8 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Limousin- Morphological-Evergreen-Oak-2012.pdf
C. Lindqvist, S. C. Schuster, Y. Sun, S. L. Talbot, J. Qi, A. Ratan, L. P. Tomsho, L. Kasson, E. Zeyl, J. Aars, W. Miller, O. Ingolfsson, L. Bachmann and O. Wiig (2010)
Complete mitochondrial genome of a Pleistocene jawbone unveils the origin of polar bear, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 11, 5053-5057
D. B. LOBELL, W. SCHLENKER AND J. COSTA-ROBERTS (2011)
Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science, Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. Here, we show that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends for 1980–2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8% and 5.5%, respectively, compared to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, CO2 fertilization, and other factors.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2011/05/04/science.1204531.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Lobell-Climate-Trends-Crop-Prod-2011.pdf
C. LOEHLE AND N. SCAFETTA (2011)
Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 5, 74-86
The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the Hadley global temperature data up to 1950 (time period before anthropogenic emissions became the dominant forcing mechanism), and then extrapolated from 1951 to 2010. The residuals showed an approximate linear upward trend of about 0.66°C/century from 1942 to 2010. Herein we assume that this residual upward warming has been mostly induced by anthropogenic emissions, urbanization and land use change. The warming observed before 1942 is relatively small and is assumed to have been mostly naturally induced. The resulting full natural plus anthropogenic model fits the entire 160 year record very well. Residual analysis does not provide any evidence for a substantial cooling effect due to sulfate aerosols from 1940 to 1970. The cooling observed during that period may be due to a natural 60-year cycle, which is visible in the global temperature since 1850 and has been observed also in numerous multisecular climatic records. New solar activity proxy models are developed that suggest a mechanism for both the 60-year climate cycle and a portion of the long-term warming trend. Our results suggest that because current models underestimate the strength of natural multidecadal cycles in the temperature records, the anthropogenic contribution to climate change since 1850 should be less than half of that previously claimed by the IPCC. About 60% of the warming observed from 1970 to 2000 was very likely caused by the above natural 60-year climatic cycle during its warming phase. A 21st Century forecast suggests that climate may remain approximately steady until 2030-2040, and may at most warm 0.5-1.0°C by 2100 at the estimated 0.66°C/century anthropogenic warming rate, which is about 3.5 times smaller than the average 2.3°C/century anthropogenic warming rate projected by the IPCC up to the first decades of the 21st century. However, additional multisecular natural cycles may cool the climate further. http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Loehle-Climate-Change-2011.pdf AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Loehle-Global-Warming-Supplement-2011.pdf
B. LOMBORG (2002)
HOW HEALTHY IS THE WORLD?, BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 325, 7378, 1461-1464
We are often told that we are destroying our environment and that living conditions are deteriorating. The author of The Skeptical Environmentalist looks at global data and comes up with a more optimistic view.
B. LOMBORG (2004)
NEED FOR ECONOMISTS TO SET GLOBAL PRIORITIES, NATURE, 431, 7004, 17-17
B. LOMBORG AND O. RUBIN (2002)
LIMITS TO GROWTH, FOREIGN POLICY, 133, 42-44
B. LOMBORG AND O. RUBIN (2003)
LIMITS TO LOMBORG - REPLY, FOREIGN POLICY, 135, 14-14
A. LOURANTOU, J. CHAPPELLAZ, J. M. BARNOLA, V. MASSON-DELMOTTE AND D. RAYNAUD (2010) Changes in atmospheric CO(2) and its carbon isotopic ratio during the penultimate deglaciation, Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 17-18, 1983-1992
M. P. LUTHI AND M. FUNK (2001)
Modelling heat flow in a cold, high-altitude glacier: interpretation of measurements from Colle Gnifetti, Swiss Alps, Journal of Glaciology, 47, 157, 314-324
Modelling the heat flow in small, cold high-altitude glaciers is important for the interpretation of paleoclimatic data from ice cores. Coupled glacier-flow and heatflow models arc presented that incorporate the densification, heat advection and possible phase transitions at the permafrost boundaries within the bedrock. Marked bends observed in the temperature profiles from two recent boreholes on Colle Gnifetti, Swiss Alps, arc interpreted with the help of a transient heat-flow model, driven with a temperature history. The conclusion is that substantial warming of the mean firn temperature at shallow depths has taken place over the last few decades. This has not been observed before in cold-firn regions of the Alps. Modelled heat fluxes in the Monte Rosa massif arc strongly influenced by the mountain topography. This leads to a spatial variability of the temperature gradient near the glacier base which has been observed in boreholes to the bedrock. In order to match the measured temperature profiles in the glacier, the vertical heat flux at great depth must be set to an extremely low value. It is shown with the help of the transient heat-flow model that this is a paleoclimatic effect, possibly enhanced by a degrading permafrost base.
M. C. MACCRACKEN (2006)
GEOENGINEERING: WORTHY OF CAUTIOUS EVALUATION?, CLIMATIC CHANGE, 77, 3, 235- 243
Without Abstract
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9130-6 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/MacCracken-Geoengineering-Evaluation-2006.pdf
D. H. MANN (2010)
SCIENCE SUBPOENAED, NATURE, 465, 7295, 135-136 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/465135b AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Scientist-Subpoenad- Mann-2010.pdf
M. R. Manning, J. Edmonds, S. Emori, A. Grubler, K. Hibbard, F. Joos, M. Kainuma, R. F. Keeling, T. Kram, A. C. Manning, M. Meinshausen, R. Moss, N. Nakicenovic, K. Riahi, S. K. Rose, S. Smith, R. Swart and D. P. van Vuuren (2010)
MISREPRESENTATION OF THE IPCC CO2 EMISSION SCENARIOS, NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 3, 6, 376-377
O. Marchal, I. Cacho, T. F. Stocker, J. O. Grimalt, E. Calvo, B. Martrat, N. Shackleton, M. Vautravers, E. Cortijo, S. van Kreveld, C. Andersson, N. Koc, M. Chapman, L. Sbaffi, J. C. Duplessy, M. Sarnthein, J. L. Turon, J. Duprat and E. Jansen (2002)
Apparent long-term cooling of the sea surface in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean during the Holocene, Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, 4-6, 455-483
Reconstructions of upper ocean temperature (T) during the Holocene (10-0 ka B.P.) were established using the alkenone method from seven, high accumulation sediment cores raised from the northeast Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea (36degreesN-75degreesN), All these paleo-T records document an apparent long-term cooling during the last 10 kyr. In records with indication of a constant trend, the apparent cooling ranges From -0.27 to - 0.15degreesC kyr(-1). Records with indication of time-variable trend show peak-to-peak amplitudes in apparent temperatures of 1.2-2.9degreesC. A principal component analysis shows that there is one factor which accounts for a very large fraction (67%) of the total variance in the biomarker paleo-T records and which dominates these records over other potential secondary influences. Two possible contributions are (1) a widespread surface cooling, which may be associated with the transition from the Hypsithermal interval (similar to 9-5.7 ka B.P.) to the Neoglaciation (similar to 5.7-0 ka B.P.); and (2) a change in the seasonal timing and/or duration of the growth period of alkenone producers (prymnesiophyte algae). The first contribution is consistent with many climate proxy records from the northeast Atlantic area and with climate model simulations including Milankovitch forcing The second contribution is consistent with the divergence between biomarker and summer faunal paleo-T from early to late Holocene observed in two cores. Further work is necessary, and in particular the apparent discordance between biomarker and faunal T records for the relative stable Holocene period must be understood, to better constrain the climatic and ecological contributions to the apparent cooling observed in the former records. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
A. MARTINEZ-GARCIA, A. ROSELL-MELE, S. L. JACCARD, W. GEIBERT, D. M. SIGMAN AND G. H. HAUG (2011)
Southern Ocean dust-climate coupling over the past four million years, Nature, advance online publication, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature10310 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/martinez-garcia- southern-ocean-dust-2011.pdf AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/nature10310.html#supplementary-information
C. MARTIN-PUERTAS, B. L. VALERO-GARCES, A. BRAUER, M. P. MATA, A. DELGADO- HUERTAS AND P. DULSKI (2009)
The Iberian-Roman Humid Period (2600-1600 cal yr BP) in the Zonar Lake varve record (Andalucia, southern Spain), Quaternary Research, 71, 2, 108-120
The Iberian-Roman Humid Period (IRHP, 2600-1600 cal yr BP), is the most humid phase of the last 4000 yr in southern Spain as recorded in the sedimentary sequence of Zonar Lake (37 degrees 29’00 “ N, 4 degrees 41’22 “ W, 300 m a.s.l.). A varve chronology supported by several AMS C-14 dates allows study of the lake evolution at annual scale in response to human impact and climate changes. There are four climate phases within this period: i) gradual transition (2600-2500 yr ago. 650-550 BC) from a previous and period; ii) the most humid interval during the Iberian-Early Roman Epoch (2500-2140 yr ago, 550-190 BC) iii) an and interval during the Roman Empire Epoch (2140-1800 yr ago, 190 BC AD 150): and iv) a humid period synchronous with the decline of the Roman Empire (1800-1600 yr ago, AD 150-350). Varve thickness and geochemical proxies show a multi-decadal cyclicity similar to modern North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (60, 20 years) and solar variability cycles (11 yr). The timing and the structure of this humid period is similar to that described in Eastern Mediterranean and northern European sites and supports the same large-scale climate control for northern latitudes and the Mediterranean region. © 2008 University of Washington. All rights reserved.
S. MCINTYRE AND R. MCKITRICK (2003)
Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series, Energy & Environment, 14, 6, 751-771
The data set of proxies of past climate used in Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998, “MBH98” hereafter) for the estimation of temperatures from 1400 to 1980 contains collation errors, unjustifiable truncation or extrapolation of source data, obsolete data, geographical location errors, incorrect calculation of principal components and other quality control defects. We detail these errors and defects. We then apply MBH98 methodology to the construction of a Northern Hemisphere average temperature index for the 1400-1980 period, using corrected and updated source data. The major finding is that the values in the early 15th century exceed any values in the 20th century. The particular “hockey stick” shape derived in the MBH98 proxy construction – a temperature index that decreases slightly between the early 15th century and early 20th century and then increases dramatically up to 1980 — is primarily an artefact of poor data handling, obsolete data and incorrect calculation of principal components.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/095830503322793632 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/McIntyre- Corrections-Mann-Hockeystick-2003.pdf
W. J. MCKIBBIN, D. PEARCE AND A. STEGMAN (2007)
LONG TERM PROJECTIONS OF CARBON EMISSIONS, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 23, 4, 637-653
Future scenarios of climate change depend on the projections of greenhouse gas emissions, which are highly uncertain. A framework for projecting emissions should focus on the sources of economic growth and the changing structure of the global economy over time. It also requires an understanding of key historical and statistical issues, including the role of convergence assumptions and the appropriate basis of comparisons between countries. This paper presents a methodology developed using the G-Cubed multi-country model in which the economic structure and emissions outcomes are determined simultaneously. In order to illustrate the importance of the assumptions underlying the way these long term carbon projections are produced we also explore the debate around the “Castles and Henderson Critique” of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) regarding the use of Market Exchange Rates (MERs) rather than Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates (PPPs) for benchmarking income differentials in the world economy. We show that under one scenario, emission projections based on convergence assumptions defined in MER terms are 40% higher by 2100 than emission projections based on PPP comparisons of income differentials. While this result can not necessarily be generalized to all forecasting frameworks, the potential magnitude of the difference suggests that this is a significant issue for such projection efforts. © 2007 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
D. H. MEADOWS, D. I. MEADOWS, J. RANDERS, W. W. I. BEHRENS AND E. A. PESTEL (1972)
The Limits to Growth: A Report to The Club of Rome, Short Version, http://www.clubofrome.org/docs/limits.rtf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Meadows-Limits-to-Growth-Short-1972.pdf
G. A. MEEHL AND T. F. STOCKER (2007)
Global Climate Projections, Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC I. P. o. C. Change, IPPC, Soloman Susan, Qin Dahe, Manning Martin, Marqis Melinda, Averyt Kristen, T. M. M.B., Le Roy Miller Henry Jr. and Chen Zhenlin, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press; printed by Friesen, Canada, Edition 1 Pap/Cdr (10. September 2007) 70 Euro, ab 40 Euro, 747-843 https://www.ipcc.unibe.ch/publications/wg1-ar4/ar4-wg1-chapter10.pdf AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Meehl-Stocker-IPPC-WG1-Report-Chapter10-2007.pdf
G. A. MEEHL AND C. TEBALDI (2004)
More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 305, 5686, 994-997
A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.
G. A. Meehl, W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, A. X. Hu, H. Y. Teng, C. Tebaldi, B. N. Sanderson, J. F. Lamarque, A. Conley, W. G. Strand and J. B. White (2012)
Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4, Journal of Climate, 25, 11, 3661-3683
Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100-2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20 degrees C, and the transient climate response is 1.73 degrees C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986-2005 reference period for six- member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85 degrees, +1.64 degrees, +2.09 degrees, and +3.53 degrees C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almost no summer sea ice left in the Arctic in the high RCP8.5 scenario by 2100, but in the low RCP2.6 scenario there is substantial sea ice remaining in summer at the end of the century.
B. MESSERLI, H. J. ZUMBÜHL, K. AMMANN, H. KIENHOLZ, H. OESCHGER, C. PFISTER AND M. ZURBUCHEN (1975)
Die Schwankungen des Unteren Grindelwaldgletschers seit dem Mittelalter, ein interdisziplinaerer Beitrag zur Klimageschichte, Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie,, XI, 1, 1-24, (3-110) http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Messerli-Grindelwaldgl-1975.PDF
M. J. METZGER AND M. D. A. ROUNSEVELL (2011)
A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry PERSPECTIVE, Environmental Research Letters, 6, 3,
B. MEYSSIGNAC AND A. CAZENAVE (2012)
Sea level: A review of present-day and recent-past changes and variability, Journal of Geodynamics, 58, 96-109
In this review article, we summarize observations of sea level variations, globally and regionally, during the 20th century and the last 2 decades. Over these periods, the global mean sea level rose at rates of 1.7 mm/yr and 3.2 mm/yr respectively, as a result of both increase of ocean thermal expansion and land ice loss. The regional sea level variations, however, have been dominated by the thermal expansion factor over the last decades even though other factors like ocean salinity or the solid Earth’s response to the last deglaciation can have played a role. We also present examples of total local sea level variations that include the global mean rise, the regional variability and vertical crustal motions, focusing on the tropical Pacific islands. Finally we address the future evolution of the global mean sea level under ongoing warming climate and the associated regional variability. Expected impacts of future sea level rise are briefly presented. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
P. J. MICHAELS, P. C. KNAPPENBERGER AND C. LANDSEA (2005)
Comments on “impacts of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective scheme”, Journal of Climate, 18, 23, 5179-5182 In a simulation of enhanced tropical cyclones in a warmer world, Knutson and Tuleya make several assumptions that are not borne out in the real world. They include an unrealistically large carbon dioxide growth rate, an overly strong relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity, and the use of a mesoscale model that has shown little to no useful skill in predicting current-day hurricane intensity. After accounting for these inaccuracies, a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity in response to growing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels during this century becomes unlikely.
T. L. MILFONT (2012)
The Interplay Between Knowledge, Perceived Efficacy, and Concern About Global Warming and Climate Change: A One-Year Longitudinal Study, Risk Analysis, 32, 6, 1003-1020
If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed.
M. Miraglia, H. J. P. Marvin, G. A. Kleter, P. Battilani, C. Brera, E. Coni, F. Cubadda, L. Croci, B. De Santis, S. Dekkers, L. Filippi, R. W. A. Hutjes, M. Y. Noordam, M. Pisante, G. Piva, A. Prandini, L. Toti, G. J. van den Born and A. Vespermann (2009)
Climate change and food safety: An emerging issue with special focus on Europe, Food and Chemical Toxicology, 47, 5, 1009-1021
According to general consensus, the global climate is changing, which may also affect agricultural and livestock production. The potential impact of climate change on food security is a widely debated and investigated issue. Nonetheless, the specific impact on safety of food and feed for consumers has remained a less studied topic. This review therefore identifies the various food safety issues that are likely to be affected by changes in climate, particularly in Europe. Amongst the issues identified are mycotoxins formed on plant products in the field or during storage; residues of pesticides in plant products affected by changes in pest pressure; trace elements and/or heavy metals in plant products depending on changes in their abundance and availability in soils; polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in foods following changes in long-range atmospheric transport and deposition into the environment; marine biotoxins in seafood following production of phycotoxins by harmful algal blooms; and the presence of pathogenic bacteria in foods following more frequent extreme weather conditions, such as flooding and heat waves. Research topics that are amenable to further research are highlighted.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T6P-4VKDN09-1/2/26ae54bbf0f8fd60f823519f7e938016 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Miraglia-Climate-change-food-savety-EU--2009.pdf
M. I. Mishchenko, I. V. Geogdzhayev, W. B. Rossow, B. Cairns, B. E. Carlson, A. A. Lacis, L. Liu and L. D. Travis (2007)
Long-Term Satellite Record Reveals Likely Recent Aerosol Trend, Science %R 10.1126/science.1136709, 315, 5818, 1543-
Analysis of the long-term Global Aerosol Climatology Project data set reveals a likely decrease of the global optical thickness of tropospheric aerosols by as much as 0.03 during the period from 1991 to 2005. This recent trend mirrors the concurrent global increase in solar radiation fluxes at Earth’s surface and may have contributed to recent changes in surface climate.
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/1543 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Mishchenko-Aerosol-2007.pdf
C. MONNETT AND J. S. GLEASON (2006)
Observations of mortality associated with extended open-water swimming by polar bears in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, Polar Biology, 29, 8, 681-687
E. F. MORAN, R. ADAMS, B. BAKOYEMA, S. FIORINI AND B. BOUCEK (2006)
Human Strategies for Coping with El Niño Related Drought in Amazônia, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 343-361
Abstract This article reports on findings of a research project examining farmers’ coping strategies in the Brazilian Amazon in response to El Nio related weather events. We examine the extent of vulnerability of small and large farmers to these events in a tropical rainforest environment. Little attention has been given to the impact of ENSO events in Amaznia, despite evidence for devastating fires during ENSOs. Although we found a range of locally developed forecasting techniques and coping mechanisms, farmers have sustained significant losses, and we suggest that increased access to scientific forecasts would greatly enhance the ability of the farmers in our study area to cope with El Nio related weather events.In Amaznia the El Nio phase of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern leads to an extended period of reduced rainfall (Hobbs et al., 1998). This period of reduced rainfall can result in significant agricultural losses for farmers and ranchers in the area and in increased forest flammability. We have found that the majority of our study population uses several methods of forecasting, coping with, and adapting to drought events – and they recognize the economic losses they can experience and the loss of forests through the accidental spread of fire. The poorest farmers in our study area experience El Nio related drought events as a serious threat to their livelihoods. Their vulnerability is heightened during extreme climate events and our observations revealed that all of the farmers in our study would benefit from increased availability of improved forecast information relevant to their locality and their current farming strategies. This paper examines the availability and use of forecasts, the occurrence of accidental fires and techniques to prevent fire related losses, and the coping mechanisms for dealing with El Nio related drought in the agricultural regions surrounding the cities of Altamira and Santarm, in Par State, Brazil. Distribution of an El Nio Prediction Kit at the end of the study and a series of workshops may lead to better local information on rainfall variability and create a farmer-maintained grid of collecting stations to sensitize farmers to the variability of precipitation in the region, and on their property. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9035-9 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Moran- Human-Strategies-2006.pdf
N.-A. MÖRNER (2004)
ESTIMATING FUTURE SEA LEVEL CHANGES FROM PAST RECORDS, GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE, 40, 1-2, 49-54 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818103000973 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/moerner-estimating-future-level-past-2004.pdf
N.-A. MÖRNER (2008)
Comment on comment by Nerem et al. (2007) on “Estimating future sea level changes from past records” by Nils- Axel Mörner (2004), Global and Planetary Change, 62, 3-4, 219-220 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818108000313 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/moerner-comment-on-comment-2008.pdf
N.-A. MÖRNER (2010)
Solar Minima, Earth’s rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future: The North Atlantic-European case, Global and Planetary Change, 72, 4, 282-293 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811000010X AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/moerner-solar-minima-ice-ages-2010.pdf
N.-A. MÖRNER (2010)
Some problems in the reconstruction of mean sea level and its changes with time, Quaternary International, 221, 1-2, 3-8
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618210000224 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/moerner-some-problems-reconstruction-2010.pdf
N.-A. MÖRNER (2011)
Reply to Comment on: “Solar Minima, Earth’s rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future. The North Atlantic-European case” (Mörner, 2010) by R. Cheddadi and J. Guiot, Global and Planetary Change, 76, 3-4, 219- 219
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092181811100004X AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/moerner-reply-to-comment-solar-minima-2011.pdf
N. A. MORNER (2008)
Comment on comment by Nerem et al. (2007) on “Estimating future sea level changes from past records” by Nils- Axel Morner (2004), Global and Planetary Change, 62, 3-4, 219-220
N.-A. MÖRNER AND M. TOOLEY (2005)
Reply to the comment of P.S. Kench et al. on “New perspectives for the future of the Maldives” by N.A. Morner et al. [Global Planet. Change 40 (2004), 177-182], Global and Planetary Change, 47, 1, 70-71
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818104002127 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/moerner-reply-kench-2005.pdf
N.-A. MÖRNER, M. TOOLEY AND G. POSSNERT (2004)
NEW PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE OF THE MALDIVES, GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE, 40, 1-2, 177-182 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818103001085 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/moerner-new-perspectives-maledives-2004.pdf
MULLER ELISABETH (2012)
250 Years Global Warming: C02 and Volcanoes, Berkeley, USA, Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, http://berkeleyearth.org/pdf/berkeley-earth-press-release-july-29.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Muller-E-250-Years-Global-Warming-2012.pdf
R. A. MULLER AND G. J. MACDONALD (1997)
GLACIAL CYCLES AND ASTRONOMICAL FORCING, SCIENCE, 277, 5323, 215-218
Narrow spectral features in ocean sediment records offer strong evidence that the cycles of glaciation were driven by astronomical forces. Two million years ago, the cycles match the 41,000-year period of Earth’s obliquity. This supports the Croll/Milankovitch theory, which attributes the cycles to variations in insolation. But for the past million years, the spectrum is dominated by a single 100,000-year feature and is a poor match to the predictions of insolation models. The spectrum can be accounted for by a theory that derives the cycles of glaciation from variations in the inclination of Earth’s orbital plane.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/277/5323/215.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Muller-Glacial-Cycles-Astro-Forcing-1997.pdf
G. Myhre, N. Bellouin, T. F. Berglen, T. K. Berntsen, O. Boucher, A. Grini, I. S. A. Isaksen, M. Johnsrud, M. I. Mishchenko, F. Stordal and D. Tanre (2007)
Comparison of the radiative properties and direct radiative effect of aerosols from a global aerosol model and remote sensing data over ocean, Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 59, 1, 115-129
A global aerosol transport model (Oslo CTM2) with main aerosol components included is compared to five satellite retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and one data set of the satellite-derived radiative effect of aerosols. The model is driven with meteorological data for the period November 1996 to June 1997 which is the time period investigated in this study. The modelled AOD is within the range of the AOD from the various satellite retrievals over oceanic regions. The direct radiative effect of the aerosols as well as the atmospheric absorption by aerosols are in both cases found to be of the order of 20 Wm(-2) in certain regions in both the satellite-derived and the modelled estimates as a mean over the period studied. Satellite and model data exhibit similar patterns of aerosol optical depth, radiative effect of aerosols, and atmospheric absorption of the aerosols. Recently published results show that global aerosol models have a tendency to underestimate the magnitude of the clear-sky direct radiative effect of aerosols over ocean compared to satellite-derived estimates. However, this is only to a small extent the case with the Oslo CTM2. The global mean direct radiative effect of aerosols over ocean is modelled with the Oslo CTM2 to be -5.5 Wm(-2) and the atmospheric aerosol absorption 1.5 Wm(-2).
C. NEGRE, R. ZAHN, A. L. THOMAS, P. MASQUE, G. M. HENDERSON, G. MARTINEZ- MENDEZ, I. R. HALL AND J. L. MAS (2010)
Reversed flow of Atlantic deep water during the Last Glacial Maximum, Nature, 468, 7320, 84-88
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature09508 AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v468/n7320/abs/nature09508.html#supplementary-information AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Negre-Reversed-Flow-Atlantic-2010.pdf
G. Nelson, C., Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian, C. I. Gray, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz,, T. B. S. Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and a. L. You (2010)
Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options, IFPRI Research Monographs, IIPPRI, Washington DC, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 140
The first decade of the 21st century has seen several harbingers of a troubled future for global food security. The food price spike of 2008, with its consequent food riots and resulting political changes in several countries, awoke the world’s leaders to the re-emergence of this threat to human well-being and social harmony. The excessive heat and drought in Russia that led to the 2010 wildfires and grain embargo, as well as the unprecedented floods in Pakistan, signal more trouble ahead. But the warning signs could already be seen in the 1990s, as the long-term decline in the number of the world’s poor and hungry stalled, and those numbers began to rise. The seeds for these challenges, both for good and ill, were planted along with the Green Revolution crops in the mid-1960s. Dramatic increases in food production and land productivity led to complacency about the remaining challenges ahead, resulting in reduced public sector investments in agricultural productivity. Population numbers continue their march towards a likely 9 billion by 2050, while higher incomes in hitherto poor countries will lead to increased demand, which in turn puts additional pressures on sustainable food production.
To those already daunting challenges, climate change adds further pressure. Because food production is critically dependent on local temperature and precipitation conditions, any changes require farmers to adapt their practices, and this adaptation requires resources that could be used for other purposes. Farmers everywhere will need to adapt to climate change. For a few, the changes might ultimately be beneficial, but for many farmers our analysis points to major challenges to productivity and more difficulties in managing risk. The agricultural system as a whole will have difficulty supplying adequate quantities of food to maintain constant real prices. And the challenges extend further: to national governments, to provide the supporting policy and infrastructure environment; and to the global trading regime, to ensure that changes in comparative advantage translate into unimpeded trade flows to balance world supply and demand.
But how big are these challenges, who will be most affected, and what could policy makers do to facilitate adaptation? Providing answers to these questions is the task of this report. It builds on previous research, examining a wider range of plausible futures-economic, demographic, and climate-than has previously been analyzed. It also illustrates the key point that neither food security nor climate change should be viewed in isolation. It must be emphasized that combined biophysical-socioeconomic modeling of this detail and extent is still in its infancy. This document provides a status report on current research results. As with any large model- based analysis, the present study, while breaking new ground in the level of detail it incorporates in its agricultural- climate interactions, is obliged to use some simplifying assumptions and features, such as the partial equilibrium framework that underlies the results presented. Consequently, while the general directions deduced from this analysis are likely valid, the specific magnitudes should be treated with caution. Furthermore, for the first time, underlying parameters and more detailed results will be released on a website (www.ifpri.org/
each of these three overall scenarios are subjected to four plausible climate futures that range from slightly to substantially wetter and hotter on average than the current climate. We then compare these four climate futures with a fifth scenario, of perfect climate mitigation-that is, a continuation of today’s climate into the future. Three overall scenarios, under five climate scenarios, result in 15 perspectives on the future that encompass a wide range of plausible outcomes. Using the baseline scenario, we experiment with a variety of crop productivity enhancement simulations. Finally, we present the results of a simulation of an extended drought in South Asia-one likely outcome of climate change-to give some perspective on the effects of increased climate variability for one part of the world.
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-security-farming-and-climate-change-2050 AND http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/climatemonograph_advance.pdf and DOI 10.2499/9780896291867
M. NEW, D. LIVERMAN, H. SCHRODER AND K. ANDERSON (2011)
Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 6- 19
The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commits signatories to preventing ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’, leaving unspecified the level of global warming that is dangerous. In the late 1990s, a limit of 2°C global warming above preindustrial temperature was proposed as a ‘guard rail’ below which most of the dangerous climate impacts could be avoided. The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized the scientific view ‘that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius’ despite growing views that this might be too high. At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement have made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature rises of 3°C or 4°C within this century. Yet, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and consequences of a warming of 4°C or greater in a systematic manner. Papers in this themed issue provide an initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4°C or more, and the difficulties ahead if warming is to be limited to 2°C with any reasonable certainty. Across many sectors—coastal cities, agriculture, water stress, ecosystems, migration—the impacts and adaptation challenges at 4°C will be larger than at 2°C. In some cases, such as farming in sub-Saharan Africa, a +4°C warming could result in the collapse of systems or require transformational adaptation out of systems, as we understand them today. The potential severity of impacts and the behavioural, institutional, societal and economic challenges involved in coping with these impacts argue for renewed efforts to reduce emissions, using all available mechanisms, to minimize the chances of high-end climate change. Yet at the same time, there is a need for accelerated and focused research that improves understanding of how the climate system might behave under a +4°C warming, what the impacts of such changes might be and how best to adapt to what would be unprecedented changes in the world we live in. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/6.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/New-Four-Degrees-Beyond-Intro-2011.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/New- Four-Degrees-Beyond-2011.pdf
R. J. NICHOLLS, N. MARINOVA, J. A. LOWE, S. BROWN, P. VELLINGA, D. DE GUSMAO, J. HINKEL AND R. S. J. TOL (2011)
Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ˜beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 161-181
The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m—the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/161.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Nicholls-Sea-Level-Rise-Possible-Impacts-2011.pdf
G. W. NORTON AND B. LOMBORG (2007) How to spend $50 billion to make the world a better place, Agricultural Economics, 36, 1, 132-133
N. NOWACZYK, M. MELLES AND P. MINYUK (2007)
A revised age model for core PG1351 from Lake El’gygytgyn, Chukotka, based on magnetic susceptibility variations tuned to northern hemisphere insolation variations, Journal of Paleolimnology, 37, 1, 65-76
A combined analysis of magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon (TOC), biogenic silica (opal), and TiO 2 content of the 12.6 m long composite core PG1351 recovered from Lake El’gygytgyn, Chukotka Peninsula, indicate a clear response of the lacustrine sedimentary record to climate variations. The impact is not direct, but through variations in oxygenation of the bottom waters. Mixing of the water body is typical for warmer climates, whereas the development of a stratified water body associated with anoxic conditions at the lake floor appears during cold climates. Oxic conditions lead to a good magnetite preservation and thus to high magnetic susceptibilities, but also to a large-scale degradation of organic matter, as reflected by low TOC (total organic carbon) values. During anoxic conditions, magnetite is severely dissolved yielding very low susceptibility values, whereas organic matter is best preserved, reflected by high TOC values. Hence, in general, neither susceptibility reflects the lithogenic fraction, nor does TOC reflect bioproductivity in case of the studied El’gygytgyn sediments. Based on available infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating, the obtained susceptibility pattern of core PG1351 shows an obvious correlation to northern hemisphere insolation variations, with a dominating impact of the Earth’s 18 and 23 kyr precessional cycles for the upper half of PG1351, that is, during the past 150 ka. Therefore, the whole susceptibility record, together with biogenic silica (as a proxy for bioproductivity), TOC (as an indicator for redox conditions), and TiO 2 (as a proxy for lithogenic input), was systematically tuned to the northern hemisphere insolation yielding an age of about 250 ka for the base of the composite core. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10933-006-9023-8 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Nowaczyk- Revised-Age-Model-Chikotka-2007.pdf
G. O’BRIEN, A. T. DEVISSCHER, P. O’KEEFE AND I. TELLAM (2011)
The Adaptation Continuum: Groundwork for the Future, © 2009 ETC Foundation, P.O.Box 64, 3830 AB Leusden, The Netherlands, Lambert Academic Publishing, Germany, 359
http://filestore.wikiadapt.org/NCAP/NCAP_Webview.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Devisher-Adaptation-Continuum-2011.pdf
L. L. PAN, S. H. CHEN, D. CAYAN, M. Y. LIN, Q. HART, M. H. ZHANG, Y. B. LIU AND J. Z. WANG (2011) Influences of climate change on California and Nevada regions revealed by a high-resolution dynamical downscaling study, Climate Dynamics, 37, 9-10, 2005-2020
In this study, the influence of climate change to California and Nevada regions was investigated through high- resolution (4-km grid spacing) dynamical downscaling using the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model. The dynamical downscaling was performed to both the GFS (Global forecast model) reanalysis (called GFS-WRF runs) from 2000-2006 and PCM (Parallel Climate Model) simulations (called PCM-WRF runs) from 1997-2006 and 2047- 2056. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing current model outputs with the observational analysis PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) dataset. In general, the dominant features from GFS-WRF runs and PCM-WRF runs were consistent with each other, as well as with PRISM results. The influences of climate change on the California and Nevada regions can be inferred from the model future runs. The averaged temperature showed a positive trend in the future, as in other studies. The temperature increases by around 1-2A degrees C under the assumption of business as usual over 50 years. This leads to an upward shifting of the freezing level (the contour line of 0A degrees C temperature) and more rain instead of snow in winter (December, January, and February). More hot days (> 32.2A degrees C or 90A degrees F) and extreme hot days (> 37.8A degrees C or 100A degrees F) are predicted in the Sacramento Valley and the southern parts of California and Nevada during summer (June, July, and August). More precipitation is predicted in northern California but not in southern California. Rainfall frequency slightly increases in the coast regions, but not in the inland area. No obvious trend of the surface wind was indicated. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of daily temperature, wind and precipitation for California and Nevada showed no significant change in shape in either winter or summer. The spatial distributions of precipitation frequency from GFS-WRF and PCM-WRF were highly correlated (r = 0.83). However, overall positive shifts were seen in the temperature field; increases of 2A degrees C for California and 3A degrees C for Nevada in summer and 2.5A degrees C for California and 1.5A degrees C for Nevada in winter. The PDFs predicted higher precipitation in winter and lower precipitation in the summer for both California and Nevada.
C. PARMESAN, C. DUARTE, E. POLOCZANSKA, A. J. RICHARDSON AND M. C. SINGER (2011)
OVERSTRETCHING ATTRIBUTION, NATURE CLIM. CHANGE, 1, 1, 2-4
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1056 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Parmesan- Overstretching-Atribution-2011.pdf
F. Parrenin, J. R. Petit, V. Masson-Delmotte, E. Wolff, I. Basile-Doelsch, J. Jouzel, V. Lipenkov, S. O. Rasmussen, J. Schwander, M. Severi, R. Udisti, D. Veres and B. M. Vinther (2012)
Volcanic synchronisation between the EPICA Dome C and Vostok ice cores (Antarctica) 0-145 kyr BP, Climate of the Past, 8, 3, 1031-1045
This study aims at refining the synchronisation between the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Vostok ice cores in the time interval 0-145 kyr BP by using the volcanic signatures. 102 common volcanic events were identified by using continuous electrical conductivity (ECM), di-electrical profiling (DEP) and sulfate measurements while trying to minimize the distortion of the glaciological chronologies. This is an update and a continuation of previous works performed over the 0-45 kyr interval that provided 56 tie points to the ice core chronologies (Udisti et al., 2004). This synchronisation will serve to establish Antarctic Ice Core Chronology 2012, the next synchronised Antarctic dating. A change of slope in the EDC-depth/Vostok-depth diagram is probably related to a change of accumulation regime as well as to a change of ice thickness upstream of the Lake Vostok, but we did not invoke any significant temporal change of surface accumulation at EDC relative to Vostok. No significant phase difference is detected between the EDC and Vostok isotopic records, but depth shifts between the Vostok 3G and 5G ice cores prevent from looking at this problem accurately. Three possible candidates for the Toba volcanic super-eruption similar to 73 kyr ago are suggested in the Vostok and EDC volcanic records. Neither the ECM, DEP nor the sulfate fingerprints for these 3 events are significantly larger than many others in the records.
E. C. M. PARSONS AND L. A. CORNICK (2011)
Sweeping scientific data under a polar bear skin rug: The IUCN and the proposed listing of polar bears under CITES Appendix I, Marine Policy, 35, 5, 729-731
O. PAUN, R. M. BATEMAN, M. F. FAY, M. HEDREN, L. CIVEYREL AND M. W. CHASE (2010)
Stable epigenetic effects impact adaptation in allopolyploid orchids (Dactylorhiza: Orchidaceae), Mol Biol Evol, msq150
Epigenetic information includes heritable signals that modulate gene expression but are not encoded in the primary nucleotide sequence. We have studied natural epigenetic variation in three allotetraploid sibling orchid species (Dactylorhiza majalis s.str, D. traunsteineri s.l. and D. ebudensis) that differ radically in geography/ecology. The epigenetic variation released by genome doubling has been restructured in species-specific patterns that reflect their recent evolutionary history, and have an impact on their ecology and evolution, hundreds of generations after their formation. Using two contrasting approaches that yielded largely congruent results, epigenome scans pinpointed epiloci under divergent selection that correlate with eco-environmental variables, mainly related to water availability and temperature. The stable epigenetic divergence in this group is largely responsible for persistent ecological differences, which then set the stage for species-specific genetic patterns to accumulate in response to further selection and/or drift. Our results strongly suggest a need to expand our current evolutionary framework to encompass a complementary epigenetic dimension when seeking to understand population processes that drive phenotypic evolution and adaptation. http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/msq150v1 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Paun-Stable-Epigenetics-Dactylorhiza-2010.pdf
T. PEREIRA (2012)
The transition to a sustainable society: a new social contract, Environment Development and Sustainability, 14, 2, 273-281
This paper explores issues that are central to ecological economics. In spite of a substantial body of research and other literature that has appeared in recent decades on transition, and countless other efforts, no progress has been made to halt the increase in global warming, global emissions, rampant population growth, or several hundred other critical planet sustainability indicators including global species extinction. The opposite is true. Consumption has escalated and it is poised to double and, with it, planetary decay has followed closely. The aim of this work is to introduce a pragmatic solution and the economics mechanisms solidly rooted in science, in the laws of conservation of mass and energy, and in environmental and ecological sustainability that are necessary to overcome the tremendous forces of social, political, and economic resistance to major change. To advance towards a sustainable civilization, adopting a holistic approach with those underlying principles in all aspects of human activity, among others economy, finance, industry, commerce, engineering, politics, architecture, and education, is both lacking and fundamentally required. A short review of the state-of-the-art of the science on the critical status of the planet’s resources and its life-supporting systems is presented, as well as a brief catalog of the seminal works of the science that gave rise to its metrics and established early on the groundwork for the understanding of the degree of sustainability of the planet. We present the argument why past and current schemes of human economics, organization, culture, and politics cannot achieve anything else, but complete and utter failure under their own underlying precepts. A rigorous and disciplined process on how to overcome and avoid the precipitous decline and collapse of the environmental and planetary biosystems on which all life depends, including human life, and a new view towards the world and the universe we all have no choice but to live in, are also offered.
T. C. Peterson, M. O. Baringer, P. W. Thorne, M. J. Menne, J. J. Kennedy, J. Christy, D. Seidel, C. Mears, L. Haimberger, J. Wang, L. Zhang, D. H. Levinson, K. A. Hilburn, M. C. Kruk, D. A. Robinson, M. J. Foster, S. A. Ackerman, R. Bennartz, A. K. Heidinger, B. C. Maddux, W. B. Rossow, A. M. Macdonald, B. M. Fekete, L. C. Bowling, R. B. Lammers, R. Lawford, R. Allan, T. Wong, P. W. Stackhouse, Jr., D. P. Kratz, A. C. Wilber, R. C. Schnell, E. J. Dlugokencky, S. A. Montzka, J. W. Elkins, G. S. Dutton, J. Haywood, N. Bellouin, A. Jones, M. Weber, M. S. Pelto, A. S. Belward, E. Bartholome, F. Achard, A. B. Brink, N. Gobron, J. M. Levy, Y. Xue, R. W. Reynolds, G. C. Johnson, J. M. Lyman, J. K. Willis, S. Levitus, T. Boyer, J. Antonov, C. Schmid, G. J. Goni, L. Yu, R. A. Weller, J. A. Knaff, R. Lumpkin, G. Goni, K. Dohan, C. S. Meinen, T. O. Kanzow, S. A. Cunningham, W. E. Johns, L. M. Beal, J. J. M. Hirschi, D. Rayner, H. R. Longworth, H. L. Bryden, J. Marotzke, M. A. Merrifield, R. S. Nerem, G. T. Mitchum, L. Miller, E. Leuliette, S. Gill, R. A. Feely, C. L. Sabine, R. Wanninkhof, T. Takahashi, M. J. Behrenfeld, D. A. Siegel, R. T. O’Malley, S. Maritorena, A. G. Dickson, H. J. Diamond, M. L’Heureux, G. Bell, M. Halpert, G. D. Bell, E. Blake, S. B. Goldenberg, T. Kimberlain, C. W. Landsea, R. Pasch, J. Schemm, J. Weyman, S. J. Camargo, K. L. Gleason, M. J. Salinger, B. Trewin, A. B. Watkins, J. J. Luo, J. Richter-Menge, J. Overland, M. Wang, J. Walsh, D. K. Perovich, W. Meier, S. V. Nghiem, D. A. Walker, U. S. Bhatt, M. K. Raynolds, J. E. Comiso, H. E. Epstein, G. J. Jia, V. Romanovsky, N. Oberman, D. Drozdov, G. Malkova, A. Kholodov, S. Marchenko, C. Derksen, R. Brown, L. Wang, M. Sharp, G. Wolken, J. E. Box, L. S. Bai, R. Benson, I. Bhattacharya, D. H. Bromwich, J. Cappelen, D. Decker, N. DiGirolamo, X. Fettweis, D. Hall, E. Hanna, T. Mote, M. Tedesco, R. van de Wal, M. van den Broeke, R. L. Fogt, T. A. Scambos, S. Barreira, S. Colwell, J. Turner, H. Liu, R. A. Massom, P. Reid, S. Stammerjohn, P. A. Newman, L. A. Vincent, S. E. Stephens, R. R. Heim, Jr., C. Fenimore, M. Shulski, R. A. Ballard, V. Davydova-Belitskaya, F. Romero- Cruz, C. Fonseca, R. Perez, B. Lapinel, V. Cutie, I. Gonzales, D. Boudet, M. Hernandez, T. S. Stephenson, M. A. Taylor, J. M. Spence, S. Rossi, J. P. Cupo, R. Martinez, D. Pabon, G. Leon, E. Jaimes, A. Quintero, A. Mascarenhas, J. A. Marengo, J. Baez, J. Ronchail, P. Aceituno, M. Bidegain, J. Quintana, M. Skansi, M. Rusticucci, K. Kabidi, A. Sayouri, R. Sebbari, S. Attaher, A. Khalil, M. Medany, L. N. Njau, M. A. Bell, W. M. Thiaw, B. Osman-Elasha, C. Oludhe, L. Ogallo, A. Mhanda, W. Z. C. Mutasa, M. S. Gamedze, A. Kruger, C. McBride, A. Obregon, P. Bissolli, D. E. Parker, R. M. Trigo, D. Barriopedro, O. N. Bulygina, N. N. Korshunova, V. N. Razuvaev, Y. Guo, Y. Sakai, S. Zhao, X. Wang, H. Lee, M. Rajeevan, J. Revadekar, M. Rogers, M. Khoshkam, F. Rahimzadeh, B. C. Trewin, S. McGree, C. Guard and M. A. Lander (2009)
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2008, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 90, 8, S13-+
N. PIDGEON AND B. FISCHHOFF (2011)
The role of social and decision sciences in communicating uncertain climate risks, Nature Clim. Change, 1, 1, 35-41
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1080 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Pidgeon-Role- Social-Decision-Sciences-2011.pdf
R. PIELKE, C. LANDSEA, M. MAYFIELD, J. LAVER AND R. PASCH (2006)
Reply to “ Hurricanes and global warming - Potential linkages and consequences “, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 5, 628-631
R. A. PIELKE, C. LANDSEA, M. MAYFIELD, J. LAVER AND R. PASCH (2005)
HURRICANES AND GLOBAL WARMING, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 86, 11, 1571-+ This paper reviews recent research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the perspective of event risk-the physical behavior of storms; vulnerability-the characteristics of a system that create the potential for impacts, but are independent of event risk; and also outcome risk-the integration of considerations of vulnerability with event risk to characterize an event that causes losses. The paper concludes that with no trend identified in various metrics of hurricane damage over the twentieth century, it is exceedingly unlikely ‘that scientists will identify large changes in historical storm behavior that have significant societal implications, though scientists may identify discernible changes in storm behavior. Looking to the future, until scientists conclude a) that there will be changes to storms that are significantly larger than observed in the past, b) that such changes are correlated to measures of societal impact, and c) that the effects of such changes are significant in the context of inexorable growth in population and property at risk, then it is reasonable to conclude that the significance of any connection of human- caused climate change to hurricane impacts necessarily has been and will continue to be exceedingly small.
S. L. PIMM (2009)
CLIMATE DISRUPTION AND BIODIVERSITY, CURRENT BIOLOGY, 19, 14, R595-R601
[‘]Global warming’ may be a familiar term, but it is seriously misleading. Human actions are causing a massive disruption to the planet’s climate that is severe, rapid, very variable over space and time, and highly complex. The biosphere itself is complex and its responses to even simple changes are difficult to predict in detail. One can likely only be certain that many changes will be unexpected and some unfortunate. Even the simple, slow warming of the climate will produce complex consequences to species numbers and distributions because of how species depend on each other. An alternative approach to worrying about details is to concentrate on understanding the most significant ecological changes, ones that are irreversible—so-called [‘]tipping points’. Once such a point has been passed, even if society managed to restore historical climatic conditions, it might not restore the historical ecological patterns. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the loss of species, for we cannot recreate them. Climate disruptions may cause the loss of a large fraction of the planet’s biodiversity, even if the only mechanism were to be species ranges moving uphill as temperatures rise.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982209011907 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Pimm-Disruption-Biodiversity-2009.pdf
G. K. Plattner, R. Knutti, F. Joos, T. F. Stocker, W. von Bloh, V. Brovkin, D. Cameron, E. Driesschaert, S. Dutkiewicz, M. Eby, N. R. Edwards, T. Fichefet, J. C. Hargreaves, C. D. Jones, M. F. Loutre, H. D. Matthews, A. Mouchet, S. A. Muller, S. Nawrath, A. Price, A. Sokolov, K. M. Strassmann and A. J. Weaver (2008)
Long-term climate commitments projected with climate-carbon cycle models, Journal of Climate, 21, 12, 2721- 2751
Eight earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) are used to project climate change commitments for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Simulations are run until the year 3000 A. D. and extend substantially farther into the future than conceptually similar simulations with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) coupled to carbon cycle models. In this paper the following are investigated: 1) the climate change commitment in response to stabilized greenhouse gases and stabilized total radiative forcing, 2) the climate change commitment in response to earlier CO2 emissions, and 3) emission trajectories for profiles leading to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and their uncertainties due to carbon cycle processes. Results over the twenty-first century compare reasonably well with results from AOGCMs, and the suite of EMICs proves well suited to complement more complex models. Substantial climate change commitments for sea level rise and global mean surface temperature increase after a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases and radiative forcing in the year 2100 are identified. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.6-1.6 K for the low-CO2 IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario and 1.3- 2.2 K for the high-CO2 SRES A2 scenario. Correspondingly, the post-2100 thermal expansion commitment is 0.3-1.1 m for SRES B1 and 0.5-2.2 m for SRES A2. Sea level continues to rise due to thermal expansion for several centuries after CO2 stabilization. In contrast, surface temperature changes slow down after a century. The meridional overturning circulation is weakened in all EMICs, but recovers to nearly initial values in all but one of the models after centuries for the scenarios considered. Emissions during the twenty-first century continue to impact atmospheric CO2 and climate even at year 3000. All models find that most of the anthropogenic carbon emissions are eventually taken up by the ocean (49%-62%) in year 3000, and that a substantial fraction (15%-28%) is still airborne even 900 yr after carbon emissions have ceased. Future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and climate change requires a substantial reduction of CO2 emissions below present levels in all EMICs. This reduction needs to be substantially larger if carbon cycle-climate feedbacks are accounted for or if terrestrial CO2 fertilization is not operating. Large differences among EMICs are identified in both the response to increasing atmospheric CO2 and the response to climate change. This highlights the need for improved representations of carbon cycle processes in these models apart from the sensitivity to climate change. Sensitivity simulations with one single EMIC indicate that both carbon cycle and climate sensitivity related uncertainties on projected allowable emissions are substantial.
P. J. POLISSAR, M. B. ABBOTT, A. P. WOLFE, M. BEZADA, V. RULL AND R. S. BRADLEY (2006)
Solar modulation of Little Ice Age climate in the tropical Andes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 103, 24, 8937-8942
The underlying causes of late-Holocene climate variability in the tropics are incompletely understood. Here we report a 1,500-year reconstruction of climate history and glaciation in the Venezuelan Andes using lake sediments. Four glacial advances occurred between (A.D.) 1250 and 1810, coincident with solar-activity minima. Temperature declines of −3.2 ± 1.4°C and precipitation increases of ≈20% are required to produce the observed glacial responses. These results highlight the sensitivity of high-altitude tropical regions to relatively small changes in radiative forcing, implying even greater probable responses to future anthropogenic forcing. http://www.pnas.org/content/103/24/8937.abstract AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Polissar-Solar-Modulation-Litte-Ice-Age-2006.pdf
D. POPP (2006)
R&D Subsidies and Climate Policy: Is There a “Free Lunch”?, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 311-341
Abstract Because of the long-term nature of the climate problem, technological advances are often seen as an important component of any solution. However, when considering the potential for technology to help solve the climate problem, two market failures exist which lead to underinvestment in climate-friendly R&D: environmental externalities and the public goods nature of new knowledge. As a result, government subsidies to climate-friendly R&D projects are often proposed as part of a policy solution. Using the ENTICE model, I analyze the effectiveness of such subsidies, both with and without other climate policies, such as a carbon tax. While R&D subsidies do lead to significant increases in climate-friendly R&D, this R&D has little impact on the climate itself. Subsidies address the problem of knowledge as a public good, but they do not address the environmental externality, and thus offer no additional incentive to adopt new technologies. Moreover, high opportunity costs to R&D limit the potential role that subsidies can play. While R&D subsidies can improve efficiency, policies that directly affect the environmental externality have a much larger impact on both atmospheric temperature and economic welfare.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9056-z AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Popp- Subsidies-freelunch-2006.pdf
E. Post, M. C. Forchhammer, M. S. Bret-Harte, T. V. Callaghan, T. R. Christensen, B. Elberling, A. D. Fox, O. Gilg, D. S. Hik, T. T. Hoye, R. A. Ims, E. Jeppesen, D. R. Klein, J. Madsen, A. D. McGuire, S. Rysgaard, D. E. Schindler, I. Stirling, M. P. Tamstorf, N. J. C. Tyler, R. van der Wal, J. Welker, P. A. Wookey, N. M. Schmidt and P. Aastrup (2009)
Ecological Dynamics Across the Arctic Associated with Recent Climate Change, Science, 325, 5946, 1355-1358
At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.
P. PRINGLE AND D. CONWAY (2012)
Voices from the frontline: the role of community-generated information in delivering climate adaptation and development objectives at project level, Climate and Development, 1-10
This paper examines the challenges and opportunities for Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) to integrate climate change adaptation into development projects, focusing on the potential contribution of community- generated information. The research, undertaken with agricultural NGO FARM-Africa, centres upon subsistence farming communities in the Kenyan Districts of Mwingi and Kitui, where a succession of droughts has blighted agricultural production in recent years. Discussions with FARM-Africa staff highlight how recent climate variability and possibly climate change, is already affecting project-level operations. In particular, the interaction between the secondary impacts of climate hazards and livelihood responses presents a challenge to local staff as there is no obvious means of reflecting the complexity of local experiences and impacts within project planning processes. In response, drawing upon discussions with Farmer Groups, a matrix for each community was developed comprising environmental, social and agro-economic hazard (drought) consequence indicators and corresponding measures under ?extreme?, ?severe? and ?moderate? scenarios. This paper concludes that a structured approach to gathering locally held knowledge on the consequences of climate hazards appears to present a potentially valuable means of exploring the complex web of interactions between climate, livelihoods and vulnerability. Such community-generated information can be used to inform future project planning and community decision making, increasing the likelihood of achieving locally appropriate adaptation outcomes. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2012.707608 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Pringle- Voices-Frontline-2012.pdf
L. PUSTILNIK AND G. DIN (2004)
Space Climate Manifestation in Earth Prices – from Medieval England up to Modern U.S.A, Solar Physics, 224, 1, 473-481
In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that includes several nonlinear transition elements. These nonlinear elements are characterized by threshold sensitivity to external parameters and lead to very inhomogeneous local sensitivity of the price to space weather conditions. It is noted that soft type models are the most adequate for description of this class of connections. Two main observational effects suitable for testing causal connections of this type of sensitivity are considered: burst- like price reactions on changes in solar activity and price asymmetry for selected phases of the sunspot cycle. The connection, discovered earlier for wheat prices of Medieval England, is examined in this work on the basis of another 700-year data set of consumable prices in England. Using the same technique as in the previous part of our work (Pustilnik and Yom Din, 2004) we show that statistical parameters of the interval distributions for price bursts of consumable basket and for sunspot minimum states are similar to one another, as was reported earlier for wheat price bursts. Possible sources of these consistencies between three different multiyear samples are discussed. For a search of possible manifestations of the ‘space weather -wheat market’ connection in modern time, we analyze dynamics of wheat prices in the U.S.A. in the twentieth century. We show that the wheat prices revealed a maximum/minimum price asymmetry consistent with the phases of the sunspot cycle. We discuss possible explanations of this observed asymmetry, unexpected under conditions of globalization of the modern wheat market.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-5198-9 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Pustilnik- Influence-Solar-Market-2004.pdf
N. QUENTAL AND J. M. LOURENCO (2012)
References, authors, journals and scientific disciplines underlying the sustainable development literature: a citation analysis, Scientometrics, 90, 2, 361-381
This paper identifies the main references, authors and journals influencing the sustainable development literature. The task is accomplished by means of a citation analysis based on the records of ISI Web of Science. We found that the core of sustainability thinking is framed by a pattern of landmark studies published around every 5 years. Only 380 publications have been cited at least ten times. References with the highest influence are those with a global dimension and large diffusion, such as Brundtland Commission’s “Our common future” (1987) and classics such as Meadows’ et al. “Limits to growth” (1972). The list of the most influential references over the period 1960-2005 is dominated by contributions from economics (particularly ecological economics) and environmental science, but includes many other disciplines such as urban planning, political sciences and sociology. References are also made to policy documents such as “Agenda 21”, one of the main outcomes of the Rio Summit in 1992. In analyzing citation trends, we found that classics, because of their high rates of citations per year, seem to have a more enduring and stable influence.
J. RANDERS (2010)
What was the message of the Limits to Growth? What did this little book from 1972 really say about the global future?, C. o. Rome, 12
http://connect.clubofrome.org/ecms/files/resources/What_was_the_message_of_Limits_to_Growth.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Randers-What-Was-Message-Limits-5th-2010.pdf
P. A. RICHARD AND G. L. BEATE (2011)
Anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle, Environmental Research Letters, 5, 2, 025201
The atmospheric branch of the water cycle, although containing just a tiny fraction of the Earth’s total water reserves, presents a crucial interface between the physical climate (such as large-scale rainfall patterns) and the ecosystems upon which human societies ultimately depend. Because of the central importance of water in the Earth system, the question of how the water cycle is changing, and how it may alter in future as a result of anthropogenic changes, present one of the greatest challenges of this century. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on Climate Change and Water (Bates et al 2008) highlighted the increasingly strong evidence of change in the global water cycle and associated environmental consequences. It is of critical importance to climate prediction and adaptation strategies that key processes in the atmospheric water cycle are precisely understood and determined, from evaporation at the surface of the ocean, transport by the atmosphere, condensation as cloud and eventual precipitation, and run-off through rivers following interaction with the land surface, sub-surface, ice, snow and vegetation. The purpose of this special focus issue of Environmental Research Letters on anticipated changes in the global atmospheric water cycle is to consolidate the recent substantial advances in understanding past, present and future changes in the global water cycle through evidence built upon theoretical understanding, backed up by observations and borne out by climate model simulations. Thermodynamic rises in water vapour provide a central constraint, as discussed in a guest editorial by Bengtsson (2010). Theoretical implications of the Clausius–Clapeyron equation are presented by O’Gorman and Muller (2010) and with reference to a simple model (Sherwood 2010) while observed humidity changes confirm these anticipated responses at the land and ocean surface (Willett et al 2008). Rises in low-level moisture are thought to fuel an intensification of precipitation (O’Gorman and Schneider 2009) and analysis of observed and simulated changes in extreme rainfall for Europe (Lenderink and van Mijgaard 2008) and over tropical oceans by Allan et al (2010) appear to corroborate this. Radiative absorption by water vapour (Previdi 2010, Stephens and Ellis 2008) also provides a thermodynamic feedback on the water cycle, and explains why climate model projections of global precipitation and evaporation of around 1–3% K -1 are muted with respect to the expected 7% K -1 increases in low-level moisture. Climate models achieve dynamical responses through reductions in strength of the Walker circulation (Vecchi et al 2006) and small yet systematic changes in the atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean that modify evaporation (Richter and Xie 2008). A further consequence is anticipated sub-tropical drying (Neelin et al 2006, Chou et al 2007); Allan et al (2010) confirm a decline in dry sub-tropical precipitation while the wet regions become wetter both in model simulations and satellite-based observations. Discrepancies between observed and climate model simulated hydrological response to warming (Wentz et al 2007, Yu and Weller 2007) are of immediate concern in understanding and predicting future responses. Over decadal time-scales it is important to establish whether such discrepancies relate to the observing system, climate modeling deficiencies, or are a statistical artifact of the brevity of the satellite records (Liepert and Previdi 2009). Techniques for extracting information on century-scale changes in precipitation are emerging (Smith et al 2009) but are also subject to severe limitations. Past decadal-scale changes in the water cycle may be further influenced by regionally and temporally varying forcings and resulting feedbacks which must be represented realistically by models (Andrews et al 2009). The radiative impact of aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds and precipitation (Liepert et al 2004) provide an important example. Understanding surface solar ‘dimming’ and ‘brightening’ trends in the context of past and current changes in the water cycle are discussed in a guest editorial by Wild and Liepert (2010). The key roles anthropogenic aerosols can play on a regional scale are discussed by Lau et al (2010) through their study of the regional impact of absorbing aerosols on warming and snow melt over the Himalayas. The overarching goal of climate prediction is to provide reliable, probabilistic estimates of future changes. Relating hydrological responses back to a sound physical basis, the motivation for this special focus issue, is paramount in building confidence in anticipated changes, especially in the global water cycle. We are grateful to the reviewers and the journal editorial board for making this focus issue possible. Focus on Anticipated Changes in the Global Atmospheric Water Cycle Contents Editorials The global atmospheric water cycle [/1748-9326/5/2/025202] Lennart Bengtsson The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle [/1748-9326/5/2/025203] Martin Wild and Beate Liepert Letters Enhanced surface warming and accelerated snow melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau induced by absorbing aerosols [/1748-9326/5/2/025204] William K M Lau, Maeng-Ki Kim, Kyu-Myong Kim and Woo-Seop Lee Current changes in tropical precipitation [/1748-9326/5/2/025205] Richard P Allan, Brian J Soden, Viju O John, William Ingram and Peter Good Direct versus indirect effects of tropospheric humidity changes on the hydrologic cycle [/1748-9326/5/2/025206] S C Sherwood How closely do changes in surface and column water vapor follow Clausius–Clapeyron scaling in climate change simulations? [/1748-9326/5/2/025207] P A O’Gorman and C J Muller Linking increases in hourly precipitation extremes to atmospheric temperature and moisture changes [/1748-9326/5/2/025208] Geert Lenderink and Erik van Meijgaard Are climate-related changes to the character of global-mean precipitation predictable? [/1748-9326/5/2/025209] Graeme L Stephens and Yongxiang Hu A comparison of large scale changes in surface humidity over land in observations and CMIP3 general circulation models [/1748-9326/5/2/025210] Katharine M Willett, Philip D Jones, Peter W Thorne and Nathan P Gillett Radiative feedbacks on global precipitation [/1748-9326/5/2/025211] Michael Previdi The transient response of global-mean precipitation to increasing carbon dioxide levels [/1748-9326/5/2/025212] Timothy Andrews and Piers M Forster The observed sensitivity of the global hydrological cycle to changes in surface temperature [/1748-9326/5/3/035201] Phillip A Arkin, Thomas M Smith, Mathew R P Sapiano and John Janowiak Precipitation changes within dynamical regimes in a perturbed climate [/1748-9326/5/3/035202] Jonny Williams and Mark A Ringer http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/5/i=2/a=025201 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Allan- Anticipated-Changes-Atmospheric-2010.pdf
J. RISLEY, H. MORADKHANI, L. HAY AND S. MARKSTROM (2011)
Statistical Comparisons of Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change in Selected Basins across the United States, Earth Interactions, 15, In an earlier global climate-change study, air temperature and precipitation data for the entire twenty-first century simulated from five general circulation models were used as input to precalibrated watershed models for 14 selected basins across the United States. Simulated daily streamflow and energy output from the watershed models were used to compute a range of statistics. With a side-by-side comparison of the statistical analyses for the 14 basins, regional climatic and hydrologic trends over the twenty-first century could be qualitatively identified. Low-flow statistics (95% exceedance, 7-day mean annual minimum, and summer mean monthly streamflow) decreased for almost all basins. Annual maximum daily streamflow also decreased in all the basins, except for all four basins in California and the Pacific Northwest. An analysis of the supply of available energy and water for the basins indicated that ratios of evaporation to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to precipitation for most of the basins will increase. Probability density functions (PDFs) were developed to assess the uncertainty and multimodality in the impact of climate change on mean annual streamflow variability. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests showed significant differences between the beginning and ending twenty-first-century PDFs for most of the basins, with the exception of four basins that are located in the western United States. Almost none of the basin PDFs were normally distributed, and two basins in the upper Midwest had PDFs that were extremely dispersed and skewed.
S. P. RITZ, T. F. STOCKER AND F. JOOS (2011)
A Coupled Dynamical Ocean-Energy Balance Atmosphere Model for Paleoclimate Studies, Journal of Climate, 24, 2, 349-375
The Bern3D coupled three-dimensional dynamical ocean-energy balance atmosphere model is introduced and the atmospheric component is discussed in detail. The model is of reduced complexity, developed to perform extensive sensitivity studies and ensemble simulations extending over several glacial-interglacial cycles. On large space scales, the modern steady state of the model compares well with observations. In a first application, several 800 000-yr simulations with prescribed orbital, greenhouse gas, and ice sheet forcings are performed. The model shows an increase of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength at glacial inceptions followed by a decrease throughout the glaciation and ending in a circulation at glacial maxima that is weaker than at present. The sensitivity of ocean temperature to atmospheric temperature, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and Antarctic bottom water (AABW) strength is analyzed at 23 locations. In a second application the climate sensitivities of the modern and of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) state are compared. The temperature rise for a doubling of the CO2 concentration from LGM conditions is 4.3 degrees C and thus notably larger than in the modern case (3 degrees C). The relaxation time scale is strongly dependent on the response of AABW to the CO2 change, since it determines the ventilation of the deep Pacific and Indian Ocean.
R. ROCA, R. GUZMAN, J. LEMOND, J. MEIJER, L. PICON AND H. BROGNIEZ (2012)
Tropical and Extra-Tropical Influences on the Distribution of Free Tropospheric Humidity Over the Intertropical Belt, Surveys in Geophysics, 33, 3-4, 565-583
Free tropospheric humidity (FTH) is a key parameter of the radiation budget of the Earth. In particular, its distribution over the intertropical belt has been identified as an important contributor to the water vapour feedback. Idealized radiative transfer computations are performed to underscore the need to consider the whole probability distribution function (PDF) rather than the arithmetical mean of the FTH. The analysis confirmed the overwhelming role of the dry end of the PDF in the radiative perturbation of the top of atmosphere longwave budget. The physical and dynamical processes responsible for the maintenance of this dry part of the FTH distribution are reviewed, and the lateral mixing between the tropics and the extra-tropics is revealed as a major element of the dry air dynamics. The evolution of this lateral mixing in the framework of the global warming is discussed, and perspectives of work are listed as a mean of a conclusion.
J. ROGELJ, D. L. MCCOLLUM, A. REISINGER, M. MEINSHAUSEN AND K. RIAHI (2013)
PROBABILISTIC COST ESTIMATES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, NATURE, 493, 7430, 79-83
For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 degrees C has been a key focus of the international climate debate(1). In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target(2-5). Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines(6). The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs(2- 4,7). The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases(8-12). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions(6,13). Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. Wefind that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 degrees C, or other limits such as 3 degrees C or 1.5 degrees C, across a wide range of scenarios.
J. ROGELJ, M. MEINSHAUSEN AND R. KNUTTI (2012)
Global warming under old an new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates, Nature Climate Change, 2, 4, 248-253
Climate projections for the fourth assessment report(1) (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(2) (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(3) (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed(4). Climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) will be based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(5) (CMIP5), which incorporates the latest versions of climate models and focuses on RCPs. This implies that by AR5 both models and scenarios will have changed, making a comparison with earlier literature challenging. To facilitate this comparison, we provide probabilistic climate projections of both SRES scenarios and RCPs in a single consistent framework. These estimates are based on a model set-up that probabilistically takes into account the overall consensus understanding of climate sensitivity uncertainty, synthesizes the understanding of climate system and carbon-cycle behaviour, and is at the same time constrained by the observed historical warming.
R. A. M. Rohde Robert, Robert Jacobsen,, S. P. Elizabeth Muller, Arthur Rosenfeld, and D. G. Jonathan Wurtele2, Charlotte Wickham, (2012)
A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011, The Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, 30
We report an estimate of the Earth’s average land surface temperature for the period 1753 to 2011. To address issues of potential station selection bias, we used larger sampling of stations than had prior studies. For the period post 1880, our estimate is similar to those previously reported by other groups, although we report smaller error uncertainties. The land temperature rise from the 1950s decade to the 2000s decade is 0.87 ± 0.05 ºC (95% confidence). Both maximum and minimum daily temperatures have increased during the last century. Diurnal variations decreased from 1900 to 1987, and then increased; this increase is significant but not understood. The period of 1753 to 1850 is marked by sudden drops in land surface temperature that are coincident with known volcanism; the response function is approximately 1.5 ± 0.5 ºC per 100 Tg of atmospheric sulfate. This volcanism, combined with a simple proxy for anthropogenic effects (logarithm of the CO2 concentration), can account for much of the variation in the land surface temperature record; the fit is not improved by the addition of a solar forcing term. Thus, for this very simple model, solar forcing does not appear to contribute to the observed global warming of the past 250 years; the entire change can be accounted for by a sum of volcanism and anthropogenic proxies. The residual variations include interannual and multi-decadal variability very similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Rohde-Muller-New-Estimate-Average-Surface-Land-tem- 20120706.pdf
A. RORSCH, T. FRELLO, R. SOPER AND A. DE LANGE (2003)
An Analysis Of The Nature Of The Opposition Raised Against The Book “The Skeptical Environmentalist” By B. Lomborg. , 11
CONTROVERSIAL IDEAS IN SCIENCE
Modern science proceeds through theories which are tested by observations. If these do not fit the assumptions, new theories are developed to replace the former ones (see Carl Popper and Thomas Kuhn)(1). In the history of science there have been several long periods where two conflicting theories were proposed, and because no decisive observations could be made, the alternative concepts stayed subject to debate among scientists. These were very interesting periods in the fields concerned. The debate stimulated the development of new ideas with the result that these periods were among the more productive in the history of science. However, the ‘law’ that science advances particularly well through conflict cannot be generalized. In several historical cases we see that the debate went beyond the logic of scientific argumentation and became emotional. New ideas, conflicting with reigning views, affected the authority of the ruling class of scientists in the field. (2)
THE ‘LOMBORG CASE’
Lomborg wrote a controversial book in which he opposes the pessimistic view of a number of scientists and environmental organizations on the state of our physical, chemical and biological environment.(3) Throughout the book, he propagated the thesis that ‘things are going better instead of worse’. The work is essentially a literature search primarily based on the official documents of UN agencies. Some environmental researchers raised opposition against many issues in the book in reviews and on web sites (4,5,6,7 ). Some others who praised the book (Ridley, Gleditsch, Wolpert, Hirshleifer)(3), however, are less directly involved in environmental research than the opponents. After an unsettled debate (mostly outside the official scientific journals) several opponents lodged a complaint of scientific misconduct with a disciplinary body (DCSD) in the author’s home country of Denmark. This body ruled the book as ‘dishonest’ which raised a second wave of controversial statements from all over the world (8,9).
SCIENCE AND POLITICS The environmental sciences have a strong impact on politics, and the reverse is also true. Observed unfavorable developments in the environment require measures and investments from governmental authorities and some of these investments are made into further environmental research. Almost all scientists in the field, and not least Lomborg, who is a political scientist, show outspoken opinion on the desired political consequences of the interpretation of their scientific research. As a result scientific and political conceptions are easily mixed up which makes the debate on the scientific aspects of environmental issues confusing to the outsider.
THE SCOPE OF THIS PAPER
In the opinion of the authors of this paper, the opposition raised against the book contains some legitimate scientific criticism. Here we chiefly review, however, the nature and in particular the quality of the opposition in the light of the importance of this issue for the progress of science.
Behind our paper are a number of unpublished but more detailed reports from us, towards which we will make references, and which are available on www.stichting-han.nl/lomborg.htm
http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Lomborg-Defense.pdf
T. Roy, L. Bopp, M. Gehlen, B. Schneider, P. Cadule, T. L. Frölicher, J. Segschneider, J. Tjiputra, C. Heinze and F. Joos (2011)
Regional Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 on Future Ocean Carbon Uptake: A Multimodel Linear Feedback Analysis, Journal of Climate, 24, 9, 2300-2318
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3787.1 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Roy-Regional- Impacts-Climate-Change-2011.pdf
D. L. ROYER, R. A. BERNER AND J. PARK (2007)
Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years, Nature, 446, 7135, 530-532
A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting past climate change and for predicting future climate change(1). A recent synthesis(2) suggests that the increase in global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed ‘climate sensitivity’, is between 1.5 and 6.2 degrees C ( 5-95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is inconsistent with this range(1-5). Moreover, most estimates of climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than today(1,6), so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of large climate-change events(7) and may not be applicable to climate change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-million-year timescales. We conclude that a climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 degrees C has probably been a robust feature of the Earth’s climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling.
H. W. RUST, M. VRAC, M. LENGAIGNE AND B. SULTAN (2010)
Quantifying Differences in Circulation Patterns Based on Probabilistic Models: IPCC AR4 Multimodel Comparison for the North Atlantic, Journal of Climate, 23, 24, 6573-6589
The comparison of circulation patterns (CPs) obtained from reanalysis data to those from general circulation model (GCM) simulations is a frequent task for model validation, downscaling of GCM simulations, or other climate change related studies. Here, the authors suggest a set of measures to quantify the differences between CPs. A combination of clustering using Gaussian mixture models with a set of related difference measures allows for taking cluster size and shape information into account and thus provides more information than the Euclidean distances between cluster centroids. The characteristics of the various distance measures are illustrated with a simple simulated example. Subsequently, a five-component Gaussian mixture to define circulation patterns for the North Atlantic region from reanalysis data and GCM simulations is used. CPs are obtained independently for the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), as well as for twentieth-century simulations from 14 GCMs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) database. After discussing the difference of CPs based on spherical and nonspherical clusters for the reanalysis datasets, the authors give a detailed evaluation of the cluster configuration for two GCMs relative to NCEP-NCAR. Finally, as an illustration, the capability of reproducing the NCEP-NCAR probability density function (pdf) defining the Greenland anticyclone CP is evaluated for all 14 GCMs, considering that the size and shape of the underlying pdfs complement the commonly used Euclidean distance of CPs’ mean values.
S. SALLON, E. SOLOWEY, Y. COHEN, R. KORCHINSKY, M. EGLI, I. WOODHATCH, O. SIMCHONI AND M. KISLEV (2008)
GERMINATION, GENETICS, AND GROWTH OF AN ANCIENT DATE SEED, SCIENCE, 320, 5882, 1464
An ancient date seed (Phoenix dactylifera L.) excavated from Masada and radiocarbon-dated to the first century Common Era was germinated. Climatic conditions at the Dead Sea may have contributed to the longevity of this oldest, directly dated, viable seed. Growth and development of the seedling over 26 months was compatible with normal date seedlings propagated from modern seeds. Preliminary molecular characterization demonstrated high levels of genetic variation in comparison to modern, elite date cultivars currently growing in Israel. As a representative of an extinct date palm population, this seedling can provide insights into the historic date culture of the Dead Sea region. It also has importance for seed banking and conservation and may be of relevance to modern date palm cultivation.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/320/5882/1464.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Sallon-Germination-Genetics-Growth-Ancient-Date-2008.pdf
M. W. SALZER AND M. K. HUGHES (2007)
Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr, Quaternary Research, 67, 1, 57-68
Many years of low growth identified in a western USA regional chronology of upper forest border bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva and Pinus aristata) over the last 5000 yr coincide with known large explosive volcanic eruptions and/or ice core signals of past eruptions. Over the last millennium the agreement between the tree-ring data and volcano/ice-core data is high: years of ring-width minima can be matched with known volcanic eruptions or ice- core volcanic signals in 86% of cases. In previous millennia, while there is substantial concurrence, the agreement decreases with increasing antiquity. Many of the bristlecone pine ring-width minima occurred at the same time as ring-width minima in high latitude trees from northwestern Siberia and/or northern Finland over the past 4000- 5000 yr, suggesting climatically-effective events of at least hemispheric scale. In contrast with the ice-core records, the agreement between widely separated tree-ring records does not decrease with increasing antiquity. These data suggest specific intervals when the climate system was or was not particularly sensitive enough to volcanic forcing to affect the trees, and they augment the ice core record in a number of ways: by providing confirmation from an alternative proxy record for volcanic signals, by suggesting alternative dates for eruptions, and by adding to the list of years when volcanic events of global significance were likely, including the mid-2nd-millennium BC eruption of Thera. © 2006 University of Washington. All rights reserved.
A. Samanta, S. Ganguly, H. Hashimoto, S. Devadiga, E. Vermote, Y. Knyazikhin, R. R. Nemani and R. B. Myneni (2010)
Amazon forests did not green-up during the 2005 drought, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, 5, L05401
The sensitivity of Amazon rainforests to dry-season droughts is still poorly understood, with reports of enhanced tree mortality and forest fires on one hand, and excessive forest greening on the other. Here, we report that the previous results of large-scale greening of the Amazon, obtained from an earlier version of satellite-derived vegetation greenness data - Collection 4 (C4) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), are irreproducible, with both this earlier version as well as the improved, current version (C5), owing to inclusion of atmosphere-corrupted data in those results. We find no evidence of large-scale greening of intact Amazon forests during the 2005 drought - approximately 11%–12% of these drought-stricken forests display greening, while, 28%–29% show browning or no-change, and for the rest, the data are not of sufficient quality to characterize any changes. These changes are also not unique - approximately similar changes are observed in non-drought years as well. Changes in surface solar irradiance are contrary to the speculation in the previously published report of enhanced sunlight availability during the 2005 drought. There was no co-relation between drought severity and greenness changes, which is contrary to the idea of drought-induced greening. Thus, we conclude that Amazon forests did not green- up during the 2005 drought.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL042154 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Samanta- Amazon-Forests-not-Greenup-2010.pdf and Sunday Times: http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Gray-IPCC-wrong-on-Amazon-Forest-Impact-20100313.pdf
M. G. SANDERSON, D. L. HEMMING AND R. A. BETTS (2011)
Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (4°C) global warming, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 85-98
Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as ‘high-end’ (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and ‘non-high-end’ simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/85.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Sanderson-Regional-Temperature-Precipitation-2011.pdf
N. SCAFETTA (2009)
Empirical analysis of the solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 71, 17-18, 1916-1923
The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: tau(1) = 0.4 +/- 0.1 yr and tau(2) = 8 +/- 2 yr or tau(2) = 12 +/- 3 yr. Since 1980 the solar contribution to climate change is uncertain because of the severe uncertainty of the total solar irradiance satellite composites. The Sun may have caused from a slight cooling, if PMOD TSI composite is used, to a significant warming (up to 65% of the total observed warming) if ACRIM, or other TSI composites are used. The model is calibrated only on the empirical 11-year solar cycle signature on the instrumental global surface temperature since 1980. The model reconstructs the major temperature patterns covering 400 years of solar induced temperature changes, as shown in recent paleoclimate global temperature records. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Q. SCHIERMEIER (2007)
CHEMISTS POKE HOLES IN OZONE THEORY, NATURE, 449, 7161, 382-383
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/449382a AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Schiermeier- PokeWholes-2007.pdf
S. SCHNEIDER (2002)
GLOBAL WARMING, NEGLECTING THE COMPLEXITIES, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, 286, 1, 62-65
Presents the experiences of the author in discussing the risk factors and outcomes of global warming. Reluctance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to forecast future climate changes; Discussion of the book ‘The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World,’ by Bjorn Lomborg; Criticism of the book.
http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=buh&AN=5638886&site=ehost-live AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Schneider-American-Scientist-2002.pdf
S. H. SCHNEIDER (2004)
Abrupt non-linear climate change, irreversibility and surprise, Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 14, 3, 245-258
Any discussion of the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures should take into consideration the full range of possible climate change outcomes, including impacts that remain highly uncertain, like surprises and other climate irreversibilities. Real-world coupling between complex systems can cause them to exhibit new collective behaviours that are not clearly demonstrable by models that do not include such coupling. Through examples from ocean circulation and atmosphere-biosphere interactions, this paper demonstrates that external forcings such as increases in GHG concentrations can push complex systems from one equilibrium state to another, with non-linear abrupt change as a possible consequence. Furthermore, the harder and faster a system is perturbed, the higher the likelihood of such surprises-a conclusion that has significant bearing on the assessment of the potential benefits of the timing and stringency of GHG abatement measures. The paper concludes with a perspective on how to better incorporate uncertainty and surprise into integrated assessment models of climate change. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
S. H. SCHNEIDER AND M. D. MASTRANDREA (2005)
Probabilistic assessment “dangerous” climate change and emissions pathways, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 44, 15728-15735
Climate policy decisions driving future greenhouse gas mitigation efforts will strongly influence the success of compliance with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the prevention of “dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” However, success will be measured in very different ways by different stakeholders, suggesting a spectrum of possible definitions for DAI The likelihood of avoiding a given threshold for DAI depends in part on uncertainty in the climate system, notably, the range of uncertainty in climate sensitivity. We combine a set of probabilistic global average temperature metrics for DAI with probability distributions of future climate change produced from a combination of several published climate sensitivity distributions and a range of proposed concentration stabilization profiles differing in both stabilization level and approach trajectory, including overshoot profiles. These analyses present a “likelihood framework” to differentiate future emissions pathways with regard to their potential for preventing DAI Our analysis of overshoot profiles in comparison with non-overshoot profiles demonstrates that overshoot of a given stabilization target can significantly increase the likelihood of exceeding “dangerous” climate impact thresholds, even though equilibrium warming in our model is identical for non-overshoot concentration stabilization profiles having the same target.
P. SCHONSWETTER, A. TRIBSCH, G. M. SCHNEEWEISS AND H. NIKLFELD (2003)
Disjunctions in relict alpine plants: phylogeography of Androsace brevis and A-wulfeniana (Primulaceae), Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 141, 4, 437-446
Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) was used to clarify the glacial history of the rare, disjunctly distributed, alpine cushion plant Androsace wulfeniana, which is endemic to the Eastern Alps (Austria and Italy). Disjunct populations in the Dolomites are genetically very distinct from those in the main distributional area. It is hypothesized that they are descendants of long-term isolated glacial survivors and are not a result of recent long- distance dispersal. Within the main distributional area of the species in the central Eastern Alps, two groups of populations can be distinguished, which are congruent with hotspots of rare relictual vascular plant taxa. In the taxonomically closely related A. brevis growing in the Southern Alps (Italy, Switzerland), no genetic-geographical structure was found. Genetic variation is extremely low in disjunct populations of A. wulfeniana in the Dolomites and in A. brevis. In contrast, in the main distributional area of A. wulfeniana, genetic variation is similar to that of the colonizing widespread congener A. alpina. © 2003 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2003, 141, 437-446.
S. SELF (2006)
The effects and consequences of very large explosive volcanic eruptions, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364, 1845, 2073-2097
Every now and again Earth experiences tremendous explosive volcanic eruptions, considerably 3 bigger than the largest witnessed in historic times. Those yielding more than 450 km of magma have been called super-eruptions. The record of such eruptions is incomplete; the most recent known example occurred 26 000 years ago. It is more likely that the Earth will next experience a super-eruption than an impact from a large meteorite greater than 1 km in diameter. Depending on where the volcano is located, the effects will be felt globally or at least by a whole hemisphere. Large areas will be devastated by pyroclastic flow deposits, and the more widely dispersed ash falls will be laid down over continent-sized areas. The most widespread effects will be derived from volcanic gases, sulphur gases being particularly important. This gas is converted into sulphuric acid aerosols in the stratosphere and layers of aerosol can cover the global atmosphere within a few weeks to months. These remain for several years and affect atmospheric circulation causing surface temperature to fall in many regions. Effects include temporary reductions in light levels and severe and unseasonable weather (including cool summers and colder- than-normal winters). Some aspects of the understanding and prediction of super-eruptions are problematic because they are well outside modern experience. Our global society is now very different to that affected by past, modest-sized volcanic activity and is highly vulnerable to catastrophic damage of infrastructure by natural disasters. Major disruption of services that society depends upon can be expected for periods of months to, perhaps, years after the next very large explosive eruption and the cost to global financial markets will be high and sustained.
J. G. SHEPHERD (2012)
Geoengineering the climate: an overview and update, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a- Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 370, 1974, 4166-4175
The climate change that we are experiencing now is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activities, including burning fossil fuels, agriculture and deforestation. There is now widespread belief that a global warming of greater than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels would be dangerous and should therefore be avoided. However, despite growing concerns over climate change and numerous international attempts to agree on reductions of global CO2 emissions, these have continued to climb. This has led some commentators to suggest more radical ‘geoengineering’ alternatives to conventional mitigation by reductions in CO2 emissions. Geoengineering is deliberate intervention in the climate system to counteract man-made global warming. There are two main classes of geoengineering: direct carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management that aims to cool the planet by reflecting more sunlight back to space. The findings of the review of geoengineering carried out by the UK Royal Society in 2009 are summarized here, including the climate effects, costs, risks and research and governance needs for various approaches. The possible role of geoengineering in a portfolio of responses to climate change is discussed, and various recent initiatives to establish good governance of research activity are reviewed. Key findings include the following. - Geoengineering is not a magic bullet and not an alternative to emissions reductions. - Cutting global greenhouse gas emissions must remain our highest priority. (i) But this is proving to be difficult, and geoengineering may be useful to support it. - Geoengineering is very likely to be technically possible. (i) However, there are major uncertainties and potential risks concerning effectiveness, costs and social and environmental impacts. - Much more research is needed, as well as public engagement and a system of regulation (for both deployment and for possible large-scale field tests). - The acceptability of geoengineering will be determined as much by social, legal and political issues as by scientific and technical factors. Some methods of both types would involve release of materials to the environment, either to the atmosphere or to the oceans, in areas beyond national jurisdiction. The intended impacts on climate would in any case affect many or all countries, possibly to a variable extent. There are therefore inherent international implications for deployment of such geoengineering methods (and possibly also for some forms of research), which need early and collaborative consideration, before any deployment or large-scale experiments could be undertaken responsibly.
D. SHINDELL, G. FALUVEGI, A. LACIS, J. HANSEN, R. RUEDY AND E. AGUILAR (2006)
Role of tropospheric ozone increases in 20th-century climate change, Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 111, D8, Human activities have increased tropospheric ozone, contributing to 20th-century warming. Using the spatial and temporal distribution of precursor emissions, we simulated tropospheric ozone from 1890 to 1990 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) chemistry model. Archived three-dimensional ozone fields were then used in transient GISS climate model simulations. This enables more realistic evaluation of the impact of tropospheric ozone increases than prior simulations using an interpolation between preindustrial and present-day ozone. We find that tropospheric ozone contributed to the greater 20th-century warming in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics compared with the tropics and in the tropics compared with the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Additionally, ozone increased more rapidly during the latter half of the century than the former, causing more rapid warming during that time. This is especially apparent in the tropics and is consistent with observations, which do not show similar behavior in the extratropics. Other climate forcings do not substantially accelerate warming rates in the tropics relative to other regions. This suggests that accelerated tropospheric ozone increases related to industrialization in the developing world have contributed to the accelerated tropical warming. During boreal summer, tropospheric ozone causes enhanced warming (>0.5 degrees C) over polluted northern continental regions. Finally, the Arctic climate response to tropospheric ozone increases is large during fall, winter, and spring when ozone’s lifetime is comparatively long and pollution transported from midlatitudes is abundant. The model indicates that tropospheric ozone could have contributed about 0.3 degrees C annual average and about 0.4 degrees C-0.5 degrees C during winter and spring to the 20th-century Arctic warming. Pollution controls could thus substantially reduce the rapid rate of Arctic warming.
D. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, M. Walsh, S. C. Anenberg, R. Van Dingenen, N. Z. Muller, J. Austin, D. Koch and G. Milly (2011) Climate, health, agricultural and economic impacts of tighter vehicle-emission standards, Nature Clim. Change, 1, 1, 59-66
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1066 AND http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n1/abs/nclimate1066.html#supplementary-information AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Shindell-Climate-Healt-Agricuture-Vehicles-2011.pdf
M. SIDDALL, T. F. STOCKER AND P. U. CLARK (2009)
Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change, Nature Geosci, 2, 8, 571-575
It is difficult to project sea-level rise in response to warming climates by the end of the century, especially because the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to warming is not well understood1. However, sea-level fluctuations in response to changing climate have been reconstructed for the past 22,000 years from fossil data, a period that covers the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the warm Holocene interglacial period. Here we present a simple model of the integrated sea-level response to temperature change that implicitly includes contributions from the thermal expansion and the reduction of continental ice. Our model explains much of the centennial-scale variability observed over the past 22,000 years, and estimates 4–24 cm of sea-level rise during the twentieth century, in agreement with the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1 (IPCC). In response to the minimum (1.1 °C) and maximum (6.4 °C) warming projected for AD 2100 by the IPCC models, our model predicts 7 and 82 cm of sea-level rise by the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. The range of sea-level rise is slightly larger than the estimates from the IPCC models of 18–76 cm, but is sufficiently similar to increase confidence in the projections. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo587 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/siddall-constraints- future-sea-level-2009.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/siddall-constraints-future-sea- level-supplement-2009.pdf
M. SIDDALL, T. F. STOCKER AND P. U. CLARK (2010)
Constraints on future sea-level rise from past sea-level change (Retraction of vol 2, pg 571, 2009), Nature Geoscience, 3, 3, 217-217
I. J. Simpson, M. P. Sulbaek Andersen, S. Meinardi, L. Bruhwiler, N. J. Blake, D. Helmig, F. S. Rowland and D. R. Blake (2012)
Long-term decline of global atmospheric ethane concentrations and implications for methane, Nature, 488, 7412, 490-494 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature11342 AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v488/n7412/abs/nature11342.html#supplementary-information AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Simpson-Long-Term-Decline-Ethane-2012.pdf
M. SINGER AND D. SOLL (1973)
GUIDELINES FOR DNA HYBRID MOLECULES, SCIENCE, 181, 4105, 1114 http://www.jstor.org/stable/1736531 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Genomics/Singer-Guidelines-DNA- Hybrid-Molecules-Letter-1973.pdf
J. B. Smith, S. H. Schneider, M. Oppenheimer, G. W. Yohe, W. Hare, M. D. Mastrandrea, A. Patwardhan, I. Burton, J. Corfee-Morlot, C. H. D. Magadza, H. M. Fuessel, A. B. Pittock, A. Rahman, A. Suarez and J. P. van Ypersele (2009)
Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 11, 4133-4137
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “‘reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.”
M. S. SMITH, L. HORROCKS, A. HARVEY AND C. HAMILTON (2011) Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 196-216
With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/196.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Smith-Rethinking-Adaptation-4-degrees-2011.pdf
S. SOLOMON AND M. MANNING (2008)
THE IPCC MUST MAINTAIN ITS RIGOR, SCIENCE, 319, 5869, 1457-1457
S. SOLOMON, G.-K. PLATTNER, R. KNUTTI AND P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN (2009)
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 6, 1704-1709
The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer.
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/6/1704.abstract AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global- Warming/Solomon-Irreversible-Climate-Change-Carbon-2008.pdf
O. G. SOROKHTIN, G. V. CHILINGAR, L. KHILYUK AND M. V. GORFUNKEL (2007)
Evolution of the Earth’s global climate, Energy Sources Part a-Recovery Utilization and Environmental Effects, 29, 1, 1-19
The model of the Earth’s climate change described here is based on the Earth’s global evolution theory and adiabatic theory of the greenhouse effect. The main factor determining climate’s temperature parameters is the atmospheric pressure. Glaciations at the end of Paleozoic-Phanerozoic time occurred due to a gradual atmospheric pressure decline as a result of nitrogen consumption by the nitrogen-consuming bacteria that removed nitrogen from the atmosphere and concentrated it in sediments. A warm period in the second half of Mesozoic was associated with the formation of the Pangaea supercontinent and intensified oxygen generation, which compensated for the lowered nitrogen partial pressure.
O. G. SOROKHTIN, G. V. CHILINGAR, L. KHILYUK AND M. V. GORFUNKEL (2010)
ORIGIN OF EARTH’S ICE AGES, ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS, 32, 2, 101-107
The Earth’s climate is affected, among other factors, by the precession angle. Decrease of the precession angle is accompanied by a noticeable climate cool-down. As soon as Earth’s average near-surface temperature reaches some critical value, glaciation emerges. The emergence and growth of ice covers unavoidably result in a distortion of Earth’s spherical symmetry (its equilibrium revolution) causing relatively rapid increase in the precession angle. There is a good correlation between the theoretical and experimental data. These data indicate that the glaciations over the northern continents and the advent of the glaciation periods occurred after the average Earth’s temperature declines below approximate to +10.5 degrees C to 10 degrees C. As a result of the interaction between the Moon and Earth during the Pleistocene time, slow but orderly climate cooling episodes occurred periodically. Their magnitude was 8 degrees C to 10 degrees C, and their duration reached 100,000 to 120,000 years. After a thick ice cover formed, the climate rapidly, during a few thousand years, warmed up by the same amount of 8 degrees C to 10 degrees C, and the glaciations degraded just as rapidly. Thus, that Moon-Earth interaction in combination with the glaciations induces substantially nonlinear self-oscillatory climatic processes, which are so typical for the entire Late Pleistocene time. In the future, despite the abundant release of anthropogenic gases, there will be a significant cooling down, possibly the most severe in the geologic history.
R. W. SPENCER (2007)
HOW SERIOUS IS THE GLOBAL WARMING THREAT?, SOCIETY, 44, 5, 45-50
Despite the media’s and politicians’ insistence that the science of global warming is “settled”, there are good reasons to distrust climate model projections of future global warming. While the supposed scientific consensus is that mankind is very likely to blame for recent global warmth, this is mostly a statement of faith made from a position of relative ignorance about natural variability in the climate system. Since we do not understand what causes decadal- to century-scale natural climate variability, it has simply been assumed to either not exist, or to be relatively small. But even if predictions of catastrophic warming are accurate, the worldwide demand for energy is so large that there is little mankind can do without radically new energy technologies. Since it is only the wealthy countries of the world that can afford the R&D efforts to develop those technologies, punishing the use of fossil fuels, and the resulting negative impact on economies, might well delay the development of cost effective carbon- free energy sources that so many people are now calling for.
R. W. SPENCER AND W. D. BRASWELL (2008)
Potential Biases in Feedback Diagnosis from Observational Data: A Simple Model Demonstration, Journal of Climate, 21, 21, 5624-5628
Feedbacks are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainity in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing anthropogenic green house gas concentrations, yet the ability to diagnose them from observations has remained controversial. Here a simple model is used to demonstrate that any nonfeedback source of top-of-atmosphere radiative flux variations can cause temperature variability, which then results in a positive bias in diagnosed feedbacks. This effect is demonstrated with daily random flux variations, as might be caused by stochastic fluctuations in low cloud cover. The daily noise in radiative flux then causes interannual and decadal temperature variations in the model’s 50-m-deep swamp ocean. The amount of bias in the feedbacks diagnosed from time-averaged model output depends upon the size of the nonfeedback flux variability relative to the surface temperature variability, as well as the sign and magnitude of the specified (true) feedback. For model runs producing monthly shortwave flux anomaly and temperature anomaly statistics similar to those measured by satellites, the diagnosed feedbacks have positive biases generally in the range of -0.3 to -0.8 W m(-2) K-1. These results suggest that current observational diagnoses of cloud feedback-and possibly other feedbacks-could be significantly biased in the positive direction.
R. W. SPENCER AND W. D. BRASWELL (2010)
On the diagnosis of radiative feedback in the presence of unknown radiative forcing, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 115, The impact of time-varying radiative forcing on the diagnosis of radiative feedback from satellite observations of the Earth is explored. Phase space plots of variations in global average temperature versus radiative flux reveal linear striations and spiral patterns in both satellite measurements and in output from coupled climate models. A simple forcing-feedback model is used to demonstrate that the linear striations represent radiative feedback upon nonradiatively forced temperature variations, while the spiral patterns are the result of time-varying radiative forcing generated internal to the climate system. Only in the idealized special case of instantaneous and then constant radiative forcing, a situation that probably never occurs either naturally or anthropogenically, can feedback be observed in the presence of unknown radiative forcing. This is true whether the unknown radiative forcing is generated internal or external to the climate system. In the general case, a mixture of both unknown radiative and nonradiative forcings can be expected, and the challenge for feedback diagnosis is to extract the signal of feedback upon nonradiatively forced temperature change in the presence of the noise generated by unknown time-varying radiative forcing. These results underscore the need for more accurate methods of diagnosing feedback from satellite data and for quantitatively relating those feedbacks to long-term climate sensitivity.
R. W. SPENCER AND W. D. BRASWELL (2011)
On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth’s Radiant Energy Balance, Remote Sensing, 3, 8, 1603-1613
http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/ AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/spencer- misdiagnosis-surface-temp-2011.pdf AND
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
R. W. SPENCER, W. D. BRASWELL, J. R. CHRISTY AND J. HNILO (2007)
Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 15, We explore the daily evolution of tropical intraseasonal oscillations in satellite-observed tropospheric temperature, precipitation, radiative fluxes, and cloud properties. The warm/rainy phase of a composited average of fifteen oscillations is accompanied by a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean- atmosphere system, with longwave heating anomalies transitioning to longwave cooling during the rainy phase. The increase in longwave cooling is traced to decreasing coverage by ice clouds, potentially supporting Lindzen’s “ infrared iris “ hypothesis of climate stabilization. These observations should be considered in the testing of cloud parameterizations in climate models, which remain sources of substantial uncertainty in global warming prediction.
R. W. SPENCER AND J. R. CHRISTY (1990)
PRECISE MONITORING OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM SATELLITES, Science, 247, 4950, 1558-1562
R. W. SPENCER, F. J. LAFONTAINE, T. DEFELICE AND F. J. WENTZ (1998)
Tropical oceanic precipitation changes after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 55, 9, 1707-1713
Passive microwave channels like those flown on the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) contain two primary types of information on oceanic precipitation: condensate below the freezing level and precipitation-size condensate above the freezing level. The authors explore the question of whether these two separate pieces of information might contain insight into climate processes during a perturbation in the climate system. In particular, the relative fluctuations of rain and ice signals could be related to precipitation efficiency, an important determinant of the equilibrium climate, and thus a potential feedback mechanism in climate change. As an example of this potential application, SSM/I-derived liquid and frozen precipitation signals are used to infer changes in tropical oceanic precipitation characteristics during the cool period following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The need for an assessment of the temperature sensitivity of precipitation-retrieval algorithms is also discussed.
B. Stauffer, T. Blunier, A. Dallenbach, A. Indermuhle, J. Schwander, T. F. Stocker, J. Tschumi, J. Chappellaz, D. Raynaud, C. U. Hammer and H. B. Clausen (1998)
Atmospheric CO2 concentration and millennial-scale climate change during the last glacial period, Nature, 392, 6671, 59-62
The analysis of air bubbles trapped in polar ice has permitted the reconstruction of past atmospheric concentrations of CO2 over various timescales, and revealed that large climate changes over tens of thousands of years are generally accompanied by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations(1). But the extent to which such covariations occur for fast, millennial-scale climate shifts, such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger events recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial period(2), is unresolved; CO2 data from Greenland(3) and Antarctic(4) ice cores have been conflicting in this regard, More recent work suggests that Antarctic ice should provide a more reliable CO2 record, as the higher dust(5) content of Greenland ice can give rise to artefacts(1,6,7). To compare the rapid climate changes recorded in the Greenland ice with the global trends in atmospheric CO2 concentrations as recorded in the Antarctic ice, an accurate common timescale is needed. Here we provide such a timescale for the last glacial period using the records of global atmospheric methane concentrations from both Greenland and Antarctic ice. We find that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 generally varied little with Dansgaard-Oeschger events (<10 parts per million by volume, p.p.m.v.) but varied significantly with Heinrich iceberg-discharge events (similar to 20 p.p.m.v.), especially those starting with a long-lasting Dansgaard-Oeschger event.
I. STEHLIK (2002)
Resistance or emigration? Response of alpine plants to the ice ages, Symposium on Evolution and Phylogeography of Arctic and Alpine Plants in Europe, Patras, Greece, 499-510
There is a long-standing debate about the fate of the mountain flora of the European Alps during the Pleistocene ice ages. Two main scenarios of glacial survival of alpine plant taxa have been discussed, namely (1) total extinction within glaciated areas, survival in peripheral refugia, and postglacial re-immigration into vacant areas (tabula rasa hypothesis), and (2) long-term in situ survival within glaciated regions in isolated ice-free areas above the ice-shield (nunatak hypothesis). Four alpine species with differing distributions and ecological demands were investigated to elucidate their glacial history using molecular methods (AFLPs, RFLPs of cpDNA, RAPDs). Their glacial histories are very diverse. Whereas in situ survival in the most intensely glaciated Central Alps played an important role in Eritrichium nanum, the low alpine Erinus alpinus survived in situ on some mountains of the northern Swiss Prealps, and Rumex nivalis grows at intermediate alpine elevations in snow-beds in both the northern and the Central Swiss Alps. In the common arctic-alpine Saxifraga oppositifolia, the species with the widest distribution and ecological amplitude as compared to the other three species, it is not possible to reconstruct its glacial history. It is probable, therefore, that in the Alps, as in northern Europe, resident genotypes surviving glaciation in situ were integrated into the gene pool of postglacially immigrating periglacial individuals. The size of refugia differed according to species and region. On the one hand, refugia were restricted to individual mountains (E. alpinus, R. nivalis). On the other hand, they spanned several mountain ranges in larger areas (E. nanum, E. alpinus). Postglacial migration over longer distances was inferred for E. alpinus from southern France to northern Switzerland, and, over shorter distances, for R. nivalis from the northern Prealps into the Central Alps in Switzerland. Both postglacial immigration and in situ survival shaped the phylogeography at least of E. alpinus and R. nivalis. It is likely, therefore, that the nunatak and the tabula rasa hypotheses are too simplistic to describe the rich diversity of glacial and postglacial processes in Alpine plant species. It rather appears that the glacial history of each species is to a certain degree unique and influenced by its ecological demands or breeding systems. Moreover, stochasticity has to be regarded of essential importance, since factors such as preglacial distribution patterns or postglacial dispersal or extinction events should have had effects on the present genetic composition and the distribution of a species.
F. Steinhilber, J. A. Abreu, J. Beer, I. Brunner, M. Christl, H. Fischer, U. Heikkila, P. W. Kubik, M. Mann, K. G. McCracken, H. Miller, H. Miyahara, H. Oerter and F. Wilhelms (2012)
9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 16, 5967-5971
Understanding the temporal variation of cosmic radiation and solar activity during the Holocene is essential for studies of the solar-terrestrial relationship. Cosmic-ray produced radionuclides, such as Be-10 and C-14 which are stored in polar ice cores and tree rings, offer the unique opportunity to reconstruct the history of cosmic radiation and solar activity over many millennia. Although records from different archives basically agree, they also show some deviations during certain periods. So far most reconstructions were based on only one single radionuclide record, which makes detection and correction of these deviations impossible. Here we combine different Be-10 ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica with the global C-14 tree ring record using principal component analysis. This approach is only possible due to a new high-resolution Be-10 record from Dronning Maud Land obtained within the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica in Antarctica. The new cosmic radiation record enables us to derive total solar irradiance, which is then used as a proxy of solar activity to identify the solar imprint in an Asian climate record. Though generally the agreement between solar forcing and Asian climate is good, there are also periods without any coherence, pointing to other forcings like volcanoes and greenhouse gases and their corresponding feed-backs. The newly derived records have the potential to improve our understanding of the solar dynamics and to quantify the solar influence on climate.
G. STENCHIKOV, K. HAMILTON, R. J. STOUFFER, A. ROBOCK, V. RAMASWAMY, B. SANTER AND H. F. GRAF (2006)
Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models, Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres, 111, D7, [1] Stratospheric sulfate aerosol particles from strong volcanic eruptions produce significant transient cooling of the troposphere and warming of the lower stratosphere. The radiative impact of volcanic aerosols also produces a response that generally includes an anomalously positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) that is most pronounced in the boreal winter. The main atmospheric thermal and dynamical effects of eruptions typical of the past century persist for about two years after each eruption. In this paper we evaluate the volcanic responses in simulations produced by seven of the climate models included in the model intercomparison conducted as part of the preparation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We consider global effects as well as the regional circulation effects in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere focusing on the AO responses forced by volcanic eruptions. Specifically we analyze results from the IPCC historical runs that simulate the evolution of the circulation over the last part of the 19th century and the entire 20th century using a realistic time series of atmospheric composition ( greenhouse gases and aerosols). In particular, composite anomalies over the two boreal winters following each of the nine largest low-latitude eruptions during the period 1860 - 1999 are computed for various tropospheric and stratospheric fields. These are compared when possible with observational data. The seven IPCC models we analyzed use similar assumptions about the amount of volcanic aerosols formed in the lower stratosphere following the volcanic eruptions that have occurred since 1860. All models produce tropospheric cooling and stratospheric warming as in observations. However, they display a considerable range of dynamic responses to volcanic aerosols. Nevertheless, some general conclusions can be drawn. The IPCC models tend to simulate a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation in response to volcanic forcing similar to that typically observed. However, the associated dynamic perturbations and winter surface warming over Northern Europe and Asia in the post- volcano winters is much weaker in the models than in observations. The AR4 models also underestimate the variability and long-term trend of the AO. This deficiency affects high-latitude model predictions and may have a similar origin. This analysis allows us to better evaluate volcanic impacts in up-to-date climate models and to better quantify the model Arctic Oscillation sensitivity to external forcing. This potentially could lead to improving model climate predictions in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
B. Stenni, D. Buiron, M. Frezzotti, S. Albani, C. Barbante, E. Bard, J. M. Barnola, M. Baroni, M. Baumgartner, M. Bonazza, E. Capron, E. Castellano, J. Chappellaz, B. Delmonte, S. Falourd, L. Genoni, P. Iacumin, J. Jouzel, S. Kipfstuhl, A. Landais, B. Lemieux-Dudon, V. Maggi, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Mazzola, B. Minster, M. Montagnat, R. Mulvaney, B. Narcisi, H. Oerter, F. Parrenin, J. R. Petit, C. Ritz, C. Scarchilli, A. Schilt, S. Schupbach, J. Schwander, E. Selmo, M. Severi, T. F. Stocker and R. Udisti (2011)
Expression of the bipolar see-saw in Antarctic climate records during the last deglaciation, Nature Geoscience, 4, 1, 46-49
Ice-core records of climate from Greenland and Antarctica show asynchronous temperature variations on millennial timescales during the last glacial period(1). The warming during the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions was markedly different between the hemispheres, a pattern attributed to the thermal bipolar see- saw(2). However, a record from the Ross Sea sector of East Antarctica has been suggested to be synchronous with Northern Hemisphere climate change(3). Here we present a temperature record from the Talos Dome ice core, also located in the Ross Sea sector. We compare our record with ice-core analyses from Greenland, based on methane synchronization(4), and find clearly asynchronous temperature changes during the deglaciation. We also find distinct differences in Antarctic records, pointing to differences in the climate evolution of the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic sectors of Antarctica. In the Atlantic sector, we find that the rate of warming slowed between 16,000 and 14,500 years ago, parallel with the deceleration of the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and with a slight cooling over Greenland. In addition, our chronology supports the hypothesis that the cooling of the Antarctic Cold Reversal is synchronous with the Bolling-Allerod warming in the northern hemisphere 14,700 years ago(5).
I. STIRLING AND C. L. PARKINSON (2006)
Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic, Arctic, 59, 3, 261-275 Polar bears depend on sea ice for survival. Climate warming in the Arctic has caused significant declines in total cover and thickness of sea ice in the polar basin and progressively earlier breakup in some areas. Inuit hunters in the areas of four polar bear populations in the eastern Canadian Arctic (including Western Hudson Bay) have reported seeing more bears near settlements during the open-water period in recent years. In a fifth ecologically similar population, no changes have yet been reported by Inuit hunters. These observations, interpreted as evidence of increasing population size, have resulted in increases in hunting quotas. However, long-term data on the population size and body condition of polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, as well as population and harvest data from Baffin Bay, make it clear that those two populations at least are more likely to be declining, not increasing. While the ecological details vary in the regions occupied by the five different populations discussed in this paper, analysis of passive-microwave satellite imagery beginning in the late 1970s indicates that the sea ice is breaking up at progressively earlier dates, so that bears must fast for longer periods during the open-water season. Thus, at least part of the explanation for the appearance of more bears near coastal communities and hunting camps is likely that they are searching for alternative food sources in years when their stored body fat depots may be depleted before freeze-up, when they can return to the sea ice to hunt seals again. We hypothesize that, if the climate continues to warm as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), then polar bears in all five populations discussed in this paper will be increasingly food-stressed, and their numbers are likely to decline eventually, probably significantly so. As these populations decline, problem interactions between bears and humans will likely continue, and possibly increase, as the bears seek alternative food sources. Taken together, the data reported in this paper suggest that a precautionary approach be taken to the harvesting of polar bears and that the potential effects of climate warming be incorporated into planning for the management and conservation of this species throughout the Arctic.
B. D. STOCKER, K. STRASSMANN AND F. JOOS (2011)
Sensitivity of Holocene atmospheric CO2 and the modern carbon budget to early human land use: analyses with a process-based model, Biogeosciences, 8, 1, 69-88
A Dynamic Global Vegetation model coupled to a simplified Earth system model is used to simulate the impact of anthropogenic land cover changes (ALCC) on Holocene atmospheric CO2 and the contemporary carbon cycle. The model results suggest that early agricultural activities cannot explain the mid to late Holocene CO2 rise of 20 ppm measured on ice cores and that proposed upward revisions of Holocene ALCC imply a smaller contemporary terrestrial carbon sink. A set of illustrative scenarios is applied to test the robustness of these conclusions and to address the large discrepancies between published ALCC reconstructions. Simulated changes in atmospheric CO2 due to ALCC are less than 1 ppm before 1000AD and 30 ppm at 2004AD when the HYDE3.1 ALCC reconstruction is prescribed for the past 12 000 years. Cumulative emissions of 69 GtC at 1850 and 233 GtC at 2004AD are comparable to earlier estimates. CO2 changes due to ALCC exceed the simulated natural interannual variability only after 1000 AD. To consider evidence that land area used per person was higher before than during early industrialisation, agricultural areas from HYDE3.1 were increased by a factor of two prior to 1700AD (scenario H2). For the H2 scenario, the contemporary terrestrial carbon sink required to close the atmospheric CO2 budget is reduced by 0.5 GtC yr(-1). Simulated CO2 remains small even in scenarios where average land use per person is increased beyond the range of published estimates. Even extreme assumptions for preindustrial land conversion and high per- capita land use do not result in simulated CO2 emissions that are sufficient to explain the magnitude and the timing of the late Holocene CO2 increase.
L. STOTT, A. TIMMERMANN AND R. THUNELL (2007)
Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO2 Rise and Tropical Warming, Science, 318, 5849, 435-438
Establishing what caused Earth’s largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. We determined the chronology of high- and low-latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by radiocarbon dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and magnesium/calcium records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep-sea temperatures warmed by [~]2{degrees}C between 19 and 17 thousand years before the present (ky B.P.), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical-surface-ocean warming by [~]1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep-water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19 and 17 ky B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral-spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be the key factors responsible for this warming. http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/318/5849/435 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global- Warming/Stott-Southern-Hemisphere-2007.pdf
R. STOTT (2012)
Contraction and convergence: the best possible solution to the twin problems of climate change and inequity, British Medical Journal, 344,
G. V. Subbarao, K. Nakahara, M. P. Hurtado, H. Ono, D. E. Moreta, A. F. Salcedo, A. T. Yoshihashi, T. Ishikawa, M. Ishitani, M. Ohnishi-Kameyama, M. Yoshida, M. Rondon, I. M. Rao, C. E. Lascano, W. L. Berry and O. Ito (2009)
Evidence for biological nitrification inhibition in Brachiaria pastures, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106, 41, 17302-17307
Nitrification, a key process in the global nitrogen cycle that generates nitrate through microbial activity, may enhance losses of fertilizer nitrogen by leaching and denitrification. Certain plants can suppress soil-nitrification by releasing inhibitors from roots, a phenomenon termed biological nitrification inhibition (BNI). Here, we report the discovery of an effective nitrification inhibitor in the root-exudates of the tropical forage grass Brachiaria humidicola (Rendle) Schweick. Named “brachialactone,” this inhibitor is a recently discovered cyclic diterpene with a unique 5-8-5-membered ring system and a gamma-lactone ring. It contributed 60-90% of the inhibitory activity released from the roots of this tropical grass. Unlike nitrapyrin (a synthetic nitrification inhibitor), which affects only the ammonia monooxygenase (AMO) pathway, brachialactone appears to block both AMO and hydroxylamine oxidoreductase enzymatic pathways in Nitrosomonas. Release of this inhibitor is a regulated plant function, triggered and sustained by the availability of ammonium (NH4+) in the root environment. Brachialactone release is restricted to those roots that are directly exposed to NH4+. Within 3 years of establishment, Brachiaria pastures have suppressed soil nitrifier populations (determined as amoA genes; ammonia-oxidizing bacteria and ammonia-oxidizing archaea), along with nitrification and nitrous oxide emissions. These findings provide direct evidence for the existence and active regulation of a nitrification inhibitor (or inhibitors) release from tropical pasture root systems. Exploiting the BNI function could become a powerful strategy toward the development of low-nitrifying agronomic systems, benefiting both agriculture and the environment.
M. K. TAYLOR, J. LAAKE, P. D. MCLOUGHLIN, H. D. CLUFF, E. W. BORN, A. ROSING-ASVID AND F. MESSIER (2008)
Population parameters and harvest risks for polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of Kane Basin, Canada and Greenland, Polar Biology, 31, 4, 491-499
We estimated demographic parameters and current harvest risks for a population of polar bears (Ursus maritimus Phipps) inhabiting northern Smith Sound and Kane Basin, Canada and Greenland. Our demographic analysis included a detailed assessment of age- and sex-specific survival and recruitment from 141 marked polar bears, using information contained within the standing age distribution of captures and mark-recapture analysis. Total survival rates ((x) over bar +/- 1 SE) for females were: 0.374 +/- 0.180 (cubs), 0.686 +/- 0.157 (ages 1-4), and 0.967 +/- 0.043 (ages 5+). Mean litter size was 1.67 +/- 0.08 cubs. Females did not reproduce until at least age 6, which is late compared to other populations of polar bears. The model-averaged, mark-recapture estimate of mean abundance (+/- 1 SE) for years 1994-1997 was 164 +/- 35 bears. We incorporated demographic parameters and their variances into a harvest risk analysis (i.e., a stochastic, harvested population viability analysis, PVA). Results suggest that polar bears in the region were severely over-harvested during the mark-recapture interval (1992- 1997). The current status of the population is unknown.
P. K. THORNTON, P. G. JONES, P. J. ERICKSEN AND A. J. CHALLINOR (2011)
Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4°C+ world, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 117-136
Agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa faces daunting challenges, which climate change and increasing climate variability will compound in vulnerable areas. The impacts of a changing climate on agricultural production in a world that warms by 4°C or more are likely to be severe in places. The livelihoods of many croppers and livestock keepers in Africa are associated with diversity of options. The changes in crop and livestock production that are likely to result in a 4°C+ world will diminish the options available to most smallholders. In such a world, current crop and livestock varieties and agricultural practices will often be inadequate, and food security will be more difficult to achieve because of commodity price increases and local production shortfalls. While adaptation strategies exist, considerable institutional and policy support will be needed to implement them successfully on the scale required. Even in the 2°C+ world that appears inevitable, planning for and implementing successful adaptation strategies are critical if agricultural growth in the region is to occur, food security be achieved and household livelihoods be enhanced. As part of this effort, better understanding of the critical thresholds in global and African food systems requires urgent research.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/117.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Thornton-Agriculture-Food-Sub-Saharan-2011.pdf
C. TIMMRECK AND H. F. GRAF (2006)
The initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super volcano: a model study, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6, 35-49
The chemistry climate model MAECHAM4/CHEM with interactive and prognostic volcanic aerosol and ozone was used to study the initial dispersal and radiative forcing of a possible Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude super eruption. Tropospheric climate anomalies are not analysed since sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. Our experiments show that the global dispersal of a super eruption located at Yellowstone, Wy. is strongly dependent on the season of the eruption. In Northern Hemisphere summer the volcanic cloud is transported westward and preferentially southward, while in Northern Hemisphere winter the cloud is transported eastward and more northward compared to the summer case. Aerosol induced heating leads to a more global spreading with a pronounced cross equatorial transport. For a summer eruption aerosol is transported much further to the Southern Hemisphere than for a winter eruption. In contrast to Pinatubo case studies, strong cooling tendencies appear with maximum peak values of less than -1.6K/ day three months after the eruption in the upper tropical stratosphere. This strong cooling effect weakens with decreasing aerosol density over time and initially prevents the aerosol laden air from further active rising. All-sky net radiative flux changes of less than -32W/m(2) at the surface are about a factor of 6 larger than for the Pinatubo eruption. Large positive flux anomalies of more than 16 W/m(2) are found in the first months in the tropics and sub tropics. These strong forcings call for a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/chemistry model to study climate sensitivity to such a super-eruption.
T. TRAINER (2010)
A CRITICAL DISCUSSION OF THE STERN AND IPCC ANALYSES OF CARBON EMISSION MITIGATION POSSIBILITIES AND COSTS, Energy & Environment, 21, 2, 49-73 Like the Stern Review the IPCC Working Group 3 Reports have been taken as showing that the greenhouse gas emissions problem can be solved at negligible cost, primarily by development of alternative energy technologies. The lengthy Fourth Assessment Report summarises the findings of many studies, rather than present analyses that can be clearly assessed. The argument in this paper is that most and probably all of the studies drawing conclusions about the mitigation potential of alternatives are invalid because they do not consider the possible limitations to renewable energy sources, nuclear energy and geo-sequestration. They are economic modelling studies which take the cost of a unit of carbon mitigation and multiply this by the amount of mitigation required, without regard to the difficulties and limits affecting the extent to which these sources can be scaled up. If the greenhouse problem is to be solved by resort to these technologies then the magnitude of the scale-ability problem is huge. This paper argues that there are major reasons why the alternatives cannot be scaled up sufficiently, and that it is not possible to explain how the anticipated 2050 energy budget could be met without exceeding safe greenhouse limits. If this analysis is sound Stern and the IPCC have been seriously misleading and the greenhouse problem cannot be solved at any cost in a society that is committed to affluent living standards and economic growth. The discussion accepts the climate science in both sources, and does not dispute the desirability of moving to renewable energy.
T. TRAINER (2012)
A CRITIQUE OF THE IPCC REPORT ON RENEWABLE ENERGY (2011A), Energy & Environment, 23, 5, 849-855
K. TRENBERTH (2005)
UNCERTAINTY IN HURRICANES AND GLOBAL WARMING, SCIENCE, 308, 5729, 1753-1754
K. TRENBERTH (2007)
CLIMATE CHANGE - WARMER OCEANS, STRONGER HURRICANES, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN, 297, 1, 44-51
H. L. TUOMISTO, I. D. HODGE, P. RIORDAN AND D. W. MACDONALD (2012)
Comparing global warming potential, energy use and land use of organic, conventional and integrated winter wheat production, Annals of Applied Biology, 161, 2, 116-126
To ensure a sustainable food supply for the growing population, the challenge is to find agricultural systems that can meet production requirements within environmental constraints and demands. This study compares the impacts of winter wheat production on energy use, land use and 100?years Global Warming Potential (GWP100) under different arable farming systems and farming practices. Life cycle assessment was used to simulate the impacts of organic, conventional and integrated farming (IF) systems along the production chain from input production up to the farm gate. The IF system models were designed to combine the best practices from organic and conventional systems to reduce negative environmental impacts without significant yield reductions. An integrated system that used food waste digestate as a fertiliser, and utilised pesticides and no-tillage had the lowest energy use and GWP per functional unit of 1000?kg wheat output. When the impacts of some specific practices for reducing energy use and GWP were compared, the highest energy use reductions were achieved by replacing synthetic nitrogen fertilisers with anaerobically treated food waste or nitrogen fixing crops, increasing yields through crop breeding and using no-tillage instead of ploughing. The highest GWP reductions were achieved by using nitrification inhibitors, replacing synthetic nitrogen fertilisers and increasing yields. The major contributors to the uncertainty range of energy use were associated with machinery fuel use and the assumed crop yields. For GWP results, the main source of uncertainty related to the N2O emissions. In conclusion, farming systems that combine the best practices from organic and conventional systems have potential to reduce negative environmental impacts while maintaining yield levels.
D. P. Van Vuuren, M. Meinshausen, G. K. Plattner, F. Joos, K. M. Strassmann, S. J. Smith, T. M. L. Wigley, S. C. B. Raper, K. Riahi, F. de la Chesnaye, M. G. J. den Elzen, J. Fujino, K. Jiang, N. Nakicenovic, S. Paltsev and J. M. Reilly (2008)
Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 105, 40, 15258-15262
Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximate to 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming.
R. K. VARSHNEY, K. C. BANSAL, P. K. AGGARWAL, S. K. DATTA AND P. Q. CRAUFURD (2011)
Agricultural biotechnology for crop improvement in a variable climate: hope or hype?, Trends in Plant Science, 16, 7, 363-371
Developing crops that are better adapted to abiotic stresses is important for food production in many parts of the world today. Anticipated changes in climate and its variability, particularly extreme temperatures and changes in rainfall, are expected to make crop improvement even more crucial for food production. Here, we review two key biotechnology approaches, molecular breeding and genetic engineering, and their integration with conventional breeding to develop crops that are more tolerant of abiotic stresses. In addition to a multi-disciplinary approach, we also examine some constraints that need to be overcome to realize the full potential of agricultural biotechnology for sustainable crop production to meet the demands of a projected world population of nine billion in 2050.
G. A. VECCHI AND T. R. KNUTSON (2011)
Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878-1965) Using Ship Track Density, Journal of Climate, 24, 6, 1736-1746
This study assesses the impact of imperfect sampling in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) on North Atlantic hurricane activity measures and on the long-term trends in those measures. The results indicate that a substantial upward adjustment of hurricane counts may be needed prior to 1965 to account for likely “missed” hurricanes due to sparse density of reporting ship traffic. After adjusting for the estimate of missed hurricanes in the basin, the long-term (1878-2008) trend in hurricane counts changes from significantly positive to no significant change (with a nominally negative trend). The adjusted hurricane count record is more strongly connected to the difference between main development region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical-mean SST than with MDR SST. These results do not support the hypothesis that the warming of the tropical North Atlantic due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has caused Atlantic hurricane frequency to increase.
G. A. VECCHI, K. L. SWANSON AND B. J. SODEN (2008)
CLIMATE CHANGE WHITHER HURRICANE ACTIVITY?, SCIENCE, 322, 5902, 687-689
G. VILLARINI, G. A. VECCHI, T. R. KNUTSON AND J. A. SMITH (2011)
Is the recorded increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 116, The number of North Atlantic tropical storms lasting 2 days or less exhibits a large increase starting from the middle of the 20th century, driving the increase in recorded number of tropical storms over the past century. Here we present a set of quantitative analyses to assess whether this behavior is more likely associated with climate variability/change or with changes in observing systems. By using statistical methods combined with the current understanding of the physical processes, we are unable to find support for the hypothesis that the century-scale record of short-lived tropical cyclones in the Atlantic contains a detectable real climate signal. Therefore, we interpret the long-term secular increase in short-duration North Atlantic tropical storms as likely to be substantially inflated by observing system changes over time. These results strongly suggest that studies examining the frequency of North Atlantic tropical storms over the historical era (between the 19th century and present) should focus on storms of duration greater than about 2 days.
G. VILLARINI, G. A. VECCHI AND J. A. SMITH (2012)
US Landfalling and North Atlantic Hurricanes: Statistical Modeling of Their Frequencies and Ratios, Monthly Weather Review, 140, 1, 44-65
Time series of U.S. landfalling and North Atlantic hurricane counts and their ratios over the period 1878 2008 are modeled using tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), tropical mean SST, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Two SST input datasets are employed to examine the uncertainties in the reconstructed SST data on the modeling results. Because of the likely undercount of recorded hurricanes in the earliest part of the record, both the uncorrected hurricane dataset (HURDAT) and a time series with a recently proposed undercount correction are considered. Modeling of the count data is performed using a conditional Poisson regression model, in which the rate of occurrence can depend linearly or nonlinearly on the climate indexes. Model selection is performed following a stepwise approach and using two penalty criteria. These results do not allow one to identify a single “best” model because of the different model configurations (different SST data, corrected versus uncorrected datasets, and penalty criteria). Despite the lack of an objectively identified unique final model, the authors recommend a set of models in which the parameter of the Poisson distribution depends linearly on tropical Atlantic and tropical mean SSTs. Modeling of the fractions of North Atlantic hurricanes making U.S. landfall is performed using a binomial regression model. Similar to the count data, it is not possible to identify a single best model, but different model configurations are obtained depending on the SST data, undercount correction, and penalty criteria These results suggest that these fractions are controlled by local (related to the NAO) and remote (SOI and tropical mean SST) effects.
P. VITTOZ, J. BODIN, S. UNGRICHT, C. BURGA AND G. R. WALTHER (2008)
One century of vegetation change on Isla Persa, a nunatak in the Bernina massif in the Swiss Alps, Journal of Vegetation Science, 19, 5, 671-U28
Question: How did the vascular plant species composition of a nunatak in the alpine vegetation belt change over a time span of 100 years? Location: A 5.6-ha nunatak, Isla Persa in the Swiss Alps, that remained ice-free during the last maximum glacier advance in the 1850s and is today partly covered with climactic alpine grassland and dwarf heath shrubs. Methods: Floristic inventories in 1906, 1927, 1972, 1995, 2003 and 2004 and a comparative analysis of the species composition over the period 1906-2004. Results: 31 species that were not recorded in the first inventory were found in the following surveys. However, among them only six were common by 2004. Generally, the new species prefer warmer conditions than those previously present and most newcomers are associated with montane or sub-alpine grasslands and woodlands. In particular, the observed increase of Vaccinium myrtillus and the arrival of shrub and tree species further substantiate a trend towards vegetation composition of the lower altitudinal belt. Ferns represented 26% of the newcomers, probably due to the high dispersal ability of their lightweight spores. The observed species enrichment was globally small compared to previously inventoried summits. Conclusion: Floristic change strongly suggests warmer climatic conditions as the main factor contributing to species compositional change. The relative stability of species richness may be explained by several factors: the isolation of the nunatak and the difficulties for plants to reach the site, the colder local climate, a limited available species pool and interactions of established alpine plants with newly immigrating taxa. Supplementary data collected at a similar altitude would be necessary to better understand the influence of climate change on alpine grasslands.
B. Wagner, A. F. Lotter, N. Nowaczyk, J. M. Reed, A. Schwalb, R. Sulpizio, V. Valsecchi, M. Wessels and G. Zanchetta (2009)
A 40,000-year record of environmental change from ancient Lake Ohrid (Albania and Macedonia), Journal of Paleolimnology, 41, 3, 407-430
Lake Ohrid is considered to be of Pliocene origin and is the oldest extant lake in Europe. A 1,075-cm-long sediment core was recovered from the southeastern part of the lake, from a water depth of 105 m. The core was investigated using geophysical, granulometric, biogeochemical, diatom, ostracod, and pollen analyses. Tephrochronology and AMS radiocarbon dating of plant macrofossils reveals that the sediment sequence spans the past ca. 39,500 years and features a hiatus between ca. 14,600 and 9,400 cal. year BP. The Pleistocene sequence indicates relatively stable and cold conditions, with steppe vegetation in the catchment, at least partial winter ice-cover of the lake, and oxygenated bottom waters at the coring site. The Holocene sequence indicates that the catchment vegetation had changed to forest dominated by pine and summer-green oak. Several of the proxies suggest the impact of abrupt climate oscillations such as the 8.2 or 4.0 ka event. The observed changes, however, cannot be related clearly to a change in temperature or humidity. Human impact started about 5,000 cal. year BP and increased significantly during the past 2,400 years. Water column mixing conditions, inflow from subaquatic springs, and human impact are the most important parameters influencing internal lake processes, notably affecting the composition and characteristics of the sediments.
J. WAINWRIGHT AND G. MANN (2013)
CLIMATE LEVIATHAN, ANTIPODE, 45, 1, 1-22
While there is much justifiable attention to the ecological implications of global climate change, the political implications are just as important for human well-being and social justice. We posit a basic framework by which to understand the range of political possibilities, in light of the response of global elites to climate warming and the challenges it poses to hegemonic institutional and conceptual modes of governance and accumulation. The framework also suggests some possible means through which these responses might be thwarted, and political stakes in that construction of a new hegemonywhich, to avoid suggesting we know or can yet determine the form it will take, we call climate X.
J. F. WALKER, L. E. HAY, S. L. MARKSTROM AND M. D. DETTINGER (2011)
Characterizing Climate-Change Impacts on the 1.5-yr Flood Flow in Selected Basins across the United States: A Probabilistic Approach, Earth Interactions, 15, The U. S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model was applied to basins in 14 different hydroclimatic regions to determine the sensitivity and variability of the freshwater resources of the United States in the face of current climate-change projections. Rather than attempting to choose a most likely scenario from the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an ensemble of climate simulations from five models under three emissions scenarios each was used to drive the basin models. Climate-change scenarios were generated for PRMS by modifying historical precipitation and temperature inputs; mean monthly climate change was derived by calculating changes in mean climates from current to various future decades in the ensemble of climate projections. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were fitted to the PRMS model output driven by the ensemble of climate projections and provided a basis for randomly (but representatively) generating realizations of hydrologic response to future climates. For each realization, the 1.5-yr flood was calculated to represent a flow important for sediment transport and channel geomorphology. The empirical probability density function (pdf) of the 1.5-yr flood was estimated using the results across the realizations for each basin. Of the 14 basins studied, 9 showed clear temporal shifts in the pdfs of the 1.5-yr flood projected into the twenty-first century. In the western United States, where the annual peak discharges are heavily influenced by snowmelt, three basins show at least a 10% increase in the 1.5-yr flood in the twenty-first century; the remaining two basins demonstrate increases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Four basins in the eastern Rockies/central United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining two basins demonstrate decreases in the 1.5-yr flood, but the temporal shifts in the pdfs and the percent changes are not as distinct. Two basins in the eastern United States show at least a 10% decrease in the 1.5-yr flood; the remaining basin shows little or no change in the 1.5-yr flood.
D. WANG, S. A. HECKATHORN, X. WANG AND S. M. PHILPOTT (2012)
A meta-analysis of plant physiological and growth responses to temperature and elevated CO2, Oecologia, 169, 1, 1-13
Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and global mean temperature are expected to be significantly higher by the end of the 21st century. Elevated CO2 (eCO(2)) and higher temperature each affect plant physiology and growth, but their interactive effects have not been reviewed statistically with respect to higher chronic mean temperatures and abrupt heat stress. In this meta-analysis, we examined the effect of CO2 on the physiology and growth of plants subjected to different temperature treatments. The CO2 treatments were categorized into ambient (< 400 ppm) or elevated (> 560 ppm) levels, while temperature treatments were categorized into ambient temperature (AT), elevated temperature (ET; AT + 1.4-6A degrees C), or heat stress (HS; AT + > 8A degrees C). Plant species were grouped according to photosynthetic pathways (C-3, C-4), functional types (legumes, non-legumes), growth forms (herbaceous, woody), and economic purposes (crop, non-crop). eCO(2) enhanced net photosynthesis at AT, ET, and HS in C-3 species (especially at the HS level), but in C-4 species, it had no effect at AT, a positive effect at ET, and a negative effect at HS. The positive effect of eCO(2) on net photosynthesis was greater for legumes than for non-legumes at HS, for non-crops than crops at ET, and for woody than herbaceous species at ET and HS. Total (W (T)) and above- (W (AG)) and below-ground (W (BG)) biomass were increased by eCO(2) for most species groups at all temperatures, except for C-4 species and W (BG) of legumes at HS. Hence, eCO(2) x heat effects on growth were often not explained by effects on net photosynthesis. Overall, the results show that eCO(2) effects on plant physiology and growth vary under different temperature regimes, among functional groups and photosynthetic pathways, and among response variables. These findings have important implications for biomass accumulation and ecosystem functioning in the future when the CO2 level is higher and climate extremes, such as heat waves, become more frequent.
R. WARREN (2011)
The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 217-241 The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth’s forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/217.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Warren-Role-Interactions-Implementing-2011.pdf
I. G. WATTERSON (2011)
Calculation of joint PDFs for climate change with properties matching recent Australian projections, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 61, 4, 211-219
The 2007 report Climate Change in Australia presented single-variable probability density functions for climatological change driven by global warming. However, their use is limited to climate impact applications involving one variable or if uncertainty in pairs of variables can be assumed to be independent. As is shown here, local changes in mean rainfall and temperature from 23 individual climate models are often strongly anticorrelated, particularly for summer and annual cases in inland Australia. Relatively large warming tends to coincide with declines in rainfall. A simple iterative approach is developed that produces a joint density function for the pair that includes this anticorrelation and has marginal distributions matching the single-variable ones. An extension of the approach to three variables was also successful. These joint functions can be used in applications where two or more related variables are important. The approach is illustrated using results for Dubbo, New South Wales, in 2070 under the A1B forcing scenario. A brief comparison of the method to an alternative of using a Gaussian copula is made.
A. P. WEBB AND P. S. KENCH (2010) The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific, Global and Planetary Change, In Press, Corrected Proof, Low-lying atoll islands are widely perceived to erode in response to measured and future sea-level rise. Using historical aerial photography and satellite images this study presents the first quantitative analysis of physical changes in 27 atoll islands in the central Pacific over a 19 to 61 yr period. This period of analysis corresponds with instrumental records that show a rate of sea-level rise of 2.0 mm yr- 1 in the Pacific. Results show that 86% of islands remained stable (43%) or increased in area (43%) over the timeframe of analysis. Largest decadal rates of increase in island area range between 0.1 to 5.6 ha. Only 14% of study islands exhibited a net reduction in island area. Despite small net changes in area, islands exhibited larger gross changes. This was expressed as changes in the planform configuration and position of islands on reef platforms. Modes of island change included: ocean shoreline displacement toward the lagoon; lagoon shoreline progradation; and, extension of the ends of elongate islands. Collectively these adjustments represent net lagoonward migration of islands in 65% of cases. Results contradict existing paradigms of island response and have significant implications for the consideration of island stability under ongoing sea-level rise in the central Pacific. First, islands are geomorphologically persistent features on atoll reef platforms and can increase in island area despite sea-level change. Second, islands are dynamic landforms that undergo a range of physical adjustments in responses to changing boundary conditions, of which sea level is just one factor. Third, erosion of island shorelines must be reconsidered in the context of physical adjustments of the entire island shoreline as erosion may be balanced by progradation on other sectors of shorelines. Results indicate that the style and magnitude of geomorphic change will vary between islands. Therefore, island nations must place a high priority on resolving the precise styles and rates of change that will occur over the next century and reconsider the implications for adaption.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VF0-504BT2S-1/2/1382dccc4f92f19f3e47af532901ad0e AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Webb-Dynamic-Response-Sea-Level-2010.pdf AND Weltwoche http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming-Weltwoche/Reichmuth-Tuvalu-Weltwoche-20100610.pdf
W. WENDE, A. BOND, N. BOBYLEV AND L. STRATMANN (2011)
Climate change mitigation and adaptation in strategic environmental assessment, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 32, 1, 88-93
Countries are implementing CO2 emission reduction targets in order to meet a globally agreed global warming limit of +2 °C. However, it was hypothesised that these national reduction targets are not translated to regional or state level planning, and are not considered through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in order to meet emission reduction obligations falling on the transport, energy, housing, agriculture, and forestry sectors. SEAs of land use plans in the German state of Saxony, and the English region of the East of England were examined for their consideration of climate change impacts based on a set of criteria drawn from the literature. It was found that SEAs in both cases failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the spatial plan, and that CO2 reduction targets were not considered. This suggests a need for more clarity in the legal obligations for climate change consideration within the text of the SEA Directive, a requirement for monitoring of carbon emissions, a need for methodological guidance to devolve global climate change targets down to regional and local levels, and a need for guidance on properly implementing climate change protection in SEA.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0195925511000655 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Wende-Climate-Change-Adaptation-2011.pdf
W. WENDE, A. BOND, N. BOBYLEV AND L. STRATMANN (2012)
Climate change mitigation and adaptation in strategic environmental assessment, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 32, 1, 88-93
Countries are implementing CO(2) emission reduction targets in order to meet a globally agreed global warming limit of +2 degrees C. However, it was hypothesised that these national reduction targets are not translated to regional or state level planning, and are not considered through Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in order to meet emission reduction obligations falling on the transport, energy, housing, agriculture, and forestry sectors. SEAs of land use plans in the German state of Saxony, and the English region of the East of England were examined for their consideration of climate change impacts based on a set of criteria drawn from the literature. It was found that SEAs in both cases failed to consider climate change impacts at scales larger than the boundary of the spatial plan, and that CO(2) reduction targets were not considered. This suggests a need for more clarity in the legal obligations for climate change consideration within the text of the SEA Directive, a requirement for monitoring of carbon emissions, a need for methodological guidance to devolve global climate change targets down to regional and local levels, and a need for guidance on properly implementing climate change protection in SEA. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
J. J. WIENS AND C. H. GRAHAM (2005)
NICHE CONSERVATISM: Integrating Evolution, Ecology, and Conservation Biology, Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 36, 1, 519-539
▪ Abstract‒ Niche conservatism is the tendency of species to retain ancestral ecological characteristics. In the recent literature, a debate has emerged as to whether niches are conserved. We suggest that simply testing whether niches are conserved is not by itself particularly helpful or interesting and that a more useful focus is on the patterns that niche conservatism may (or may not) create. We focus specifically on how niche conservatism in climatic tolerances may limit geographic range expansion and how this one type of niche conservatism may be important in (a) allopatric speciation, (b) historical biogeography, (c) patterns of species richness, (d) community structure, (e) the spread of invasive, human-introduced species, (f) responses of species to global climate change, and (g) human history, from 13,000 years ago to the present. We describe how these effects of niche conservatism can be examined with new tools for ecological niche modeling. http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.36.102803.095431 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Biotech-Biodiv/Wiens-Nieche-Conservatism-2005.pdf
D. M. WILKINSON (2004) Do we need a process-based approach to nature conservation? Continuing the parable of Green Mountain, Ascension Island, Journal of Biogeography, 31, 12, 2041-2042
C. J. R. WILLIAMS AND D. R. KNIVETON (2012)
Atmosphere-land surface interactions and their influence on extreme rainfall and potential abrupt climate change over southern Africa, Climatic Change, 112, 3-4, 981-996
In a changing climate, changes in rainfall variability and, in particular, extreme rainfall events are likely to be highly significant for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures play an important role in modulating rainfall variability, thus the majority work to date has focused on these mechanisms. However past research suggests that land surface processes are also critical for rainfall variability. In particular, work has suggested that the atmosphere-land surface feedback has been important for past abrupt climate changes, such as those which occurred over the Sahara during the mid-Holocene or, more recently, the prolonged Sahelian drought. Therefore the primary aim of this work is to undertake idealised experiments using both a regional and global climate model, to test the sensitivity of rainfall variability to land surface changes over a location where such abrupt climate changes are projected to occur in the future, namely southern Africa. In one experiment, the desert conditions currently observed over southwestern Africa were extended to cover the entire subcontinent. This is based on past research which suggests a remobilisation of sand dune activity and spatial extent under various scenarios of future anthropogenic global warming. In the second experiment, savanna conditions were imposed over all of southern Africa, representing an increase in vegetation for most areas except the equatorial regions. The results suggest that a decrease in rainfall occurs in the desert run, up to 27% of total rainfall in the regional model (relative to the control), due to a reduction in available moisture, less evaporation, less vertical uplift and therefore higher near surface pressure. This result is consistent across both the regional and global model experiments. Conversely an increase in rainfall occurs in the savanna run, because of an increase in available moisture giving an increase in latent heat and therefore surface temperature, increasing vertical uplift and lowering near surface pressure. These experiments, however, are only preliminary, and form the first stage of a wider study into how the atmosphere-land surface feedback influences rainfall extremes over southern Africa in the past (when surface i.e. vegetation conditions were very different) and in the future under various scenarios of future climate change. Future work will examine how other climate models simulate the atmosphere-land surface feedback, using more realistic vegetation types based on past and future surface conditions.
C. J. R. WILLIAMS, D. R. KNIVETON AND R. LAYBERRY (2010)
Idealized SST anomaly regional climate model experiments: A note of caution, Progress in Physical Geography, 34, 1, 59-74 To date, a number of studies have focused on the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on global and regional rainfall variability, with the majority of these focusing on certain ocean basins - eg, the Pacific, North Atlantic and Indian Ocean. In contrast, relatively less work has been done on the influence of the central South Atlantic, particularly in relation to rainfall over southern Africa. Previous work by the authors, using reanalysis data and general circulation model (GCM) experiments, has suggested that cold SST anomalies in the central southern Atlantic Ocean are linked to an increase in rainfall extremes across southern Africa. In this paper we present results from idealized regional climate model (RCM) experiments forced with both positive and negative SST anomalies in the southern Atlantic Ocean. These experiments reveal an unexpected response of rainfall over southern Africa. In particular, it was found that SST anomalies of opposite sign can cause similar rainfall responses in the model experiments, with isolated increases in rainfall over central southern Africa as well as a large region of drying over the Mozambique Channel. The purpose of this paper is to highlight this finding and explore explanations for the behaviour of the climate model. It is suggested that the observed changes in rainfall might result from the redistribution of energy (associated with upper-level changes to Rossby waves) or, of more concern, model error, and therefore the paper concludes that the results of idealized regional climate models forced with SST anomalies should be viewed cautiously.
N. WILLIAMS (2007)
POLAR BEARS SHIFT FROM THINNING ICE, CURRENT BIOLOGY, 17, 15, R571-R572
A 20-year project monitoring Alaskan polar bears has found that they are increasingly abandoning sea ice in favour of land for breeding. Nigel Williams reports.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982207016995 AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Williams-Polar-Bears-Shift-2007.pdf
K. J. WILLIS AND G. M. MACDONALD (2011)
Long-Term Ecological Records and Their Relevance to Climate Change Predictions for a Warmer World, Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Vol 42, D. J. Futuyma, H. B. Shaffer and D. Simberloff, 42, 267-287
This review focuses on biotic responses during intervals of time in the fossil record when the magnitude and rate of climate change exceeded or were comparable with those predicted to occur in the next century (Solomon et al. 2007). These include biotic responses during: (a) the Paleo-Eocene Thermal Maximum and early Eocene Climatic Optimum, (b) the mid-Pliocene warm interval, (c) the Eemian, and (d) the most recent glacial-interglacial transition into the Holocene. We argue that although the mechanisms responsible for these past changes in climate were different (i.e., natural processes rather than anthropogenic), the rate and magnitude of climate change were often similar to those predicted for the next century and therefore highly relevant to understanding future biotic responses. In all intervals we examine the fossil evidence for the three most commonly predicted future biotic scenarios, namely, extirpation, migration (in the form of a permanent range shift), or adaptation. Focusing predominantly on the terrestrial plant fossil record, we find little evidence for extirpation during warmer intervals; rather, range shifts, community turnover, adaptation, and sometimes an increase in diversity are observed.
M. WINIGER AND K. AMMANN (1973)
Welt von Oben, Oberaar Vegetationskarte, Der Bund, Bern, Der Bund, 254, 4
http://www.ask-force.org/web/Oberaar/Welt-von-Oben-Bund-19731030.PDF
B. Wolf, X. Zheng, N. Bruggemann, W. Chen, M. Dannenmann, X. Han, M. A. Sutton, H. Wu, Z. Yao and K. Butterbach-Bahl (2010)
Grazing-induced reduction of natural nitrous oxide release from continental steppe, Nature, 464, 7290, 881-884
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08931 AND http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v464/n7290/suppinfo/nature08931_S1.html AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Wolf-Grazing-Induced-2010.pdf
E. W. Wolff, C. Barbante, S. Becagli, M. Bigler, C. F. Boutron, E. Castellano, M. de Angelis, U. Federer, H. Fischer, F. Fundel, M. Hansson, M. Hutterli, U. Jonsell, T. Karlin, P. Kaufmann, F. Lambert, G. C. Littot, R. Mulvaney, R. Rothlisberger, U. Ruth, M. Severi, M. L. Siggaard-Andersen, L. C. Sime, J. P. Steffensen, T. F. Stocker, R. Traversi, B. Twarloh, R. Udisti, D. Wagenbach and A. Wegner (2010)
Changes in environment over the last 800,000 years from chemical analysis of the EPICA Dome C ice core, Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 1-2, 285-295
The EPICA ice core from Dome C extends 3259 m in depth, and encompasses 800 ka of datable and sequential ice. Numerous chemical species have been measured along the length of the cores. Here we concentrate on interpreting the main low-resolution patterns of major ions. We extend the published record for non-sea-salt calcium, sea-salt sodium and non-sea-salt sulfate flux to 800 ka. The non-sea-salt calcium record confirms that terrestrial dust originating from South America closely mirrored Antarctic climate, both at orbital and millennial timescales. A major cause of the main trends is most likely climate in southern South America, which could be sensitive to subtle changes in atmospheric circulation. Sea-salt sodium also follows temperature, but With a threshold at low temperature. We re-examine the use of sodium as a sea ice proxy, concluding that it is probably reflecting extent, with high salt concentrations reflecting larger ice extents. With this interpretation, the sodium flux record indicates low ice extent operating as an amplifier in warm interglacials. Non-sea-salt sulfate flux is almost constant along the core, confirming the lack of change in marine productivity (for sulfur-producing organisms) in the areas of the Southern Ocean contributing to the flux at Dome C. For the first time we also present long records of reversible species such as nitrate and chloride, and show that the pattern of post- depositional losses described for shallower ice is maintained in older ice. It appears possible to use these concentrations to constrain snow accumulation rates in interglacial ice at this site, and the results suggest a possible correction to accumulation rates in one early interglacial. Taken together the chemistry records offer a number of constraints on the way the Earth system combined to give the major climate fluctuations of the late Quaternary period. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
R. WOOD (2008)
CLIMATE CHANGE: NATURAL UPS AND DOWNS, NATURE, 453, 7191, 43-45
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/453043a AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Wood-Ups-Downs- 2008.pdf
R. WORDSWORTH AND R. PIERREHUMBERT (2013)
Hydrogen-Nitrogen Greenhouse Warming in Earth’s Early Atmosphere, Science, 339, 6115, 64-67
Understanding how Earth has sustained surface liquid water throughout its history remains a key challenge, given that the Sun’s luminosity was much lower in the past. Here we show that with an atmospheric composition consistent with the most recent constraints, the early Earth would have been significantly warmed by H-2-N-2 collision-induced absorption. With two to three times the present-day atmospheric mass of N-2 and a H-2 mixing ratio of 0.1, H-2-N-2 warming would be sufficient to raise global mean surface temperatures above 0 degrees C under 75% of present-day solar flux, with CO2 levels only 2 to 25 times the present-day values. Depending on their time of emergence and diversification, early methanogens may have caused global cooling via the conversion of H- 2 and CO2 to CH4, with potentially observable consequences in the geological record.
P. WU, R. WOOD, J. RIDLEY AND J. LOWE (2010)
Temporary acceleration of the hydrological cycle in response to a CO2 rampdown, Geophysical Research Letters, 37, 12, L12705
Current studies of the impact of climate change mitigation options tend to scale patterns of precipitation change linearly with surface temperature. Using climate model simulations, we show a nonlinear hydrological response to transient global warming and a substantial side effect of climate mitigation. In an idealised representation of mitigation action, where we reverse the trend of global warming, the precipitation response shows significant hysteresis behaviour due to heat previously accumulated in the ocean. Stabilising or reducing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is found temporarily to strengthen the global hydrological cycle, while reducing rainfall over some tropical and subtropical regions. The drying trend under global warming over The Amazon, Australia and western Africa may intensify for decades after CO2 reductions. The inertia due to accumulated heat in the ocean implies a commitment to hydrological cycle changes long after stabilisation or reduction of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043730 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Wu-Temporary- Acceleration-CO2-Rampdown-2010.pdf
K. YAN, P. CHEN, H. SHAO, L. ZHANG AND G. XU (2011)
Effects of Short-Term High Temperature on Photosynthesis and Photosystem II Performance in Sorghum, Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, 197, 5, 400-408
Gas exchange and chlorophyll a fluorescence transient were examined in leaves of sorghum at high temperatures. No changes were found in photosynthetic rate (Pn) and photosystem II (PS II) performance index on absorption base (PI(abs)) at 40 °C for 1 h. But transpiration rate was enhanced significantly, which served as a self-protection response for dissipating heat. The Pn decreased significantly at 40 °C for 3 h, and the decrease became greater at 45 °C. Decrease in Pn mainly resulted from stomatal limitation at 40 °C for 3 h, whereas it was due to non-stomatal limitation at 45 °C. Decline in PS II function indicated by the significant decrease in PI(abs), trapped energy flux and electron transport flux were responsible for the decrease in Pn at 45 °C. PS II reaction centre and oxygen-evolving complex in the donor side were not affected at high temperatures, but electron transport in the acceptor side was sensitive to high temperature. The PS II function recovered completely 1 day after high temperature stress even as high as 45 °C, which is favourable for sorghum to meet the challenge of global warming. However, Pn did not completely recover possibly due to heat-induced irreversible damage to CO2 fixation process. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1439-037X.2011.00469.x AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Yan- Effects-Short-Term-High-Temp-Sorghum-2011.pdf
K. YAN, P. CHEN, H. SHAO, S. ZHAO, L. ZHANG, G. XU AND J. SUN (2012)
Responses of Photosynthesis and Photosystem II to Higher Temperature and Salt Stress in Sorghum, Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science, 198, 3, 218-226
Gas exchange and chlorophyll a fluorescence transient were examined in leaves of sorghum under salt stress and high temperature. During salt treatment with 50 and 150 mm NaCl, photosynthetic rate (Pn) decreased, which could be ascribed to stomatal limitation. Salt stress had no effect on photosystem II (PSII) activity. At high temperatures, PSII function was inhibited in leaves of sorghum, indicated by the decrease in PSII performance index on absorption base and PSII maximal photochemistry efficiency (Fv/Fm); however, the decrease was lower in salt-treated sorghum, suggesting that salt adaption enhanced heat tolerance of PSII. The enhanced heat resistance can be expressed on all the components of PSII including reaction centre, donor side and acceptor side. Consistently, a slight decrease in Pn was found in salt-treated sorghum at high temperatures, indicating that salt adaption also enhanced heat tolerance of photosynthesis. Proline plays an important protective role in plant response to environmental stress, and its large accumulation in salt-treated sorghum might be the underlying reason leading to the enhanced heat tolerance. As for this pattern of photosynthetic response, sorghum seems to be a reliable crop species for human beings in the face of global warming and increasing salinity of agricultural land.
C. YAPP AND H. POTHS (1992)
Ancient atmospheric C02 pressures inferred from natural goethites, Nature, 355, Letter to Nature, 342-344
THE role of changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in controlling global temperature can be investigated by examining variations in both CO2 and climate preserved in the Earth’s geological record. A model of the Earth’s carbon cycle over the past 570 Myr suggests that, compared to its present value, the partial pressure of CO2 (P co2) may have been an order of magnitude higher in the early Palaeozoic, and about 4–6 times higher in the middle Mesozoic1,2. Cerling3 used carbon isotope ratios in soil carbonate minerals to constrain atmospheric P Co2m portions of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic eras. Studies of the common mineral goethite (α-FeOOH) have shown that it contains small quantities of a carbonate component (Fe(CO3)OH), the concentration and carbon isotope content of which preserves a record of ambient P Co2at the time of formation4–7. Here we present data for goethites from an ironstone in the Upper Ordovician Neda Formation (Wisconsin, USA)8, which suggest that 440 Myr ago atmospheric P Co2 was ~ 16 times higher than today. However, this enhanced level of atmospheric CO2 does not seem to have been accompanied by unusually warm temperatures in the tropics, and in fact may have been contemporaneous with high-latitude continental glaciation on Gondwanaland9,10. http://www.force.org/web/Global-Warming/Yapp-Ancient-Atmospheric-CO2-Pressures-1992.pdf
S. YASHINA, S. GUBIN, S. MAKSIMOVICH, A. YASHINA, E. GAKHOVA AND D. GILICHINSKY (2012)
Regeneration of whole fertile plants from 30,000-y-old fruit tissue buried in Siberian permafrost, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109, 10, 4008-4013
Whole, fertile plants of Silene stenophylla Ledeb. (Caryophyllaceae) have been uniquely regenerated from maternal, immature fruit tissue of Late Pleistocene age using in vitro tissue culture and clonal micropropagation. The fruits were excavated in northeastern Siberia from fossil squirrel burrows buried at a depth of 38 m in undisturbed and never thawed Late Pleistocene permafrost sediments with a temperature of −7 °C. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dating showed fruits to be 31,800 ± 300 y old. The total γ-radiation dose accumulated by the fruits during this time was calculated as 0.07 kGy; this is the maximal reported dose after which tissues remain viable and seeds still germinate. Regenerated plants were brought to flowering and fruiting and they set viable seeds. At present, plants of S. stenophylla are the most ancient, viable, multicellular, living organisms. Morphophysiological studies comparing regenerated and extant plants obtained from modern seeds of the same species in the same region revealed that they were distinct phenotypes of S. stenophylla. The first generation cultivated from seeds obtained from regenerated plants progressed through all developmental stages and had the same morphological features as parent plants. The investigation showed high cryoresistance of plant placental tissue in permafrost. This natural cryopreservation of plant tissue over many thousands of years demonstrates a role for permafrost as a depository for an ancient gene pool, i.e., preexisting life, which hypothetically has long since vanished from the earth’s surface, a potential source of ancient germplasm, and a laboratory for the study of rates of microevolution.
10.1073/pnas.1118386109 AND http://www.pnas.org/content/109/10/4008.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Yashina-Regeneration-30000-year-Silene-stenophylla-2012.pdf AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Silene-Stenophylla-30000-years-2012.ppt
S. Zakhrabekova, S. P. Gough, I. Braumann, A. H. Muller, J. Lundqvist, K. Ahmann, C. Dockter, I. Matyszczak, M. Kurowska, A. Druka, R. Waugh, A. Graner, N. Stein, B. Steuernagel, U. Lundqvist and M. Hansson (2012)
Induced mutations in circadian clock regulator Mat-a facilitated short-season adaptation and range extension in cultivated barley, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 11, 4326- 4331
Time to flowering has an important impact on yield and has been a key trait in the domestication of crop plants and the spread of agriculture. In 1961, the cultivar Mari (mat-a. 8) was the very first induced early barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) mutant to be released into commercial production. Mari extended the range of two-row spring barley cultivation as a result of its photoperiod insensitivity. Since its release, Mari or its derivatives have been used extensively across the world to facilitate short-season adaptation and further geographic range extension. By exploiting an extended historical collection of early-flowering mutants of barley, we identified Praematurum-a (Mat-a), the gene responsible for this key adaptive phenotype, as a homolog of the Arabidopsis thaliana circadian clock regulator Early Flowering 3 (Elf3). We characterized 87 induced mat-a mutant lines and identified >20 different mat-a alleles that had clear mutations leading to a defective putative ELF3 protein. Expression analysis of HvElf3 and Gigantea in mutant and wild-type plants demonstrated that mat-a mutations disturb the flowering pathway, leading to the early phenotype. Alleles of Mat-a therefore have important and demonstrated breeding value in barley but probably also in many other day-length-sensitive crop plants, where they may tune adaptation to different geographic regions and climatic conditions, a critical issue in times of global warming.
P. ZELAZOWSKI, Y. MALHI, C. HUNTINGFORD, S. SITCH AND J. B. FISHER (2011)
Changes in the potential distribution of humid tropical forests on a warmer planet, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369, 1934, 137-160
The future of tropical forests has become one of the iconic issues in climate-change science. A number of studies that have explored this subject have tended to focus on the output from one or a few climate models, which work at low spatial resolution, whereas society and conservation-relevant assessment of potential impacts requires a finer scale. This study focuses on the role of climate on the current and future distribution of humid tropical forests (HTFs). We first characterize their contemporary climatological niche using annual rainfall and maximum climatological water stress, which also adequately describe the current distribution of other biomes within the tropics. As a first-order approximation of the potential extent of HTFs in future climate regimes defined by global warming of 2°C and 4°C, we investigate changes in the niche through a combination of climate-change anomaly patterns and higher resolution (5 km) maps of current climatology. The climate anomalies are derived using data from 17 coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used in the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our results confirm some risk of forest retreat, especially in eastern Amazonia, Central America and parts of Africa, but also indicate a potential for expansion in other regions, for example around the Congo Basin. The finer spatial scale enabled the depiction of potential resilient and vulnerable zones with practically useful detail. We further refine these estimates by considering the impact of new environmental regimes on plant water demand using the UK Met Office land-surface scheme (of the HadCM3 AOGCM). The CO2-related reduction in plant water demand lowers the risk of die-back and can lead to possible niche expansion in many regions. The analysis presented here focuses primarily on hydrological determinants of HTF extent. We conclude by discussing the role of other factors, notably the physiological effects of higher temperature. http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/137.abstract AND http://www.ask- force.org/web/Global-Warming/Zelazowski-Changes-Potential-Tropical-2011.pdf
Q. ZHANG, P. SUN, V. P. SINGH AND X. CHEN (2012)
Spatial-temporal precipitation changes (1956-2000) and their implications for agriculture in China, Global and Planetary Change, 82-83, 86-95
Global warming is believed to be accelerating the hydrological cycle and hence altering the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation changes. This study investigates precipitation changes in both time and space and also the spatial distribution of natural hazards and irrigation areas, and implications for agricultural development in China. Results indicate that: (1) decreasing precipitation is prevailing in spring and autumn and winter is dominated by increasing precipitation. Seasonal shifts in precipitation may pose new challenges for water resource management and for agriculture production in China; (2) spatial distribution of natural hazards and hazard-induced loss of crops is in agreement with spatial patterns of precipitation changes. Generally, northwestern, northern and northeastern parts of China are influenced by droughts; whereas eastern and southeastern parts are prone to floods; and (3) the spatial distribution of irrigation areas and irrigation requirements are in line with that of precipitation changes, implying critical impacts of precipitation changes on agriculture. Current irrigation practices are inefficient and wasteful. Therefore, water-saving agriculture and water-saving agricultural technologies are required for sustainable agricultural development. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
X. ZHANG, W.-C. WANG, X. FANG, Y. YE AND J. ZHENG (2012)
Agriculture Development-induced Surface Albedo Changes and Climatic Implications Across Northeastern China, Chinese Geographical Science, 22, 3, 264-277 To improve the understandings on regional climatic effects of past human-induced land cover changes, the surface albedo changes caused by conversions from natural vegetation to cropland were estimated across northeastern China over the last 300 years, and its climatic effects were simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Essential natural vegetation records compiled from historical documents and regional optimal surface albedo dataset were used. The results show that the surface albedo decreased by 0.01-0.03 due to conversions from grassland to cropland in the Northeast China Plain and it increased by 0.005-0.015 due to conversions from forests to cropland in the surrounding mountains. As a consequence, in the Northeast China Plain, the surface net radiation increased by 4-8 W/m(2), 2-5 W/m(2), and 1-3 W/m(2), and the climate was therefore warmed by 0.1 degrees C-0.2 degrees C, 0.1 degrees C-0.2 degrees C, 0.1 degrees C-0.3 degrees C in the spring, autumn and winter, respectively. In the surrounding mountain area, the net radiation decreased by less than 1.5 W/m(2), and the climate was therefore cooled too slight to be detected. In summer, effects of surface albedo changes on climate were closely associated with moisture dynamics, such as evapotranspiration and cloud, instead of being merely determined by surface radiation budget. The simulated summer climatic effects have large uncertainties. These findings demonstrate that surface albedo changes resulted in warming climate effects in the non-rainy seasons in Northeast China Plain through surface radiation processes while the climatic effects in summer could hardly be concluded so far.
Y. ZHANG, S. SU, F. ZHANG, R. SHI AND W. GAO (2012)
Characterizing Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Methane Emissions from Rice Paddies in Northeast China from 1990 to 2010, Plos One, 7, 1, Background: Rice paddies have been identified as major methane (CH4) source induced by human activities. As a major rice production region in Northern China, the rice paddies in the Three-Rivers Plain (TRP) have experienced large changes in spatial distribution over the recent 20 years (from 1990 to 2010). Consequently, accurate estimation and characterization of spatiotemporal patterns of CH4 emissions from rice paddies has become an pressing issue for assessing the environmental impacts of agroecosystems, and further making GHG mitigation strategies at regional or global levels. Methodology/Principal Findings: Integrating remote sensing mapping with a process-based biogeochemistry model, Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC), was utilized to quantify the regional CH4 emissions from the entire rice paddies in study region. Based on site validation and sensitivity tests, geographic information system (GIS) databases with the spatially differentiated input information were constructed to drive DNDC upscaling for its regional simulations. Results showed that (1) The large change in total methane emission that occurred in 2000 and 2010 compared to 1990 is distributed to the explosive growth in amounts of rice planted; (2) the spatial variations in CH4 fluxes in this study are mainly attributed to the most sensitive factor soil properties, i.e., soil clay fraction and soil organic carbon (SOC) content, and (3) the warming climate could enhance CH4 emission in the cool paddies. Conclusions/Significance: The study concluded that the introduction of remote sensing analysis into the DNDC upscaling has a great capability in timely quantifying the methane emissions from cool paddies with fast land use and cover changes. And also, it confirmed that the northern wetland agroecosystems made great contributions to global greenhouse gas inventory.
J. ZHENG, Q. GE, Z. HAO AND W.-C. WANG (2006)
Spring Phenophases in Recent Decades Over Eastern China and Its Possible Link to Climate Changes, Climatic Change, 77, 3, 449-462
Abstract In light of the observed climate changes in recent decades over eastern China, we studied the changes in spring phenophases of woody plants observed at 16-stations during 1963–1996, and explored the possible link between the spring phenophases changes and climate changes before the phenophase onset. It is found that, in the region north of 33 N (including Northeast, North China and the lower reaches of the Huaihe River), the phenophase advanced 1.1–4.3 days per decade for early spring and 1.4–5.4 days per decade for late ∘ spring, but in the eastern part of the southwest China it was dealyed by 2.9–6.9 days per decade in early spring and 2.4–6.2 days per decade in late spring. One outstanding feature is identified in Guangzhou in south China, where significant advance of 7.5 days per decade in early spring and delay of 4.6 days per decade in late spring were detected. Statistically siginficant correlation was found between the changes of spring phenophase and the temperatures of one or several months before the phenophase onset. The relationship between the trend of phenophase change and temperature change was highly non-linear (more sensitivity to cooling than to warming) and reached an asymptote 0.5 C per decade, which may have implication in the responses of the ecosystem in a future global warming scenario. In addition, we also examined the link between the spring phenophase, and length ∘ and mean temperature of the growing season, and the analyses suggested that they were highly correlated as well. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9038-6 AND http://www.botanischergarten.ch/Global-Warming/Zhen- Spring-Phenophases.2006.pdf
T. ZIEHN, J. KATTGE, W. KNORR AND M. SCHOLZE (2011)
Improving the predictability of global CO2 assimilation rates under climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and the atmosphere have the potential to greatly modify expected rates of future climate change. This makes it all the more urgent to exploit all existing data for the purpose of accurate modelling of the underlying processes. Here we use a Bayesian random sampling method to constrain parameters of the Farquhar model of leaf photosynthesis and a model of leaf respiration against a comprehensive set of plant trait data at the leaf level. The resulting probability density function (PDF) of model parameters is contrasted with a PDF derived using a conventional “expert knowledge” approach. When running the Biosphere Energy Transfer Hydrology (BETHY) scheme with a 1000- member sub-sample of each of the two PDFs for present climate and a climate scenario, we find that the use of plant trait data is able to reduce the uncertainty range of simulated net leaf assimilation (NLA) by more than a factor of two. Most of the remaining variability is caused by only four parameters, associated with the acclimation of photosynthesis to plant growth temperature and to how leaf stomata react to atmospheric CO2 concentration. We suggest that this method should be used extensively to parameterize Earth system models, given that data bases on plant traits are increasingly being made available to the modelling community. Citation: Ziehn, T., J. Kattge, W. Knorr, and M. Scholze (2011), Improving the predictability of global CO2 assimilation rates under climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10404, doi:10.1029/2011GL047182.
L. ZISKA, D. BLUMENTHAL, G. RUNION, E. HUNT AND H. DIAZ-SOLTERO (2011)
Invasive species and climate change: an agronomic perspective, Climatic Change, 105, 1, 13-42
In the current review we wish to draw attention to an additional aspect of invasive species and climate change, that of agricultural productivity and food security. We recognize that at present, such a review remains, in part, speculative, and more illustrative than definitive. However, recent events on the global stage, particularly in regard to the number of food riots that occurred during 2008, even at a time of record harvests, have prompted additional interest in those factors, including invasive species, which could, through climatic uncertainty, alter food production. To that end, as agricultural scientists, we wish to begin an initial evaluation of key questions related to food production and climate change including: how vulnerable is agriculture to invasive species?; are current pest management strategies sufficient to control invasive outbreaks in the future?; what are the knowledge gaps?; can we provide initial recommendations for scientists, land managers and policy makers in regard to available resources? Our overall goals are to begin a synthesis of potential impacts on productivity, to identify seminal research areas that can be addressed in future research, and to provide the scientific basis to allow agronomists and land managers to formulate mitigation and adaptation options regarding invasive species and climate change as a means to maintain food security.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9879-5 AND http://www.ask-force.org/web/Global-Warming/Ziska- Invasive-Species-Climate-2010.pdf
H. J. ZUMBUHL, D. STEINER AND S. U. NUSSBAUMER (2008)
19th century glacier representations and fluctuations in the central and western European Alps: An interdisciplinary approach, Global and Planetary Change, 60, 1-2, 42-57
European Alpine glaciers are sensitive indicators of past climate and are thus valuable sources of climate history. Unfortunately, direct determinations of glacier changes (length variations and mass changes) did not start with increasing accuracy until just before the end of the 19th century: Therefore, historical and physical methods have to be used to reconstruct glacier variability for preceeding time periods. The Lower Grindelwald Glacier, Switzerland, and the Mer de Glace, France, are examples of well-documented Alpine glaciers with a wealth of different historical sources (e.g. drawings, paintings, prints, photographs, maps) that allow reconstruction of glacier length variations for the last 400-500 years. In this paper, we compare the length fluctuations of both glaciers for the 19th century until the present. During the 19th century a majority of Alpine glaciers - including the Lower Grindelwald Glacier and the Mer de Glace - have been affected by impressive glacier advances. The first maximum extent around 1820 has been documented by drawings from the artist Samuel Birmann, and the second maximum extent around 1855 is shown by photographs of the Bisson Brothers. These pictorial sources are among the best documents of the two glaciers for the 19th century. In addition to an analysis of historical sources of the 19th century, we also study the sensitivity of the Lower Grindelwald Glacier to climate parameters (multiproxy reconstructions of seasonal temperature and precipitation) for an advance and a retreat period in the 19th century using a new neural network approach. The advance towards 1820 was presumably driven by low summer temperatures and high autumn precipitation. The 1860-1880 retreat period was mainly forced by high temperatures. Finally, this nonlinear statistical approach is a new contribution to the various investigations of the complex climate-glacier system. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.