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Growing Insecurity in Rivers: Impacts of Re-Run Elections

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THE FUND FOR PEACE PARTNERSHIPS INITATIVE IN THE NIGER DELTA NIGER DELTA PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVE Growing Insecurity in Rivers: Impacts of Re-Run Elections Briefing: May 2016 Elections have been a cyclical driver of House of Assembly and Governorship Rivers State, Nigeria conflict risk and violence in Rivers state elections in Rivers. The Independent since 1999. The state was reported to have National Election Commission (INEC) had the highest number of violent incidents headquarters in the state were reportedly during the 2015 general elections in Nigeria. burnt down during the 11 April 2015 In the lead-up and aftermath of the 2016 gubernatorial and state House of Assembly legislative election rerun on 19 March, elections. Heavy gun shots and fatalities Rivers was once again marred by wide- were reported across the state amidst a spread political and cult violence with massive deployment of public security fatalities in the lead-up surpassing any forces. period since 2009. This ongoing cycle of insecurity is not only impacting the citizens There were allegations of widespread voter of the state, but also business. manipulation, intimidation, violence, and hijacking of voting materials. The outcome According to the National Bureau of of the elections was characterised by Statistics, Rivers has the second largest GDP protests and petitions. Eventually, 22 out of after Lagos, but it is also one of the most the 32 State House of Assembly seats and violent states per capita in the Niger Delta. 12 of the 13 Federal House of Representa- This briefing outlines the growing insecurity With increasing insecurity in the state tives, as well as three Senators elected on in Rivers State, Nigeria in the lead up to the surrounding election cycles in 2015 and the platform of the People’s Democratic latest round of the legislative elections in 2016, there are growing concerns that local Party (PDP), were nullified by the elections March 2016. With the previous legislative businesses are being impacted, investors petitions tribunal. election results nullified, this briefing may invest elsewhere, and the state may identifies the conflict patterns, trends and even see international companies start to The Court of Appeal later affirmed the hotspots in during the March re-run which rethink their physical presence in the hub of nullification on the grounds that the saw increased violence and fatalities. Port Harcourt. elections did not substantially comply with the provisions of the Electoral Act. The Scope and Limitations: We recognize that the Background nullification of the initial elections necessi- tated the 19 March 2016 legislative re-run data collected in this project is not an elections, which were also fraught with exhaustive tally of all incidents of violence. Several incidents of irregularities and allegations of violence including killings, However, to the extent that data are repre- violence were reported during the 2015 intimidation of political opponents, and vote sentative of the patterns and trends, findings Presidential, National Assembly, State rigging. are indicated in the report. MAY 2016: RIVERS MARCH RE - RUN ELECTION BRIEFING Rising Political and Cult Violence Rise in Political Violence Since 2015 Reported Conflict Incidents and Fatalities in Rivers State Rivers state has had increased levels of 120 violence and insecurity since January 2015, 100 as outlined in the Figure 1 graph. This corresponds with the period of fierce 80 political jostling between Governor Nyesom Wike and Rotimi Amaechi. Overall levels of 60 insecurity rose from January 2015, as 40 manifested in the form of killings, robberies, cult clashes and political assassinations. 20 Since the run-up to the March/April 2015 0 general elections, fierce rhetoric has often Jul-15 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jun-15 characterized exchanges between party Oct-15 Feb-15 Feb-16 Sep-15 Apr-16 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Mar-15 May-15 supporters on radio, television and social media channels, including calls to take up Incidents Fatalities arms against the military, to attack INEC Trend shows a significant rise in violence in the lead up to the 19th March 2016 legislative election re-run. This is consistent with spikes officials on Election Day, to form a parallel in conflict incidents and fatalities during the March 2015 presidential election, gubernatorial elections in April 2015, judicial rulings government, as well as statements regarding sacked council chairpersons in July 2015, and the judicial ruling nullifying the legislative election results in December 2015. Data source: Nigeria Watch www.nigeriawatch.org ; ACLED www.acleddata.com denigrating the judiciary and other important institutions. This inflammatory rhetoric may have contributed to incidents Cult Violence in Rivers State of violence breaking out between the candidate’s supporters, pushing the state 16 60 14 into deeper levels of insecurity. 50 12 40 Linking Cult Violence to Political Insecurity 10 8 30 A common feature of violence in Rivers is 6 20 the correlation between activities by cult 4 groups, militants and political thugs. In the 10 2 lead-up to the March 2016 legislative re-run elections, cult-related violence become 0 0 widespread in almost all the Local Govern- Jul-15 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Apr-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Mar-15 Mar-16 ment Areas (LGAs) in the state. Cult violence May-15 appears to intensify during election periods, Reported incidents of cult violence Cult-related fatalities as many cult groups reportedly depend on the goodwill and patronage of politicians, Trends in reported cult-related incidents suggest violence increases in the lead-up to and aftermath of key political events in Rivers. The who either employ them as informal cult-related fatalities have risen rapidly since November 2015, and remained high throughout the March 2016 re-run election period. security or use them to intimidate or Data sources: Incidents— All sources P4P Map www.p4p-nigerdelta.org; Fatalities— Nigeria Watch , ACLED. potentially kill their opponents in order to influence the outcomes of elections. Many of the cult groups are either commu- help protect their business interests. On the nity-based or built around certain individu- other hand, cult groups are recruited by Political underpinnings of cultism are als, including ex-militant leaders and politicians to perpetrate election violence. suggested by the location of many of politicians, who serve as rallying points for hotbeds of cult violence, including in the members. The connection between cultism, During the three months (December- political activity centres like the state capital militancy and political violence is complex. February) prior to the March 16 legislative and headquarters of LGAs. Cultists are often enlisted by militants to elections, cult-related violence resulted in P IN D N DP I 2 THE FUND FOR PEACE MAY 2016: RIVERS MARCH RE - RUN ELECTION BRIEFING over 100 fatalities across the state. In Drivers of Conflict in Rivers LGAs: Incidents per capita Jan-Mar 2016 December 2015, over a dozen communities were reportedly attacked by cultists resulting in over 17 fatalities in Ogba/ Group Grievance Egbema/Ndoni. Reported clashes between Worse Governance the rival Icelanders and Degbam cult groups caused three fatalities in Ikwere. In January Insecurity 2016, over 20 people were reportedly killed in series of cult violence-related incidents in Ahoada East, Ahoada, West, Obio/Akpor and Ikwerre LGAs. Better Three fatalities were also reported when security agents raided the home of an ex- militant leader. In a related incident, two days prior to the elections, police discov- ered a cache of arms in the residence of the same ex-militant leader who is now part of Trend shows that Asari-Toru LGA is the most violent LGA following by Ikwerre and Akuku-Toru, in the first quarter of 2016 during the the caretaker leadership of Asari Toru LGA. lead up to the March re-run elections. Data source: Nigeria Watch www.nigeriawatch.org; ACLED www.acleddata.com Separately, the house of another ex-militant leader accused of gun-running was reported demolished by soldiers in Gokana. This was Impact of Political Tensions on Overall Insecurity in Rivers followed by clashes between soldiers and 30 supporters of the ex-militant in Khana. The election insecurity and cult-related violence is concentrated in key state hubs 20 such as Port Harcourt, and has impacts not only on residents, but also businesses. As the second largest state economy in Nigeria, the concentration of local and international 10 business interests have the potential to be significantly impacted by the deepening insecurity. With heighted risks to their 0 investments and operations, the state may Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 begin to see negative effects on both new business and existing. Tension/Violence between Political Groups Overall Insecurity Graph shows the correlation between spikes in incidents of broader insecurity in the state, such as shootings/killings and criminality, and incidents related to tension or violence between political groups. The highest levels of conflict in the state occurred during months of key political events. Data source: NigeriaWatch P IN D N DP I 3 THE FUND FOR PEACE MAY 2016: RIVERS MARCH RE - RUN ELECTION BRIEFING Legislative Elections and Implications for Peace and Security Legislative Re-Run Elections in March 2016 On the eve of the elections, an Army officer Political Events Fueling Insecurity and a soldier were reportedly shot dead by gunmen. Overall, the re-run elections were in Rivers State In the build-up to the re-run elections there characterised by electoral irregularities and was palpable fear and tensions across the March 2015 widespread violence, including intimidation state as a result of increasing incidents of General elections held see PDP’s incum- and killings of security agents, party gang violence and politically motivated bent President Goodluck Jonothan loose to opponents and even INEC officials.
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