THE FUND FOR PEACE PARTNERSHIPS INITATIVE IN THE NIGER DELTA NIGER DELTA PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVE Growing Insecurity in Rivers: Impacts of Re-Run Elections

Briefing: May 2016

Elections have been a cyclical driver of House of Assembly and Governorship , conflict risk and violence in Rivers state elections in Rivers. The Independent since 1999. The state was reported to have National Election Commission (INEC) had the highest number of violent incidents headquarters in the state were reportedly during the 2015 general elections in Nigeria. burnt down during the 11 April 2015 In the lead-up and aftermath of the 2016 gubernatorial and state House of Assembly legislative election rerun on 19 March, elections. Heavy gun shots and fatalities Rivers was once again marred by wide- were reported across the state amidst a spread political and cult violence with massive deployment of public security fatalities in the lead-up surpassing any forces. period since 2009. This ongoing cycle of insecurity is not only impacting the citizens There were allegations of widespread voter of the state, but also business. manipulation, intimidation, violence, and hijacking of voting materials. The outcome According to the National Bureau of of the elections was characterised by Statistics, Rivers has the second largest GDP protests and petitions. Eventually, 22 out of after Lagos, but it is also one of the most the 32 State House of Assembly seats and violent states per capita in the Niger Delta. 12 of the 13 Federal House of Representa- This briefing outlines the growing insecurity With increasing insecurity in the state tives, as well as three Senators elected on in Rivers State, Nigeria in the lead up to the surrounding election cycles in 2015 and the platform of the People’s Democratic latest round of the legislative elections in 2016, there are growing concerns that local Party (PDP), were nullified by the elections March 2016. With the previous legislative businesses are being impacted, investors petitions tribunal. election results nullified, this briefing may invest elsewhere, and the state may identifies the conflict patterns, trends and even see international companies start to The Court of Appeal later affirmed the hotspots in during the March re-run which rethink their physical presence in the hub of nullification on the grounds that the saw increased violence and fatalities. . elections did not substantially comply with the provisions of the Electoral Act. The Scope and Limitations: We recognize that the Background nullification of the initial elections necessi- tated the 19 March 2016 legislative re-run data collected in this project is not an elections, which were also fraught with exhaustive tally of all incidents of violence. Several incidents of irregularities and allegations of violence including killings, However, to the extent that data are repre- violence were reported during the 2015 intimidation of political opponents, and vote sentative of the patterns and trends, findings Presidential, National Assembly, State rigging. are indicated in the report. MAY 2016: RIVERS MARCH RE - RUN ELECTION BRIEFING

Rising Political and Cult Violence

Rise in Political Violence Since 2015 Reported Conflict Incidents and Fatalities in Rivers State

Rivers state has had increased levels of 120 violence and insecurity since January 2015, 100 as outlined in the Figure 1 graph. This corresponds with the period of fierce 80 political jostling between Governor Nyesom Wike and . Overall levels of 60 insecurity rose from January 2015, as 40 manifested in the form of killings, robberies, cult clashes and political assassinations. 20

Since the run-up to the March/April 2015 0

general elections, fierce rhetoric has often

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characterized exchanges between party Oct-15

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Mar-16 Mar-15 May-15 supporters on radio, television and social media channels, including calls to take up Incidents Fatalities arms against the military, to attack INEC Trend shows a significant rise in violence in the lead up to the 19th March 2016 legislative election re-run. This is consistent with spikes officials on Election Day, to form a parallel in conflict incidents and fatalities during the March 2015 presidential election, gubernatorial elections in April 2015, judicial rulings government, as well as statements regarding sacked council chairpersons in July 2015, and the judicial ruling nullifying the legislative election results in December 2015. Data source: Nigeria Watch www.nigeriawatch.org ; ACLED www.acleddata.com denigrating the judiciary and other important institutions. This inflammatory rhetoric may have contributed to incidents Cult Violence in Rivers State of violence breaking out between the candidate’s supporters, pushing the state 16 60 14 into deeper levels of insecurity. 50 12 40 Linking Cult Violence to Political Insecurity 10 8 30 A common feature of violence in Rivers is 6 20 the correlation between activities by cult 4 groups, militants and political thugs. In the 10 2 lead-up to the March 2016 legislative re-run elections, cult-related violence become 0 0

widespread in almost all the Local Govern-

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Mar-15 Mar-16 ment Areas (LGAs) in the state. Cult violence May-15 appears to intensify during election periods, Reported incidents of cult violence Cult-related fatalities as many cult groups reportedly depend on the goodwill and patronage of politicians, Trends in reported cult-related incidents suggest violence increases in the lead-up to and aftermath of key political events in Rivers. The who either employ them as informal cult-related fatalities have risen rapidly since November 2015, and remained high throughout the March 2016 re-run election period. security or use them to intimidate or Data sources: Incidents— All sources P4P Map www.p4p-nigerdelta.org; Fatalities— Nigeria Watch , ACLED. potentially kill their opponents in order to influence the outcomes of elections. Many of the cult groups are either commu- help protect their business interests. On the

nity-based or built around certain individu- other hand, cult groups are recruited by Political underpinnings of cultism are als, including ex-militant leaders and politicians to perpetrate election violence. suggested by the location of many of politicians, who serve as rallying points for hotbeds of cult violence, including in the members. The connection between cultism, During the three months (December- political activity centres like the state capital militancy and political violence is complex. February) prior to the March 16 legislative and headquarters of LGAs. Cultists are often enlisted by militants to elections, cult-related violence resulted in

P IN D N DP I 2 THE FUND FOR PEACE MAY 2016: RIVERS MARCH RE - RUN ELECTION BRIEFING

over 100 fatalities across the state. In Drivers of Conflict in Rivers LGAs: Incidents per capita Jan-Mar 2016 December 2015, over a dozen communities

were reportedly attacked by cultists resulting in over 17 fatalities in Ogba/ Group Grievance Egbema/Ndoni. Reported clashes between Worse Governance

the rival Icelanders and Degbam cult groups caused three fatalities in Ikwere. In January Insecurity 2016, over 20 people were reportedly killed in series of cult violence-related incidents in East, Ahoada, West, Obio/Akpor and

Ikwerre LGAs.

Better Three fatalities were also reported when security agents raided the home of an ex- militant leader. In a related incident, two days prior to the elections, police discov- ered a cache of arms in the residence of the same ex-militant leader who is now part of Trend shows that Asari-Toru LGA is the most violent LGA following by Ikwerre and Akuku-Toru, in the first quarter of 2016 during the the caretaker leadership of Asari Toru LGA. lead up to the March re-run elections. Data source: Nigeria Watch www.nigeriawatch.org; ACLED www.acleddata.com Separately, the house of another ex-militant leader accused of gun-running was reported demolished by soldiers in Gokana. This was Impact of Political Tensions on Overall Insecurity in Rivers followed by clashes between soldiers and 30 supporters of the ex-militant in Khana.

The election insecurity and cult-related violence is concentrated in key state hubs 20 such as Port Harcourt, and has impacts not only on residents, but also businesses. As the second largest state economy in Nigeria, the concentration of local and international 10 business interests have the potential to be significantly impacted by the deepening insecurity. With heighted risks to their 0 investments and operations, the state may Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 begin to see negative effects on both new business and existing. Tension/Violence between Political Groups Overall Insecurity

Graph shows the correlation between spikes in incidents of broader insecurity in the state, such as shootings/killings and criminality, and incidents related to tension or violence between political groups. The highest levels of conflict in the state occurred during months of key political events. Data source: NigeriaWatch

P IN D N DP I 3 THE FUND FOR PEACE MAY 2016: RIVERS MARCH RE - RUN ELECTION BRIEFING

Legislative Elections and Implications for Peace and Security

Legislative Re-Run Elections in March 2016 On the eve of the elections, an Army officer Political Events Fueling Insecurity and a soldier were reportedly shot dead by

gunmen. Overall, the re-run elections were in Rivers State In the build-up to the re-run elections there characterised by electoral irregularities and was palpable fear and tensions across the March 2015 widespread violence, including intimidation state as a result of increasing incidents of  General elections held see PDP’s incum- and killings of security agents, party gang violence and politically motivated bent President Goodluck Jonothan loose to opponents and even INEC officials. These killings. the APC’s General factors drove the decision by INEC to initially

cancel voting in eight LGAs, and the later April 2015 On February 11, 2016, a former State suspension of the collation and announce- House of Assembly member was shot dead  Gubernatorial and House Assembly Elec- ment of results in other LGAs. tions are held for Rivers state in Obio/Akpor. On February 22, 2016, the state liaison office of one of the senatorial  PDP wins House Assembly majority and candidates was reportedly razed by Comparing the April 2015 Elections with their candidate Chief Wike is elected Gov- ernor, ousting the APC administration who suspected political thugs in Khana. March 2016 Re-run seek to contest the results Separately, a party ward chairman in Ogba/

Egbema/Ndoni was murdered along with May 2015 The foundation of the current rising level of his wife and 18-year old son, and a political insecurity in Rivers State appears to have  Local elections held by outgoing APC Gover- party supporter in Asari Toru LGA was burnt been laid during the 2015 electioneering nor Amaechi; which are boycotted by PDP to death two weeks prior to the election. process. The electoral campaigns that  APC wins 22 of 23 chairmanship seats in While some observers attributed these preceded the 2015 general elections were local elections killings to cult-related violence, others have characterised by violence largely because of suggested that these killings are related to July 2015 the contentious struggle for power and the violent politicking in the run-up to the politics of government succession.  Federal court nullifies May local elections elections.  New PDP Governor Wike sacks the 22

The reported sharp political divide between newly elected local APC chairman The tensions created by the rising incidents the APC and the PDP, as well as the  National industrial court rules for the violence were further fuelled by the assumed political rivalry between the sacked chairman to be reinstated inflammatory rhetoric from major election incumbent governor, Nyesom Wike and his contenders. A week out from the elections, predecessor and current Minister of December 2015 the immediate past governor of the state Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, have  Court of Appeal upholds nullification of who is the current Minister of Transporta- become a source of conflict in the state in April 2015 gubernatorial elections, after tion, Rotimi Amaechi, relocated to the state state tribunal nullified them in October recent times. Hence, many observers see to lead the APC campaign. Amaechi, along the political animosity and violence that with the incumbent governor and the PDP March 2016 characterised the March 2016 re-run leader in the state Nyesom Wike, were Re-run of legislative elections held elections as an extension of the political  reportedly engaged in verbal warfare where rivalry and struggle for political dominance  INEC suspends announcement of election both pledged to resist any attempt to rig the during the 2015 governorship and House of results due to violence, and obstruction of elections against any of their party the electoral process Assembly elections in the state. candidates.

The violence and alleged electoral irregulari- In an effort to ensure violence-free Including both the run-up and immediate ties that characterised the April 2015 elections, the Federal Government, through aftermath of the inconclusive March re-run gubernatorial and state House of Assembly the Inspector General of Police and the elections, between January and April 2016 elections in Rivers were repeated during the Chief of Army Staff, deployed over 6,000 Rivers had 264 conflict related fatalities March 2016 legislative re-run elections in policemen, 14 units of Mobile Policemen according to ACLED data. This is compared the state. The first quarter of 2016 has (MOPOL), and military personnel to strategic to the reported 144 fatalities reported by proved significantly more violent than the locations and hotspots of violence across ACLED for the equivalent legislative election same period preceding the 2015 April the state. Despite these deployments, many period in 2015 (February to May 2015). With legislative elections. violent incidents, including killings, were the legislative election outcome still reported a few days before the elections. unresolved, this suggests a high risk of

P IN D N DP I 4 THE FUND FOR PEACE MAY 2016: RIVERS MARCH RE - RUN ELECTION BRIEFING

continued violence in the state. This an increasingly volatile operating environ- attacks, kidnappings and killings. Port includes the potential for continued cult ment, there have been reports of local Harcourt also plays host to the regional clashes, which rose in April 2016. businesses closing early to avoid being the offices of many national and multinational target of robberies, or withdrawing companies. If the risk to businesses Continued Implications for Peace and altogether, and deterring new investors.. continue, the potential for withdrawal from The negative implications of this scenario on the state has the potential for much more Security the Rivers economy has the potential to permanent job losses for the state and increase unemployment and impact basic revenue streams. This could lead to a With INEC issuing a statement declaring the livelihoods. In a recent statement by the vicious cycle whereby with less access to re-run elections in Rivers State as inconclu- Rivers State Investors’ and Entrepreneurs opportunities for work and stable income, sive it creates more opportunities for Forum, they publically urged the govern- the potential for group grievance and increased jostling between both Governor ment to address the insecurity which they criminality may increase. Wike, his rival Rotimi Amaechi and their said was driving away investment to other party supporters. In the 23 state and 16 states. While the state government may seek to federal constituencies that participated in counter insecurity with increased budget the March 2016 re-run elections, 11 and Economic Implications of Insecurity expenditure on security, this in itself takes four respectively have been declared by away valuable resources from other sectors

INEC, leaving a total of 12 state and 12 which promote prosperity such as invest- The LGA of Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni is one federal constituencies up for grabs in a ment in economic growth, infrastructure example, which has experienced increased subsequent election on a yet-to-be- and education. It is imperative that the levels of violence in the lead up to the announced date. Unless a new approach is vicious cycle be broken and replaced with a March 2016 elections, particularly in relation taken by the candidates and their respective virtuous cycle of economic development to cult-related deaths and attacks. In a supporters to concretely take steps to and security. To do this will take a concerted media report from 18 January 2016, reduce rhetoric and ensure peace and calm, effort to address the deeper drivers of Nairadays.com reported that the LGA had any subsequent election re-run is likely to insecurity, including a de-escalation of the experienced shut downs of operations by provoke similar or worse tensions and current political climate. In this way, trade companies and the relocation of oil workers insecurity. and commerce will thrive, the people of to Port Harcourt City. Rivers will be able to sustain their liveli-

The widespread insecurity which has hoods, and the state will be able to once The state capital is also coming under characterized Rivers in recent months is again realize its potential as an engine of increasing pressure in the wake of the having impacts not only on the safety of its economic growth for the country as a insecurity. With a proliferation of arms, citizens, but also its economic outlook. With whole. residents are faced with frequent robbery

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Conclusion

The pressures on Rivers from process of elections and associated political events Violent hotspots in over 2015 and now 2016 represent a lead-up to elections challenge to stability and governance in the Jan-Mar 2016 state.

As the second largest state economy in the country, yet the most violent state per Heat Map: capita in the Niger Delta, Rivers state needs Concentration of conflict incidents in the lead up to the Rivers re-run stable leadership and governance to ensure elections held in March 2016, its future peace and prosperity. The shows hotspots were focused growing violence and fatalities, driven by where key business and political political maneuvering, cult clashes, and hubs are located, most notably Port Harcourt. criminality, have the potential to be dangerously destabilizing over the longer Source: P4P Map; all data sources term.

Without continued economic investments and business growth, opportunities for employment and improved livelihoods will state, but also with the Niger Delta region at hand and promote strong leadership dwindle. This has the potential to signifi- and beyond. The following recommenda- from government, political parties, media cantly worsen insecurity not only within the tions are proposed to address the insecurity and civil society alike.

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