Using Implementation Intention As a Debiasing Tool for UX Practitioners' Bias Blind Spot
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The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Valuing Thoughts, Ignoring Behavior: the Introspection Illusion As a Source of the Bias Blind Spot ଝ
Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 43 (2007) 565–578 www.elsevier.com/locate/jesp Valuing thoughts, ignoring behavior: The introspection illusion as a source of the bias blind spot ଝ Emily Pronin ¤, Matthew B. Kugler Department of Psychology, Green Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA Received 3 September 2005; revised 16 May 2006 Available online 20 July 2006 Communicated by Fiedler Abstract People see themselves as less susceptible to bias than others. We show that a source of this bias blind spot involves the value that people place, and believe they should place, on introspective information (relative to behavioral information) when assessing bias in themselves versus others. Participants considered introspective information more than behavioral information for assessing bias in themselves, but not others. This divergence did not arise simply from diVerences in introspective access. The blind spot persisted when observers had access to the introspections of the actor whose bias they judged. And, participants claimed that they, but not their peers, should rely on introspections when making self-assessments of bias. Only after being educated about the importance of nonconscious processes in guiding judgment and action—and thereby about the fallibility of introspection—did participants cease denying their relative susceptibility to bias. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Bias blind spot; Introspection illusion; Self—other; Nonconscious inXuences; Self-perception In a recent news story, a federal judge defended his ability The tendency to see bias in others, while being blind to it to be objective in handling a case involving a long-time friend. in ourselves, has been shown across a range of cognitive In another story, government scientists defended their impar- and motivational biases (for a review, see Pronin, Gilovich, tiality in evaluating drug companies from whom they received & Ross, 2004). -
Influencing Choice Without Awareness
Consciousness and Cognition 37 (2015) 225–236 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Consciousness and Cognition journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/concog Influencing choice without awareness ⇑ Jay A. Olson a,c, , Alym A. Amlani b, Amir Raz a,c, Ronald A. Rensink d a Department of Psychiatry, 1033 Pine Avenue West, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3A 1A1, Canada b School of Business, Kwantlen Polytechnic University, Main Building, Room 206, 12666 72 Avenue, Surrey, BC V3W 2M8, Canada c The Lady Davis Institute at the SMDB Jewish General Hospital, Montreal, QC, Canada d Departments of Psychology and Computer Science, University of British Columbia, 2136 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada article info abstract Article history: Forcing occurs when a magician influences the audience’s decisions without their aware- Received 18 July 2014 ness. To investigate the mechanisms behind this effect, we examined several stimulus Available online 7 February 2015 and personality predictors. In Study 1, a magician flipped through a deck of playing cards while participants were asked to choose one. Although the magician could influence the Keywords: choice almost every time (98%), relatively few (9%) noticed this influence. In Study 2, par- Forcing ticipants observed rapid series of cards on a computer, with one target card shown longer Magic than the rest. We expected people would tend to choose this card without noticing that it Volition was shown longest. Both stimulus and personality factors predicted the choice of card, Free will Decision making depending on whether the influence was noticed. These results show that combining Sense of agency real-world and laboratory research can be a powerful way to study magic and can provide Persuasion new methods to study the feeling of free will. -
The Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking
EDUCATIONAL PSYCHOLOGIST, 51(1), 23–34, 2016 Copyright Ó Division 15, American Psychological Association ISSN: 0046-1520 print / 1532-6985 online DOI: 10.1080/00461520.2015.1125787 2013 THORNDIKE AWARD ADDRESS The Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking Keith E. Stanovich Department of Applied Psychology and Human Development University of Toronto, Canada The Nobel Prize in Economics was awarded in 2002 for work on judgment and decision- making tasks that are the operational measures of rational thought in cognitive science. Because assessments of intelligence (and similar tests of cognitive ability) are taken to be the quintessence of good thinking, it might be thought that such measures would serve as proxies for the assessment of rational thought. It is important to understand why such an assumption would be misplaced. It is often not recognized that rationality and intelligence (as traditionally defined) are two different things conceptually and empirically. Distinguishing between rationality and intelligence helps explain how people can be, at the same time, intelligent and irrational. Thus, individual differences in the cognitive skills that underlie rational thinking must be studied in their own right because intelligence tests do not explicitly assess rational thinking. In this article, I describe how my research group has worked to develop the first prototype of a comprehensive test of rational thought (the Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking). It was truly a remarkable honor to receive the E. L. Thorn- Cunningham, of the University of California, Berkeley. To dike Career Achievement Award for 2012. The list of previ- commemorate this award, Anne bought me a 1923 ous winners is truly awe inspiring and humbling. -
Mitigating the Attraction Effect with Visualizations Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, Steven Franconeri
Mitigating the Attraction Effect with Visualizations Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, Steven Franconeri To cite this version: Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, Steven Franconeri. Mitigating the Attrac- tion Effect with Visualizations. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, Insti- tute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2019, TVCG 2019 (InfoVis 2018), 25 (1), pp.850 - 860. 10.1109/TVCG.2018.2865233. hal-01845004v2 HAL Id: hal-01845004 https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01845004v2 Submitted on 22 Aug 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. This article has been accepted for publication in a future issue of this journal, but has not been fully edited. Content may change prior to final publication. Citation information: DOI 10.1109/TVCG.2018.2865233, IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics Mitigating the Attraction Effect with Visualizations Evanthia Dimara, Gilles Bailly, Anastasia Bezerianos, and Steven Franconeri Abstract—Human decisions are prone to biases, and this is no less true for decisions made within data visualizations. Bias mitigation strategies often focus on the person, by educating people about their biases, typically with little success. We focus instead on the system, presenting the first evidence that altering the design of an interactive visualization tool can mitigate a strong bias – the attraction effect. -
Fixing Biases: Principles of Cognitive De-Biasing
Fixing biases: Principles of cognitive de-biasing Pat Croskerry MD, PhD Clinical Reasoning in Medical Education National Science Learning Centre, University of York Workshop, November 26, 2019 Case q A 65 year old female presents to the ED with a complaint of shoulder sprain. She said she was gardening this morning and injured her shoulder pushing her lawn mower. q At triage she has normal vital signs and in no distress. The triage nurse notes her complaint and triages her to the fast track area. q She is seen by an emergency physician who notes her complaint and examines her shoulder. He orders an X-ray. q The shoulder X ray shows narrowing of the joint and signs of osteoarthrtritis q He discharges her with a sling and Rx for Arthrotec q She is brought to the ED 4 hours later following an episode of syncope, sweating, and weakness. She is diagnosed with an inferior MI. Biases q A 65 year old female presents to the ED with a complaint of ‘shoulder sprain’. She said she was gardening this morning and sprained her shoulder pushing her lawn mower (Framing). q At triage she has normal vital signs and in no distress. The triage nurse notes her complaint and triages her to the fast track area (Triage cueing). q She is seen by an emergency physician who notes her complaint and examines her shoulder. He orders an X-ray (Ascertainment bias). q The shoulder X ray shows narrowing of the joint and signs of osteoarthrtritis. He explains to the patient the cause of her pain (Confirmation bias). -
Anchoring Effect" and “Blind Spot” Biases in Federal Sentencing: a Modest Solution for Reforming a Fundamental Flaw Mark W
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume 104 | Issue 3 Article 1 Fall 2014 Confronting Cognitive “Anchoring Effect" and “Blind Spot” Biases In Federal Sentencing: a Modest Solution For Reforming a Fundamental Flaw Mark W. Bennett Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc Part of the Criminal Law Commons Recommended Citation Mark W. Bennett, Confronting Cognitive “Anchoring Effect" and “Blind Spot” Biases In Federal Sentencing: a Modest Solution For Reforming a Fundamental Flaw, 104 J. Crim. L. & Criminology 489 (2014). https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc/vol104/iss3/1 This Criminal Law is brought to you for free and open access by Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology by an authorized editor of Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. 0091-4169/14/10403-0489 THE JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL LAW & CRIMINOLOGY Vol. 104, No. 3 Copyright © 2014 by Northwestern University School of Law Printed in U.S.A. CRIMINAL LAW CONFRONTING COGNITIVE “ANCHORING EFFECT” AND “BLIND SPOT” BIASES IN FEDERAL SENTENCING: A MODEST SOLUTION FOR REFORMING A FUNDAMENTAL FLAW MARK W. BENNETT* Cognitive “anchoring effect” bias, especially related to numbers, like sentencing guidelines ranges, is widely recognized in cognitive psychology as an extremely robust and powerful heuristic. It is a cognitive shortcut that has a strong tendency to undermine judgments by “anchoring” a judgment to an earlier disclosed number, the anchor. Numerous studies prove anchoring bias produces systematic errors in judgment in wide-ranging circumstances, including judgments by experts—doctors, lawyers, real estate agents, psychologists, and auditors—as well as a variety of decisions by foreign and American federal and state judges. -
Croskerry MD, Phd, FRCP(Edin)
Clinical Decision Making + Strategies for Cognitive Debiasing Pat Croskerry MD, PhD, FRCP(Edin) International Association of Endodontists Scottsdale, Arizona June 2019 Financial Disclosures or other Conflicts of Interest None It is estimated that an American adult makes 35,000 decisions a day i.e. about 2200 each waking hour Sollisch J: The cure for decision fatigue. Wall Street Journal, 2016 Decision making ‘The most important decision we need to make in Life is how we are going to make decisions’ Professor Gigerenzer Is there a problem with the way we think and make decisions? 3 domains of decision making Patients Healthcare leadership Healthcare providers Patients Leading Medical Causes of Death in the US and their Preventability in 2000 Cause Total Preventability (%) Heart disease 710,760 46 Malignant neoplasms 553,091 66 Cerebrovascular 167,661 43 Chronic respiratory 122,009 76 Accidents 97,900 44 Diabetes mellitus 69,301 33 Acute respiratory 65,313 23 Suicide 29,350 100 Chronic Liver disease 26,552 75 Hypertension/renal 12,228 68 Assault (homicide) 16,765 100 All other 391,904 14 Keeney (2008) Healthcare leadership Campbell et al, 2017 Healthcare providers US deaths in 2013 • 611,105 Heart disease • 584,881 Cancer • 251,454 Medical error Medical error is the 3rd leading cause of death Estimated number of preventable hospital deaths due to diagnostic failure annually in the US 40,000 – 80,000 Leape, Berwick and Bates JAMA 2002 Diagnostic failure is the biggest problem in patient safety Newman-Toker, 2017 Sources of Diagnostic Failure The System 25% The Individual 75% Graber M, Gordon R, Franklin N. -
Alone in a Crowd of Sheep: Asymmetric Perceptions of Conformity and Their Roots in an Introspection Illusion
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Marketing Papers Wharton Faculty Research 4-2007 Alone in a Crowd of Sheep: Asymmetric Perceptions of Conformity and Their Roots in an Introspection Illusion Emily Pronin Jonah A. Berger University of Pennsylvania Sarah Molouki Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers Part of the Cognition and Perception Commons, Cognitive Psychology Commons, Community Psychology Commons, Interpersonal and Small Group Communication Commons, Marketing Commons, Social Influence and oliticalP Communication Commons, and the Social Psychology Commons Recommended Citation Pronin, E., Berger, J. A., & Molouki, S. (2007). Alone in a Crowd of Sheep: Asymmetric Perceptions of Conformity and Their Roots in an Introspection Illusion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92 (4), 585-595. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.92.4.585 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/292 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Alone in a Crowd of Sheep: Asymmetric Perceptions of Conformity and Their Roots in an Introspection Illusion Abstract The results of 5 studies showed that people see others as more conforming than themselves. This asymmetry was found to occur in domains ranging from consumer purchases to political views. Participants claimed to be less susceptible than their average peers to broad descriptions of social influences, and they also claimed to be less susceptible than specific peers ot specific instances of conformity. These studies further demonstrated that this asymmetry is not simply the result of social desirability, but it is also rooted in people's attention to introspective versus behavioral information when making conformity assessments. -
Omission Neglect and the Bias Blind Spot: Effects of the Self-Other Asymmetry in Susceptibility to Bias and Responsiveness to Debiasing
Omission Neglect and the Bias Blind Spot: Effects of the Self-Other Asymmetry in Susceptibility to Bias and Responsiveness to Debiasing A dissertation submitted to the Division of Research and Advanced Studies of the University of Cincinnati In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (PH.D.) IN THE DEPARTMENT OF MARKETING of the College of Business 2011 By Xiaoqi Han M.A., Marquette University Committee Chair: Frank R. Kardes, Ph.D. i ABSTRACT Omission Neglect and the Bias Blind Spot: Effects of the Self-Other Asymmetry in Susceptibility to Bias and Responsiveness to Debiasing By Xiaoqi Han Chair: Dr. Frank R. Kardes Research on the bias blind spot shows that people are less capable of identifying biases in their own judgment than in others. People generally believe that they are less susceptible to biases than their peers and average people. This dissertation investigates the self-other bias asymmetry with respect to omission neglect. Omission neglect refers to insensitivity to missing or unknown information. Results from bias blind spot research imply a potential relationship between the self-other asymmetry in bias belief and omission neglect. Research on bias correction suggests that people holding a higher degree of asymmetry in bias beliefs may be less likely to correct biases even when omissions are made noticeable. Ironically, consumers who believe that they are less vulnerable to omission neglect may be more susceptible to omission neglect. Consumers may be also less likely to correct their judgment even when omitted information is made noticeable. The goal of the dissertation is to develop debiasing techniques to debias omission neglect in order to improve consumer judgment and decision making. -
Blind Spots: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things Pdf, Epub, Ebook
BLIND SPOTS: WHY SMART PEOPLE DO DUMB THINGS PDF, EPUB, EBOOK Madeleine L. Van Hecke | 256 pages | 03 Apr 2007 | Prometheus Books | 9781591025092 | English | Amherst, United States Blind Spots: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things PDF Book After reading the blurb and subtitle "Why smart people do dumb things? Free with a day trial. By submitting you are joining the ORBITER email community and will receive a bi-monthly newsletter on the intersection of science and meaning. And she does not spare herself in selecting those examples. Made me think a lot about my decisions and have a lot of call to actions going forward. People of all levels of intelligence succumb to what's called the "bias blind spot. It''s called. Lists with This Book. Smart people develop overachieving personalities because things come so easily to them. Since money is the single most powerful tool we have for navigating this complex world we've created, understanding it is critical. None predicted hand held calculators that would displace slide rules. Lots of the advice here is very useful. You get the deal. By using the term dysrationalia , I wanted the field to realize it had been ignoring individual differences. The confusion derives from the inconsistencies of folk language. Smart people are more prone to silly mistakes because of blind spots in how they use logic. Thank you. Getty Images. Adding to library failed. Get A Copy. She didn't know what she didn't know. In his studies, Frederick gave people simple problems to solve, like this one:. He is often wrong, but never in doubt. -
Cognitive Bias in Clinical Medicine ED O’Sullivan1, SJ Schofi Eld2
J R Coll Physicians Edinb 2018; 48: 225–232 | doi: 10.4997/JRCPE.2018.306 REVIEW Cognitive bias in clinical medicine ED O’Sullivan1, SJ Schofi eld2 ClinicalCognitive bias is increasingly recognised as an important source of medical Correspondence to: error, and is both ubiquitous across clinical practice yet incompletely ED O’Sullivan Abstract understood. This increasing awareness of bias has resulted in a surge in Department of Renal clinical and psychological research in the area and development of various Medicine ‘debiasing strategies’. This paper describes the potential origins of bias Royal Infi rmary of Edinburgh based on ‘dual process thinking’, discusses and illustrates a number of the 51 Little France Crescent important biases that occur in clinical practice, and considers potential strategies that might Edinburgh EH16 4SA be used to mitigate their effect. UK Keywords: cognitive bias, diagnostic error, heuristics, interventions Email: [email protected] Financial and Competing Interests: No fi nancial or competing interests declared Introduction Cognitive bias can lead to medical error The human brain is a complex organ with the wonderful An important concept in understanding error is that of power of enabling man to fi nd reasons for continuing to cognitive bias, and the infl uence this can have on our decision- believe whatever it is that he wants to believe. making.10–12 Cognitive biases, also known as ‘heuristics’, are cognitive short cuts used to aid our decision-making. – Voltaire A heuristic can be thought of as a cognitive ‘rule of thumb’ or cognitive guideline that one subconsciously applies to a Cognitive error is pervasive in clinical practice.