CHAPTER 2 REACHING THE MISSING MIDDLE

Chapter 2

REACHING THE MISSING MIDDLE Overcoming Hunger and Malnutrition in Middle Income Countries

Shenggen Fan and Ertharin Cousin

SUMMARY Eliminating hunger and malnutrition around the globe cannot be achieved without a new approach to dealing with the problem in middle income countries. Here’s why this is so, how the middle income countries should respond, and what the international community can do to help.

unger and malnutrition are not problems exclusive to low income countries. Middle income countries (MICs), despite some being global economic powerhouses, are home to the major- ity of the world’s hungry and malnourished.1 These vulnerable populations, the “missingH middle,” tend not to either benefit from or contribute to the rapid eco- nomic growth that is characteristic of many MICs. That is why the international community cannot realize its ambitious inter- national agenda of achieving zero hunger and malnutrition without a renewed focus on MICs. That these countries have increased both their economic resources and their government capacities over the last two decades is a major boon to the development effort but not yet a victory. Economic progress must also be accompanied by sustained investment—from both governments and international partners—in reducing inequalities and improving human capital. This is particularly important in countries where just a relatively few policy and budget commitments can translate into significant progress in the food security and nutrition situation of millions of people. The challenges and opportunities to end the burden of malnutrition within MICs are as diverse as the countries themselves. Yet several unique trends and corresponding opportunities can be identified if we focus on key MICs that have had or are currently experiencing periods of rapid economic growth while housing large populations of hungry and malnourished people. Brazil, , , Indonesia, and Mexico are among the world’s most populous countries while also being ranked in the top 20 economies in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). They have each also made remarkable progress in addressing hunger and undernutrition. For example, between 1990 and 2014

Shenggen Fan is director general, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. Ertharin Cousin is executive director, World Food Programme, Rome, Italy. hunger was reduced in Brazil by almost two-thirds providing models for effective policies that could and in China and Indonesia by more than one- help other countries succeed. Moreover, investing half.2 Child stunting improved significantly in in and implementing properly targeted social safety China from 1990 to 2013 and in Brazil from 1989 net and economic development programs can also to 2007, declining by about two-thirds in both provide the necessary conditions to achieve the kind countries.3 of population-inclusive growth needed to avoid or In 2014, MICs continued to implement policies escape the “middle-income trap,” a development sit- to improve food security and nutrition at home. uation whereby rapidly growing economies stagnate Brazil, for example, released new dietary guidelines at middle-income levels. With the right policies and to encourage consumers to limit the consumption priorities that include a larger share of the popula- of unhealthy foods.4 Additionally, the role of MICs tion in economic growth, middle income countries as influential actors in global food policy contin- will have the chance to sustainably and equitably ued to increase. Brazil and China, for instance, grow their economies while increasing stability and continued to expand investments in prosperity, a feat only achieved so far by a handful and share knowledge and technologies with the of countries. global South.5 Yet to assist the poorest and most vulnerable, THE BURDEN OF HUNGER AND even more action is required. Government food MALNUTRITION IN MICs security and nutrition efforts are constrained by several challenges, many of which are not exclusive In countries like Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and to MICs. If these challenges are properly addressed, Mexico, despite the progress that has been made these MICs and others can make a twofold contri- in reducing the number of those chronically hun- bution to significantly enhancing global food secu- gry, there remains a potential threat to sustained, rity and nutrition: first by alleviating hunger and inclusive growth. Close to half of the world’s hungry, malnutrition within their countries and second by or 363 million people, live in these five countries

Table 1 Key characteristics of select middle income countries

Years in Total Population Population GDP growth middle-income population undernourished overweight and Country (2003–2013) Gini coefficient† status (millions) (millions) obese (millions)

China 9.6 42.1 15 1,368 150.8 341.9

India 6.1 33.9 7 1,260 190.7 141.1

Indonesia 4.3 35.6 11 251 21.6 52.1

Brazil 2.5 52.7 >27 200 ns 105.6

Mexico 1.3 48.1 >27 120 ns 82.6

Subtotal 3,198 363.1 723.3

World 2.7 38.5 7,125 805.3 2,458.0

Sources: Data on GDP growth, Gini coefficients, years in middle income, and population are from theWorld Development Indicators 2014 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013), http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableSelection/selectvariables.aspx?source=world-development-indicators. Data on undernourishment are from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World—2014 (Rome: 2014), http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2014/en/. Data on obesity are estimated by multiplying population by prevalence of obesity, found in the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food and Agriculture in the World—2013 (Rome: 2013), http://www.fao.org/publications/ sofa/2013/en/. Note: Use of ns refers to not significant. †The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality. A Gini coefficient value of 0 refers to perfect equality, while a value of 100 refers to perfect inequality—a sit- uation where only one person has all of the income and everyone else has no income. Each Gini coefficient in Table 1 refers to a year from 2010 to 2012.

Overcoming Hunger and Malnuemumi mi omndndav mirom Countrie 14 Figure 1 Hunger and malnutrition in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico, % of population

69 UNDERNOURISHMENT CHILD STUNTING 54 OBESITY 47.9 OVERWEIGHT 35.6 32.8

25 19.5 21 15.2 14 10.6 11 7.1 9.4 8.7 5.6 4.7 2

Brazil China India Indonesia Mexico

Sources: Data on undernourishment are from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food Insecurity in the World—2014 (Rome: 2014). Data on child stunting, overweight, and obesity are from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, The State of Food and Agriculture in the World—2013 (Rome: 2013).

KEY FACTORS THAT CHARACTERIZE alone. Undernutrition, the result of prolonged FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION IN MICs inadequate intake of macro- and micronutrients, is also widespread. Despite the diversity of MICs, a shared set of factors At the same time, in each country, overnutri- influences the scale and of their food secu- tion (in the form of overweight and obesity) is high rity and nutrition. Many of these factors affect food or rising. Various contributing factors are reported security and nutrition in MICs according to each to include urbanization, demographic shifts, diet country’s stage of economic development. For exam- changes associated with increased income, low ple, China and India, which are experiencing rapid awareness about good nutrition, and increasingly growth, face a heavier burden of hunger and under- sedentary lifestyles.6 Modernized value chains that nutrition while Brazil and Mexico also face a heavy have increased the availability of processed foods are trend of rising overweight and obesity. also likely contributors.7 Malnutrition also imposes high economic costs. Rising Inequality Micronutrient deficiencies, for example, cost India Persistent or rising inequalities across wealth, gender, up to 3 percent of its annual GDP.8 Overweight and and access to education add to the burden of hunger obesity increase the risk of such diseases as diabetes and malnutrition. Impressive economic growth and and heart disease, which in turn strain national bud- poverty reduction can exist alongside the multiple gets. In Mexico, noncommunicable diseases related burdens of malnutrition.10 Inequities in education, to overweight and obesity were estimated to com- health, and nutrition impede human capital forma- prise 13 percent of total healthcare expenditures in tion and jeopardize sustained, long-term growth.11 2008.9 Losses in human capital development brought The government in each of these countries rec- about by malnutrition are deepened both by a lack ognizes the challenges these issues present. As a of equal access to quality education and by gender result they are implementing a variety of activities to gaps.12 Unequal access to quality education has been address these issues while recognizing more action shown to contribute to the dual burden of child is required. stunting and obesity.13

ev r ming the omeeming omndndav 15 IMPROVING FOOD SECURITY AND Urbanization and Changing Consumer NUTRITION IN MICs AND BEYOND Preferences As part of a global trend, rising urbanization and sub- Middle income countries can learn from the expe- sequent changes in consumer preferences from tradi- riences of other countries. South and tional -based to protein-rich diets present new have made great progress in eliminating hunger and challenges, particularly for MICs that are facing or malnutrition while promoting the kind of durable, have faced rapid and at times massive urbanization.14 inclusive growth that has helped them avoid being Rapid urbanization and shifting diets have con- stuck in the middle income trap and moved them tributed to modernized food value chains,15 which from middle- to upper-income status. Importantly, have had implications for food safety. Inconsistent and as evidenced in this publication, success in standards and poor monitoring along the food value working toward a more food-secure world is not the chain, as well as inadequate capacity of small enter- sole domain of high-income or developed countries; prises, have also led to contaminated and unsafe that is, MICs can and should learn from each other, food,16 which has consequently affected nutrition. as well as from other countries that have employed The modernized value chains that have resulted successful food security strategies and promoted from urbanization and shifting consumer prefer- inclusive growth. ences have also put stress on scarce natural resources Economic growth is not enough to substantially used for agricultural production. Growing appe- reduce hunger and malnutrition; efforts must also be tite for in MICs means higher resource-inten- made to reduce inequalities, improve human capital, sive production. and promote better nutrition and health outcomes. Shifting diets (with sugary, salty, and fatty foods To achieve these objectives, MICs should support having risen in popularity) have had implications for the following strategies and approaches that can help obesity and resource use. In many MICs, access to to overcome hunger and malnutrition: food has often increased through social protection XX Reshape the food system, especially agriculture, policies, yet often this assistance is not balanced with for nutrition and health. The entire food system enough nutrition education and advocacy to pro- can make a greater contribution to nutrition and mote balanced diets. Brazil’s new dietary guidelines health.21 MICs should both increase incentives are promising, as they encourage consumers to limit to produce, process, and market high-nutrient processed, ready-to-eat foods that are commonly foods and reduce distorted incentives to pro- high in , salt, and saturated fats.17 Similarly, duce just low-nutrient staple foods. For acceler- China’s high rates of obesity have led the govern- ated improvements in nutrition, investments in ment to introduce several guidelines to prevent and nutrition-specific interventions (such as micro- control overweight and obesity.18 nutrient supplementation) should be combined with investments in nutrition-sensitive interven- Persistent Lack of Focus on Nutrition and Poor tions (such as biofortification).22 By fortifying Targeting in Safety Nets powdered milk with micronutrients, including While most MICs have social safety nets in place, iron, Chile reduced the prevalence of anemia by many lack integration with nutrition. Poor targeting around 80 percent in less than three years. and leakage are costly issues that also can sometimes Crucial will be adopting value chain weaken these well-intended safety nets. Targeted approaches that go beyond creating economic food security programs can effectively increase the benefits for actors along the entire chain to wealth of recipient households but too often have increasing the availability, affordability, and qual- little impact on child stunting and at times lead to ity of nutritious foods for the poor.23 To improve increases in overweight and obesity.19 While access the efficiency of food value chains and reduce to food has increased through social protection pol- food loss and waste, it will also be important to icies, more can be done to incentivize and promote ease market access constraints, invest in food the adoption of healthy diets.20

Overcoming Hunger and Malnuemumi mi omndndav mirom Countrie 16 preservation technologies and better storage for coping with livelihood shocks, as well as long- and handling infrastructure, and educate con- term productivity-enhancing opportunities or sumers on good eating habits. Reducing food opportunities to exit out of agriculture. Mex- safety risks along the value chain will require ico has had success in improving health, nutri- strong legal, regulatory, and institutional frame- tion, and education for poor families,30 as well works in addition to increased capacity for food as addressing inequality through its conditional safety monitoring. cash transfer program, Oportunidades.31 XX Reduce inequalities with a focus on gender. XX Facilitate south–south knowledge sharing and Addressing inequalities can improve the food learning. To further contribute to the reduction security, nutrition, and potential for advance- of global hunger and malnutrition, MICs should ment of poor and vulnerable people. For example, focus on the mutual exchange of innovative ideas, improving access to quality education for dis- technologies, and policies that have worked with advantaged groups can improve human capital, each other and other developing countries. For which is particularly needed in countries where instance, South Korea’s Knowledge Sharing an inadequate human capital base and skill mis- Platform has promoted development of expe- match are a rising challenge.24 Given the impor- rience-based cooperation since 2004, and its tance of gender equity in improving food security successful New Community Movement is being and nutrition,25 MICs should focus on empow- integrated into development programs in Africa ering women. To close the gender gap, including and Southeast Asia.32 For effective knowledge in agriculture, MICs should increase access to and technology transfer, it is imperative to bear physical, financial, and human capital for women in mind that country-specific conditions matter. and girls.26 For example, agricultural technologies used in XX Improve rural infrastructure. Rural infrastruc- China could be assessed for their applicability in ture development can upgrade the non-farm rural countries with similar geoeconomic and political sector by providing more opportunities for via- landscapes.33 ble livelihoods and improving living standards, thus potentially stemming rural–urban divides.27 CONCLUSION MICs could also improve access to clean water, provide adequate sanitation, promote proper Eliminating hunger and malnutrition should be a top hygiene (WASH), and increase health clinics in priority for MICs, particularly for those with increas- rural areas. Investments in such rural infrastruc- ing global influence and large numbers of hungry ture are particularly important where a lack of and malnourished people. Through mutual learning improved sanitation facilities greatly exacerbates and the capacity to mobilize resources from domes- undernutrition.28 tic sources, MICs can accelerate the pace toward XX Expand effective social safety nets. Scaling up enhanced food security and nutrition in their coun- properly designed and implemented social safety tries. MICs can also play a critical role in helping to nets to protect the poorest is imperative if MICs reduce hunger and malnutrition in other develop- are to address inequality, reduce hunger and ing countries through investments, aid, and knowl- malnutrition, and promote inclusive growth.29 edge sharing. For MICs to best fulfill their vital role Governments can invest more in improving tar- in supporting the elimination of global hunger and geting and scaling up cross-sectoral social safety malnutrition, these countries must promote effective nets. These safety nets should be expanded for country-led strategies that will reduce hunger and vulnerable groups to provide short-term cushion malnutrition at home. ■

ev r ming the omeeming omndndav 17 NOTES

CHAPTER 2 13 J. L. Leroy, J. P. Habicht, T. González de Cossio, and M. T. Ruel, “Maternal Education Mitigates the Negative Effects of Higher 1 “Middle-income economies are those with a GNI (gross national Income on the Double Burden of Child Stunting and Maternal income) per capita of more than $1,045 but less than $12,746.” Overweight in Rural Mexico,” The Journal of Nutrition 144, no. 5 Country and Lending Groups page, World Bank, http://data.world- (2014): 765–770. bank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups, accessed January 7, 14 OECD/FAO, “Overview of the OECD-FAO 2014 Outlook 2014–2023,” 2014. in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2014-4-en, accessed State of Food Insecurity in the World 2014 (Rome: 2014). September 2014. 3 FAO, State of Food and Agriculture in the World 2013 (Rome: 15 T. Reardon, C. P. Timmer, C. B. Barrett, and J. 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114 Notes 22 Nutrition-specific interventions help to address the immediate causes of undernutrition. Nutrition-sensitive interventions address the underlying causes of undernutrition. 23 C. Hawkes and M. T. Ruel, “Value Chains for Nutrition,” in Reshap- ing Agriculture for Nutrition and Health, edited by S. Fan and R. Pandya-Lorch (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2012). 24 L. Zhang, H. Yi, R. Luo, C. Liu, and S. Rozelle, “The Human Capital Roots of the Middle Income Trap: The Case of China,” Agricultural Economics 44, no. s1 (2013): 151–162. 25 R. Meinzen-Dick and A. Quisumbing, “Closing the Gender Gap,” in 2012 Global Food Policy Report (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2013), www.Ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/gfpr2012_ch04.Pdf, accessed January 16, 2015. 26 Ibid. 27 IFPRI, “South Asia: Agricultural and Rural Development” (Wash- ington, DC: 2005), www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ pubs_pubs_books_oc47_oc47.pdf, accessed January 16, 2015; J. Gibson and S. Olivia, “The Effect of Infrastructure Access and Qual- ity on Non-Farm Enterprises in Rural Indonesia,” World Develop- ment 38, no. 5 (May 2010): 717–726. 28 http://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/han- dle/123456789/3816/Wp441R.pdf?sequence=4, accessed January 16, 2015. 29 H. Alderman and J. Hoddinott, “Growth-Promoting Social Safety Nets,” in The Poorest and the Hungry: Assessments, Analyses, and Actions, edited by J. von Braun, R. Vargas Hill, and R. Pandya-Lorch (Washington, DC: IFPRI, 2009). 30 L. Fernald, P. Getler, and L. Neufeld, “10-Year Effect of Oportuni- dades, Mexico’s Conditional Cash Transfer Programme, on Child Growth, Cognition, Language, and Behaviour: A Longitudinal Fol- low-up Study,” The Lancet 374, no. 9706 (2009): 1997–2005. 31 D. Debowicz and J. Golan, “The Impact of Oportunidades on Human Capital and Income Distribution in Mexico: A Top-Down/ Bottom-Up Approach,” Journal of Policy Modeling 36, no. 1 (2014): 24–42. 32 M. Aboubacar, “Emerging Donors and Knowledge Sharing for Development: The Case of Korea,” Yale Journal of International Affairs 9, no. 1 (Winter 2014): 1–11. 33 S. Fan and J. Brzeska, “Production, Productivity, and Public Invest- ment in East Asian Agriculture,” in Handbook of Agricultural Eco- nomics, Vol. 4, edited by P. Pingali and R. Evenson (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2009, 3401–3434).

Notes 115 2014–2015 GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT

FPRI’s flagship report puts into perspective the major food policy issues, developments, and decisions in 2014 and highlights challenges and opportunities for 2015. Drawing on rigorous research, IFPRI researchers and other dis- Itinguished food policy experts consider a wide range of crucial questions: XX How can middle income countries, which despite becoming more affluent are still home to the majority of the world’s hungry people, address their food and nutrition security challenges? XX What is the role of improved sanitation in shaping key nutrition outcomes, especially for children? XX How can we support smallholder farmers in “moving up” in agriculture or “moving out” of the sector altogether? XX What social protection measures help shield vulnerable people effectively and efficiently against an increasing number of shocks? XX How can we best build and regulate the capacity of actors along the food chain to tackle food safety and health risks? XX How should we address food and nutrition security of people living in conflict zones? XX What policies can support the sustainable development of the sector as the global demand for fish skyrockets? XX What have been the major developments in regions and countries where poor and hungry people reside? The2014–2015 Global Food Policy Report also presents data for several key food policy indicators, including country-level data on hunger, agricultural research spending, and capacity for food policy research. In addition to illustrative figures, tables, and a timeline of food policy events during the past year, the report also presents the results of a global opinion poll on the current state of food policy.

For more information about the 2014–2015 Global Food Policy Report: www.ifpri.org/gfpr/2014-2015

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