Michael Pantell, E.I.T. Peterson Brustad Inc. • Model Folsom Dam Flood Scenarios • During Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) • Varying Folsom Dam Outflows • Multiple Breach Locations and Methods • Results • Floodplain Depths • Mortality • Property Damage • Why? • Information not Available to public • To Obtain Masters Degree Built in 1956 Owned by USBR Storage Approx. 1 Mil Ac-ft 12 structures Concrete Main dam Earthen 2 Wing Dams
1 Auxiliary Dam Reference: USBR “Folsom Dam Facility Map” 8 Dikes Sacramento Folsom River Reservoir
Sacramento American River Probable Maximum Flood
American River 1000000 900000 Peak ≈ 900,000 cfs
Basin 800000
700000 PMF 600000 ) Developed by 500000 Flow ( cfs USACE 400000 300000 Project Design 200000 Flood 100000 0 0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 Approx. 25,000 Time (hours) year event Auxiliary Spillway Powerhouse Folsom Dam Flow = 6900 cfs 8 Tainter Gates 5- Main 3- Emergency Auxiliary Spillway Designed to PMF event Dam Outflow
500 PMF Event
490 Overtopping 480 Elevation 470 460
450
440
430
420
410
400 Elevation (NAVD88 feet) Elevation
390
380
370
360
350 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 550000 600000 650000 700000 750000 800000 850000 900000 950000 1000000
Outflow (CFS) Without Spillway With Spillway Mechanisms Overtopping Piping Earthquake Etc
Right Wing Dam Northern Breach Mormon Auxiliary Dam Southern Breach Tallest and longest earthen structures North Earthen structure South Earthen structure
LargerMacDonald Breach Von Thun = Longer & MacDonald Formation Von TimeThun & 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 ∝ 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 MacDonald, et. al.et. al. Gillette et. al. Gillette
Large Breach Width Long- ft Formation3047 Time 374 3916 331 Von Thun & Gillete Height Small- ft Breach 47 47 76 76 Short Formation Time Formation 4.4 0.8 4.1 0.7 Time (hrs) HEC RAS 5.0 2D Mesh 150 m x 150 m Terrain CVFED 1 m resolution Manning’s n Based on CVFED Land Use Jonkman et. al. Jonkman et. al.
1 Breach Zone 0.9 )
D = 1 0.8
0.7 Rapidly Rising/𝐷𝐷 Remaining Zones 0.6 𝐹𝐹 ℎ ln 0.5 = 0.4
0.3 𝐷𝐷 𝑁𝑁 ℎ − 𝜇𝜇 0.2 𝐹𝐹 ℎ Φ Mortality Mortality Fraction (F 0.1 𝜎𝜎
0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Depth (m)
Remaining Zone Rapidly Rising Zone Central Valley Flood Protection Plan
100
90
80
70
60
50
40 Property Damage (%) 30
20
10
0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Depth (ft)
1-story 2-story Split-Level Average Lacking Bathymetric Data Downstream Boundary Condition California Delta Other Rivers Sacramento River Yolo Bypass Not a Comprehensive Floodplain Levees Remain Intact Probable Maximum Flood
Without Auxiliary With Auxiliary Spillway Spillway
Northern Southern Breach Breach
MacDonald Von Thun & MacDonald Von Thun & Gillette Gillette No Breach Floodplain Depth No Breach
(Feet) < 3.3 3.3 - 6.6 6.6 - 9.8 9.8 - 13.1 > 13.1 Floodplain Depth Northern Failure
(Feet) < 3.3 3.3 - 6.6 6.6 - 9.8 9.8 - 13.1 > 13.1 Floodplain Depth Southern Failure
(Feet) < 3.3 3.3 - 6.6 6.6 - 9.8 9.8 - 13.1 > 13.1 Does Not Take Evacuation Into Account
Mortality No Breach
% Mort. of People Remaining Does Not Take Evacuation Into Account
Mortality North Breach
% Mort. of People Remaining Does Not Take Evacuation Into Account
Mortality South Breach
% Mort. of People Remaining Property Damage No Breach Property Damage North Breach Property Damage South Breach Flooding Without Breach Varying Flood Paths High Mortality and Property Damage American River Pocket Natomas