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Final Report - Manfred Wörner Fellowship 2004 / 2005 Prospects For Regional Cooperation on NATO’s South Eastern Border Developing a Turkish-Russian Cooperation in South Caucasus Submitted on 30 June 2005 By Dr. Burcu Gültekin Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris Turkish-Armenian Business Development Council In consultation with the Economy & Conflict Research Group of South Caucasus (ECRG) / International Alert 1 Acknowledgments This report has been possible thanks to NATO’s Manfred Wörner fellowship. I am profoundly grateful to the Public Diplomacy Division at NATO Headquarters, notably to Deputy Assistant Secretary General for External Relations Dr. Jamie Shea and to Dr. Stefanie Babst, Head of NATO Countries Section. My special thanks go to Despina Afentouli, Information Officer Greece and responsible for South Caucasus, whose friendly support has been particularly valuable throughout all the research process, and to Ioanna Synadino. I have benefited from conversations with Robert Simmons, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Security Cooperation and Partnership and with Amb. Daniel Speckhard, Director of Policy Planning at the Office of the Secretary General. My deep thanks go to Ünal Çeviköz, Ambassador of Turkey to Bagdat, who has actively supported my work on the South Caucasus for many years and to Ertan Tezgör, Ambassador of Turkey to Tbilisi for his continuous help and multiple in-depth discussions during my research in Tbilisi. Brigadier General Muzaffer Çarpan, Turkish Armed Forces Attaché at the Turkish Embassy in Tbilisi, David Sikarulidze, Deputy Minister of Defense of Georgia and General Melkunian from the Ministry of Defense of Armenia have been gracious with their time and insights. I am grateful to Henry Cuny, Ambassador of France to Yerevan for his valuable support to my Turkish-Armenian initiatives, and to Amb. Vladimir Pryakhin, OSCE Head of Office in Yerevan, who was kind enough to share with me his regional insights. My special thanks to Tevan Poghosyan, Executive Director of ICHD, who helped me in my contacts in Yerevan. My deep thanks go to Niko Nikozsishvili, former Governor of Samtskhe-Javakheti and currently Ambassador of Georgia to Prag, for our long brainstorming meetings, and to Mikael Hertoft, former ECMI project manager in Javakheti for all his help in Akhalkalaki. Sergey Velichkin, General Consul of the Russian Federation in Istanbul, Alexander Fedorinov, Economic Attaché and Oleg Stepanov, First Secretary at the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi were kind enough to discuss the project with me and share their insights. I am grateful to Dr. Sergey Solodovnik, met in a NATO sponsored conference in Yerevan organized by Dr. Gayane Novikova. Our interactions contributed a lot to the framing of the research proposal I submitted a year later to NATO Public Diplomacy Division. 2 Special thanks go to my colleges and friends of the Economy and Conflict Research Group of South Caucasus and to International Alert. Interactions within this research group have greatly contributed to deepen my understanding of the South Caucasus. I am notably thankful to Guram Abashidze, Aghavni Karakhanian and Artush Mkrtchyan. I am profoundly grateful to Irma Mamushishvili, from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Georgia, met in Paris at the Place de la Sorbonne the night of the Rose Revolution, for her friendship and unfailing support during my stay in Tbilisi. Last but not least, my special thanks go to friends and colleges of the Turkish- Armenian Business Development Council, and particularly to Kaan Soyak, whose complicity has been a constant source of inspiration in defining a vision and strategies for the South Caucasus. 3 CONTENTS Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….p. 8 PART I The Turkish-Caucasian Border ………………………………………………………..p. 14 1. The Traditional Frontline Between Turkey and Russia……………………………p. 14 A. The Caucasian Battlefields : History of the Turkish-Russian Wars on the Caucasian Border………………………………………………………….p. 14 B. The Alignment of the Turkish-Soviet Border in the Context of the First World War………………………………………………….p. 21 C. The Issue of the Border in Turkish-Soviet Relations………………………….…....p. 27 2. The End of the Common Border : the Southern Flank in the Post Cold War Context ………………………………………………………….p. 30 A. The Southern Flank Issue and the CFE Framework………...……………………..p. 30 B. The Failure of a CIS Collective Security Pattern in South Caucasus……………...p. 36 PART II Impact of Cross Border Relations on Georgia’s and Armenia’s Strategic Orientation …………………………………………………..p. 39 1. Impact of Armenia’s Relationship with Russia and Turkey on its Strategic Choices ………………………………………..…………..p. 39 A. The Cornerstones of Armenia’s Relations with Turkey and Russia…………….....p. 39 1. A Costly Military Victory: a Besieged Country 2. Russian Protection Against Turkish Threat 3. Resentments against Russia 4. Armenia and the Euro-Atlantic Integration Process 4 B. The Issue of the Turkish-Armenian Border………………………………………....p. 54 1. Reasons why the Border has to be kept Closed – the Turkish Position 2. Voices from Armenia on the Issue of the Opening of the Border 3. Open Borders will change the Perception of Turkey / Confidence Building Measures 2. The Impact of the Russian Factor on Georgia’s Strategic Orientations…….….…p. 69 A. Georgia and Russia entangled in a Love-Hate Relationship……….………………p. 69 B. Russia, a Major Threat for the Georgian National Security…….…………………p. 72 C. The Pressing Need to settle the Georgian-Russian Relations……………..………..p. 74 D. The Issue of the Russian Bases in the Year 2005………………………..…………..p. 75 E. The Georgian-Russian Border Perceived from Both Sides………………………....p. 83 F. Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic Bid and the Importance of the Turkish-Georgian Border…………………………………..…………………….p. 88 PART III Cross-Border Interactions on NATO’s South Eastern Border 1. Sarp / Sarpi Crossing and the Integration Process between Adjaria and Turkish Eastern Black Sea Region...............................................p. 94 A. The fall of the Iron Curtain and the Opening of the Sarpi Border Crossing….…..p. 94 B. Adjaria’s Gates…………………………………………………………………….…p. 100 C. Increasing Cross-Border Contacts with Turkey Developing Joint Economic Projects………………………………………..………….p. 103 2. Bridging Samtskhe-Javakheti with Turkey………………………………………..p. 108 A. Integrating Samtskhe-Javakheti : Challenges Ahead………………..……………p. 111 B. Regional Links : Importance of the Russian and Armenian Connections…….....p. 116 C. The Turkish Factor……………………………………………..…………………...p. 118 D. Linking Kars and Akhalkalaki: the Regional Impact of the Opening of a Third Turkish-Georgian Border Post at Cildir-Aktas/ Karsatkhi……….…….p. 121 3. Cooperating across the Iron Curtain : Gyumri / Kars …………………………….p. 124 A. The Issue of the Opening of the Turkish-Armenian Border for Kars…………....p. 125 B. Perceptions from Gyumri……………………………………………………………p. 129 5 4. At the Intersection of Four Countries: Cross-Border Interactions Between Igdir and Nakhitchevan……………..………………………...p. 134 A. Nakhitchevan: the Gate of Orient…………………………………………………..p. 135 B. Border Trade in Oil Products: Special Link Between Igdir and Nakhitchevan....p. 136 C. Economic Situation in Nakhitchevan: the Vital Turkish Connection……..……...p. 139 D. The Importance of the Opening Up on Armenia…………………..………………p. 142 Part IV Bridging Turkey to Russia through the Caucasus 1. The New Pattern of Turkish-Russian Relations: Increasing Interdependence through a Pragmatic Approach Based on Business Initiative……………………….p. 144 A. Preparing the End of the Cold War : The Turkish-Soviet Economic Cooperation in the 80’s………………………………p. 144 B. The Russian Federation : Turkey’s First Economic Partner in Eurasia Since the Early 90’s………………………………………..……...p. 145 C. Linkage Business & Politics: Developing a Strategic Partnership with a Regional Outreach……………………...p. 153 2. Transferring the Turkish-Russian Cooperation to the Caucasus: The End of the Common Border ....................................................................................p. 156 A. Rediscovery of the Caucasian Borderlands : the Kars Treaty Tested……….…...p. 156 B. Russia, a Virtual Neighbor along the Land Border Defined by the 1921 Friendship Treaty………………………………………..……....p. 157 C. Stability in South Caucasus, Progressively Recognized as a Key Issue of Turkish-Russian Relations……………………….…………………p. 161 D. Cooperating in South Caucasus Without a Shared Border……..………………...p. 164 PART V Bridging Turkey to Russia through the Caucasus Untying the Georgian-Russian and Armenian-Turkish Knots: Building Trust Through Business……………………………………………..……….p. 168 1. Developing Georgian-Russian Economic Relations………………………………..p. 168 A. The Georgian-Russian Business Forum, May, 2005………………………………p. 168 B. Perceptions of Russian Investments………………………………………………..p. 170 C. The Georgian-Russian Business Council……………………………………..……p. 171 D. Russia’s Involvement in the Energy Sector : Facts and Perceptions …….………p. 175 6 2. Developing Armenian-Turkish Economic Relations……………………………....p. 181 A. The Existing Trade Relations……………………………………………………….p. 181 B. Are the Businessmen Mediators between the Two Countries?...............................p. 183 Part VI Bridging Turkey to Russia through the Caucasus: Developing a Turkish-Russian Cooperation in South Caucasus……………………p. 187 1. Bridging Turkey to Russia through the Caucasus: Laying Down the Infrastructure: Linking Turkey to Rehabilitated South Caucasian Infrastructure…………….…....p. 187 A. Linking Turkey to the South Caucasian Railway Network………………….……p. 187 B.
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