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Submission 32 Attachment.Pdf 2.23 Mb Augmentation of the Melbourne Water Supply System Analysis of Potential System Behaviour Contents 1 Introduction 01 2 Background 03 2.1 Melbourne’s Water Supply System 03 2.2 Observed Reductions in Inflows: 1997 to 2007 05 2.3 Observed Reductions in Storage Volumes: 1997 to 2008 06 2.4 Water Restrictions: 1997 to 2008 07 2.5 Recent Trends in Bulk Water Consumption 08 3 Analysis of Potential System Behaviour 09 3.1 Purpose of the Analysis 09 3.2 Methodology: Overview of the REALM Model 09 3.3 Methodology: Application of the REALM Model 10 3.4 Independent Model Verification 10 4 Key Assumptions 11 4.1 Inflows 11 4.1.1 Issues regarding Future Inflows 11 4.1.2 Scenarios for Analysis 12 4.2 Demand 13 4.2.1 Issues regarding Future Demand 13 4.2.2 Scenarios for Analysis 15 4.3 Supply from Augmentation Projects 16 4.3.1 Tarago Reservoir 16 4.3.2 Sugarloaf Pipeline 16 4.3.3 Desalination Plant 16 4.3.4 Eastern Treatment Plant Upgrade 16 4.4 Other Key Assumptions 16 5 Potential System Behaviour following Augmentation 17 5.1 Overview of Model Outputs 17 5.2 Guide to Reading Model Outputs 17 5.3 System Behaviour under 3-year Inflow Scenario 18 5.4 Extent of Initial Storage Recovery 19 5.4.1 Overview 19 5.4.2 Significance of Supply from the Desalination Plant 19 5.4.3 Significance of Demand 19 5.4.4 Significance of Inflows 21 5.5 Potential Need for Further System Augmentation in Future 22 5.5.1 Overview 22 5.5.2 Significance of Supply from the Desalination Plant 22 5.5.3 Significance of Inflows 22 5.5.4 Significance of Demand 24 6 Issues Arising from Analysis 26 7 Conclusions 27 8 Endnotes 28 Augmentation of the Melbourne Water Supply System Analysis of Potential System Behaviour 1 > For more than a decade, large Our Water Our Future: parts of southern and eastern Securing Our Water Future Australia have suffered from Together 2 dry conditions that are without June 2004 1 Introduction historical precedent . A plan to secure Victoria’s water future for the next 50 years. Set out clear Continuing low levels of rainfall and record low actions to achieve a more sustainable inflows have had significant implications for water management and allocation system those Australian urban centres and communities across Victoria. One such action was the that rely on surface water resources for urban development of regional sustainable water water supply. For example, inflows to the four strategies to help plan for greater water main harvesting reservoirs for Melbourne during security in regions across the State the calendar year of 2006 were the lowest in (Action 2.11). almost 100 years of recorded history, being in the order of 165 gigalitres as opposed to the long-term annual average of 590 gigalitres. The sensible, considered and holistic response of the Victorian Government to the water supply challenges associated with ongoing drought and climate change are outlined as follows. Page 1 > > Central Region Sustainable Our Water Our Future: Our Water Our Future: The Next Stage of the Water Strategy 3 The Next Stage of the Government’s Water Plan (the Water Plan) October 2006 Government’s Water Plan4 highlighted that the planned initial capacity of the June 2007 Desalination Plant was 150 gigalitres of water Encompassed regional centres and com- per annum, but that this capacity would be munities in Ballarat, Geelong, Western- Confirmation of unprecedented low inflows capable of being varied prior to the Expressions port, the Latrobe Valley and Melbourne. in the calendar year of 2006 demonstrated of Interest phase of tendering for the project in Considered the possibility that the impacts the need for large-scale supply-side 2008. Reasons for variation might include better of climate change will involve a step reduc- augmentations for the Melbourne water information from studies of climate change. tion in water supplies rather than a gradual supply system. Provides long-term solutions This report provides an overview of detailed reduction over 50 years. Committed to a to secure Victoria’s water supplies by: number of actions to help balance supply water resource modelling analysis undertaken ≥ Building a desalination plant in the and demand: by Melbourne Water, in consultation with the Wonthaggi region. Department of Sustainability and Environment. ≥ Saving water through upgrading ≥ Water conservation programs, with This analysis was undertaken with the aim of irrigation channels in the Food Bowl targets set for the reduction of total per better understanding the potential behaviour of region of Northern Victoria. capita drinking water consumption, the Melbourne water supply system, following ≥ Expanding the Water Grid to pipe water plus a range of additional measures to its augmentation in accordance with the Water around the State, including the new achieve water use efficiency. Plan; that is, following reconnection of the Tarago Sugarloaf Pipeline connecting ≥ Use of alternate sources of water Reservoir and the introduction of the Sugarloaf Melbourne to the Goulburn River. including recycled water, greywater Pipeline and the Desalination Plant. The recovery ≥ Extending water conservation and and stormwater, including feasibility of storage levels in the augmented Melbourne recycling programs, including studies for large scale stormwater water supply system was analysed under a range upgrading the Eastern Treatment Plant treatment and reuse options, in of assumptions about future inflows to the system and preparing a Business Case particular at Dight’s Falls. and future demand on the system. regarding the use of recycled water ≥ Interconnecting water supply systems The analysis was designed to be used by the from the upgraded plant. and expanding water markets, Victorian Government to confirm whether the including connecting Ballarat to the Based on the completion of feasibility initial capacity of the desalination plant should be Goulburn irrigation system and studies regarding large-scale augmentation 150 gigalitres of water per annum. The analysis investigating a Melbourne-Geelong options for Melbourne, including will also inform how to optimise the operation of interconnection. desalination, recycled water and the Melbourne water supply system, following ≥ Augmenting current water supply stormwater options, as per the Central its augmentation. Care should be taken not to systems, including the reintroduction of Region Sustainable Water Strategy. extrapolate from this analysis conclusions in the Tarago Reservoir and feasibility relation to other water issues. The assumptions studies for non-rainfall dependent made in the course of this analysis were chosen sources of water such as desalination in order to test the range of potential outcomes (Action 3.27). that affect the size of the Desalination Plant. Committed to the monitoring of climatic conditions each year to enable judgements to be made on whether particular actions need to come forward or be pushed back. Developed in partnership with water and catchment management authorities. Resulted from a comprehensive 18 month consultation process, which included a Discussion Paper, Draft Strategy, public meetings, public submissions and scrutiny by an independent panel of experts. Informed by the Water Supply Demand Strategy developed for Melbourne in 2005, which outlines environmentally sustainable, socially acceptable and cost effective demand-side solutions to save and source water for Melbourne. This strategy will be updated every five years and progress on its implementation will be reported via the annual reports of the Melbourne water businesses. Augmentation of the Melbourne Water Supply System Analysis of Potential System Behaviour Page 2 2 Background 2.1 Melbourne’s Water Supply System Most of Melbourne’s water is sourced from The Thomson Reservoir in Gippsland, Upper Wallaby Creek catchments to the north, together uninhabited mountain ash forests located Yarra Reservoir, O’Shannassy Reservoir and with water transferred from harvesting reservoirs high up in the Yarra Ranges to the east of Maroondah Reservoir are collectively referred to to the east. as Melbourne’s four main harvesting storages. Melbourne. More than 157,000 hectares of The Greenvale Reservoir, Silvan Reservoir Supply from these reservoirs are supplemented these native forests have been reserved as and Cardinia Reservoir are seasonal transfer by supply from the Sugarloaf Reservoir, which water supply catchments, meaning that these storages, which primarily hold water that is holds water pumped directly from the Yarra River forests are protected for the primary purpose transferred from the main harvesting reservoirs to together with water transferred from Maroondah of harvesting water. The protected nature of the east. However, there are weirs on five Yarra Reservoir via the Maroondah Aqueduct. In these water supply catchments means that tributaries downstream of Upper Yarra Reservoir future, the Sugarloaf Reservoir will also receive most of Melbourne’s water requires only minimal that collect water, particularly during seasonal Melbourne’s share of the water savings provided treatment before it is delivered to consumers. spring rainfall events, which is transferred to by the Northern Victoria Irrigation Renewal Melbourne is only one of a few cities in the Silvan Reservoir and then into supply or to Project. Yan Yean Reservoir also holds a small world that has such protected water supply Cardinia Reservoir for storage. catchments. amount of water harvested from the Silver and The Melbourne water supply system currently
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