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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Monday, December 21, 2015 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Monday, December 21, 2015 BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group POLITICAL Genaro Arriagada How Aggressive Nonresident Senior Fellow, Costa Rica to Inter-American Dialogue Suspend Cuban Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, Will Venezuela’s Migrants’ Visas JPMorgan Chase & Co. President Luis Guillermo Solís W. Bowman Cutter Former Partner, New Assembly Be? said the government would not E.M. Warburg Pincus allow any more Cuban migrants Dirk Donath heading to the United States to Senior Partner, enter its territory. The announce- Catterton Aimara ment came after Central American Marlene Fernández leaders met but failed to fi nd a Corporate Vice President for solution to the migration crisis. Government Relations, Arcos Dorados Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, BUSINESS Inter-American Dialogue Donna Hrinak U.S. Authorities President, Boeing Latin America Arrest Jon Huenemann Vice President, U.S. & Int’l Affairs, Businessman Philip Morris International After winning control of Venezuela’s National Assembly earlier this month, members of the opposition vowed to free imprisoned opposition leaders, including Leopoldo López, who has With PDVSA Ties James R. Jones been jailed for nearly two years. // File Photo: Facebook page of Leopoldo López. Co-chair, Manatt Jones Roberto Rincón was arrested in Global Strategies LLC Venezuela’s opposition won a two-thirds “supermajority” in Houston on charges including Craig A. Kelly money laundering. Director, Americas International the country’s legislative vote on Dec. 6, reaching a level that Page 3 Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil will empower opposition members to make sweeping chang- John Maisto Q es in Venezuela’s political and economic landscape, though Director, U.S. Education ECONOMIC Finance Group President Nicolás Maduro has vowed to block many of the opposition’s Nicolás Mariscal Brazilian Chairman, proposals. How will the supermajority approach legislating in a divided Grupo Marhnos government? Does the opposition coalition risk making too many chang- President Sacks Thomas F. McLarty III es too quickly, and thus risking the ire of voters? Will Maduro be able to Finance Minister President, McLarty Associates effectively impede the opposition’s attempts to make drastic changes? Brazilian President DIlma Rous- Carlos Paz-Soldan What economic changes are expected for Venezuela in the year ahead? seff replaced Finance Minister Partner, Joaquim Levy, who was named to DTB Associates, LLP What political changes will be made? the post just over a year ago, and Beatrice Rangel replaced him with her planning Director, minister, Nelson Barbosa. AMLA Consulting LLC Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue: Page 2 José Antonio Ríos “With a supermajority in the new legislature, the opposition Chief Executive Offi cer, Vadium Technology Inc. has considerable powers and for the fi rst time in 17 years Gustavo Roosen can serve as a check on the executive. At the same time, Chairman of the Board, A Envases Venezolanos the new context poses tough dilemmas for an opposition that benefi ted Andrés Rozental from widespread anger with the dismal economic performance of the President, Rozental & Asociados and Senior Maduro government. It has to weigh possible trade-offs and decide to Policy Advisor, Chatham House what extent, and at what pace, it will pursue political measures or, rather, Shelly Shetty Head, Latin America focus on enacting laws that can provide some economic relief, which for Sovereign Ratings, Fitch Inc. most Venezuelans is of utmost concern. The opposition can, of course, Roberto Sifon-Arevalo decide to do both, but some real options—such as gathering signatures Managing Director, Americas Sovereign & Public Finance Ratings, for a recall referendum against Maduro (which would have to take place Standard & Poor’s in 2016)—carry risks, and would make less likely any negotiation or cooperation between the assembly and executive on an economic agenda Levy // File Photo: Brazilian Government. Continued on page 3 COPYRIGHT © 2015, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 1 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, December 21, 2015 ECONOMIC NEWS ment last year. Barbosa, who now replaces NEWS BRIEFS Levy, is viewed as a close Rousseff ally and Brazilian President worked under former Brazilian Finance Minister Chilean Airport Guido Mantega. Rousseff named Barbosa the Workers End Strike Replaces Finance country’s planning minister earlier this year. On Friday, Barbosa told reporters that his top More than 3,000 Chilean airport workers have Minister priority is bringing fi scal balance to Brazil. “The ended a four-day strike and gone back to work, Brazilian government ... has all the instruments the Civil Aviation Directorate announced Sun- Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff on Friday to solve the problems we face,” said Barbosa, day afternoon, La Tercera reported. Thousands replaced her fi nance minister, Joaquim Levy, the AP reported. “I have complete confi dence of holiday travelers were inconvenienced by the and named Planning Minister Nelson Barbosa that Brazil has all it takes to overcome the labor action in recent days, which has yet to be to the post. Levy’s ouster came just more current diffi culties.” fully resolved as union negotiators continue to than a year after he was appointed as fi nance seek military-grade benefi ts for the workers. minister. During that year, Latin America’s Chilean Defense Minister José Antonio Gómez largest economy has deteriorated markedly as POLITICAL NEWS called the strike “irrational” and “unfortunate,” GDP has shrunk for three consecutive quarters, noting some strikers resorted to “aggression” two of the three major ratings agencies have Costa Rica to and may be fi ned. I come to the end of Suspend Cuban 2015 worrying about Migrants’ Visas U.S., Mexico the situation of the Sign Airline Treaty country, particularly Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solís The United States and Mexico on Friday signed the economy.” announced Friday that his government was an air treaty that seeks to liberalize the air — Joaquim Levy suspending the visas of any Cuban migrants travel market, making it possible for airlines who attempt to enter the Central American on both sides of the border to set their own downgraded the country’s debt to junk status, country in an effort to head north toward the prices and fl y any routes they choose, The Wall annual infl ation has risen past 10 percent, a United States, the Associated Press reported. Street Journal reported. The treaty still must be massive corruption scandal has widened at “Please do not come to Costa Rican territory. If ratifi ed by the Mexican Senate in order to take state-run oil company Petrobras and Rousseff you do, you will be deported,” Solís said. There effect. While both U.S. and Mexican airlines is facing an impeachment attempt. Levy’s time are approximately 6,000 Cuban migrants stuck hailed the accord, some smaller carriers fear as fi nance minister was rocky and included in limbo in Costa Rica after Nicaragua’s govern- that planned alliances among industry heavy- frequent clashes with the president and repeat- ment last month refused to allow them to tran- weights could give the largest carriers an upper ed economic proposals that failed to make hand. Another hurdle is the lack of infrastruc- it through Congress, the Associated Press ture at some airports, which would limit the reported. In her announcement about Levy’s de- capacity to add new fl ights, even though new parture, Rousseff expressed her thanks for his rules would permit them. service and wished him future success but did not elaborate. In a separate statement issued before the president’s, Levy expressed con- Chile’s Colbun Buys cerns about the state of Latin America’s largest economy. “I come to the end of 2015 worrying Fenix Power Perú about the situation of the country, particularly for $171 Million Solís // File Photo: Costa Rican Government. the economy,” said Levy, the AP reported. “But I Chilean electric utility Colbun said Friday it has keep great confi dence in our economy’s ability sit through its territory. The Cubans are headed purchased power generator Fenix Power Perú to recover and its potential to grow.” Levy, who north amid fears that the U.S.-Cuba thaw will for $171.4 million, Reuters reported. Fenix was educated at the University of Chicago mean an end to the Washington’s policy that Power’s net assets, principally a 570-megawatt and spent time as a top executive at Brazilian allows Cubans to stay if they reach dry land. thermoelectric natural gas plant as well as net bank Bradesco, faced suspicion by the more Solís’ statement came after Central American debt of $614.6 million, are valued at $786 mil- leftist members of the ruling Workers’ Party, leaders met in El Salvador but failed to come lion. Fenix Power says it produces 10 percent some of whom openly opposed his appoint- up with a solution to the migration crisis. of the electricity consumed in Peru today. COPYRIGHT © 2015, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Monday, December 21, 2015 FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 BUSINESS NEWS (for example, devaluation of the bolívar). from further increases in the prices of basic Yet, although Chavismo may see an amnesty goods. The opposition has the potential to U.S. Authorities law as similarly confrontational, it is hard to further consolidate, but only if they take into Arrest Businessman imagine how the opposition can fail to try and free the country’s political prisoners— With Ties to PDVSA most prominently, Leopoldo López—when it The opposition has the power to do so. Divided government has the potential to Venezuelan businessman Roberto Rincón was could give both sides the political cover further consolidate, arrested in Houston on Friday by U.S.
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