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Illiberalism in the V4: Pressure Points and Bright Spots

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Illiberalism in the V4: Pressure Points and Bright Spots ILLIBERALISM IN THE V4: PRESSURE POINTS AND BRIGHT SPOTS Authors: Vit Dostal Lóránt Győri Grigorij Meseznikov Wojciech Przybylski Edit Zgut Edited by Edit Zgut Proofreading: Patrik Szicherle May, 2018 Political Capital and Friedrich Naumann Stiftung TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents .................................................................................................................................. 2 Executive summary ............................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Hungary: a unique laboratory in the EU ................................................................................................. 8 Constitution ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Checks and balances......................................................................................................................... 10 Media ............................................................................................................................................... 11 Civil society ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Clientelism and corruption ............................................................................................................... 14 Electoral system ............................................................................................................................... 15 Party system .................................................................................................................................... 16 Centralisation of power, outsourcing power ..................................................................................... 17 Social preconditions ......................................................................................................................... 18 Attitudes towards democracy and values ........................................................................................ 20 Anti-West rhetoric ............................................................................................................................ 21 Ideology .......................................................................................................................................... 22 Poland: illiberalism in the making ........................................................................................................ 24 Constitution ..................................................................................................................................... 25 Media ............................................................................................................................................... 27 Civil society ..................................................................................................................................... 28 Local governments .......................................................................................................................... 29 Clientelism, corruption ..................................................................................................................... 30 Electoral system ............................................................................................................................... 31 Party system .................................................................................................................................... 31 Societal preconditions ...................................................................................................................... 33 Ideology ........................................................................................................................................... 33 Attitudes towards democracy and values ......................................................................................... 34 Attitudes towards the West .............................................................................................................. 35 Illiberal tendencies in Slovakia: proponents and opponents ................................................................. 37 Constitutional and electoral system ................................................................................................. 37 Media ............................................................................................................................................... 38 Civil society ...................................................................................................................................... 39 Clientelism and corruption ............................................................................................................... 39 Attitudes on democratic values, trust in institutions, role of conspiracy theories ............................. 40 Attitudes towards the West .............................................................................................................. 41 2 Approach to market economy and capitalism, demand for a strong state ....................................... 42 Ideology .......................................................................................................................................... 42 An Illiberal drift in the Czech Republic? Risks of a “so far so good” approach ....................................... 44 Constitution, electoral system ......................................................................................................... 44 Attitudes towards democracy and institutions ................................................................................ 46 Media .............................................................................................................................................. 46 Civil society ..................................................................................................................................... 46 Clientelism and corruption ............................................................................................................... 47 Approach to market economy .......................................................................................................... 47 Ideology ........................................................................................................................................... 47 Attitudes towards the West, role of conspiracy theories .................................................................. 48 The role of the EU................................................................................................................................ 49 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Democratic backsliding has definitely become a trend in the Visegrád countries with Hungary and Poland leading the charge. Meanwhile, shifts in Slovakia and the Czech Republic did not result in deeper changes to the institutional system. • The main difference between the Hungarian and the Polish model is that while the power political methods and the institutional makeup of the Orbán-regime showcases authoritarian traits, the Kaczyński regime, still in the infancy of illiberal state building, can still be described as a watered-down democracy where some institutional checks and balances are still functioning. • When it comes to constitutional arrangements, Poland remains more stable than Hungary due to factors such as the more extensive role and direct mandate of the president, a proportional electoral system that helps blocking the formation of constitutional supermajorities, and the multi-level structure of local self-governments. The latter provide at least some balance to the central administration. • The increasingly undemocratic political culture – rapidly shifting institutional standards and illegal procedures – is the main culprit of undermining Polish liberal democracy. The 2015 election result does not legitimise the extent of systemic changes introduced by Jarosław Kaczyński, whose party usurped the right to change constitutional arrangements without changing the law itself. Moreover, the overhaul of the judiciary system is in an advanced stage, while in Hungary the judiciary is independent of the government – at least for the moment. • There are two main characteristics of the Orbán regime. It does not want to dissolve democratic institutions completely but strives to empty them of content. Consequently, they have become unable to restrict the government. Additionally, the informal exercise of power plays a central role in illiberal system-building in Hungary. The essence of the system is dissolving social autonomy through the establishment of feudal relationships of dependence. The Hungarian government is “untouchable” for Brussels partly because – for instance – the EU procedures aimed at monitoring the institutional and legal system cannot deal with informal power politics. • Both Orbán and Kaczyński are abandoning the achievements of the democratic transition, and they are both referring to the failure of this period when they are altering the political system. This is ironic given that they were around the roundtables deciding on their respective countries’ futures themselves. However, since 2015, references to the threats
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