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World Sugar Yearbook 2021 Internationalsugarjournal.Com International Sugar Journal World Sugar Yearbook 2021 internationalsugarjournal.com International Sugar Journal World Sugar Yearbook 2021 68 Review of current practices in evaporator Contents cleaning DW Rackemann, B Phakam, L Moghaddam and Papers WOS Doherty 4 World sugar deficit shrinks to 1.7 million t 76 Investment activity in the global sugar sector in 2020/21 over the period July 2019 to June 2020 F.O. Licht A Chudasama 14 Review of fundamental milling measurements 86 IIoT for batch centrifugals – initial results and modelling, and a way forward A Lehnberger F Plaza 92 Remote digital visual inspection and the 20 An evaporator station model for estimating creation of a digital twin in support of exhaust steam conversion and consumption inspection strategies KM Foxon AV Daele 32 Scale up studies for the simultaneous removal 98 Factors affecting recent trends in sugar of colorants and protein from a refinery sugar beet yields and implications for sugarcane liquor using powdered activated carbon productivity – A pilot plant study K Jaggard and T Rosbrook IM Lima, AM Jiménez, G Eggleston, B Pabon, E Sarir, J Thompson 106 Harvesting groups – the key to improving harvesting practice 42 Conversion of cane starch to fermentable P Patane, B Milford, G Landers, M Thompson, B Nothard, sugars in cane molasses fermentation CA Norris and C Venables M Saska, S Zossi, M Coronel and M Ruiz 112 Effect of post-harvest cleaning on cane yield 50 Targeted dextranase application for problem GA Kent, SP Ginns, JH Panitz and BG Robotham mitigation during sucrose crystallisation K Abrahama, H Brykczynskib, ESJ Rudolph-Flötera, 120 Towards a molecular toolkit to assess E Flötera biological health of soil AJ Young, NL Wilson, MB Thomson, S Fitzgerald, 60 Exploration of sugarcane products as a K Fitzgerald, C Baldock, M Stirling and G Stirling major source of antioxidant phenolic extracts in commercial foods and beverages G Eggleston and G Aita Editorial Comments: 13, 49, 58, 75, 85, 91, 97 and 119 International Sugar Journal, Agribusiness, IHS Markit Ltd. www.internationalsugarjournal.com Ropemaker Place, 25 Ropemaker Street, London EC2Y 9LY, UK. Phone: +44 207-260-2000 All technical articles have been approved by our panel of distinguished referees. Other editorial material, including Editorial: abstracts, appear at the discretion of the Editor. Editor: Arvind Chudasama, MSc., MAgSt. (Qld), MCLIP Email: [email protected] ISSN 0020-8841 International Sugar Journal is published monthly by IHS Markit Ltd. Display and online advertising: Business Development Manager: Ben Watkins Cover Image: Pascal Lagesse I Getty images Phone: +44 203-855-3860/+44 783-304-7163 Copyright © 2021, IHS Markit®. Email: [email protected] All rights reserved and all intellectual property rights are retained by IHS Markit. For more information on the products and services from Any unauthorized use, disclosure, reproduction, or dissemination, in full or in IHS Markit, please contact our Customer Care Team: part, in any media or by any means, without the prior written permission of IHS https://ihsmarkit.com/about/contact-us.html Markit or any of its affiliates (“IHS Markit”) is strictly prohibited. internationalsugarjournal.com 3 World sugar deficit shrinks to 1.7 million t in 2020/21 Introduction mid-February ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. F.O. Licht The most-active March raw sugar futures contract White sugar prices have been more volatile in in New York rose to 13.57 cents per pound during recent months but a rally to US$398.50 a tonne Agribusiness Intelligence, the third week in September, the highest level for in mid-June could not be sustained with prices Energy & Natural a most-active raw sugar contract since the early currently trading around US$370 per tonne, which Resources days of March. The market is currently defying is still comfortably above a 7-1/2-month low of Am Mühlengraben 22, D-23909 Ratzeburg, ample sugar availability from Brazil’s record 2020 US$315.60 per tonne hit in late April. Germany sugar crop that will likely come to an end by mid- It is against this background that this update of November. A recent weakening of the Brazilian the world sugar balance for 2020/21 (Oct/Sep) is Email: currency, which is raising returns in local currency presented. We would like to recall that F.O. Licht christoph.berg@ihsmarkit. from dollar-denominated sugar sales, is also does not include the sugar equivalent of beet and com usually bearish for sugar prices and good monsoon cane that were not processed into the end product rainfall in India will likely lead to a massive rise crystal sugar (such as those used for fuel ethanol in sugar output in the Asian country, which is or biogas) in its sugar production estimates, raising the need for another major sugar export which differs from the approach used by some program. The only bullish fundamental factors in sugar associations and official EU statistics. the market are currently prospects for rather poor All production figures are in raw value terms, production in the European Union and Russia in which can be converted to white value terms by the upcoming beet campaigns. But despite the multiplying by 0.92. recovery from the coronavirus-induced meltdown Whenever we release a new forecast we that had taken prices as low as 9.05 cents in late clearly point out that our World Sugar Production April, the No. 11 market is still significantly lower forecasts are based on national crop years, while than the two-year high of 15.90 cents touched in each country's numbers are recalculated to a Figure 1: World sugar balance Source: Licht Interactive Data ©2020 IHS Markit 4 ISJ's World Sugar Yearbook 2021 | ©2021 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. World sugar deficit shrinks to 1.7 million t in 2020/21 uniform time period (in our case Oct/Sep) for A reduction by 0.9 million tonnes to 45.8 the purpose of this World Sugar Balance (figure million could be on the cards for South America 1) forecast - the precondition for the calculation in 2020/21 as the prospect of a lower cane crush of the change in stocks (i.e. the surplus/deficit) and reduced sugar content of the cane in the next during a given year. While this may sound boring 2021 crush may lead to a drop in output in Brazil. for expert readers it is still imperative to do this as Given that most (March-September) of the 2020 anecdotal evidence suggests that the numbers are crush falls into the 2019/20 sugar balance year the still mixed up from time to time. sharp increase in output in recent months has been Current indications are that global production the key reason for the sharp drop of the 2019/20 in 2020/21 (October/September) may rise by 4.9 world sugar deficit rather than having an effect on million tonnes to 183.4 million tonnes. This is the 2020/21 deficit. practically unchanged from the August projection. Sugar production in Europe is projected to The sugar production estimate for 2019/20 has been raised a little to 178.5 million tonnes from Table 1: World sugar balance October/September (1,000 tonnes, 178.1 million previously, mainly because of raw value) the better production outlook for Brazil's CS in Sugar 2020/21 2019/20 2018/19 2017/18 2016/17 the current 2020 crush of which the better part Opening stocks 73,327.1 78,929.7 78,877.4 69,206.9 71,279.4 (everything produced up to 30 September, 2020) falls into the 2019/20 (October/September) sugar Production 183,432.8 178,482.9 184,657.7 194,210.1 179,628.9 year (tables 1 and 2). Imports 68,409.8 70,105.3 65,187.9 69,692.4 70,503.3 Apparent consumption in 2019/20 has been Consumption 184,271.8 181,138.1 182,949.8 182,593.6 180,194.8 reduced by a further 0.2 million tonnes since Exports 69,254.8 73,052.7 66,843.5 71,638.4 72,009.9 August to 181.1 million due to the adverse Ending stocks 71,643.1 73,327.1 78,929.7 78,877.4 69,206.9 effects from COVID-19, with 1.7% growth +/-Production 4,949.9 - 6,174.8 -9,552.4 14,581.2 5,458.5 projected for 2020/21. The downward revision +/-% 2.77 -3.34 -4.92 8.12 3.13 for this season means that there will be the first +/-Consumption 3,133.7 -1,811.7 356.2 2,398.8 578.0 outright contraction in global sugar demand since +/-% 1.73 -0.99 0.20 1.33 0.32 1980/81, and the decline is seen at 1.8 million Stocks in % of consumption 38.88 40.48 43.14 43.20 38.41 tonnes (table 3). Global surplus/deficit -1,684.0 -5,602.6 52.3 9,670.5 -2,072.5 These changes mean that the deficit for the Note: May not add due to roundings; consumption excluding unrecorded disappearance ©2020 IHS Markit 2019/20 season coming to an end these days is currently seen at 5.6 million tonnes, which is Table 3: World Production, Consumption and Stocks of down from as much as 11.1 million in February. Centrifugal Sugar October/September (1,000 tonnes, raw value) The deficit projection for 2020/21 is 1.7 million Year World World Ending Stocks as % tonnes, down from 2.4 million in August. production consumption* stocks of consumption That includes an allowance for unrecorded 2011/12 174,356 168,100 63,964 38.05 disappearance (the difference between world 2012/13 184,176 171,673 74,234 43.24 exports and imports) of 0.8 million tonnes in 2013/14 181,509 175,948 78,851 44.82 2020/21.
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