Agile Leadership and Management of Change

Project Lessons from and

Presentation to CMIT September 25th, 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland

“Lessons From the Past that Assist the Projects of Today to Shape the World of Tomorrow” www.lessons-from-history.com

Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland About Lessons-from-History series

. 1993 – Initial idea . 1994 – Idea matured . 1995 – White paper . 1996 – Book outline . 1998 – Manuscript . 2000 – Accepted by publisher . 2002 – First publication . 2003 – First speaking event . 2004 – Web site . 2005 – Second publication . 2006 – Third publication . 2007 – Fourth publication . 2009 – Fifth publication

www.lessons-from-history.com

2 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Why the Lessons-from-History series was created?

. The books from the series . The series uses relevant have been written for historical case studies to organizations applying today's examine how historical business and technology projects and emerging techniques to common technologies of the past business problems. solved complex problems. . Lessons from the past assist . It then draws comparisons to projects of today in shaping challenges encountered in the world of tomorrow. today's projects.

3 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland What is available from the Lessons-from-History series?

. Speaking events – Presentation or workshop. – Trackrecord 160 presentations to 10,000 attendees.

4 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland This is the story of how one man inspired his nation to continue a fight thought lost.

. In May 1940, the (UK) was facing a dire situation, an imminent invasion. . Churchill had to – mobilize quickly and act with agility to assemble a defense. – transform the UK, restructure his organization and its processes. – make right investments, apply resources, and deliver solution in short time. . Churchill turned a disastrous situation into an unexpected victory.

. Example of an agile project in flight. . Please prepare questions for the end of the presentation.

5 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Agile Project Management is nothing new. To understand it we need to go back to May 1940 to a time of continuous change

. UK faced a grim situation. . UK unprepared for war Chamberlain stalling for peace. . Chamberlain trying to manage his way out of a bad situation. . Audacious attack on Denmark/Norway, led to Chamberlains demise. . Campaign demonstrates changes in war - mechanization & communication. . In unpredictable environment Chamberlain is forced to resign.

6 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland On May 10th 1940 Churchill became PM and within 2 weeks he was facing the biggest military catastrophe in British History

. Day 1 – invasion in the West . Day 5 – Holland capitulates . Day 7 - Axis break through at Sedan . Day 10 - Axis reach . Day 15 - 2 armies surrounded in a pocket . Churchill faced with disaster asked Chiefs of Staff to report on problem of defense of UK . Report stressed overwhelming superiority of enemy on land and air.

7 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland At the Allies miraculously got large numbers away with nothing but the shirts on their backs

. was seeking peaceful solution . UK government reluctant to fight on. . Evacuation a logistical nightmare – 900 vessels (naval, commercial and private). . Initial predictions for 45,000 troops . Troops evacuated per day: – May 29th, 47,300 – May 30th, 53,823 – May 31st, 68,000 – June 1st, 64,429 – June 2nd, 26,200 . Astonishingly 338,226 troops evacuated – Total - 224,686 British, – 121,445 French and Belgian, – (plus German POWs)

8 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The cost of Dunkirk was incredibly high in losses of ship and

. In last 2 weeks of May 1940 the (RAF) sustained massive losses of 500 fighters in air battle. . In total RAF lost 1,029 aircraft and over 1,500 personnel. . At Dunkirk lost 200 ships and 177 aircraft (109 fighters). . The Axis lost 240 aircraft.

9 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Although “spun” into a victory in reality Dunkirk was a mitigated disaster as the army lost 90% of its heavy equipment

. More than 75,000 vehicles & trucks, & 400 tanks. . 650,000 tons of arms, ammunition and supplies were left behind – 1,200 field guns, – 1,350 anti-aircraft & anti-tank guns, – 11,000 machine guns. . All sorely needed to defend the UK. . Undefended coast line, no defenses.

10 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Spin on Dunkirk was almost too successful, set off wave of public euphoria were gallant loser escapes at last moment

. Ministry of Information (MOI), prepared public for bad news. . MOI changed news stories of Anglo- French successes May 10-14th, . Churchill and MOI not sure of outcome adopted different positions. . Implemented news management. – Controlled source, issued communiqués to newspapers – Editors interpreted, gave appearance of diversity. . Growth of over news paper . Dunkirk propaganda victory role of "little boats" . Saved Churchill’s position.

11 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The problems had to be prioritized, short and long term, and then addressed. Churchill is determined to fight on. "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.” May 13

. Small army with little . 675 RAF fighters, equipment. 50% below strength, . Undefended coast line, faced estimated no defenses. 3,500 aircraft (1100 . Economy on civilian, fighters). not war footing. . Fighter production . UK over populated vastly industrialized. very low (290 vs 500 per . All raw materials imported (except coal). month), 6 months behind schedule. . 67% of food imported. . Pilot shortage, 60% below operational strength.

Lessons for Agile PM – clearly state organizational challenges.

12 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill’s architects recognize invasion only possible with victory in air. RAF Fighter Command is critical organization.

. could only prevent sea invasion with massive air cover. . Override pressure to invest in . . RAF to defend a very long coast line. . Raids into British air space in 10 minutes, over in another 10 minutes.

Lessons for Agile PM – determine which organizations play a lead role and what has the greatest value.

13 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill defines vision, and short and long term objectives that looked beyond the imminent air battle.

. Short term (2 months): – Convince cabinet, government, people to fight on. – Win the air battle and stall invasion till spring 1941. – Restore nation’s confidence in his government. . Long term (5-7 years): – Move economy to war footing to sustain total economic warfare. – Expand war through an alliance with U.S. – Responsibilities to free world and occupied Europe

Lessons for Agile PM – Create guiding vision, clearly state short and long term organizational objectives.

14 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill is presented rough “technology diamonds” to incorporate in project, and integrate into solution in short term.

. A modern and technically outstanding fighter in the Spitfire, but in small numbers (33%).

. RAF Fighter Command - geographically distributed and networked installations (5 yrs old).

. Bletchley Park shows great promise in breaking Enigma with machines.

. testing proves success of the technology.

. A secure, blast proof, underground facility near Downing Street with good communications.

Lessons for Agile PM – assess all emerging technology options.

15 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland problems faced by Churchill in May 1940 were complexity & rate of change, confidence and overall priorities.

. Lack of confidence around him . “He delegated freely but also in government circles probed and interfered . No clear priorities where to continuously, regarding focus the fight nothing as too large or too small for his attention.” . No single minister for prosecuting war – 2005 Encyclopædia Britannica . Public unprepared for war . Focus primarily on military (not economy) . The fight was in one theatre

Lessons for Agile PM – master the problem(s) before designing the solution, and prepare for lots of change and volatility.

16 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill’s background and experience proves invaluable, and he brought it forward as PM.

. 1901- Member of Parliament . 1905 – Cabinet Member . 1910-1911 – Home Secretary . 1911-1915 – First Lord of the Admiralty . 1915 – Member of the War Council . 1916 – Commanded 6th Royal Scots Fusiliers . 1917 – Minister of Munitions . 1919-1921 – Secretary of state for war and air . 1924-1929 – Chancellor of the Exchequer . 1929-1939 – Out of office

Lessons for Agile PM – bring appropriate lessons learned forward from your career.

17 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill learnt many lessons from the First World War which guides his priorities in May 1940.

. The lack of central policy undermined resource coordination, and prolonged UKs response. . The lack of good intelligence at Gallipoli crucified his career. . The horror of a static war as he fought in the trenches. . As Minister of Munitions responsible for tank production – lack of cooperation - military and industry.

Lessons for Agile PM – leverage personal experience from other projects.

18 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill breaks down barriers between vertical organizations/ operations and reconstructs to work harmoniously.

. Disparate organizations (government, military, civilian) unique cultures, institutionalized, autonomous. . Armed forces evolved independently, no interaction, reluctant to cooperate, jockeyed for resources. . Incorporates military structures into cabinet, and forced to share some resources /expertise. . Transformation needed governance framework, and compliance. . Deal with adoption, sell nation, overcome barriers to lead to success.

. “We are indeed the victors of a feeble and weary departmentalism.”

Lessons for Agile PM – develop governance framework, create compliance, and lays out adoption, and communication plans.

19 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Structure of Chamberlain’s government before May 1940 followed traditional lines and hierarchical structure

Prime Minister Chamberlain

War Cabinet Intelligence The War Cabinet made Government (5) Services up of just ministers

Ministries (11) MI5

Admiralty MI6

War Office Industry Competing Air Ministry interests for same resources Committees

Civil Service

Local Academia Government Universities

20 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Structure of Churchill’s government after May 1940 focuses on one objective – Win the War.

Prime Minister War Cabinet goal to plan MoD Churchill unified strategy for waging Joint Plan. war

Joint Int.Com

War Cabinet Chiefs of Staff Intelligence The War Cabinet forced Government (5) (CoS) Military (3) Services all to collaborate

Ministries (11) Royal Navy MI5

MAP MI6

Committees Royal Air Force Local Defence Civil Service Volunteers force

Industry Fighter Command

Local Academia Lessons for Agile PM – pick motivated Government Universities individuals for your project team.

21 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill takes the following actions to encourage collaboration in project team

. Unifies War Cabinet, keeps adversaries to strengthen national confidence. . Creates new Ministries: – Defense, Aircraft Production, Food Production, and Economic Warfare for all aspects of war. . Becomes Minister of Defense forcing the CoS to consider all ideas put forward. . Builds close relationship with CoS through daily meetings. . Never overrules CoS, grand war strategy was run in rational and logical way.

Lessons for Agile PM – unify your project team, encourage collaboration, and regularly reflect on how to become more effective, tune/adjust behavior accordingly.

22 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill had to respond to the invasion threat and jump start fighter production immediately

. Transformation needed through governance framework, and compliance. . Churchill prioritized fighter production over everything, even production, the Air Ministries top priority. . Churchill incorporated military structures into Storey's Gate. To limit competition and forces sharing resources /expertise. . Creates the Ministry of Aircraft production (MAP) – Churchill believed the Air Admiralty Ministry had failed to meet its fighter production targets and Industry had to be replaced. Air Ministry Were competing for same resources

23 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill wrestles fighter production out of Air Ministry control and appoints Lord Beaverbrook as its minister May 14

. Churchill needed a strong leader that could turn around fighter production. . Beaverbrook a Canadian is a close long time confidant, friend, industrialist and newspaper baron. . Both served in the First World War cabinet of Lloyd George. . Churchill trusted him and gave a clear mandate to transform fighter production. . Beaverbrook “no nonsense man” could cut through red tape. . Beaverbrook an outsider took a very different approach. . Beaverbrook could stand up to Churchill.

24 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Major problems faced by Beaverbrook in May 1940 relate to fighter materials and production problems

. Fighter Production rates too low – Per month 290 vs 500 – Complexity of Spitfire (elliptical wings) – Shortage of labour – Materials and resources not readily available (aluminum) – Old manufacturing practices unchanged from WW1 – Reorganization of supply chain badly needed

Lessons for Agile PM – pick a “go-to” person, highly motivated individual, for the toughest project activities, and to take a radical approach when needed.

25 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook thought that the Air Ministry was not well suited to running aircraft production and stated…

. “The established practices of government departments grounded in red tape, routine, paper work or,” – “organization was the enemy of improvisation.” . “Air marshals” not appropriate by character or training. . He envisioned his ministry a fast-growing enterprise run by business people – Sorting out production problems and bottlenecks . They had business backgrounds and administrative approach, more spontaneous and informal.

26 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook new ministry and regime closely reflected his personality and the critical urgency of the tasks he had to face

. The top levels run by informal personal advisers from business and industry. . Mr. Hennessy of Ford Motor's at its head. . Beaverbrook’s goal was to: – accelerate production, – improve supply chain, – lock-step it to daily demands of RAF Fighter Command & keep operational. . Beaverbrook had to: – Plan raw materials and resources. – Collaborate with suppliers and manufacturers, across allies.

27 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The military draft took its toll and created an acute shortage of workers and labor problems

. The Ministry of Labor ended poaching of skilled workers by rival employers. . The Restriction on Engagement Order (June 1940) - compulsory for recruitment to occur only through employment exchanges. . Thousands of workers directed out of civil industries into fighter production.  Agreement with Beaverbrook until end of September 1940 all efforts concentrated on production of Hurricanes and Spitfires.  If profitable labor from other aircraft factories was transferred as well.

28 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Women were encouraged to enter the workforce in large numbers to fill the gaps created by military conscription

29 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook recognizes production rates of 200 per month are too low (by 43%) to sustain an air battle

. Beaverbrook was aware average life of a fighter in war was 2 months . Fighter force of 34 squadrons required industry to produce 350 new aircraft a month just to maintain front-line strength. . Battle losses replaced by manufacturing, reserves, or repair. . Even with major increases in production losses would out strip these.

30 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook introduced concepts of agility into fighter production to improve efficiency of manufacturing operation

. Standardization – It limited production to two proven types, Hurricane and Spitfire already in quantity production. – It immediately stepped up production. – It safeguarded already allocated materials & equipment. – It diverted from other types materials and equipment, and production capacity for immediate use. – It sourced aircraft parts from hundreds of large/small suppliers to ensure availability, avoid bottlenecks, and continuous flow. . Simplification – It reduced number of small disparate components by shipping completed subassemblies from suppliers. • (fuselage frames, undercarriages, instrument panels, engines)

31 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook also introduced agility concepts of modularity, & integration, to improve the efficiency of manufacturing

. Modularity – Supply chain expertise and best practices brought in from automobile manufacturing industry to speed up production. – Reusable components redeployed from bomber production and switched back with changing needs after the air battle. . Integration – Business processes and infrastructure components in the supply chain for fighter production were connected. – Production broken out from large factories to small dispersed facilities creating network of integrated manufacturing. – All fighter production facilities were top priority targets for the Luftwaffe. – In addition, new processes introduced that eliminated elliptical wing production problems.

32 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland To create public awareness to the problem of production, and buy in Beaverbrook oversaw the creation of a Spitfire fund

 Spitfire funds were individual, organization (Department stores) or town presented cost of airframe.  Spitfire set at £5,000 ($20,000)  real cost £12,000 ($48,000, or £200,000 today)  Aircraft allocated to bear name of donor on the fuselage.

33 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The idea of donation for a Spitfire fund caught on, and Beaverbrook organized the project on an industrial scale

 Many towns and organizations raised funds quickly joined by counterparts in the Dominions and Colonies, and other countries around the world.  Eventually, there were 1500 presentation Spitfires or 17% of total production.

34 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland A scheme of intense recycling was started nationwide again to promote public awareness and buy in

35 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland An aluminum appeal that promoted people to save old pots and pans had enormous appeal and was very successful

 People donated old pots, pans, kettles, railings, and metal appliances.  Posters printed and newspapers ran adverts for old scrap metal.  In reality, little used in aircraft construction.  It boosted people’s morale and they felt they were “doing their bit.”  Part of a concerted effort to get people more involved.

36 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland With raw materials scarce, Civilian Repair Organization (CRO) is put into operation to recover downed pilots and aircraft

 In January 1940, Lord Nuffield:  Created chain of repair shops and garages on RAF airfields, civil aerodromes.  Took over a number of large factory areas across UK.  Aircraft recovered on flat bed trucks, contributed by British Railways and London Transport, and taken to repair shops.  Recovered aircraft were either immediately repaired or cannibalized for spare parts.

37 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The headquarters for the CRO was at Merton College in Oxford the heart of British automobile production

. CRO activities of hundreds of small firms engaged on aircraft repair coordinated by automobile manufacturing organisation. . Engineers switched from automobile to aircraft manufacture, and with bodywork repairers repaired damaged aircraft – Most engineers had to learn from basics making transition from automobiles to aircraft. – They made one good aircraft out of two or three "write offs."

38 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Civilian Repair Unit No 1 established at the new Cowley South Works

. The No.50 Maintenance Unit recovered damaged aircraft from anywhere in UK . Either repair or recycling in the No 1 Metal and Produce Recovery Depot (MPRD). . New aircraft reclaimed from unrepairable wrecks by MPRD smelter.

39 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Even enemy aircraft were salvaged, stripped of valuable resources, and thrown into the smelter.

40 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Fighters with battle damage sometimes landed at Cowley for ‘while you wait’ repairs, then flew straight back into battle

. During pilots with damaged aircraft – "Fly In," – wait for the repair, – fly out, into the battle once again.  Often, when a repair could be done within 24 hours, the pilot would wait for it and fly it back to base same day.  known as the "Out-patients department."

41 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook brought industrial capacity for repairs to the same measures of dispersal & expansion as rest of aircraft industry

. Circle of repair contractors already engaged on production work was considerably enlarged. . Intermingling of repair work and new production driven by uncertainties and fluctuations of demand. . Ministry adopted 'hospital bed' policy. . Contractors expected to carry out repairs when needed. . Wasteful system offset by employing contractors engaged on other work into which repairs could be 'spliced'.

42 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Civilian Repair Organization results show that even though it was a challenge it eventually paid off

 The CRO undertook repairs at phenomenal rate.  60% of aircraft believed unrepairable at aircraft stations were rebuilt. . By the end of 1940 the CRO repaired 4,955 airframes 33% of total airframe output. . At height of battle, Fighter Command’s total wastage was more than 180% of its operational losses, compared to 140% for Luftwaffe’s Bf 109s. . CRO provided 40% of total output received by operational squadrons. . Over 150 fighters were put back into air during this crucial period

43 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook also reached out to industrialist in US and Canada for procurement and production

 Beaverbrook had good relationships with US industrialists and leveraged these to secure supplies of precious raw materials and key parts and sub assemblies.  Pratt and Whitney approached.  Henry Ford approached but refused to help.  September 1940 Packard redesigned the Merlin engine for US production.  Beaverbrook audaciously offered to pay for expanding the factory

44 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland MAP collected supply-chain metrics from factories, shop floors, distribution centers, transportation, and RAF depots.

. Input – Production data collected • data counting • statistical techniques: – Sampling inspections, defect estimates. – Information from supply-chain in various sources, and formats . Stored in data store – Mechanized filing system for rapid access.

45 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The following examples of metrics provided visibility into the supply chain

. Fighter production numbers and delivery to airfields . Raw materials/labour utilization (person hours in production) . Key fighter-component production numbers and inventory . CRO repair turnaround in timeframe . Fighter engine imports from Canada . Anti-aircraft production numbers

46 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland MAP expanded to embrace such diverse tasks like defending factories, aircraft storage, aircraft distribution

. Labour, construction, regional services. . Defense of factories with anti-aircraft batteries. . Aircraft were dispersed to reduce maximum holdings in each Aircraft Storage Unit from 400 to 200 aircraft. – Provided a strategic reserve and buffer between factory and front line to cope with surges in wastage and complete modification work prior to final delivery . Aircraft distribution to sector airfields.

47 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook was in close contact with Fighter Command leader Air Marshall Sir

. Beaverbrook and Dowding build very close demand/supply relationship – To get in-depth visibility to demand plans, – Dowding had daily fighter wastage (consumption) data to provide and the Daily Consumption Plan . Beaverbrook delivers directly to airfields (sector/) – Forecast accuracy improves – Establishes demand scenarios – Runs at zero inventory . The Air Ministry not consulted or even informed.  Bentley Priory directed CRO to crashed aircraft.

48 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook’s responsibility evolved over time to cover the whole supply chain

. Beaverbrook’s Ministry responsible for: – Managing supply-chain, procurement, manufacturing and inspection, distribution, defending factories. – Civilian Repair Organization workshops retrieved/ assessed/repaired planes, or cannibalized parts. – Encouraging innovation & improvement of production processes and sharing free flow of ideas. . Supported by: – Scientific Units: • Advised on new improvements on shop floor. – The Statistical Advisory Section.

49 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The supply chain evolved considerably in a few a months

Spring 1940

Raw Manufact Air materials uring Ministry

Summer 1940

Ministry of Complex web of Aircraft small & large suppliers Production

Civilian Repair Org.

Component Sub- Group manufacturer assemblies Stations Sector Crashed Stations Aircraft Raw Manufact Logistics materials uring Group Stations

Sector Component Sub- Stations manufacturer assemblies Complex web of plants, Group workshops, garages stations

50 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Air Marshall Hugh Dowding comes to Churchill’s attention in May

. Dowding insightful leader with a compassionate side. . Career man founded Fighter Command. . Went against conventional wisdom. . Long conflict with the Air Minstry. . Dowding was so concerned about losses in France that he wrote to the Under Secretary of State for Air. . He voiced his misgivings as to Fighter Commands ability to defend the U.K., conditional on supporting a defensive position in France

51 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Home defense badly weakened in an effort to support flagging air battle in France

. By May 13 the War Cabinet had agreed to send over an extra 32 Hurricanes and pilots to France, taken from different units across the U.K. . By the next day the situation was even worse, the Axis broke through the French defensive lines. . By nightfall the French were asking for 10 more fighter squadrons.

52 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Dowding tried to stop further fighters going over to France

. He thought the cause was lost in France, and that sending more fighters would only deplete an already low Home Defense. . Perturbed by mounting losses he wrote a letter to the Air Ministry (16th May 1940) that challenged Churchill over sending more fighter squadrons to France. . Churchill had personally promised these to the French Prime Minister Reynaud.

53 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Churchill took Dowding’s letter very seriously

. This created a dilemma for Churchill because of his promise to Reynaud. . In the end squadrons were sent but operated in France during the day and then returned at night to . . This action further strained the Allied relationship. . Showed Dowding’s incredible conviction to cause and willingness to stand up for it.

54 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com With an army stripped off its equipment the RAF was the last hope but it was well below target nominal fighter strength

. With 620 operational fighters the RAF was well below its set target (in 1939) of 1,200 fighters, thought to be the minimum to win an air battle over UK

55 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com With the threat so close Churchill recognized that invasion and conquest is only possible with complete victory in skies.

. The RAF would have to defend a very long coast line. . The enemy was only 21 miles away . Enemy aircraft in British air space in 10 minutes. Raids would have “to be sensed and counteracted”

56 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Fortunately Dowding’s preparation enabled him to go into an air battle against such bad odds

. RAF fighters were outnumbered by a ratio of 2:1 . RAF about 50% under strength with very little time to increase manufacturing output. . Dowding had to very carefully manage the remaining numbers of fighters – how he deployed them in forthcoming Battle.

57 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com In 1936 Dowding officially formed RAF Fighter Command

. Foresight in fighting the 'old guard' of senior military chiefs . If it wasn’t for him there would be: – Flying Biplanes – No radar – No Royal Observer Corp

58 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Dowding pushed for high-performance heavily armed monoplanes

. R.J. Mitchell's S6b float plane that had won the final three Schneider Trophy races in 1931. . In 1935 the Hurricane flew, few months later prototype spitfire came. . He wanted aircraft armed with – heavy wing-mounted cannons, and – cockpits fitted with armor plating – bullet-proof glass to protect his pilots. . Despite strong opposition he later got these once the need was proven in battle.

59 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Dowding looked to other means to assist his fighters in an air battle.

. In 1935 aware that the Air Ministry was very slow in scaling up its fighter production . He asked Watson-Watt to follow a line of research that led to the world's first operative radar network, called which became operational in 1937. . Radar testing proved the success of the technology in providing early warning of incoming aircraft detected at ranges of 80 miles.

60 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com In 1936 the Observer became part of the newly formed Fighter Command under Dowding

. Moved headquarters to RAF Bentley Priory. . This was a defense warning organization that provided a system for detecting, tracking and reporting aircraft over the U.K. . It was made up entirely from volunteers.

61 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Things did not move till after 1938

. In February 1937 Dowding submitted a report to the government requesting the need for 45 fully operational fighter squadrons, – 1,200 anti-aircraft guns, – 5,000 , – a functioning radar system, – radio control of aircraft – massive expansion of the Observer Corps. . British still striving for peaceful solution. Report was ignored. . The U.K. only began to seriously rearm after the Munich Crisis (1938) as the threat of war loomed.

62 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com By August 1939 Dowding had a fighter force of 34 squadrons when 52 squadrons were needed.

. Even with the substantial increase in expenditure the RAF lagged badly behind Axis in the number of fighters.

. Production of fighters, in the hands of the Air Ministry, was woefully low and late..

63 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Major problems faced by Dowding in May 1940 related to shortages

. Luftwaffe 1700 bombers and . Some wanted to remove 1100 fighters against 675 RAF Dowding, but Churchill told his fighters Air Minister, "I think he is one . Fighters below minimum of the very best men you have strength got ... he has my full confidence." – Mix of types – Pilot shortage – Shortage of men . Ability to preserve resources . Adjust tactics on the fly (agility)

64 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Bentley Prior (HQ) centered on event tracking and real-time decision making, and cascading responses to a vast hierarchical organization.

. Dowding created a geographically distributed hierarchy of stations (Group/Sector) and air fields all networked (5 yrs old) to the Headquarters at Bentley Priory. . Each sector had a main fighter air base, with an operations room and maintenance and repair facilities, and a number of other satellite fighter bases attached to it.

65 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Dowding has invested wisely so is well prepared and organized for the battle

. Has elements of sense & respond system: – Radar (short/long range) – Network of aircraft observers – Large telephone network – Command headquarters – Dispersed airfields – Fuel and ammunition delivery and storage dumps – intelligence to answer questions on invader . Refuses to engage until over English coastline . Switches bomber pilots over

Lessons for Agile PM – Leverage what is in place so you don’t reinvent the wheel.

66 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com The first line of the early warning system was Bletchley Park which passed top secret Ultra information to Bentley Prior.

 The Luftwaffe thought its encrypted communications were unbreakable.  This top grade intelligence would normally be of a highly strategic nature, the date and time of a raid, its size, the type of planes and possibly the target.  It would be passed to Storeys Gate in a very secure fashion, not to a few handpicked individuals through a Special Liaison Unit.  Dowding would then be given a synopsis to protect Ultra.

67 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com The second line of the early warning system was made up of 50 radar stations.

 2 types of complementary radar stations long and short range.  Long could pick up high-flying enemy aircraft at 30,000 feet and up to 150 miles away.  Short could pick up low-flying enemy aircraft.  Both operated on pattern recognition.  Radar provided with accuracy enemy position, direction, height, and estimated strength.  Information was aggregated by radar crews both in the low and high-level stations. Chain home  information was phoned directly to a radar radar North Sea direction operation’s command rooms (headquarters), finder  aggregated, analyzed, and organized sightings and detection information.

 Information passed by telephone onto the filter UNITED KINGDOM room at Bentley Priory for further processing.

Chain low FRANCE

68 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com The third line of the early warning system was made up by the Observer Corps.

 Civilian volunteers, with binoculars spotted incoming enemy aircraft.  They identified and assessed the enemy aircraft strength from 1,000 observation posts, based on the recognition of silhouettes and patterns.  The corps could only track aircraft detected by the radar stations.

69 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Together the radar stations and observer corps covered nearly ninety percent of United Kingdom’s (U.K.) coastline.

 Observer corps information was aggregated by the Observer Corps headquarters, which in turn was passed by telephone onto the filter room at Bentley Priory for further processing.

70 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Bentley Priory headquarters aggregated the information from the 3 lines of the early warning system

. The filter room at Bentley Priory headquarters was the communications hub that aggregated all this disparate information collected from the early warning system. . Occasionally there were other sources that passed new information to Bentley Priory namely, other operations centers and pilots. All this information was integrated in real time and passed directly into the operations room.

71 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com The Bentley Priory operations room had one of the most sophisticated real-time event models

. The purpose of the model was to map a visual representation of the skies above the U.K. . Run by the Women of the Auxiliary Air Force (WAAFs). . The map table used counters to show the location of friendly and enemy aircraft on a scaled map of the U.K. . WAAFs would receive information from the filter room through headsets. . As enemy planes took off in France, they were tracked and plotted onto this real-time model, reflecting every change.

72 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com 73 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Bentley Priory Map Table operated in near real time

. When positions of the same aircraft were given by two stations, greater reliance was placed on the accuracy. . As new reports were received, a colored arrow for each raid was changed. . The situation was updated, so information on the table was no older than 15 minutes. . The model provided a snap shot of real-time events, giving the decision- makers the information they needed to manage the movement of fighters. . They could position and group fighters at the required operational heights to be most effective.

74 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com The group operations centers had a second user-interface model, the Tote board.

. Officers viewed evolving raid and used Tote model: – To determine fighter response. . Model indicated status – contact with the enemy, and – those disengaging to refuel and rearm. – readiness of squadrons held in reserve: • Engaged in air battle • “cockpit readiness” in 2 minutes to engage in immediate battle • On ground ready in 5, 10, 30 minutes.

75 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com 76 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The Tote Models provided a sophisticated user tool to determine the fluctuating resource needs

. Named after the horse- racing tracks ‘‘Totalisator” board . Decision-makers tracked the incoming raid and then responded, by determining what resources were available and how they could be deployed. . The sector level operations centers made the final decision which went out to the individual squadrons and pilots.

77 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com 78 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland A well coordinated hierarchical adaptive system responded to raids. All fighter operation centers carried the same models.

. Information was disseminated through command structure, which divided the country into geographic groups (4). . Each group had a station and commanding air officer, and was divided into sectors (5 to 10) with stations (headquarters) and surrounding, smaller fighter stations/ airfields. . The individual group and sector operations centers had many of the characteristics of Bentley Priory, event-tracking and decision- making environment, and expected to have the most activity. . Bentley Priory at the center saw the overall picture of events – group levels saw only what pertained to them.

79 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com For Bentley Priory the aggregation and integration of disparate data input and then processing it into responses was complex.

. Input Filter – Radar positioning data. Room Bentley Prior – Observer corps estimates Operations and coordinates. Room

– Pilot observations. Group 10 Group 11 Group 12 Operations Operations Operations – Ultra decrypts. Rooms Rooms Rooms – Y station plots. – Whitehall information. Sector A Sector B Sector C Operations Operations Operations . Interpreted directly into Rooms Rooms Rooms real time models.

Receiving Huts / Receiving Huts / Pilot Anti-aircraft Observer Radar dispatch Radar dispatch for dispatch dispatch corp centre

Technicians Low level monitoring High level Pilots flying Searchlights, Observer corps, direction radar screen direction sorties anti-aircraft, visual spotters finding radar finding radar barage balloons monitoring the skies

80 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com The operations centers were also linked by telephone to following commands that responded to incoming raids.

. Output – Pilots. – Anti-aircraft, searchlights. – Barrage balloons. – CRO – Air sea rescue – Operational training units.

81 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com One advantage was the recovery of shot-down pilots during combat.

. British pilots were immediately or after short stay in hospital, returned to airfields to fly again. . German fighters were ordered to machine-gun British pilots as they parachuted out of their aircraft, or landed on the ground. . German pilots were captured, shipped across the Atlantic to POW camps in Canada.

82 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Dowding use of real-time event models, and institutionalized decision-making, was known as the “

. The Dowding System helped turn the course of Battle of Britain. With a sophisticated early warning system it was the first time information had been used on such a scale.

83 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Bentley Priory refined Service Level Objectives (SLOs) in a live environment and created a dependency chain for Service Level Agreements (SLAs). These were continuously refined.

. Primary goal was to Fighters meet raid with fighters or Service level objectives Sector 3 minute anti-aircraft: operations scramble centers time – Based on testing Group 1 minute perfected for intercepting command warning operations time raids. Fighters needed 15 centers

minutes to get into Bentley 1 minute position at 20,000 feet. Prior warning operations time s

s center e c o r

P 1 minute . Dependency chain for Observer warning SLOs for scrambling sightings time Radar fighters, continually 2 minute warning (CH warning 150 & CHlL overhauled and time improved. 30 miles) CH 10 minute Ultra warning signals time

6 hour decoding time

Time (minutes)

84 Churchill’s Sense and Respond System www.lessons-from- 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland history.com Churchill takes actions to improve efficiency of government

. Treasury role reduced, not bottleneck, allow financial restrictions to impact short /long term objectives. . He reduced number of committees which ministers were expected to attend. . He introduced system of briefs and action this day, label affixed to papers. . He insisted on written evidence of decisions on plan. . He initiated Economic Section of Offices of War Cabinet & Central Statistical Office. – Limitations of central economic control was aggravated by lack of economic information.

85 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill takes actions to show determination to cause and instill confidence in his people.

. Sent edict to all civil servants to avoid defeatist talk. . Encouraged reporting of any officers “found to be consciously exercising a disturbing influence.” . Stopped evacuation of Royal Family to Canada. . Stopped evacuation of children around the Empire. . Ordered disposition of great art works from National Gallery into caves. . Stopped bombed out theatres from being boarded up . Sent personal message to 3,000 people after demoralizing air raid.

Lessons for Agile PM – through communication plans ensure right messages are disseminated (propaganda).

86 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill’s Communication plan is conscious of need to keep public opinion behind war effort and home front morale high

. Personally addresses nation over radio with schedule of broadcasts. . Vision and realism are at core of speeches. . A series of renowned speeches which rallied country when all seemed lost. . For every minute of speech he would prepare for one hour. . Envisioned audience as “couple and their family gathered around their coal fire in the cottage-home.”

“we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender,…June 4th”

87 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill monitors the effectiveness of the communication plan and adjusted it as needed.

. Every day scoured all newspapers (10) for what population was reading, studying editorials. . MOI carried out regular and detailed investigations into opinions, morale and feelings of public. – Fieldworkers of Mass Observation, eavesdroppers and pub conversation listeners reported mood of nation, with town by town statistical estimates. – Early days of scientific polling (Gallup Poll).

88 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill is instrumental in changing public morale.

. Churchill visited areas and cities attacked, and bombed out. . At first tentative at meeting people surprised when well received. . Visits enormous boost to public morale. . Churchill personal statistical branch under Professor Lindemann, – (8 university statisticians all subject specialists) – Provided independent daily assessment of any aspect of war, from thousands of sources. – Applied “” to conduct war. Allowed quick decisions based on accurate data.

89 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill proactively took the offense with decisive action.

. In defensive state of mind created by Dunkirk country might suffer from – “the mental and moral prostration to the will and initiative of the enemy which had ruined the French.” . Recommended repeated small-scale inroads on the Continent “Attack when possible” – Organization of Commandos to raid occupied lands. – Middle East the order not to sit but to drive Axis out of East and North Africa.

90 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill was a workaholic working 2 full days in 24 hours.

. 0800 Wake up work from bed . 1000 First CoS meeting . 1200 War Cabinet meeting . 1700 Back to bed deep sleep . 1900 Wake up second shift . 2000 Dinner meeting . 2200 Reading briefs . 0000 All main newspapers

91 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill knew first hand the value of intelligence so he supported Ultra, code breaking at Bletchley Park.

. Lack of good intelligence major undoing at Gallipoli. . He bought time letting his foe believe he would negotiate. . He demanded to see materials in raw . He read telegrams both – service (CoS and field commanders) and – diplomatic, (Foreign Office to ambassadors). . He studied secret intelligence material. . He collected periodic returns, reports on production and technical developments.

92 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Major problems faced by Colonel Stewart Menzies (head of British Intelligence).

. Intelligence gathering within . Churchill in daily contact with occupied Europe Menzies . Bletchley Park code breaking . Churchill referred to Bletchley establishment: Park as "The goose that laid – Limited resources the golden eggs but never cackled.” – Operation still done by hand • Early successes in – Keeping source secret • Secure distribution – Enigma Codes changed daily, had to be cracked in window

Lessons for Agile PM – gain “intelligence” to act proactively and with agility.

93 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Bletchley Park provides the highest grades of intelligence available to carefully pre-selected communities, at the highest level of security available.

. The Bletchley Park structure: – ‘Y’ wireless intercept stations dotted around UK. – Code breakers (hut 6) at Bletchley. – Intelligence section (hut 3) at Bletchley. • Maintained extensive knowledge base. • Helped Churchill understand context of intelligence.

Lessons for Agile PM – convert information into intelligence, create knowledge repository.

94 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Menzies’s organization takes the following actions to enhance the intelligence situation.

. Expands intelligence gathering through occupied Europe. . Scales up & automates Bletchley Park’s manual operation for real-time intelligence. . Gives Bletchley code name Ultra and shrouds it in secrecy. . Sets up deception plans for Ultra. . Gets military to recognize and trust Ultra . Limits distribution of Ultra (31 recipients). – Churchill’s mandate “wild scattering of seed must be curbed.”

Lessons for Agile PM – ensure project takes maximum advantage of all intelligence available.

95 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Security of information flow to individuals is a major challenge because Ultra had to be kept secret.

. For Storey’ Gate very acute because of security implications. . SLUs created by RAF for secure distribution of information. . Cover story for Ultra at all times. . Churchill briefed daily

Lessons for Agile PM – ensure Identity Management & Security, management of users and access rights.

96 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Operational problems faced by Churchill in May 1940 related to efficiency.

. Needed a command center . “Winston is marvelous at – Protected against air raid picking up all the thread and giving them shape and form. – To House the war cabinet and Nothing too large or small for Chiefs of Staff his attention.” – Major communications hub • Eric Seal, Principal Private Secretary, 1940 . Cabinet to become an agency of swift decisions

Lessons for Agile PM – create environment to update the project manager and other team members on progress and to raise any issues .

97 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland 98 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The Cabinet War Room, the heart of Storey’s Gate, is the center of collaboration and real-time decision making at the most senior levels. Information is conveyed efficiently.

. Principal facility for conducting the war: – Daily meetings of prime minister, cabinet, and chiefs of staff (sometimes twice) to deal with all issues from military planning to food rationing.

Lessons for Agile PM – strive to create a collaborative environment to enhance decision making and adaptive planning.

99 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The Map Room supports the Cabinet War Room by tracking events, analysis, and real-time information. It cascaded actions to vast network of linked commands.

. Processes real time information for decision making. . Real time view of all war theatres.

Lessons for Agile PM – demonstrate visible progress, leverage real-time business intelligence for agile decision making.

100 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Storey’s Gate needed meaningful real time indicators that were varied

. Bentley Priory and Air Ministry: Source Lead Indicators (Supplied Daily) Bentley Prior (and Fighter losses by squadron – the availability of fighters Air Ministry) Number of sorties flown – stockpiles of fuel, Pilots lost versus new pilots trained and available

– supply-chain for fighter production Enemy losses by aircraft type from Whitehall, Fighter fuel and ammunition stocks available

– the enemy order of battle Civilian casualties indicators from Bletchley Park Bombing damage to factories, loss in production

– and other theatres of war. Whitehall (ministry of Fighter production numbers and delivery to airfields aircraft production) Raw materials/labour utilization (person hours in production)

Key fighter-component production numbers and inventory

CRO repair turnaround in timeframe

Fighter engine imports from Canada

Anti-aircraft production numbers

Bletchley Park Indicators of enemy order of battle

Enemy plans or intentions

101 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The maps displaying indicators had to be incisive and intuitive, represented different views to understand decision repercussions.

. Visitors could rapidly absorb and grasp these to understand decisions and their repercussions. . The maps showed the broad spectrum of varied indicators from supply chain to industrial production.

. The indicators had to be presented to the right person for decision-making in a timely manner. The figure shows another view, which included indicators on enemy production.

102 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Storey’s Gate Map Room indicators (Executive Dashboard) track changing events for rapid complex decisions-making.

. Models incisive, intuitive, . Fighter production to understand decision indicators and repercussions. supply-chain performance

60 50 40 30 . Order of battle. 20 10 0 . Production June July August September capability.

Lessons for Agile PM – create executive dashboard for providing continuous feedback for rapid decision making.

103 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill’s created a true sense and respond system, adaptable, that extends into the supply-chain.

Supply Chain CRO Information Whitehall information Figher demand Orders

Indicators Supply chain Reports Storey's Gate Orders Ultra Reports Pilots Radar Barrage Observers Bentley Balloons Prior Search Pilots Lights Anti Enigma Aircraft Orders Messages Bletchley Ultra Park Messages

Lessons for Agile PM – map all the critical information flows.

104 Churchill’s Adaptive Enterprise www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill augmented his own personal decision making by surrounding himself by professionals.

. Typists (3) – all thoughts and . “He delegated freely but also sayings recorded probed and interfered . Private Secretaries – 24 hours continuously, regarding rota system nothing as too large or too small for his attention.” . Daily contact with intelligence • 2005 Encyclopædia head Britannica . Personal SLU – daily Ultra brief greatly influenced strategy

Lessons for Agile PM – surround yourself with the best knowledge through people and solutions.

105 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland At the end of May, fighter production hits 325 as Beaverbrook’s changes began to bite

. Frantic preparation to get ready. . War in France still continues, and acts as a distraction.

Lessons for Agile PM – recognize significant events and react with agility, and accordingly.

106 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Continuing into June

. 4th - Ultra indicates massive invasion preparation. – Barges are made targets

. 6th – Indicators show shortfall in production – Household goods banned

. 17th – All purchasing in the U.S. – Under auspices of one body

. 30th Beaverbrook raises production from 292 to 446

107 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland July 1940 - Churchill recognizes potential of solution and skillfully buys time to complete it as air battle commences.

. Churchill convinces nation to fight . 1st - A “traveling” map room on. becomes operational for Churchill.

. 3rd - Destruction of the French Fleet at Oran

. 16th - Ultra reveals scale of . – 200 decoded messages a day received and synopsis presented to Bentley Priory (source not revealed)

Lessons for Agile PM – communicate vision, leverage information mobility, act decisively.

108 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland 109 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland July - With good visibility across supply chain, Beaverbrook closely aligned supply to RAF Fighter Command demand.

. In contact with Dowding every evening throughout the Battle-of-Britain. . End of July 1940 Beaverbrook raises production to 496 – Increase in production by 250%. . Beaverbrook introduced – concepts of JIT Manufacturing – built to demand – Delivered to depleted squadrons on a daily basis.

110 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland July 1940 – Internal battles continue.

. 31st - Beaverbrook learns of spare aircraft part storage. – spare aircraft parts inventory secretly run by Air Ministry discovered. – Following internal battle Beaverbrook ordered immediate seizure, and parts put into fighter production, as he mandated zero inventories. – Whole supply chain held minimum inventory to maximize fighter numbers

Lessons for Agile PM – recognize significant events and react with agility, and accordingly.

111 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland August 1940 (1 of 2) - Air battle intensifies but RAF holds its own. True potential of the solution becomes very apparent.

. Both sides sustain heavy fighter . 9th – Ultra repeatedly warns of losses. “Eagle day” massive attack – Tactics to avoid battle of attrition

. 16th – Accurate heavy fighter losses reported. – Tactics adjusted Spitfire vs. Hurricane

. 19th - Fighter production-rate shortfall. – CRO adopts third shift (24 hour operation)

Lessons for Agile PM – Focus on end goal but adjust tactics continuously to meet it.

112 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland August 1940 (2 of 2) - Air battle reaches turning point, RAF is 24 hours from defeat, but Churchill’s action helps.

. 22nd - Worsening situation in Middle East. – Churchill dispatches a convoy 50% of tanks. . 23rd – RAF is 24 hours away from defeat. . 24th - Churchill learns of attack on London. – Reprisal raid on Berlin. – Switch in Luftwaffe tactics onto London, in retaliation to Churchill. – Pressure off air fields. Lessons for Agile PM – Take a holistic view to enhance decision making, and to drive change.

113 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland End of August the CRO comes

. Production hit astounding 476 per month. . The CRO achieved repair turnaround times of less than 6 weeks, employing a combination of depot, fly-in, and onsite repair.

114 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland End of August - London is new target and Blitzed as Hitler is enraged

115 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland September 1940 - Last part of the battle almost results in defeat.

. 7th - Storey’s Gate issues “invasion imminent and probable in 12 hours.” – Churchill orders attack on ports crammed with 1,000 barges. . 15th - All out battle, 80% of entire fighter strength sent. . 16th - massive attack of 328 bombers and 769 fighters. – RAF destroy 187 planes to break the offensive – Luftwaffe pilots shocked at RAF’s fighter strength – Morale saps

Lessons for Agile PM – Trust the intelligence, once proven, be decisive make bold moves.

116 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland September 1940 - the RAF is overwhelmed but somehow holds.

. 16th - massive attack of 328 bombers and 769 fighters. – RAF destroy 187 planes to break the offensive – Luftwaffe pilots shocked at RAF’s fighter strength – Morale saps

Lessons for Agile PM – Trust the intelligence, once proven, be decisive make bold moves.

117 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland October 1940 - Churchill weathers the storm and turns the corner meeting all short and long term objectives.

. The battle ended in September although - very close run thing. . Beaverbrook’s supply chain was a significant factor in the story. . Dowding claimed Beaverbrook’s contribution as significant as his own. . RAF had prior warning of about 80% of air raids on London. . RAF intact to repel raids. . Supply-chain adequately supported RAF to sustain prolonged air battle. . Switch to night time attacks. . Churchill defiant, full of confidence – Implement longer term strategies. Lessons for Agile PM – Build projects around motivated individuals. Give them the environment & support they need, and trust them to get the job done.

118 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland The Supply-chain overtook Axis fighter production and adequately supported RAF to sustain a prolonged air battle

Month Planned Achieved Overall . By end of August, Available . In 1940, only 1870 Axis despite attacks on single-engine fighters aircraft facilities, fighter February 171 141 produced against production hit an March 203 177 planned output of 2412. April 231 256 astounding 476 per . The numbers of ME 109 May 261 325 month. built were: June 292 446 600 . By the end of 1940, – 164 - June, British factories July 329 496 644 produced 4,283 August 282 476 708 – 220 - July, fighters, compared to September 746 – 173 - August, Germany’s 3,000. October 734 – 218 - September; . Total of 775 against Britain's 1900.

119 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Beaverbrook’s Achievements – his astounding business acumen allowed the UK to quickly gear up aircraft production & engineering

. More aircraft built than pilots to fly them. . CRO played significant role and by end of 1940 repaired 4,955 airframes, 33% of total output, or 4196 aircraft between July and December . Beaverbrook’s role was Supply and Demand Monitoring. – “The work you do this week fortifies and strengthens the front of battle next week… The production you pour out of your factories this week will be hurled into desperate struggle next week.” Beaverbrook, summer of 1940. . Churchill declared: – "His personal force and genius made this Aitken's finest hour."

120 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Aftermath to the battle in summer of 1941, Beaverbrook transferred to the Ministry of Supply

. Beaverbrook’s approach to the supply chain needed in summer of 1940, but distorted supply system of war economy. . After battle replaced by quota system, – each ministry allocated quota of raw materials based on priority in war effort. . By winter of 1940–41 urgency was truly over. . MAP was brought into line again with the methods of the other ministries.

121 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Learning objectives for today’s world

. Churchill, insider, understood situation and problems: – Shut down non essential war production. – Prioritized fighter production, assigned a leader who could turn it around. – Re-organized, created new departments . Beaverbrook, outsider, took different approach: – Tenacious - always found a solution. – Open minded - Best practices cross industry. – Savvy -Installed communication strategy to get buy in. – Agile - Introduced basic concepts of agility. – Focused - Mandated zero inventories to maximize output. – Stuck to his principles - exceeding all expectations. . Dowding, insider, took different approach: – Focused - questioned everything, stood up for a cause. – Fought “red tape” for his (people) pilots. – Created Dowding system to make up shortfall of fighters. – Agile - Introduced basic concepts of agility.

122 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Churchill's greatest achievement was that he refused to capitulate when defeat was a strong possibility.

. Refuse any negotiations. Few in the Cabinet had this resolve. . Managed expectations with speeches to prepare for worst and get buy in to strategy. . Nothing was sacred and everything open game. . Willingness to sacrifice any national custom social convention, military etiquette or tradition for victory. . Parliament passed legislation placing all "persons, their services and their property at the disposal of the Crown" granting government most sweeping emergency powers in British history.

123 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland So how did Churchill do it? In 10 steps Churchill transformed the UK so it could “adapt to change”

Strategy: long Assessed options, and short term environment listened to Created Vision experts Set up Story: Myth, Never Governance surrender, Framework Bulldog Transformed: Deconstructed & Historic speeches, Reconstructed the Adoption plan Silos

Storey's Gate: Bletchley Park: Collaboration, Bombes, Security Executive SLUs Dashboard Bentley Priory: Whitehall: Supply- Sense & Respond Chain, CRO Resource Mgt

Lessons for Agile PM – with clear vision move quickly, iteratively and incrementally in agile approach.

124 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Questions

This presentation will be available on-line Mark is available to work with you and your organization (PMs and Executives), speak or run workshops

125 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland Interested in signed copies of books/audio books, available at SPECIAL DISCOUNT (business receipt available, checks, credit cards taken).

. Value proposition - 100’s of best practices, implemented save 1000’s of dollars . Articles in DM Review, Supply-Chain exec, $25 &Gantthead 30% off . If you are looking for clear directions for breathing new agility into your organization, and enjoy history, this is the perfect instruction manual. Also available at – Hugh Woodward, Editor, PMForum.org and http://www.mmpubs.com/boo PM World Today ks-LFH.html . This "Back to Our Future" book does a stellar job of mining the project intelligence Or call 1-866-721-1540 from Lessons Learned. It cites not just Also: common practice, not just best practice, but First Practice of methods underlying today's www.lessons-from- most successful projects. history.com – Stacy Goff, PMP, VP, American Society for Please contact Mark: the Advancement of Project Management mark.kozak- . This is one of the most unique approaches [email protected] to agile management I’ve ever encountered. Guaranteed to appeal to the history buff as well as to anyone looking to get a solid introduction to agile principles. $10 – Donna Fitzgerald, Knowth Consulting 50% off www.mmpubs.com/churchill/reviews.html

126 Churchill the Agile PM www.lessons-from-history.com 9/25/2009 © 2009 Mark Kozak-Holland