I N D I A R ES E A RC H

R ESU LTS PR E V I E W

8 April 2011

4QFY11 Results Preview Straining for growth STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED

8 APRIL 2011 4QFY11 RESULTS PREVIEW

Results Overview

Sectors „ Automobiles „ Cement „ Financials „ FMCG & Retail „ Industrials „ Information Technology „ Media „ Metals „ Oil & Gas „ Pharmaceuticals „ Real Estate „ Shipping & Logistics „ Sugar „ Utilities & Industrials „ Miscellaneous

Results Preview Summary

Valuation Guide ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 2

Results overview

Straining for growth

The financial year has drawn to an end and the numbers roll out begins and being the year end results, the earnings season is expected to be a bit longer than usual. The first three months of the calendar year have been akin to a roller coaster rise for the stock markets and the impending earnings are thus expected to have a huge bearing on its ensuing course. Expectations from the companies under our coverage (ex-financials) convey a YoY growth of 24% and a QoQ growth of 16%. The traction is one of the highest in recent times. If one excludes the metals sector, the growth is a bit better at 25% YoY and 17% QoQ, respectively, leading us to believe that the metals sector still ails from a degree of uncertainty and unpredictability. However, if instead of metals, one excludes the Oil & Gas sector, then these figures are 20% YoY and 14% on a QoQ basis, leading us to believe that oil and gas sector despite all the associated problems, is relatively better off than what it was a year ago.

(INRm) 3QFY11 3QFY10 Chg YoY (%) Indices Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Sensex 2,575,903 808,730 380,913 2,206,929 674,097 303,047 16.7 20.0 25.7 Nifty 3,435,022 994,533 459,403 2,928,713 843,040 381,363 17.3 18.0 20.5 BSE 100 5,590,574 1,394,778 594,313 4,686,644 1,145,338 481,343 19.3 21.8 23.5 BSE 200 6,781,605 1,834,588 728,971 5,718,659 1,517,681 602,275 18.6 20.9 21.0 BSE 500 8,213,861 2,130,854 832,048 6,921,438 1,766,744 695,603 18.7 20.6 19.6 BSE Midcap 1,960,385 512,053 144,795 1,656,347 421,227 122,460 18.4 21.6 18.2 BSE Smallcap 995,806 139,828 53,899 831,248 126,867 52,452 19.8 10.2 2.8

Source: Antique, AceEquity

(INRm) 3QFY11 3QFY10 Chg YoY (%) Sectoral Indices Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit BSE Auto 428,091 53,839 33,077 333,928 53,386 30,707 28.2 0.8 7.7 BSE Capital Goods 378,104 52,939 33,212 303,920 45,385 27,195 24.4 16.6 22.1 BSE Consumer Durables136,442 11,406 5,144 113,787 9,060 3,910 19.9 25.9 31.5 BSE FMCG 176,040 38,409 27,530 147,989 34,240 24,150 19.0 12.2 14.0 BSE Healthcare 117,125 27,565 23,822 105,406 31,249 23,810 11.1 (11.8) 0.0 BSE IT 258,676 73,894 62,173 216,079 65,477 53,992 19.7 12.9 15.2 BSE Metal 494,086 130,659 86,599 421,473 116,318 74,103 17.2 12.3 16.9 BSE Oil 2,387,604 308,499 162,319 2,072,680 217,786 97,929 15.2 41.7 65.8 Power 440,155 113,722 61,633 373,730 107,333 62,566 17.8 6.0 (1.5) BSE Realty 29,344 15,132 9,917 32,164 13,584 10,055 (8.8) 11.4 (1.4)

Source: Antique, AceEquity

3QFY11 3QFY10 Chg YoY (%) Net Interest Provisions & Net Profit Net Interest Provisions & Net Profit Net Interest Provisions & Net Profit Income Contingencies Income Contingencies Income Contingencies BSE Bankex 299,977 62,868 118,714 218,562 45,599 96,444 37.3 37.9 23.1

Source: Antique, AceEquity ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 3

Results overview

The EBIDTA of companies under our coverage (ex financials) is expected to post a YoY and a QoQ growth of 12% and 15%, respectively. This clearly conveys that cost pressures in pivotal sectors are now beginning to nibble away at the operational metrics of Inc. Excluding Oil & Gas, the growth is estimated to be markedly better at 17% (YoY)and 19% (QoQ) and underscores the fact that the oil and gas sector continues to drag the performance of corporate sector. The EBIDTA exhibits a much stronger improvement of 23% YoY and 15% QoQ, if one were to exclude two sectors i.e Metals and Oil & Gas. Thus buoyant commodity prices are now beginning to weight heavy on many sectors. On the net profits front, results of companies under our coverage (ex financials) are expected to be flat on a YoY basis and register a 13% growth QoQ. Once again, if one were to exclude the Oil & Gas and Metals sector, the growth is 21% and 15% on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively. The lower degree of growth in net profits vis a vis EBIDTA can also be attributed to increase in capital costs.

(INRm) 3QFY11 2QFY11 Chg QoQ (%) Indices Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Sensex 2,575,903 808,730 380,913 2,439,370 744,190 350,533 5.6 8.7 8.7 Nifty 3,435,022 994,533 459,403 3,254,310 933,056 439,415 5.6 6.6 4.5 BSE 100 5,590,574 1,394,778 594,313 5,243,372 1,366,498 622,888 6.6 2.1 (4.6) BSE 200 6,781,605 1,834,588 728,971 6,358,765 1,776,158 874,951 6.6 3.3 (16.7) BSE 500 8,213,861 2,130,854 832,048 7,735,098 2,052,581 979,744 6.2 3.8 (15.1) BSE Midcap 1,960,385 512,053 144,795 1,852,032 462,620 137,640 5.9 10.7 5.2 BSE Smallcap 995,806 139,828 53,899 978,278 131,025 54,886 1.8 6.7 (1.8)

Source: Antique, AceEquity

(INRm) 3QFY11 2QFY11 Chg QoQ (%) Sectoral Indices Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit Net Sales PBIDT Net Profit BSE Auto 428,091 53,839 33,077 415,834 56,344 36,850 2.9 (4.4) (10.2) BSE Capital Goods 378,104 52,939 33,212 335,740 43,257 27,341 12.6 22.4 21.5 BSE Consumer Durables136,442 11,406 5,144 128,956 10,976 5,245 5.8 3.9 (1.9) BSE FMCG 176,040 38,409 27,530 159,463 36,009 25,210 10.4 6.7 9.2 BSE Healthcare 117,125 27,565 23,822 115,214 27,762 148,790 1.7 (0.7) (84.0) BSE IT 258,676 73,894 62,173 253,831 70,138 57,054 1.9 5.4 9.0 BSE Metal 494,086 130,659 86,599 451,740 113,941 82,292 9.4 14.7 5.2 BSE Oil 2,387,604 308,499 162,319 2,246,700 356,806 217,322 6.3 (13.5) (25.3) Power 440,155 113,722 61,633 430,550 112,615 63,738 2.2 1.0 (3.3) BSE Realty 29,344 15,132 9,917 24,962 13,126 9,661 17.6 15.3 2.6

Source: Antique, AceEquity

3QFY11 2QFY11 Chg QoQ (%) Net Interest Provisions & Net Profit Net Interest Provisions & Net Profit Net Interest Provisions & Net Profit Income Contingencies Income Contingencies Income Contingencies BSE Bankex 299,977 62,868 118,714 275837.9 68129.6 104804.3 8.8 (7.7) 13.3

Source: Antique, AceEquity ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 4

Expectations for 4QFY11 performance

Sales - change YoY (%) Sales - change QoQ (%) Sugar Sugar Shipping and Logistics Pharma Real Estate Real Estate Industrials & Infrastructure Media Metals FMCG & Retail Utilities Financials Pharma Information Technology FMCG & Retail Shipping and Logistics Automobiles Metals Information Technology Automobiles Oil & Gas Cement Financials Oil & Gas Cement Utilities Media Industrials & Infrastructure

(10)- 1020304050 (40) (20) - 20 40 60

Source: Antique

EBITDA - change YoY (%) EBITDA - change QoQ (%) Shipping and Logistics Media Sugar FMCG & Retail Metals Financials Oil & Gas Real Estate Cement Pharma Financials Shipping and Logistics FMCG & Retail Utilities Utilities Oil & Gas Pharma Information Technology Automobiles Automobiles Media Sugar Real Estate Metals Information Technology Cement Industrials & Infrastructure Industrials & Infrastructure

(10)- 10203040 (20) - 20 40 60 80 100 120

Source: Antique

Net profits - change YoY (%) Net profits - change QoQ (%) Sugar Media Shipping and Logistics FMCG & Retail Oil & Gas Real Estate Metals Oil & Gas Cement Information Technology Utilities Utilities Pharma Financials Information Technology Shipping and Logistics Media Automobiles FMCG & Retail Pharma Real Estate Cement Financials Sugar Automobiles Metals Industrials & Infrastructure Industrials & Infrastructure

(60) (40) (20) - 20 40 60 (50) - 50 100 150

Source: Antique Note: In case of financials net interest income, pre-provision profits and net income are considered instead of net sales, EBIDTA and net profit. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 5

Sector EBITDA Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 Automobiles 13.1 13.2 13.2 8.6 7.4 8.5 Cement 21.8 28.3 18.1 10.4 14.7 10.0 FMCG & Retail 16.5 17.4 17.9 11.1 11.5 12.3 Industrials & Infrastructure 16.9 14.6 12.7 11.3 8.8 7.4 IT 29.4 28.5 28.0 21.9 23.3 22.1 Media 28.5 32.8 32.3 11.2 13.6 14.8 Metals 22.6 25.3 19.4 12.7 17.4 10.6 Oil & Gas 10.1 12.4 11.2 4.9 7.6 6.0 Pharma 23.6 23.1 21.1 17.5 18.5 13.6 Real Estate 44.4 39.2 43.0 23.4 20.8 23.2 Shipping and Logistics 36.6 39.6 36.6 12.1 19.7 11.5 Sugar 19.0 17.1 13.1 5.5 9.3 3.4 Utilities 25.6 25.8 28.6 13.1 14.4 15.0 Total 17.9 19.7 18.5 10.1 11.8 8.9 Total Ex Metals & O&G 19.7 19.5 19.4 12.0 11.9 11.9 Total Ex O&G 20.4 21.0 19.4 12.2 13.3 11.6

Source: Antique

On the performance front, the EBIDTA margin of the companies under our coverage (ex-financials) is expected to be around 17.9%, exhibiting a dip of 180bps and 70 bps on a YoY and QoQ basis respectively. However, if one excludes metals and Oil and Gas, the EBIDTA margins are conveying resilience as at 19.5 for the quarter, it is flat on both a YoY and QoQ basis. However, if one were to exclude only the Oil and Gas sector, then at 20.3%, there an increase of 90 bps on a QoQ basis, but a dip of 60 bps on a YoY basis. This leads us to believe that the most of the sectors other than metal and Oil and gas have been able to tackle the vagaries of raw material and other costing quite effectively and we could in for a stable round of performance from here on. It is pertinent to note that the EBIDTA margin has been maintained on back on a 22% increase in net sales of the companies under our coverage (ex-financial, ex-Oil and gas and ex-metals) on a YoY basis and 14% on a QoQ basis. It thus could be heralding the benefits of economies of scale as well as maturity of business models going forward.

Financials under our coverage are expected to post a revenue growth of 29% on a YoY basis and 3% on a QoQ basis. However, on the net profit front, growth is expected to be much sharper at 33% on a YoY basis and 8% on a QoQ basis. The ruggedness of this sector can be construed as a barometer of the economic health and it is not surprising that the sector accounts for a large part of the market capitalisation at present.

The largest increases in revenues on a QoQ basis is expected to be reported by Media, Cement and Financials. On a YoY basis the league table gets altered with Industrial& Infra, Oil & Gas and Utilities topping the list. The laggards would be Sugar, Shipping & Logistics and Real Estate on the YoY basis and Sugar, Pharma and real estate on a QoQ basis.

On the EBIDTA front, the leaders would be Industrial& Infra, IT and Real Estate on a YoY basis while on a QoQ basis the list would consist of Industrials & Infra, Cement and Metals. Thus the Industrial & Infra sectors seems to be slowly getting its groove back. The laggards on this front on a YoY basis are Shipping and logistics, Sugar and metal while on a QoQ basis it is Media, FMCG & retail and Financials.

Summing up, we can say that save for sectors like Metals, Sugar and Real estate, the revenues and EBIDTA growth trend is largely intact. The traction is expected to slow down a bit marginally in the coming quarters. However, Oil & gas sector continues to bog the overall metrics on account of its humongous scale and size and there is no respite in sight. Metals, another laggard could be set for a turn around in the coming quarters and that along with the across the board buoyancy should inject a dose of optimism in the markets, but in a slow and steady manner. Till then, we are of the opinion that the environment of staidness and tempered optimism will prevail in the market. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 6

Ashish Nigam Automobiles +91 22 4031 3443 [email protected] Same old story - Strong volumes… Pressure on margins Kunal Jhaveri +91 22 4031 3411 [email protected]

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ 36,570 29,390 22,272 24 64 4,241 3,784 1,660 12 155 2,456 2,227 434 10 466 42,247 33,995 41,771 24 1 8,345 7,771 8,493 7 (2) 6,561 5,287 6,671 24 (2) Bosch 18,785 15,804 17,556 19 7 3,351 2,896 1,810 16 85 2,418 2,026 2,105 19 15 Concor 10,488 9,505 9,711 10 8 2,848 2,201 2,807 29 1 2,339 1,727 2,285 35 2 Escorts 9,080 6,756 8,377 34 8 547 661 438 (17) 25 305 415 255 (27) 19 11,331 10,280 10,491 10 8 1,869 2,152 1,591 (13) 17 1,415 1,345 1,244 5 14 Hero Honda 52,910 40,926 51,182 29 3 5,384 6,820 5,331 (21) 1 4,913 5,988 4,290 (18) 15 M&M 67,038 53,046 61,211 26 10 9,493 8,492 9,238 12 3 6,647 5,739 6,172 16 8 97,798 82,808 93,261 18 5 7,431 9,673 7,335 (23) 1 5,754 6,566 5,652 (12) 2 364,956 289,778 316,852 26 15 49,798 31,354 44,886 59 11 28,093 10,786 24,571 160 14 Total 711,202 572,289 632,685 24 12 93,306 75,805 83,588 23 12 60,901 42,104 53,678 45 13

Sector overview

The automobile sector witnessed a robust 4Q despite price hikes taken by most OEMs. Breaking down the quarter one month at a time - January dispatches were strong on account of low dealer inventory; February saw massive pre-buying before expectations of an excise duty roll-back in the budget; March dispatches, although slow at first, picked up momentum driven by strong corporate buying (to avail depreciation benefits), some pre-buying before the price hikes in April, dealer stocking to meet all the deliveries lined up for Gudi Padwa and higher discounts towards the year end - a typical March trait to close the fiscal year with a bang.

On the margin front, the surge in commodity costs will be dampener. Steel, rubber, aluminum and lead prices have all been relentless during the quarter. Most OEMs have taken price increases during the quarter (to the tune of 0.5-2%) which will help offset these cost pressures partially. The silver lining is that retail sales have not been impacted by these price hikes.

In case of MHCVs, dispatches have been strong post the emission norm change, which is an encouraging testimony that BS3 trucks have been well accepted in the market. The QoQ jump in volumes also bodes positively for operating leverage of CV companies.

The ancillaries continue to benefit from the overall buoyancy in the industry, oblivious to the competitive intensity in most segments. We prefer the market leaders in this space (Exide and Bosch) on account of the strong pricing power that they enjoy. There is also scope for margin expansion for these companies as penetration into the lucrative after-markets increases. We expect Exide margins to improve sequentially as it benefits from price increases undertaken in February along with a marginal improvement in market mix.

4QFY11 - YoY volume growth (%) 4QFY11 - QoQ volume growth (%)

35% 70% 30% 61% 30% 60% 23% 25% 21% 21% 50% 20% 20% 17% 40% 15% 27% 15% 13% 30% 25% 10% 20% 8% 6% 5% 10% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% Eicher Hero M&M Escorts Maruti Bajaj Ashok Tata Ashok Tata Eicher M&M Escorts Maruti Hero Bajaj Honda Suzuki Auto Leyland Motor s Leyland Motor s Suzuki Honda Auto

Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 7

EUR/GBP movement - sequentially favourable USD/GBP movement - sequentially unfavourable for Tata Motors for Tata Motors 0.96 0.72 Average Average Average USD/GBP 0.92 EUR/GBP EUR/GBP 0.69 Average Average 0.862 0.854 0.641 USD/GBP USD/GBP 0.88 0.66 0.633 0.623

0.84 Average 0.63 EUR/GBP 0.80 0.60 0.887

0.76 0.57

4QFY10 1QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 0.72 2QFY11 0.54 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11

Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique

YEN/INR movement - sequentially unfavourable for Maruti Lead prices 0.60 3500 Average Average 3250 Average Average Pr ic e Pr ic e 0.56 YEN/INR 3000 Pr ic e $2387/t $2602/t 0.519 2750 $2211/t 0.52 Average Average 2500 YEN/INR YEN/INR 2250 0.48 0.544 0.550 2000

0.44 1750 1500 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 0.40 1250 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11

Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique

CRC steel prices Rubber prices

750 260 Average Average 700 240 Pr ic e Average Pr ic e INR Pr ic e EUR 597/t 650 220 194/Kg EUR 523/t Average 200 600 Average Pr ic e Pr ic e 550 180 INR Average EUR 685/t 141/Kg Pr ic e 500 160 INR 450 140 225/Kg 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 400 120 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11 01-Jan-10 01-Apr-10 01-Jul-10 01-Oct-10 01-Jan-11 01-Apr-11

Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: NCDEX, Antique ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 8

Nirav Shah Cement +91 22 4031 3473 [email protected] Price recovery to boost performance

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ ACC 25,424 22,762 22,277 12 14 5,301 6,552 3,403 19 56 2,831 3,929 2,489 (28) 14 Ambuja Cement 22,656 19,902 17,885 14 27 5,069 6,227 3,140 (19) 61 2,890 4,421 2,510 (35) 15 9,030 9,440 7,804 (4) 16 2,138 3,255 1,583 34 35 478 (165) 334 (390) 43 UltraTech Cement 40,865 19,225 37,409 113 9 8,819 4,158 7,334 (112) 20 3,965 2,285 3,190 74 24 Total 97,975 71,330 85,374 37 15 21,326 20,192 15,461 6 38 10,164 10,470 8,523 3 19

UltraTech Cement

„ For 4QFY11, we expect UltraTech to post revenues of INR40.9bn. These numbers are post the merger of Samruddhi with UltraTech and hence not comparable on a YoY basis. We expect domestic blended despatches of 10.4mmt, up by 3.3% YoY on a comparable basis.

„ Margins are expected to expand by 300bps QoQ to 22.7% as a result of recovery in cement prices. We expect EBIDTA/mt of INR845/mt resulting in operating profits of INR8.8bn.

„ We estimate net profits of INR3.97bn resulting in an EPS of INR14.5.

ACC

„ ACC is expected to post revenues of INR25.4bn, an increase of 12% YoY in 1QCY11. This will be largely led by 12% rise in cement volumes to 6.2mmt and a 2% decline in realisations.

„ On the back of strong recovery in cement prices on a QoQ basis, EBIDTA/mt is expected to increase to INR851 as against INR610 in 4QCY10. However, on a YoY basis, the same will be lower compared to INR1,179 in 1QCY10. Accordingly, operating profits should stand at INR5.3bn in 1QCY11.

„ We expect net profits to decline by 26% YoY and increase by 16% QoQ to INR2.9bn.

Ambuja Cement

„ ACL's revenues in 1QCY11 are expected to increase by 14% YoY to INR22.7bn. This will be largely led by 6% rise in cement volumes to 5.7mmt and 7.5% improvement in realisations.

„ Margins are expected to contract by 890bps to 22.4% as a result of higher operational costs. We expect EBIDTA/mt to fall to INR895/mt resulting in operating profits of INR5.1bn.

„ Capital charges should surge by 51% to INR1.3bn on account of commissioning of clinker and grinding capacities in 1HCY10.

„ We expect net profits to decline by 35% to INR2.9bn.

Shree Cement

„ SCL's revenues are expected to decline by 4% to INR9bn on account of lower cement sales and power realisations. On the volumes front, we expect the same to be lower by 5% to 2.6m mt. We expect the company to sell ~100m units of power in 4QFY11 against 77.8m units.

„ We expect margins to contract by 1,080bps to 23.7% on account of lower profitability of the cement as well as power division.

„ We expect the company to post net profits of INR478m as against a loss of INR165m in 4QFY10 (before extra-ordinary). ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 9

Alok Kapadia Financials +91 22 4031 3442 [email protected] Another quarter of strong core operating performance Sunesh Khanna +91 22 4031 3437 [email protected] Reetu Gandhi +91 22 4031 3415 [email protected]

Company Net Interest Income Chg (%) Pre Provisioning Profits Chg (%) Net Income Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ 17,927 14,601 17,331 23 3 17,687 13,838 16,585 28 7 9,419 7,649 8,914 23 6 Bajaj Auto Finance 2,800 1,658 2,562 69 9 1,650 1,240 1,600 33 3 791 252 764 214 3 23,127 17,450 22,923 33 1 17,271 16,288 18,512 6 (7) 10,436 9,063 10,689 15 (2) HDFC 11,379 11,282 10,277 1 11 12,579 12,819 12,279 (2) 2 9,513 9,264 8,909 3 7 HDFC Bank 28,048 23,514 27,767 19 1 20,599 16,944 20,727 22 (1) 10,737 8,366 10,878 28 (1) ICICI Bank 24,714 20,349 23,117 21 7 26,599 23,989 23,426 11 14 15,709 10,056 14,370 56 9 LIC Housing Fin 3,080 2,980 3,522 3 (13) 2,924 2,857 4,891 2 (40) 2,205 2,136 2,135 3 3 32,285 24,980 32,033 29 1 23,563 23,325 23,499 1 0 12,980 11,350 10,898 14 19 State 94,498 67,215 90,498 41 4 61,757 51,939 67,645 19 (9) 31,391 18,670 28,281 68 11 Shriram Transport Fin 8,952 6,483 8,367 38 7 6,547 5,442 6,338 20 3 3,430 2,644 3,000 30 14 16,199 13,961 16,158 16 0 11,799 11,475 12,611 3 (6) 6,873 5,935 5,796 16 19 3,328 2,442 3,232 36 3 3,204 2,576 3,113 24 3 1,976 1,400 1,911 41 3 Total 266,339 206,912 257,785 29 3 206,180 182,730 211,225 13 (2) 115,459 86,784 106,544 33 8

Banking sector

Robust headline earnings coupled with strong bottom line We expect banks and financials under our coverage universe to report strong earnings growth (28% YoY and 3% QoQ) driven by strong traction in credit growth (YTD system growth at 24.3% against RBI guidance of 20% FY11e), robust margins and low base effect in 4Q10 (especially for PSU banks.) In our coverage universe, we expect public sector banks to report a stronger earnings growth of 40% YoY as against 38% YoY for Private Banks, supported by the lower base effect in 4QFY10 for . However earnings progression for PSU banks excluding SBI is likely to remain at 26% YoY.

Strong traction in credit growth with deposit growth picking up; CD ratio easing albeit at slower pace Headline systemic credit growth continues to remain robust with YTD growth at 24.3% YoY. On the deposits front, after a lackluster 9MFY11, systemic deposit growth has finally picked up (with YTD growth at 16.7%) as the banks have aggressively hiked deposit rates post December. As a result, deposit growth has outpaced (~7.1%) credit growth (5.9%) post December. Further CD ratio for the banks stands at 75% and incremental CD ratio for the banks has eased from a high of 110% to 97%.

Margins to decline on sequential basis We believe NIMs for banks especially those with low CASA ratio and weak ALMs are likely to witness compression starting from 4Q onwards as deposit rates has spiked upwards by 150-300 across various maturities. Further, NIM moderation should be marginal in Q4FY11 as banks continue to benefit from lending rate hikes and faster asset re-pricing.Secondly continued liquidity tightness coupled with high volatility in wholesale borrowing costs is likely to intensify pressure on margins from 1QFY12 onwards. However, in period of high interest rate environment, trends in CASA market share remain a key monitorable on deposit front.

Other income growth to remain muted Other income growth, excluding trading profits is likely to remain muted banks (Private at 15 % YoY and PSU’s at 5% YoY) due to lack of treasury profits as the banks had booked trading profits last year. During the quarter, G-sec yields moved across the yield curve, more so at the shorter end (25bps) as against longer end (6bps). Since a large part of bank's investment book is in the HTM category - it is de-risked. Hence we do not expect banks to report any significant MTM losses. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 10

Provisions towards pension liability for retired employees may throw some negative surprise Public sector banks have already started amortising for second pension liability over a period of 5years starting from 3QFY11. However recent guidelines issued by RBI during the quarter, requires bank's to completely provide for amount related to separated/ retired employees. Hence banks are required to provide full provisions towards retired employees in FY11 itself, while other liabilities (relating to second pension option and gratuity) for existing employees can be amortised over a period of five years. Therefore these upfront provisions could throw up some negative surprise in 4QFY11.

Asset quality to remain stable Asset quality for most of the banks is likely to remain stable. We believe that, private sector banks are well placed in terms of asset quality and are likely to report lower loan provisioning since overall NPL formation (more so in retail) has shown signs of stability over the past few quarters, whereas PSU banks could be a little patchy. Higher slippages on account of migration to system-based recognition of NPLs remain a key risk on asset quality.

We also believe that cash recoveries and up gradation are likely to pick up significantly from hereon, since slippages for the banks has peaked albeit at a higher level in the previous quarters (write-offs were aggressive over FY09 and FY10).Further, banks like Union Bank and SBI could positively surprise during the quarter with a fall in slippages, higher up gradation and recoveries.

Non banking financial companies

We expect NBFCs to report 20-25% earnings growth primarily driven by higher business volumes.

We expect NIMs to shrink in the current scenario given the fact that wholesale rates have rallied in last quarter as the incremental borrowing cost at the shorter end of the yield curve has gone up by 300-400bps on back of extremely tight liquidity. There has also been delay in passing higher interest rates to customers, although most NBFCs have raised their lending rates, but the transmission will comes will a lag.

We believe that strong demand of securitized assets by banks in the last quarter will support margins for 2HFY11 for companies like Shriram Transport Finance and Mahindra Finance. We expect the liquidity position to ease in April as it is generally a lean month we expect guidance on NIMs to be cautious as the impact of higher rates is yet to be reflected in the reported margins.

Credit growth Deposit growth 40,000 26 52,000 18

50,000 38,000 24 17 48,000 36,000 22 46,000 16 34,000 20 44,000 15 32,000 18 42,000

30,000 16 40,000 14 Apr-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11

Total Bank Credit (INR bn) - LHS Credit growth (YOY%) - RHS Total Deposit (INR bn) - LHS Deposit growth (YOY%) - RHS

Source: RBI, Antique ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 11

Abhijeet Kundu FMCG & Retail +91 22 4031 3430 [email protected] Input inflation to curb growth

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ 21,956 18,768 20,996 17 5 3,408 3,109 3,448 10 (1) 2,106 1,898 2,202 11 (4) 11,611 9,303 10,800 25 8 661 (116) 482 (671) 37 482 129 373 274 29 Colgate Palmolive 5,876 5,166 5,582 14 5 1,524 1,247 746 22 104 1,236 1,034 662 20 87 India 10,395 8,488 10,800 22 (4) 1,891 1,620 2,095 17 (10) 1,486 1,331 1,541 12 (4) Godrej Consumer 10,196 5,092 9,804 100 4 1,788 1,075 1,678 66 7 1,296 918 1,188 41 9 49,200 43,158 50,270 14 (2) 5,027 5,310 6,243 (5) (19) 4,601 4,225 5,870 9 (22) ITC 59,619 50,538 54,535 18 9 17,933 15,401 19,690 16 (9) 12,283 10,282 13,891 19 (12) Jyothy Laboratories 2,233 1,898 1,484 18 50 340 305 167 12 103 287 171 169 68 70 Kansai Nerolac 5,451 4,238 5,601 29 (3) 618 585 685 6 (10) 351 331 416 6 (16) 7,447 6,023 8,177 24 (9) 839 861 1,093 (2) (23) 590 594 776 (1) (24) Nestle India 18,263 14,798 16,710 23 9 3,634 3,040 3,298 20 10 2,349 1,971 2,217 19 6 Pantaloon Retail 28,799 20,576 27,586 40 4 2,477 2,156 2,383 15 4 618 559 472 11 31 Titan Industries 16,624 13,112 19,546 27 (15) 1,557 1,165 1,950 34 (20) 1,091 778 1,408 40 (22) United Breweries 7,943 5,734 6,096 39 30 868 636 659 37 32 484 344 298 41 62 15,804 12,521 15,920 26 (1) 2,325 1,702 2,730 37 (15) 800 714 1,020 12 (22) Total 271,418 219,412 263,907 24 3 44,891 38,096 47,348 18 (5) 30,059 25,278 32,503 19 (8)

Input cost inflation to take toll on profits

The steep inflation in input cost is expected to have a broad-based impact on the profitability of consumer categories like food, home and personal care. Incremental pressure would be felt in the fabric care category with rising prices of key raw materials like LAB and Soda Ash. Average prices of LAB and Soda ash during 4QFY11 have soared by 13% YoY and 15% YoY, respectively. Further, Palm oil prices have risen sharply by 43% during 4QFY11. The trend in these key raw material prices shows a scenario which is similar to the one in April 2008-December 2008 period when input cost inflation impacted operating margins.

In the discretionary space, paints companies would be impacted by the sharp volatility in crude oil prices and rising prices of titanium-dioxide (TiO2).

Trend in LAB prices (INR/kg) Trend in Soda Ash prices (INR/50kg) 140 1600

120 1200 100

80 800 60

40 400 20

0 0 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11

Source: Industry, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 12

Higher prices of key raw materials had impacted HUL's Trend in prices of palm oil (MYR/t) margins during FY09

4500 56 Impact of rise in prices of LAB, 3600 54 Soda ash and palm oil 2700 52

1800 50

900 48

0 46 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 1QCY07 4QCY07 3QFY09 1QFY10 4QFY10 3QFY11

Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Company, Antique

HUL expected to witness better sales growth

We expect HUL to witness acceleration in sales growth during the quarter led by better growth primarily in soaps and detergents. However, the broad-based inflation in its key raw materials like LAB, soda ash and palm oil will offset the impact of the improvement in sales performance. We expect HUL to post a growth in sales of 14% during the quarter to INR49.2bn. However, EBITDA is expected to drop by 5% to INR5.03bn due to increase in raw material cost.

ITC to be the outperformer

In the current inflationary scenario, we expect ITC to be the clear outperformer backed by its addictive pricing power in cigarettes. We expect the company to witness further recovery in volume growth of cigarettes and continued lower losses in its other FMCG division. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 13

Abhineet Anand Industrials +91 22 4031 3441 [email protected] Strong earnings, inflows remain key Mohit Kumar +91 22 4031 3418 [email protected]

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ ABB 15,286 14,559 20,506 5 (25) 1,146 29 113 3,869 914 779 66 68 1,073 1,052 BGR Energy 17,200 16,598 12,511 4 37 1,978 1,791 1,414 10 40 1,204 1,083 876 11 37 BHEL 162,017 135,591 84,052 19 93 35,443 24,873 18,097 42 96 25,968 19,096 13,382 36 94 L & T 158,376 133,749 113,227 18 40 24,131 20,508 12,385 18 95 16,186 13,374 8,070 21 101 27,826 22,261 25,381 25 10 3,617 2,861 3,628 26 (0) 2,416 1,811 2,418 33 (0) Suzlon 58,181 61,220 44,330 (5) 31 7,642 5,350 2,440 43 213 3,053 (1,970) (2,540) NM NM Tecpro Systems 10,123 7,418 4,620 36 119 2,025 1,783 516 14 293 1,162 898 187 30 520 Total 449,009 391,395 304,627 15 47 75,982 57,194 38,592 33 97 50,769 34,358 22,461 48 126

We expect our universe of Industrial companies to witness a revenue growth of 15% for the quarter which will translate into net profit growth of 6%. Excluding Suzlon (which we expect to report a loss), profit for the pack is expected to grow by 12% YoY (~10% QoQ). Overall, we are positive on the outlook of set of numbers from BHEL, Siemens, L&T and Tecpro Systems.

BHEL

We estimate company to record sales growth of 19% for the quarter (20% growth YoY) mainly driven by the strong order booking. At the end of 4QFY11, the company had an order book of ~INR1.6tn. Our EBITDA margin estimate is 22% for the quarter, an increase of 3.5% YoY. Net profit is estimated to be INR25.9bn - growth of 36% over 3QFY10. The order inflows for the company have been stagnant for the last three years. BHEL has guided for 10% increase in order inflow which will be key to stock performance.

L&T

L&T has reported a revenue growth of 21% in 9mFY11 and 40% in 3QFY11. We expect company to report a revenue growth of 20% for the quarter and 21% for the full year. The key number to be watched is order inflow in the quarter. We expect order inflow to be muted this quarter on account of delays in awarding of orders in power and infrastructure sectors (segment constitutes 37% and 32% of current order book). We expect company to report a net profit of INR16.2bn, a growth of 21% YoY.

BGR Energy

BGR Energy is expected to report sales and net profits of INR17.2bn and INR1.2bn, a YoY growth of ~4% and ~11% respectively. We expect revenue booking from the EPC project of Kalisindh and Mettur and BoP orders of Chandrapur and Marwa which are in advanced stages of execution. EBITDA margin for the quarter is expected to be 11.5% as against 10.8% in 4QFY10, similar to margins reported in the last three quarters. We expect order inflow to be low for the quarter as awarding of BoP and EPC orders for SEBs and NTPC have been postponed for 1QFY12.

Siemens

The revenue is expected to grow by 25% YoY to INR27.8 bn while PAT is expected to be INR2.4bn, a growth of 33% YoY. We expect company to report EBITDA and PAT margin of 13% and 8.7%, respectively. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 14

ABB

The company has been reporting lower profitability for the last six-seven quarters on account of provisioning of ~INR1bn in the year. The profit margin was 3.4% in CY10 compared to 7.8% in CY09. However, the worst is behind and we expect company to start reporting healthy profit margin and growth in revenue going forward. We expect revenue to grow by 5% to INR15.2bn with a profit margin of 5.1% in the quarter (profit margin was 0.5% in 1QCY11).

Suzlon - a turnaround story?

Suzlon has been reporting losses for the last 7-8 quarters. We expect Suzlon to turn around and report a profit of INR3bn, a profit margin of 5.2% for the quarter. While estimated EBITDA is expected to grow to INR7.6bn by 43%. The improvement is expected on account of higher domestic booking and higher booking in subsidiary REPower. The company has raised USD150m through issue of FCCB. The company is expected to squeeze out the minority shareholders of REPower and delist it over the next year. This would help it to have absolute control on the company.

Quarterly sale(MW) and orderbook(MW) EBITDA and PAT(INRm)

3,000 8,000 2,578 2,378 6,000 2,500 4,000 2,000 2,000 1,459 1,551 1,500 - (2,000) 1,000 650 (4,000) 361 461 500 207 (6,000) - (8,000) 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11e 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11e EBITDA ( INRm) Depreciation Interes t PA T Sale - MW Order Book -MW

Source: Antique

Tecpro Systems

We expect company to report a topline growth of INR10.1bn (+36% YoY), EBITDA of 2.0bn (14% YoY) and profit of INR1.2bn (30% YoY). We have estimated 20% EBITDA margin for the quarter. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 15

Sandip Agarwal Information Technology +91 22 4031 3427 [email protected] Positive on , TCS; Cautious on

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Infosys 74,742 59,440 71,060 25.7 5.2 25,596 20,220 23,640 26.6 8.3 18,502 16,170 17,800 14.4 3.9 TCS 102,440 77,380 96,630 32.4 6.0 33,220 23,390 29,000 42.0 14.6 25,330 20,010 23,700 26.6 6.9 Wipro 81,738 70,023 78,202 16.7 4.5 17,572 15,094 16,344 16.4 7.5 13,421 12,361 13,259 8.6 1.2 CMC 3,014 2,365 2,783 27.4 8.3 999 917 879 8.9 13.7 477 443 454 7.7 5.1 KPIT 1,971 2,098 1,848 (6.1) 6.7 386 618 394 (37.5) (2.0) 208 193 214 7.8 (2.8) Persistent 2,021 1,717 1,949 17.7 3.7 461 383 428 20.4 7.7 362 397 362 (8.8) - Total 265,926 213,023 252,472 24.8 5.3 78,234 60,622 70,685 29.1 10.7 58,300 49,574 55,789 17.6 4.5

Sector Earnings:

„ IT Earnings: We believe that 4QFY11 will be a strong quarter for top IT companies due to uptick in discretionary spends. Contribution from the consultancy business will increase from the current quarter for both Infosys and TCS and will have a positive impact on the margins of the company.

„ Infosys vs. TCS: TCS once again will surprise the street with a growth leadership of ~6% QoQ, beating Infosys which could exhibit a ~5.2% QoQ rise. We foresee TCS gaining from uptick in discretionary spend and believe that margin triggers which have enabled TCS to post robust margin expansion in past few quarter vs. a decline by its competitor Infosys will remain intact.

„ Wipro: We also believe that worst is not yet over for Wipro and the company will once again be found wanting on the margin front primarily due to higher attrition and lower utilisation levels.

Guidance vs. expectation

„ Infosys: Although Infosys has guided revenues of INR71.57-72.30bn and EPS of INR31.06-31.28, our calculation gives us revenues of INR74.74bn (+5.3% QoQ) and an EPS of ~INR32.47 (+4.3% QoQ). We expect Infosys to guide a revenue growth of 17-19% and EPS growth of ~16-17% for FY12e. There is a high possibility that Infosys would affect a dividend payout of INR15/share and probably consider a generous bonus (1:1) on completion of its 30 years in FY11.

„ TCS: Although TCS' management does not provide any guidance, our calculation gives us a revenue growth of (+5.9% QoQ) and an EPS of ~INR12.94 (+6.9% QoQ). We expect TCS to upgrade its employee addition guidance from 37,000 to 45,000 for FY12e.

Infosys Technologies

On the revenue front, we believe that Infosys will also gain from the uptick in demand environment, and will once again outperform its muted guidance on the back of revival in demand environment driven by increase in discretionary spend. We expect robust growth in BFSI, retail and manufacturing fronts. Key triggers to watch for: „ Attrition: We believe that Infosys will report a slightly lower attrition of ~17% vs. 17.5% previously, based on the fact that the company has ramped up its lateral recruitment in the past two quarters.

„ High utilisation: We expect Infosys to post utilisation of ~74% (including trainees) based on its slightly low attrition vs. the previous quarter. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 16

„ Employee addition: Guiding towards an employee addition of ~25,000 for FY12e.

„ Cash: The company may come up with a dividend of INR15 in 4QFY11, maintaining its trend of distributing 25-30% of earnings (it had already given a dividend of INR10 and a special dividend of INR30 during FY11).

„ Bonus issue: Completed its 30 years in FY11, and going by the past trends we believe the company might give a 1:1 bonus issue.

Tata Consultancy Services

On revenue front, we believe TCS to benefit from uptick in demand environment, and to post robust growth in BFSI, retail and manufacturing verticals due to strong revenues from application development and consultancy. Improvement in consultancy and application development work will not only enable a robust revenue growth but will also aid margins due to uptick in overall average billing rate. Although 4Q is generally a weak quarter and expectations are quite sluggish, we expect 4QFY11 to contrast this trend with a strong growth as most of unused budget will get deployment in this quarter. Also, management's commentary on demand environment, deal pipeline and pricing uptick has been very positive (Refer: Chandrasekaran interaction on CNBC on Mar 29, 2011). Key triggers to watch for: „ Lower attrition: We believe TCS will once again post lowest attrition rate of 14-14.5% YoY among the peer set.

„ High utilisation: The company is expected to post utilisation of ~76.5% (including trainees) based on its low attrition rates and bench strength.

„ Low employee cost: TCS' employee costs to remain in the range of ~35.8% similar to the last three quarters helped by low attrition and high utilisation.

„ Employee addition: We expect it to upgrade employee addition target for FY12e from 37,000 to 45,000 based on the uptick in discretionary spend.

Wipro

Although Wipro had provided a revenue growth guidance of 3-5% on a sequential basis which is way high than what Infosys has guided (1.25-1.75%), we believe the chances of Wipro beating it at the high end will be a challenge. We also strongly believe that Wipro will not be able to post revenue growth higher than Infosys at least in the coming quarter. We also have serious concerns on the restructuring of manpower front where we believe that Wipro would have incurred significant expenses and also would have taken a shot at its utilization levels. Although we believe that the company will charge it as a one-time expense, the possibility of recurrence of the same is high for at least next few quarters. Key triggers to watch for: Our calculation based on operational metrics gives us revenues of INR81.7bn (+4% QoQ) and an EPS of ~INR5.48 (+1% QoQ). „ Higher attrition: We believe Wipro will report attrition of +20% and key thing to watch for will be involuntary attrition. Also, we believe that involuntary attrition will trigger voluntary attrition more in the coming quarters.

„ Low utilisation: The company is expected to post utilisation of ~71% (including trainees) based on its high attrition rates.

„ High one-time restructuring costs: We believe that the employee cost component reported by Wipro will have high involuntary employee costs.

„ Employee addition: We expect Wipro to give a fresh recruitment target for FY12e in the range of 18,000-20,000. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 17

CMC Ltd.

Key triggers to watch for: „ We expect CMC to report revenues of INR 3.01bn implying a YoY growth of 27.4% and sequential growth of 8%. Our high revenue estimates are based on both uptick in discretionary spend and high domestic growth primarily from government projects.

„ We believe the company will report an EPS of INR31.51. Our high EPS estimates are primarily based on continuous shift from low margin consumer business to high margin IT enabled services business.

„ We expect very positive commentary from the company primarily in the IT enabled services segment and education vertical. All the three verticals i.e. IT enabled services, systems integration and education are posting significant growth for the last few quarters and we expect the momentum to continue going ahead on the back of significant demand in the domestic IT services market triggered by budget allocation by most of the state governments and e-governance roll out coupled with successful implementation of UID.

Persistent Systems

Key triggers to watch for: „ We expect Persistent to report revenues of INR2.02bn implying a sequential growth of 4%.

„ PAT is expected to be flat at INR362m. Diluted EPS in 4QFY11 is estimated at INR9.06.

„ We expect company to guide sequential revenue growth of ~3-5% and also update on new projects and client budgets.

KPIT Cummins

Key triggers to watch for: „ We expect KPIT to report revenues of INR1.97bn, implying a sequential growth of 7%.

„ PAT is expected to decline by ~2% QoQ to INR208m. Diluted EPS in 4QFY11 is estimated at INR2.57.

„ We expect company to guide on usage of huge cash balance lying on its current account. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 18

Rajesh Zawar Media +91 22 4031 3450 [email protected] Cricket to rule the quarter Varun Gupta +91 22 4031 3412 [email protected]

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ IBN18 Consolidated 2,196 1,688 2,362 30 (7) 374 24 321 1,455 16 213 (225) 198 NA 8 Den Networks 2,678 2,463 2,644 9 1 294 270 265 9 11 130 170 89 (24) 47 Dish TV 4,076 3,031 3,732 34 9 671 349 666 93 1 (775) (598) (443) NA NA Hathway Cable 2,261 NA 2,271 NA (0) 425 NA 415 NA 2 (160) NA - NA NA Sun TV Network 5,700 3,910 5,970 46 (5) 3,581 3,309 5,018 8 (29) 2,049 1,651 2,255 24 (9) UTV Software Comm 2,674 1,306 2,559 105 4 684 407 534 68 28 366 305 400 20 (9) Zee Entertainment 7,501 6,493 7,549 16 (1) 1,699 1,836 1,541 (7) 10 1,220 1,263 1,509 (3) (19) Total 27,085 18,891 27,087 43 (0) 7,728 6,195 8,761 25 (12) 3,042 2,566 4,007 19 (24)

3QFY11 saw a buoyant growth led by festive season. In the current quarter, cricket world cup and Budget session steal the show. The GRPs of the Hindi GEC and other genres have fallen sharply in the last few weeks. The cricket is expected to constitute more than 20% of the total ad spends for CY11e with World cup generating an ad spend revenue of more than INR20bn and IPL 4 getting the rest of the pie. While the major portion of ad revenue spend during cricket goes to the match broadcasters, other channels also benefit due to the increase spend by companies. 4Q will see a marginal or flat growth for the sector followed by a double digit growth rate for FY12e. DTH industry - two fold benefits from Cricket packed quarter

DTH industry with a gross subs addition of ~1m per month will continue to see similar growth in subscriber addition number in the current and next quarter due to the cricket packed quarter. In addition to subscriber addition the industry will also see an upward trend in ARPU due to high definition TV. Dish TV, with an incremental market share of 30-32%, will reach a gross subscriber base of 10.4m in FY11e. We have forecasted an ARPU of INR142 for FY11e and revenue of 4.1bn for 4QFY11. Cable digitisation approved by cabinet

Cable operators which are facing sharp competition form DTH industry will get some relief once the digitisation bill is passed in the parliament. Hence, even though the long-term seems positive for the cable industry, delay in policy, stiff competition from DTH players and dithering of execution by cable companies will have negative impact in the short term. GEC - bowled by cricket season

GEC has seen a sharp fall in GRP over the last few weeks. We expect this trend to continue in the first half of next quarters which will be dominated by IPL 4. IBN18 which reported a sharp turnaround in the last quarter will see the growth momentum continued in the current quarter. 4Q also being the budget season will benefit the news business of the company, which constitutes 50% of the revenue of the restructured entity. The five state elections in , , Kerela, Assam and Pondicherry in the next quarter will drive the growth in revenue and earnings. Zee TV reported sports loss of INR1bn in 3QFY11 and the current quarter might see a similar cost structure due to the high cost associated with India-South Africa series. The GEC business will see a marginal growth due to improved domestic subscription revenue. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 19

Rajesh Zawar Metals +91 22 4031 3450 [email protected] Sector bouncing back Nilesh Mahajan +91 22 4031 3414 [email protected]

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Graphite India 3,360 3,386 3,375 (1) (0) 739 982 732 (25) 1 425 556 442 (24) (4) 68,841 54,044 59,746 27 15 9,117 8,354 7,401 9 23 5,960 6,639 4,603 (10) 29 29,282 24,985 26,015 17 13 17,182 15,548 14,318 11 20 14,746 12,920 12,428 14 19 Monnet Ispat 3,981 4,384 3,471 (9) 15 1,185 1,284 1,109 (8) 7 684 725 702 (6) (3) NALCO 18,565 16,260 14,432 14 29 5,753 5,411 3,896 6 48 3,935 3,915 2,560 1 54 Prakash Industries 4,493 4,643 3,823 (3) 18 820 990 717 (17) 14 500 737 551 (32) (9) Sterlite Industries 86,543 71,108 83,325 22 4 26,070 20,685 19,787 26 32 13,263 13,809 11,011 (4) 20 JSPL 32,665 31,756 31,740 3 3 16,449 14,587 15,987 13 3 11,101 9,634 9,511 15 17 JSW Steel 64,684 54,807 60,026 18 8 14,039 13,234 10,164 6 38 5,555 6,110 2,917 (9) 90 Sesa Goa 33,000 28,156 24,987 17 32 18,307 15,030 12,306 22 49 14,505 12,129 10,653 20 36 SAIL 125,150 122,298 113,128 2 11 28,150 30,971 17,957 (9) 57 17,788 20,849 11,075 (15) 61 (India) 80,323 73,394 73,974 9 9 30,811 31,307 28,205 (2) 9 16,207 21,623 15,135 (25) 7 Tata Steel (Consol) 327,731 275,038 290,895 19 13 42,562 47,502 34,246 (10) 24 14,115 32,410 9,489 (56) 49 Total 798,295 690,863 714,962 16 12 180,373 174,575 138,620 3 30 102,577 120,433 75,942 (15) 35

The metals sector was severely impacted by the consumption slowdown in major markets and has seen strong rise in raw material and finished product prices. 4QFY11 witnessed sharp recoveries in prices of base metals with near term bottom seen in 3QFY11. Ferrous sector also participated in the rally following the raw material prices increased but end product sequentially was at similar levels. However, towards quarter end, the metal witnessed some correction and the volatility persisted with Japanese Tsunami and global demand headwinds. Ferrous companies helped by higher volumes

We expect steel companies to increase their profitability sequentially in 4QFY11 with improvement in volumes however increase of raw material prices will be offset by better product realisations during the quarter. Thus, steel companies will see expansion in EBITDA per tonne for JSPL, JSW Steel and Tata Steel. Similarly, Sesa Goa will see improved performance by higher volumes on account of busy quarter and higher realisations. Non-ferrous companies benefitted by rising prices

Sequential rise in the metal prices will help the revenue growth of the non-ferrous companies. Hindalco, Nalco, Hindustan Zinc and Sterlite Industries will gain by rising output prices but the operating costs might see an increase with rising input prices from coal. Commodity Average Prices Change Change Commodity Unit 4QFY11 4QFY10 YoY (%) 3QFY11 QoQ (%) LME Aluminium Spot USD/t 2,506 2,167 16 2,341 7 LME Copper Spot USD/t 9,633 7,245 33 8,631 12 LME Zinc Spot USD/t 2,394 2,283 5 2,314 3 LME Lead Spot USD/t 2,602 2,211 18 2,387 9 LME Nickel Spot USD/t 26,905 20,096 34 23,565 14 LME Silver Spot USD/oz 32 17 89 27 20 LME Gold Spot USD/oz 1,388 1,110 25 1,370 1 Indian Domestic HRC USD/t 903 777 16 886 2 Iron ore fines 63.5% - CFR (China) USD/t 183 134 37 163 12

Source: Bloomberg ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 20

Amit Rustagi Oil & Gas +91 22 4031 3434 [email protected] Higher subsidy burden capping upstream realisations Ruchi Dugar +91 22 4031 3422 [email protected] Miten Vora +91 22 4031 3447 [email protected]

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ BPCL 450,083 375,509 366,655 20 23 13,280 11,272 7,284 18 82 6,628 17,897 1,874 (63) 254 Essar Oil 147,933 104,540 122,330 42 21 7,682 3,440 7,590 123 1 2,873 1,800 2,730 60 5 GAIL 88,438 65,221 83,650 36 6 15,618 13,637 13,331 15 17 9,630 9,108 9,676 6 (0) HPCL 414,560 313,213 339,025 32 22 10,745 13,139 6,267 (18) 71 3,971 7,575 2,110 (48) 88 IOC 989,914 772,299 803,332 28 23 44,990 72,986 27,275 (38) 65 19,128 55,568 16,348 (66) 17 OIL 24,237 18,321 23,887 32 1 11,006 6,658 12,281 65 (10) 6,849 4,310 9,080 59 (25) ONGC 173,943 147,133 185864 18 (6) 101,656 81,290 113,138 25 (10) 45,639 37,376 57,618 22 (21) Petronet 38,255 23,855 36,276 60 5 3,265 2,262 3,456 44 (6) 1,599 973 1,708 64 (6) RIL 728,290 575,700 597,890 27 22 100,787 91,360 95,450 10 6 54,239 47,100 51,360 15 6 Total 3,055,652 2,395,791 2,558,908 28 19 309,030 296,044 286,073 4 8 150,556 181,707 152,504 17 (1)

OMCs to post profits, with government support on under-recoveries and improved GRMs

During 4QFY11, with 21% QoQ rise in oil prices to USD105/bbl, under-recoveries on diesel and cooking fuel prices have risen to INR313.7bn from INR149.3bn in 3QFY11. We estimate cooking fuel under-recoveries at INR137.9bn and auto fuel under- recoveries (diesel) at INR175.8bn. We have assumed 1/3rd sharing of total under-recoveries by upstream companies, 50% to be shared by the government and the rest 17% to be borne by OMCs. With better GRMs and inventory gains due to rising oil price (up USD21/bbl since the beginning of the quarter), OMCs are expected to post profits despite FX losses as a result of rupee depreciation (-INR0.5/USD). While we expect government to compensate 50% of total under-recoveries, we are awaiting for further clarity on under-recovery sharing mechanism.

Company & product wise under-recoveries and its sharing (INRm) 4QFY11 (INRm) BPCL HPCL IOCL Total Diesel 43,581 36,709 95,481 175,771 Domestic LPG 19,570 20,099 35,890 75,559 PDS SKO 10,411 11,658 40,272 62,341 Total 73,562 68,466 171,643 313,670 Upstream share (1/3rd) 24,518 22,820 57,209 104,546 Sharing among upstream ONGC OIL GAIL Total Subsidy sharing 86,959 11,511 6,076 104,546 % sharing among upstream 83% 11% 6% 100%

Source: Antique

Net realisations of PSU upstream companies to be impacted by higher subsidy burden

ONGC is expected to post net realisations of ~USD59/bbl, up 14% YoY but down 10% QoQ and OIL is expected to post net realisations of ~USD60/bbl, up 1% QoQ and 27% YoY. We expect upstream companies to share 1/3rd of total under-recoveries. ONGC’s 4Q net profits are expected to increase by 22% YoY but decline 21% QoQ due to higher subsidy discount because of high oil prices. We expect DD&A to remain higher at INR45.6bn and a flattish QoQ oil & gas production. OIL is expected to post a net profit of INR6.8bn, higher by 59% YoY and but decline of 25% QoQ due to higher subsidy discount. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 21

RIL earnings to remain strong despite fall in KG-D6 production

We expect to report a 15% YoY and 6% QoQ rise in net profits aided by 28% YoY increase in refining GRMs at USD9.6/bbl. Refining EBIT of INR28.8bn is expected to rise 18% QoQ and 45% YoY due to better GRMs. E&P earnings to get impacted by fall in KG-D6 gas production by 6% QoQ to 51mmcmd (including MA). Panna Mukta volumes recovered QoQ, oil increased by 29% to 36.9Mbbl/d and gas increased by 52% to 5.8mmcmd. Petchem earnings are expected to fall by 3% QoQ due to sharp rise in feed cost prices despite recovery in Petchem prices.

GAIL core earnings to remain strong, provision for DUPL tariff to impact growth

We expect GAIL to report flat QoQ earnings due to 20% fall in transmission EBIT impacted by INR120m provision for 6% reduction in tariff by regulator, effective November 2008. Petchem EBIT on the other hand is expected to rise by 94% QoQ due to 51% QoQ sales and 6% higher QoQ HDPE prices. We estimate GAIL to share 1/3rd of cooking fuel losses and share subsidy amount of ~INR6.1bn (up 45% QoQ).

For PLNG, We estimate earnings to rise by 64% YoY but down 6% QoQ. We expect a 30% YoY and a flat QoQ growth in volumes due to higher spot cargoes. PLNG has done nearly 8 spot cargoes, out of which 4 cargoes are done as re-gasification services.

Essar Oil's profitability boosted by recovery in refining margins

We expect Essar Oil to post a 60% YoY and 5% QoQ rise in net profit led by upswing in Asian refining margins. Essar Oil is expected to report GRMs of USD6.5/bbl excluding any sales tax benefit helped by sharp recovery in diesel crack spreads, and inventory gains due to rising oil price (up USD21/bbl since the beginning of 4QFY11).

Summary of key indicators Particulars (USD/bbl) 4QFY11 4QFY10 YoY (Chg %) 3QFY11 QoQ (Chg %) Bonny Light 107 78 37 88 21 Dubai 100 76 32 84 18 SGP Diesel-Dubai 18.1 8.9 103 12.9 40 SGP Gasoiine-Dubai 12.5 12.6 (0) 10.8 16 SGP Naphtha-Dubai (0.3) 2.3 (112) 3.3 (108) SGP Dubai-Arab heavy 2.6 1.3 103 3.1 (16) SGP Dubai-Maya 8.8 5.3 68 8.3 7 SGP 95 RON-Dubai 12.5 12.6 (0) 10.8 16 INR/USD 45.3 45.9 (1) 44.8 1 Reuters SGP GRMs 7.4 4.9 51 5.4 37

Source: Bloomberg, Antique

Refining margins continues to rise in 4QFY11, led by strong diesel spreads 10 40 140

8 30 110

6 20 80

4 10 50

2 0 20 1QFY08 4QFY08 3QFY09 2QFY10 1QFY11 4QFY11 3QFY05 4QFY06 1QFY08 2QFY09 3QFY10 4QFY11 SGP GRM (USD/bbl) SGP Diesel-Dubai (USD/bbl) SGP Dubai crude (USD/bbl,RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, Antique ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 22

Despite rise in oil prices, light heavy spreads remain flattish Singapore Gasoline R95-Dubai crude rise to USD3/bbl QoQ 16 120 33 28 12 95 23 18 8 70 13 8 4 45 3 -2 0 20 -7 3QFY05 4QFY06 1QFY08 2QFY09 3QFY10 4QFY11 Jan Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Dubai-M aya (USD/bbl) SGP Dubai-Arab heavy(USD/bbl) SGP Dubai crude (USD/bbl)-RHS 05-10 range 2009 2010 2011

Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique

INR appreciated by 1.3% YoY and depreciated 1%QoQ Singapore Naphtha-Dubai crude fall by USD3/bbl QoQ against USD 20 51

10 49 47 0 45 -10 43 -20 41

-30 39 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec 3QFY05 4QFY06 1QFY08 2QFY09 3QFY10 4QFY11

05-10 range 2009 2010 2011 INR/USD

Source: Bloomberg, Antique Source: Bloomberg, Antique ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 23

Nishant Patel Pharmaceuticals +91 22 4031 3426 [email protected] Buoyancy to continue

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ 10,780 9,128 11,922 18 (10) 3,245 2,724 3,195 19 2 2,461 2,068 1,887 19 30 10,820 8,466 11,668 28 (7) 2,528 1,894 2,562 34 (1) 1,636 1,188 1,620 38 1 Indoco Remedies 1,226 1,105 1,155 11 6 151 126 145 20 4 85 82 88 4 (3) 4,438 3,817 4,664 16 (5) 918 814 910 13 1 573 499 527 15 9 Lupin Ltd 15,616 13,282 15,102 18 3 3,921 2,924 2,973 34 32 2,669 2,206 2,240 21 19 11,690 10,157 16,011 15 (27) 2,260 1,941 3,510 16 (36) 2,406 2,635 2,606 (9) (8) Jubilant Lifesciences 7,984 6,048 8,690 32 (8) 1,720 1,585 1,322 8 30 1,143 920 442 24 159 Total 73,088 56,234 66,572 20 (7) 16,457 14,435 15,672 21 5 10,996 9,755 12,556 16 30

Steady state growth in domestic market

Indian pharmaceutical companies are likely to maintain strong growth in 4QFY11. The sustained growth is driven by new product introductions and higher penetration in the domestic as well as regulated markets. Domestic formulation market is expected to grow further by ~15% with chronic therapy areas outpacing the acute. We expect companies to register a growth of ~12-15% in the domestic market, and adjusting for base effect, the growth could be ~7-8% in 4QFY11. Most of the domestic companies have continued to add field force during the quarter resulting in higher overheads for certain companies. We expect companies such as Ipca, Lupin, Sun Pharma, and Cadila Healthcare, to grow by ~15-18% in 4QFY11e.

Regulated markets to witness strong growth on the back of higher product approvals

Prescription trends for Indian companies supplying generics and branded generics have witnessed an upmove. Indian companies have received approvals for products with exclusivity such as Pantaprazole, Omeprezole OTC, and Fexofinadine for Dr. Reddy's, Zolpidem for Ranbaxy and Taxotere for Cadila JV - this will drive major revenue upsides in the US. Companies such as Lupin and Cadila Healthcare which have a branded formulations business in the US have continued to witness stronger prescription sales in 4QFY11.

CRAMs business on road to gradual recovery

Our interaction with Custom Research and Manufacturing Service (CRAM) companies gives us some sense that customers have started re-stocking inventory in 4QFY11e. Big pharmacos have resumed outsourcing after the recent spate of high-value M&As resulted in realignment of excess capacity. Companies such as Jubilant Lifesciences and Dishman Pharma continue to witness partial restocking of inventory and have signed sub-USD50m contracts. The outsourcing industry is still void of large multi-year, multi-million dollar deals that will result in higher growth and better confidence in the industry. We expect CRAM companies to grow ~8-10% in 4QFY11e.

Aurobindo Pharma

We expect Aurobindo Pharma (Aurobindo) to report a 15% growth in revenues at INR10.7bn. Growth in revenue will be aided by contribution strong sales in the export formulation business, however income from the deal is expected to slow down in 1QFY12, we expect some impact in 4QFY11e. The quarter has witnessed two setbacks on the Pfizer deal - one on Import alert sounded on Unit VI and product recall issue faced by Pfizer's Generic arm Greenstone. We increased contribution from Pfizer deal. The quarter has witnessed an ARV contract being awarded to Aurobindo resultant of which we expect the segment to witness 18% growth during the quarter. Export formulations which include geographies such as Europe and RoW markets will witness 16% growth on the back of new product launches and maintaining prescription share of existing products. We expect operating profits to grow by 15% to INR3.2bn and maintain margins at 30.1% during the current quarter. We expect the net profit to increase by 16% to INR2.5bn during the quarter. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 24

Cadila Healthcare

We expect Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) to report a revenue growth of 29% to INR10.8bn during 4QFY11e. We expect the Zydus Hospira JV to witness higher contribution on account of FDA approval received to market generic Taxotere. This will help improve capacity utilization levels and income for the JV during the quarter. We expect the domestic formulations business to grow above market growth rates of 15% on account of higher contribution from chronic therapy areas. Better product mix and cost rationalization efforts is likely to result in 34% rise in operating profits to INR2.5bn with operating margin growth of 100bps at 23.4% during the quarter. We expect Cadila to report a net profit growth of 38% to INR1.6bn

Indoco Remedies

We expect Indoco Remedies (Indoco) to report a revenue growth of 11% to INR1.2bn driven by strong domestic and export sales. We expect operating margins to expand by 100bps to 12.3% during the quarter. Net profit is expected to grow 4% to INR85m during the quarter.

Ipca Laboratories Limited

We expect Ipca to report a revenue growth of 16% to INR4.4bn during 4QFY11e. This growth will be achieved by combination of higher sales in the domestic market and good regulated market sales. The quarter witnessed Ipca's manufacturing facility receiving UKMHRA approval to its Indore SEZ which will result in higher off-take from the UK and European markets. We expect utilization levels at the facility to be slow during the quarter actual pick up in volumes from the Indore SEZ for UK is expected only by 1QFY12e onwards. We expect overheads of maintaining the site to be high even in the current quarter impacting operating margins. We expect operating margins to decline by 100bps to 20% during the quarter. Net profits are likely grow by 14% to INR572m.

Lupin Limited

We expect Lupin to report a revenue growth of 15% to INR15.6bn driven by strong domestic formulation sales and higher international contribution. We expect Lupin's domestic formulations business to grow at 15% in 4QFY11e. Branded generics segment in the US is expected to witness a lag despite increased sales in Antara prescription in the last two months. Generics business on the other hand will grow at 15% in the regulated markets. Japan will witness strong traction on a lower base resulting in higher revenue from that geography. Better product mix and cost rationalization efforts will result in EBIDTA growing by 25% during the quarter to INR3.9bn and PAT to grow by 18% to INR2.7bn.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited

We expect Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (Sun Pharma) to report a growth of 15% (excluding Taro sales). On the domestic formulation business, we expect the segment to outpace the industry growth at 20% during the quarter. However, despite stronger topline growth, we expect the operating profits to increase by only 16% on account of integration of Taro and costs associated with it to INR2.2bn and Net profits to grow 10% to INR2.8bn.

Jubilant Lifesciences

Our interaction with the CRAMs companies suggests that big pharmacos have resumed re-stocking inventory in 4QFY11e. Big pharmacos have realigned their manufacturing sites after series of high-value M&A in 2009. Pharma companies have resumed outsourcing research and manufacturing to Indian companies. Indian companies such as Jubilant Lifesciences, Dishman Pharma and Divis Laboratories have signed sub-USD50m contracts with big players. Though they are currently void of any large multi- year, multi-million dollar deals, we expect this segment to gain traction only from 1QFY12 onwards. We expect Jubilant Lifesciences to grow at 32% to INR7.8bn. We expect revenue to witness an uptick on account of partial restocking of inventory by the big pharmacos. We expect EBIDTA to grow by 8% to INR1.7bn and PAT to grow 24% to INR1.1m during 4QFY11e. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 25

Karishma Solanki Real Estate & Road Infrastructure +91 22 4031 3446 [email protected] Phoenix Mills and Indiabulls Real Estate to see strong YoY earnings growth

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Real Estate DLF 25,240 19,944 24,799 27 2 11,942 10,000 11,780 19 1 4,950 4,264 4,657 16 6 Unitech 7,707 11,074 6,598 (30) 17 2,769 2,475 2,088 12 33 1,557 1,634 1,114 (5) 40 HDIL 4,160 4,341 4,554 (4) (9) 2,413 2,271 2,665 6 (9) 2,166 1,778 2,519 22 (14) IBREL 1,566 607 3,997 158 (61) 477 (120) 1,229 497 (61) 398 9 766 4,556 (48) Phoenix Mills 464 345 451 35 3 338 198 327 71 3 245 157 238 56 3 Sobha Developers 3,621 4,008 3,629 (10) (0) 1,072 965 820 11 31 493 557 490 (11) 1 DB Realty 2,323 NA 2,733 NA (15) 999 NA 1,191 NA (16) 754 NA 1,087 NA (31) Total 42,757 40,319 44,027 6 (3) 19,011 15,789 18,909 20 1 9,810 8,399 9,783 17 0 (ex-DB Realty) Road Infrastructure IL&FS Transportation 8,804 NA 7,337 NA 20 2,377 NA 2,207 NA 8 725 NA 616 NA 18 Total 8,804 NA 7,337 NA 20 2,377 NA 2,207 NA 8 725 NA 616 NA 18

Real Estate

In the past year, real estate prices have rebounded in most markets across the country. In some markets such as prices have crossed peak levels and affordability has once again become a concern resulting in declining residential sales volumes in the city. While prices have increased in NCR, demand seems to have stabilised. The past year saw high absorption levels in Noida region given the launch of several mid-income housing projects. With property prices still below peak levels, improving infrastructure and strong outlook for employment generation and salary hikes, emerges as one of the most attractive real estate markets in the country. Going forward, we expect real estate prices to moderate/stabilise, and given rising interest rates, we expect affordability to once again become a key issue in influencing demand. Demand for office space too has recovered in the past year in most markets. We expect office space absorption to continue to improve in FY12e driven by healthy growth in the economy. However, upside on rentals will be limited given sufficient supply in pipeline.

Road Infrastructure

The pace of project awards by NHAI has improved in FY11 but is still below the level required to achieve the target of completion of 20km of road per day. In FY11, NHAI awarded ~5,100km of road, an increase of 52% over FY10 but well below the target of 9,000km. That said we expect the pace of project awards to increase in FY12e since it is the last year of the 11th plan. In an effort to expedite the process of project awards, NHAI has invited applications from road developers for pre-qualification of projects that are expected to be floated within a year. The pre-qualification will be valid from 1st Jan to 31st Dec every year and the companies seeking pre-qualification must indicate the estimated project cost for which it wishes to get pre-qualified. In FY12e, NHAI is looking to award 7,300km of roads, of which 700-800km will be awarded in April itself and ~2,000km in 1QFY12e. DLF

„ In 4QFY11, similar to the trend seen in previous quarters of FY11, new launches were lower than anticipated. In its 3QFY11 results, DLF had stated plans to launch ~8m sq ft of new projects in Gurgaon, Chandigarh, and . However, in 4QFY11, the company launched only ~3.3m sq ft - ~2m sq ft of plots in Mullanpur (Chandigarh), 1m sq ft of commercial space (Horizon Centre) in Gurgaon and 0.3m sq ft of luxury housing in Delhi (Greater Kailash II).

„ We expect the company to end the year with ~9-10m sq ft of sales (6.5m sq ft sold in 9mFY11) vs. its target of ~12m sq ft and 20-28% lower volumes than the 12.5m sq ft sold in FY10. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 26

„ Plotted development will be an important feature of FY12 launches. The company plans to launch plots in Indore, New Gurgaon and Panchkula. Additional launches planned in FY12 include group housing in New Gurgaon, Gurgaon Phase V and Bangalore Phase II.

„ We estimate ~16% YoY growth in net profit in 4QFY11 but on a QoQ basis we expect the increase in net profit to be relatively muted at 6% on account of few new launches.

HDIL

„ We estimate 4QFY11 TDR volumes to be ~12% lower QoQ at ~1.1m sq ft (vs. 1.25m sq ft in 3QFY11) given decline in residential sale volumes in Mumbai which is expected to translate into lower demand for TDR. However, we expect TDR prices to be stable QoQ.

„ HDIL will likely continue to monetise its land in the Vasai-Virar belt in the coming quarters. We are estimating a 15% QoQ increase in revenue recognised from FSI sale in Vasai-Virar in 4QFY11.

„ In Oct 2010, the company had signed an MoU for sale of FSI worth ~INR6.5bn at its Goregaon Siddharth Nagar project. If this transaction is recognised in the books, earnings could be higher than estimated.

„ For 4QFY11, we expect HDIL's net profit to grow 22% YoY primarily due to higher TDR prices. However, on a QoQ basis, we expect net profit to be down 14% on account of lower TDR sale volumes.

Indiabulls Real Estate (IBREL)

„ IBREL's 4QFY11 revenue and net profit is expected to see a substantial YoY jump since residential projects began contributing to revenue recognition only from 1QFY11.

„ On a QoQ basis, we expect revenues to be lower since the revenue recognition threshold for some large projects was crossed in the previous quarters, as a result of which a substantial percentage of revenue was recognized in the last quarter.

„ Area of office spaced leased in Jupiter and Elphinstone Mills is expected to have increased given that ~2.45m sq ft of office space has been completed in both these projects together.

Sobha Developers

„ We expect Sobha Developers' 4QFY11e revenues and net profit to be relatively flat QoQ. On a YoY basis however, we expect net profit to be down 11% due to lower revenue recognition from sale of land.

„ Sales volumes for 4QFY11 are expected to be 0.5-0.6m sq ft vs. 0.7m sq ft in 3QFY11 largely because no new projects were launched during the quarter.

„ Lower sales volumes in 4QFY11 will be offset by better realisations. Average realisation is expected to improve from INR3,946/ sq ft in 3QFY11 to ~INR4,100/sq ft in 4QFY11.

„ Several projects are scheduled to be launched in 1QFY12 including large projects in NCR and North Bangalore.

Phoenix Mills

„ 4QFY11 net profit is expected to register a 56% YoY increase on account of higher income contribution from Palladium. On a QoQ basis, we expect net profit growth to increase marginally by 3%.

„ Fit outs by retailers is in advanced stages at Pune Market City and the mall is scheduled to open in the second half of Apr 2011. This will be the company's first mall to become operational after .

„ Opening of market city projects in Pune, Bangalore and Kurla and renewal of lease agreements with anchor tenants (Big Bazaar, Lifestyle and Pantaloon) occupying ~0.15m sq ft at High Street Phoenix are key events to track in FY12. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 27

Unitech

„ As at end of 3QFY11 Unitech had sold 7.19m sq ft and may end the year with ~9.5-9.7m sq ft of sales, just a little short of its target of 10m sq ft.

„ We estimate 4QFY11 net profit to decline 5% YoY but on a QoQ basis net profit is expected to show a healthy growth of 40% given that 3QFY11 profits were negatively impacted by non-operating loss of INR376m on account of disposal of a capital asset.

DB Realty

„ We expect TDR from Mahul Nagar project to continue contributing the largest share of revenues in 4QFY11. Orchid Woods in Goregaon East is expected to be the other major factor contributing to revenues given the advanced stage of completion.

IL&FS Transportation

„ We expect a healthy QoQ growth in revenues and net profit since the company has achieved good construction progress on 4-5 projects in 4QFY11 and the 10% threshold limit for revenue recognition is expected to have been crossed for some projects.

„ Towards the end of the quarter, the company tied-up debt for Phase II of the Mega Highways project. ~75% of the total project cost of INR8.14bn is financed through senior debt facility with a rate of interest of 11% pa. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 28

Vikram Suryavanshi Shipping & Logistics +91 22 4031 3428 [email protected] Overcapacity impacted the recovery in seasonally strong quarter

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ GE Shipping 5,206 7,667 5,560 (32.1) (6.4) 1,949 3,157 2,023 (38.3) (3.7) 601 2,113 622 (71.6) (3.5) Essar Shipping 8,991 8,516 8,190 5.6 9.8 3,009 2,676 2,986 12.4 0.8 190 745 265 (74.5) (28.3) Mercator Lines 7,561 4,820 7,777 56.9 (2.8) 1,100 1,347 1,380 (18.3) (20.3) (279) 2 38 NA NA Great Offshore 2,667 2,739 1,978 (2.7) 34.8 1,296 1,357 763 (4.5) 69.9 466 731 18 (36.2) NA Mundra Port and SEZ 5,318 4,205 4,508 26.5 18.0 3,525 2,521 3,098 39.8 13.8 2,609 1,922 2,285 35.7 14.2 Total 29,743 27,948 28,013 6.4 6.2 10,879 11,057 10,250 (1.6) 6.1 3,586 5,512 3,229 (35) 11

Freight rates in tanker segment reported significant decline on a YoY basis even from a low base in 4QFY11 and witnessed a marginal recovery on a QoQ basis particularly in VLCC segment. Baltic Dirty Index for crude carriers declined by 18.5% YoY to 823, while Baltic Clean Index for product carriers declined by 14.6% YoY to 692. However, product carrier index remained positive on a QoQ basis with marginal increase of 1.1% in Baltic Clean Index. The freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCC) remained weak as compared to smaller Suezmax vessels. The time charter yield for spot VLCC declined by 70.1% on a YoY basis to USD10,419 per day (pd). The freight rates index for dry bulk commodity, Baltic Dry bulk Index (BDI), declined by 55.27% on a YoY basis (degrowth of 42.7% QoQ) to 1,355 in 4QFY11.

Shipping Index movement Index 4QFY10 3QFY11 4QFY11 YoY (%) QoQ (%) Baltic Dry bulk 3,026 2,363 1,355 (55.2) (42.7) Baltic Dirty 1,010 848 823 (18.5) (2.9) Baltic Clean 810 684 692 (14.6) 1.1

Source: Bloomberg

Freight rates in Tanker segment (Spot rates, USD per day) Segment 4QFY10 3QFY11 4QFY11 YoY (%) QoQ (%) VLCC 34,836 6,832 10,419 (70.1) 52.5 Suezmax 22,271 12,401 11,355 (49.0) (8.4) Aframax 13,818 10,656 6,747 (51.2) (36.7) Product 4,126 2,370 1,946 (52.8) (17.9)

Source: Company

GE Shipping

„ Revenue is expected to decline by 32.1% YoY (QoQ decline of 6.4%) from INR7.6bn in 4QFY10 to INR5.2bn in 4QFY11. The company acquired 2 bulk carriers (1Supramax and 1 Kamsarmax) and also acquired 1 offshore platform/ROV Support vessel in its offshore subsidiary. It purchased 350ft (IC) jack up rig from Mercator Lines which was under in-charter by offshore subsidiary for 3 year contract with ONGC ending on March 2012.

„ EBIDTA is expected to decline by 38.3% YoY from INR3.1bn in 4QFY10 to INR1.9bn in 4QFY11. The margins are expected to decline from 41.2% in 4QFY10 to 37.4% in 4QFY11 compared to 36.4% in 3QFY11. QoQ improvement in margin is expected due to lower hire cost and repair & maintenance cost.

„ Net Profit is expected to decline by 71.6% on YoY basis (QoQ decline of 3.5%) from INR2.1bn in 4QFY10 to INR601m in 4QFY11. We expect EPS of INR3.9 in 4QFY11. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 29

Essar Shipping, Port and Logistics

„ Revenue is expected to increase by 5.6% YoY (QoQ increase of 9.8%) from INR8.5bn in 4QFY10 to INR8.9bn in 4QFY11, mainly due to commencement of 30mtpa bulk terminal at Hazira, Gujarat. The company is insulated from volatility in shipping freight rates due to long term contacts for its full fleet.

„ EBIDTA is expected to increase by 12.4% YoY from INR2.6bn in 4QFY10 to INR3.0bn in 4QFY11. EBIDTA margins are expected to improve from 31.4% in 4QFY10 to 33.5% in 4QFY11.

„ Net Profits is expected to increase from INR744.8m in 4QFY10 to INR190.2m in 4QFY11 translating into EPS of INR0.3.

Mercator Lines

„ Revenue is expected to increase by 56.9% YoY from INR4.8bn in 4QFY10 to INR7.5bn in 4QFY11 mainly due to increased in coal mining and logistics business despite weakness in tanker freight rates on YoY basis. The revenue from coal mining is expected to increase by 233% YoY from INR1.2bn in 4QFY10 to INR4.1bn in 4QFY11.

„ EBIDTA is expected to decline by 18.3% YoY from INR1.3bn in 4QFY10 to INR1.1bn in 4QFY11. The margins are expected to decline from 27.9% in 4QFY11 to 14.5% in 4QFY11 compared to 17.7% in 3QFY10. The margin decline is mainly on account of higher contribution from low margin coal business in 4QFY11 and weakness in freight rates.

„ The company is expected to report loss of INR279.4m after adjustment of minority interest of INR50m in 4QFY11 as compared to profit of INR2m in 4QFY10.

Great Offshore

„ Revenue is expected to decline marginally by 2.6% YoY (34.8% QoQ), from INR2.70bn in 4QFY10 to INR2.6bn in 4QFY11.

„ EBIDTA is estimated to degrow by 4.4% YoY, from INR1.4bn in 4QFY10 to INR1.3bn in 4QFY11. Margins are expected to decline by 93bps, from 49.5% to 48.6% during the same period compared to 38.5% in 3QFY11 mainly on account of higher project expenditure.

„ Net Profits are expected to decline by 36.1% on YoY from INR730.5m in 4QFY10 to INR466.1m in 4QFY11 translating into EPS of INR12.5.

Mundra Port and SEZ

„ Revenue is expected to increase by 26.5% YoY (18.0% QoQ), from INR4.2bn in 4QFY10 to INR5.3bn in 4QFY11, mainly due to commencement of 60mtpa bulk terminal at Mundra, Gujarat.

„ EBIDTA is expected to surge by 39.8% YoY, from INR2.5bn in 4QFY10 to INR3.5bn in 4QFY11, while EBIDTA margins are expected to improve from 59.9% to 66.3% during the same period.

„ Net profits are expected to increase by 35.7% YoY (14.2% QoQ), from INR1.9bn in 4QFY10 to INR2.6bn in 4QFY11, translating into EPS of INR1.3. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 30

Nirav Shah Sugar +91 22 4031 3473 [email protected] Better times ahead

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Balrampur Chini Mills 4,887 4,705 5,315 4 (8) 875 814 724 7 21 320 276 234 16 37 Shree Renuka Sugars 15,671 17,814 22,470 (12) (30) 3,084 3,545 3,005 (13) 3 681 2,242 664 (70) 3 Triveni Engineering 5,840 5,949 5,921 (2) (1) 1,049 508 700 107 50 457 143 239 220 91 Total 26,399 28,468 33,706 (7) (22) 5,008 4,867 4,429 3 13 1,458 2,660 1,136 (45) 28

Balrampur Chini Mills

„ BCML is expected to post revenues of INR4.9bn in 6QFY11, an increase of 4% YoY. On the performance of sugar division, we expect volumes to rise by 38% to 155,000mt and average realisations to decline by 14% to INR27,500/mt.

„ We expect OPM to expand by 60bps to 17.9% on account of higher contribution per tonne of sugar sold. Accordingly, operating profits should rise by 8% to INR875m.

„ Capital charges should decline by 2% to INR475m on account of lower interest outgo. We expect net profits to rise by 16% to INR320m.

Shree Renuka Sugars

„ We anticipate Renuka to report a revenue de-growth of 12% YoY to INR15.7bn in 2QFY11 on the back of lower contribution from trading operations. Due to lower inventory levels at Brazilian operations, the same may not contribute significantly to the topline.

„ Margins are expected to remain stable at 19.7% as profitability on domestic operations will witness significant improvement due to higher exports. Accordingly, operating profits should decline by 13% to INR3.1bn.

„ We expect the company to post net profits of INR681m as against INR2.2bn in 2QFY10.

Triveni Engineering & Industries

„ For 2QFY11, we expect TEIL’s net sales to remain stable at INR5.8bn, primarily led by better performance from the engineering division and higher sugar volumes. Engineering division should post a healthy growth of 18% in revenues.

„ We expect OPM to expand by 940bps to 18% leading to operating profits growth of 107% to INR1.05bn. Margin expansion should be on account of improving profitability of sugar division and stable margins at engineering segments. With lower debt and working capital requirements coupled with absence of capex, we expect capital charges to remain stable.

„ We expect TEIL to post profits (before extra-ordinary) of INR457m as against INR143m in 2QFY10. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 31

Abhineet Anand Utilities +91 22 4031 3441 [email protected] Not enough spark Mohit Kumar +91 22 4031 3418 [email protected]

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ CESC 8,843 8,100 9,390 9 (6) 2,577 2,020 2,530 28 2 1,121 1,059 1,100 6 2 Lanco Infratech 25,228 23,419 15,614 8 62 5,607 5,990 4,799 (6) 17 1,404 1,133 1,640 24 (14) Navabharat Ventures 2,331 3,153 2,466 (26) (5) 693 1,234 556 (44) 25 614 1,100 493 (44) 25 NTPC 143,983 123,534 134,965 17 7 36,488 26,657 38,383 37 (5) 21,503 20,177 23,769 7 (10) Power Grid 26,273 22,307 20,521 18 28 21,700 18,207 17274 19 26 7,240 7,559 5912 (4) 22 PTC 17,280 12,430 17,575 39 (2) 215 90 406 138 (47) 232 141 388 65 (40) Reliance Infrastructure 34,176 26,439 26,176 29 31 3,110 2,714 2,470 15 26 2,650 1,657 2,511 60 6 66,679 53,716 42,014 24 59 12,720 13,498 10,546 (6) 21 7,746 6,603 4,414 17 76 Total 324,794 273,098 268,721 19 21 83,109 70,410 76,965 18 8 42,511 39,429 40,227 8 6

We expect sales growth of 19% for our universe mainly aided by higher revenues from NTPC, Power Grid and Tata Power. We expect profit for our universe to be 8% up on a YoY basis. Net profits for NTPC, Lanco Infratech and PTC are expected to grow by 7%, 24% and 65%, respectively. Power Grid The company has commissioned transmission projects worth INR104bn (INR36bn in FY10 and INR68.2bn in 9mFY11). As the company returns are directly correlated with the amount of projects commissioned, we expect the company to report revenue of INR22.3bn, a YoY growth of ~21%. Lanco Infratech Lanco is expected to post 8% and 24% YoY growth in revenue and profit for 4QFY11. This will be mainly driven by the EPC and merchant power businesses. At the end of 9mFY11, EPC revenue growth was flat which for the full year is expected to register 3% growth. Further, in the current quarter there would be pick up in the revenues from merchant power which would positively impact the earnings for the quarter. We expect the company to have a profit of INR1.4bn as against INR1.1bn in 4QFY10. NTPC The company has reported provisional PAT of INR25bn (+24% YoY), while PAT for the year stands at INR88.2bn (+1% YoY). However, the results are after grossing up the revenue by corporate tax rate. The profit has not grown despite commissioning of 1600MW during the year. While the company used MAT for the first three quarter, it has considered normal tax for the current quarter and fiscal, and hence, higher earnings. The full year impact of change in tax is expected to be in the ~INR7-8bn range. PTC PTC is expected to report higher revenue on account of increased sale of units but lower sales realisation on account of lower merchant prices in this quarter. We expect 70% increase in number of units traded. We expect the company to trade ~5.5BU as against 3.3BU in 4QFY10. Consequently, we expect increase of 20% in revenue to INR17.3bn. Being a electricity trader, profitability is based on number of units sold for the company and we expect company to report profit of INR232m (+65% YoY), in line with increased number of units traded. Tata Power We estimate company to report revenue of INR66.7bn and a profit of INR7.7bn, a y-o-y increase of 24% and 17% respectively. This increase is mainly on account of higher revenue and profit from its Indonesian JVs which are involved in coal mining businesses. International coal prices over the last one year has moved up 20-30% which is expected to positively impact the earnings of the coal companies. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 32

Amol Rao Miscellaneous +91 22 4031 3435 [email protected] Business as usual, no hiccups expected Nirav Shah +91 22 4031 3473 [email protected] Rajesh Zawar +91 22 4031 3450 [email protected]

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Aditya Birla Nuvo 17,291 13,510 17,150 28 1 2,159 2,006 2,417 8 (11) 919 1,457 1,004 (37) (8) Amtek Auto 4,300 3,403 4,319 26 (0) 1,580 1,311 1,207 21 31 448 424 583 6 (23) Ess Dee Aluminium 1,954 1,588 1,869 23 5 586 358 540 64 9 413 293 381 41 9 India 18,535 13,921 14,967 33 24 1,348 988 1,156 37 17 583 (198) 635 (394) (8) IL&FS Transportation 8,804 NA 7,337 NA 20 2,377 NA 2,207 NA 8 725 NA 616 NA 18 Seamless 4,200 4,053 4,065 4 3 1,672 1,103 1,044 52 60 787 751 757 5 4 Mahindra Holidays 970 1,302 1,414 (25) (31) 207 508 488 (59) (58) 164 322 311 (49) (47) Opto Circuits (I) 3,721 3,345 4,177 11 (11) 1,098 1,110 1,228 (1) (11) 719 661 957 9 (25) Rainbow Papers 1,281 1,099 1,065 17 20 292 212 223 38 31 103 78 104 32 (1) REI Agro 9,555 12,143 9,602 (21) (0) 1,864 1,438 1,985 30 (6) 641 324 814 98 (21) S.Kumars Nationwide 14,443 10,004 13,526 44 7 2,578 2,285 2,602 13 (1) 698 519 797 34 (12) Shiv Vani Oil & Gas 3,650 2,994 3,758 22 (3) 1,762 1,515 1,812 16 (3) 618 470 700 32 (12) Sterlite Technologies 6,451 6,624 5,791 (3) 11 316 1,101 431 (71) (27) 76 722 171 (89) (55) West Coast Paper 3,116 1,714 2,958 82 5 753 297 718 154 5 353 (12) 285 (3,042) 24 Total 98,270 75,700 91,998 30 7 18,591 14,231 18,057 31 3 7,249 5,811 8,114 25 (11)

Ess Dee Aluminium „ Consolidation of India Foils Ltd. with the company and improvement in utilisation capacity should help Ess Dee register a QoQ improvement of 5% in revenues to INR1.9bn. „ In this quarter, we expect net profits to settle at INR413m (+9% QoQ).

Maharashtra Seamless „ The company should register robust sales of seamless pipes on the back of sustained buoyancy in the domestic E&P segment while civic infrastructure projects generate healthy offtake of ERW pipes. „ In this quarter, we expect operating profits of INR1.7bn and net profits of INR787m (+4% YoY).

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India „ We expect the company to clock revenues of INR970m, as it slowly increases the pace towards new memberships while maintaining subscription fees at last year's levels. „ In this quarter, we expect operating margins to settle at 21% with net profits at INR164m.

Opto Circuits (India) „ Opto Circuits (India) should register a jump of 11% in revenues to INR3.7bn, as sales of new products in the invasive and non- invasive space gather momentum. „ EBIDTA margin should settle at 30% (-300bps YoY) on account of the Cardiac Sciences acquisition, and net profits at INR719m (+9% YoY).

Shiv Vani Oil & Gas Exploration Services „ On a YoY basis, the company should register a jump in drilling revenues as it operates its full complement of 40 rigs and 10 seismic crews. We estimate revenues to grow 22% YoY to INR3.7bn. „ EBIDTA margin should drop 300bps to 48% on account of higher expenses on consumables like drilling fluids. „ We estimate company's net profits at INR618m (+32% YoY). ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 33

Sterlite Technologies

„ In this quarter, we expect revenue growth to be subdued as the company executes lower margin orders in the power cables vertical, which were accepted in 2QFY11. „ Margins could drop by 1,200bps to 5%, as poor margins in the power cables segment and flattish offtake in the telecom solutions business affect operations. „ We estimate company's revenues at INR6bn with net profits of INR76m (-90% YoY).

West Coast Paper Mills

„ We have estimated revenues at INR3.1bn (+83% YoY), having assumed 93% throughput for the months of Jan-Mar'10. „ Margins should improve by 680bps YoY to 24.2% due to benefits of scale and low base of the corresponding period. „ We estimate company's net profits at INR353m (vs. a loss of INR12m in 4QFY10).

Rainbow Papers

„ The company should post revenues of INR1.3m (+17% YoY) with margins of 23%. „ We estimate company's net profits at INR103m (+32% YoY).

Havells India

„ We have estimated revenues at INR18.5bn (+33% YoY), having assumed an upward trajectory in domestic sales in addition to an improvement in Sylvania's revenues on account of higher sales in emerging economies of Latin America and Asia. „ Margins should stabilise at 7% as Sylvania continues to rationalise operations. „ We estimate company's net profits at INR583m (vs. a loss of INR198m in 4QFY10).

Amtek Auto

„ On a standalone basis, we estimate revenues of INR4.3bn (+26% YoY), on the back of robust performance of auto sector, wherein despatches have demonstrated an upward trajectory. „ Margins should ease of 200bps to 37% on account of marginally higher metal prices. „ We estimate company's net profits at INR448m (+6% YoY) on account of higher capital charges.

S. Kumars Nationwide

„ SKNL is expected to report a 44% YoY growth in revenues to INR14.4bn in 4QFY11 as a result of robust growth rate in the TWS SBU coupled with a higher contribution from HMX. „ Margins are expected to contract to 17.8% on the back of lower profitability at the international operations i.e. HMX and Leggiuno. Accordingly, operating profits should rise by 13% to INR2.6bn. „ We expect net profits to grow by 35% to INR698m.

REI Agro

„ REI is expected to report a 21% YoY decline in revenues to INR9.6bn in 4QFY11 on account of lower volumes of basmati rice. „ Margins are expected to expand by 770bps to 19.5% leading to operating profits rising by 30% to INR1.9bn. „ Lower interest costs coupled with marginal increase in depreciation should help PBT rise by 100% to INR979m. We expect net profits to grow by 98% to INR641m. ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 34

Results preview summary

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Automobiles Ashok Leyland 36,570 29,390 22,272 24 64 4,241 3,784 1,660 12 155 2,456 2,227 434 10 466 Bajaj Auto 42,247 33,995 41,771 24 1 8,345 7,771 8,493 7 (2) 6,561 5,287 6,671 24 (2) Bosch 18,785 15,804 17,556 19 7 3,351 2,896 1,810 16 85 2,418 2,026 2,105 19 15 Container Corp. 10,488 9,505 9,711 10 8 2,848 2,201 2,807 29 1 2,339 1,727 2,285 35 2 Escorts 9,080 6,756 8,377 34 8 547 661 438 (17) 25 305 415 255 (27) 19 Exide Industries 11,331 10,280 10,491 10 8 1,869 2,152 1,591 (13) 17 1,415 1,345 1,244 5 14 Hero Honda Motors 52,910 40,926 51,182 29 3 5,384 6,820 5,331 (21) 1 4,913 5,988 4,290 (18) 15 M&M 67,038 53,046 61,211 26 10 9,493 8,492 9,238 12 3 6,647 5,739 6,172 16 8 Maruti Suzuki 97,798 82,808 93,261 18 5 7,431 9,673 7,335 (23) 1 5,754 6,566 5,652 (12) 2 Tata Motors 364,956 289,778 316,852 26 15 49,798 31,354 44,886 59 11 28,093 10,786 24,571 160 14 Total 711,202 572,289 632,685 24 12 93,306 75,805 83,588 23 12 60,901 42,104 53,678 45 13 Cement ACC 25,424 22,762 22,277 12 14 5,301 6,552 3,403 (19) 56 2,831 3,929 2,489 (28) 14 Ambuja Cement 22,656 19,902 17,885 14 27 5,069 6,227 3,140 (19) 61 2,890 4,421 2,510 (35) 15 Shree Cement 9,030 9,440 7,804 (4) 16 2,138 3,255 1,583 (34) 35 478 (165) 334 (390) 43 UltraTech Cement 40,865 19,225 37,409 113 9 8,819 4,158 7,334 112 20 3,965 2,285 3,190 74 24 Total 97,975 71,330 85,374 37 15 21,326 20,192 15,461 6 38 10,164 10,470 8,523 (3) 19 FMCG & Retail Asian Paints 21,956 18,768 20,996 17 5 3,408 3,109 3,448 10 (1) 2,106 1,898 2,202 11 (4) Britannia Industries 11,611 9,303 10,800 25 8 661 (116) 482 (671) 37 482 129 373 274 29 Colgate Palmolive 5,876 5,166 5,582 14 5 1,524 1,247 746 22 104 1,236 1,034 662 20 87 Dabur India 10,395 8,488 10,800 22 (4) 1,891 1,620 2,095 17 (10) 1,486 1,331 1,541 12 (4) Godrej Consumer 10,196 5,092 9,804 100 4 1,788 1,075 1,678 66 7 1,296 918 1,188 41 9 Hindustan Unilever 49,200 43,158 50,270 14 (2) 5,027 5,310 6,243 (5) (19) 4,601 4,225 5,870 9 (22) ITC 59,619 50,538 54,535 18 9 17,933 15,401 19,690 16 (9) 12,283 10,282 13,891 19 (12) Jyothy Laboratories 2,233 1,898 1,484 18 50 340 305 167 12 103 287 171 169 68 70 Kansai Nerolac 5,451 4,238 5,601 29 (3) 618 585 685 6 (10) 351 331 416 6 (16) Marico 7,447 6,023 8,177 24 (9) 839 861 1,093 (2) (23) 590 594 776 (1) (24) Nestle India 18,263 14,798 16,710 23 9 3,634 3,040 3,298 20 10 2,349 1,971 2,217 19 6 Pantaloon Retail 28,799 20,576 27,586 40 4 2,477 2,156 2,383 15 4 618 559 472 11 31 Titan Industries 16,624 13,112 19,546 27 (15) 1,557 1,165 1,950 34 (20) 1,091 778 1,408 40 (22) United Breweries 7,943 5,734 6,096 39 30 868 636 659 37 32 484 344 298 41 62 United Spirits 15,804 12,521 15,920 26 (1) 2,325 1,702 2,730 37 (15) 800 714 1,020 12 (22) Total 271,418 219,412 263,907 24 3 44,891 38,096 47,348 18 (5) 30,059 25,278 32,503 19 (8) Industrials ABB 15,286 14,559 20,506 5 (25) 1,146 29 113 3,869 914 779 66 68 1,073 1,052 BGR Energy 17,200 16,598 12,511 4 37 1,978 1,791 1,414 10 40 1,204 1,083 876 11 37 BHEL 162,017 135,591 84,052 19 93 35,443 24,873 18,097 42 96 25,968 19,096 13,382 36 94 L & T 158,376 133,749 113,227 18 40 24,131 20,508 12,385 18 95 16,186 13,374 8,070 21 101 Siemens 27,826 22,261 25,381 25 10 3,617 2,861 3,628 26 (0) 2,416 1,811 2,418 33 (0) Suzlon 58,181 61,220 44,330 (5) 31 7,642 5,350 2,440 43 213 3,053 (1,970) (2,540) (255) (220) Tecpro Systems 10,123 7,418 4,620 36 119 2,025 1,783 516 14 293 1,162 898 187 30 520 Total 449,009 391,395 304,627 15 47 75,982 57,194 38,592 33 97 50,769 34,358 22,461 48 126 Information Technology Infosys 74,742 59,440 71,060 26 5 25,596 20,220 23,640 27 8 18,502 16,170 17,800 14 4 TCS 102,440 77,380 96,630 32 6 33,220 23,390 29,000 42 15 25,330 20,010 23,700 27 7 Wipro 81,738 70,023 78,202 17 5 17,572 15,094 16,344 16 8 13,421 12,361 13,259 9 1 CMC 3,014 2,365 2,783 27 8 999 917 879 9 14 477 443 454 8 5 Patni 1,971 2,098 1,848 (6) 7 386 618 394 (38) (2) 208 193 214 8 (3) Persistent 2,021 1,717 1,949 18 4 461 383 428 20 8 362 397 362 (9) - Total 265,926 213,023 252,472 25 5 78,234 60,622 70,685 29 11 58,300 49,574 55,789 18 5 ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 35

Results preview summary

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Media IBN 18 2,196 1,688 2,362 30 (7) 374 24 321 1,455 16 213 (225) 198 (195) 8 Den Networks 2,678 2,463 2,644 9 1 294 270 265 9 11 130 170 89 (24) 47 Dish TV 4,076 3,031 3,732 34 9 671 349 666 93 1 (775) (598) (443) 30 75 Hathway Cable 2,261 NA 2,271 NA (0) 425 NA 415 NA 2 (160) NA - NA NA Sun TV Network 5,700 3,910 5,970 46 (5) 3,581 3,309 5,018 8 (29) 2,049 1,651 2,255 24 (9) UTV Software Comm 2,674 1,306 2,559 105 4 684 407 534 68 28 366 305 400 20 (9) Zee Entertainment 7,501 6,493 7,549 16 (1) 1,699 1,836 1,541 (7) 10 1,220 1,263 1,509 (3) (19) Total 27,085 18,891 27,087 43 (0) 7,728 6,195 8,761 25 (12) 3,042 2,566 4,007 19 (24) Metals Graphite India 3,360 3,386 3,375 (1) (0) 739 982 732 (25) 1 425 556 442 (24) (4) Hindalco Industries 68,841 54,044 59,746 27 15 9,117 8,354 7,401 9 23 5,960 6,639 4,603 (10) 29 Hindustan Zinc 29,282 24,985 26,015 17 13 17,182 15,548 14,318 11 20 14,746 12,920 12,428 14 19 Monnet Ispat & Energy 3,981 4,384 3,471 (9) 15 1,185 1,284 1,109 (8) 7 684 725 702 (6) (3) NALCO 18,565 16,260 14,432 14 29 5,753 5,411 3,896 6 48 3,935 3,915 2,560 1 54 Prakash Industries 4,493 4,643 3,823 (3) 18 820 990 717 (17) 14 500 737 551 (32) (9) Sterlite Industries 86,543 71,108 83,325 22 4 26,070 20,685 19,787 26 32 13,263 13,809 11,011 (4) 20 JSPL 32,665 31,756 31,740 3 3 17,449 14,587 15,987 20 9 11,101 9,634 9,511 15 17 JSW Steel 64,684 54,807 60,026 18 8 13,039 13,234 10,164 (1) 28 4,555 6,110 2,917 (25) 56 Sesa Goa 33,000 28,156 24,987 17 32 18,307 15,030 12,306 22 49 14,505 12,129 10,653 20 36 125,150 122,298 113,128 2 11 28,150 30,971 17,957 (9) 57 17,788 20,849 11,075 (15) 61 Tata Steel (Standalone) 80,323 73,394 73,974 9 9 30,811 31,307 28,205 (2) 9 16,207 21,623 15,135 (25) 7 Tata Steel (Consolidated) 327,731 275,038 290,895 19 13 42,562 47,502 34,246 (10) 24 14,115 32,410 9,489 (56) 49 Total 798,295 690,863 714,962 16 12 180,373 174,575 138,620 3 30 101,577 120,433 75,942 (16) 34 Oil & Gas BPCL 450,083 375,509 366,655 20 23 13,280 11,272 7,284 18 82 6,628 17,897 1,874 (63) 254 Essar Oil 147,933 104,540 122,330 42 21 7,682 3,440 7,590 123 1 2,873 1,800 2,730 60 5 GAIL India 88,438 65,221 83,650 36 6 15,618 13,637 13,331 15 17 9,630 9,108 9,676 6 (0) HPCL 414,560 313,213 339,025 32 22 10,745 13,139 6,267 (18) 71 3,971 7,575 2,110 (48) 88 IOC 989,914 772,299 803,332 28 23 44,990 72,986 27,275 (38) 65 19,128 55,568 16,348 (66) 17 24,237 18,321 23,887 32 1 11,006 6,658 12,281 65 (10) 6,849 4,310 9,080 59 (25) ONGC 173,943 147,133 185864 18 (6) 101,656 81,290 113,138 25 (10) 45,639 37,376 57,618 22 (21) Petronet LNG 38,255 23,855 36,276 60 5 3,265 2,262 3,456 44 (6) 1,599 973 1,708 64 (6) Reliance Industries 728,290 575,700 597,890 27 22 100,787 91,360 95,450 10 6 54,239 47,100 51,360 15 6 Total 3,055,652 2,395,791 2,558,908 28 19 309,030 296,044 286,073 4 8 150,556 181,707 152,504 (17) (1) Pharma Aurobindo Pharma 10,780 9,128 11,922 18 (10) 3,245 2,724 3,195 19 2 2,461 2,068 1,887 19 30 Cadila Healthcare 10,820 8,466 11,668 28 (7) 2,528 1,894 2,562 34 (1) 1,636 1,188 1,620 38 1 Indoco Remedies 1,226 1,105 1,155 11 6 151 126 145 20 4 85 82 88 4 (3) Ipca Laboratories 4,438 3,817 4,664 16 (5) 918 814 910 13 1 573 499 527 15 9 Lupin 15,616 13,282 15,102 18 3 3,921 2,924 2,973 34 32 2,669 2,206 2,240 21 19 Sun Pharma 11,690 10,157 16011 15 (27) 2,260 1,941 3510 16 (36) 2,406 2,635 2606 (9) (8) Jubilant Lifesciences 7,984 6,048 8,690 32 (8) 1,720 1,585 1,322 8 30 1,143 920 442 24 159 Total 62,553 52,002 69,211 20 (10) 14,743 12,009 14,616 23 1 10,973 9,599 9,411 14 17 Real Estate DLF 25,240 19,944 24,799 27 2 11,942 10,000 11,780 19 1 4,950 4,264 4,657 16 6 DB Realty 2,323 NA 2,733 NA (15) 999 NA 1,191 NA (16) 754 NA 1,087 NA (31) HDIL 4,160 4,341 4,554 (4) (9) 2,413 2,271 2,665 6 (9) 2,166 1,778 2,519 22 (14) IBREL 1,566 607 3,997 158 (61) 477 (120) 1,229 (497) (61) 398 9 766 4,556 (48) Phoenix Mills 464 345 451 35 3 338 198 327 71 3 245 157 238 56 3 Sobha Developers 3,621 4,008 3629 (10) (0) 1,072 965 820 11 31 493 557 490 (11) 1 Unitech 7,707 11,074 6,598 (30) 17 2,769 2,475 2,088 12 33 1,557 1,634 1,114 (5) 40 Total (exDBRealty) 45,080 40,319 46,760 12 (4) 20,010 15,789 20,099 27 (0) 10,564 8,399 10,870 26 (3) ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 36

Results preview summary

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Shipping and Logistics GE Shipping 5,206 7,667 5,560 (32) (6) 1,949 3,157 2,023 (38) (4) 601 2,113 622 (72) (3) Essar Shipping 8,991 8,516 8,190 6 10 3,009 2,676 2,986 12 1 190 745 265 (74) (28) Mercator Lines 7,561 4,820 7,777 57 (3) 1,100 1,347 1,380 (18) (20) (279) 2 38 (14,499) (826) Great Offshore 2,667 2,739 1,978 (3) 35 1,296 1,357 763 (4) 70 466 731 18 (36) 2,447 Mundra Port and SEZ 5,318 4,205 4,508 26 18 3,525 2,521 3,098 40 14 2,609 1,922 2,285 36 14 Total 29,743 27,948 28,013 6 6 10,879 11,057 10,250 (2) 6 3,586 5,512 3,229 (35) 11 Sugar Balrampur Chini Mills 4,887 4,705 5,315 4 (8) 875 814 724 7 21 320 276 234 16 37 Shree Renuka Sugars 15,671 17,814 22,470 (12) (30) 3,084 3,545 3,005 (13) 3 681 2,242 664 (70) 3 Triveni Engineering 5,840 5,949 5,921 (2) (1) 1,049 508 700 107 50 457 143 239 220 91 Total 26,399 28,468 33,706 (7) (22) 5,008 4,867 4,429 3 13 1,458 2,660 1,136 (45) 28 Utilities & infrastructure CESC 8,843 8,100 9,390 9 (6) 2,577 2,020 2,530 28 2 1,121 1,059 1,100 6 2 Lanco Infratech 25,228 23,419 15,614 8 62 5,607 5,990 4,799 (6) 17 1,404 1,133 1,640 24 (14) Navabharat Ventures 2,331 3,153 2,466 (26) (5) 693 1,234 556 (44) 25 614 1,100 493 (44) 25 NTPC 143,983 123,534 134,965 17 7 36,488 26,657 38,383 37 (5) 21,503 20,177 23,769 7 (10) Power Grid 26,273 22,307 20,521 18 28 21,700 18,207 17274 19 26 7,240 7,559 5912 (4) 22 PTC 17,280 12,430 17,575 39 (2) 215 90 406 138 (47) 232 141 388 65 (40) Reliance Infrastructure 34,176 26,439 26,176 29 31 3,110 2,714 2,470 15 26 2,650 1,657 2,511 60 6 Tata Power 66,679 53,716 42,014 24 59 12,720 13,498 10,546 (6) 21 7,746 6,603 4,414 17 76 Total 324,794 273,098 268,721 19 21 83,109 70,410 76,965 18 8 42,511 39,429 40,227 8 6 Grand Total 6,529,740 5,277,440 5,636,216 24 16 1,169,392 1,039,815 1,044,768 12 12 657,169 624,684 584,939 5 12 Grand Total 6,263,401 5,070,528 5,378,431 24 16 963,212 857,085 833,544 12 16 541,711 537,899 478,395 1 13 Ex- FINANCIALS Grand Total 5,465,107 4,379,665 4,663,469 25 17 782,838 682,510 694,924 15 13 440,133 417,466 402,452 5 9 Ex - Metals Grand Total 3,207,749 2,674,737 2,819,523 20 14 654,182 561,042 547,471 17 19 391,154 356,193 325,891 10 20 Ex - Oil & Gas Grand Total 2,409,454 1,983,874 2,104,561 21 14 473,808 386,466 408,851 23 16 289,577 235,760 249,949 23 16 Ex - Metals and Oil & Gas

Company Net Interest Income Chg (%) Pre Provision Profits Chg (%) Net Income Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ FINANCIALS Axis Bank 17,927 14,601 17,331 23 3 17,687 13,838 16,585 28 7 9,419 7,649 8,914 23 6 Bajaj Auto Finance 2,800 1,658 2,562 69 9 1,650 1,240 1,600 33 3 791 252 764 214 3 Bank of Baroda 23,127 17,450 22,923 33 1 17,271 16,288 18,512 6 (7) 10,436 9,063 10,689 15 (2) HDFC 11,379 11,282 10,277 1 11 12,579 12,819 12,279 (2) 2 9,513 9,264 8,909 3 7 HDFC Bank 28,048 23,514 27,767 19 1 20,599 16,944 20,727 22 (1) 10,737 8,366 10,878 28 (1) ICICI Bank 24,714 20,349 23,117 21 7 26,599 23,989 23,426 11 14 15,709 10,056 14,370 56 9 LIC Housing Finance 3,080 2,980 3,522 3 (13) 2,924 2,857 4,891 2 (40) 2,205 2,136 2,135 3 3 Punjab National Bank 32,285 24,980 32,033 29 1 23,563 23,325 23,499 1 0 12,980 11,350 10,898 14 19 Shriram Transport Finance 8,952 6,483 8,367 38 7 6,547 5,442 6,338 20 3 3,430 2,644 3,000 30 14 State Bank Of India 94,498 67,215 90,498 41 4 61,757 51,939 67,645 19 (9) 31,391 18,670 28,281 68 11 Union Bank 16,199 13,961 16,158 16 0 11,799 11,475 12,611 3 (6) 6,873 5,935 5,796 16 19 Yes Bank 3,328 2,442 3,232 36 3 3,204 2,576 3,113 24 3 1,976 1,400 1,911 41 3 Total 266,339 206,912 257,785 29 3 206,180 182,730 211,225 13 (2) 115,459 86,784 106,544 33 8 ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED FROM THE RESEARCH DESK 8 APRIL 2011 | 37

Results preview summary

Company Sales Chg (%) EBITDA Chg (%) Net Profit Chg (%) Quarter Ending Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Mar-11 Mar-10 Dec-10 YoY QoQ Miscellaneous Aditya Birla Nuvo 17,291 13,510 17,150 28 1 2,159 2,006 2,417 8 (11) 919 1,457 1,004 (37) (8) Amtek Auto 4,300 3,403 4,319 26 (0) 1,580 1,311 1,207 21 31 448 424 583 6 (23) Ess Dee Aluminium 1,954 1,588 1,869 23 5 586 358 540 64 9 413 293 381 41 9 Havells India 18,535 13,921 14,967 33 24 1,348 988 1,156 37 17 583 (198) 635 (394) (8) IL&FS Transportation 8,804 NA 7,337 NA 20 2,377 NA 2,207 NA 8 725 NA 616 NA 18 Maharashtra Seamless 4,200 4,053 4,065 4 3 1,672 1,103 1,044 52 60 787 751 757 5 4 Mahindra Holidays 970 1,302 1,414 (25) (31) 207 508 488 (59) (58) 164 322 311 (49) (47) Opto Circuits (I) 3,721 3,345 4,177 11 (11) 1,098 1,110 1,228 (1) (11) 719 661 957 9 (25) Rainbow Papers 1,281 1,099 1,065 17 20 292 212 223 38 31 103 78 104 32 (1) REI Agro 9,555 12,143 9,602 (21) (0) 1,864 1,438 1,985 30 (6) 641 324 814 98 (21) S.Kumars Nationwide 14,443 10,004 13,526 44 7 2,578 2,285 2,602 13 (1) 698 519 797 34 (12) Shiv Vani Oil & Gas 3,650 2,994 3,758 22 (3) 1,762 1,515 1,812 16 (3) 618 470 700 32 (12) Sterlite Technologies 6,451 6,624 5,791 (3) 11 316 1,101 431 (71) (27) 76 722 171 (89) (55) West Coast Paper 3,116 1,714 2,958 82 5 753 297 718 154 5 353 (12) 285 (3,042) 24 Total 98,270 75,700 91,998 30 7 18,591 14,231 18,057 31 3 7,249 5,811 8,114 25 (11) ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED 8 APRIL 2011 | 38

Valuation Guide

Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div Yld (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%) (INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 1m 12m AUTOMOBILES Ashok Leyland BUY 58 88 53 77 5.9 8.4 4.4 6.3 13.0 9.2 8.8 6.9 1.7 3.1 18.2 19.9 13 4 Bajaj Auto BUY 1,440 1,585 10 417 26.3 30.6 91.0 105.6 15.8 13.6 12.6 11.5 6.1 2.1 44.9 50.5 5 39 Bosch BUY 6,642 7,360 11 209 8.6 10.5 273.5 334.5 24.3 19.9 18.5 15.0 4.2 0.8 21.1 27.4 10 37 Exide Industries BUY 147 177 20 125 6.0 7.5 7.1 8.8 20.7 16.7 14.5 11.6 3.7 0.7 21.9 32.3 5 20 Escorts BUY 145 180 24 15 1.3 1.9 12.4 18.0 11.7 8.1 6.5 4.9 0.8 1.6 9.7 12.0 24 (11) Hero Honda Motors HOLD 1,695 1,614 (5) 338 19.0 21.5 99.2 107.6 17.1 15.8 17.5 16.7 8.5 2.2 36.7 45.5 11 (14) Mahindra & Mahindra BUY 733 825 13 450 25.7 31.2 44.5 50.8 16.5 14.4 13.2 10.9 3.7 1.7 26.0 31.7 11 39 Maruti Suzuki BUY 1,278 1,450 13 369 22.8 25.8 76.8 89.2 16.6 14.3 12.1 10.6 2.3 0.6 15.9 23.2 1 (9) Tata Motors BUY 1,291 1,668 29 762 92.3 109.7 145.8 173.3 8.9 7.4 5.8 4.8 3.1 1.2 41.1 32.68 14 62 CEMENT ACC UR 1,129 UR NA 212 10.8 12.6 57.3 66.9 19.7 16.9 11.9 9.6 2.9 2.0 24.6 18.1 16 16 UR 151 UR NA 232 12.6 13.9 8.1 9.1 18.7 16.7 11.5 9.1 2.8 1.5 17.7 23.1 23 27 HeidelbergCement India BUY 48 60 25 11 1.1 1.3 4.8 5.8 10.0 8.3 8.3 5.3 1.0 - 13.2 25.4 41 (24) JK Lakshmi Cement BUY 56 85 52 7 1.4 1.7 11.5 14.1 4.9 4.0 4.2 4.0 0.5 3.6 14.3 19.7 23 (26) Shree Cements BUY 1,950 1,902 (2) 68 4.5 6.1 128.4 176.1 15.2 11.1 7.2 6.2 2.4 0.6 24.3 19.2 13 (17) Ultratech Cements HOLD 1,101 1,054 (4) 302 14.2 18.7 51.9 68.2 21.2 16.1 10.3 8.1 2.4 0.5 16.1 19.3 9 (4) DIVERSIFIED Aditya Birla Nuvo BUY 878 990 13 100 3.4 3.7 29.9 32.6 29.4 26.9 15.8 14.4 1.8 0.4 6.7 7.7 16 (8) FMCG & RETAIL Asian Paints HOLD 2,551 2,684 5 245 9.2 10.8 90.6 107.4 28.2 23.8 17.8 15.0 9.6 2.2 40.5 49.2 2 25 Britannia Industries HOLD 368 330 (10) 44 1.5 2.3 12.7 19.5 29.0 18.9 21.7 13.6 7.1 2.2 37.4 26.7 6 11 Colgate Palmolive India HOLD 846 836 (1) 115 4.3 4.8 31.3 35.1 27.0 24.1 22.2 18.8 23.5 2.9 105.6 111.3 2 19 Dabur India HOLD 100 99 (1) 174 5.7 7.1 3.3 4.1 30.7 24.4 23.6 18.1 8.5 1.6 33.8 27.2 (1) 20 HOLD 390 400 3 126 4.8 5.8 14.9 18.0 26.1 21.7 21.8 17.9 6.2 1.7 35.6 38.7 4 39 Hindustan Unilever HOLD 276 286 4 596 21.1 24.8 9.7 11.4 28.6 24.3 24.6 20.9 13.8 3.0 73.2 69.1 (2) 23 ITC BUY 183 196 7 1,413 49.3 62.2 6.5 8.1 28.3 22.4 19.6 15.1 7.1 1.9 29.9 39.1 6 38 Jyothy Laboratories BUY 218 240 10 18 0.9 1.1 11.2 14.2 19.5 15.4 16.0 13.6 2.6 2.5 14.0 14.3 (4) 25 Kansai Nerolac HOLD 860 844 (2) 46 2.0 2.4 36.4 44.3 23.6 19.4 13.5 11.1 4.5 1.7 23.4 29.7 13 29 Marico HOLD 139 125 (10) 85 2.9 3.4 4.7 5.6 29.3 24.7 21.3 17.1 7.2 0.5 32.2 24.3 6 22 Nestle India HOLD 3,709 3,781 2 358 8.4 10.9 86.8 113.1 42.7 32.8 28.4 22.1 34.5 2.2 97.8 131.2 (1) 35 Pantaloon Retail BUY 295 459 56 62 2.3 3.4 10.4 14.7 28.2 20.0 8.9 6.9 1.9 0.5 9.5 12.9 11 (26) Titan Industries UR 3,992 UR NA 177 4.6 5.9 103.4 132.4 38.6 30.2 27.5 21.7 11.2 0.6 41.9 50.8 17 112 United Breweries HOLD 477 403 (16) 115 1.7 2.5 6.9 10.5 68.9 45.5 33.2 24.7 2.0 0.1 12.0 10.4 (2) 143 United Spirits HOLD 1,104 1,029 (7) 144 3.4 5.1 28.0 41.3 39.4 26.7 18.0 13.3 2.4 0.2 8.9 11.6 2 (17) INFRASTRUCTURE IL&FS TransportationNetworks BUY 246 330 34 48 4.2 5.0 21.5 26.0 11.5 9.5 9.0 7.3 1.9 1.2 20.0 13.8 25 (16) Mundra Port And SEZ BUY 156 164 5 312 8.2 11.1 3.9 5.4 39.5 28.8 27.4 18.4 6.4 0.5 19.4 14.6 18 5 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Infosys Technologies HOLD 3,246 3,404 5 1,864 68.8 83.0 120.4 145.2 27.0 22.3 21.2 16.1 5.7 1.2 26.0 32.5 7 24 Patni Computers Systems BUY 476 625 31 64 6.5 7.5 48.1 55.6 9.9 8.6 6.0 5.2 1.2 0.6 13.9 16.9 6 (1) Persistent Systems BUY 413 525 27 17 1.3 1.7 33.7 43.7 12.3 9.4 9.1 5.7 1.7 2.2 18.4 22.1 6 NA Tata Consultacy Services BUY 1,199 1,288 7 2,347 89.8 110.3 45.9 56.3 26.1 21.3 19.9 13.6 9.5 2.8 44.5 54.4 8 52 Wipro HOLD 472 510 8 1,160 56.1 - 23.1 - 20.5 - 15.8 - - - - - 6 10 KPIT Cummins BUY 175 196 12 14 1.0 1.2 11.8 14.1 14.8 12.4 8.6 6.9 2.1 0.6 17.1 16.8 16 48 MEDIA Den Networks BUY 92 164 79 12 0.4 0.7 3.2 5.1 28.2 18.0 9.5 6.5 1.6 - 8.9 11.5 (8) (56) Dish TV India BUY 67 86 28 71 (2.3) (1.0) (2.2) (0.9) (31.0) (72.9) 36.8 15.4 4.4 - (6.0) 0.6 12 74 Hathway Cable & Datacom BUY 110 183 67 16 (0.2) 0.2 (1.2) 1.4 (90.1) 77.5 9.6 7.1 1.8 - 2.3 4.4 5 NA IBN 18 BUY 104 146 40 25 0.4 1.3 1.1 3.5 92.1 29.5 21.7 12.9 6.1 - 20.7 15.5 9 4 Sun TV Network BUY 449 624 39 177 6.6 8.9 17.0 22.5 26.4 19.9 12.0 9.6 6.1 1.5 30.6 41.2 9 4 UTV Software Communications BUY 659 683 4 27 1.3 1.7 32.4 42.5 20.3 15.5 18.2 12.9 2.5 - 16.0 12.4 23 42 Zee Entertainment Enterprises HOLD 125 123 (2) 122 5.5 6.0 5.6 6.2 22.4 20.3 17.3 14.0 2.7 1.6 13.3 26.7 (1) (8) ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED 8 APRIL 2011 | 39

Valuation Guide

Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div Yld (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%) (INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 1m 12m METALS Graphite India BUY 97 106 10 19 1.6 2.0 8.4 10.3 11.5 9.4 6.8 6.0 1.1 3.1 12.7 17.7 13 8 Hindalco Industries BUY 216 275 27 414 32.5 39.0 17.0 20.4 12.7 10.6 6.1 6.1 2.2 0.8 13.9 12.9 3 17 Hindustan Zinc UR 139 UR NA 589 41.7 48.6 9.9 11.5 14.1 12.1 9.0 6.6 2.2 0.4 18 18 7 11 Jindal Steel & Power UR 706 766 8 660 43.7 48.3 46.1 50.9 15.3 13.9 10.5 9.0 3.8 0.6 28 17 6 (0) JSW Steel HOLD 1,001 985 (2) 223 14.2 17.0 60.6 67.9 16.5 14.7 8.1 6.1 1.3 1.0 8.9 9.9 9 (20) Monnet Ispat BUY 529 610 15 34 2.5 3.5 43.0 61.0 12.3 8.7 10.8 8.5 1.3 0.9 16.4 13.9 (3) 21 Prakash Industries BUY 95 221 133 13 2.2 2.3 16.3 17.0 5.8 5.6 4.5 4.2 0.7 - 12.5 13.6 23 (59) Sesa Goa BUY 316 348 10 271 42.0 34.4 47.2 38.7 6.7 8.2 3.0 3.1 1.7 1.0 20.4 25.9 16 (34) Steel Authority of India HOLD 174 168 (3) 718 52.8 53.1 12.8 12.9 13.6 13.5 8.4 8.8 1.8 1.9 13.0 14.0 15 (32) Sterlite Industries HOLD 175 183 5 587 44.4 82.1 13.2 24.4 13.2 7.2 6.5 3.4 1.2 1.1 17.1 17.0 5 (20) TATA Steel BUY 638 742 16 612 62.2 69.4 64.1 71.5 10.0 8.9 6.8 5.8 1.5 1.3 16.9 13.2 6 (7) OIL & GAS Corp. BUY 614 667 9 222 12.1 16.0 41.6 54.1 14.8 11.3 15.4 12.1 1.3 1.7 11 5.9 10 21 Essar oil BUY 133 171 29 181 6.3 9.1 4.6 6.7 28.7 19.9 10.6 8.6 2.9 - 14 11.4 19 (9) GAIL India BUY 473 519 10 600 39.3 43.1 31.0 34.0 15.3 13.9 9.8 9.1 2.6 1.6 18.8 21.4 7 10 Hindustan Petroluem Corp. BUY 367 395 8 124 9.7 10.0 28.5 29.5 12.9 12.4 12.2 11.1 1.0 3.3 7.9 5.2 15 19 Indian Oil Company BUY 336 423 26 815 81.2 78.8 34.3 33.3 9.8 10.1 8.5 8.3 1.3 4.0 13.0 11.6 9 14 Oil India BUY 1,337 1,622 21 321 30.8 33.8 128.2 140.7 10.4 9.5 5.0 4.4 1.8 2.5 18.5 22.1 8 16 Oil & Natural Gas Corp. BUY 292 365 25 2,495 210.4 226.8 28.0 30.2 10.4 9.7 5.6 5.1 2.2 2.7 19.7 23.2 11 8 Petronet LNG BUY 128 143 11 96 5.0 7.2 6.7 9.6 19.2 13.4 12.0 9.8 3.1 1.9 23.4 16.3 13 59 Reliance Industries BUY 1,042 1,102 6 3,411 199.8 254.6 61.1 77.8 17.1 13.4 10.3 8.1 1.9 0.8 14.0 12.9 7 (8) PHARMACEUTICALS Aurobindo Pharma BUY 201 355 76 59 6.3 7.9 21.7 27.3 9.3 7.4 7.1 5.6 1.9 0.5 22.3 28.5 12 6 Cadila Healthcare BUY 829 867 5 170 6.5 8.1 32.0 39.4 25.9 21.0 17.0 13.0 5.6 0.2 22.3 30.7 10 44 Indoco Remedies BUY 443 505 14 5 0.5 0.8 39.2 63.1 11.3 7.0 7.7 4.5 1.3 3.3 19.3 20.6 11 14 Ipca Laboatories BUY 308 394 28 39 2.4 3.4 19.2 27.3 16.0 11.3 10.9 7.8 2.7 - 18.5 26.8 17 17 Lupin BUY 408 514 26 182 8.8 10.9 19.9 24.5 20.5 16.6 14.7 11.5 4.2 0.6 29.1 28.7 4 25 Jubilant Lifesciences UR 182 UR NA 29 2.3 2.8 14.2 17.4 12.8 10.5 10.2 8.0 5.7 0.8 9.5 11.5 11 (47) Sun Pharma BUY 441 527 19 454 14.9 18.2 15.0 20.9 29.5 21.1 23.0 16.3 4.1 0.6 22.4 21.4 6 23 REAL ESTATE D B Realty UR 113 UR NA 27 3.8 4.8 15.6 19.6 7.2 5.7 6.1 4.0 0.7 - 12.2 16.4 (0) NA DLF BUY 270 294 9 458 17.6 18.7 10.4 11.0 26.0 24.5 15.7 15.2 1.5 - 6.0 6.8 23 (19) HDIL HOLD 196 196 0 81 7.3 8.3 17.7 18.9 11.1 10.4 10.0 8.0 0.8 - 7.8 8.4 22 (35) Indiabulls Real Estate BUY 143 166 16 58 2.7 4.0 6.7 9.2 21.4 15.5 19.5 17.3 0.6 - 3.6 2.7 33 (10) Phoenix Mills BUY 200 274 37 29 0.9 1.5 6.0 10.2 33.1 19.5 28.1 14.0 1.6 0.6 8.2 7.2 15 4 Sobha Developers BUY 324 400 23 32 1.9 2.3 19.5 23.0 16.6 14.1 12.7 11.0 1.5 0.9 10.9 9.5 22 8 Unitech UR 48 UR NA 125 8.4 10.9 3.2 4.2 15.0 11.5 15.4 10.7 1.0 - 8.4 8.5 35 (38) SHIPPING & LOGISTICS Container Corp. of India UR 1,227 UR NA 159 8.6 10.1 66.4 77.4 18.5 15.9 12.6 10.4 2.8 1.6 17.7 25.0 4 (13) Essar Shipping Ports & LogisticsBUY 113 173 54 69 0.4 3.7 0.6 6.0 174.0 18.8 15.0 10.2 0.8 - 4.7 9.0 23 15 Great Eastern Shipping Co BUY 292 333 14 44 3.8 4.8 25.1 31.7 11.6 9.2 10.2 9.1 0.7 2.7 7.6 6.4 12 (8) Great Offshore BUY 290 457 58 11 1.4 2.0 38.8 53.8 7.5 5.4 7.9 5.8 0.8 1.4 14.1 9.5 24 (34) Mercator Lines BUY 45 65 43 11 0.9 1.5 3.7 5.7 12.3 8.0 6.7 6.0 0.6 2.2 6.3 6.3 26 (26) SUGAR Balrampur Chini Mills BUY 77 87 13 20 2.0 2.4 7.6 9.2 10.1 8.4 6.2 5.1 1.2 1.3 15.6 15.7 12 (16) Shree Renuka Sugars BUY 77 117 52 52 6.4 7.0 9.6 10.5 8.0 8.0 5.6 4.6 1.5 1.3 21.9 20.5 7 10 Triveni Engineering & Ind BUY 103 103 (0) 27 0.9 2.0 3.5 7.6 29.3 13.6 16.0 8.0 2.4 1.2 9.5 8.4 (1) (24) ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING LIMITED 8 APRIL 2011 | 40

Valuation Guide

Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div Yld (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%) (INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 1m 12m UTILITIES & INDUSTRIALS ABB SELL 806 533 (34) 171 1.7 3.8 8.0 17.9 100.9 45.1 63.1 27.8 5.8 0.1 12.9 18.0 13 (4) Adani Power UR 120 UR NA 262 10.6 21.8 4.9 10.0 24.6 12.0 28.0 12.5 2.7 - 22.8 8.7 10 1 BGR BUY 536 779 45 39 3.1 4.0 43.6 55.7 12.3 9.6 6.9 7.7 3.2 2.6 37.5 24.0 24 (2) Bharat Heavy Electricals BUY 2,195 2,601 19 1,075 57.3 67.5 117.0 137.8 18.8 15.9 12.7 10.6 4.4 1.7 27.6 34.4 8 (13) CESC BUY 318 391 23 40 2.5 3.0 20.1 23.9 15.8 13.3 13.1 14.3 0.8 1.9 8.6 3.1 2 (18) Lanco Infrastructure BUY 45 54 22 107 5.7 7.6 2.4 3.2 18.7 13.9 5.8 3.4 2.2 - 17.3 11.4 23 (18) Larsen & Toubro BUY 1,670 1,878 13 1,016 41.1 53.1 68.2 88.2 24.5 18.9 18.7 14.7 3.4 0.9 18.1 12.2 6 1 NTPC SELL 186 186 (0) 1,535 90.0 93.3 10.9 11.3 17.1 16.4 12.5 11.5 2.1 2.5 12.8 10.4 3 (12) Power Grid BUY 105 116 11 486 26.7 30.1 5.8 6.5 18.2 16.1 11.5 10.4 2.0 1.5 12.3 8.3 7 (5) PTC India BUY 95 115 21 28 1.1 1.1 3.9 3.9 24.4 24.6 26.9 24.7 1.2 1.6 6.8 4.7 6 (16) Reliance Infrastructure BUY 693 1,065 54 185 15.0 16.0 65.6 70.2 10.6 9.9 17.9 17.3 0.7 3.5 6.4 2.0 17 (37) Siemens BUY 895 861 (4) 305 10.5 12.7 31.3 37.6 28.6 23.8 20.4 17.3 21.4 0.8 24.2 34.5 5 21

Suzlon Energy BUY 53 61 15 95 (4.9) 6.2 (2.6) 3.3 (20.4) 16.0 20.3 8.4 1.5 1.1 9.2 9.0 15 (29) Tata Power HOLD 1,320 1,253 (5) 313 18.1 24.0 73.5 97.2 18.0 13.6 8.9 6.8 2.1 1.2 15.1 5.4 7 (4) Tecpro Systems BUY 304 408 34 15 1.4 1.9 27.9 37.1 10.9 10.9 4.1 2.7 2.3 1.5 22.3 21.5 14 NA

Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) NNPA Ratio (%) P/AdjBV (x) Div Yld (%) RoE (%) RoA (%) Absolute (%) (INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY12 1m 12m FINANCIALS Axis Bank BUY 1,446 1,580 9 594 33 40 82 98 17.7 14.8 0.4 0.4 3.2 1.2 19.6 1.6 13 24 Bajaj Auto Finance BUY 720 945 31 26 2 3 59 72 24.4 10.0 5.3 9.5 2.5 0.1 16.8 3.2 15 114 HDFC HOLD 716 714 (0) 1050 33 38 23 27 30.9 26.7 0.4 0.4 6.1 1.3 21.0 2.7 7 28 HDFC Bank BUY 2,355 2,310 (2) 1095 39 49 86 107 27.5 22.0 0.6 0.6 4.6 0.7 18.4 1.6 8 22 ICICI Bank BUY 1,104 1,320 20 1272 53 67 47 60 23.4 18.4 1.4 1.3 2.6 1.2 11.6 1.5 9 12 LIC Housing Finance UR 231 UR NA 110 9 10 19 22 12.5 10.7 0.4 0.2 3.1 1.6 23.1 1.9 19 30 Punjab National Bank BUY 1,199 1,340 12 378 45 55 144 173 8.3 6.9 0.7 0.7 2.0 0.2 23.2 1.4 12 18 Shriram Transprt finance BUY 815 950 17 184 6 6 57 73 14.4 11.1 0.9 0.8 5.0 1.5 26.4 4.1 4 49 State Bank Of India BUY 2,813 3,214 14 1786 114 143 179 203 15.7 13.8 1.2 1.0 2.8 1.5 15.8 1.1 7 33 YES Bank BUY 330 330 (0) 115 7 8 21 25 15.6 13.4 0.1 0.1 3.0 - 19.9 1.3 22 27 Bank of Baroda BUY 980 1,063 8 357 40 45 109 114 9.0 8.6 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.2 21.0 1.2 9 46 Union Bank of India BUY 351 407 16 177 22 29 43 53 8.2 6.6 1.1 1.0 2.0 1.7 23.0 1.1 8 15

Company Reco CMP TP Return M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Div Yld (%) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%) (INR) (INR) (%) (INRbn) FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY11 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 FY12 1m 12m MISCELLANEOUS Amtek Auto BUY 160 177 11 35 1.6 4.0 6.9 17.2 23.2 9.3 6.6 5.4 0.7 1.3 7.4 8.9 45 45 Ess Dee Aluminium BUY 437 540 23 14 1.5 1.7 52.8 61.1 8.3 7.2 7.2 5.8 1.7 0.5 27.3 25.0 7 2 Gayatri Projects BUY 241 494 105 3 0.7 0.9 47.9 64.6 5.0 3.7 3.4 2.9 0.7 1.9 19.4 20.7 12 (43) Havell's India BUY 390 466 19 49 3.1 4.0 24.8 32.0 15.8 12.2 8.8 6.6 4.8 0.8 47.4 40.8 15 27 Maharashtra Seamless BUY 364 519 43 26 3.2 3.9 45.6 54.7 8.0 6.7 4.9 3.6 0.9 1.7 14.1 21.5 8 (2) Mahindra Holidays BUY 389 509 31 33 0.8 1.3 10.1 15.4 38.5 25.3 27.1 16.5 5.8 0.5 24.7 12.4 10 (28) Nava Bharat Ventures BUY 282 382 36 22 3.0 3.7 33.4 40.9 8.4 6.9 6.4 7.8 1.2 2.6 17.3 10.5 25 (32) Opto Circuits BUY 302 327 8 56 3.6 5.1 19.2 27.3 15.7 11.1 12.6 9.2 3.2 1.5 32.2 26.5 19 36 Rainbow Papers BUY 63 75 19 6 0.4 0.9 4.1 10.5 15.3 6.0 10.5 4.9 1.8 3.2 33.4 21.3 20 99 S Kumars Nationwide BUY 64 89 40 18 2.8 3.8 9.5 12.7 6.7 5.0 5.0 4.2 0.6 - 15.5 14.9 19 (0) Shiv Vani Oil & Gas BUY 322 453 41 15 2.1 2.3 44.9 50.3 7.2 6.4 6.2 5.4 0.9 0.3 15.3 12.6 22 (29) Sterlite Technologies BUY 67 79 18 24 1.7 2.6 4.5 6.9 14.8 9.8 8.0 5.9 0.7 0.2 20.3 24.7 40 (23) West Coast Paper Mills BUY 99 144 46 6 1.0 1.2 15.2 18.4 6.5 5.3 6.3 5.0 0.8 2.0 16.0 9.5 23 38 Important Disclaimer:

This report is prepared and published on behalf of the research team of Antique Stock Broking Limited (ASBL). ASBL, its holding company and associate companies are a full service, integrated investment banking, investment advisory and brokerage group. Our research analysts and sales persons provide important inputs for our investment banking and allied activities. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information contained herein, so far as it relates to current and historical information, but do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without any notice. ASBL or any persons connected with it do not solicit any action based on this report and do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own judgment and take their own professional advice before acting on this information. The research reports are for private circulation and are not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Unless otherwise noted, all research reports provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. ASBL its holding company and associate companies or any of its connected persons including its directors or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained, views and opinions expressed in this publication. ASBL its holding company and associate companies, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. ASBL, its holding company and associate companies, directors, officers or employees may, from time to time, deal in the securities mentioned herein, as principal or agent. ASBL its holding company and associate companies may have acted as an Investment Advisor or Merchant Banker for some of the companies (or its connected persons) mentioned in this report. The research reports and all the information opinions and conclusions contained in them are proprietary information of ASBL and the same may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without express consent of ASBL. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Analyst ownership in stock No

Antique Stock Broking Limited Nirmal, 2nd Floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021. Tel. : +91 22 4031 3444 • Fax : +91 22 4031 3445 www.antiquelimited.com