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Osservatorio 2017 CENTER FOR ADVANCED MILITARY CENTER DEFENCE STUDIES FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Osservatorio Strategico 2017 Issue 2 The Military Center for Strategic Studies (Ce.Mi.S.S.) is an Italian Institute founded in 1987 that carries out strategic researches for the Italian Ministry of Defence. It allows the access to knowledge tools and analytical methods that help in tackling current and future scenarios in support of the security and defence needs of the Italian Defence Services and of the national community in general. Its mission is to play effectively an active cultural and scientific role, interacting with the relevant communities in order to shape a positive social environment vis-à-vis with opinion leaders and public opinion. In particular the Center: ● carries out politico-military strategic studies and researches; ● develops the cooperation between the Italian Defence Services, Universities and Research Institutes or Government bodies (National & International); ● trains military and civilian researchers; ● promotes the specialization of young researchers in its areas of interest; ● publishes and circulates the most relevant studies. The Ce.Mi.S.S. carries out its activities availing of civilian and military experts (Italian and foreigner), who enjoy academic freedom in their research. Therefore, views expressed in the content of this volume are solely those of authors and not the position of the Italian MoD. CENTER FOR ADVANCED MILITARY CENTER DEFENCE STUDIES FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Osservatorio Strategico 2017 Issue 2 Osservatorio Strategico YEAR XIX ISSUE II - 2017 DISCLAIMER The opinions expressed in this volume are of the Authors; they do not reflect the official opinion of the Italian Ministry of Defence or of the Organizations to which the Authors belong. NOTES The articles are written using open source informations. The “Osservatorio Strategico” is available also in electronic format (file pdf and ebook) at the following link: http://www.difesa.it/SMD_/CASD/IM/CeMiSS/Pubblicazioni/OsservatorioStrategico/ Pagine/default.aspx Osservatorio Strategico 2017 This book has been edited by Military Center for Strategic Studies Director Rear-Admiral Mario Caruso Deputy Director Col. A.F. Marco Francesco D’ASTA Chief International Relations Department Graphic and layout Massimo Bilotta - Roberto Bagnato Authors Claudia Astarita, Claudio Bertolotti Claudio Catalano, Lorena Di Placido, Stefano Felician Beccari, Lucio Martino, Marco Massoni, Nunziante Mastrolia, Nicola Pedde, Paolo Quercia, Francesco Davide Ragno Printed by Typography of the Center for Advanced Defence Studies Military Center for Strategic Studies International Relations Department Palazzo Salviati Piazza della Rovere, 83 - 00165 – ROME - ITALY tel. 00 39 06 4691 3204 fax 00 39 06 6879779 e-mail [email protected] Closed in february 2017 - Printed in april 2017 ISBN 978-88-99468-29-3 Osservatorio Strategico Index South Eastern Europe and Turkey 9 The Dangerous connections of economics, geopolitical and irrendits risks in Balkans. The case of Bosnia Herzegovina and the evolution of other critical regional situations Paolo Quercia Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 17 The Libyan crisis and the Russian incognita Nicola Pedde Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa 23 The First Italia-Africa Conference Marco Massoni Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia 35 Kazakhstan, a mediator in the Syrian crisis Lorena Di Placido China 41 Xi Jinping, globalisation and the Chinese Fault Lines Nunziante Mastrolia India and Indian Ocean 47 Basic income and rural employment guarantee scheme: two strategies to boost welfare and development in India Claudia Astarita Asia-Pacific 55 North Korea, five years of power of Kim Jong Un and the assassination of his brother Kim Jong Nam Stefano Felician Beccari Latin America 61 Democracy in Latin America Francesco Davide Ragno European Defense Initiatives 69 The Brexit process is triggered by a Parliamentary vote Claudio Catalano Transatlantic Relations and NATO 79 America and Europe, after Brexit and Trump Lucio Martino Focus - Area Analysis 87 The Syrian dynamics on Lebanon: politics, security and social costs Claudio Bertolotti 5 Thematic Area Index Russia, China and the US, the three nations competing for global leadership. How to materialize their influence in the different geopolitical areas? South Eastern Europe and Turkey 93 Paolo Quercia Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 97 Nicola Pedde Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa 103 Marco Massoni Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia 113 Lorena Di Placido China 75 Nunziante Mastrolia India and Indian Ocean 127 Claudia Astarita Asia-Pacific 131 Stefano Felician Beccari Latin America 135 Francesco Davide Ragno European Defense Initiatives 139 Claudio Catalano Transatlantic Relations and NATO 143 Lucio Martino Acronyms list 147 6 South Eastern Europe and Turkey Paolo Quercia The Dangerous connections of economics, geopolitical and irrendits risks in Balkans. The case of Bosnia Herzegovina and the evolution of other critical regional situations In South Eastern Europe Panorama Bosnia and Herzegovina continues to live a difficult internal situation that makes it one of the most fragile countries in the regional context. This is not a direct consequence of only ethnic and political internal factors, but an intersection of unresolved historical issues, new geopolitical tensions and the effects that are becoming very dramatic economic crisis in the country. It was believed that the change of the American presidency, with the advent of an administration not linked to the geopolitical divisions of the dissolution of Yugoslavia and characterized, at least in fiction, from a more constructive relationship with Russia, could have produced an atmosphere of power-sharing between Moscow and Washington that could ease tensions in the heart of the Balkans. However, the transit administration has proved much more complex and conflicted than expected and the very possibility that the administration again changes course radically in the US policy in the Balkans appears to be still in doubt. This especially for marginalization of the region in American foreign policy, profitability is likely to increase further with the new American president. What. Rather than produce a power-sharing agreement is likely to produce a geopolitical vacuum that could be exploited by those who are interested in a review of the regional status quo, no longer protected by the eye away but alert the US administration that, until the Obama presidency, has maintained a certain continuity of approach to the region. An example of these tensions between the old and the new US administration on the Balkans and in particular on Bosnia and Herzegovina has occurred with the case of sanctions ad personam against the president of Republica Srpska Dodik, inserted in the Black List of the US Treasury as a peace - spoiler on the stability regional. USA include Republika srpska president Dodik in OFAC black list. Softer UE diplomatic isolation. In a surprise move the US Treasury has added Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the list of subjects under personal restrictive measures, preventing the Bosnian Serb politician to travel to the USA, blocking his assets or interests in the US and making unlawful for any American citizen to have economic transactions with him. The reasons communicated by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) concern Dodik's political behaviors which are considered destabilizing for the assets of the country and the political Serbia is held responsible for conduct that may endanger the peace agreements of Dayton in 1995, with whom he was ended the conflict. The designation of Dodik takes place just days after the US Embassy in Sarajevo had refused to President of the RS for a visa to the US. According to the version provided by Dodik, his trip to America was organized to join the party for the election of US President Trump, of which he was one of the guests. Dodik is considered by the Americans a man very close to Russia, which maintains personal relations with Putin and that has initiated major economic collaborations between companies Bosnian Serb and Russia. Dodik pursues, at least in words, a secessionist policy of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dodik claimed that his designation by OFAC is the result of the US ambassador's personal grudge against defending Sarajevo and that the new administration Trump will change the decision taken. Even the European Union, in early February, has adopted restrictive measures in personam against Dodik, which can be configured as diplomatic sanctions. Osservatorio Strategico 2017 – Year XIX issue II 7 South Eastern Europe and Turkey The Heads of Mission of the European Union present in Sarajevo have in fact agreed to freeze any direct relationship with Dodik, pledging not to meet him in an official capacity, thus making it difficult for him to maintain relations with the European Union countries. The measure is rather bland and informal, and not however appear to preclude unofficial contacts with the president of the Republika Srpska. The motivation for these measures is similar to that used by the USA in the insertion of Dodik in the list of individuals sanctioned by the US Treasury, which have been responsible for the actions or statements destabilizing for peace in the country. Informal diplomatic embargo against Dodik goes for the time read as a political message - for a diplomat from the EU strong demand for change in policy.
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