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Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning 2010

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Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning 2010 United States Department of Southwestern Region Agriculture Forest Service Climate Change Southwestern Region Trends and Forest May 2010 Planning A Guide for Addressing Climate Change in Forest Plan Revisions for Southwestern National Forests and National Grasslands Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning 2010 Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning Prepared for: USDA Forest Service Southwestern Region 333 Broadway SE Albuquerque, New Mexico 87102 Submitted by: Southwestern Region Climate Change and Forest Planning Work Group Name Unit Resource Specialty Comment Richard Periman RO – Planning Regional Social Science Team Leader Christine Dawe RO – Planning Regional Planning Specialist Bryce Rickel RO – Wildlife Biology Amy Unthank RO – Wildlife Biology Champe Green Cibola NF Planner Roy Jemison RO – Watershed Hydrology Kurt Nelson Carson NF Planner Brian Kent RMRS Decision Sci/ Human Uses RMRS Rep Other Contributors Jack Triepke RO – Planning Regional Ecologist / Air Prog. Mgr. Ernest W. Taylor RO – Wildlife Biology / Budget Coordinator Yolynda Begay RO – Planning Social Science 2 Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning 2010 Contents Introduction ...................................................... 6 Section One: Guidance on Climate Change and Land Management Plans ................................. 7 Current Conditions and Trends ................................................................................................................. 7 Goals and Desired Conditions .................................................................................................................. 7 Monitoring ................................................................................................................................................. 8 Decision Document Guidance .................................................................................................................. 9 Section Two: Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning ........... 10 Overview and Background ..................................................................................................................... 10 Climate in the American Southwest ...................................................................................................... 11 What is Climate? ................................................................................................................................. 11 Future Climate of the Southwest ....................................................................................................... 12 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Southwestern Climate Change and Ecosystems ................................................................................... 15 Water and Climate Change ................................................................................................................ 15 Climate Change and Potential Ecosystem Impacts ........................................................................... 17 Vegetation Changes............................................................................................................................ 18 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................................ 19 Insects and Disease ........................................................................................................................... 19 3 Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning 2010 Invasive Species ................................................................................................................................. 20 Specific Habitats .................................................................................................................................... 20 Alpine ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Riparian ............................................................................................................................................... 21 Wetlands and Playas .......................................................................................................................... 21 Sky Islands .......................................................................................................................................... 21 Aquatic Systems ................................................................................................................................. 22 Plant and animal species ....................................................................................................................... 22 Distribution ......................................................................................................................................... 23 Habitat Quality .................................................................................................................................... 23 Behavior and Biology .......................................................................................................................... 23 Fragmentation and Isolation .............................................................................................................. 24 Southwestern Climate Change and Socioeconomic Effects ................................................................. 24 Livestock Grazing ................................................................................................................................ 25 Recreational Value ............................................................................................................................. 26 Wood and Paper Products ................................................................................................................. 26 Health .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Urban Areas ........................................................................................................................................ 27 Energy .................................................................................................................................................. 27 Key Climate Change Factors for Southwestern Region National Forests ............................................. 28 Increased Extreme Weather Events .................................................................................................. 28 Wildfire ................................................................................................................................................ 29 Outbreaks of Insects, Diseases, and Non-Native Invasive Species ................................................ 29 Diminishing Water Resources ............................................................................................................ 30 Climate-Related Socioeconomic Demand ......................................................................................... 30 4 Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning 2010 Section Three: Potential Climate Change Strategies for Southwestern Region National Forests ............................................................ 31 Enhance Adaptation by Anticipating and Planning for Disturbances from Intense Storms ................. 32 Reduce Vulnerability by Maintaining and Restoring Resilient Native Ecosystems ............................... 32 Fragmentation .................................................................................................................................... 33 Promote Connectivity ......................................................................................................................... 33 Riparian ............................................................................................................................................... 34 Maintain Biodiversity .......................................................................................................................... 34 Increase Water Conservation and Plan for Reductions in Upland Water Supplies .............................. 34 Anticipate Increase Forest Recreation Use, Utilize Markets and Demand for Small-Diameter Wood and Biomass for Restoration, Renewable Energy, and Carbon Sequestration .................................... 35 Monitor Climate Change Influences ...................................................................................................... 35 References Cited ........................................... 36 Climate Change Glossary ............................. 43 5 Southwestern Region Climate Change Trends and Forest Planning 2010 Introduction Climate scientists agree that the earth is undergoing a warming trend, and that human-caused elevations in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are among the causes of global temperature increases. The observed concentrations of these greenhouse gases are projected to increase. Climate change may intensify the risk of ecosystem change for terrestrial and aquatic systems, affecting ecosystem structure, function, and productivity. Former Forest Service Chief Abigail R. Kimball has characterized
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