7 the Future of Cash

The Future of Cash Will digital payment systems 7 replace paper currency? By Hannah H. Kim distribute or Jamie Birdwell-Branson does not remember a time when she regu- larly used cash to buy things. “I’ve always just used my debit card,” says the 30-year-old freelance writer and editor who lives in Toledo, Ohio. “I’ve always thought it was more convenient because I have an actual record online of every single thing I’m purchasing.” post,It doesn’t always work. On a holiday road trip last year, she and her husband stopped at a toll plaza outside Oklahoma City. Her husband, who was driving, handed his card to the man in the toll booth, who “just looked completely befuddled,” she says. “It was like he had never been confronted with this modern mystery of a debit card before.” But such cash-only facilities may be a dying breed. In a typical copy,week, Birdwell-Branson routinely uses her debit card to pay for almost every transaction, from her morning coffee to her gym membership to weekly grocery purchases. “I get really salty” about having to take out cash, she says. “I’m 99.99 percent cashless.” not The rise of digital payment systems and electronic banking has led to debates among economists, business experts and the public about the future of cash. Advocates of a cashless economy argue that the physical wallet and its contents will soon become Do historical artifacts. A cashless society, in which all financial transactions will be conducted through transfers of digital infor- From CQ Researcher, mation, could be a more efficient, practical and traceable money July 19, 2019 system, they argue. 153 Copyright ©2020 by SAGE Publications, Inc. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. 154 INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY Critics of a cashless economy, however, say the of U.S. consumers used mobile or online methods in nation is ill-equipped for such a transition. Barriers 2017.1 to banking and technology may deny portions of the “It’s inevitable that [payments] are going to population access to basic goods and services, they become more digitized and that cash is going to even- say. Some people will want to continue to use cash tually wither,” says Michael Best, an assistant profes- for a variety of reasons, such as for budgeting or pri- sor of economics at Columbia University. “It will end vacy, the critics also point out. Others may not have up being that cash gets used only for very small, or the access, finances or skills to acquire formal bank- very illegal, transactions.” ing services or a smartphone, or simply do not like Cashless payments include a wide range of fund banks. transfer methods: credit and debit cards, prepaid cards, “We have fierce individualism in this country, and bank account transfers, bank and traveler’s checks, cash is a part of that in many parts of the country,” says money orders, direct deduction from income and cryp- Sarah Jane Hughes, a professor of commercial law at tocurrency such as bitcoin. They also include mobile Indiana University’s Maurer School of Law in apps linked to credit and debit cards, as well as transac- Bloomington. tions connected to a user’s credit card or bank account Cash is still the most frequently used payment that are made through online payment intermediaries instrument in the United States, but mainly for such as PayPal and Venmo.2 transactions of less than $10, according to a 2018 The trend toward cashlessdistribute payments may be acceler- study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. The ated by Facebook’s announcement in June that it would study found that while debit cards, cash and credit create its own Libra cryptocurrency in partnership with cards were the most popular payment instruments, digital and creditor card companies. 3 the adoption of mobile apps and online accounts for The dollar is the U.S. national currency. Its value is making payments was steadily increasing. About half backed by collateral held by the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, most of it in the form of government securities.4 The Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors deter- Fewer Americans Using Cash post, mines how much new currency will be produced each year, and the The share of U.S. adults who say they do not use cash in their typical weekly transactions increased 5 percentage points from 2015 to 2018, while the proportion Treasury Department’s Bureau of who made almost all purchases with cash fell 6 points. Engraving and Printing prints U.S. currency.5 About $1.70 trillion is in How U.S. Adults Made 2015 2018 circulation, according to the Federal Weekly Purchases, Reserve.6 20201515 andand 20201818 copy, The Treasury’s U.S. Mint pro- duces coinage. But due to the rising prices of metals, the cost of producing pennies and nickels has not exceeded their worth since 2006, resulting in financial losses to the Mint, according to the U.S. Government Accountability Office.7 In 2015, a penny cost about DoAll/almost all with cash Some with cash None with cash 1.7 cents to make, while a nickel Note: Nonresponses not shown. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. cost 8 cents to produce.8 Source A P, m A , Pw The Federal Reserve Bank of Research Center, Dec. 12, 2018, https://tinyurl.com/yyq9awl6 Chicago estimates that demand for Copyright ©2020 by SAGE Publications, Inc. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. THE FUTURE OF CASH 155 U.S. currency will increase by at least 1.7 percent, and as that facilitate online money transfers, has given consum- much as 10.2 percent, by 2028. If the lower estimate ers and business owners more ways to conduct cashless proves correct, the main reason will be increased con- transactions than in the past. The global payments mar- sumer adoption of new payment technologies, the bank ket grew 11 percent in 2017, topping $1.9 trillion, said. If the higher projection is borne out, it will be according to the consulting firm McKinsey, which iden- because of increased foreign use of U.S. dollars.9 tified the Asia-Pacific region as dominating the revenue The dollar is also the global economy’s reserve cur- pool. The report predicted increased growth in the pay- rency, the currency that other nations hold, in part to ments market as more emerging economies continue to pay for purchases of oil and other commodities that are invest in electronic money systems.15 priced in dollars. As the world’s most popular currency, Cashless payment methods are not as widely used in the dollar is accepted for routine transactions in many the United States as in some other parts of the world, countries, even North Korea.10 U.S. dollars are seen as a where both cards and mobile wallets are so popular that secure form of currency in many other countries, espe- cash use is declining rapidly. Sweden is the world’s cially those with unstable political or financial systems, most cashless society; most payments are made with according to a 2018 report by the Federal Reserve Bank debit cards or a mobile payment app called Swish— of Chicago.11 Some nations, such as Ecuador, have even which allow the user to make a purchase by withdraw- adopted the dollar as their official currency.12 ing an amount directly from a checking account.16 The “There are places around the world that don’t enjoy country could becomedistribute completely cashless by 2023, the sound banking systems that we have in the U.S., so according to researchers at the Copenhagen School they’re more likely to use cash than to rely on deposit of Economics.17 accounts to make payments,” says William J. Luther, a In China,or mobile payment apps have drastically director at the American Institute for Economic changed day-to-day transactions in cities over the last Research, a Massachusetts-based think tank. five years. Some stores, markets and food stalls in urban According to research by Federal Reserve economist centers no longer accept paper currency.18 More than Ruth Judson, while overall demand for U.S. currency con- three-fourths of Chinese smartphone users made a tinues to grow, demand for smaller denominations, mobile purchase in 2017, according to the market including the $20 bill, has been slowing, which may bepost, the research firm eMarketer. Earlier this year, China’s first indication of a declining domestic need for cash.13 central bank and other regulatory bodies released a joint Cash serves another purpose: it is the medium of choice report announcing an initiative to make mobile pay- for illicit activities. This helps explain two seemingly contra- ments accessible in rural areas by the end of 2020.19 dictory trends: a steady increase in the demand for U.S. “There are societies much more cashless than the dollars, most notably the $100 bill, even as the average value U.S. We’re behind,” says Daniel Levine, the director of of consumer purchases made in cash declines. In 2017, the the Avant-Guide Institute, a business consultancy on $100 bill became the most widelycopy, circulated note in circula - trends influencing the global marketplace. “We have tion, even exceeding the $1 bill.14 technological challenges and societal challenges.” “Eighty percent of the value of all U.S.

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