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Modes De Vie Et Empreinte Carbone Prospective Des Modes De Vie En France À L’Horizon 2050 Et Empreinte Carbone

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Modes De Vie Et Empreinte Carbone Prospective Des Modes De Vie En France À L’Horizon 2050 Et Empreinte Carbone LES CAHIERS DU CLub d’IngénIERIE PROSPECTIVE ENERGIE ET ENVIRONNEMENT CLIPNUMÉRO 21 DÉCEMBRE 2012 Modes de vie et empreinte carbone PROSPECTIVE DES MODES DE VIE EN FRANCE À L’horizon 2050 et emPREINTE CARBONE Le Club d’Ingénierie Prospective Énergie et N°21 - Décembre 2012 Environnement Modes de vie Liste des membres : et empreinte carbone Prospective des modes de vie en France à l’horizon 2050 ADEME Agence de l’Environnement et et empreinte carbone de la Maîtrise de l’Énergie BRGM Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières CIRAD Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Éditorial Développement CNRS Centre National de la Introduction Recherche Scientifique CSTB Centre Scientifique et Regards sur les modes de vie d’hier, d’aujourd’hui et de demain Technique du Bâtiment Rétrospective des modes de vie de 1960 à nos jours 9 CITEPA La mobilité : entre constantes et ruptures 12 Centre Interprofessionnel Technique d’Études Signaux faibles écologiques ou émergence de nouveaux mouvements sociaux de la Pollution Atmosphérique silencieux ? 15 CEA L’essor des info-nano-bio-technologies : convergence vers l’avènement d’une post- Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique humanité ? 27 EDF Science-fiction et modes de vie au futur 33 Électricité de France GDF Gaz de France Description de cinq visions de modes de vie à l’horizon 2050 GIE R.E. PSA RENAULT Méthodologie de construction des visions 2050 39 IFP Société consumérisme vert 41 Institut Français du Pétrole Société individu augmenté 47 INERIS Institut National de l’Environnement Société duale et sobriété plurielle 54 Industriel et des Risques Société écocitoyenneté 60 INRA Société âge de la connaissance 66 Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique INRETS Institut National de la Recherche sur Première évaluation des émissions de GES selon les cinq visions les Transports et leur Sécurité des modes de vie en 2050 ONF Segmentation de la population française et méthode d’évaluation de l’empreinte Office National des Forêts carbone des ménages 74 SNCF Émissions de GES à l’année de référence 81 Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer Français Bilan carbone d’une sélection de ménages en 2050 selon leurs usages 93 SNET Impact sur les résultats d’une modification des sources d’énergie mobilisées 111 Société Nationale d’Électricité et de Conclusion 116 Thermique Des responsables des ministères chargés de l’Environnement, de Pour un débat citoyen sur les modes de vie l’Industrie, de la Recherche, du Plan Bibliographie 124 et du Logement font partie du Comité de Coordination et d’Orientation Notes 126 Scientifique Annexes 127 L’iddri assure l’animation du CLIP et l’édition des Cahiers du CLIP Directeur de publication : Michel COLOMBIER Editeur: Pierre BARTHÉLEMY Maquette: Ivan PHARABOD - phiLabs 27, rue Saint-Guillaume - 75337 Paris Cedex 07 Contact: Pierre BARTHÉLEMY - [email protected] - T/+33 (0)1 45 49 76 66 Auteurs Cyria EMELIANOFF et Elsa MOR, UMR 6590, Université du Maine, Michelle DOBRE et Maxime CORDELLIER, UMR 8097, MRSH Université de Caen, Carine BARBIER, CIRED, UMR CNRS 8568, Nathalie BLANC, LADYSS, UMR 7533, et Agnès SANDER, Université Paris X, Christine CASTELAIN MEUNIER, Centre d’Analyse et d’Intervention sociologiques, EHESS, Damien JOLITON et Nicolas LEROY, Bureau d’études Energie Demain, Prabodh POUROUCHOTTAMIN, EDF R&D, Pierre RADANNE, Bureau d’études Futur Facteur 4. Avec la participation de Jean-Yves AUTHIER, Groupe de recherche sur la socialisation, UMR 5040, Université Lyon 2, Véronique BEILLAN, EDF R&D, Jacques CHEVALIER et Aurélien TABURET, ESO-Le Mans, UMR 6590, Université du Maine, Nathalie ETAHIRI, Mission prospective du MEDDE, Pascal GIRAULT, EDF R&D Eifer, Emmanuelle RENAUD-HELLIER, ESO-Rennes, UMR 6590, Jacques THEYS, Mission prospective du MEDDE, Jean-Pierre TRAISNEL, Laboratoire Théorie des Mutations Urbaines, UMR 7136, Eric VIDALENC, Ademe. Nous remercions tout particulièrement Agnès SANDER pour sa contribution à ce travail. Agnès nous a quittés cet été 2012. Nous lui dédions cette publication. Le programme « Repenser les villes dans la société postcarbone » Le projet de recherche « Prospective des modes de vie à l’horizon 2050 » fait partie du programme « Repenser les villes dans la société postcarbone ». Lancé en 2008 par la Mission prospective du ministère de l’Écologie et du Développement durable, ce programme a été, à partir de 2009, copiloté par celle-ci et par le service Économie et prospective de l’Ademe (Agence de l’environnement et de la maîtrise de l’énergie). Il s’est structuré autour de cinq activités : — un groupe de prospective d’environ 25 personnes, animé par Futuribles puis Mana ; — un programme d’une vingtaine de recherches ; — des « recherches actions » avec six villes ou territoires différents ; — un séminaire de mise en débat animé par l’université française du Maine (une dizaine de séances) ; — enfin, un site Internet : www.villepostcarbone.fr/ Le rapport final doit être publié en 2013. Soutien Le projet de recherche « Prospective des modes de vie à l’horizon 2050 » a reçu le soutien financier du Programme Interdisci- plinaire Énergie du CNRS, de la Mission Prospective du ministère de l’Écologie et de l’Ademe. 4 | Modes de vie et empreinte carbone | Les Cahiers du Clip n°21 | Décembre 2012 Éditorial Le lecteur familier des Cahiers du CLIP sera des ménages sur le besoin en logement et en certainement un peu dépaysé en découvrant confort domestique est clairement discuté, cette dernière mouture. Depuis de nombreuses mais le lien entre population et parc bâti est années, le CLIP propose, sur des questions peu modifié, écartant simplement l’habitat dif- diversifiées (automobile, habitat, génération fus dans les constructions neuves. Il suppose d’électricité, usages de la biomasse, etc.) mais implicitement que notre rapport au territoire, toujours reliées au fil directeur de la consom- aux formes urbanistiques et aux structures mation énergétique, des exercices prospectifs sociales ne se modifie guère au cours des 50 dont le point d’entrée est invariablement tech- prochaines années. C’est, par omission, une nologique. Le jeu consiste à s’intéresser à une hypothèse fragile. innovation ou un groupe d’innovations (pile à Dans les années 1970, la réflexion sur les combustible, bâtiment à énergie positive, car- questions énergétiques a été marquée par une burants de seconde génération, etc.) et à tester révolution copernicienne : alors que précé- les enjeux de leur déploiement à l’aune d’ob- demment la demande énergétique finale était jectifs énergétiques ou environnementaux. La une donnée exogène, reflet de la croissance méthode repose sur l’élaboration de scénarios économique et de la diffusion du « progrès » stylisant des univers de choix contrastés mais dans toutes les couches de la société, d’autres cohérents, respectueux aussi des contraintes représentations ont progressivement émer- de système qui pourront brider le déploiement gé en replaçant cette demande au cœur de de ces solutions technologiques indépendam- la réflexion et des politiques publiques : la ment de leurs qualités intrinsèques et de leur demande finale s’exprimait dans ce modèle succès potentiel : à titre d’exemple, pour le au travers d’un certain nombre de postes de dernier exercice, Habitat Facteur 4 (Cahiers consommation (logement, mobilité, confort du CLIP n°20), l’impact des « bâtiments à éner- domestique, services et produits industriels), gie positive » est bien entendu contraint par le dont la satisfaction mobilisait des formes et taux de construction neuve, tandis que l’ambi- des quantités d’énergie variables en fonction tion de rénovation énergétique doit également des technologies mises en œuvre (isolation et s’inscrire dans des rythmes plausibles et des chaudières, automobile ou train, etc.). Plutôt gestes techniques compatibles avec la struc- que de se focaliser sur la fourniture d’énergie, ture du parc bâti ; les options de production il appartenait alors aux responsables publics de chaleur tiennent parallèlement compte de de favoriser la diffusion de solutions techno- l’état initial des parcs et des disponibilités ter- logiques plus efficaces pour satisfaire cette de- ritoriales de chaque source d’énergie… Mais mande. Dans le contexte des grands chocs pé- au-delà de ces jeux de contraintes matérielles, troliers, considérer cette demande en service nos réflexions prospectives se sont toujours comme un facteur exogène était un exercice appuyées, explicitement ou implicitement, sur imposé : il s’agissait alors de montrer qu’entre tout un ensemble d’hypothèses structurantes la fuite en avant de la consommation d’éner- de la demande en services énergétiques par gie et l’austérité imposée par les chocs pétro- les sociétés : si nous reprenons l’exercice Ha- liers se profilait une troisième voie pariant sur bitat Facteur 4, l’impact de la décohabitation l’efficacité des usages. C’est bien dans cette et de la diminution tendancielle de la taille lignée que se sont inscrits les travaux du CLIP Décembre 2012 | Les Cahiers du Clip n°21 | Modes de vie et empreinte carbone | 5 toutes ces années. Bien sûr, au fil des exer- temps de travail ou de loisir des individus ? cices, la notion d’efficacité s’est progressive- Bien souvent, l’inertie des consommateurs ou ment hybridée et on ne peut considérer que, des comportements est brandie comme une par exemple, la question du report modal de limite radicale à la transition, une exigence de l’automobile vers les transports en commun réalisme. Parions qu’au contraire, le mouve- ou les « modes doux
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