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View Initial Appraisal Case for Change Argyll & Bute Region Report Initial Appraisal: Case for Change Argyll & Bute Region February 2021 STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Argyll & Bute Region STRATEGIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS REVIEW 2 Project No: B2356701 Document Title: STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Argyll & Bute Region Revision: Final Date: 03/02/21 Jacobs UK Ltd. 95 Bothwell Street Glasgow, Scotland G2 7HX United Kingdom T +44.(0)141 243 8000 F +44 (0)141 226 3109 www.jacobs.com © Copyright 2021 Jacobs UK Ltd and AECOM Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs and AECOM. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs and AECOM constitutes an infringement of copyright. Limitation: This document has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ and AECOM client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs, AECOM and the client. Jacobs and AECOM accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this document by any third party. Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Consultancy Support Services Contract STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Argyll & Bute Region Contents 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background & Report Purpose ............................................................................ 1 1.2. COVID-19 Impacts ............................................................................................... 3 2. Context ..................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Policy Context ...................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Geographical Context .......................................................................................... 6 2.3. Socio Economic Context ...................................................................................... 9 2.4. Environmental Context ....................................................................................... 24 2.5. Transport Context .............................................................................................. 31 2.6. Context Summary .............................................................................................. 40 3. Problems & Opportunities ..................................................................................... 42 3.1. Approach to Problem and Opportunity Identification .......................................... 42 3.2. Problems & Opportunities .................................................................................. 44 3.3. Summary ........................................................................................................... 60 4. Transport Planning Objectives ............................................................................. 62 4.1. National and Regional Objectives ...................................................................... 62 5. Option Generation and Sifting .............................................................................. 67 5.1. Strategic Options ............................................................................................... 67 5.2. Approach ........................................................................................................... 67 5.3. Next Steps ......................................................................................................... 84 Appendices Appendix A: Figures Appendix B: List of Policy Documents Appendix C: Stakeholder Engagement Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Page i Consultancy Support Services Contract STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Argyll & Bute Region Figures Figure 1: The Four Key Phases to the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance ................... 1 Figure 2: Argyll & Bute Study Area ..................................................................................... 2 Figure 3: Policy Review ...................................................................................................... 6 Figure 4: Urban Rural 2016 6-fold Scottish Government Classification ............................... 8 Figure 5: Argyll & Bute Largest Settlements by Population 2016, 2019 Population and Population Density ............................................................................................................. 9 Figure 6: Population of Argyll & Bute’s Inhibited Islands 2011 .......................................... 10 Figure 7: Argyll & Bute Population Change by Locality 2012 – 2016 ................................ 11 Figure 8: Argyll & Bute Annual Population Change, 2012-13 to 2018-19 .......................... 12 Figure 9: Age Population Levels in Argyll & Bute and Scotland, 2019 .............................. 13 Figure 10: Population Age Change in Argyll and Bute and Scotland 2011 to 2019 ........... 14 Figure 11: Sector GVA Share, Argyll & Bute vs Scotland, 2018 ........................................ 16 Figure 12: Index of GVA, Argyll & Bute and Scotland, 2008-2018 .................................... 17 Figure 13: Travel to Work Mode Share, Argyll & Bute 2011 .............................................. 18 Figure 14: Distance Travelled to Work, Argyll & Bute 2011 .............................................. 19 Figure 15: Argyll & Bute Car/Van Availability (2011) ......................................................... 20 Figure 16: Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, Argyll & Bute 2020 ............................... 21 Figure 17: Transport Expenditure (%) as a Proportion of Household Income, Argyll & Bute 2018 ................................................................................................................................. 23 Figure 18: Environmental Designations for Argyll and Bute region ................................... 25 Figure 19: Noise Mapping for Argyll and Bute region ........................................................ 27 Figure 20: SEPA Flood Map for Argyll and Bute region .................................................... 29 Figure 21: Carbon and Peatland Map for Argyll and Bute region ...................................... 30 Figure 22: Argyll & Bute Transport Network ...................................................................... 32 Figure 23: Rail Passenger Journeys, Argyll & Bute 2007-08 to 2018-19 ........................... 35 Figure 24: Traffic on the Trunk Road Network, Argyll & Bute 2008 – 2018 ....................... 36 Figure 25: Key Trunk Road Accident Statistics, Argyll & Bute 2014 - 2018 ....................... 38 Figure 26: Campbeltown, Islay and Tiree Air Terminal Passenger Numbers 2008 – 2018 40 Figure 27: Stakeholder Engagement ................................................................................ 43 Figure 28: Active Travel to School 2018 ........................................................................... 45 Figure 29: Broadband Connection (Argyll and Bute vs all Local Authorities) 2019 ............ 49 Figure 30: Public Transport Access to Towns (on a typical Tuesday 06.00 – 10.00) ........ 51 Figure 31: Argyll & Bute Trunk Road Serious and Fatal accidents, 2014-18 ..................... 56 Figure 32: Approach to Option Generation and Sifting ..................................................... 68 Figure 33: Option Sifting Process ..................................................................................... 70 Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Page ii Consultancy Support Services Contract STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Argyll & Bute Region Tables Table 1: CO2 Emissions Per Capita from Transport and Percentage of Scotland Total Transport-related Emissions [*] ........................................................................................ 31 Table 2: Argyll & Bute Trunk Road Flows and Percentage of HGVs ................................. 37 Table 3: Argyll & Bute Airports .......................................................................................... 39 Table 4: Typical Road Journey Times by Bus vs Car (Intra-Regional) .............................. 46 Table 5: Typical Bus vs Car Journey Times from Oban (Inter-Regional) .......................... 52 Table 6: Typical Rail vs Car Journey Times from Oban (Inter-Regional) .......................... 52 Table 7: Typical Road Journey Times between Key Main Towns and Settlements, (Intra and Inter-Regional) ........................................................................................................... 53 Table 8: National Objectives and Regional Sub-Objectives .............................................. 62 Table 9: Mapping of Problem and Opportunity Themes to Transport Planning Objectives 65 Table 10: Groupings Proposed to Progress to STPR2 Appraisal ...................................... 72 Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Page iii Consultancy Support Services Contract STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Argyll & Bute Region List of Acronyms ACRONYM BRES Business Register and Employment Survey CO2 Carbon Dioxide CPOP Community Planning Outcomes Profile CRWIA Children’s Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment DfT Department for Transport (UK) EqIA Equality Impact Assessment FSDA Fairer Scotland Duty Assessment GVA Gross Value Added HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle ICIA Island Communities Impact Assessment KSI Killed or Serious
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