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Abstract David Ricardo's Macroeconomics

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Abstract David Ricardo's Macroeconomics ABSTRACT DAVID RICARDO'S MACROECONOMICS Doctor of Philosophy, 1998 Timothy Sean Davis Graduate Department of Economics University of Toronto This thesis confronts the tendency in the literature of the history of economic thought to criticize Ricardo's macroeconomics, specifically his knowledge of contemporary events, his analysis of postwar crises, and his monetary and fiscal policies. To this end, the historical introduction in Chapters One and Two is critical, for it dispenses with the traditional view that the postwar decade was a period of chronic depression caused by underconsumption and, to a lesser extent, by monetary contraction associated with the 1819 Resumption Act. Chapter Three completes the foundation of our study by showing that Ricardo was well informed regarding Britain's economic and political situation. That he used this knowledge as a basis for his analysis of contemporary events is established in Chapters Four and Five, which chapters also refute the view that his treatment of postwar crises was merely a rationalization of the crude quantity theory and the strict law of markets in the face of overwhelmingly contradictory evidence. Chapter Six argues the merits of his monetary policies, particularly his insistence on the gold standard as a means to curb abuses by the Bank of England and the Government, which together were responsible for gross mismanagement of the currency. The chapter fiuther examines whether Ricardo accepted the "Treasury View" of fiscal policy, and whether his position implies adherence to a doctrinaire version of Say's Law. My conclusions differ from those of authors critical of Ricardo largely because I have adopted a methodological approach to the history of economic thought that differs from theirs. My methodology has no merit of originality, but it does incorporatetwo tenets of sound scholarship: first, that primary texts should be interpreted in an accurate historical context; and second, that textual exegesis involves more than piecing together scattered quotes, but should entail the interpretation of an author's complete position. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am grateful to Sam Hollander for his encouragement, for the time he spent reading nearly a dozen drafts of this work, and for his extraordinary ability to appreciate minute factual and theoretical points. I extend thanks also to Ann Robson, Jack Can; Alan Hynes and David Laidler for their helpful suggestions and for sewing on my thesis committee. And finally, I appreciate Sue Howson's comments regarding the economic history chapters. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT......................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS...................................................................................... v ... LIST OF GRAPHS ............................................................................................ viii LIST OF APPENDICES...................................................................................... ix INTRODUCTION................................................................................................ 1 I. The Unfavourable View of Ricardo 11. The Favourable View of Ricardo 111. Explanation for the Divergent Opinions IV. The Contribution of the Following Chapters CHAPTER 1 -THE BUSINESS CYCLE OF 1815-18..................................... 38 I. Introductory Remarks 11. The 1813-16 Agricultural Depression 111. The First Postwar Business Cycle IV. Monetary Policy of the Bank of England VI. Political Debate Preceding the Resumption Act VII. Conclusion CHAPTER 2 -THE BUSINESS CYCLE OF 1818-25 ..................................... 74 I. Introductory Remarks 74 11. The General Depression of 1819-20 75 111. The Price Deflation of 1820-22 97 IV. Monetary Contraction and the 1820-22 Pdce Deflation 115 V. Conclusion 124 CHAFTER 3 - RICARDO'S KNOWLEDGE OF EVENTS....................................... 126 I. Introductory Remarks 11. Information Used by Loan Contractors 111. Ricardo's Early Interest in Political Debates IV. Ricardo in Parliament V. Conclusion CHAPTER 4 -RICARDO'S ANALYSIS OF THE 1815-18 BUSINESS CYCLE.... 169 I. Introductory Remarks 11. Malthus' Analysis of 'the' Postwar Depression In. Ricardo's Response to Malthus IV. Conclusion CHAPTER 5 -RICARDO'S ANALYSIS OF THE 1818-25 BUSINESS CYCLE,...I88 I. Introduction 11. Inmediate Causes of the 1819-20 General Depression 111. The Disproportion Between Capital and Labour IV. Ricardo's Analysis of the 1820-22 Price Deflation V. The Ricardo-MalthusDebate on Events of 1820-22 VI. Ricardo's Comments on Blake VII. Conclusion CHAPTER 6 - RICARDO'S MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY...................... I. Introduction 11. The Resumption of Cash Payments 111. Ricardo's View of Discretionary Monetary Policy IV. Ricardo's Views on Fiscal Policy V. Conclusion VI. Historical Appendix to Chapter Six CONCLUSION............................................................................................................. 31 1 I. The Historical Context 11. A Further Point Regarding Texhral Exegesis 111. The Role of Primary Sources N. Concluding Remarks APPZNDICES............................................................................................................... 325 BIBLIOGRAPHY......................................................................................................... 429 I. Government Documents . 11. Contemporary Periodicals 111. Primary Authors IV. Secondary Authors vii LIST OF FIGURES I . The Price of Wheat in Britain......................................................................... 45 I1 . Imported Commodity Price Index.................................................................. 79 I11 . Domestic Commodity Price Index ................................................................. 97 viii LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix A: The Bank of England A.l The Monthly Circulation of Bank of England Notes for the Period January 1813 to December 1824. Graph A.l The Bank Note Circulation (monthly) A.2 An Account of the Annual Average Amount of Commercial Paper under Discount at the Bank from 1805 to 1825. A.3 A Monthly Account of the Cash and Bullion Hoard held by the Bank of England from January 1814 to December 1824. Graph A.3 The Bank of England Bullion Hoard (monthly) A.4 An Account of the British Gold Coin Issued Monthly by the Bank of England from July 1816 to June 1823. Graph A.4 British Gold Coins Issued by the Bank (monthly) AS Public and Private Deposits in the Bank of England, 1810 to 1825. Appendix B: Other Data on the Money Supply B.l Two Estimates of the Annual Average Amount of Country Bank Notes in Circulation for the Years 1810 to 1825. B.2 A List of Parliamentary Reports on the Level of the Country Bank Circulation in the Years 1814 to 1823. B.3 An Account of the Number of Country Banks Committing Bankruptcy Each Month from January 1812 to December 1826. B.4 An Account of the Annual Coinage of Gdd Coins, Silver Coins and Silver Tokens for the Years 1810 to 1824. B.5 A List of the Parliamentary Reports on the Coinage intheyears 1813 to 1823. B.6 An Estimate of the Total Circulating Medium, including Bank of England Notes, Country Bank Notes, and Gold and Silver Coins, for the Years 1818 to 1823. B.7 An Account of Stamps on Bills of Exchange, 1804 to 1825. B.8 The Number of Licenses Granted to Country Banks and the Number of Banks Actually Issuing Promissory Notes. Appendix C: Price Data C.l An Account of the Monthly Price of Wheat for the Period January 1813 to December 1823. Graph C.l The Price of Wheat in Britain (Monthly) C.2 An Monthly Account of Wheat Prices in Amsterdam and Danzig for the Period July 1822 to December 1823. C.3 An Account of the Annual Average Prices of Wheat in Russia, Prussia, Germany and Holland, 1810 to 1825. C.4 Monthly Prices of Gold and Silver with a Corresponding Account of the Hamburg Exchange Rate for the Period January 1813 to January 1824. Graph C.4a The Market Price of Gold (monthly) Graph C.4b The Hamburg Exchange Rate (monthly) C.5 Gayer Price Indices for Foreign and Domestic Commodities. Monthly Prices for the Period January 1814 to December 1823. Graph C.5 The Gayer Price Indices (monthly) 1814 to 1823 C.6 An Account of the Monthly i'rices of Major Commodities of Trade as Taken from Blackwood's Commercial Report in the Period January 1818 to May 1823. C.7 Other Contemporary Estimates of Inflation. C.8 Annual Average Prices of Barley, Coal, Iron, Oats, Raw Cotton and Wheat in Britain, 1810 to 1825. Appendix D: Trade Statistics D.l An Account of the Real and Official Estimates of the Annual Values of Imports and Exports for Great Britain, 1810 to 1824. D.2 Quantities of Principal Agricultural Commodities imported into Great Britain in the Years 1810 to 1824. D.3 Annual Estimates of the Quantities of Wheat, Oats and Barley Imported into Britain from Ireland in the Years 18!3 to 1824, including Corn, Grain, Meal & Flour. D.4 An Account ofthe Quantities of Foreign Wheat, Wheat Flour, Oats and Barley Warehoused at British Ports, 1820 to 1823. D.5 An Account of the Quantities of Raw Cotton, Raw Wool, Flax, Linseed, Silk and Timber Imported into Great Britain in the Years 1811 to 1825. Appendi E: Public Finance E.l A List of Revenue (Taxation) Reports Presented to the House of Commons in the Years 1815 to 1823. E.2 An Abstract of the Net Produce of the (Tax) Revenue, 1813 to 1823. Quarterly data are Provided on the Consolidated Fund,
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