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Foreign Policy Review Volume 10 Foreign Policy Review VOLUME 10 Foreign Policy Review Volume 10 Volume Review Policy Foreign Foreign Policy Review VOLUME 10 JANUSZ BUGAJSKI THE VISEGRAD SAGA: ACHIEVEMENTS, SHORTCOMINGS, CONTRADICTIONS ERHARD BUSEK – SEBASTIAN SCHÄFFER AUSTRIA AND THE VISEGRAD FOUR AFTER THE NATIONAL COUNCIL ELECTION MICHIEL LUINING THE CHALLENGE OF THE VISEGRAD GROUP: BENEFITING FROM ITS POSITIONS IN THE EU’S COALITION PATTERNS KONG TIANPING THE ROLE OF VISEGRAD GROUP AND ITS PROSPECT: AN OUTSIDER’S VIEW RUBEN ELAMIRYAN EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES ON THE CROSS-ROADS OF THE EURASIAN GEOPOLITICS: V4 EXPERIENCE IN COOPERATION CULTURE PÉTER STEPPER VISEGRAD COOPERATION BEYOND THE POLISH AND DURING THE HUNGARIAN V4 PRESIDENCY ISTVÁN KOLLAI VISEGRAD BRANDS ON THE GLOBAL MARKETS NORBERT FEJES – GÁBOR MIKLÓS EFFECTS OF THE NEW UKRAINIAN EDUCATION LAW FOR THE VISEGRAD COOPERATION SÁNDOR GYULA NAGY - VIKTÓRIA ENDRŐDI-KOVÁCS – KRISZTINA ANNA FEKETE ANOMALIES OF THE INTERNAL MARKET IN THE INSURANCE AND BANKING SECTOR FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE VISEGRAD COUNTRIES 2017 INSTITUTEKÜLÜGYI FOR ÉS FOREIGN KÜLGAZDASÁGI AFFAIRS INTÉZET AND TRADE Foreign Policy Review Publisher: Márton Schőberl, Director Editor: Márton Ugrósdy Copyediting, layout and design: Tamás Lévárt Published by the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade H-1016 Budapest, Bérc u. 13-15. Phone: +36 1 279 5700 Fax: +36 1 279 57 01 Email: [email protected]; Web: www.kki.hu Copyright © 2017 Janusz Bugajski Erhard Busek Ruben Elamiryan Viktória Endrődi-Kovács Norbert Fejes Krisztina Anna Fekete István Kollai Michiel Luining Gábor Miklós Sándor Gyula Nagy Sebastian Schäffer Péter Stepper Kong Tianping © Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2017 Budapest, 2017 ISSN 1588-7855 (Print) ISSN 2064-9428 (Online) 1 CONTENTS FOREWORD ................................................................................................................... 3 VISEGRAD FROM THE OUTSIDE ............................................................................ 7 THE VISEGRAD SAGA: ACHIEVEMENTS, SHORTCOMINGS, CONTRADICTIONS .............................................................. 7 AUSTRIA AND THE VISEGRAD FOUR AFTER THE NATIONAL COUNCIL ELECTION .............................................................................................. 19 THE CHALLENGE OF THE VISEGRAD GROUP: BENEFITING FROM ITS POSITIONS IN THE EU’S COALITION PATTERNS ..................... 31 THE ROLE OF VISEGRAD GROUP AND ITS PROSPECT: AN OUTSIDER’S VIEW ........................................................................................... 55 EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES ON THE CROSS-ROADS OF THE EURASIAN GEOPOLITICS: V4 EXPERIENCE IN COOPERATION CULTURE................................................................................ 73 VISEGRAD FROM THE INSIDE ................................................................................ 93 VISEGRAD COOPERATION BEYOND THE POLISH AND DURING THE HUNGARIAN V4 PRESIDENCY .................................................................. 93 VISEGRAD BRANDS ON THE GLOBAL MARKETS ......................................... 108 EFFECTS OF THE NEW UKRAINIAN EDUCATION LAW FOR THE VISEGRAD COOPERATION ................................................................ 121 ANOMALIES OF THE INTERNAL MARKET IN THE INSURANCE AND BANKING SECTOR FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE VISEGRAD COUNTRIES ......................................................................... 145 3 4 FOREWORD MÁRTON UGRÓSDY, EDITOR The Visegrad cooperation seems like a mystery for most of the international observ- ers. It is an intergovernmental cooperation, albeit it is not institutionalized like a tra- ditional cooperation format. It speaks up whenever its members feel their interests threatened or in need of protection, while on many crucial issues, like the relationship with Russia it remains divided. Whenever a new regional cooperation is announced, everyone starts to talk about the end of Visegrad, but if there is one thing we know for sure is that since 1991, the Visegrad Four has been one of the most enduring and flexible platforms in Central Europe. The current issue of our journal, Foreign Policy Review, deals with these contradic- tions. The discussion is timely, one the one hand, because Visegrad became a well- known brand in the European Union and beyond, and on the other hand because Hun- gary currently holds the rotating presidency of the cooperation until June 30, 2018. Furthermore, the Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade is part of a think tank cooper- ation called Think Visegrad, which augments the V4 in the research sector. In this issue we have a wide range of articles which all look at the V4 from theoreti- cal and practical considerations. How does the V4 fare in the tense geopolitical arena of Central Europe, which has always been stuck between Germany and Russia, two dominant powers of Europe? How the Central European Member States can use the V4 to secure their interests in the changing architecture of the European Union? What are the lessons of Visegrad for other cooperation formats currently in the making like the Belt and Road Initiative or the Eastern Partnership, or can Visegrad replace the EU Strategy for the Danube Region, or vice versa? Can the V4 become a partner to China? These are the issues our foreign contributors are tackling. The inside of Visegrad, covered by the Hungarian researchers, is more pragmatic: can the V4 act as a single unity to combat the irregularities on the financial market? How can the Hungarian presidency build on the previous, Polish one? Should there be a common approach of the V4 to the contentious Ukrainian education law? Can we further promote V4 brands on the global market? Even though Visegrad was announced dead many times – and most probably it will be in the future as well – we cannot talk enough about this cooperation. The current issue tries to contribute to the debate on our common European future, identifying possible areas for joint efforts as challenges will continue to arise. Should you think otherwise or should you like to argue with our authors, please do so and send us your ideas and articles, as we are looking forward to foster debate on Visegrad and beyond. 5 AUTHORS JANUSZ BUGAJSKI is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington DC. His newest book, co-authored with Margarita Assenova, is entitled Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, 2016. ERHARD BUSEK is a Former Austrian vice-chancellor and minister for Science and Education, currently serving as the Chairman of the Managing Board of the Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa RUBEN ELAMIRYAN was the Think Visegrad Visiting Fellow at the Institute for For- eign Affairs and Trade in 2017. He is the assistant to the Chair of Political Gov- ernance and Public Policy at Public Administration Academy of the Republic of Armenia, and Lecturer at Armenian-Russian (Slavonic) University VIKTÓRIA ENDRŐDI-KOVÁCS is an assistant professor at the Institute of World Economy, Corvinus University of Budapest NORBERT FEJES is a PhD candidate currently with the Institute of World Economy, Corvinus University of Budapest. KRISZTINA ANNA FEKETE is a PhD student of International Relations Multidisci- plinary Doctoral School at Corvinus University of Budapest. ISTVÁN KOLLAI is an adjunct professor at the Institute of World Economy, Corvinus University of Budapest MICHIEL LUINING is EU-expert and a former researcher at Clingendael - the Neth- erlands Institute of International Relations, where he researched and monitored several issues of European affairs, including the rule of law and developments in Central-Europe. GÁBOR MIKLÓS is an assistant professor at the Institute of World Economy, Corvi- nus University of Budapest. SÁNDOR GYULA NAGY PhD habil, eocon. is a senior research fellow at the Insti- tute for Foreign Affairs and Trade and associate professor at the Institute of World Economy, Corvinus University of Budapest. SEBASTIAN SCHÄFFER is a research associate with the Institut für den Donauraum und Mitteleuropa, based in Vienna, Austria. PÉTER STEPPER is a PhD candidate of the International Relations Multidisci- plinary Doctoral School at Corvinus University of Budapest, Corvinus University of Budapest KONG TIANPING is a senior research fellow in the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 6 Foreign Policy Review VISEGRAD FROM THE OUTSIDE THE VISEGRAD SAGA: ACHIEVEMENTS, SHORTCOMINGS, CONTRADICTIONS JANUSZ BUGAJSKI The original purpose of the Visegrad initiative was for the four re-emerging Cen- tral-East European (CEE) democracies to coordinate their pursuit of NATO and EU membership. However, since achieving their primary targets, the Visegrad group has sent contradictory signals on their EU commitments, lacked a coordinated foreign pol- icy, failed to adapt to the new challenges facing NATO, the EU, and the Wider Europe, and lacked a clear and distinct geopolitical identity. Nonetheless, the organization is not defunct and with concerted political impetus and national commitments it can still deliver some important benefits for each of the four participating states as well as for the broader region. OBJECTIVES AND ACHIEVEMENTS The fundamental idea behind the Visegrad initiative, launched in the early 1990s, was for the four re-emerging CEE democracies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slova- kia) to coordinate their policies in striving for NATO and European Union membership. Government officials believed that by banding together and speaking with almost one
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