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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 29 Feb 2016 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article FBD Holdings FY15 First Glance; Losses lower than Company Events expected, NAV better 29-Feb FBD Holdings; Q4 2015 Results 02-Mar Dalata Hotel Group; FY15 Final results 03-Mar CRH; FY15 results Total Produce; Q4 2015 Results Cairn Homes Solid update, production to ramp up in 2016 Travis Perkins; FY15 preliminary results 07-Mar ICG; FY16 Results Economic View Uncertainty prevails following Irish election Economic Events Ireland United Kingdom 29-Feb Mortgage Approvals United States 29-Feb Chicago Purchasing Manager Europe 29-Feb CPI Core YoY Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap FBD Holdings FY15 First Glance; Losses lower than expected, NAV better FBD reported FY15 results this morning with a pretax loss of €85.5m (H1 PTP loss of Recommendation: Hold €96.4m), which compared to our forecast loss of €94.3m. The better outturn is due to Closing Price: €6.25 stronger investment income. However, NAV per share at €6.23 is c.22% ahead of our €5.12 Eamonn Hughes forecast, attributable to an actuarial gain on the pension scheme (c.46c), treatment of part +353-1-641 9442 of the convertible bond as equity (52c) and the lower net loss. [email protected] Gross Written Premium of €363.3m was exactly in line with the previous year. Claims were €341.3m (€354m expected), which translated into a claims ratio of 109%, c.4ppts lower than anticipated (113%). However, a change in treatment for the MIBI annual cost saw this €11.6m charge booked in “other provisions” from technical provisions previously, otherwise the claims ratio was in line with our forecast. Having said that, there was an additional €8m of prior year reserve strengthening in H2 to €96m (from €88m in H1) following the Russell vs HSE Court of Appeal ruling in Q4. However, this implies the current year loss ratio for 2015 was lower than anticipated by a similar offsetting figure. FBD helpfully adds that the clarity provided by that Court of Appeal judgment “has led to some early indications of an emerging willingness by claimants to settle since that date”. It adds weather in Q116 was not severe. In terms of outlook, FBD expects the industry to be loss making in 2016, so rates still need to harden. It anticipates achieving a sub-100% combined ratio by Q416 and full year’s underwriting profits in 2017. It anticipates a “modest loss after tax” in FY16 and it is targeting ROEs of 10-12% in the medium term. The market should react favourably to its comment that “FBD has stabilised during H215”, the better NAV figure and the essentially unchanged guidance for FY16. Home… Page 2 29 Feb. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Cairn Homes Solid update, production to ramp up in 2016 Cairn Homes announced its FY15 results this morning, covering the period from inception to Recommendation: Buy 31 December 2015. In what was a very busy period, management deployed €554m Closing Price: €1.17 (including €40m post period end) acquiring sites with the potential to develop in excess of Colm Foley 11,000 units. In addition, management has announced it is in exclusive discussions to +353-1-641 6042 acquire a business with 5 sites in the Dublin and Dublin commuter belt, with the potential to [email protected] acquire a 6th site. For FY15, as per the investor presentation, 11 sales completed in the period, which was in line with expectations. An additional €316k was generated from rental income. The numbers offer little insight on the company’s performance given the short period of operation. Management has announced it has appointed receivers to 59% of the recently acquired Project Clear portfolio of loans and expects to move these sites into direct control over the near term, having transferred into its ownership on February 19. The company is currently amending existing planning consents and, where appropriate, designing new schemes. Management expects to be on-site at an additional 5 sites within the next 12 months. We expect this will include Hannover Quay, Marianella (Q216) and sites included in the Project Clear portfolio. Management remains optimistic on the outlook for the company and highlight the deteriorating housing shortage and improving macro backdrop, which has seen employment increasing and wage inflation return. Management also highlights the recent policy changes in the industry which are likely to be helpful to Cairn including; development levy rebates on houses under €300k in Dublin and €250k in Cork, reduction in development levies, amended apartment regulations which will reduce development costs and also the reduction in the Part V Social Housing requirement from 20% to 10%. We note in the investor presentation that management has indicated it is targeting a c. 1,000 unit run rate by 2019, compared to our current 1,300 forecast. In addition, we note it comments that it is considering its funding options in relation to strategic opportunities, which may include further debt, JV’s and equity. This is a solid update from management and we expect to see continued progress over the next 12 months as it ramps up production. We reiterate our Buy Call. Home… Page 3 29 Feb. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Economic View Uncertainty prevails following Irish election While the full result of the Irish general election is not yet available, it is abundantly clear Dermot O’Leary +353-1-641 9167 that the final tally will be significantly worse than expected for the outgoing government. At [email protected] this stage it is likely that Fine Gael will remain the biggest party in the State with 52 seats (down from 76 in 2011), while Labour, the junior coalition partner will take just 7 (down from 37 in 2011). As such, the Government parties will fall a full 21 seats short of that required for a majority (80). The big surprise of the weekend has been Fianna Fáil, which may get 43 seats when the final tallies are completed (20 in 2011). Sinn Fein did not get the level of support indicated in the opinion polls, but at 23 seats did gain relative to 2011 (14). Independents and other smaller parties saw a surge in support that was indicated in the opinion polls (total of 33, relative to 19 in 2011). Prior to the election, we speculated that a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition may be the only viable option on the basis of the number of seats achieved. While Fine Gael have performed slightly worse and Fianna Fáil slightly better than expectations, our conclusion remains the same. The two parties would have a significant majority in the Dáil and their policies are compatible. However, such a coalition is far from assured, with senior figures in each party publicly expressing their opposition over the weekend. So what happens next? The Dail is scheduled to return on March 10th where the first job will be the election of a Ceann Comhairle (Chair). The task will then begin to elect a Taoiseach. A candidate is unlikely to be elected at the first attempt. After a candidate does emerge, the job will then begin to form a government. The process could be a protracted one, with another election being mooted in some quarters. From a market point of view, the uncertainty may contribute to a rise in sovereign spreads over the coming days, although we do not expect a dramatic move today given that this outcome was very much discussed prior to the election. Home… Page 4 29 Feb. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Market Data Top 10 Covered Companies Company Price Mkt Cap Absolute Relative to European Sector P/E (LC) (LCM) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 2016f 2017f Ryanair 14.03 19,200 0.2 -1.0 -1.9 -6.6 -1.3 -2.5 0.4 3.1 15.2 11.6 CRH 22.96 18,727 1.2 -0.1 -5.3 -14.0 -0.3 -1.7 -3.2 -5.1 14.7 11.9 AIB Group 6.55 17,888 -11.8 -9.0 35.9 -1.7 -13.2 -10.4 39.0 8.5 12.8 19.9 Kerry Group 79.49 13,974 3.6 10.1 8.5 4.2 2.1 8.3 11.0 14.9 24.1 21.2 IAG 5.41 10,997 -3.1 -0.8 -3.6 -11.4 -4.6 -2.4 -1.3 -2.2 6.7 5.3 HeidelbergCement 66.92 13,278 1.7 1.3 1.2 -11.5 0.2 -0.2 3.5 -2.4 12.2 11.6 Wolseley 36.88 9,591 1.6 2.4 8.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 6.3 3.1 15.1 13.4 Paddy Power Betfair 107.70 9,002 1.1 6.6 8.1 18.6 -0.0 3.7 6.3 22.4 35.1 28.3 Bank of Ireland 0.26 8,420 4.0 5.3 -16.1 -23.1 2.4 3.6 -14.2 -15.1 10.5 9.7 Mondi 12.82 6,225 -0.5 -3.0 10.5 -3.9 -2.0 -4.5 13.1 6.0 10.5 10.4 Indices ISEQ performance % Price 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 7,000 ISEQ 6,240.29 1.50 1.88 -2.15 -8.12 6,800 FTSE 100 6,096.01 1.38 2.45 3.12 -2.34 6,600 DAX 30 9,513.30 1.95 1.33 -3.15 -11.45 6,400 CAC 40 4,314.57 1.56 2.17 -0.97 -6.95 6,200 FTSE Eurofirst 300 1,305.00 1.59 1.55 -2.31 -9.22 6,000 Nasdaq 4,590.47 0.18 1.91 0.50 -8.33 S&P 500 1,948.05 -0.19 1.58 2.33 -4.69 5,800 Dow Jones 16,639.97 -0.34 1.51 2.92 -4.51 5,600 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Nikkei 225 16,188.41 0.30 1.39 -3.12 -14.95 Exchange Rates Current Px 1 day Px 1 Week Px Dec15 Avg Ytd Stg/€ 0.788 0.791 0.778 0.737 0.764 STOXX 600 performance US$/€ 1.093 1.103 1.111 1.086 1.097 CHF/€ 1.091 1.091 1.101 1.087 1.098 420 JPY/€ 124.480 124.325 125.254 130.676 127.875 400 Bonds 380 Yield 1 Day Yld 1 Wk Yld 1 Mth Yld 3 Mth 360 US 2 Yr 0.80 0.07 0.80 -0.05 -0.14 340
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